09/09/21

Climate Modelling

•  3rd year, SA Bachelor

Climate Sensitivity & Feedbacks

Textbook: Introduction to Climate Modelling (Thomas Stocker)

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Recall: Gaia Hypothesis

James Lovelock, 1970s
Biota co-evolves with their environment: biota might optimize
their abiotic environment by means of negative feedback

Abiotic factors Biotic factors feed back

determine biological to control abiotic
possibilities factors

e.g. T increase à sparser vegetation, more desertification à increase albedo à reduce

temperature (a negative feedback loop)

Earth can’t be understood without considering the role of life

à Daisy World model: a simple biospheric feedback model 2

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Daisy World – two species

Daisyworld as a feedback system

source: Andrew Ford

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Daisyworld as a feedback system

•  When planet is cold, any white
daisies are cooler than
surrounds, hinder their own
growth. Any black ones absorb
the sunlight, warm up their
surrounds, and enhance their
growth. In doing so they warm
up the whole planet.

•  When planet is hot, the reverse

happens, and white daisies
dominate.

•  The daisies, only with their albedo and birthrate, maintain the living planet's
temperature at a daisy-friendly 20-30 degrees when the solar input varies
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Climate Sensitivity & Feedbacks

q  Equilibrium climate sensitivity: ΔT2x àglobal temperature change resulting from a

doubling of the atm. CO2

à  ΔT2x serves to compare models.

à  In IPCC AR4 (2007)
§  Likely range (66%): 2–4.5°C.
§  Very unlikely (< 10%): smaller than 1.5°C
§  Most likely value: around 3°C.

q  ΔT2x is the result of complex processes and interactions in the atm. that affect
the radiation balance.
§  The contributions of the single processes as a response to the disturbance
à can be quantified by a feedback parameter λ (Wm-2K-1)
§  λ: the change in the radiation balance per change of the global mean
temperature

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Climate Sensitivity & Feedbacks

E.g. using the linearized EBM

(Eq.1)

where A is the short-wave radiation, B is the long-wave back-radiation, W is an

additional term of the radiation balance (e.g., effects of clouds, greenhouse gases, etc.),
ΔQ is a disturbance (often called forcing)

Expand Eq. (1) around the equilibrium temperature

(Eq.2)
Feedback parameter: total feedback àsum of the single feedbacks
à (Eq.3)

where is the sensitivity parameter (ºC/(W/m-2))

Climate Sensitivity & Feedbacks

For the two-layer model in the previous lecture

à Individual feedback parameters

(Eq.4) Model with two radiating layers

If albedo is not temperature-dependent; and the contribution of high clouds is negligible

à the feedback parameter of long-wave radiation without other feedbacks,

in particular without the water vapour feedback
à  This is referred to as the Planck feedback (λP): negative feedback
à  Latest estimates from various climate models yield λP=-3.21± 0.04 (W/m2/ K-1)

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Climate Sensitivity & Feedbacks

Recall: EBM-1D
1. Ice-albedo feedback

Seller & Budyko (1969)

kt=3.81Wm-2°C -1
The temperature-dependence of the A=204.0Wm-2 ,B=2.17Wm-2°C -1
albedo shall be parameterized in
the EBM; e.g.

α=0.3 if T >283 K; α=0.85 if T < 222 K 9

Climate Sensitivity & Feedbacks

1. Ice-albedo feedback

α=0.3 if T >283 K; α=0.85 if T < 222 K

à Positive feedback
Latest estimation:

(6)

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Climate Sensitivity & Feedbacks

2. Water vapor feedback

§  The water vapour feedback à the most important feedback in the climate system
because water vapour is the primary natural greenhouse gas.
§  A warm atm. can hold more water vapour than a cold atm.
§  These additional water molecules in the warm atm. cause an enhancement of the
natural greenhouse effect by increased absorption of long-wave radiation.

§  Latest estimates from various climate models à

à The presence of water vapour in the atm. doubles the climate sensitivity

Climate Sensitivity & Feedbacks

3. Cloud feedback

Cloud feedback loops

§  Low clouds affect short-wave radiation via albedo
§  High clouds affect long-wave irradiance
à Effect of clouds can be warming or cooling?

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Climate Sensitivity & Feedbacks

3. Cloud feedback
For the two-layer model in the previous lecture

Assume c is not temperature-dependent & c~0.6

à
Model with two radiating layers

à An increase in the sensitivity

§  The 2-layer EBM is not a realistic model.

§  Latest estimates
à

Latest confirmation à the total cloud feedback is positive.

A warming by 1ºC leads to a total additional forcing (change in cloud cover, structure of
the clouds, albedo and height of clouds) of about 0.7Wm-2.

Climate Sensitivity & Feedbacks

4. Lapse rate feedback
§  Warming also modifies the vertical structure of the atm.
§  This leads to lapse rate feedback
§  The lapse rate is defined as

§  The lapse rate strongly

depends on the location.
§  In the tropics, a warming leads
to an increased convective
activity: water vapour rises and
condensates at high altitudes.
à  a stronger warming in the high layers of the atm. which is supported by the additional
greenhouse effect due to the increased concentration of water vapour there
à  The lapse rate decreases
§  In the mid-latitudes, horizontal circulation associated with high- & low-pressure
systems dominates à the vertical movement is less pronounced, the warming is
limited to layers close to the surface à an enhanced lapse rate
§  Regard to Tsurf, the lapse rate feedback is negative in the tropics & positive in the
mid-latitudes. For the global average, the tropics dominate; latest estimates à

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Climate Sensitivity & Feedbacks

5. Summary regarding feedbacks

Climate Sensitivity & Feedbacks

5. Summary regarding feedbacks

The radiative forcing associated with changes in the atmospheric concentration

of CO2 is given by Myhre et al. (1998):

(Eq.4)
à

From (Eq.3) à

This is very close to the best estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity ΔT2x

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Climate Sensitivity & Feedbacks

5. Summary regarding feedbacks

§  Ice-albedo feedback
§  Lapse-rate feedback
§  Cooling of the
stratosphere?

Mean of 21 AOGCM models which were used for IPCC (2007).

The zonal average temperature change in the atmosphere over the last 20 years of the
21st century for the A1B scenario is shown.

Practice #5 with Python

§  The Ice-Albedo Feedback Model (source: Tatsam Garg, Ashoka University)

https://tropicsu.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Tutorial-Ice-Albedo-Feedback-
Model.pdf

§  *** Bonus: to incorporate similar analysis in order to obtain the run-away affect
in the Daisy world model
§  Requirements:
•  To understand: the Run-away ice-albedo effect
•  Students need to fully understand the discussed mechanism and be able to explain
and discuss on the obtained figures

Acknowledgement: Tatsam Garg!

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