CIVL1180

Monitoring Changing Climate From Space

Prof. Hui Su
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

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01 November, 2023
 Brief Review of Last Class
• Basics of climate science
ØComponents and phenomena in the climate
system
ØBasics of radiative forcing
ØGlobally averaged energy budget
ØRadiative Forcing and energy transport by
atmosphere
ØAtmospheric circulation

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 Ocean circulation Figure 2.16

Sea surface temperature (SST)

climatology - January

Sea surface temperature

climatology - July

Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP 3

 Figure 2.16
§ SST is warmest in tropics;
approaches freezing in higher
latitudes ( -2 C); strongest SST
gradient occurs at midlatitudes.

§ SST is not perfectly symmetric about

the Equator.

§ Variations in longitude. e.g., eastern

Pacific is relatively cold.

§ Equatorial cold tongue: along the

equator in the Pacific.
• maintained by upwelling of cold
water from below. 4
Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP
 Figure 2.16
§ Rainfall over oceans has a close,
though not perfect, relationship to
SST pattern (compare to Figure
2.13).
• in the tropics it tends to rain over
SST that is warmer than SST in
neighboring regions.

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Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP 5
 Figure 2.17
Ocean surface currents

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Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP
 Ocean surface currents (cont.)

§ Along the Equator, currents are in direction of the wind

(easterly winds drive westward currents [note terminology!]

§ Off the Equator, currents need not be in the direction of the

wind. Currents set by change of the zonal wind with latitude
and Coriolis force (chap. 3). (“zonal" = east-west direction)
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Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP
§ Just slightly off the Equator, small component of the current
moves poleward; important because it diverges Þ produces
upwelling (chap. 3).

§ Circulation systems known as gyres. In the subtropical gyres,

currents flow slowly equatorward in most of basin.
Compensating return flow toward poles occurs in narrow, fast
western boundary currents (Gulf stream, the Kuroshio, Brazil
currents). Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP
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 Ocean vertical structure Figure 2.18

§ Ocean surface warmed by

solar radiation Þ lighter
water over denser water
(“stable stratification”).
• solar radiation warms
upper 10m. Turbulence near
surface mixes warming
downward.
• mixing driven by wind-
generated turbulence and
instabilities of surface
currents.
• air temperature just above
surface slightly colder but
close to SST
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Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP
 Ocean vertical structure (cont.) Figure 2.18

§ At thermocline, any mixing

of denser fluid below into
lighter fluid above requires
work Þ limits the mixing.
§ Deep waters tend to
remain cold
• on long time scales, import
of cold waters from a few
sinking regions near the
poles maintains cold
temperatures.

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Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge
 Figure 2.19
The thermohaline circulation

§ Salinity (concentration of salt) affects ocean density in addition

to temperature.
§ Waters dense enough to sink: cold and salty
§ Thermohaline circulation: deep overturning circulation
(thermal for the temperature, haline from the greek word for
salt, hals). Also termed the Meridional Overturning Circulation.
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Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP
 Figure 2.19
The thermohaline circulation (cont.)

§ Deep water formation in a few small regions that produce densest

water
• e.g., off Greenland, Labrador Sea, regions around Antarctica.
§ Small regions control temperature of deep ocean Þ potential
sensitivity.
• likely player in past climate variations. 12
Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP
 Land surface processes
Land surface impacts on physical climate; main effects:
§ Land does not transport or store heat significantly.
§ produces land-ocean contrast.
§ Albedo depends on vegetation, snow, ice, & sometimes on surface
characteristics (e.g., Sahara Desert has a bright sandy surface).
Annual average albedo (next slide) is highest where there is year-
round snow/ice cover; intermediate values typically from winter
snow/summer vegetation; rainforests low albedo.
§ Evapotranspiration and surface hydrology.
§ "soil moisture" in subsurface layers of soil
§ catchment basins, lakes, rivers...
§ evapotranspiration: vegetation actively regulates moisture loss.
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Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge
 Figure 2.20
Annual Average Albedo

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Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP
 Figure 2.21a
The carbon cycle

follows Sarmiento and Gruber, 2002, Physics Today

Values based on Denman et al., 2007, IPCC; format
Carbon transfers among reservoirs without human perturbation
§ 1 Petagram (Pg)=1 trillion kg=1 billion metric tons=1gigaton (Gt);
keeping track of the mass of carbon atoms in both organic and
inorganic (e.g., carbonate, bicarbonate, CO2) compounds
§ Ocean 38,000 PgC; 3 PgC as marine biota; upper ocean 900 PgC
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Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge
 Figure 2.21a, The carbon cycle, cont’d

follows Sarmiento and Gruber, 2002, Physics Today

Values based on Denman et al., 2007, IPCC; format
§ land biomass reservoir (vegetation, soils and vegetation detritus such
as leaf litter) ~2300 PgC; preindustrial atm.<600 PgC
§ coal, oil and natural gas resources, est. > 4,000 PgC, much larger if
nonconventional sources like tar sands are included
§ Dark arrows = Gross fluxes; Photosynthesis versus respiration; CO2
dissolved in some ocean surface regions, released in others
§ light arrows = net fluxes
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Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge
 Figure 2.21b
The carbon cycle

follows Sarmiento and Gruber, 2002, Physics Today

Values based on Denman et al., 2007, IPCC; format
§ Fossil fuels 6.4 PgC/yr (1990s) (incl. 0.1 PgC/yr cement production)
§ ~40% coal, 40% oil+derivatives (e.g., gasoline), 20% natural gas
§ 1.6 PgC/yr land-use change; e.g., deforestation, with replacement by agricultural
land with smaller carbon storage
§ 2002-11 avg: fossil fuels 8.3± 0.7 PgC/yr; land use 0.9
§ fossil fuel increase: 2002 7.0,…, 2011 9.5, 2012* 9.7 PgC/yr *prelim est. 2015 17
 Figure 2.21b, The carbon cycle, cont’d

follows Sarmiento and Gruber, 2002, Physics Today

Values based on Denman et al., 2007, IPCC; format
§ Based on 1990s data; anthropogenic emissions ~8 PgC/yr (6.4 fossil
fuels + cement, 1.6 land use change) (8.3+0.9=9.2 in 2002-11)
§ Fortunately, only ~ half remains in the atmosphere (time dependent)
§ increased atmospheric concentrations yield 2.2 PgC/yr increased
flux into ocean (2.4 in 2002-2011)
§ + 2.5 PgC/yr taken up by land vegetation (e.g., forest regrowth?
Details uncertain, estimated as residual; similar in 2002-2011)
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Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge
 Figure 2.21b, The carbon cycle, cont’d

follows Sarmiento and Gruber, 2002, Physics Today

Values based on Denman et al., 2007, IPCC; format
§ Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 rise by about 1 ppm for each 2.1
PgC that remains in the atmosphere (from # molecules per petagram of
carbon compared to # of molecules in the atmosphere)
§ So 8-2.2-2.5 = 3.3 PgC/yr = 1.6 ppm/year CO2 increase in atm. but this
is variable in time. For 2002-11: (9.2-2.4-2.5)/2.1=2.0ppm/yr.
§ Est. overall change from ~1750 to 1994: atm. +165 PgC, ocean +118
PgC, land changes complex, e.g. forest clearing/regrowth 19
Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP
 Figure 2.22
Fossil fuel emissions and increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Values are from Denman et al., 2007, IPCC; format follows

Sarmiento and Gruber , 2002, Physics Today
§ Fossil fuel emissions converted to CO2 concentration change if all
remained in the atmosphere (1 ppm for each 2.1 PgC); rising as
energy consumption increases (2.0ppm/yr incr. in 2002-11)
§ Actual rate of accumulation (change in concentration each year; all
positive = rising concentration, but variable rate of increase)
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Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP
 Figure 2.22 (cont.)

Values are from Denman et al., 2007, IPCC; format follows

Sarmiento and Gruber , 2002, Physics Today
§ Variations primarily due to land biosphere, e.g., droughts associated with El
Niño/southern oscillation
§ Anthropogenic land use change not separated due to estimation challenges year by
year ( e.g., deforestation versus regrowth)
§ Accumulation rate in atm. ~ 55% of fossil fuel emissions in recent decades avg.
Land+ocean not guaranteed to continue at 45%
§ slow deep ocean uptake leaves ~15-40% longer than 1000 years 21
Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge UP
§ For later reference: emissions sometimes given in gigatons of CO2/yr. In those
units, emissions differ by a factor of 3.66 x PgC/yr because it also counts the
weight of the two oxygen atoms.
§ (molecular weight of CO2 44.01)/(atomic weight of carbon 12.01)= 3.66
§ i.e. 12 gigatons of carbon in the fuel burned produces 44 gigatons of CO2.

§ For perspective:
§ 1 US gallon of gasoline yields about 9 kg of carbon dioxide
§ E.g., 1000 gallons/yr not unusual for personal vehicle (20,000 miles/20 mpg) gives
9 metric tons of CO2 from one person, just from driving

§ per capita CO2 emission each year*:

§ US 17.6 tons/person (2011; down from 19.2 in 2009); Canada 16
§ Germany, Japan ~9-10 tons; United Kingdom 7.8 (9.1 in 2008)
§ China, 6.1 tons per person (2011, was 4.7 in 2008); India 1.5 tons
§ Philippines 0.8, Nigeria 0.5, Rwanda 0.07, Chad 0.02, Mali 0.05…
§ World average ~4.6 tons per person (2011, 4.4 in 2008, climbing)
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* US Energy Information Administration data, 2015