My worst trade wasn’t as bad as I thought, it’s Beyond Belief!

(Vancouver, B.C., July 27, 2023) Tether USD (USDT-USD) is a Cryptocurrency – but it’s not your typical crypto coin like
Bitcoin, it’s a stablecoin which is tied to the value of the U.S. Dollar. In 2019, Tether surpassed Bitcoin to become the
most traded cryptocurrency in the world with a trading volume of $21 billion per day, 18% higher than Bitcoin. 1

When I ran my two algorithms against Tether-USD, I did not initially realize that it was tied to the U.S. dollar, so its very
low return performance was in stark contrast to the returns I was seeing in Avalanche, Solana, Dogecoin, Polkadot, Lido
Stacked ETH, Litecoin, BNB, Ethereum, XRP, Bitcoin, Polygon, Coinbase and Cardano. Algorithm-A results are shown in the
first chart and Algorithm-B in the second chart below.
I know the more volatile stocks do better with my algorithms and since Tether-USD was tied to the value of the U.S.
dollar I realized the results were reflecting those low percentage gain/loss trades were expected within forex (foreign
exchange) trading. I referred to this low result in the first paper I published on my algorithms: “Ironically one of the
lowest returns out of all 286 companies and cryptocurrencies was with Tether USD (USDT-USD) cryptocurrency which only
managed a 6.09% annual average return. The reason for this low return is that Tether USD is a stablecoin which is pegged
at the price of the U.S. Dollar and as such does not have the volatility of non-pegged cryptocurrencies.” See paper here:
This Could be the Biggest Discovery Ever in Economics: Predictable Stock Markets

Early in 2023 I met with my corporate attorney to discuss the algorithms and he suggested that I compare only the last
three years 2020-2022 with annualized results to properly compare the results with the top hedge funds in the world. I
had been annualizing the history of the results on the length of the company or cryptocurrency being public up to
January 1, 1992. This meant I needed to rerun the algorithm on each stock or cryptocurrency, this took about 3 weeks to
accomplish as a stock that dated back to 1992 has 4.1 million formulas for both algorithms. I bought a 24 core, 32
processor computer with 32 gigs of ram to speed up the back testing and wrote a few scripts for Excel to further speed
up the computations required, this script option became available in 2023 for business users of Microsoft Excel. My older
computer was a 2014 MacBook and while it could run the calculations, it could take many minutes to calculate one step
and the heat the processors produced was very high. Here’s the three year comparison results in the chart below.

Tether-USD annualized at 2.25% should not even be a notable but when we look at Algorithm-B that mark goes to 5.33%
annualized, still not very impressive in comparison with most of the stocks and cryptocurrencies in the chart. When we
look at the entire history of Tether with Algorithm-B we see it achieved 5.62% again, this doesn’t stand out other than
the fact that it gained every year in both long orders and short orders.
Algorithm B Trading
Nov. 2017-June 30, 2023
Algorithm B Trading
3 Years (2020-2022)
Actual Stock Year All Trading B Long Only B Short Only B
Actual Stock Year All Trading B Long Only B Short Only B Totals 31.68% 16.15% 15.53%
0.04% 2023 0.76% 0.40% 0.36%
-0.08% 2022 0.33% 0.13% 0.20% -0.08% 2022 0.33% 0.13% 0.20%
-0.17% 2021 1.54% 0.78% 0.76% -0.17% 2021 1.54% 0.78% 0.76%
0.08% 2020 14.13% 7.07% 7.06% 0.08% 2020 14.13% 7.07% 7.06%
-1.83% 2019 7.25% 3.34% 3.91%
0.64% 2018 6.70% 3.46% 3.24%
-0.18% 16.00% 7.98% 8.02%
0.40% 2017 0.98% 0.98%

-0.06% 5.33% 2.66% 2.67%

-0.93% Totals 31.68% 16.15% 15.53%
Annual % Return/Loss Row Below
-0.16% 5.62% 2.86% 2.75%
What is so impressive about Tether-USD is the 198% win/loss trade record with Algorithm-B. It won nearly twice as many
times as it lost on all long/short trades made over 5 years. Just to put this into perspective the probability of achieving
this by chance is 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%. The only reason it did
not preform better on my system is that I don’t leverage or compound any of the trades, so while I did win more trades
than lose by a substantial margin, an average gain on a winning trade of 0.5% and an average loss on a losing trade of -
0.3% does not produce large enough returns to compete with the other stocks and cryptocurrencies in these tables.
Avalanche-USD in comparison gained an average of 49% per winning trade and lost an average of -15% on every losing
trade with both my algorithms. Here’s a caveat, much of this is due to the meteoric rise of Avalanche-USD during 2021.

The chart below is like my initial chart that my corporate attorney said was not an accurate comparison between the top
hedge funds and my results as I annualized the entire history of each stock or cryptocurrency to their beginning as a
public company to a maximum date of January 1, 1992, whereas the hedge funds were only showing data from 2020-
2023 annualized. I have updated that initial chart below to include the first half of 2023 and the chart he recommended I
provide (on the previous page) where all comparisons are from an equal time period 2020, 2021 and 2022 and
annualized are very similar to the results on this chart below. I added a label for Tether-USD at the right of the chart, it
moved up one slot so now it’s not the worst performer as it was at the end of 2022 but is now second to worst.

The average length of time for a stock in this chart above is 18.27 Years.
Algorithm-A Longs/Shorts annualized averaged a 37.67% gain. Long orders only, Algorithm-A gained 33.50% annualized
Algorithm-B Longs/Shorts annualized averaged a 44.84% gain. Long orders only, Algorithm-B gained 36.75% annualized

The average length of time for a stock from the chart on Page-2 is 3 Years exactly for every stock or cryptocurrency.
Algorithm-A Longs/Shorts annualized averaged a 32.19% gain. Long orders only, Algorithm-A gained 30.38% annualized
Algorithm-B Longs/Shorts annualized averaged a 43.72% gain. Long orders only, Algorithm-B gained 35.81% annualized

My corporate attorney made a good point where the data analysis must be the same length of time for a proper
comparison between my algorithms and the top large hedge funds. The fact that both charts show a very similar set of
annualized returns for both algorithms means that this has been functioning not just over the previous three years but
over this entire period of 31.5 years and likely well beyond that self imposed starting point.
If this is correct, the markets are predictable, not efficient, and this is one of the biggest discoveries of our time. Tether’s
consistent win/loss results also demonstrates that this is not just good guess work or luck, it is a solid verifiable system.

These are simulated trades back tested on the historical stock market results, none of the trades are compounded or
leveraged, they are straight long/short trades. Brokerage fees and taxes are not considered in my back testing.

Below are my previous papers on these algorithms:

Part 1 This Could be the Biggest Discovery Ever in Economics: Predictable Stock Markets

Part 2 Can Artificial Intelligence Predict Individual Public Company Stock Movement

Part 3 Ghost Patterns Identified

Part 4 Beating the House - Casino Stock Correlation

Part 5 Winning the Powerball Jackpot 45 times in a row!

© Copyright 2023, Guy Cramer, All Rights Reserved.