Rainfall Zone E, B, D Harriss

Atlas 14 IDF Curves
Assistance with NOAA Atlas 14 Updates to the Harris

County Flood Control District Policy Criteria & Procedure
Manual (PCPM)
May 3, 2019
Memo
Date: Friday, May 03, 2019
Project: Assistance with NOAA Atlas 14 Updates to the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) Policy,
Criteria, and Procedure Manual (PCPM)
To: Craig Maske, P.E., CFM – Chief Planning Officer, HCFCD
From: Duane Barrett, PE, CFM – Water Resources Program Manager
Subject: NOAA Atlas 14 PCPM IDF Curves Update
Craig:
HDR has been tasked with developing updated, region-specific Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves and
coefficients for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 (Atlas 14) rainfall data recently
implemented for use in Harris County hydrologic studies. This technical memorandum presents the methodology and
results of the study, along with recommendations for future consideration.
The methodology followed a recommendation from the HCFCD Mapping, Assessment and Awareness Project
(MAAPnext) effort to divide the county into three hydrologic regions (Regions 1 through 3) and replace current, standard
rainfall amounts with Atlas 14 data. Figure 1 illustrates the boundaries of the rainfall regions as defined by the
MAAPnext effort.
Figure 1. Harris County Regional Watersheds
For each region, rainfall intensities were tabulated for the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year and 500-
year events by dividing Atlas 14 rainfall depths by duration (assumed to equal time of concentration). Since IDF curves
are primarily used for analysis and design, the study focused on 5 minute through 120 minute (2 hour) durations.
However, for consistency with current manuals, the resulting rainfall intensities for each region were plotted between
10 minute and 100 minute durations over the range of selected rainfall events. To develop the required coefficients,
Atlas 14 rainfall intensities are computed with a non-linear rainfall IDF relationship, simplified in the following equation
(also known as the power-law model):
1
𝑏
𝐼=
(𝑡𝑐 + 𝑑)𝑒
Equation 1. IDF Relationship Equation
where:
I = design rainfall intensity (inches/hour)
tc = time of concentration (minutes)
e, b and d = coefficients based on rainfall frequency-duration curves
The e, b and d coefficients were found using Solver, a Microsoft Excel add-in for regression modeling. Variable cells
were programed to return a set of numerical values once the objective cell value, in this case the sum of squared error
between Atlas 14 intensities and intensities computed using Equation 1, reached an optimal minimum value for each
rainfall event. As a general check, data trends between updated and current IDF curves and coefficients from the
Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) Rainfall IDF Coefficients for Texas spreadsheet (dated July 2016) were
compared with consistent results.
Generally, the Solver analysis yielded acceptable curve fits upon visual inspection, and sum of squared error values
indicated acceptable consistency between intensities directly computed from Atlas 14 data and Equation 1. As seen
in Figure 2, regional IDF curves computed directly from Atlas 14 rainfall data for the 100-year and 500-year events
exhibited moderate to significant departure from classic curvature above the 60 minute duration and were the most
challenging runs to optimize with Solver.
100.00
2 Year
Rainfall Intensity (in./hr.)
10.00 5 Year
10 Year
50 Year
1.00
25 Year
100 Year
500 Year
0.10
10 100
Duration (min.)
Figure 2. IDF Curves from Atlas 14 Rainfall Data (Region 1)
2
Figures 3 through 5 illustrate comprehensive IDF curves developed for each region in Harris County. Individual
graphs for Regions 1 through 3 are included as attachments to this memo.
2 Year
Rainfall Intensity (in/hr)
10.0 5 Year
10 Year
25 Year
50 Year
100 Year
500 Year
1.0
10 Duration (min) 100
Figure 3. Region 1 Updated IDF Curves, 2-year through 500-year
2 Year
10.0
5 Year
10 Year
25 Year
50 Year
100 Year
500 Year
1.0
10 100
Duration (min)
3
2 Year
10.0 5 Year
10 Year
25 Year
50 Year
100 Year
500 Year
1.0
10 100
Duration (min)
Table 1 presents the updated e, b and d coefficients used to develop the IDF curves for Regions 1 through 3, as
illustrated in Figures 3 through 5.
Table 1. Updated Rainfall IDF Coefficients for Harris County
50 % AEP 20 % AEP 10 % AEP 4 % AEP 2 % AEP 1 % AEP 0.2 % AEP

Coefficient
2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 25-Year 50-Year 100-Year 500-Year
Region 1
e 0.7372 0.7058 0.6819 0.6446 0.6170 0.5870 0.5111
b (in.) 48.27 51.78 54.26 54.97 54.84 53.93 50.89
d (min.) 9.30 8.19 7.44 6.27 5.45 4.53 2.69
Region 2
e 0.7263 0.7051 0.6752 0.6397 0.6166 0.5857 0.5129
b (in.) 47.25 54.09 55.26 56.72 57.94 56.68 54.26
d (min.) 8.94 8.34 7.30 6.12 5.47 4.46 2.72
Region 3
e 0.7244 0.6900 0.6623 0.6294 0.6096 0.5797 0.5196
b (in.) 48.35 52.32 54.68 57.79 61.00 60.66 62.17
d (min.) 9.07 7.88 6.96 5.89 5.46 4.44 2.95
AEP - annual exceedance probability
IDF curves and coefficients presented herein provide the required consistency with Atlas 14 rainfall data for PCPM
updates, based on a combination of meeting acceptable standards for statistical analysis and satisfactory visual
inspection.
4
Attachment – IDF Curve Fits, Regions 1 – 3
5
REGION 1
10.0
ATLAS 14 2YR
ATLAS 14 2YR FIT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)
Region 1 IDF Curve Fit, 2-year

10.0
ATLAS 14 5YR
ATLAS 14 5YR FIT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)
6
10.0
ATLAS 14 10YR
ATLAS 14 10YR FIT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)

10.0
ATLAS 14 25YR
ATLAS 14 25YR FIT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)
7
10.0
ATLAS 14 50YR
ATLAS 14 50YR FIT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)

10.0
ATLAS 14 100YR
ATLAS 14 100YR FIT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)
8
10.0
ATLAS 14 500YR
ATLAS 14 500YR FIT
1.0
10 100
Duration (min)
9
REGION 2
10.0
ATLAS 14 2YR
ATLAS 14 2YR FIT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)

10.0
ATLAS 14 5YR
ATLAS 14 5YR FIT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)
10
10.0
ATLAS 14 10YR
ATLAS 14 10YR FIT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)

10.0
ATLAS 14 25YR
ATLAS 14 25YR FIT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)
11
10.0
ATLAS 14 50YR
ATLAS 14 50YR FIT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)

10.0
ATLAS 14 100YR
ATLAS 14 100YR FIT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)
12
10.0
ATLAS 14 500YR
ATLAS 14 500YR FIT
1.0
10 100
Duration (min)
13
REGION 3
10.0
ATLAS 14 2YR
1.0 ATLAS 14 2YR FIT
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)
10.0
ATLAS 14 5YR
1.0 ATLAS 14 5YR PLOT
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)
14
10.0
ATLAS 14 10YR
ATLAS 14 10YR PLOT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)

10.0
ATLAS 14 25YR
ATLAS 14 25YR PLOT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)
15
10.0
ATLAS 14 50YR
ATLAS 14 50YR PLOT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)

10.0
ATLAS 14 100YR
ATLAS 14 100YR PLOT
1.0
0.1
10 100
Duration (min)
16
10.0
ATLAS 14 500YR
ATLAS 14 500YR PLOT
1.0
10 100
Duration (min)
17

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Atlas 14 IDF Curves

Assistance with NOAA Atlas 14 Updates to the Harris

Subject: NOAA Atlas 14 PCPM IDF Curves Update

Figure 1. Harris County Regional Watersheds

Figure 2. IDF Curves from Atlas 14 Rainfall Data (Region 1)

Figure 3. Region 1 Updated IDF Curves, 2-year through 500-year

Figure 4. Region 2 Updated IDF Curves, 2-year through 500-year

Figure 5. Region 3 Updated IDF Curves, 2-year through 500-year

50 % AEP 20 % AEP 10 % AEP 4 % AEP 2 % AEP 1 % AEP 0.2 % AEP

Region 1 IDF Curve Fit, 2-year

Region 1 IDF Curve Fit, 5-year

Region 1 IDF Curve Fit, 10-year

Region 1 IDF Curve Fit, 25-year

Region 1 IDF Curve Fit, 50-year

Region 1 IDF Curve Fit, 100-year

Region 1 IDF Curve Fit, 500-year

Region 2 IDF Curve Fit, 2-year

Region 2 IDF Curve Fit, 5-year

Region 2 IDF Curve Fit, 10-year

Region 2 IDF Curve Fit, 25-year

Region 2 IDF Curve Fit, 50-year

Region 2 IDF Curve Fit, 100-year

Region 2 IDF Curve Fit, 500-year

Region 3 IDF Curve Fit, 2-year

Region 3 IDF Curve Fit, 5-year

Region 3 IDF Curve Fit, 10-year

Region 3 IDF Curve Fit, 25-year

Region 3 IDF Curve Fit, 50-year

Region 3 IDF Curve Fit, 100-year

Region 3 IDF Curve Fit, 500-year

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