Decision to change lane

▪ Probability that driver ‘n’ at time ‘t’ decides to perform LC can be

modeled using discrete choice models like binary logit model, etc.

1
𝑃𝑡 𝐿𝐶𝑖 =
1 + exp(−𝑥 𝑡 𝑛 .𝛽 )

Where
𝑥 𝑡 𝑛 = explanatory variables effecting decision to change lane
𝛽 = coefficient related to the variable
 Choice of target lane
▪ Probability that driver ‘n’ at time ‘t’ selects target lane ‘i’ can be
modeled using discrete choice models like binary logit model etc.

1
𝑃𝑡 𝑇𝐿𝑖 = 𝑇𝐿𝑖 𝑇𝐿
1 + exp −(𝑥 𝑡 𝑛 .𝛽
𝑖)

Where
𝑇𝐿𝑖
𝑥 𝑡 𝑛 = explanatory variables effecting selection of respective target lane ‘i’
TLi = target lane available for driver ‘n’ , choice set (i = {Adjacent lanes
available to driver ‘n’ at the time of lane change})
𝛽 =coefficient related to the variables
 Gap acceptance
▪ Lane changing is possible only if both lead and lag gaps are acceptable

▪ Drivers have minimum lead and lag gap, named as lead critical gap and lag
critical gap and vary with respect to individual and traffic conditions

▪ Lead gap is the gap between the subject vehicle and lead vehicle in the
target lane

▪ Lead gap is the gap between the subject vehicle and lag vehicle in the
target lane
Traffic direction

Lag Lead
vehicle Target lane
vehicle

Subject vehicle Leader

Lag gap Lead gap

Lane Changing Process

3
 Gap acceptance
▪ Critical gaps are stochastic in nature and assumed to log-normal
distribution

▪ Critical gap for driver ‘n’ at time ‘t’ is assumed as

𝑔 𝑔
𝐺𝑐𝑟𝑖, 𝑛 = exp( 𝑥 𝑡 𝑛. β + α. 𝛾𝑛 + ϵn )

Where,
𝑔
𝑥(𝑡)𝑛 = Explanatory variables affecting the critical gap for the nth driver at time t
𝛽 = Parameters of explanatory variables
α= Parameter of driver specific random term, 𝛾𝑛
ϵn = random error term of nth driver with N (0,2)

▪ Lead critical gap and lag critical gas can be expressed as:
𝑔 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑 . β𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑
𝐺𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑_𝑐𝑟𝑖, 𝑛 = exp( 𝑥 𝑡 𝑛 + α𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑 . 𝛾𝑛𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑 + ϵn )

𝑔 𝑙𝑎𝑔 𝑙𝑎𝑔 𝑙𝑎𝑔

𝐺𝑙𝑎𝑔_𝑐𝑟𝑖, 𝑛 = exp( 𝑥 𝑡 𝑛 .β + α𝑙𝑎𝑔 . 𝛾𝑛 + ϵn )
 Gap acceptance
▪ Considering that the probability of lead gap acceptance [p(lead)]
and lag gap acceptance [p(lag)] as two independent events,
probability that the lead and lag gaps are accepted is

p(gap) = p(lead) × p(lag)

𝑔 𝑔 𝑔 𝑔
= p(𝐺𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑_𝑎𝑣𝑎𝑖, 𝑛 ≥𝐺𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑_𝑐𝑟𝑖, 𝑛 ) ×p(𝐺𝑙𝑎𝑔_𝑎𝑣𝑎𝑖, 𝑛 ≥𝐺𝑙𝑎𝑔_𝑐𝑟𝑖, 𝑛 )

𝑔 𝑔 𝑔
=p[log(𝐺𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑_𝑎𝑣𝑎𝑖, 𝑛 )≥log(𝐺𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑_𝑐𝑟𝑖, 𝑛 )] × p(log(𝐺𝑙𝑎𝑔_𝑎𝑣𝑎𝑖, 𝑛 )
𝑔
≥ log(𝐺𝑙𝑎𝑔_𝑐𝑟𝑖, 𝑛 )]

𝑔 𝑔 𝑙𝑎𝑔 𝑙𝑎𝑔 𝑙𝑎𝑔

log(𝐺𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑_𝑎𝑣𝑎𝑖, 𝑛 )−𝑥 𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑
𝑛 .β𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑 −α𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑 . 𝛾𝑛𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑 log(𝐺𝑙𝑎𝑔_𝑎𝑣𝑎𝑖, 𝑛 )−𝑥 𝑡 𝑛 .β −α𝑙𝑎𝑔 . 𝛾𝑛
P(gap) = 𝛷 ( ) × 𝛷( )
𝜎𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝜎𝑙𝑎𝑔

Where, 𝛷[]=Generalized cumulative standard normal distribution

Lane Changing Process including classification of lane change

Decision to
change lane

Selection of
Target Lane

Lane change
type

Gap
Acceptance

Framework of Lane change Process

 Classification of Lane Change Types
▪ Free lane change – there was no noticeable change in the relative gap between
the target follower and the target leader suggesting that the subject vehicle
caused no interaction between the target follower and the subject vehicle (Hidas
2002)

7
Source: Hidas (2005)
 Classification of Lane Change Types
▪ Forced lane change – gap between the target follower and the target leader was
either constant or decreasing before the entry point and increases after the entry of
the subject vehicle suggesting that the subject vehicle forced the target follower to
slow down and increase gap

8
Source: Hidas (2005)
 Classification of Lane Change Types
▪ Cooperative lane change – gap between the target leader and target follower is
increasing before the entry point of subject vehicle and starts to decrease
afterwards suggesting that the target follower slowed down to give way to the
subject vehicle.

9
Source: Hidas (2005)
 Case study
Lane changing models for highways in homogeneous traffic
conditions ( Udaykiran, M 2021)

▪ Objective of this study is to model the lane changing process of

vehicles on highways in homogeneous traffic conditions with the
following sub-objectives:

✓ To identify the parameters influencing the three sequential steps of

lane changing process, such as decision to change lane, selection of
target lane, and selection of a type of lane change

✓ To model the choice of decision to change lane and selection of

target lane using influencing parameters

✓ To classify and model the type of lane change using influencing

parameters

10
 Case study
▪ Data used in the study (Krajewski et al. 2018)

✓ A highway drone dataset on German highways (highD dataset) is used

✓ 60 recordings , average length of 17 minutes (16.5 hours in total) covering a

road segment of approximately 420 m were made at six separate locations

✓ Recordings covers around 1,10,500 vehicles with each vehicle visible for a
median of 13.6 seconds

✓ Trajectory of each vehicle is automatically extracted, including vehicle type,

size, and maneuvers using computer vision algorithms

Six different data collection locations 11

Data collection using Drones
 Case study

Overall methodological framework of the study 12

 Case study
▪ This study considers the influencing variables with respect to the subject
vehicle and its surrounding vehicle

▪ Intention to change lanes (either yes or no) and the selection of TL (either
left lane or right lane) are binary variables

▪ Decision to change lane and selection of target lane are modeled using
binary logistic regression model (logit model)

Subject vehicle and its surrounding vehicles involved in lane changing process 13
 Case study
Lane change window

✓ It was observed that when the subject vehicle moves laterally, the lateral
velocity also increases

✓ Lateral velocity is almost zero at the initiation and completion points of LC

✓ Single lane changes are considered

✓ 202 lane changes are identified

Lateral velocity v/s Frame number 14

 Case study
Decision to change lane

▪ Influencing variables:
✓ Type of subject vehicle (e.g., Car, Truck)
✓ Type of front vehicle (current lane)
✓ Speeds of vehicles
✓ Lateral distance between the subject vehicle and the front vehicle

▪ A MATLAB code was written to extract these parameters

▪ All the variables were extracted at the time of lane change initiation

▪ Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) test was used to check for multi-collinearity
between parameters (greater than 10 represents high collinearity)

Variance inflation factor values for the decision to change lane stage

15
 Case study
Selection of target lane

▪ Influencing variables :
✓ Speeds of subject vehicle, lead and lag vehicles
✓ Density in target lane
✓ Lead and lag gaps
✓ time to collision between subject and front vehicle
✓ Time to collision between lag and subject vehicle

▪ All the variables were extracted at the time of lane change initiation

▪ VIF test was used to check for multi-collinearity between parameters

(greater than 10 represents high collinearity)

Variance inflation factor values for the selection of target lane stage

16
 Case study
Binary logit model for decision to change lane

▪ With the subject vehicle being a car and the front vehicle being a car there
is 29% less chance and 56% less chance to change lane over truck

▪ Logit model shows that the increase in subject vehicle velocity increases
decision to change lane (12.7%)

▪ As and when there is a unit increase in front vehicle velocity, the chance of
lane change decreases by 6%

▪ When there is a unit increase in lateral distance between SV and front

vehicle, the lane change decreases by 84%
Results of the decision to change lane at 95% confidence interval Odds ratio for each variable

17
 Case study
Binary logit model for selection of target lane

▪ Following four variables:

✓ Density in target lane
✓ Lead gap
✓ Time to collision b/w subject and front vehicle
✓ Time to collision b/w subject and lag vehicle

Results of the decision to change lane at 95% confidence interval

18
 Case study
Binary logit model for selection of target lane

▪ When there is an increase in one unit of subject vehicle velocity, the probability
of selecting the right lane is doubled over selecting the left lane

▪ When there is one unit increase in both lead and the lag vehicle velocity, the
probability of selecting the right lane is decreased by 21% and 41%, respectively

▪ The probability of selecting the right lane is not changing even when there is an
increase in the lag gap

Odds ratio for each variable

19
 Case study
Decision tree model for classification of lane change

▪ Lane changes were classified into free, forced, and co-operative by

using gap variations observed between lead and the lag vehicles
✓ At the initiation of lane change process
✓ During the lane change process
✓ At the completion of lane change process

▪ A decision tree model (ML technique) was used to validate the type of
lane changes obtained through a logical framework

▪ 45 free lane changes, 42 co-operative lane changes and 115 forced lane
changes; a total of 202 lane changes were extracted

▪ Overall accuracy of the decision tree model was 72.8%

20
 Case study

Gap between lead and lag vehicle at lane change initiation

(LCI gap )

Gap between lead and lag vehicle during lane change (LC gap )

Gap between lead and lag vehicle at lane change completion

(LCC gap )

G1=LCI gap – LC gap

G2=LC gap – LCC gap

Flowchart for classification of lane change

21
Free lane change classification

22
 Case study

Forced lane change classification

23
Co-operative lane change

24