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KULLIYAH OF ECONOMIC AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCES

MGT 3010 DECISION SCIENCE

SECTION 1

ASSIGNMENT:
FORECASTING
TITLE:
KERETAPI TANAH MELAYU BERHAD
(KTMB)

INSTRUCTOR:
SIR RAFIKUL ISLAM
GROUP MEMBERS:
SITI MASHITAH BT. MUSTAPHA 0928576
NUR FADHILAH BT. CHE HUSIN 0927072
SYAHINIZ TASNIN BT. SHUKRIE 0923152
NURUL IZZAH BT. ZULKHAIRI 0921796

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TABLE OF CONTENT

NO CONTENT PAGE
1 CASE PROBLEM 2-3
2 TIME SERIES SMOOTHING METHOD 4-8
i) SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
ii) WEIGHED MOVING AVERAGE
iii) EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
3 TIME SERIES TREND PROJECTION 9-10
4 TREND PROJECTION WITH SEASONAL 10-15
ADJUSTMENT
5 RECOMMENDATION 16
6 APPENDIX 17-25

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CASE PROBLEM: FORESCASTING

Keretapi Tanah Melayu Berhad (KTMB) is a private limited company, incorporated

and domiciled in Malaysia. The company is wholly owned by the Minister of Finance
Incorporated, a corporate body established in Malaysia. The principal activities of KTMB are
to operate the railway transportation and the provision of related railway services in
Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore. The company operates these activities pursuant to a
licence issued by the Minister of Transport.

KTMB began its first operation on a 12.8 km stretch between Taiping and Port Weld
in 1885. Today, KTMB’s rail network spans 1,661 km from Padang Besar (North) to
Singapore (South) and to Tumpat (East). KTMB is principally involved in the business of rail
transportation – operating, maintaining and managing the system to serve its main business
segments. However, KTMB also acts as the manager for railway property vested with the
Federal Land Commissioner and the Railway Asset Corporation and as the Project Manager
cum Adviser to the Government for Government funded railway related infrastructure
projects. In addition, KTMB through its subsidiaries and associate companies has business
interests in parcel distribution, haulage, property, car parks, cargo terminals and fibre optic
telecommunications.

KTMB has always been the nation’s established player in the logistic industry,
moving passengers, goods and services throughout the railway network in Peninsular
Malaysia and Singapore. Its rail network strategically links and helps to develop the industrial
growth centres in the hinterland to the seaports such as Penang Port, Port Klang, Port of
Tanjung Pelepas and Tanjung Pagar. It also connects cross-border movements of freight
between Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand.

En. Mohd. Salleh Abdullah, the Managing Director of KTMB remarked,“KTMB

continues to focus on providing safe, efficient and reliable integrated rail services with
greatly improved services for both passengers and goods. KTMB is committed to becoming a
respected and significant total land transport solution service provider.” In this connection,
KTMB has pursued strategies in its core competency areas and decided to develop a system
that enables them to forecast the number of passenger for every months up to one year. This
table below shows that the number of passengers for the year 2009 & 2010 that have been
complied.

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Table: Number of passengers for 1st Year and 2nd Year

NUMBER OF PASSENGERS
MONTH 1st Year 2nd Year
January 3601 3810
February 3590 3927
March 3225 3544
April 3199 3605
May 4044 4202
June 4128 4432
July 4228 4640
August 4316 4677
September 3110 3560
October 3890 4122
November 3746 4037
December 4012 4414

Managerial Report

Perform an analysis of the number of passengers for the KTM Berhad. Prepare a report for
Mohd Salleh Abdullah that summarizes your findings, forecasts and recommendations. In
clued the following:

1. Develop time series smoothing method and determine a forecast for the following
year. Consider smoothing constant of α = 0.1
i. Simple moving average (s.m.a)
ii. Weighted moving average(w.m.a)
iii. Exponential smoothing

Based on the above findings, which method provides the better forecast?

2. Time series trend projection

3. An analysis of the seasonality of the data. Indicate the seasonal indexes for each
month and comment on the high seasonal and low seasonal number of passenger.
4. Recommendations on how KTMB can improve their services in the future.

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ANSWER

Question 1

i) Calculation of simple moving average (s.m.a) forecasts

We choose n=3.

Year Month Actual Data S.M.A Forecast Forecast Error Squared Forecast Error
January 3601 - - -
February 3590 - - -
March 3225 - - -
April 3199 3472 -273 74529
May 4044 3338 706 498436
1 June 4128 3489.333333 638.6666667 407895.1111
July 4228 3790.333333 437.6666667 191552.1111
August 4316 4133.333333 182.6666667 33367.11111
September 3110 4224 -1114 1240996
October 3890 3884.666667 5.333333333 28.44444444
November 3746 3772 -26 676
December 4012 3582 430 184900
January 3810 3882.666667 -72.66666667 5280.444444
February 3927 3856 71 5041
March 3544 3916.333333 -372.3333333 138632.1111
April 3605 3760.333333 -155.3333333 24128.44444
May 4202 3692 510 260100
June 4432 3783.666667 648.3333333 420336.1111
2 July 4640 4079.666667 560.3333333 313973.4444
August 4677 4424.666667 252.3333333 63672.11111
September 3560 4583 -1023 1046529
October 4122 4292.333333 -170.3333333 29013.44444
November 4037 4119.666667 -82.66666667 6833.777778
December 4414 3906.333333 507.6666667 257725.4444

MSE for s.m.a = 247792.6243

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Graph of passenger numbers and 3 month moving average

5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

Actual Data 3601 3590 3225 S.M.A Forecast - - -

ii) Calculation of w.m.a. forecasts

A weighted moving average involves selecting different weights for each data values as the forecast.
For KTMB, we choose 3 for the most recent data, 2 for middle one and 1 for the oldest data.

Year Month Actual Data W.M.A Forecast Forecast Error Squared Forecast Error
January 3601 - - -
February 3590 - - -
March 3225 - - -
April 3199 3409.333333 -210.3333333 44240.11111
May 4044 3272.833333 771.1666667 594698.0278
June 4128 3625.833333 502.1666667 252171.3611
1 July 4228 3945.166667 282.8333333 79994.69444
August 4316 4164 152 23104
September 3110 4255.333333 -1145.333333 1311788.444
October 3890 3698.333333 191.6666667 36736.11111
November 3746 3701 45 2025
December 4012 3688 324 104976
January 3810 3903 -93 8649
February 3927 3866.666667 60.33333333 3640.111111
March 3544 3902.166667 -358.1666667 128283.3611
April 3605 3716 -111 12321
May 4202 3638.333333 563.6666667 317720.1111

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June 4432 3893.333333 538.6666667 290161.7778

2 July 4640 4217.5 422.5 178506.25
August 4677 4497.666667 179.3333333 32160.44444
September 3560 4623.833333 -1063.833333 1131741.361
October 4122 4112.333333 9.666666667 93.44444444
November 4037 4027.166667 9.833333333 96.69444444
December 4414 3985.833333 428.1666667 183326.6944

MSE for w.m.a= 225544.4762

Graph of passenger numbers and 3 month moving average

5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

Actual Data 3601 3590 3225 W.M.A Forecast - - -

Exponential smoothing uses a weighted average of past time series vales as the forecast; it is a
special case of the weighted moving average in which we select only one weight that is the weight
for the most recent observation.

iii) Exponential smoothing method

Formula:

𝐹𝑡+1 = α𝑌𝑡 + (1 − α)𝐹𝑡

Where 𝐹𝑡+1 =forecast of the time series for period t+1

𝑌𝑡 = actual value of the time series in period t

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𝐹𝑡 = forecast of the time series for period t

α = smoothing constant ( 0≤α≤1)

α=0.1

Exponential
smoothing Squared Forecast
Year Month Actual Data Forecasts (α=0.1) Forecast Error Error
January 3601 3601 - -
February 3590 3601 -11 121
March 3225 3599.9 -374.9 140550.01
April 3199 3562.41 -363.41 132066.8281
May 4044 3526.069 517.931 268252.5208
June 4128 3577.8621 550.1379 302651.709
1 July 4228 3632.87589 595.12411 354172.7063
August 4316 3692.388301 623.611699 388891.5511
September 3110 3754.749471 -644.7494709 415701.8802
October 3890 3690.274524 199.7254762 39890.26584
November 3746 3710.247071 35.75292857 1278.271901
December 4012 3713.822364 298.1776357 88909.90244
January 3810 3743.640128 66.35987214 4403.632631
February 3927 3750.276115 176.7238849 31231.3315
March 3544 3767.948504 -223.9485036 50152.93225
April 3605 3745.553653 -140.5536532 19755.32943
May 4202 3731.498288 470.5017121 221371.8611
June 4432 3778.548459 653.4515409 426998.9163
2 July 4640 3843.893613 796.1063868 633785.3791
August 4677 3923.504252 753.4957481 567755.8425
September 3560 3998.853827 -438.8538267 192592.6812
October 4122 3954.968444 167.031556 27899.54069
November 4037 3971.6716 65.32840039 4267.799897
December 4414 3978.20444 435.7955603 189917.7704

MSE for exponential smoothing= 195766.0723

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Graph of Actual and Forecast number of passengers with

Smoothing Constant α = 0.1
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

Actual Data Exponential smoothing Forecasts (α=0.1)

α MSE
0.1 195766.0723
0.2 182994.8148
0.3 184642.062
0.4 189054.8398
0.5 193950.405
0.6 199063.5636
0.7 204798.795
0.8 211935.711
0.9 221508.49
1.0 234735.087

Smoothing Methods MSE

Simple Moving Average 247792.6243
Weighted Moving
Average 225544.4762
Exponential Smoothing 234735.087

Thus, the best smoothing methods solution is weighted moving average since it has lowest Mean
Squared Error (MSE) that is 225544.4762.

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Question 2

TIME SERIES TREND PROJECTION FOR THE NO OF PASSENGERS OF KTMB

FOR 2nd Year

t = no of months

Yt = actual value of the time series in period t

t Yt tYt 𝒕𝟐

1 3810 3810 1
2 3927 7854 4
3 3544 10632 9
4 3605 14420 16
5 4202 21010 25
6 4432 26592 36
7 4640 32480 49
8 4677 37416 64
9 3560 32040 81
10 4122 41220 100
11 4037 44407 121
12 4414 52968 144
TOTAL 78 48970 324849 650

We used the no of passenger data to illustrate the calculation involved in applying regression
analysis to identify a linear trend. For a linear trend, the estimated no of passengers expressed
as a function of time is 𝑇𝑡 = 𝑏0 + 𝑏1 t

First, we need to compute the value of 𝑏0 and 𝑏1

(78)(48970)
324849 −
12
𝑏1 =
(78)2
16206−
12

= 53.94

48970 (78)
𝑏0 = – 53.94 ( 12
)
12

= 3730.22

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Therefore, 𝑇𝑡 = 3730.22 + 53.94𝑡 is the equation for the linear trend component for the no of
passenger time series.

The slope of 53.94 in the trend equation indicates that over the past 12months in 2nd year
KTMB has experienced an average growth in the no of passenger of about 5394 no of passenger
per month. We assume that the past 12-month trend in no of passenger is a good indicator for
the future. Hence, to forecast for the month of January in 3rd year, we substitute t = 13 into the
equation.

𝑇13 = 3730.22 + 53.94(13)

= 4197.44

Thus, the trend component yields a no of passenger of 419744 for January in the 3rd year.

ANSWER

Question 3

Figure 3.1 indicates that the numbers of passenger are lowest in the month of September for
each year followed by higher number of passenger in the month of August. Thus, we
conclude that seasonal pattern exists for the number of passenger.

NUMBER OF PASSENGERS
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
July

July
August

October

August

October
November

November
April

April
May

September

May

September
January

June
February

December
January

June

December
March

March
February

NUMBER OF PASSENGERS

Figure 3.1

We begin the computational procedure used to identify each month’s seasonal influence by
computing a moving average to isolate the combined seasonal and irregular component. To
do so, we use two years of data in each calculation. Because we are working with a monthly

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series, we use 12 data values in each moving average. The moving average calculations are
shown based on the table below.

YEAR MONTH NO. OF 12-MONTH CENTERED SEASONAL

PASSENGER MOVING MOVING IRREGULAR
AVERAGE AVERAGE COMPONENT
JAN 3601

FEB 3590

MARCH 3225

APR 3199

MAY 4044

JUNE 4128
ST
1 3757
JULY 4228 3765 1.12
3774
AUG 4316 3629 1.19
3485
SEPT 3110 3498 0.89
3512
OCT 3890 3528 1.10
3545
NOV 3746 3552 1.05
3559
DEC 4012 3568 1.12
3578
JAN 3810 3586 1.06
3595
FEB 3927 3596 1.09
3598
MARCH 3544 3551 0.99
3505
APR 3605 3528 1.02
3552
ND
2 MAY 4202 3548 1.18
3545
JUNE 4432 3560 1.24
3576
JULY 4640

AUG 4677

SEPT 3560

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OCT 4122

NOV 4037

DEC 4414

We assume that the index of the month when the numbers of passengers is averages 1.00 then
the sum of all the indexes is supposed to be exactly 12.00. However, the sum of all the 12 the
indexes in the last column of the Table 3.2 is 13.05. Therefore, some adjustment is required,
so that some of the indexes is exactly is equal to 12.

REMOVAL OF IRREGULAR COMPONENT

MONTH SEASONAL-IRREGULAR SEASONAL INDEX

COMPONENT
January 1.06 1.06
February 1.09 1.09
March 0.99 0.99
April 1.02 1.02
May 1.18 1.18
June 1.24 1.24
July 1.12 1.12
August 1.19 1.19
September 0.89 0.89
October 1.10 1.10
November 1.05 1.05
December 1.12 1.12
TOTAL 13.05
Table 3.2

Interpretation of the values in table 3.3 provides some observation about the seasonal
component in the number of passenger for KTMB. The best months for the number of
passengers are in the month of June with average of 24% above the average monthly value.
The worst numbers of passengers for KTMB are in the month of March, with its seasonal
index at 0.99, showing the average of 1% below the average monthly value. The seasonal
component corresponds to the intuitive expectation that the school holiday has started
including the universities and thus the numbers of passengers pattern tend to peak in the
month of June.

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ADJUSTED SEASONAL INDEXES

MONTH INDEX
January 0.97
February 1.00
March 0.91
April 0.94
May 1.09
June 1.14
July 1.03
August 1.09
September 0.82
October 1.01
November 0.97
December 1.03
TOTAL 12.00
Table 3.3

DESEASONALIZATION OF THE TIME SERIES DATA

YEAR MONTH Yt St Yt/St

January 3601 0.97 3712
February 3590 1.00 3590
March 3225 0.91 3544
April 3199 0.94 3403
May 4044 1.09 3710
June 4128 1.14 3621
1ST
July 4228 1.03 4105
August 4316 1.09 3960
September 3110 0.82 3393
October 3890 1.01 3851
November 3746 0.97 3862
December 4012 1.03 3895
January 3810 0.97 3928
February 3927 1.00 3927
March 3544 0.91 3895
April 3605 0.94 3835
May 4202 1.09 3855
June 4432 1.14 3888
2ND
July 4640 1.03 4505
August 4677 1.09 4291
September 3560 0.82 4341
October 4122 1.01 4081
November 4037 0.97 4162
December 4414 1.03 4285

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The purpose of finding seasonal indexes is to remove the seasonal effect from a time series.
This process is referred to deseasonalizing the time series.

We assumed the trend equation as below:

Tt = b˳ + bı t

Where bı = ∑tYt – (∑t ∑Yt)/n

∑t² - (∑t)²/n

b˳ = Ῡ - bı ῑ

TREND PROJECTION CALCULATION

t Yt tYt t²
1 3712 3712 1
2 3590 7180 4
3 3544 1063 9
4 3403 13612 16
5 3710 18550 25
6 3621 21726 36
7 4105 28735 49
8 3960 31680 64
9 3393 30537 81
10 3851 38510 100
11 3862 42482 121
12 3895 46740 144
13 3928 51064 169
14 3927 54978 196
15 3895 58425 225
16 3835 61360 256
17 3855 65535 289
18 3888 69984 324
19 4505 66595 361
20 4291 85820 400
21 4341 91161 441
22 4081 89782 484
23 4162 95726 529
24 4285 102840 576
TOTAL 300 93639 1177797 4900

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We have ῑ = 300/24

= 12.5,

Ῡ = 93639/24

= 3901.63

bı = 1177797 – (300 x 93639)/24

4900 – (300²)/24

= 6.356

b˳ = 3901.63 - (6.356 x 12.5)

= 3822.18

Tt = 3822.18 + 6.356t

Now, we adjust the forecast for the seasonal index. The table 3.4 below shows the monthly
forecast for month of 25 until 36. The forecasts show the high volume 30 month with a 5215
passengers forecast and the low volume 33 month with a 2711 passengers forecast.

COMPUTATION OF THE FINAL FORECASTED VALUES

T TREND FORECAST SEASONAL INDEX MONTHLY FORECAST

25 3981.08 0.97 3745.80
26 3987.44 1.00 3987.44
27 3993.79 0.91 3307.26
28 4000.15 0.94 3534.53
29 4006.50 1.09 4760.12
30 4012.86 1.14 5215.11
31 4019.22 1.03 4263.99
32 4025.57 1.09 4782.78
33 4031.93 0.82 2711.07
34 4038.28 1.01 4119.45
35 4044.64 0.97 3805.60
36 4051.00 1.03 4297.71
Table 3.4

The above table shows the number of passengers forecasted for the third year. From this
table, Mohd Salleh Abdullah will know that in June of the year three is the highest number of
passenger and the month of September is the lowest number of passenger.

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Question 4

RECOMMADATIONS

Based on the findings of the study, there are some recommendations for KTMB
regarding on how to increase the number of customers. We suggest KTMB should improved
the train service in terms of the punctuality and provide a suitable frequency (for example:
every 10 minutes) to reduce congestion at the stations especially during peak hours.

Rapid and efficient service is an important criterion for any public transportation
system, particularly rail service. With a good road system, cars and buses tend to travel faster
than trains. If KTMB wants to increase the number of passengers, it has to offer better and
efficient service, including faster travel time.

Besides, KTMB should make a promotion by offering discount to students as most of

them are using these services to go back to their hometown. They can also make an
interesting advertisement through mass media in order to attract more customers. Brushers
and flyers could be distributed to the public so that they will get enough information
regarding the prices, destinations and services that KTMB provide.

We also suggest that KTMB should build a new station at the developing area as there
are many potential customers who are in need of their services. For example in Kulim,
Kedah, the place is developing as many constructions have been done there. Hence, it will be
easier for people mostly students and citizen who work outside the city to go to the desired
place.

From our observation, we recommend KTMB to provide free drinks for passengers
who are travelling more than 100 kilometres. They can also provide television that displaying
interesting and different movies. By doing this, customers satisfaction can be achieve. When
customers are satisfied with their services, the probability of customers to use the same
service again is high. Hence, customers will be more secure to use their services and this will
increase the number of passengers.

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APPENDIX
FOR QUESTION 1 (iii)

α=0.2

Exponential
Actual smoothing Squared
Year Month Data Forecasts (α=0.2) Forecast Error Forecast Error
January 3601 3601 - -
February 3590 3601 -11 121
March 3225 3598.8 -373.8 139726.44
April 3199 3524.04 -325.04 105651.0016
May 4044 3459.032 584.968 342187.561
June 4128 3576.0256 551.9744 304675.7383
1 July 4228 3686.42048 541.57952 293308.3765
August 4316 3794.736384 521.263616 271715.7574
September 3110 3898.989107 -788.9891072 622503.8113
October 3890 3741.191286 148.8087142 22144.03343
November 3746 3770.953029 -24.95302861 622.6536367
December 4012 3765.962423 246.0375771 60534.48935
January 3810 3815.169938 -5.169938309 26.72826212
February 3927 3814.135951 112.8640494 12738.29364
March 3544 3836.708761 -292.7087605 85678.41848
April 3605 3778.167008 -173.1670084 29986.8128
May 4202 3743.533607 458.4663933 210191.4338
June 4432 3835.226885 596.7731146 356138.1503
2 July 4640 3954.581508 685.4184917 469798.5088
August 4677 4091.665207 585.3347934 342616.8203
September 3560 4208.732165 -648.7321653 420853.4223
October 4122 4078.985732 43.01426775 1850.22723
November 4037 4087.588586 -50.5885858 2559.205014
December 4414 4077.470869 336.5291314 113251.8563

MSE = 182994.8148

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α=0.3

Exponential
smoothing
Actual Forecasts Squared
Year Month Data (α=0.3) Forecast Error Forecast Error
January 3601 3601 - -
February 3590 3601 -11 121
March 3225 3597.7 -372.7 138905.29
April 3199 3485.89 -286.89 82305.8721
May 4044 3399.823 644.177 414964.0073
June 4128 3593.0761 534.9239 286143.5788
1 July 4228 3753.55327 474.44673 225099.6996
August 4316 3895.887289 420.112711 176494.6899
September 3110 4021.921102 -911.9211023 831600.0968
October 3890 3748.344772 141.6552284 20066.20373
November 3746 3790.84134 -44.84134013 2010.745784
December 4012 3777.388938 234.6110619 55042.35037
January 3810 3847.772257 -37.77225666 1426.743373
February 3927 3836.44058 90.55942034 8201.008612
March 3544 3863.608406 -319.6084058 102149.533
April 3605 3767.725884 -162.725884 26479.71334
May 4202 3718.908119 483.0918812 233377.7657
June 4432 3863.835683 568.1643168 322810.6909
2 July 4640 4034.284978 605.7150218 366890.6876
August 4677 4215.999485 461.0005152 212521.4751
September 3560 4354.299639 -794.2996393 630911.917
October 4122 4116.009748 5.990252469 35.88312464
November 4037 4117.806823 -80.80682327 6529.742687
December 4414 4093.564776 320.4352237 102678.7326

MSE= 184642.062

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α=0.4

Exponential
Actual smoothing Squared
Year Month Data Forecasts (α=0.4) Forecast Error Forecast Error
January 3601 3601 - -
February 3590 3601 -11 121
March 3225 3596.6 -371.6 138086.56
April 3199 3447.96 -248.96 61981.0816
May 4044 3348.376 695.624 483892.7494
June 4128 3626.6256 501.3744 251376.289
1 July 4228 3827.17536 400.82464 160660.392
August 4316 3987.505216 328.494784 107908.8231
September 3110 4118.90313 -1008.90313 1017885.525
October 3890 3715.341878 174.6581222 30505.45966
November 3746 3785.205127 -39.20512666 1537.041956
December 4012 3769.523076 242.476924 58795.05868
January 3810 3866.513846 -56.5138456 3193.814744
February 3927 3843.908307 83.09169264 6904.229386
March 3544 3877.144984 -333.1449844 110985.5806
April 3605 3743.886991 -138.8869906 19289.59617
May 4202 3688.332194 513.6678056 263854.6145
June 4432 3893.799317 538.2006834 289659.9756
2 July 4640 4109.07959 530.92041 281876.4818
August 4677 4321.447754 355.552246 126417.3996
September 3560 4463.668652 -903.6686524 816617.0333
October 4122 4102.201191 19.79880856 391.9928206
November 4037 4110.120715 -73.12071486 5346.638942
December 4414 4080.872429 333.1275711 110973.9786

MSE= 189054.8398

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α=0.5

Exponential
smoothing
Actual Forecasts Squared
Year Month Data (α=0.5) Forecast Error Forecast Error
January 3601 3601 - -
February 3590 3601 -11 121
March 3225 3595.5 -370.5 137270.25
April 3199 3410.25 -211.25 44626.5625
May 4044 3304.625 739.375 546675.3906
June 4128 3674.3125 453.6875 205832.3477
1 July 4228 3901.15625 326.84375 106826.8369
August 4316 4064.578125 251.421875 63212.95923
September 3110 4190.289063 -1080.289063 1167024.459
October 3890 3650.144531 239.8554688 57530.64589
November 3746 3770.072266 -24.07226563 579.4739723
December 4012 3758.036133 253.9638672 64497.64584
January 3810 3885.018066 -75.01806641 5627.710287
February 3927 3847.509033 79.4909668 6318.813802
March 3544 3887.254517 -343.2545166 117823.6632
April 3605 3715.627258 -110.6272583 12238.39028
May 4202 3660.313629 541.6863708 293424.1244
June 4432 3931.156815 500.8431854 250843.8964
2 July 4640 4181.578407 458.4215927 210150.3567
August 4677 4410.789204 266.2107964 70868.1881
September 3560 4543.894602 -983.8946018 968048.5875
October 4122 4051.947301 70.05269909 4907.38065
November 4037 4086.97365 -49.97365046 2497.36574
December 4414 4061.986825 352.0131748 123913.2752

MSE= 193950.405

20
 Page 21 of 26

α=0.6

Exponential
Actual smoothing Squared
Year Month Data Forecasts (α=0.6) Forecast Error Forecast Error
January 3601 3601 - -
February 3590 3601 -11 121
March 3225 3594.4 -369.4 136456.36
April 3199 3372.76 -173.76 30192.5376
May 4044 3268.504 775.496 601394.046
June 4128 3733.8016 394.1984 155392.3786
1 July 4228 3970.32064 257.67936 66398.65257
August 4316 4124.928256 191.071744 36508.41136
September 3110 4239.571302 -1129.571302 1275931.327
October 3890 3561.828521 328.171479 107696.5197
November 3746 3758.731408 -12.73140838 162.0887594
December 4012 3751.092563 260.9074366 68072.6905
January 3810 3907.637025 -97.63702534 9532.988718
February 3927 3849.05481 77.94518986 6075.452623
March 3544 3895.821924 -351.8219241 123778.6662
April 3605 3684.72877 -79.72876962 6356.676705
May 4202 3636.891508 565.1084922 319347.6079
June 4432 3975.956603 456.0433969 207975.5798
2 July 4640 4249.582641 390.4173587 152425.714
August 4677 4483.833057 193.1669435 37313.46806
September 3560 4599.733223 -1039.733223 1081045.174
October 4122 3975.893289 146.106711 21347.17099
November 4037 4063.557316 -26.55731562 705.2910127
December 4414 4047.622926 366.3770738 134232.1602

MSE= 199063.5636

21
 Page 22 of 26

α=0.7

Exponential
Actual smoothing Squared
Year Month Data Forecasts (α=0.7) Forecast Error Forecast Error
January 3601 3601 - -
February 3590 3601 -11 121
March 3225 3593.3 -368.3 135644.89
April 3199 3335.49 -136.49 18629.5201
May 4044 3239.947 804.053 646501.2268
June 4128 3802.7841 325.2159 105765.3816
1 July 4228 4030.43523 197.56477 39031.83835
August 4316 4168.730569 147.269431 21688.28531
September 3110 4271.819171 -1161.819171 1349823.785
October 3890 3458.545751 431.4542488 186152.7688
November 3746 3760.563725 -14.56372536 212.1020964
December 4012 3750.369118 261.6308824 68450.71862
January 3810 3933.510735 -123.5107353 15254.90173
February 3927 3847.053221 79.94677942 6391.487539
March 3544 3903.015966 -359.0159662 128892.464
April 3605 3651.70479 -46.70478985 2181.337395
May 4202 3619.011437 582.988563 339875.6646
June 4432 4027.103431 404.8965689 163941.2315
2 July 4640 4310.531029 329.4689707 108549.8026
August 4677 4541.159309 135.8406912 18452.69339
September 3560 4636.247793 -1076.247793 1158309.311
October 4122 3882.874338 239.1256622 57181.08233
November 4037 4050.262301 -13.26230134 175.8886368
December 4414 4040.97869 373.0213096 139144.8974

MSE= 204798.795

22
 Page 23 of 26

α=0.8

Exponential
Actual smoothing Squared
Year Month Data Forecasts (α=0.8) Forecast Error Forecast Error
January 3601 3601 - -
February 3590 3601 -11 121
March 3225 3592.2 -367.2 134835.84
April 3199 3298.44 -99.44 9888.3136
May 4044 3218.888 825.112 680809.8125
June 4128 3878.9776 249.0224 62012.1557
1 July 4228 4078.19552 149.80448 22441.38223
August 4316 4198.039104 117.960896 13914.77299
September 3110 4292.407821 -1182.407821 1398088.255
October 3890 3346.481564 543.5184358 295412.2901
November 3746 3781.296313 -35.29631283 1245.8297
December 4012 3753.059263 258.9407374 67050.3055
January 3810 3960.211853 -150.2118525 22563.60064
February 3927 3840.042371 86.9576295 7561.629328
March 3544 3909.608474 -365.6084741 133669.5563
April 3605 3617.121695 -12.12169482 146.9354853
May 4202 3607.424339 594.575661 353520.2167
June 4432 4083.084868 348.9151322 121741.7695
2 July 4640 4362.216974 277.7830264 77163.40978
August 4677 4584.443395 92.55660529 8566.725182
September 3560 4658.488679 -1098.488679 1206677.378
October 4122 3779.697736 342.3022642 117170.8401
November 4037 4053.539547 -16.53954716 273.5566202
December 4414 4040.307909 373.6920906 139645.7786

MSE= 211935.711

23
 Page 24 of 26

α=0.9

Exponential
Actual smoothing Squared
Year Month Data Forecasts (α=0.9) Forecast Error Forecast Error
January 3601 3601 - -
February 3590 3601 -11 121
March 3225 3591.1 -366.1 134029.21
April 3199 3261.61 -62.61 3920.0121
May 4044 3205.261 838.739 703483.1101
June 4128 3960.1261 167.8739 28181.6463
1 July 4228 4111.21261 116.78739 13639.29446
August 4316 4216.321261 99.678739 9935.851009
September 3110 4306.032126 -1196.032126 1430492.847
October 3890 3229.603213 660.3967874 436123.9168
November 3746 3823.960321 -77.96032126 6077.811691
December 4012 3753.796032 258.2039679 66669.28903
January 3810 3986.179603 -176.1796032 31039.25259
February 3927 3827.61796 99.38203968 9876.789811
March 3544 3917.061796 -373.061796 139175.1037
April 3605 3581.30618 23.6938204 561.397125
May 4202 3602.630618 599.369382 359243.6561
June 4432 4142.063062 289.9369382 84063.42814
2 July 4640 4403.006306 236.9936938 56166.01091
August 4677 4616.300631 60.69936938 3684.413443
September 3560 4670.930063 -1110.930063 1234165.605
October 4122 3671.093006 450.9069937 203317.117
November 4037 4076.909301 -39.90930063 1592.752277
December 4414 4040.99093 373.0090699 139135.7663

MSE= 221508.49

24
 Page 25 of 26

α=1.0

Exponential
Actual smoothing Squared
Year Month Data Forecasts (α=1.0) Forecast Error Forecast Error
January 3601 3601 - -
February 3590 3601 -11 121
March 3225 3590 -365 133225
April 3199 3225 -26 676
May 4044 3199 845 714025
June 4128 4044 84 7056
1 July 4228 4128 100 10000
August 4316 4228 88 7744
September 3110 4316 -1206 1454436
October 3890 3110 780 608400
November 3746 3890 -144 20736
December 4012 3746 266 70756
January 3810 4012 -202 40804
February 3927 3810 117 13689
March 3544 3927 -383 146689
April 3605 3544 61 3721
May 4202 3605 597 356409
June 4432 4202 230 52900
2 July 4640 4432 208 43264
August 4677 4640 37 1369
September 3560 4677 -1117 1247689
October 4122 3560 562 315844
November 4037 4122 -85 7225
December 4414 4037 377 142129

MSE= 234735.087

25