Environmental Research 191 (2020) 110143

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Environmental Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envres

Critical risk determination method of energy-flow network for urban

electricity system under extreme heat wave impact
Chunming Shen a, b, Wei Zhu, Doctor, Research fellow a, *, Liping Xu a
a
Beijing Research Center of Urban System Engineering, Beijing, 100035, China
b
Beijing Academy of Science and Technology, Beijing, 100089, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The extreme high temperature weather event caused by global warming has increased the risk of urban electric
Heat-wave impact power supply. Critical risk determination method is useful to the system risk prevention and adaptive strategy
Electric power system risk formulation. Based on analyzing the failure mechanism of power supply under heat wave impact, the paper put
Energy flow network assessment
forward the method framework of energy-flow network on electric power system risk evaluation. There are three
Gephi visualization analysis
parts in the framework including energy-flow chart analysis of power supply and consumption, establishment
and network analysis of Gephi visualization network, and matrix diagram evaluation of node importance. The
visualized network of power system with different years and electricity input from external area were established
and compared in the case study of Beijing in China. The analysis results showed that the network structure
stability of the power system decreased slightly, which was due to the node energy flow becoming high
imbalance such as power input from external area, local power generation and energy consumption. For risk
prevention, power infrastructures should focus on the high-voltage transmission and distribution facilities and
500 kV hub substations. Meanwhile, to electric power generation and supply, natural gas supply and power
supply from Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region played the key roles. And power consumption should focus on
the tertiary industry and living consumption.

1. Introduction
Climate change is expected to further increase the frequency, in­
tensity and duration of extreme weather events (IPCC, 2012; IPCC,
2014), extreme heat wave during the summer period has become one of
the most serious extreme climate disasters in the world (Watts et al.,
2018; Willems et al., 2013; Yang et al., 2019). As the greenhouse effect
on global climate exacerbates, the urban impacted risk has been
improved in almost all sectors of human living including infrastructures,
water resources and energy (Park et al., 2016; Royé et al., 2020; Shourav
et al., 2017). The electrical power system is the basic guarantee for the
stable operation of modern urban operation, and becomes increasingly
important (Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004). However, the weather-related
blackouts are high proportion, such as severe weather caused approxi­
mately 80% of the large-scale power outages from 2003 to 2012 in U.S
(Kenward and Raja, 2014). According to the studies, the extreme heat
wave events have significant influence on the reliability and operation of
power infrastructure(Ward, 2013), such as limit the transfer capability
of transmission lines, and increase the energy losses and the line sagging
(Lubega and Stillwell, 2017; Ke et al., 2016). In addition, extreme high
temperature will affect the efficiency of the substation earthing, also
contribute to catastrophic wildfires around the world, which threaten
mainly the transmission facilities (Abdin et al., 2019; Parkpoom et al.,
2008). Meanwhile, the growth in the demand and change in load pat­
terns due to the extreme high temperature increased the regulation risk
of power system (Mirasgedis et al., 2007; Morakinyo et al., 2019;
Mukherjee et al., 2018; Wu et al., 2016). In recent years, due to the
increasing intensity and frequency of urban heat wave, the electric
outage happened frequently (Gamble et al., 2016; Frumkin et al., 2017),
such as New York blackout caused about 73000 users affected in 2019,
and Taiwan of China blackout caused one person died and about 2.5
million dollars loss in 2017. Uprating or making all the power system
components more robust to cope with the potentially increased impact
of extreme heat wave events is a very expensive and rather unrealistic
solution. Hence, it is considered important to enhance the resilience of
electrical power systems to such events.
How to manage and control the impact risk of extreme heat on power
system is being concerned. In fact, resilience strategies and modelling

* Corresponding author. Beijing Research Center of Urban System Engineering, Beijing, 100035, China.
E-mail addresses: shenchunming@xtgc.org.cn (C. Shen), zhuweianquan@126.com (W. Zhu).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.110143
Received 20 December 2019; Received in revised form 12 June 2020; Accepted 14 August 2020
Available online 1 September 2020
0013-9351/© 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
C. Shen et al.
Fig. 1. Changes of electric power supply and consumption in Beijing from 2000 to 2017. a) power supply, b) power consumption.
research framework has been presented and discussed, although the
resilience of the entire power infrastructure is a difficult task due to the
stochastic and unpredicted (Bie et al., 2017; Panteli et al., 2016; Zamuda
et al., 2019). To the modelling techniques, the techniques of power
systems reliability assessment can be generally divided into analytical
(Billinton and Singh, 2006; Liu et al., 2010) and Monte Carlo simulations
(Rios et al., 2002; Schlapfer et al., 2011). Generally, the simulation
techniques are considered more suitable than the analytical techniques
for weather-related power system resilience studies. However, the
methods are relatively complex and difficult, which are suitable for the
known power system composition in different ranges due to the sto­
chastic and space-and time-dependent of severe weather. The measures
to enhance the resilience of electrical power systems can be divided in
short-term measures as reserve planning prepare for the forthcoming
weather event (Fleming, 2011) and long-term measures as risk assess­
ment and management (Leonard et al., 2008). Morakinyo (Morakinyo
et al., 2019) analyzed the annual trend of cooling degree days in Hong
Kong, and quantify the impact of extreme heat events on the summer
cooling energy requirements to increase the system resilience.
Mukherjee (Mukherjee et al., 2018) developed a two-stage hybrid risk
estimation model to characterize the underlying risk factors associated
with the electricity supply disruptions from the end-user perspective.
Burilloa (Burilloa et al., 2017) studied the models of stationarity as­
sumptions on long-term planning estimates of air temperatures, peak
demand, generation capacity, and LRM, and gave a qualitative discus­
sion of options to mitigate the risk of LRM shortages. Panteli (Panteli and
Mancarella, 2016) proposed a general modelling research framework of
weather-affected power system resilience, which mainly interact with
the weather, component, and system, and aimed to output the resilience
of the entire system by considering the system topologies, technologies
and practices, such as energy storage, demand side management and
visualization tools. Therefore, it’s vitally important to enhance the
resilience of electrical power systems to heat wave events, and it is a
reasonable method to estimate the risk and resilience of power system
from the perspective of system network.
In the paper, we take the megacity of Beijing in China with the
complex power supply and consumption as an illustrative example, to
identify the primary risk of the power system composition based on
energy–flow chart and analysis of Gephi network in combination with
the matrix diagram evaluation. The advantage of the method is that the
analysis factors are from the integrity of system engineering. However, if
the network system can be constructed by integrating the reliability of
power grid structure such as power system components in the specific
context of heat wave, it will be more able to achieve quantitative
analysis and output guiding results.
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Environmental Research 191 (2020) 110143
2. Risk response mechanism of power system affected by heat
wave
2.1. Urban power system composition
Urban power system usually consist of three section including elec­
tric energy generation and transformation, power transmission and
distribution, and final consumption (Zhang et al., 2012). Electric energy
generation and transformation generally includes the local primary
energy and the electric power input from further afield. The primary
energy used for the transformation of electric power includes coal,
natural gas, oil and renewable energy such as hydropower, wind and
solar. Power transmission and distribution usually refer to the complex
grid infrastructure and dispatching management system, which is
generally called power supply system together with the electric energy
generation and transformation. The final consumption section is the end
consumption of the electric energy including the primary industry,
secondary industry, tertiary industry, living consumption and so on (Yu
et al., 2018). The primary energy supply of Beijing as a mega city in
China is dependent on the natural gas, more than 92% of the total energy
supply and about 70% electric energy are from external area. Mean­
while, the power consumption of the tertiary industry and living con­
sumption accounts for about 70% of the total consumption (Shi et al.,
2014). As Fig. 1 that electric energy supply and consumption in Beijing
from 2000 to 2017 shown, the quantity of power supply showed a trend
of continuous growth, not only the local power generation but also the
power input from external area, and the growth rate of external power
input was higher than that of local power generation in general, such as
Fig. 1a. It should be noted that natural gas and new energy power
generation accounted for 84.85% and 4.5% of local primary energy
power generation respectively, which reflected the imbalance and
singleness of primary energy for local power generation and the
importance of natural gas for local power supply in Beijing. It’s shown as
Fig. 1b, the electric energy consumption in Beijing are mainly concen­
trated in the tertiary industry, secondary industry and living consump­
tion, accounting for 47.36%, 25.32% and 19.15% respectively in 2016
(BMBS, 2000–2017). In recent years, the tertiary industry and living
consumption are the primary role to the rapid growth of power con­
sumption. Especially the tertiary industry, has become the most
important components of the power consumption from 2007, in which
the consumption of the tertiary industry exceeded that of the secondary
industry for the first time. However, due to the decentralized distribu­
tion of users in the tertiary industry and living consumption, increases
the difficulty of demand side management, and increases the risk of
power regulation and control in peak power period.
C. Shen et al. Environmental Research 191 (2020) 110143

Fig. 2. Schematic of disaster chain about electric power system under extreme high temperature impact.

2.2. Electricity system risk response under heat wave impact
Generally, when the power supply can’t meet the power consump­
tion, there will be power supply accidents, such as blackout, orderly
power use, and so on (Shi et al., 2019). As shown in Fig. 2 that the system
dynamic characteristics of the power load response and the disaster
chain under the impact of extreme air temperature, the heat wave event
could significantly increase the cooling load and the failure rate of
electricity system components, which increasing the system vulnera­
bility and instability. To the whole process of risk response, firstly the
maximum temperature was usually higher than 35 ◦ C for much long
time (Zhao et al., 2017)during the heat wave, negatively influenced the
human comfort, industrial equipment and operation environment (Wu
et al., 2017), which caused the demand of power cooling load increasing
rapidly, and increased the loss of power transmission and distribution
(Bai et al., 2018; Kang and Eltahir, 2018). The electricity system would
be in the operation of high load or even overload situation when the
special severe weather happened, and the failure rate of the power
system components increase. Then, based on the theory of catastrophe
and critical self-organization (Bak and Chen, 1991), as the system
vulnerability increasing, the electric power system could operate nor­
mally when the dispatching and emergency management were effective

Fig. 3. Flow chart and schematic diagram of risk determination framework based on energy-flow network analysis.

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C. Shen et al. Environmental Research 191 (2020) 110143

Table 1
Power supply data of Beijing in 2010 and 2016.
Year Local power Power transfer from outside

Renewable energy Coal and coal products Nature gas Oil products Others Neimenggu Hebei Shanxi Tianjin

Waterpower Solar Wind

2010 0.563% 0.070% 0.05 22.058% 8.840% 0.485% 0.226% 20.330% 18.650% 21.720% 7.070%
2016 1.200% 0.110% 0.320% 2.650% 36.230% 0.263% 1.920% 47.640% 29.668% 13.962% 8.722%

to the emergency disturbance (Shaffer, 1997). and. However, when the

power supply could not meet the power load demand, the risk of grid Table 3
Power consumption data of Beijing in 2010 and 2016.
operation would increase as a power-law function (Bashash and Fathy,
2013; Dobson et al., 2001; Sun et al., 2010), which easily lead to elec­ Place of Long distance high Transformer bonding Power hubs
production voltage transmission of 500 kV double in load center
tricity system accidents. Therefore, driven by the extreme high tem­
line loop
perature, the demand of electric energy flow and the electricity system
composition are the important consideration that affect and maintain Inner Mongolia Zhangnan to Mentougou Haidian
autonomous Changping Anding Chaoyang
the system stability, and also the main content of analyzing the risk of Shanxi Wanquan to Shunyi Changping CBD
electric power system under heat wave impact. Province Zhangnan to Tongzhou Lize
Hebei Mentougou Shunyi Chengbei
3. Method and data of energy flow network Province Beijing East to Shunyi Fangshan Xingdu
Tianjin Beijing East to Xinhangcheng
Tongzhou Tongzhou North
3.1. Network analysis method and framework Beijing West to
Xinhangcheng
Gephi is a network visualization and analysis software used in Hunyuan to Anding
various disciplines (social network analysis, biology, genomics, medi­ Datong to Fangshan
Nancai to New
cine, public health), developed initially in France (Lucaciu et al., 2016). airport to Fangshan
The user interacts with the representation, manipulate the structures, Zhangbei to Beijing
shapes and colors to reveal hidden patterns. And to help data analysts to Weixian to
make hypothesis, intuitively discover patterns, isolate structure singu­ Mentougou
Guan to Anding
larities or faults during data sourcing (Bastian et al., 2009; Kauffman
Panshan to Tongzhou
et al., 2014). Using the network visualization and analysis of Gephi
software, the framework of the method for determining the importance
of electric power system included three parts, and the flow chart and
NE
schematic diagram of the method were shown in Fig. 3. The first part D= (1)
includes data collection and processing, which provides the basic sup­ NN 2 − NN
port for analysis and network establishment. Date collection of the first To the undirected-graph,
step mainly includes the items of electric energy generation, trans­
2NE
formation and consumption, which based on the statistics by time series D= (2)
NN 2 − NN
and hierarchy process. Then use the method of energy flow chart
(Chandra et al., 2015; Zhang et al., 2012)to sort out the date and process In which, D was the graph density, NE was the quantity of the edge,
the data value into the percentage. The goal of the second part is to build NN was the he quantity of the node.
and analyze the network of the power system as the processing of energy The third part is to evaluate the importance of the network nodes
flow chart by Gephi v0.9.2. It is necessary and important to define the about the power system components, which including the steps of
compositions and the energy flow of the power system as the network network analysis statistic and quantitative assessment by the matrix
nodes and vector edges, according to the direction of the energy flow is diagram method. According to the importance grade of the estimate
the same as the network edge. Then carry out analysis operations results to build the matrix diagram, the key components would be output
including generation of the visual network and analysis of the node and determined, and finally the risk response and resilience increase
degrees and network characteristics using Gephi software. Network strategies of the electric power system would be formulated combine
structure summary reflect the characteristics of the network, including with the analysis of network characteristics.
average weighted degree, graph density, average clustering coefficient,
average path length and so on (Chevren, 2013). Gephi v0.9.2 has the
3.2. Case study date
analysis tool bars for these parameters to calculate and output the re­
sults. Such as the parameter of graph density, the bigger the value of
For the structure and energy flow of power transmission and distri­
which is, the closer the nodes are connected, can be calculated as
bution are so complex, in order to simplify the analysis, the case analysis
follows.
are divided into two parts. One part was the power system network
To the directed-graph,
analysis, of which the transmission and distribution was simplified. The
other was a separate analysis of the power transmission and distribution

Table 2
Power consumption data of Beijing in 2010 and 2016.
Year Primary industry Secondary industry Tertiary industry Living consumption Loss

Industry Construction Transportation, storage, etc Retail, catering, etc Others City and town Countryside

2010 2.033% 30.828% 2.834% 6.062% 9.203% 26.291% 11.479% 5.289% 5.979%
2016 1.920% 23.230% 2.090% 4.960% 9.570% 32.830% 16.310% 2.840% 6.240%

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C. Shen et al. Environmental Research 191 (2020) 110143

Fig. 4. Gephi network diagram of Beijing power system structure. a) Energy flow network of power system in 2010, b) Energy flow network of power system in 2016,
c) Energy flow network of transmission and distribution about power transfer from outside.

structure, of which the analysis level of the network structure was only
to 500 kV urban power hub, such as the 500 kV power hub of Tongzhou,
Fangshan, Changping and so on. The case study based on the data of
Beijing power supply and consumption in 2010 and 2016, which were
from Beijing Statistical Yearbook issued by Beijing Municipal Bureau of
statistics. A comparative analysis was carried out to the power system
network analysis, and the network node degree was analyzed to the
power transmission and distribution structure. The energy flow data of
Beijing in 2010 and 2016 are shown in Tables 1 and 2. The data of power
hubs and power input from external area are from energy development
plan of Beijing during the 13th Five Year Plan Period and 12th Five Year
Plan Period (BMPG, 2011, 2017), which are shown as Table 3.
4. Result and discussion
4.1. Result
According to the method as Fig. 3, network analysis was carried out
for the case by Gephi. After the change of Huyifan to the network
structure of power system and power transmission and distribution, the
optimized network layouts were shown as Fig. 4, which showed the
characteristics of factor aggregation. The energy flow network of power

Table 4
Parameters of network structure characteristic.
Graph category Average Average Weighted Network Graph Average path Average clustering
degree Degree diameter density length coefficient

Power system structure in 2010 0.964 1.434 5 0.036 3.187 0

Power system structure in 2016 0.958 1.401 5 0.042 3.155 0
Structure of external power distribution 1.647 1.647 4 0.05 2.108 0.013
system

5
C. Shen et al.
Table 5
Four color matrix of node importance evaluation.
system in 2010 and 2016 were shown as Fig. 4a and b respectively,
which having directed edges with different weights. However, there
were obvious contrasts in the weight of the edges, and reflected the
imbalance of energy supply and consumption. The energy flow network
of power transmission and distribution was shown as Fig. 4c, which
having directed edges with the same weights for the values of energy
flow data between the nodes unpublished. The analysis results of
network structure characteristic were shown as Table 4. According to
the principle of Gephi visual analysis, the color and the size of nodes
represented the different node degrees, and the wider edge has the
higher weight. Hence, compared with the parameters of the network
structure, the network structure of power transmission and distribution
from external area was more complex, and the degree and the connec­
tivity of network clustering were higher, which showed that the network
was a complex network although the aggregation degree of nodes was
low. The energy flow network structure in 2010 was similar to that in
2016, the main difference was the edge weight was different, and the
characteristic value of the network structure in 2010 was slightly higher
than that in 2016. It showed that the network aggregation of Beijing
power system was increasing.
According to the analysis results of the power system network in
2010 and 2016, and referring to the evaluation matrix in Table 5 about
the node degree and edge weight, which divided the importance grades
of the node degree into five levels, the importance distribution of each
node can be obtained. The evaluation results showed that, the trans­
mission and distribution grid, power input from external area, tertiary
industry consumption and local power generation are all at the higher
grade, which were the most important nodes, and coal power generation
in 2010 and natural gas power generation in 2016 were at the high
grade. Meanwhile, secondary industry consumption and industrial
consumption were of medium grade. The analysis results of power
transmission and distribution structure showed that, Inner Mongolia
Autonomous Region has the highest output degree and the largest total
weight of power transmission and distribution, comparing with the
power supply locations from external area, such as Shanxi Province,
Hebei Province and Tianjin City. So Inner Mongolia was the most
important role in the influencing factors of power supply for Beijing
from external areas. To the urban power transmission and distribution
stations as shown in Fig. 4c, Anding 500 kV hub was the maximum
degree node, then were Fangshan, Tongzhou, Shunyi and Changping
500 kV hub nodes. Therefore, Anding, Fangshan, Tongzhou, Shunyi and
Changping 500 kV hubs are the key stations that affect Beijing’s urban
power transmission and distribution, among which Anding 500 kV hub
has the highest degree of correlation and importance.
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Environmental Research 191 (2020) 110143
4.2. Discussion
Comparing Fig. 4a and b, the network structure uniformity of the
power system in 2010 was slightly better than that in 2016. The reason
was mainly due to the relatively balanced distribution of power supplied
from external area and local power production in 2010. However, the
proportion of power supplied from Inner Mongolia and gas-fired elec­
tricity in local power production were higher in 2016, which had a
certain impact on the stability of the network.
Obviously, the proportion of electric power supplied from external
areas was so high that the power transmission and distribution in­
frastructures were very important for the power supply of Beijing.
Meanwhile, Beijing has been strengthening investments in the con­
struction of transmission and distribution infrastructures for external
power receiving in recent years, which also verified the rationality of the
network analysis results. At the same time, the consumptions of the
tertiary industry and urban living should be taken seriously, which are
also the risk factors inducing electricity consumption increasing with
outstanding influence.
In the case analysis, the physical structure of electric power in­
frastructures and power grid were simplified, however the power system
structure has a significant impact on the network establishment and
analysis results. Therefore, it’s necessary to refine the system structures
as much as possible and fully collect and organize the energy data of all
compositions when using energy flow network method. Meanwhile,
using large system construction to reduce the influence of analysis scale.
5. Conclusion
Urban power supply risk caused by extreme high temperature and
severe weather events need to be controlled and protected by the
resilience adaptation strategy, which is urgent driven by global warm­
ing. From the point of view of system engineering, the method frame­
work of energy flow network analysis about electric power system was
put forward, which establishing visual network of power system and
evaluating node importance by Gephi based on energy-flow chart
analysis. The case analysis of Beijing showed that the compositions and
energy relationship of power system transmission, distribution and
consumption can be visualized, and also the semi-quantitative analysis
of system structural importance can be realized, which help identify the
key aspects of system risk. In the case of sufficient data supporting, the
severe weather event adaptation strategy of urban electricity supply can
be optimized from the network characteristics analysis.
C. Shen et al. Environmental Research 191 (2020) 110143

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