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report
December quarter 2022
Contents
Quarter in review 3
Economic outlook 4
Market outlook 7
Asset allocation 12
Quarter in review
Total Return
closed the year steeply lower, in contrast to
the double-digit equity market gains of 2021. −6
0
growing concerns of recession for 2023.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan surprised by −5
widening its target range for the 10-year
−10
yield, increasing the maximum yield from
0.25% to 0.5%, which markets quickly tested. −15
• Bond indexes ended the quarter mostly flat
−20
as global bonds gained 0.6% (AUD hedged),
while Australian bonds gained 0.4%. Yields A-REITs Aust. Global U.S. Global Aust.
fell through most of the quarter before Equities Equities Equities Agg. Agg.
(Hedged)
reversing in December to tie out the year.
Australian and U.S. 10-year government bond Q4 2022 2022 YTD
yields rose 0.08% and 0.16% respectively, Note: Returns are cumulative total returns denominated
despite swings of 0.8%–0.9% during in AUD.
the quarter. Source: FactSet, Refinitiv, as of 31 December 2022.
• Inflation has continued to trend higher household and business balance sheets
across most economies, in many cases buoyed by pandemic-era stimulus.
setting multidecade highs. The action • The war in Ukraine continues, threatening
taken, and likely to be taken in the months another surge in energy and food
ahead, by central banks reflects a promising commodities prices. Effective monetary
effort to combat elevated inflation that policy requires good decision-making,
has proven more persistent and broad- good communication, and good luck. The
based (Figure 3). current backdrop is missing the good-
• Supply-demand imbalances linger in many luck component, posing a challenge for
sectors as global supply chains have yet to policymakers whose fiscal and monetary
fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic tools are less effective combating
and as demand is supported by strong supply shocks.
10% Forecast
Central bank policy rates
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Note: Dotted lines represent Vanguard’s forecast for policy rates as of October 31, 2022.
Sources: Vanguard calculations, based on data from Thomson Reuters Datastream and Bloomberg.
80
Recession
probability
60 50%
probability
40
20
Note: Probabilities derived from vector similarity matrixes for global unemployment, real per capita GDP, industrial
production, foreign direct investment, trade, and global energy demand were used to identify similarities between the period
under consideration and other recessionary periods.
Sources: World Bank, British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy, OECD, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED
database, OeNB, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, and UNCTAD, as of October 31, 2022. Global
unemployment data are from Kose, Sugawara, and Terrones (2020).
8%
June June June June June June June June June June
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Median 1-year-ahead expected inflation rate Median 3-year-ahead expected inflation rate
10-year expected inflation (FRED)
Notes: Global inflation expectations were calculated for G7 countries based on GDP weights. Subcomponent contributions
were calculated on a GDP-weighted basis. For CPI subcomponent weights at the country level, 2021 weights were used for
the U.S., the U.K., the European Union, and Canada; 2020 weights were used for Japan. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot
data were used for oil prices, and WTI forward prices were used for forecast estimates.
Sources: Survey of Consumer Expectations, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED
database.
• Growth is likely to end 2023 very weak or • Through job losses and slowing consumer
slightly negative in most major economies demand, a downtrend in inflation is likely to
outside of China. Unemployment is likely to persist through 2023. We don’t believe that
rise over the year but nowhere near as high central banks will achieve their targets of 2%
as during the 2008 and 2020 downturns. inflation in 2023, but they will maintain those
targets and look to achieve them through
2024 and into 2025—or reassess them when
the time is right.
• Our return outlook—which has been on a • Expected returns for several international
steady downward trajectory since 2009—is bond markets in local currency are lower
ticking up. This is especially true in fixed than those of Australian bonds in light of the
income, where our global bond forecasts are relatively lower yields in these markets, but
more than two percentage points higher than the differences are muted once we account
they were a year ago. for currency impacts.
• Although rising interest rates have created • High inflation and rising real interest rates
near-term pain for fixed income investors, have caused the cyclically adjusted price/
we expect that those with sufficiently long earnings (CAPE) ratio for many global equity
investment horizons will be better off in markets and our associated estimates of
end-of-period wealth terms by the end of fair value to decline. While equity valuations
the decade than if they had just realised our have improved, valuations remain divergent
return forecast from the end of last year. across regions.
• Against a backdrop of rapidly rising rates, • Figure 6 shows our estimate for the U.S.
our fixed income return outlook for the next equity market, where valuations reached a
decade is significantly better than last year’s level not seen since the dot-com bubble. Our
projections, at 3.5%–4.5%, based on more median fair-value estimate sits at 23.7 times
attractive valuations. the trailing 10-year average of real earnings.
Figure 6. U.S. equity valuations are more attractive than they were a year ago
50 Dot-com
bubble
40
price/earnings ratio
Cyclically adjusted
30
20
10
Notes: The fair-value CAPE is based on a statistical model that corrects CAPE measures for the level of inflation
and interest rates. The statistical model specification is a vector error correction including equity-earnings yields,
10-year trailing inflation, and 10-year government bond yields estimated from January 1940 for the U.S. and January
1970 for Australia, to 30 September 2022. Details were published in the 2017 Vanguard research paper Global Macro Matters:
As U.S. Stock Prices Rise, the Risk-Return Tradeoff Gets Tricky. A declining fair-value CAPE suggests that higher equity-risk
premium (ERP) compensation is required, whereas a rising fair-value CAPE suggests that the ERP is compressing.
Sources: Vanguard calculations, based on data from Robert Shiller’s website, at aida.wss.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board, Refinitiv, Russell indexes, FactSet, Barclays Live, and
Global Financial Data.
Figure 7. U.S. profit margins may face cyclical pressure in the near term, but should remain above
long-term averages
12% Cyclical
pressures
U.S. profit margins
9
Longer-term
trend
6
Notes: Profit margins are broken into their cyclical and trend components and forecasted using an Ordinary Least Squares
(OLS) regression model with trade intensity (sum of imports and exports) and labor costs as the independent variables. We
expect higher productivity to drive higher profit margins given the linear relationship between productivity and profit margins
and our view for higher productivity based on our proprietary Idea Multiplier. For more information on the Idea Multiplier, see
The Idea Multiplier: An Acceleration in Innovation Is Coming (Davis et al., 2019).
Sources: Vanguard calculations, based on data from Refinitiv, as of June 30, 2022.
The charts below shows the Vanguard The white circles show the median volatility
Capital Markets Model (VCMM) return forecasts. This represents the volatility of
forecasts over the next 10 years for the asset classes that can be expected over
a range of asset classes and Vanguard’s the 10-year period. The chart shows that
Diversified Funds. equities are expected to produce a higher
return over a 10-year period than bonds,
It shows two concepts: the range however the trade-off is that an investor
of annualised 10-year nominal returns can expect a more volatile experience and
and the median volatility experienced. greater uncertainty over the end point, which
could be a much wider range of outcomes.
The bars show the range of return
outcomes over a 10-year period. The An important point to remember is that
central return expectations for the asset asset returns are not perfectly correlated,
class or portfolio are shown in the middle which means that if an Australian equity
of the bars. Observations in the optimistic return over 10 years is in the optimistic range,
or pessimistic regions should not come as this does not necessarily mean that Australian
a surprise though; goals and portfolios bond returns will also be in the optimistic
should always be positioned with these range. Combining assets can therefore
possibilities in mind. present strong diversification benefits.
25%
20%
Return distribution
15%
Median
volatility
10%
95th
Optimistic
5% 75th
Central
expectation
0% 25th
Pessimistic
5th
AU AU Global AU Global AU Conservative Balanced Growth High
Inflation Equity Equity Bonds Bonds Cash Growth
(unhedged) (hedged)
RETURN PERCENTILE
MEDIAN
5TH 25TH MEDIAN 75TH 95TH VOL.
Global Aggregate Bonds (hedged) 2.6% 3.7% 4.4% 5.2% 6.4% 4.7%
The next two charts show the trade-off Highlighting the importance of managing
between targeting a CPI+ return target and expectations, it also means there is the
the risk of a loss along the way. increased probability of experiencing
a negative return or a large annual loss in
Taking more risk means that an investor at least one year over the 10 year period.
increases the probability that they will achieve
their target over 10 years.
Figure 9a. Probability of achieving real return Figure 9b. Downside risks
Probability of outcome in at least
100% 100%
Probability of achieving target
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
2% or 3% or 4% or 5% or 0% or –10% or –20% or
more more more more worse worse worse
Notes: The projections or other information generated by the VCMM regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes
are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Distribution of
return outcomes from the VCMM are derived from 10,000 simulations for each modelled asset class
in AUD. Results from the model may vary with each use and over time.
Source: Vanguard, December 2022 using 30 September 2022 VCMM and 31 December 2021 Simulations.
Return
Balanced
allocation strategies.
Figure 10. Vanguard Diversified Funds peer group comparison as at 31 December 2022
VANGUARD FUND
PEER GROUP
ASSET WEIGHTED PEER GROUP
PERCENTILE
MER (% P.A.) 3 MTHS 6 MTHS 1 YR 3 YRS 5 YRS 7 YRS 10 YRS
Sources: Vanguard, December 2022. Calculations using data from Morningstar, Inc. Past performance information is given
for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as, and is not, an indication of future performance. All returns
are net of fees and assume reinvestment of income distributions. Returns greater than 12 months are annualised. There
has been no adjustment for survivorship bias.
* The peer groups were constructed by first sourcing a universe of funds from Morningstar having the same category
as the Vanguard Funds, but excluding Vanguard strategies. An automated filter was then applied to these original peer
groups with the aim of removing identified duplicate investment strategies and retain unique strategies.
Figure 11. Vanguard Diversified Funds return contributions for the quarter as at 31 December 2022
Vanguard Australian Fixed Interest Index Fund 0.39 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Vanguard Australian Shares Index Fund 9.09 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.3
Vanguard International Shares Index Fund 4.00 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1
Vanguard International Small Companies Index Fund 5.08 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
Vanguard Emerging Markets Shares Index Fund 3.88 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Vanguard International Shares Index Fund (Hedged) – AU Class 7.25 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2
Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond Index Fund (Hedged) 0.61 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Past performance information is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as, and is not, an indication
of future performance.
*F
igures in the return contribution table are calculated as the product of the monthly gross return and the corresponding
actual asset allocation.
IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the VCMM regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are
hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Distribution of return outcomes from
the VCMM are derived from 10,000 simulations for each modelled asset class in AUD. Simulations are as of May 2022. Results from the model
may vary with each use and over time.
The VCMM projections are based on a statistical analysis of historical data. Future returns may behave differently from the historical patterns
captured in the VCMM. More importantly, the VCMM may be underestimating extreme negative scenarios unobserved in the historical period on
which the model estimation is based.
The Vanguard Capital Markets Model® is a proprietary financial simulation tool developed and maintained by Vanguard's primary investment
research and advice teams. The model forecasts distributions of future returns for a wide array of broad asset classes. Those asset classes
include U.S. and international equity markets, several maturities of the U.S. Treasury and corporate fixed income markets, international fixed
income markets, U.S. money markets, commodities, and certain alternative investment strategies. The theoretical and empirical foundation for
the Vanguard Capital Markets Model is that the returns of various asset classes reflect the compensation investors require for bearing different
types of systematic risk (beta). At the core of the model are estimates of the dynamic statistical relationship between risk factors and asset
returns, obtained from statistical analysis based on available monthly financial and economic data from as early as 1960. Using a system of
estimated equations, the model then applies a Monte Carlo simulation method to project the estimated interrelationships among risk factors
and asset classes as well as uncertainty and randomness over time. The model generates a large set of simulated outcomes for each asset class
over several time horizons. Forecasts are obtained by computing measures of central tendency in these simulations. Results produced by the tool
will vary with each use and over time.
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