-- 104 --

And finally, a fifth possible means of connecting string theory to observations involves the cosmological constant—remember, as
discussed in Chapter 3, this is the modification Einstein temporarily imposed on his original equations of general relativity to
ensure a static universe. Although the subsequent discovery that the universe is expanding led Einstein to retract the modification,
physicists have since realized that there is no explanation for why the cosmological constant should be zero. In fact, the
cosmological constant can be interpreted as a kind of overall energy stored in the vacuum of space, and hence its value should be
theoretically calculable and experimentally measurable. But, to date, such calculations and measurements lead to a colossal
mismatch: Observations show that the cosmological constant is either zero (as Einstein ultimately suggested) or quite small;
calculations indicate that quantum-mechanical fluctuations in the vacuum of empty space tend to generate a nonzero cosmological
constant whose value is some 120 orders of magnitude (a 1 followed by 120 zeros) larger than experiment allows! This presents a
wonderful challenge and opportunity for string theorists: Can calculations in string theory improve on this mismatch and explain
why the cosmological constant is zero, or if experiments do ultimately establish that its value is small but nonzero, can string
theory provide an explanation? Should string theorists be able to rise to this challenge—as yet they have not—it would provide a
compelling piece of evidence in support of the theory.

An Appraisal

The history of physics is filled with ideas that when first presented seemed completely untestable but, through various unforeseen
developments, were ultimately brought within the realm of experimental verifiability. The notion that matter is made of atoms,
Pauli's hypothesis that there are ghostly neutrino particles, and the possibility that the heavens are dotted with neutron stars and
black holes are three prominent ideas of precisely this sort—ideas that we now embrace fully but that, at their inception, seemed
more like musings of science fiction than aspects of science fact.

The motivation for introducing string theory is at least as compelling as any of these three ideas—in fact, string theory has been
hailed as the most important and exciting development in theoretical physics since the discovery of quantum mechanics. This
comparison is particularly apt because the history of quantum mechanics teaches us that revolutions in physics can easily take
many decades to reach maturity. And compared to today's string theorists, the physicists working out quantum mechanics had a
great advantage: Quantum mechanics, even when only partially formulated, could make direct contact with experimental results.
Even so, it took close to 30 years for the logical structure of quantum mechanics to be worked out, and about another 20 years to
incorporate special relativity fully into the theory. We are now incorporating general relativity, a far more challenging task, and,
moreover, one that makes contact with experiment much more difficult. Unlike those who worked out quantum theory, today's
string theorists do not have the shining light of nature—through detailed experimental results—to guide them from one step to the
next.

This means that it's conceivable that one or more generations of physicists will devote their lives to the investigation and
development of string theory without getting a shred of experimental feedback. The substantial number of physicists the world over
who are vigorously pursuing string theory know that they are taking a risk: that a lifetime of effort might result in an inconclusive
outcome. Undoubtedly, significant theoretical progress will continue, but will it be sufficient to overcome present hurdles and yield
definitive, experimentally testable predictions? Will the indirect tests we have discussed above result in a true smoking gun for
string theory? These questions are of central concern to all string theorists, but they are also questions about which nothing can
really be said. Only the passage of time will reveal the answers. The beautiful simplicity of string theory, the way in which it tames
the conflict between gravity and quantum mechanics, its ability to unify all of nature's ingredients, and its potential of limitless
predictive power all serve to provide rich inspiration that makes the risk worth taking.

These lofty considerations have been continually reinforced by the ability of string theory to uncover remarkably new physical
characteristics of a string-based universe—characteristics that reveal a subtle and deep coherence in the workings of nature. In the
language introduced above, many of these are generic features that, regardless of currently unknown details, will be basic
properties of a universe built of strings. Of these, the most astonishing have had a profound effect on our ever evolving
understanding of space and time.