Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2024
02 Executive summary
03 Key takeaways
04 Macroeconomic outlook
06 Insurance industry
outlook
11 Natural catastrophe
risk landscape and
protection gap
18 Regulatory developments
2 Swiss Re Institute India’s insurance market: growing fast with ample scope to build resilience
Executive summary
We estimate that India’s economy grew The global economy held up better than anticipated in 2023, despite several challenges
by 6.7% in real terms in 2023. such as high inflation, tight financial conditions and geopolitical tensions. We estimate
that global real GDP grew by 2.6% in 2023, down from 2.8% in 2022. Meanwhile,
India’s economy has remained resilient and at an estimated 6.7%, growth in 2023 will
outpace that of other major economies. This robust growth is supported by private
consumption and fixed investment. On the inflation front, we estimate consumer price
inflation in India to cool to 5.7% in 2023 from 6.7% in 2022 due to monetary policy
tightening. The central bank raised the policy rates by 250 basis points (bp) from 4% to
6.5% between April 2022 and March 2023. Those interest rate hikes, and also El Nino
effects, rainfall deficits, and geopolitical tensions (including the war in the Middle East,
which could impact oil prices) are some downside risks for India’s growth outlook.
India’s insurance market is set to be Economic growth, an expanding middle class, innovation and regulatory support is
the fastest growing of the G20 countries driving insurance market growth in India. Over the next five years (2024‒28), we
over the next five years... forecast that total insurance premiums will grow by 7.1% in real terms, well above the
global (2.4%), emerging (5.1%) and advanced (1.7%) market averages. At this rate, India
will have the fastest growing insurance sector of the G20 countries. We expect robust
growth in life business (premiums up 6.7% in 2024‒28), supported by rising demand for
term life cover by the middle-class and the country’s young population, and also
increasing industry adoption of Insurtech. Non-life premiums are forecast to grow by an
annual average of 8.3% during 2024‒28, driven by economic growth, improvement in
distribution channels, government support and a favourable regulatory environment.
...after a slight moderation in growth In 2023 alone, premium growth moderated slightly from the previous year, reflecting
in 2023. still-in-process adjustments to the post COVID-19 era. We estimate that life premium
growth slowed to an estimated 4.1% from 5.9% in 2022 as memories (ie, risk
awareness) of the pandemic faded, and a recent change in tax norms for high-ticket
policies weighed on new premium growth. Non-life premium growth moderated slightly
from 9.0% in 2022 to an estimated 7.7% in 2023, as the market continued to stabilise
after the pandemic. Macro dynamics such as high interest rates, and elevated retail and
medical inflation also presented some headwinds to non-life sector growth.
Natural catastrophe risks grow Alongside the expanding economy and growing insurance market, India is exposed to
continuously, but associated insurance many natural catastrophes, including earthquakes, floods, tropical cyclones, drought and
penetration in India is still low. wildfires. However, insurance protection against natural catastrophe risks is low: our
resilience analysis indicates that 93% of the exposures are uninsured. Economic losses
due to natural disasters have been on an upward trend for many years, driven mainly by
economic growth and rapid urbanisation. India’s major cities have high population- and
asset-value concentrations, and many are exposed to multiple natural hazards. One
challenge in bridging the large protection gap is limited awareness and perception of the
risks. The industry also faces challenges in underwriting, with a need for more granular
data on existing natural catastrophe exposures, and establishing more robust modelling
capabilities. India has made strong progress in setting up early warning systems for
tropical cyclones, but there is a long way to go on this front for other hazards (eg, floods).
Government and regulatory initiatives The Indian government and insurance regulator have taken several steps to support
should support further development of industry growth. Important among these is the mission “Insurance for all by 2047”
India’s insurance market. launched in November 2022, the main aim of which is to ensure that every citizen and
enterprise has appropriate insurance cover/solution. There are also initiatives to attract
foreign interest to the market. These reforms, along with robust economic growth,
should support further development and expansion of the insurance sector.
India’s insurance market: growing fast with ample scope to build resilience Swiss Re Institute 3
Key takeaways
India’s insurance sector is on track for a strong growth
We forecast that India’s insurance market will be the fastest growing among the G20 nations with an average expected growth rate
of 7.1% over 2024‒28.
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Macroeconomic outlook
The global economy grew more The global economy held up better than anticipated in 2023 in the face of many
than anticipated in 2023, but we see challenges including inflation, tight financial conditions and escalating geopolitical
slowdown ahead. tensions. That said, divergence is rising and we expect a broad-based global slowdown
in 2024 as monetary policy headwinds strengthen and growth tailwinds fade. We
expect the US will continue to grow, although at a slower pace than last year, while
Europe’s economy stagnates and China continues to grapple with structural domestic
weaknesses. We estimate that global real GDP grew by 2.6% in 2023, down from 2.8%
in 2022, and that it will moderate further to 2.2% in 2024, the weakest since the global
financial crisis (1.2% over 2007‒09) other than during the pandemic. We forecast
strengthening growth of 2.7% in 2025. Price pressures should ease this year, but
inflation will remain above central bank targets in most advanced markets. Sovereign
bond yields in advanced economies rose to multi-year highs in 2023, signaling
normalisation in the cost of capital that we expect to persist mid-term.1
India’s economy remained resilient Meanwhile, India’s economy remained resilient in 2023 despite high inflation globally,
in 2023… rupee weakness and high borrowing costs. We expect India to remain among the fastest
growing economies this year, with strong private consumption, and public and private
sector fixed investments offering support. In its last few rounds of 2023, the Reserve
Bank of India’s (RBI) Consumer Confidence Survey consistently delivered positive
response on the year-ahead outlook, suggesting consumer spending will strengthen.2
We estimate that real GDP growth was around 6.7% in 2023, down from 7.2% in 2022,
and see slight moderation to 6.2% in 2024 (see Figure 1).3 Our medium-term outlook
remains positive, with average annual real GDP growth projected at 6.4% between 2024
and 2028. That puts growth in India ahead of major emerging Asia economies such as
China (4.3%) and Indonesia (4.9%), emerging Asia excluding China (5.6%), and also
emerging markets overall (3.7%).
Figure 1 10%
Real GDP growth trend (2017‒28F)
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
–2%
–4%
–6%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
… with private consumption and investment Last year, growth was driven mainly by strong private consumption (~58% of real GDP)
driving growth. and fixed investments. The monthly service and manufacturing Purchasing Managers’
Indices (PMI) remained above 50 throughout the year,4 supported by improved
China
1 sigma 6/2023 - Risks on the rise as headwinds blow stronger: Economic and insurance market outlook
India
2024/25, Swiss Re Institute.
2 Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting, Reserve Bank of India, 22 December 2023.
3 The years 2023 and Emerging Asia excl.
2024 = financial yearsChina
2023‒24 (April ‒ March) and 2024‒25 (April ‒ March).
This notation is followed throughout the report for India data points, unless stated otherwise.
4 A PMI number underEmerging
50 represents a contraction, at 50 indicates no change and above 50 is an expansion.
markets
Advanced markets
India’s insurance market: growing fast with ample scope to build resilience Swiss Re Institute 5
consumer confidence and pent-up demand. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
growth has also picked up momentum, reaching a 16-month high of 11.7% in October
2023 on the back of healthy expansion of the manufacturing sector and steep rise in
electricity output.5 On the investment side, both private and public capital expenditure
(capex) appears to have recovered. Private corporate investments, driven by bank and
financial institution-sanctioned projects, rose for the second year in a row in 2022
following a period of restraint in 2019 and 2020, and public capex increased by 37.4%
in 2023 compared to a 22.8% gain as in the budget statement of the previous year.6
Inflation remains cause for concern. Headline consumer price inflation remained elevated at an estimated 5.7% in 2023,
down from 6.7% in 2022 (see Figure 2). The RBI raised policy rates by 250 basis points
(bp) from 4% in April 2022 to 6.5% in March 2023 (see Figure 2). Headline inflation
declined to 5.6% in November 2023 from the peak of 7.4% in July 2023, while that of
food and beverages fell to 8.0% from 10.6% during the same period. We expect inflation
to remain elevated as headwinds from higher food prices due to El Nino effects, and
deficits in rainfall and other extreme weather conditions continue to put pressure on
prices. A deficit in the southwest monsoon season during June and September 2023 led
to crop losses and a low harvest, causing food prices to spike.7 As a result, the central
bank decided to keep policy rates on hold in December. We expect rates to remain on
hold till the impacts of last year’s hikes pass through to the economy, and inflation comes
down closer to the RBI’s target.
Figure 2 10%
India real GDP growth, CPI inflation (2017‒28F)
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
–2%
–4%
–6%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
We are positive on the medium-term We are positive on the medium-term economic outlook for India, there are downside
economic outlook for India, and cognizant risks. Elevated consumer prices pose a considerable risk to growth, leaving limited space
of some downside risks. for rate cuts, meaning still-high borrowing costs for capital investments. Further, India
depends on crude oil imports and any rise in energy prices due to the ongoing conflict in
CPI Inflation
the Middle East would further add inflation pressures. Meanwhile, the projected
slowdown in the global economy would impact exports, which might be exacerbated if
Real GDP growth
ongoing geopolitical conflicts disrupts global supply chain. This, along with the strong
US bond yield will weigh on the rupee, although we expect depreciation pressures to
ease in the latter part of 2024.
5 “Industrial production grows to 16-month high of 11.7% in October”, Indian Express, 13 December 2023.
6 Press release, Ministry of Finance, 1 February 2023, and ”Private Corporate Investment: Performance and
Near-term Outlook”, RBI Bulletin, August 2023.
7 Monetary Policy Statement, 2023-24 Resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee, October 4 to 6, 2023,
Reserve Bank of India, 2023.
6 Swiss Re Institute India’s insurance market: growing fast with ample scope to build resilience
Table 1
Snapshot of insurance markets, India and aggregate global regions
8 Insuring India by 2047- New Landscape for Insurance Sector, IRDAI, 25 November 2022.
9 “Life insurance companies clock a 25.28% drop in premiums, shows data”, Business Standard,
7 December 2023.
10 Calculations based on the monthly data (as per financial years) for new life insurance business from the IRDAI.
India’s insurance market: growing fast with ample scope to build resilience Swiss Re Institute 7
Figure 3
Life insurance premiums written (USD bn, LHS) in India, and total life real growth (%, RHS), for period 2017‒2028F
160 8%
120 6%
80 4%
40 2%
0 0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
We forecast that life business will grow We expect life premium growth to pick up and forecast an average annual increase of
by 6.7% in medium term. 6.7% in 2024‒28, supported by rising demand for term life cover by the middle-class,
younger demographic, and also increasing industry adoption of Insurtech.11 Growth will
be delivered through all distribution channels as insurers focus on expanding agency
Savings premiums
headcount and adding additional bank partners to diversify their channel mix. Individual
agents and bancassurance are the main distribution channels in India.12 To make the
Risk premiums bancassurance channel more efficient and increase its penetration, the IRDAI has put
together a taskforce with representatives from several banks and insurers.13 The
Real life premium growth
regulator is also actioning other initiatives to raise insurance penetration (see section
Regulatory Developments).
11 India Life Insurance Market Gaining Grounds Forecast to Grow at a CAGR of 6.0% by 2028, BlueWeave
Consulting, 1 January 2022.
12 India Insurance: We forecast better-than-expected life new business value in 1Q24 and prefer GIC Re over
primary players, Asia Pacific Equity Research, J.P. Morgan, 18 July 2023.
13 “Bancassurance channel: IRDAI constitutes taskforce to review model, carry out modifications”, The Hindu,
1 November 2023.
14 The Life & Health Insurance Inclusion Radar, Swiss Re Institute, 14 March 2023.
8 Swiss Re Institute India’s insurance market: growing fast with ample scope to build resilience
lity
y
Regulatory
Affordabilit
Underwriting
incentives
spectrum
and support
Socio-economic Financial
wellbeing literacy
it y
i bil
Access
Life insurance Distribution
reach diversity
There is scope to improve underwriting The idea of inclusive insurance is to offer relevant risk cover to all irrespective of income or
innovation in India, and to make insurance other socio-economic distinction. India’s “inclusivity strengths” relative to other markets
more affordable. are high use of financial services and strong regulatory support. Nevertheless, the analysis
also points to scope for improvement in underwriting innovation, and in terms of making
insurance more affordable. With upcoming initiatives from the IRDAI to increase insurance
penetration such as Bima Sugam, Bima Vahak and Bima Vistaar (see Regulatory
Developments on p18 for more on these initiatives), the market should become more
inclusive over the medium term by making insurance more affordable for more people.
Health insurance premiums to grow by Health is the largest line of non-life business in India, accounting for around 35% of sector
an estimated 11% in 2023, highest of all premiums written in 2023. We also estimate that with an 11% increase in premiums,
non-life lines. health saw the fastest growth of all non-life lines of business last year (though slower than
the 15% gain in 2022). This growth is supported by increased awareness over health,
supportive government policies, rising medical costs and innovations in Insurtech.
Although, price and income constraints may limit demand for the lower income groups,
the expanding middle class and increased discretionary spending should support overall
growth. Further, to provide health insurance to low-income households, Ayushman Bharat
– Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB-PMJAY) and State government extension
schemes are in place. Recently, AB-PMJAY achieved a milestone of generating 26 crore
Ayushman cards across India, with 49% of them held by females.17 In medium-term, we
forecast that health premiums will grow by 9.7% annually in 2024‒28, with regulatory
initiatives to improve the attractiveness of insurance offering some support.18
Motor premium growth to rise to an Motor is the second largest line of business in non-life, with nearly 32% market share.19
estimated 8.8% in 2023 from 7.9% We estimate that motor premiums grew by 8.8% last year, marginally higher than in 2022
in 2022, on the back of a jump-up in (7.9%). There has been a recovery in automobile sales since the first quarter of last year
auto sales. and the trend is expected to continue, with 6‒9% growth in private vehicle sales in the
next financial year, and 7‒10% for commercial vehicles.20 Sales are expected to remain
robust across the automotive segment over the medium to long term due to rising per
capita incomes, demographic profile, low vehicle penetration, and favourable policy
environment.21 In addition, there has been increasing demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in
the past two years and this will likely continue due to government subsidies under FAME-II
policy, higher awareness and more product launches.22 We forecast average annual
premium growth of 8.8% for the motor sector overall in the 2024‒28 period.
Real premium growth for crop insurance Agriculture insurance is the third largest line of business, accounting for around 12% of
flat in 2023. the non-life market. We estimate flat growth in 2023 due to a sharp decline (‒32%) in
premium rates in the Kharif cropping season (June to September).23 The declines more
than offset, in terms of millions of hectares, the increase in the insured land area and also
enrolments during the season. We expect agriculture premiums to start rising from 2024
onwards and forecast on average 2.5% real premium growth annually over the medium
term, supported by improvements in insurance infrastructure such as mobile applications
and remote sensing for crop loss monitoring. These will be supported by various
government initiatives to address current concerns around crop insurance. For example,
the government recently launched several new technological initiatives such as YES-Tech
Manual, WINDS portal, and enrolment app AIDE/Sahayak to assess crop damage via
satellite-based advanced technologies, and with door-to-door enrolment initiatives
making cover more accessible.24 In addition, in July 2023 the Minister of Agriculture
announced the de-linking of subsidies to ensure timely claims pay outs.25
Figure 5
Premium share by non-life line of business in India (USD bn, LHS), and total non-life real premium growth (%, RHS), for period 2017‒28F
80 12%
60 9%
40 6%
20 3%
0 0%
–20 –3%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Health and Personal Accident Motor Agriculture Fire Others Total non-life real premium growth
Source: Swiss Re Institute
19 There are two types of motor insurance in India : own damage and third-party insurance. Own damage is
voluntary, and third party is mandatory.
20 Absolute numbers from India: automobile industry sales by type 2023, Statista; growth forecast from
OpenMedia, ICRA.
21 “Electric two-wheelers lead EV sales in India, passenger vehicles to grow 6-9% in FY24: ICRA”, cnbctv18,
Others GWP
31 October 2023.
22 The Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME) Phase II policy launched in 2019 is a
Fire GWP subsidy programme to support demand for EVs. The subsidy amount depends on the type of vehicles and/or
capacity of battery.
Agriculture GWP 23 “Increase in farm insurance enrolments for two years in row”, Hindustan Times, 12 October 2023.
24 “Centre launches Technological Advancements in Crop Insurance to Empowering Farmers and Streamlining
...but between 2016 and 2022, its However, insurance resilience in India improved at a faster rate than the global average
insurance resilience improved at a faster during 2016 to 2022, across all categories, except for crop insurance. Crop resilience,
rate than the global average. though, improved in 2022 from 2021 due to increase in insurance coverage.
Meanwhile, India’s crop insurance protection gap (USD 31.1 billion in 2022) remains
high, accounting for more than a quarter of global protection gap (USD 113 billion), as
insurance penetration remains very low compared to growing crop output. India’s crop
resilience is important given that the country is the second largest producer of crops
globally and key to world food security. Natural catastrophe protection also improved,
from 5.6% in 2016 to 6.5% in 2022. Mortality and health resilience have positive
trends both in the short and long terms. Nevertheless, the resilience index readings
across all categories remain low compared to the global averages, pointing to the
significant scope to societal resilience with insurance. With our forecast for strong
growth in the coming years, India’s private re/insurance industry will help achieve this .
26 We measure resilience as how well an economy, business or household can withstand an unexpected
financial shock such as a natural catastrophe or the death of a breadwinner. The value of I-RI ranges from
0–100%. The greater the value, the greater the protection relative to the needs and the higher the resilience.
Protection gaps are measured in premium equivalent terms, which indicate the uninsured or unprotected
portion of total protection needs.
27 The protection gap is the uninsured or unprotected portion of the resources needed to fully mitigate risk.
For more on the insurance resilience indices, see sigma 2/2023: Restoring resilience, Swiss Re Institute.
India’s insurance market: growing fast with ample scope to build resilience Swiss Re Institute 11
Figure 6
Economic losses from natural catastrophes in India (USD bn, 2023 prices), for period 1970‒2022
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Multi-billion economic losses from Natural catastrophe events in India are typically rare (low frequency) but of high severity
single disaster events are becoming (resulting in large losses). That said, occurrence of multi-billion US dollar economic loss
more common. events is becoming more common. India is exposed to seismic and weather-related
hazards, many driven by the summer monsoon (June ‒ September) season when the
country receives about 80% of its annual rainfall, leading to inundation in different areas
every year.30,31 Since the turn of the century, there have been a number of large-loss flood
events including in Mumbai in 2005, Uttarakhand (Kedarnath) in 2013, Jammu and
Kashmir in 2014, Chennai in 2015, Kerala in 2018 and northern India in 2023, the latter
also hitting the capital city. Single flood events causing economic losses of more than
USD 1 billion have become more regular. There were 11 such events in 2013‒22 compared
with six in 2003‒12. Tropical cyclones also strike India, typically impacting West Bengal,
Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu on the east coast, and Gujarat on the west coast.
Recent cyclones like Hudhud (2014), Vardah (2016), Fani (2019), Taukte (2021) and Yaas
(2021) caused economic losses of more than USD 2 billion (inflation adjusted).
28 India’s insurance market: poised for rapid growth, Swiss Re Institute, 2023.
29 sigma 1/2023: Natural catastrophes and inflation in 2022: a perfect storm, Swiss Re Institute.
30 “Indian summer monsoon gets a new theory”, Nature India, 30 March 2018.
31 “Influence of monsoon low pressure systems on South Asian disasters and implications for disaster
Economic growth and urbanisation have With rapid economic growth and urbanisation, the exposure landscape in India has
fundamentally altered the risk landscape. changed fundamentally. India’s economy has grown from USD 317 billion in 1980 (at
2022 prices and FX) to USD 3 465 billion in 2022, an increase of around 995%. This
development has been mostly concentrated in urban areas, primarily a few major cities.
The total urban population of the country increased by ~200% between 1980 and
2022, and more than 500 million people currently live in urban areas (see Figure 7).32
Other macroeconomic drivers such as inflation add upwards pressure to losses.
Figure 7
India GDP (USD bn at 2022 prices and FX, LHS) and urban population (millions, RHS)
4 000 600
3 000 450
2 000 300
1 000 150
0 0
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Source: Swiss Re Institute
Major urban centres can be in the eye of Figure 8 provides indication of the extent of exposure to water inundation (river, coastal
the storm. and flash flooding) of India’s four biggest cities. The high built-up areas overlap with
areas of high and medium flood risk. The figure also shows the tracks of recent cyclones
GDP in USD bn
(Amphan in Kolkata and Vardha in Chennai), which show that these large urban areas
can very much be in the eye of the storm.
Urban Population
Yamuna
River
Insurance penetration in India is low. With low insurance penetration, the large economic losses inflicted by natural
catastrophes in India are mostly uninsured. The Swiss Re Institute’s Natural Catastrophe
Resilience Index reading for India was 7% in 2022, indicating that 93% of the exposures
remain uninsured. That coverage which exists is mostly limited to major cities, meaning
that sizable insured losses register only when a disaster hits urban areas, as was the case
with the Chennai (2015) and Mumbai (2005) floods.
...and highest in the Himalaya Geographically, the risk is highest in the Himalayan mountain range that runs from
mountain range. Assam in the east (Mw 8.6 earthquake in 1950) to Kashmir in the west (Mw 7.6
earthquake in 2005).34 The range is one of the most seismically active regions in the
world, but the economic risk is low. In terms of economic loss potential, New Delhi,
Mumbai and the states of Gujarat and Maharashtra are most exposed, given high
population and asset value concentrations. Across India, more than 25% of building
stock is exposed to high and very high earthquake risks.35
33 GHS built-up volume grids derived from joint assessment of Sentinel2, Landsat, and global DEM data, multi-
temporal (1975‒2030), Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 2023; and based on Swiss Re’s global
flood zones, global pluvial flood zones and global storm surge zones, proprietary models.
34 sigma 1/2016 - Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2015, Swiss Re.
35 Distribution of Houses by Predominant Materials of Roof and Wall and Level of Damage Risk, Ministry of
Exposure growth and inflation The Bhuj earthquake registered Mw 7.6 and, in terms of losses, was one of the most
have greatly increased the loss potential devastating events in India over the last few decades. As per sigma records, the quake
of seismic events. caused USD 4 billion in economic losses, of which just USD 100 million were insured,
(in 2001 prices). Over the last two decades, the GDP of the state of Gujarat has grown
by more than 25 times. Primarily owing to the associated growth in exposures and
inflation, we estimate that if the Bhuj earthquake were to occur today, the insured
losses would be 30-times greater than in 2001, upwards of USD 3 billion. According to
Swiss Re’s proprietary model, nationwide a loss potential of this degree has a return
period of around 50 years. Assuming insurance penetration of 7‒10%, the economic
losses would be between USD 30–40 billion.36 There is large uncertainly around this
estimate due to a lack of high-quality data. Exposure data is available at state level
(coarse resolution) only, not at zip code or coordinate level (fine resolution). However, it
is safe to say that losses of this magnitude are not the most severe that an earthquake
in India could impart. For example, the impact from an earthquake with epicentre in the
Himalayas but from which the ripples extend as far as Delhi or, alternatively, a smaller
event with epicentre close to main city like Mumbai or Delhi, could result in losses that
far exceed those that the Bhuj earthquake would generate today.
Better data and models are key to building Figure 9 shows the exposure of urban concentration in Mumbai and Delhi to seismic
earthquake resilience. hazard. Note that these cities are also exposed to soil liquefaction, which induces
ground deformation and makes buildings and infrastructure more vulnerable to
damage. Delhi is located on the banks of River Yamuna on a bed of very soft soil, and
liquefaction can amplify seismic waves and associated damage potential.37 Similar
liquefaction risk exists in Mumbai because of building on land reclaimed from the sea,
alluvium soil types and large water bodies within city.38 The vulnerability of buildings
adds to the risk. In Delhi alone, around 90% falls under the category of unreinforced
masonry, which is not quake resistant.39 Models need to take the multi-facetted nature
of existing exposures into account to deliver effective underwriting and narrow
protection gaps. Enforcing more stringent building codes would be a first step towards
reducing loss potential.
Source: European Commission Joint Research Centre, Swiss Re CatNet, Swiss Re Institute
36 Our assumption is based on Swiss Re Institute’s 2022 Natural Catastrophe Resilience Index reading for India
of 7% (see sigma 2/2023 op. cit.). As Bhuj is an industrial state, insurance penetration is likely higher that
the national aggregate.
37 See Delhi Disaster Management Plan (2016-17), Delhi Disaster Management Authority.
40 Seismic hazard on local soil, calculated based on the GEM 2018 bedrock hazard (available from Global Hazard
Map ‒ Global Earthquake Model), and VS30 from slope from US Geological Survey.
India’s insurance market: growing fast with ample scope to build resilience Swiss Re Institute 15
̤ Climate change effects can amplify natural catastrophe risks. For example,
the glaciers in the Himalayan region are melting due to rising temperatures. What’s
left behind are lakes dammed by unstable natural materials called moraines. When
moraines destabilise beyond a point, the dams can fail resulting in so-called glacial
lake outburst floods (GLOF). During the Uttarakhand flood in 2013,41 large scale
devastation was caused by the Chorabari GLOF that resulted when intense rainfall in
the area added water volume to the lake.42 Climate change may also exacerbate
floods, tropical cyclones and wildfires.43
̤ Poor risk assessment for public sector infrastructure projects. As per a recent
Swiss Re report, often pre-feasibility studies for infrastructure do not include
comprehensive risk assessment, and the criteria for selecting bidders overlook
candidates’ own risk management capabilities.48 Currently, insurance coverage for
infrastructure risks is fragmented and often commoditised. Contractors can arrange
insurance with high deductibles (to obtain premium discounts), potentially leading to
inadequate indemnification at the time of claim.
41 “Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
vol. 117, no. 2, 2019.
42 Uttarakhand Disaster 2013, National Institute of Disaster Management, 2014.
43 The recent IPCC 6th assessment report notes that the South Asia region (Indian sub-continent) has high
probability of intensification of coastal flooding (mostly accompanying tropical cyclones) and pluvial flooding,
and medium probability of intensification of river floods, landslides, and fire weather under SSP3 to SSP5
scenarios, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, August 2021.
44 In July 2021, Swiss Re conducted a survey among consumers aged 25 to 54, focusing on their behaviours
and risk perceptions related to their homes, transportation, employment, and lifestyle. See Digital adoption
in personal P&C insurance in south and southeast Asia, Swiss Re Institute, 31 October 2021
45 “Kerala floods: PSU insurers likely to be worst hit as claims touch Rs 2 000 crore”, moneycontrol.com,
24 October 2018.
46 “Despite Compulsion, More Than 50% Vehicles In India Running Without Insurance, Says Govt”, India Times,
21 March 2023.
47 “On Improving Awareness about Crop Insurance in India”, Review of Agrarian Studies, vol. 1, 2019
48 Infrastructure resilience: De-risking transport infrastructure projects in India, Swiss Re Institute, July 2023.
16 Swiss Re Institute India’s insurance market: growing fast with ample scope to build resilience
̤ Early warning systems (EWS) for natural disasters and concurrent preparedness
have proved effective in saving lives. India has made significant improvement. EWS
for tropical cyclone are now in place for 100% of the population exposed to cyclone
risk.49 This has helped save millions of lives and has reduced loss potential in the
agriculture (fisheries), shipping and aviation industries.50 However, with respect to
flood exposures, while about two-thirds of the county’s population is exposed to
extreme inundation risk, only a third is covered by EWS.44 Significant improvement
is needed to cover the entire population with multi-hazard EWS that red flag all
hazards, including floods, droughts, wildfires and heatwaves.
Insurance is one tool to strengthen Risk transfer: The insurance industry has traditional solutions to help manage financial
resilience... losses that result from natural catastrophes (see Figure 9). For individuals, insurance
provides a financial safety net to cover for losses due to loss of earnings, damage to and/
or destruction of dwellings and other assets. For companies, insurance helps cover both
physical damage and revenue loss due to business interruption. At state level,
re/insurance solutions can support governments in relief and rehabilitation work, in
reinstating crucial services and in the rebuilding of public infrastructure (eg, schools,
hospitals, roads, railways, water supply networks, railways stations, stadiums etc).
...than can help government to cover the Additional efforts are needed to reduce the natural catastrophe protection gap. The
costs of relief and rehabiliation. recent development of parametric insurance solutions can help finance state efforts to
re-build affected regions. Similarly, an insurance pool can encourage adoption of risk
transfer solutions. In 2013, the IRDAI and the National Disaster Management Authority
(NDMA) presented an action plan that includes risk transfer solutions applicable to
individuals, businesses, state governments, public utilities and the federal government.54
49 Strengthening India’s Disaster Preparedness with Technology, Council on Energy, Environment and Water,
13 July 2023.
50 Opinion: Early disaster warnings from India Meteorological Department benefit all South Asia, The Third Pole,
28 January 2023.
51 “Residents recount the horror of earthquake, reiterate demolition”, livemint.com, 9 November 2022.
52 DDMA begins demolition of quake-damaged building in east Delhi, Business Standard, 28 May 2015.
53 “Seismic Performance Enhancement of Unreinforced Brick Masonry Buildings by Retrofitting with Reinforced
Concrete Bands: Full Scale Experiments”, Journal of Structural Engineering, vol. 148, 2022.
54 Disaster Relief and Risk Transfer Through Insurance, IRDAI-National Disaster Management Authority,
Figure 10
Risk transfer solutions to reduce the protection gap
Risk transfer
Who gets affected? How they get affected?
Insurance solutions
Traditional solutions for public assets:
Loss of and/or damage to public
buildings, utilities and infrastructure
infrastructure and assets
Innovative solutions like parametric
Emergency relief and
Public sector insurance for all direct and indirect effects,
rehabilitation needs
including loss of livelihoods
Regulatory developments
The vision is insurance for all. Insurance for all by 2047: The IRDAI has been working towards expanding the reach of
insurance in India and launched the mission “Insurance for all by 2047” in November
2022. It aims to increase insurance penetration and ensure that every citizen and
enterprise has appropriate insurance cover/solution, and to also make the Indian
insurance sector attractive for foreign investment.55 To achieve this, among others the
IRDAI is working on several initiatives and reforms around improving ease of doing
business, facilitating InsurTech and promoting distribution agility.
Bima Trinity will make insurance more Bima Trinity: Bima Sugam, Bima Vahak and Bima Vistaar: The IRDAI launched three
accessible and affordable. major initiatives – Bima Sugam, Bima Vahak and Bima Vistaar – to raise insurance
penetration, in particular in semi-urban areas, rural towns and villages. “Bima Sugam” is
an online portal to facilitate the buying of insurance, portability facilities, the ability to
change insurance agents and the settling of life, motor and health claims directly with
insurers. “Bima Vahak” is a women-centric insurance distribution channel. “Bima Vistaar”
is a social safety net accessible to all through the Bima Sugam platform. It will bundle life,
health, causality, and property insurance solutions.
The ’use & file’ procedure will help raise Extend “use-and-file” procedure to individual and Group Unit-Linked products:
increase penetration. To provide consumers with more options and increase penetration, the IRDAI has
broadened the application of the “use-and-file” approach in June 2023 to encompass life
insurance products.56 Previously, use and file was applicable to health and general
insurance products only. The change enables insurance companies to introduce new
products upfront and subsequently furnish the required information to the regulator.
A RBS framework will assess insurers Risk-based supervisory (RBS) framework: With a focus on nurturing a principle-
based on their risk profile. centered regulatory system, encouraging business-friendly approaches and facilitating
proactive recognition and handling of risks, through an RBS framework, the IRDAI will
assess insurers based on their overall risk profile based on certain specified parameters.57
The FRBs minimum capital requirement has Amendments to reinsurance regulations: The IRDAI approved a series of amendments
been reduced. to the reinsurance regulations during its 123rd Authority Meeting held in August 2023 to
position India as a global reinsurance hub. Key changes include reducing Foreign
Reinsurance Branches’ (FRB) minimum capital requirement to USD 6.07 million (INR 500
million) from USD 12.15 million (INR 1 000 million), and streamline the regulator’s order
of preference of cession by Indian insurers to reinsurers to four from six levels. Reinsurance
formats have been simplified, and the International Financial Service Centre Insurance
Offices’ (IIOs) framework has been aligned with that of the International Financial Services
Centres Authority (IFSCA) rules for better competitiveness.
Indian insurance industry likely to adopt New accounting system (IFRS 17 or Ind AS 117): India’s insurance industry is
IFRS 17 by 1 April 2025. working towards adoption of IFRS 17 (or Ind AS 117) by 1 April 2025.58 Implementation
is expected to take place in phased manner, with 15 insurers (10 life and 5 non-life) in
the first phase identified based on listing and Asset under Management (AUM) criteria.59
This could transform the insurance segment’s accounting rules, but will not
fundamentally alter insurers’ underlying financial positions as it does not change the risk
structure and economic profitability of underlying operations.60
55 Insuring India by 2047 - New landscape for Insurance Sector, IRDAI, 25 November 2022.
56 The ‘use-and-file’ procedure allows insurers to launch a product first and then provide details to the regulator.
See “IRDAI expands ‘use and file’ procedure to more life products,” The Hindu, 24 June 2023.
57 “IRDAI to roll out first phase of pilot for ‘Risk Based Supervision’ from July”, Financial Express, 28 June 2023.
58 “Top 15 insurance companies to adopt Ind-AS from April 2024”, Financial Express, 7 August 2023.
59 Minutes of Meeting held on 28 th July 2023 at Insurance Institute of India, BKC Mumbai on IFRS17/Ind AS
August 2023.
Published by:
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Authors
Dr. Roopali Aggarwal
Dr. Chandan Banerjee
Dr. Mahesh H Puttaiah
Parvinder Singh
Contributors
Alexandra Kälin
Dr. Prabhu M.
Editor
Paul Ronke
Managing editor
Dr Li Xing
Head of Insurance Market Analysis
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