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present the

Aviation
Forecasting
Conference
A 360° air transport outlook to accurately anticipate passenger,
fleet and capacity requirements for the next decade and beyond
8th & 9th February 2005 • Vienna Marriott Hotel, Austria

An exceptional gathering of industry experts including:

■ Mohamed Elamiri, Director, Air Transport Bureau, ICAO
■ Robert J. Aaronson, Director General,
Airports Council International
■ Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA
■ George Paulson, Director ATM Programmes,
Eurocontrol
■ Dr. Josef Burger, Member of Executive Board & Chief
Commercial Officer, Austrian Airlines
■ Bruno Matheu, Executive VP Marketing & Network
Management, Air France
■ Andrew Sentance, Chief Economist, British Airways
■ Martin Kacur, CEO, Czech Airports Authority
■ Peter Davies, CEO, SN Brussels Airlines
■ Stan Maiden, Research Director, BAA
■ Peter Morris, Chief Economist, Airclaims
■ Jean-Marie Chevallier, Director of Airports Planning,
Aéroports de Paris
Lead sponsor
■ Paul Behnke, Director, Economics & Statistics,
Airports Council International
■ Abdul Wahab Teffaha, Secretary General,
Arab Air Carriers Organisation
■ Simon McNamara, Manager, Infrastructure &
Environment, ERAA
■ David Henderson, Manager Information, AEA
■ Wolfgang Kurth, President, ELFAA & CEO,
Hapag-Lloyd Express
■ Dr. Peter Morrell, Senior Lecturer, Cranfield University
■ Laurent Rouaud, Vice President Market Forecasts &
Research, Airbus
■ Claus Ulrich, Airport Coordinator,
Germany & Chairman EUACA
■ Bill Swan, Chief Economist, Boeing
■ Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice President, Avitas
In partnership with Lead Media Sponsor

Air & Business

Travel News
www.abtn.co.uk

www.airfinanceconferences.com

&
present the
Aviation
Forecasting
Conference
8th & 9th February 2005 • Vienna Marriott Hotel, Austria
Day One Tuesday 8th February 2005
08.30 Registration & refreshments
09.00 Chairman’s opening remarks
Peter Morris, Chief Economist, Airclaims
09.10 Review of the state of the aviation industry
■ Economic trends over the past decade and their impact on
the aviation industry
■ Impact of regulatory decisions on the natural development of
the industry
■ Evaluating the accuracy of past forecasts - where do they fit
in now?
■ Setting the scene for the future
Mohamed Elamiri, Director, Air Transport Bureau, ICAO
09.40 The challenge of forecasting in the new world
■ Are the old methods enough to forecast for the future?
■ Reviewing assumptions
■ Variables for forecasting in the short, medium and long-term
■ Scenario planning in your forecast – what to include?
■ Models, tools and techniques
Peter Morris, Chief Economist, Airclaims
10.10 Building regulatory constraints into the forecasting
model - evaluating the current environment
■ Progress in Open Skies
■ Competition - protector or inhibitor?
■ Security and safety
■ Environmental constraints and developments
Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA
10.40 Morning Coffee
11.10 Forecasting trends in travel and tourism for the
next decade
■ The outlook for air travel and tourism
■ Long-haul vs. short-haul
■ Website booking and the package holiday
Dr. Peter Morrell, Senior Lecturer, Cranfield University
11.40 Panel discussion: Where next for aviation?
Speakers from the morning will join representatives of major
aviation associations to discuss and debate their outlook on
the industry and the prospects for growth and development
Moderator: Dr. Peter Morrell, Senior Lecturer,
Cranfield University
Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA
Paul Behnke, Director, Economics & Statistics,
Airports Council International
© Airfinance Journal & Euromoney Seminars 2004
Some questions facing the aviation industry:
■ Is aviation moving out of recession?
■ Should airlines be ordering aircraft?
■ Will oil stay at US$50 a barrel?
■ Can low-cost airlines sustain their current pace of growth?
■ Can existing infrastructure in the air and on the ground
support growth?
■ Will yields be high enough to allow airlines to grow?
■ Is your company’s strategy the right one for the next five,
ten or twenty years?
■ Can the industry finally put the past few years behind it and
begin developing strategies and plans for growth in the
medium and long-term?
To find the answers to these and other important questions join
the senior representatives from aviation’s key associations and
C O N F E R E N C
Simon McNamara, Manager, Infrastructure &
Environment, European Regions Airline Association
Wolfgang Kurth, President, European Low Fare
Airlines Association & CEO, Hapag-Lloyd Express
David Henderson, Manager, Information,
Association of European Airlines
George Paulson, Director ATM Programmes,
Eurocontrol
12.40 Lunch
Keynote lunchtime address: Robert J. Aaronson,
Director General, Airports Council International
14.00 Regional roundup - air transport outlook in North
America, Asia and the Middle East
Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice President, Avitas
Abdul Wahab Teffaha, Secretary General, Arab Air
Carriers Organisation
15.00 The low cost phenomenon - where does it go
from here?
■ Market drivers - opportunity or real market need?
■ Passenger demographics
■ Can pricing be sustained with increased pressure on yields?
■ Potential for consolidation
■ Where next? Can low cost be taken long-haul?
Wolfgang Kurth, President, European Low Fare
Airlines Association & CEO, Hapag-Lloyd Express
15.30 Afternoon Tea
16.00 Can airline finances sustain future growth?
■ Why has airline financial performance been so poor?
■ What is the outlook for airline profitability?
■ Are current growth forecasts consistent with financial projections?
■ How can the industry become financially sustainable?
Andrew Sentance, Chief Economist, British Airways
16.30 Panel discussion: Overcoming the challenges of
forecasting for recovery, growth and development
in the industry
■ The future for pricing
■ How much more can costs be cut?
■ Consolidation in the industry - mergers and acquisitions
■ Future for airline alliances and partnerships
■ Matching capacity with demand - who will survive?
■ The view for the future - will all airlines be low cost or will the
network carrier rise again?
Moderator: Chris Tarry, Managing Director,
Aviation Industry Research & Advisory
 companies who make up the exceptional speaker panel at the
Aviation Forecasting conference. Take the opportunity to hear
IATA, ICAO, Airports Council International and Eurocontrol discuss
and debate what they forecast for the next decade and beyond.
Discover how three of Europe’s leading airlines, Air France, British
Airways and Austrian Airlines are overcoming the challenges of
anticipating future passenger demands. Share in the steps that
BAA, Aéroports de Paris and Czech Airports Authority are taking to
overcome physical and environmental constraints to growth.
Far from being a talking shop, the two-day agenda is designed for
you to benchmark your own forecast to ensure its reliability and
accuracy. Highlights include:
■ A round table discussion with all the aviation associations
together debating how they see the future of the industry.
Essential knowledge to incorporate into your own forecast
C E A G E N
Peter Davies, CEO, SN Brussels Airlines
Bruno Matheu, Executive Vice President Marketing &
Network Management, Air France
Dr. Josef Burger, Member of Executive Board & Chief
Commercial Officer, Austrian Airlines
17.30 End of Day One
Followed by evening drinks reception
Day Two Wednesday 9th February 2005
08.30 Welcoming Refreshments
08.50 Chairman’s opening remarks
09.00 Aircraft manufacturer outlook for the next decade
- what will drive demand for new aircraft?
■ What are the order books saying?
■ Which markets are seeking which type of aircraft?
■ What does the market want? Bigger or faster aircraft - the
A380 vs. B7E7 fragmentation debate.
■ Innovations in future aircraft designs to reduce the cost
burden on airlines
Bill Swan, Chief Economist, Boeing
Laurent Rouaud, Vice President Market Forecasts &
Research, Commercial - CVR, Airbus
10.00 The Airclaims forecast
■ Independent aircraft forecast to 2020
■ Demand for aircraft services by region and by type
Francois Dormoy, Chief Consultant, Airclaims
International Transport and Tourism Consultancy
(ITTC)
Clemence Routaboul, Senior Analyst, Airclaims
International Transport and Tourism Consultancy
(ITTC)
10.30 Morning Coffee
11.00 Outlook for jet fuel
■ Pricing, hedging, politics
Cristina Haus, Managing Editor, Jet Fuel Intelligence
11.30 Case study: Forecasting fleet composition for the
next decade
Dr. Josef Burger, Member of Executive Board & Chief
Commercial Officer, Austrian Airlines
Airfinance Journal & Euromoney Seminars reserves the right to alter the venue and/or speakers. Airfinance Journal & Euromoney Seminars are divisions of Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC.
■ A key session on how the low cost market has transformed the
market - discover whether this major industry shift is here to
stay and if so how your business can fully exploit the benefits
■ Hear from the major aircraft manufacturers on their plans for
the fleet of the future. Find out which aircraft type will suit your
business best - smaller, bigger or faster?
■ Find out how airports and air traffic managers are planning to
cope with the anticipated huge growth in traffic. What steps
does your business need to take to build capacity planning
into your forecast?
■ Gain a crucial update on the slot debate - hear first hand how
the coordinators plan to allocate and control the valuable take
off and landing slots in the future.
This conference is an unrivalled 360° air transport
outlook. Don’t miss it.
D A
12.05 Case study: Implications of EU Accession on
one airport’s expansion plans and forecast for
future traffic
Martin Kacur, CEO, Czech Airports Authority
12.40 Lunch
14.00 Slot management into the next decade
Claus Ulrich, Airport Coordinator Germany & Chairman,
EUACA
14.35 Case study: Planning airport capacity to
accommodate the fleet of the future
■ Forecasting the long-term fleet mix
■ Implications on airport facilities of the changes in the design
of aircraft e.g. A380
■ Impact of the increased use of regional jets on the efficient
use of airport runways and terminals
■ Building flexibility into airport planning - ensuring that long-term
assumptions do not impede short and medium-term operations
Jean-Marie Chevallier, Director of Airports Planning,
Aéroports de Paris
15.10 Afternoon Tea
15.30 Case study: Where do airports see most growth
in the industry?
■ Network carriers or low cost?
■ Impact on development plans?
Stan Maiden, Research Director, BAA Plc.
16.10 Forecasting air traffic control in the next decade
■ Capacity and congestion in the air
■ Progress towards a single sky
George Paulson, Director ATM Programmes,
Eurocontrol
16.45 Closing panel - the next 100 years of flight
Join a panel of industry experts, including speakers from
both days, who will share their outlook for aviation in the
coming years
■ Key markets - India, China, Brazil?
■ Technology predictions
■ What if:
- US airlines melt down?
- Oil prices stay at US$50 per barrel?
- Airline mergers and acquisition are allowed?
Moderator: Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice President,
Avitas
17.30 Close of conference
 I would like to register for Aviation Forecasting Conference
8th & 9th February 2005 • Vienna Marriott Hotel, Austria
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Aviation Forecasting Conference • 8th & 9th February 2005 • Vienna Marriott Hotel, Austria
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