Historical Financial Statement - Varun Beverages

Years Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 LTM

Income Statement
Sales ₹ 2,502.4 ₹ 3,394.1 ₹ 3,861.2 ₹ 4,003.5 ₹ 5,105.3 ₹ 7,129.6 ₹ 6,450.1 ₹ 8,823.2 ₹ 13,173.1 ₹ 16,042.6 ₹ 16,042.6
Sales Growth - 35.64% 13.76% 3.69% 27.52% 39.65% -9.53% 36.79% 49.30% 21.78% 0.00%

COGS ₹ 1,801.9 ₹ 2,303.3 ₹ 2,470.2 ₹ 2,587.8 ₹ 3,213.8 ₹ 4,555.5 ₹ 4,185.4 ₹ 5,708.4 ₹ 8,447.6 ₹ 9,939.5 ₹ 12,433.8
COGS % Sales 72.01% 67.86% 63.98% 64.64% 62.95% 63.90% 64.89% 64.70% 64.13% 61.96% 77.50%

Gross Profit ₹ 700.51 ₹ 1,090.85 ₹ 1,390.97 ₹ 1,415.77 ₹ 1,891.51 ₹ 2,574.11 ₹ 2,264.77 ₹ 3,114.86 ₹ 4,725.52 ₹ 6,103.07 ₹ 3,608.80
Gross Margins 27.99% 32.14% 36.02% 35.36% 37.05% 36.10% 35.11% 35.30% 35.87% 38.04% 22.50%

Selling & General Expenses ₹ 313.62 ₹ 448.38 ₹ 581.46 ₹ 577.44 ₹ 855.71 ₹ 1,111.79 ₹ 1,049.81 ₹ 1,420.91 ₹ 1,862.52 ₹ 2,386.33
S&G Exp % Sales 12.53% 13.21% 15.06% 14.42% 16.76% 15.59% 16.28% 16.10% 14.14% 14.87% 0.00%

EBITDA ₹ 386.89 ₹ 642.47 ₹ 809.51 ₹ 838.33 ₹ 1,035.80 ₹ 1,462.32 ₹ 1,214.96 ₹ 1,693.95 ₹ 2,863.00 ₹ 3,716.74 ₹ 3,642.47
EBITDA Margins 15.46% 18.93% 20.97% 20.94% 20.29% 20.51% 18.84% 19.20% 21.73% 23.17% 22.70%

Interest ₹ 187.36 ₹ 170.15 ₹ 434.74 ₹ 214.59 ₹ 222.80 ₹ 324.31 ₹ 293.74 ₹ 206.97 ₹ 204.09 ₹ 291.60 ₹ 268.10
Interest % Sales 7.49% 5.01% 11.26% 5.36% 4.36% 4.55% 4.55% 2.35% 1.55% 1.82% 1.67%

Depreciation ₹ 210.06 ₹ 317.41 ₹ 322.21 ₹ 346.64 ₹ 385.07 ₹ 488.63 ₹ 528.70 ₹ 531.26 ₹ 617.19 ₹ 680.91 ₹ 680.91
Depreciation%Sales 8.39% 9.35% 8.34% 8.66% 7.54% 6.85% 8.20% 6.02% 4.69% 4.24% 4.24%

Earnings Before Tax -₹ 10.53 ₹ 154.91 ₹ 52.56 ₹ 277.10 ₹ 427.93 ₹ 649.38 ₹ 392.5 ₹ 955.7 ₹ 2,041.7 ₹ 2,744.2 ₹ 2,693.5
EBT % Sales -0.42% 4.56% 1.36% 6.92% 8.38% 9.11% 6.09% 10.83% 15.50% 17.11% 16.79%

Tax ₹ 24.8 ₹ 78.9 ₹ 31.3 ₹ 76.9 ₹ 133.9 ₹ 224.1 ₹ 5.2 ₹ 260.6 ₹ 473.5 ₹ 637.6 ₹ 637.5
Effective Tax Rate -235.61% 50.90% 59.55% 27.75% 31.30% 34.51% 1.33% 27.26% 23.19% 23.23% 23.67%

Net Profit (₹ 35.3) ₹ 76.1 ₹ 21.3 ₹ 200.2 ₹ 294.0 ₹ 425.3 ₹ 387.3 ₹ 695.2 ₹ 1,568.2 ₹ 2,106.7 ₹ 2,055.9
Net Margins -1.41% 2.24% 0.55% 5.00% 5.76% 5.97% 6.00% 7.88% 11.90% 13.13% 12.82%

No of Equity Shares 90.3 90.3 123.06 123.26 123.3 129.92 129.92 129.92 129.91 129.92 129.92

Earnings per Share -₹ 0.39 ₹ 0.84 ₹ 0.17 ₹ 1.62 ₹ 2.38 ₹ 3.27 ₹ 2.98 ₹ 5.35 ₹ 12.07 ₹ 16.22 ₹ 15.82
EPS Growth % -315.22% -79.49% 840.15% 46.81% 37.29% -8.94% 79.50% 125.60% 34.33% -2.41%

Dividend per Share - - - ₹ 0.4 ₹ 0.4 ₹ 0.6 ₹ 0.6 ₹ 0.8 ₹ 1.7 ₹ 2.3 -
Dividend payout ratio 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 22.80% 15.53% 16.97% 18.63% 15.57% 14.50% 13.88% 0.00%

Retained Earnings 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 77.20% 84.47% 83.03% 81.37% 84.43% 85.50% 86.12% 100.00%
Balance Sheet
Equity Share Capital ₹ 133.8 ₹ 133.8 ₹ 182.3 ₹ 182.6 ₹ 182.6 ₹ 288.7 ₹ 288.7 ₹ 433.0 ₹ 649.6 ₹ 649.6
Reserves ₹ 9.3 ₹ 90.5 ₹ 1,511.3 ₹ 1,586.8 ₹ 1,815.9 ₹ 3,039.7 ₹ 3,235.3 ₹ 3,646.9 ₹ 4,452.8 ₹ 6,286.9
Borrowings ₹ 2,415.3 ₹ 2,077.4 ₹ 2,215.4 ₹ 2,653.7 ₹ 2,807.9 ₹ 3,417.2 ₹ 3,216.1 ₹ 3,386.8 ₹ 3,883.8 ₹ 5,431.3
Other Liabilities ₹ 733.3 ₹ 2,129.6 ₹ 915.4 ₹ 852.5 ₹ 1,191.6 ₹ 1,630.0 ₹ 1,707.2 ₹ 2,112.8 ₹ 2,632.1 ₹ 2,819.4
Total Liabilities ₹ 3,291.6 ₹ 4,431.3 ₹ 4,824.4 ₹ 5,275.6 ₹ 5,998.0 ₹ 8,375.6 ₹ 8,447.4 ₹ 9,579.5 ₹ 11,618.2 ₹ 15,187.2

Fixed Assets Net Block ₹ 2,354.9 ₹ 3,495.6 ₹ 3,715.5 ₹ 3,980.5 ₹ 4,387.0 ₹ 6,479.0 ₹ 6,408.6 ₹ 6,310.8 ₹ 6,932.2 ₹ 8,409.2
Capital Work in Progress ₹ 24.8 ₹ 37.9 ₹ 95.6 ₹ 145.4 ₹ 352.4 ₹ 63.8 ₹ 66.8 ₹ 496.6 ₹ 606.6 ₹ 1,922.2
Investments ₹ 303.7 ₹ 3.3 ₹ 6.9 ₹ 8.2 ₹ 11.2 - - - ₹ 0.0 ₹ 21.1
Other Assets ₹ 187.3 ₹ 313.9 ₹ 319.5 ₹ 457.8 ₹ 447.5 ₹ 607.6 ₹ 611.3 ₹ 766.1 ₹ 1,500.9 ₹ 1,864.9
Total Non Current Assets ₹ 2,870.7 ₹ 3,850.6 ₹ 4,137.4 ₹ 4,592.0 ₹ 5,198.1 ₹ 7,150.4 ₹ 7,086.7 ₹ 7,573.5 ₹ 9,039.7 ₹ 12,217.4

Receivables ₹ 97.3 ₹ 97.9 ₹ 131.4 ₹ 150.3 ₹ 128.0 ₹ 172.6 ₹ 241.8 ₹ 221.3 ₹ 299.3 ₹ 359.4
Inventory ₹ 289.3 ₹ 424.7 ₹ 489.9 ₹ 438.9 ₹ 578.4 ₹ 881.5 ₹ 928.8 ₹ 1,448.1 ₹ 1,993.9 ₹ 2,150.5
Cash & Bank ₹ 34.4 ₹ 58.1 ₹ 65.7 ₹ 94.5 ₹ 93.5 ₹ 171.1 ₹ 190.1 ₹ 336.6 ₹ 285.3 ₹ 459.9
Total Current Assets ₹ 421.0 ₹ 580.6 ₹ 687.0 ₹ 683.6 ₹ 799.9 ₹ 1,225.2 ₹ 1,360.7 ₹ 2,006.0 ₹ 2,578.5 ₹ 2,969.8

Total Assets ₹ 3,291.6 ₹ 4,431.3 ₹ 4,824.4 ₹ 5,275.6 ₹ 5,998.0 ₹ 8,375.6 ₹ 8,447.4 ₹ 9,579.5 ₹ 11,618.2 ₹ 15,187.2

Check TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE

Cash Flow Statements

Operating Activities
Profit from operations ₹ 397.0 ₹ 645.0 ₹ 820.0 ₹ 873.0 ₹ 1,123.0 ₹ 1,513.0 ₹ 1,200.0 ₹ 1,624.0 ₹ 2,749.0 ₹ 3,732.0
Receivables (₹ 38.0) - ₹ 7.0 (₹ 34.0) (₹ 13.0) (₹ 32.0) (₹ 76.0) ₹ 15.0 (₹ 123.0) (₹ 73.0)
Inventory (₹ 43.0) (₹ 135.0) (₹ 39.0) ₹ 45.0 (₹ 151.0) (₹ 185.0) (₹ 47.0) (₹ 519.0) (₹ 557.0) (₹ 160.0)
Payables ₹ 86.0 ₹ 149.0 - - - - - - - -
Loans Advances ₹ 86.0 ₹ 149.0 - - - - - - - -
Other WC items - - ₹ 95.0 (₹ 207.0) ₹ 114.0 ₹ 132.0 ₹ 12.0 ₹ 236.0 ₹ 95.0 (₹ 440.0)
Working capital changes ₹ 44.0 (₹ 42.0) ₹ 64.0 (₹ 197.0) (₹ 50.0) (₹ 85.0) (₹ 111.0) (₹ 269.0) (₹ 585.0) (₹ 673.0)
Direct taxes (₹ 11.0) (₹ 48.0) (₹ 58.0) (₹ 57.0) (₹ 73.0) (₹ 120.0) (₹ 78.0) (₹ 124.0) (₹ 373.0) (₹ 668.0)
Cash from Operating Activities ₹ 521.0 ₹ 718.0 ₹ 889.0 ₹ 423.0 ₹ 950.0 ₹ 1,223.0 ₹ 900.0 ₹ 963.0 ₹ 1,206.0 ₹ 1,718.0

Investing Activities
Fixed assets purchased (₹ 220.0) (₹ 269.0) (₹ 792.0) (₹ 533.0) (₹ 859.0) (₹ 754.0) (₹ 560.0) (₹ 835.0) (₹ 1,801.0) (₹ 3,264.0)
Fixed assets sold - ₹ 4.0 ₹ 12.0 ₹ 17.0 ₹ 50.0 ₹ 21.0 ₹ 24.0 ₹ 19.0 ₹ 51.0 ₹ 70.0
Investments purchased (₹ 302.0) (₹ 550.0) (₹ 35.0) (₹ 35.0) - (₹ 73.0) - - - -
Investments sold ₹ 8.0 ₹ 512.0 ₹ 35.0 ₹ 35.0 - ₹ 73.0 - - - -
Interest received ₹ 12.0 ₹ 6.0 ₹ 8.0 ₹ 5.0 ₹ 6.0 ₹ 5.0 ₹ 9.0 ₹ 13.0 ₹ 23.0 ₹ 22.0
Dividends received ₹ 2.0 - - - - - - - - -
Invest in subsidiaries - - - - - - - - - -
Investment in group cos - - - - - - - - - (₹ 22.0)
Redemp n Canc of Shares - - - - - - - - - -
Acquisition of companies - - (₹ 276.0) (₹ 212.0) - (₹ 8.0) - - - (₹ 10.0)
Inter corporate deposits - - - - - - - - -
Other investing items - (₹ 4.0) - (₹ 23.0) (₹ 134.0) (₹ 1,583.0) ₹ 55.0 (₹ 205.0) (₹ 42.0) (₹ 85.0)
Cash from Investing Activities (₹ 500.0) (₹ 301.0) (₹ 1,048.0) (₹ 746.0) (₹ 937.0) (₹ 2,319.0) (₹ 472.0) (₹ 1,008.0) (₹ 1,769.0) (₹ 3,289.0)

Financing Activities
Proceeds from shares ₹ 240.0 - ₹ 701.0 ₹ 4.0 ₹ 1.0 ₹ 900.0 - - - ₹ 4.0
Redemption of debentures - - (₹ 500.0) - (₹ 300.0) - - - - -
Proceeds from borrowings ₹ 171.0 ₹ 332.0 - - ₹ 1,400.0 ₹ 1,958.0 ₹ 1,020.0 ₹ 855.0 ₹ 1,478.0 ₹ 2,783.0
Repayment of borrowings (₹ 87.0) (₹ 997.0) ₹ 71.0 (₹ 57.0) (₹ 644.0) (₹ 1,310.0) (₹ 1,233.0) (₹ 726.0) (₹ 1,138.0) (₹ 1,277.0)
Proceeds from deposits - - (₹ 500.0) - (₹ 300.0) - - - - -
Interest paid fin (₹ 186.0) (₹ 141.0) (₹ 219.0) (₹ 156.0) (₹ 189.0) (₹ 303.0) (₹ 277.0) (₹ 179.0) (₹ 172.0) (₹ 269.0)
Dividends paid - - - (₹ 46.0) (₹ 46.0) (₹ 69.0) (₹ 72.0) (₹ 108.0) (₹ 162.0) (₹ 227.0)
Financial liabilities - - - - - - (₹ 11.0) (₹ 19.0) (₹ 23.0) (₹ 30.0)
Other financing items (₹ 80.0) ₹ 250.0 ₹ 17.0 ₹ 113.0 (₹ 308.0) (₹ 69.0) - - - -
Cash from Financing Activities ₹ 58.0 (₹ 556.0) (₹ 430.0) (₹ 142.0) (₹ 386.0) ₹ 1,107.0 (₹ 573.0) (₹ 177.0) (₹ 17.0) ₹ 984.0

Net Cash Flow ₹ 79.0 (₹ 139.0) (₹ 589.0) (₹ 465.0) (₹ 373.0) ₹ 11.0 (₹ 145.0) (₹ 222.0) (₹ 580.0) (₹ 587.0)
 Ratio Analysis - Varun Beverages
Years Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Sparklines Mean Median

Sales Growth - 35.64% 13.76% 3.69% 27.52% 39.65% -9.53% 36.79% 49.30% 21.78% 24.29% 27.52%
EBITDA Growth - 22.43% 10.76% -0.12% -3.11% 1.09% -8.16% 1.92% 13.20% 6.60% 4.96% 1.92%
EBIT Growth - 83.83% 49.91% 0.90% 32.35% 49.63% -29.52% 69.42% 93.16% 35.18% 42.76% 49.63%
Net Profit Growth - 315.22% -72.05% 841.67% 46.85% 44.66% -8.94% 79.50% 125.58% 34.34% 156.32% 46.85%
Dividend Growth - 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.01% 50.01% 0.00% 50.01% 110.01% 28.57% 26.51% 0.00%

Gross Margin 27.99% 32.14% 36.02% 35.36% 37.05% 36.10% 35.11% 35.30% 35.87% 38.04% 34.90% 35.62%
EBITDA Margin 15.46% 18.93% 20.97% 20.94% 20.29% 20.51% 18.84% 19.20% 21.73% 23.17% 20.00% 20.40%
EBIT Margin 7.07% 9.58% 12.62% 12.28% 12.75% 13.66% 10.64% 13.18% 17.05% 18.92% 12.77% 12.68%
EBT Margin -0.42% 4.56% 1.36% 6.92% 8.38% 9.11% 6.09% 10.83% 15.50% 17.11% 7.94% 7.65%
Net Profit Margin -1.41% 2.24% 0.55% 5.00% 5.76% 5.97% 6.00% 7.88% 11.90% 13.13% 5.70% 5.86%

SalesExpenses % Sales 12.53% 13.21% 15.06% 14.42% 16.76% 15.59% 16.28% 16.10% 14.14% 14.87% 14.90% 14.97%
Depreciation % Sales 8.39% 9.35% 8.34% 8.66% 7.54% 6.85% 8.20% 6.02% 4.69% 4.24% 7.23% 7.87%
OperatingIncome % Sales 7.07% 9.58% 12.62% 12.28% 12.75% 13.66% 10.64% 13.18% 17.05% 18.92% 12.77% 12.68%

Return on Capital Employed 6.91% 14.12% 12.47% 11.12% 13.54% 14.43% 10.18% 15.57% 24.99% 24.55% 14.79% 13.83%
Retained Earnings% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 77.20% 84.47% 83.03% 81.37% 84.43% 85.50% 86.12% 78.21% 84.45%
Return on Equity% -24.70% 33.91% 1.26% 11.31% 14.71% 12.78% 10.99% 17.04% 30.73% 30.37% 13.84% 13.74%
Self Sustained Growth Rate 0.00% 33.91% 1.26% 8.73% 12.43% 10.61% 8.94% 14.39% 26.28% 26.16% 14.27% 11.52%
Interest Coverage Ratio 0.94x 1.91x 1.12x 2.29x 2.92x 3.00x 2.34x 5.62x 11.00x 10.41x 4x 3x

Debtor Turnover Ratio 25.72x 34.67x 29.40x 26.65x 39.88x 41.32x 26.68x 39.88x 44.01x 44.64x 35.28x 37.27x
Creditor Turnover Ratio 3.41x 1.59x 4.22x 4.70x 4.28x 4.37x 3.78x 4.18x 5.00x 5.69x 4.12x 4.25x
Inventory Turnover 8.65x 7.99x 7.88x 9.12x 8.83x 8.09x 6.94x 6.09x 6.61x 7.46x 7.77x 7.94x
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.06x 0.97x 1.04x 1.01x 1.16x 1.10x 1.01x 1.40x 1.90x 1.91x 1.26x 1.08x
Capital Turnover Ratio 17.49x 15.13x 2.28x 2.26x 2.55x 2.14x 1.83x 2.16x 2.58x 2.31x 5.07x 2.30x

(in days)
Debtor Days 14 11 12 14 9 9 14 9 8 8 1081.29% 984.13%
Payable Days 107 229 87 78 85 83 97 87 73 64 9899.54% 8586.62%
Inventory Days 42 46 46 40 41 45 53 60 55 49 4773.04% 4599.03%
Cash Conversion Cycle -51 -173 -28 -24 -35 -29 -30 -18 -9 -7 -4045.21% -2864.50%

CFO/Sales 20.82% 21.15% 23.02% 10.57% 18.61% 17.15% 13.95% 10.91% 9.15% 10.71% 15.61% 15.55%
CFO/Total Assets 15.83% 16.20% 18.43% 8.02% 15.84% 14.60% 10.65% 10.05% 10.38% 11.31% 13.13% 12.96%
CFO/Total Debt 21.57% 34.56% 40.13% 15.94% 33.83% 35.79% 27.98% 28.43% 31.05% 31.63% 30.09% 31.34%
 Sales Forecasting - Varun Beverages EBITDA Forecasting - Varun Beverages EBITDA Forecasting -
Year Weight Year Sales Sales Growth Year Weight Year Sales Sales Growth Year Weight Year Sales Sales Growth
1 2014A 2502.4 - 1 2014A 402.1 - 1 2014A -20.2 -
2 2015A 3394.1 35.64% 2 2015A 679.5 68.99% 2 2015A 113.0 -660.71%
3 2016A 3861.2 13.76% 3 2016A 830.6 22.25% 3 2016A 42.4 -62.51%
4 2017A 4003.5 3.69% 4 2017A 848.3 2.12% 4 2017A 210.2 395.87%
5 2018A 5105.3 27.52% 5 2018A 1034.6 21.97% 5 2018A 292.8 39.35%
6 2019A 7129.6 39.65% 6 2019A 1506.0 45.56% 6 2019A 469.0 60.15%
7 2020A 6450.1 -9.53% 7 2020A 1156.7 -23.20% 7 2020A 329.0 -29.85%
8 2021A 8823.2 36.79% 8 2021A 1692.8 46.35% 8 2021A 694.1 110.96%
9 2022A 13173.1 49.30% 9 2022A 2792.2 64.95% 9 2022A 1497.4 115.75%
10 2023A 16042.6 21.78% 10 2023A 3666.0 31.29% 10 2023A 2055.9 37.30%
11 2024E 14531.5 -9.42% 11 2024E 3123.3 -14.80% 11 2024E 1640.6 -20.20%
12 2025E 15892.0 9.36% 12 2025E 3425.5 9.68% 12 2025E 1835.5 11.88%
13 2026E 17252.6 8.56% 13 2026E 3727.8 8.82% 13 2026E 2030.5 10.62%
14 2027E 18613.1 7.89% 14 2027E 4030.1 8.11% 14 2027E 2225.4 9.60%
15 2028E 19973.6 7.31% 15 2028E 4332.3 7.50% 15 2028E 2420.4 8.76%
16 2029E 21334.2 6.81% 16 2029E 4634.6 6.98% 16 2029E 2615.3 8.05%

EBITDA Net Profit

25000.0 3000.0
5000.0
4500.0 2500.0
20000.0
4000.0
3500.0 2000.0
15000.0
3000.0
1500.0
10000.0 2500.0
2000.0 1000.0
5000.0 1500.0
1000.0 500.0
0.0 500.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
-5000.0 -500.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 -500.0
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

All figures are in INR unless stated otherwise

Peer Comps
Debt/ Debt/ Debt/ Levered Unlevered
1 2 3
Name of the comp Country Total Debt Total Equity Tax Rate Equity Capital Beta Beta

Varun Beverages India 5431.3 181914.8 30.00% 2.99% 2.90% 0.54 0.53
Hatsun Agro India 1973.5 24513.5 30.00% 8.05% 7.45% 0.69 0.65
Bikaji Foods India 180.0 12122.3 30.00% 1.48% 1.46% 0.48 0.48
Zydus Wellness India 352.0 9388.0 30.00% 3.75% 3.61% 0.39 0.38
Avanti Feeds India 10.1 6813.0 30.00% 0.15% 0.15% 0.79 0.79

Average 30.00% 3.28% 3.11% 0.58 0.56

Median 30.00% 2.99% 2.90% 0.54 0.53

Cost of Debt
Cost of Equity
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 1.36%
Tax Rate 30.00% Risk Free Rate 7.39%
Post-Tax Cost of Debt 0.95% Equity Risk Premium 8.00%
Levered Beta 4 0.54
Cost of Equity 11.70%

Capital Structure
Levered Beta
Current Target
Comps Median Unlevered Beta 0.53
Total Debt 5431.3 2.90% 3.11% Target Debt/ Equity 3.21%
Market Capitalisation 181914.8 97.10% 96.89% Tax Rate 30.00%
Total Capital 187346.1 100.00% 100.00% Levered Beta 0.54

Debt/ Equity 2.99% 3.21%

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Notes
1. Tax Rate considered as Marginal Tax Rate for the country Cost of Equity 11.70%
2. Levered Beta is based on 5 year monthly data Equity Weight 96.89%
3. Unlevered Beta = Levered Beta/(1+(1-Tax Rate) x Debt/Equity)
4. Levered Beta = Unlevered Beta*(1+(1-Tax Rate) x Debt/Equity) Cost of Debt 0.95%
Debt Weight 3.11%

WACC 11.36%
Beta

Varun Beverages Weekly Returns Nifty Weekly Returns Beta Drifting Beta Calculation
Date Closing Price Returns Closing Price Returns Levered Raw Beta 0.5 Beta ( Slope Function 0.5
21/3/22 317.7 - 17153.0 - Raw Beta Weigth 75.00% Beta (Cov/Var) 0.5
28/3/22 311.5 -1.953% 17670.4 3.02%
4/4/22 319.3 2.487% 17784.3 0.64% Market Beta 1.00 Beta (Regression) 0.5
11/4/22 335.4 5.071% 17475.7 -1.74% Market Beta Weigth 25.00%
18/4/22 345.0 2.853% 17171.9 -1.74%
25/4/22 359.5 4.198% 17102.6 -0.40% Adjusted Beta 0.65
2/5/22 356.9 -0.734% 16411.3 -4.04%
9/5/22 362.0 1.436% 15782.2 -3.83%
16/5/22 366.1 1.127% 16266.2 3.07%
23/5/22 361.5 -1.246% 16352.5 0.53%
30/5/22
6/6/22
13/6/22
365.1
375.5
373.8
0.996%
2.844%
-0.457%
16584.3
16201.8
15293.5
1.42%
-2.31%
-5.61%
Nifty Returns
20/6/22 383.5 2.590% 15699.3 2.65% 25000.0
27/6/22 395.2 3.050% 15752.0 0.34%
4/7/22 422.3 6.870% 16220.6 2.97%
11/7/22 411.4 -2.587% 16049.2 -1.06% 20000.0
18/7/22 434.1 5.529% 16719.4 4.18%
25/7/22 439.3 1.192% 17158.3 2.62%
1/8/22 510.2 16.149% 17397.5 1.39% 15000.0
8/8/22 510.4 0.024% 17698.2 1.73%
15/8/22 493.0 -3.401% 17758.4 0.34%
22/8/22 510.6 3.567% 17558.9 -1.12%
10000.0
29/8/22 514.7 0.801% 17539.4 -0.11%
5/9/22 538.9 4.711% 17833.3 1.68%
12/9/22 550.0 2.051% 17530.8 -1.70%
19/9/22 578.2 5.134% 17327.3 -1.16% 5000.0

Varun Beverages Returns

26/9/22 521.0 -9.901% 17094.3 -1.34%
3/10/22 566.4 8.720% 17314.7 1.29%
10/10/22 512.1 -9.579% 17185.7 -0.74% 0.0 1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
101
103
17/10/22 505.5 -1.305% 17576.3 2.27%
24/10/22 518.9 2.660% 17786.8 1.20%
31/10/22 568.2 9.504% 18117.2 1.86%
7/11/22 552.0 -2.854% 18349.7 1.28% 20.000%
14/11/22 570.7 3.389% 18307.7 -0.23%
21/11/22 574.7 0.704% 18512.8 1.12% 15.000%
28/11/22 657.9 14.467% 18696.1 0.99%
5/12/22 703.6 6.951% 18496.6 -1.07%
12/12/22 696.8 -0.964% 18269.0 -1.23% 10.000%
19/12/22 642.4 -7.808% 17806.8 -2.53%
26/12/22 659.8 2.714% 18105.3 1.68% 5.000%
2/1/23 649.0 -1.637% 17859.4 -1.36%
9/1/23 566.6 -12.695% 17956.6 0.54%
16/1/23 615.0 8.532% 18027.7 0.40% 0.000%
23/1/23 619.9 0.803% 17604.3 -2.35%
30/1/23 576.2 -7.054% 17854.1 1.42% -5.000%
6/2/23 634.5 10.122% 17856.5 0.01%
13/2/23 640.2 0.896% 17944.2 0.49%
-10.000%
20/2/23 644.4 0.651% 17465.8 -2.67%
27/2/23 677.8 5.184% 17594.3 0.74%
6/3/23 670.4 -1.082% 17412.9 -1.03% -15.000%
13/3/23 656.7 -2.054% 17100.1 -1.80%
20/3/23 674.5 2.720% 16945.1 -0.91%
27/3/23 692.0 2.589% 17359.8 2.45%
3/4/23 695.2 0.469% 17599.2 1.38%
10/4/23 713.2 2.587% 17828.0 1.30%
17/4/23 697.6 -2.195% 17624.1 -1.14%
24/4/23 721.5 3.435% 18065.0 2.50%
1/5/23 725.2 0.512% 18069.0 0.02%
8/5/23 776.8 7.115% 18314.8 1.36%
15/5/23 792.6 2.031% 18203.4 -0.61%
22/5/23 849.7 7.206% 18499.3 1.63% Regression Method
29/5/23 846.3 -0.400% 18534.1 0.19%
5/6/23 794.5 -6.120% 18563.4 0.16% Regression Statistics
12/6/23 820.0 3.211% 18826.0 1.41% Multiple R 0.200960722
19/6/23 765.0 -6.715% 18665.5 -0.85% R Square 0.040385212
26/6/23 801.4 4.758% 19189.1 2.80% Adjusted R Square 0.030977224
3/7/23 819.9 2.318% 19331.8 0.74% Standard Error 0.045187749
10/7/23 831.6 1.425% 19564.5 1.20% Observations 104
17/7/23 799.0 -3.920% 19745.0 0.92%
24/7/23 803.1 0.506% 19646.1 -0.50% ANOVA
31/7/23 824.1 2.617% 19517.0 -0.66% df SS MS F Significance F
7/8/23 848.2 2.920% 19428.3 -0.45% Regression 1 0.008765305 0.008765305 4.29265125 0.04080029
14/8/23 897.9 5.869% 19310.2 -0.61% Residual 102 0.208277131 0.002041933
21/8/23 873.8 -2.681% 19265.8 -0.23% Total 103 0.217042435
28/8/23 910.5 4.188% 19435.3 0.88%
4/9/23 909.9 -0.060% 19819.9 1.98% Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
11/9/23 915.7 0.632% 20192.3 1.88% Intercept 0.014264258 0.004480823 3.183401464 0.00193016 0.00537657 0.02315195 0.00537657 0.02315195
18/9/23 918.3 0.284% 19674.3 -2.57% - 0.537813578 0.259578644 2.071871437 0.04080029 0.02294057 1.05268659 0.02294057 1.05268659
25/9/23 945.7 2.989% 19638.3 -0.18%
2/10/23 927.0 -1.972% 19653.5 0.08%
9/10/23 929.5 0.264% 19751.1 0.50%
16/10/23 926.2 -0.355% 19542.7 -1.06%
23/10/23 921.5 -0.513% 19047.3 -2.53%
30/10/23 951.8 3.299% 19230.6 0.96%
6/11/23 1009.0 6.009% 19425.3 1.01%
13/11/23 1043.4 3.409% 19731.8 1.58%
20/11/23 1068.2 2.367% 19794.7 0.32%
27/11/23 1089.1 1.957% 20267.9 2.39%
4/12/23 1066.9 -2.029% 20969.4 3.46%
11/12/23 1099.0 3.004% 21456.7 2.32%
18/12/23 1238.6 12.702% 21349.4 -0.50%
25/12/23 1236.9 -0.137% 21731.4 1.79%
1/1/24 1279.2 3.416% 21710.8 -0.09%
8/1/24 1265.1 -1.102% 21894.6 0.85%
15/1/24 1267.3 0.182% 21622.4 -1.24%
22/1/24 1257.4 -0.785% 21352.6 -1.25%
29/1/24 1285.8 2.255% 21853.8 2.35%
5/2/24 1370.0 6.553% 21782.5 -0.33%
12/2/24 1423.1 3.872% 22040.7 1.19%
19/2/24 1514.5 6.426% 22212.7 0.78%
26/2/24 1417.8 -6.382% 22338.8 0.57%
4/3/24 1423.3 0.388% 22493.6 0.69%
11/3/24 1434.2 0.762% 22023.3 -2.09%
18/3/24 1436.4 0.157% 22055.7 0.15%
Nifty Yearly Returns
Year Annual
2000 -14.65%
2001 -16.18% Average Return 15.61%
2002 3.25% Dividen Yield 1.39% 1
2003 71.90% Total Market Return 15.61%
2004 10.68%
2005 36.34%
2006 39.83%
2007 54.77%
2008 -51.79%
2009 75.76%
2010 17.95%
2011 -24.62%
2012 27.70%
2013 6.76%
2014 31.39%
2015 -4.06%
2016 3.01%
2017 28.65%
2018 3.15%
2019 12.02%
2020 14.90%
2021 24.12%
2022 4.32%
2023 19.42%
Calculation of ROIC Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23

Current Assest
Inventories 882.0 929.0 1,448.0 1,994.0 2,151.0
Trade receivables 173.0 242.0 221.0 299.0 359.0
Short term loans 9.0 6.0 8.0 20.0 21.0
Other asset items 599.0 605.0 758.0 1,481.0 1,844.0
Total Current Assest 1,663.0 1,782.0 2,435.0 3,794.0 4,375.0

Current Liablity
Trade Payables 478.0 511.0 712.0 824.0 758.0
Advance from Customers 113.0 173.0 79.0 203.0 180.0
Other liability items 1,009.0 958.0 1,205.0 1,491.0 1,732.0
Total Current Liablities 1,600.0 1,642.0 1,996.0 2,518.0 2,670.0

Net Working Capital 63.0 140.0 439.0 1,276.0 1,705.0

Non Current Assests

Land 1,209.0 1,250.0 1,296.0 1,679.0 1,832.0
Building 1,308.0 1,392.0 1,474.0 1,587.0 1,958.0
Plant Machinery 3,565.0 3,831.0 3,967.0 4,401.0 5,499.0
Equipments 1,194.0 1,212.0 1,242.0 1,238.0 1,293.0
Computers 23.0 25.0 28.0 33.0 41.0
Furniture n fittings 25.0 26.0 29.0 29.0 41.0
Vehicles 742.0 622.0 690.0 795.0 1,086.0
Intangible Assets 644.0 644.0 644.0 644.0 644.0
Other fixed assets 35.0 32.0 38.0 35.0 51.0

Gross Block 8,745.0 9,034.0 9,408.0 10,441.0 12,445.0

Accumulated Depriciation 2,265.0 2,624.0 3,099.0 3,509.0 4,036.0
Net Non Current Assest 6,480.0 6,410.0 6,309.0 6,932.0 8,409.0

Invested Capital 6,543.0 6,550.0 6,748.0 8,208.0 10,114.0

EBIT 973.7 686.3 1,162.7 2,245.8 3,035.8

ROIC 14.88% 10.48% 17.23% 27.36% 30.02%

Calculation of Reinvested Capital Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23

Net Capex 733.0 536.0 816.0 1,750.0 3,194.0

Change in Working Capital 77.0 299.0 837.0 429.0

EBIT 973.7 686.3 1,162.7 2,245.8 3,035.8

Marginal Tax Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
EBIT(1-T) 730.3 514.7 872.0 1,684.4 2,276.9

Reinvestment 613 1115 2587 3623

Reinvestment Rate 119.10% 127.86% 153.59% 159.12%

4 Year Average 139.92%

4 Year Median 140.73%

Calculation of Growth Rate Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23

Reinvestment Rate 119.10% 127.86% 153.59% 159.12%

ROIC 10.48% 17.23% 27.36% 30.02%

Intrinsic Growth 12.48% 22.03% 42.02% 47.76%

Calculation of PV of FCFF Dec-23A Dec-24E Dec-25E Dec-26E Dec-27E Dec-28E

EBIT ₹3,036 ₹4,008 ₹5,292 ₹6,987 ₹9,224 ₹12,179

Tax Rate 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%

EBIT(1-T) ₹2,277 ₹3,006 ₹3,969 ₹5,240 ₹6,918 ₹9,134

Less: Investment Rate 140.73% 122.45% 104.18% 85.90% 67.63% 67.63%

Free Cash Flow To Firm(FCFF) (₹927) (₹675) (₹166) ₹739 ₹2,239 ₹2,957
Mid Year Conversion 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5
Discounting Factor 0.948 0.851 0.764 0.686 0.616
PV of FCFF -639.59 -141.11 564.36 1536.48 1821.56

Expected Growth 32.03%

Terminal Growth 5.38%
WACC 11.36%

Calculation of Terminal Value

FCFF(n+1) 3903.65
WACC 11.36%
Terminal Growth Rate 5.38%

Terminal Value 34349.21

Calculation of Equity Value

PV of FCFF 3141.69
PV of Terminal Value 21161.92
Value of Operating Assest 24303.61

Add: Cash 460.00

Less: Debt 5194
Value of Equity 19569.61
No of Shares 129.94

Equity Value Per Share 150.61

Share Price 1427.9

Discount/Premium 9.48x
(Amount in crores)
Comparable Company Valuation

Market Data Market Data Valuation

Shares Equity Entreprise

Company Ticker Sḣare Price Outstanding Value Net debt value Revenue EBITDA Net Income EV/Revenue EV/ EBITDA P/E

Varun Beverages 1399 130 181754 3041 184794 16043 0 2102 11.52x - 86.47x
Hatsun Agro 1099 22 24484 1232 25716 7247 1449 240 3.55x 17.74x 101.96x
Bikaji Foods 485 25 12144 7 12152 1944 778 192 6.25x 15.62x 63.30x
Zydus Wellness 1485 6 9445 260 9705 2255 -271 262 4.30x -35.87x 36.06x
Avanti Feeds 501 14 6825 -441 6384 5087 1424 383 1.25x 4.48x 17.84x
KRBL 290 23 6627 447 7074 5363 -697 600 1.32x -10.15x 11.05x

High 11.52x 17.74x 101.96x

75th Percentile 7.57x 16.15x 90.35x
Average 4.70x -1.36x 52.78x
Median 3.93x 2.24x 49.68x
25th Percentile 1.88x -7.61x 22.39x
Low 1.25x -35.87x 11.05x

Varun Beverages Comparable Valuation EV/Revenue EV/ EBITDA P/E

Implied Entreprise Value 62989 0 107460

Net Debt 3041 3041 3041
Implied Market Value 59949 -3041 104419
Shares Outstanding 130 130 130

Implied Value Per Share 461.4 -23.4 803.6

Source: The Valuation School , Screener.in Undervalued Undervalued Undervalued

 Common Size Income Statement - Varun Beverages

Particulars Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23

Sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Raw Material Cost 54.98% 51.43% 45.83% 47.04% 45.18% 47.17% 43.12% 46.86% 50.14% 46.68% 50.14% 46.68%
Change in Inventory -0.01% 0.85% 0.83% 1.83% 1.22% 2.02% 0.27% 1.13% 2.62% 0.53% 2.62% 0.53%
Power and Fuel 4.54% 3.86% 4.05% 4.00% 3.82% 3.91% 4.14% 3.74% 3.64% 3.43% 3.64% 3.43%
Other Mfr. Exp 3.81% 3.88% 4.01% 3.86% 3.75% 3.44% 4.10% 3.72% 3.58% 3.35% 3.58% 3.35%
Employee Cost 8.66% 9.54% 10.92% 11.57% 11.42% 11.38% 13.80% 11.51% 9.38% 9.02% 9.38% 9.02%
Selling and admin 11.92% 12.54% 14.06% 13.14% 33.16% 33.24% 32.43% 15.40% 13.49% 14.05% 13.49% 14.05%
Other Expenses 0.61% 0.67% 1.00% 1.29% -16.40% -17.65% -16.15% 0.70% 0.65% 0.83% 0.65% 0.83%
Other Income 0.57% 1.05% 0.69% 0.35% 0.11% 0.66% -0.47% 0.58% -0.14% -0.03% -0.14% -0.03%
Depreciation 8.39% 9.35% 8.34% 8.66% 7.54% 6.85% 8.20% 6.02% 4.69% 4.24% 4.69% 4.24%
Interest 7.49% 5.01% 11.26% 5.36% 4.36% 4.55% 4.55% 2.35% 1.55% 1.82% 1.55% 1.82%
Profit before tax 0.15% 5.62% 2.05% 7.27% 8.50% 9.77% 5.62% 11.41% 15.36% 17.08% 15.36% 17.08%
Tax 0.99% 2.32% 0.81% 1.92% 2.62% 3.14% 0.08% 2.95% 3.59% 3.97% 3.59% 3.97%
Net profit -0.81% 3.33% 1.10% 5.25% 5.74% 6.58% 5.10% 7.87% 11.37% 12.82% 11.37% 12.82%
Dividend Amount 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.14% 0.89% 1.01% 1.12% 1.23% 1.73% 1.82% 1.73% 1.82%
EBITDA 16.07% 20.02% 21.51% 21.19% 20.27% 21.12% 17.93% 19.19% 21.20% 22.85% 21.20% 22.85%

Common Size Balance Sheet - Varun Beverages

Particulars Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23

Total Liablities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Equity Share Capital 4.06% 3.02% 3.78% 3.46% 3.05% 3.45% 3.42% 4.52% 5.59% 4.28% 5.59% 4.28%
Reserves 0.28% 2.04% 31.33% 30.08% 30.27% 36.29% 38.30% 38.07% 38.33% 41.40% 38.33% 41.40%
Borrowings 73.38% 46.88% 45.92% 50.30% 46.81% 40.80% 38.07% 35.35% 33.43% 35.76% 33.43% 35.76%
Other Liabilities 22.28% 48.06% 18.97% 16.16% 19.87% 19.46% 20.21% 22.06% 22.65% 18.56% 22.65% 18.56%

Total Assest 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Net Block 71.54% 78.88% 77.01% 75.45% 73.14% 77.36% 75.87% 65.88% 59.67% 55.37% 59.67% 55.37%
Capital Work in Progress 0.75% 0.86% 1.98% 2.76% 5.87% 0.76% 0.79% 5.18% 5.22% 12.66% 5.22% 12.66%
Investments 9.23% 0.07% 0.14% 0.16% 0.19% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 0.00% 0.14%
Other Assets 5.69% 7.08% 6.62% 8.68% 7.46% 7.25% 7.24% 8.00% 12.92% 12.28% 12.92% 12.28%

Receivables 2.96% 2.21% 2.72% 2.85% 2.13% 2.06% 2.86% 2.31% 2.58% 2.37% 2.58% 2.37%
Inventory 8.79% 9.58% 10.16% 8.32% 9.64% 10.52% 11.00% 15.12% 17.16% 14.16% 17.16% 14.16%
Cash & Bank 1.05% 1.31% 1.36% 1.79% 1.56% 2.04% 2.25% 3.51% 2.46% 3.03% 2.46% 3.03%
Date Adj Close Return Sorted Return Calculation of Value at Risk - Varun Beverages (Historical )
13/03/20 170.38 0.15801666 0.100723883
30/04/20 147.13 0.02455994 0.08569782 Mean -0.14%
19/03/20 143.60 0.0583335 0.084197554 Standard Deviation 2.21%
14/06/19 135.69 -0.724777 0.083047094 Min -10.77%
19/08/22 493.00 2.16418274 0.074368011 Max 10.07%
17/03/20 155.81 -0.7737914 0.073017511 CMP 1427.9
22/12/22 688.78 3.81822358 0.072188646
20/04/20 142.95 -0.1949635 0.071481676 Percentile Confidence VAR % Stock Price VAR (INR)
29/01/20 177.57 0.06140418 0.07089861
11/11/19 167.30 0.34265048 0.070665124 0.5% 99.5% -6.97% 1527.40 -99.50
27/03/20 124.60 -0.4167374 0.06950207 1% 99% -6.37% 1518.91 -91.01
18/12/20 213.63 -0.6305318 0.067588343 5% 95% -3.83% 1482.55 -54.65
23/09/22 578.22 3.19557043 0.066289423 10% 90% -2.71% 1466.56 -38.66
23/07/19 137.82 -0.5408356 0.064109217
19/10/21 300.15 -0.0311128 0.063480922
16/09/21 309.79 0.78847865 0.058496755
06/08/20 173.21 1.60426335 0.057911756
Chart Title
08/11/16 66.51 -0.6950574 0.057902635
16/04/21 218.11 -0.3321281 0.056941589
03/03/22 326.57 0.89332814 0.056796171
06/03/20 172.49 0.2505175 0.055749768
09/09/19 137.93 -0.7344002 0.05531282
18/08/22 519.32 2.95900977 0.053382577
26/03/20 131.17 -0.7957591 0.052728969
10/01/23 642.26 -0.5621977 0.0508143

(0.00229995,…
(0.01229995,…
(0.02229995,…
(0.03229995,…
(0.04229995,…
(0.05229995,…
(0.06229995,…
(0.07229995,…
(0.08229995,…
(0.09229995,…
27/02/24 1467.00 0.82833941 0.049468845
22/06/23 802.37 3.44264365 0.048883975
[-…
(-…
(-…
(-…
(-…
(-…
(-…
(-…
(-…
(-…
(-…
03/03/20 180.61 0.51741701 0.04860922
31/10/18 119.02 -0.4286607 0.048191256
15/02/21 208.32 -0.521448 0.048081098
13/07/22 435.31 -0.7166379 0.047795819
26/02/24 1536.25 1.83298292 0.047205181
26/09/22 542.27 0.88688982 0.046555252
17/12/21 287.39 1.0079093 0.046388045
22/04/20 143.13 -0.7583362 0.045673507
12/01/23 592.26 1.57453776 0.045212292
05/03/21 230.05 -0.0766917 0.044596851
23/06/21 249.15 0.25491341 0.044427613
27/01/21 198.54 -0.6653078 0.044416062
03/11/22 593.21 3.3677139 0.043989781
02/08/19 135.82 -0.8528121 0.043734165
23/10/23 922.75 0.27201234 0.043598719
05/04/23 725.43 2.77616804 0.043415811
27/11/20 192.11 -0.47792 0.042843318
24/05/22 367.96 -0.7150444 0.042781175
21/12/23 1291.30 9.02292465 0.042548098
23/03/20 128.83 -0.763006 0.042496321
10/10/22 543.62 -0.2438857 0.042380109
19/04/23 718.97 0.20635545 0.042192894
30/01/23 595.98 5.09914559 0.042137446
15/01/18 97.72 -0.6969522 0.042115875
12/11/21 322.44 -0.4307112 0.041919151
07/10/22 566.40 3.65739811 0.04189613
01/02/19 121.61 -0.6022985 0.041880245
23/02/22 305.79 -0.6282732 0.041824537
07/06/23 822.61 5.47671295 0.041596839
09/04/20 127.01 -0.5968897 0.040878889
18/11/21 315.08 -0.4085766 0.040541363
13/10/22 532.74 0.7317756 0.040233824
09/02/22 307.63 -0.077367 0.04021983
08/11/21 333.42 -0.4621571 0.040213221
27/01/23 619.93 1.13540846 0.04018246
05/01/22 290.31 0.42162723 0.039995073
20/04/21 204.21 -0.442085 0.039968476
18/05/22 366.02 -0.7447811 0.039626819
04/03/24 1434.15 9.82611139 0.039578104
20/05/20 132.47 -0.22982 0.039306909
18/08/20 172.00 0.69402412 0.039296641
18/05/18 101.53 -0.6640963 0.038687651
02/12/21 302.27 -0.2204753 0.037465059
16/06/22 387.76 -0.3205631 0.037414273
18/11/22 570.71 2.22732426 0.036798713
05/02/20 176.84 -0.1106115 0.036714917
Date Adj Close Return Sorted Return Replication Simulated Returns Calculation of Value at Risk - Varun Beverages (Historical )
13/03/20 170.38 0.15801666 0.100723883 1 0.025065694
30/04/20 147.13 0.02455994 0.08569782 2 -0.036649574 Historical Approach
19/03/20 143.60 0.0583335 0.084197554 3 0.021928544 Mean -0.14%
14/06/19 135.69 -0.724777 0.083047094 4 -0.025944354 Standard Deviation 2.21%
19/08/22 493.00 2.16418274 0.074368011 5 0.016323454 Min -10.77%
17/03/20 155.81 -0.7737914 0.073017511 6 -0.012654296 Max 10.07%
22/12/22 688.78 3.81822358 0.072188646 7 0.003146562 CMP 1427.9
20/04/20 142.95 -0.1949635 0.071481676 8 -0.04229897
29/01/20 177.57 0.06140418 0.07089861 9 0.056602243
11/11/19 167.30 0.34265048 0.070665124 10 -0.019597524 Monte Carlo Simulation
27/03/20 124.60 -0.4167374 0.06950207 11 0.025374621 Mean -0.18%
18/12/20 213.63 -0.6305318 0.067588343 12 -0.022183514 Standard Deviation 2.21%
23/09/22 578.22 3.19557043 0.066289423 13 0.02049631 Min -9.23%
23/07/19 137.82 -0.5408356 0.064109217 14 0.029971931 Max 8.46%
19/10/21 300.15 -0.0311128 0.063480922 15 0.013211413 CMP 1427.9
16/09/21 309.79 0.78847865 0.058496755 16 -0.008424012
06/08/20 173.21 1.60426335 0.057911756 17 -0.011611835
08/11/16 66.51 -0.6950574 0.057902635 18 -0.022488613 Percentile Confidence VAR % Stock Price VAR (INR)
16/04/21 218.11 -0.3321281 0.056941589 19 -0.021942867
03/03/22 326.57 0.89332814 0.056796171 20 -0.012016312 0.5% 99.5% -5.85% 1511.39 -83.49
06/03/20 172.49 0.2505175 0.055749768 21 -0.016295656 1% 99% -5.17% 1501.75 -73.85
09/09/19 137.93 -0.7344002 0.05531282 22 -0.041480853 5% 95% -3.79% 1482.04 -54.14
18/08/22 519.32 2.95900977 0.053382577 23 0.00553379 10% 90% -3.01% 1470.82 -42.92
26/03/20 131.17 -0.7957591 0.052728969 24 -0.003752551
10/01/23 642.26 -0.5621977 0.0508143 25 -0.016813506
27/02/24 1467.00 0.82833941 0.049468845 26 0.052531883
22/06/23 802.37 3.44264365 0.048883975 27 -0.00897734
Chart Title
03/03/20 180.61 0.51741701 0.04860922 28 0.014035052
31/10/18 119.02 -0.4286607 0.048191256 29 -0.016176958 12000

15/02/21 208.32 -0.521448 0.048081098 30 -0.024614344

10000
13/07/22 435.31 -0.7166379 0.047795819 31 0.013740188
26/02/24 1536.25 1.83298292 0.047205181 32 -0.017105531 8000
26/09/22 542.27 0.88688982 0.046555252 33 -0.018215431
17/12/21 287.39 1.0079093 0.046388045 34 0.06122114 6000
22/04/20 143.13 -0.7583362 0.045673507 35 -0.005745494
12/01/23 592.26 1.57453776 0.045212292 36 -0.007310487 4000
05/03/21 230.05 -0.0766917 0.044596851 37 0.006066368
2000
23/06/21 249.15 0.25491341 0.044427613 38 0.013405034
27/01/21 198.54 -0.6653078 0.044416062 39 0.017201255 0
03/11/22 593.21 3.3677139 0.043989781 40 -0.017928951 [-0.092262949, 4.907737051]
02/08/19 135.82 -0.8528121 0.043734165 41 0.015487697
23/10/23 922.75 0.27201234 0.043598719 42 -0.017841708
05/04/23 725.43 2.77616804 0.043415811 43 -0.013956453
27/11/20 192.11 -0.47792 0.042843318 44 0.009288426
24/05/22 367.96 -0.7150444 0.042781175 45 0.010483511
21/12/23 1291.30 9.02292465 0.042548098 46 0.014717109
23/03/20 128.83 -0.763006 0.042496321 47 -0.006233454
10/10/22 543.62 -0.2438857 0.042380109 48 0.007666089
19/04/23 718.97 0.20635545 0.042192894 49 0.00757884
30/01/23 595.98 5.09914559 0.042137446 50 0.00527869
15/01/18 97.72 -0.6969522 0.042115875 51 0.027176485
12/11/21 322.44 -0.4307112 0.041919151 52 -0.002904118
07/10/22 566.40 3.65739811 0.04189613 53 -5.52642E-06
01/02/19 121.61 -0.6022985 0.041880245 54 0.004884209
23/02/22 305.79 -0.6282732 0.041824537 55 0.023789284
07/06/23 822.61 5.47671295 0.041596839 56 -0.043022429
09/04/20 127.01 -0.5968897 0.040878889 57 -0.010677245
18/11/21 315.08 -0.4085766 0.040541363 58 0.01065743
13/10/22 532.74 0.7317756 0.040233824 59 0.013937095
09/02/22 307.63 -0.077367 0.04021983 60 -0.003639887
08/11/21 333.42 -0.4621571 0.040213221 61 0.020865994
27/01/23 619.93 1.13540846 0.04018246 62 -0.005831247
05/01/22 290.31 0.42162723 0.039995073 63 -0.011529327
20/04/21 204.21 -0.442085 0.039968476 64 0.031597625
18/05/22 366.02 -0.7447811 0.039626819 65 -0.030107768
04/03/24 1434.15 9.82611139 0.039578104 66 -0.001204393
20/05/20 132.47 -0.22982 0.039306909 67 0.01703353
18/08/20 172.00 0.69402412 0.039296641 68 -0.009172055
18/05/18 101.53 -0.6640963 0.038687651 69 -0.006777089
02/12/21 302.27 -0.2204753 0.037465059 70 -0.025285479
16/06/22 387.76 -0.3205631 0.037414273 71 0.019743945
18/11/22 570.71 2.22732426 0.036798713 72 0.00757088
05/02/20 176.84 -0.1106115 0.036714917 73 -0.037399896
01/02/21 198.83 -0.2079738 0.036547582 74 0.013482115
22/07/21 251.04 -0.5098201 0.036523835 75 -0.044231424
14/10/22 512.14 1.97768759 0.035874687 76 0.030457118
11/03/20 171.99 0.10535225 0.035728358 77 -0.013833216
31/07/20 155.60 1.70333623 0.03553687 78 0.026046609
21/12/16 57.56 -0.8476893 0.035412038 79 -0.002553186
02/06/22 377.90 2.70651824 0.035030993 80 -0.009012433
11/05/18 101.96 0.89373781 0.034994521 81 -0.009068601
23/12/16 53.84 -0.6074239 0.034775309 82 0.002359477
30/09/19 137.14 0.19470995 0.034734303 83 -0.028342764
26/09/18 114.79 -0.4839527 0.034521541 84 0.00344041
01/04/21 222.44 0.88427187 0.03439445 85 0.009972263
16/11/18 118.05 -0.2660318 0.033998035 86 0.003348657
19/06/20 160.84 -0.4183853 0.033389836 87 0.016310146
23/08/21 276.54 -0.2215372 0.033093793 88 0.044264349
26/04/22 355.24 -0.4736688 0.033045528 89 -0.019328507
05/12/22 674.93 2.1614279 0.032987181 90 -0.038817079
12/01/21 213.49 1.70206137 0.032739638 91 -0.014157572
28/08/17 79.01 0.42131144 0.032601332 92 0.003954335
22/12/16 55.59 -0.905839 0.032531426 93 -0.008039237
28/11/22 590.37 1.29530366 0.032413007 94 -0.001006654
22/06/21 257.21 1.21811575 0.032317975 95 -0.03680612
11/02/19 115.96 -0.6119483 0.032147096 96 0.024061719
24/01/22 298.82 -0.511092 0.032027038 97 0.003463379
11/01/23 611.20 3.31866722 0.031968762 98 -0.034874091
27/09/19 141.52 -0.3622483 0.031965913 99 -0.024481107
17/03/21 221.91 0.45420394 0.031933967 100 0.033765118
13/10/20 152.60 -0.4903699 0.031671486 101 0.033292374
15/12/21 299.43 1.68032384 0.031487487 102 0.020504621
07/06/18 111.72 -0.0657401 0.031354877 103 0.032421227
23/08/18 119.58 -0.6045142 0.03120875 104 0.01114452
25/11/21 302.35 1.93393884 0.031057401 105 -0.040696851
03/01/18 103.05 -0.0812422 0.030920473 106 -0.037804605
01/06/18 112.17 -0.6874912 0.03088027 107 0.026052151
10/05/22 358.92 5.19684973 0.030874811 108 -0.014563339
21/02/17 57.92 -0.9137282 0.030252373 109 0.00947523
15/03/23 671.37 8.65698114 0.030241632 110 -0.003862524
20/04/17 69.52 -0.1461876 0.030134324 111 0.0204323
21/08/17 81.42 0.32987205 0.030085614 112 0.030679211
06/12/16 61.23 -0.4280417 0.030074146 113 0.003940349
13/12/18 107.05 -0.7033803 0.02968636 114 -0.020431766
30/05/22 360.90 1.61169479 0.029578877 115 0.015940597
24/10/19 138.18 -0.5528323 0.029551391 116 0.012469899
04/03/22 309.02 -0.4562261 0.029512521 117 0.015183496
10/11/22 568.29 5.02751711 0.029510179 118 0.006642672
19/02/18 94.28 -0.1696783 0.029379073 119 -0.024988734
01/11/18 113.55 -0.378767 0.029366965 120 -0.026441513
28/01/20 182.78 0.33472391 0.029328071 121 -0.016806526
01/06/20 136.94 -0.3375509 0.029317053 122 0.01544681
13/01/21 206.72 0.86304245 0.029308442 123 -0.034747974
27/09/18 110.96 -0.830293 0.029166758 124 0.012099352
08/02/23 653.83 1.97696115 0.028892238 125 -0.008030836
11/01/21 219.63 0.35185555 0.028758766 126 0.036855052
11/11/20 162.47 1.09231111 0.028613272 127 0.015196857
20/06/17 77.65 -0.7530616 0.028568599 128 0.00347948
10/11/21 314.45 0.02095234 0.028374497 129 -0.02320742
24/09/21 307.99 0.0481566 0.028302456 130 0.016758558
29/12/21 293.84 0.53151954 0.028271176 131 -0.016216015
02/12/20 191.86 0.44858099 0.028237065 132 0.015440392
20/03/20 132.45 -0.1483574 0.028057365 133 0.013468356
23/06/20 155.52 -0.0170627 0.028033747 134 -0.019717236
29/09/20 158.22 -0.4001923 0.027781791 135 0.005059125
16/07/21 263.79 1.32923945 0.027699056 136 -0.005386773
19/10/18 113.25 -0.635515 0.027674684 137 0.004855811
11/02/22 310.71 3.19384008 0.027652758 138 0.002998736
28/07/17 74.09 0.43054779 0.027398673 139 0.017016801
10/03/17 51.79 -0.2574451 0.027275284 140 -0.020654941
23/05/17 69.75 0.31617036 0.026960723 141 0.004534568
08/03/17 52.99 -0.3155091 0.026784467 142 -0.015179508
Varun Beverages
(Varun Beverages | BSE Code : 540180
INR 1427.9
52 Week (high - INR 1561.95 & Low 645.75)

About The Company

Varun Beverages Ltd has been associated with PepsiCo since the 1990s and is a key player in beverage industry and one of the largest franchisee
of PepsiCo in the world. The company produces and distributes a wide range of carbonated soft drinks, non-carbonated drinks and packaged
water sold under trademarks owned by PepsiCo.
PepsiCo brands produced and sold by the company include Pepsi, Seven-up, Mirinda Orange, Mountain Dew, Tropicana Juices and many more

Financial Summary

Revenue (INR Crs.) Net Profit (INR Crs.) Total Assests (INR Crs.)
13,403

16,043 16,043
10,599
13,173 13,173 9,013
8,411
8,823 8,823
6,450 6,450

2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023

Net Profit Margin (INR Crs.) Financial Leverage (INR Crs.)

Assest Turnover Ratio (INR Crs.)
12.82% 1.24X 1.20X 16,043
11.37% 13,173
0.98X
7.87% 0.77X
8,823
5.10% 6,450

2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023

Recent Updates

• Consolidated sales volume increased by 13.9% and net realization per case increased by 7% in CY2023.
• Revenue growth of 21.8%, EBITDA increase of 29.5%, and PAT growth of 35.6% in CY2023.
• Approved final dividend of Rs. 1.25 per equity share for CY2023.
• Net debt stood at Rs. 47,345 million as of December 31, 2023, with healthy debt-to-equity and debt-to-EBITDA ratios.
• Net CAPEX of Rs. 21,000 million invested in new production facilities and land acquisition for future plant construction.
• Expectations of a 45% increase in peak month capacity in India over the base year of CY2022.
• Acquisition of BevCo in South Africa expected to yield significant synergy benefits and enhance market presence.
• Focus on sustaining growth momentum by strengthening market position and product categories aligned with consumer
preferences.
• Focus on go-to market strategies, adding new outlets, and enhancing chilling infrastructure for growth.
• Expansion of production capacity in dairy-based beverages, Tropicana, and Gatorade to drive future growth.

Dupont Analysis - Return On Equity And Assest

Return On Equity
Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Net Profit 292.8 469.0 329.0 694.1 1,497.4 2,055.9
Average Shareholder Equity 2,883.2 4,327.7 5,188.2 5,841.9 7,142.3 9,487.7
Return On Equity 10.16% 10.84% 6.34% 11.88% 20.97% 21.67%

ROE - Dupont Equation

Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Net Profit 292.8 469.0 329.0 694.1 1,497.4 2,055.9
Revenue 5,105.3 7,129.6 6,450.1 8,823.2 13,173.1 16,042.6
Net Profit Margin (A) 5.74% 6.58% 5.10% 7.87% 11.37% 12.82%

Revenue 5,105.3 7,129.6 6,450.1 8,823.2 13,173.1 16,042.6

Average Total Assest 5,636.8 7,186.8 8,411.5 9,013.4 10,598.9 13,402.7
Assest Turnover Ratio (B) 0.91X 0.99X 0.77X 0.98X 1.24X 1.20X

Average Total Assest 5,636.8 7,186.8 8,411.5 9,013.4 10,598.9 13,402.7

Average Shareholder Equity 2,883.2 4,327.7 5,188.2 5,841.9 7,142.3 9,487.7
Equity Multiplier (C) 1.96X 1.66X 1.62X 1.54X 1.48X 1.41X

Return On Equity (A*B*C) 10.16% 10.84% 6.34% 11.88% 20.97% 21.67%

Return On Assest
Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Net Profit 292.8 469.0 329.0 694.1 1,497.4 2,055.9
Average Total Assest 5,636.8 7,186.8 8,411.5 9,013.4 10,598.9 13,402.7
Net Profit Margin (A) 5.20% 6.53% 3.91% 7.70% 14.13% 15.34%

ROA - Dupont Equation

Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Revenue 5,105.3 7,129.6 6,450.1 8,823.2 13,173.1 16,042.6
Average Total Assest 5,636.8 7,186.8 8,411.5 9,013.4 10,598.9 13,402.7
Assest Turnover Ratio (B) 0.91X 0.99X 0.77X 0.98X 1.24X 1.20X

Return On Assest (A*B) 4.71% 6.47% 3.00% 7.54% 17.56% 18.36%

• Dupont Summary

• ROE of TVarun Beverages increased to 21.67% , nearly double of the FY21 year during covid.
• ROE has not followed a single pattern , one year it has shown a positive increase and the next year it had shown negative . No pattern is
recognised to analyse the ROI correctly .
• Though ROE during covid times was decreased significantly but it showed a positive growth in its net profit margin
• The reason for increase in ROE is increase in Net Profit Margin which has increased two fold from the year dec 21 to the present year dec 23
• ROA of the company was drastically affected during Dec 2020 and later during the covid times , while the assest increased from 0.98x to 1.20x
 Varun Beverages
(Varun Beverages | BSE Code : 540180
INR 1427.9
52 Week (high - INR 1561.95 & Low 645.75)

Altman's Z Score Analysis

According to Altman Z score Varun Beverages is financially very strong and there is no sign of distress and the major driver of the Altman Z score is the
increasing market capitalisation of Varun Beverages. Operating profit is increasing year on year basis which is a positive growth driver of the business
and thus leading to no distress zone for the company .

Financial Summary

Working Capital / Total Assest (INR EBIT / Total Assests (INR Crs.)
Retained Earnings / Total Asset (INR Crs.)
13.27%
12.46% 19.99%
19.33%
15,187.2
11,618.2 12.14%
6.88%
8,447.4 9,579.5 8.12%
3.13%

2020 2021 2022 2023

2020 2021 2022 2023
2020 2021 2022 2023

Market Cap / Long Term Liablities (INR Crs.) Sales / Total Assest (INR Crs.) Altman Z score (INR Crs.)
100266 113.38% 105.63%
76.0% 92.11%
60,162.1
76.36%

233618
14,019.2
2.9%
293443. 491462. 1,761.8 2,950.3
8% 9%

2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023

2020 2021 2022 2023

Altman's Z Score Analysis Calculation

Working Capital / Total Asset
Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Working Capital 55.8 202.7 264.7 659.3 1,447.3 2,015.3
Total Assest 5,998.0 8,375.6 8,447.4 9,579.5 11,618.2 15,187.2
Working Capital / Total Asset (A) 0.93% 2.42% 3.13% 6.88% 12.46% 13.27%

Retained Earnings / Total Asset

Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Retained Earnings 248.34 353.14 315.12 586.91 1,340.85 1,814.36
Total Asset 5,998.0 8,375.6 8,447.4 9,579.5 11,618.2 15,187.2
Retained Earnings / Total Asset (B) 4.14% 4.22% 3.73% 6.13% 11.54% 11.95%

EBIT / Total Asset

EBIT 650.7 973.7 686.3 1,162.7 2,245.8 3,035.8
Total Assest 5,998.0 8,375.6 8,447.4 9,579.5 11,618.2 15,187.2
EBIT / Total Asset (C) 10.85% 11.63% 8.12% 12.14% 19.33% 19.99%

Market Cap / Long Term Liablities

Market Cap 36,64,218 47,61,105 94,37,505 1,66,44,669 9,07,32,906 54,45,79,858
Long Term Liablity 2,807.9 3,417.2 3,216.1 3,386.8 3,883.8 5,431.3
Market Cap / Long Term Liablities (D) 130498.1% 139328.5% 293443.8% 491462.9% 2336182.9% 10026676.0%

Sales / Total Assest

Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Sales 5,105.3 7,129.6 6,450.1 8,823.2 13,173.1 16,042.6
Total Assest 5,998.0 8,375.6 8,447.4 9,579.5 11,618.2 15,187.2
Sales / Total Assest 85.12% 85.12% 76.36% 92.11% 113.38% 105.63%

Altman's Z Score
Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Final Score 784.3 837.3 1,761.8 2,950.3 14,019.2 60,162.1
Financial Stability Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong