29 December 2023 Company Update

ONGC
Limited earnings growth prospects REDUCE
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) stock rallied 40% and outperformed
CMP (as on 28 Dec 2023) INR 208
the Sensex by 21% in CY23YTD, as Brent crude price increased from USD 81/bbl
at the beginning of CY23 to a high USD 96/bbl seen in Octoer 2023. However, Target Price INR 216
going ahead we see limited upside to ONGC’s crude price realisation in the NIFTY 21,779
current environment of windfall tax (which has not allowed ONGC to earn
more than USD 75/bbl since the levy of the tax on 1 July 2022), slowing global KEY
OLD NEW
oil demand, strong non-OPEC+ oil production growth and increasing spare CHANGES

OPEC oil capacity. ONGC’s gas price realisation too is unlikely to change Rating ADD REDUCE

significantly, as APM gas price is frozen till March 2025 and 95% of ONGC’s Price Target INR 208 INR 216
gas sales fall under APM. We estimate the stock price factors ~USD 73/bbl oil FY25E FY26E
price for FY25E. With limited earnings growth, we downgrade ONGC to EPS %
- -
REDUCE.
▪ Limited upside to oil price realisation: Since its introduction on 1 July 2022, KEY STOCK DATA
the windfall tax levied by the government on crude oil production by ONGC Bloomberg code ONGC IN
has increased whenever the global crude oil price has been higher. This has
No. of Shares (mn) 12,580
essentially capped ONGC’s crude oil realisation to ~USD 75/bbl even when
Brent price rose >USD 90/bbl. With EIA estimating global oil demand growth MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 2,620/32,043

in 2024 to lag crude oil supply growth, we see limited upside risk to crude oil 6m avg traded value (INR mn) 2,050
prices. Every USD 10/bbl change in net oil price realisation changes ONGC’s 52 Week high / low INR 212/140
FY25E earnings by INR 7.8/share (~19%).
▪ Domestic gas price realisation unlikely to improve significantly: In April STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
2023, as per the recommendation of the Kirit Parikh Committee 3M 6M 12M
recommendation, the government cut APM gas price by 24% and froze it at Absolute (%) 11.1 31.4 44.8
6.5/mmbtu. There was no change in the pricing mechanism for gas produced
Relative (%) 0.6 18.1 25.9
from the KG basin. ONGC plans to ramp up production from its KG basin to
10mmscmd by May 2024 from current production of ~1.5mmscmd, which
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
would attract higher realisation, subject to the ceiling price as announced by
the government periodically. With 95% of ONGC’s gas sales falling under Jun-23 Sep-23

APM, we do not expect any material improvement in gas price realisation for Promoters 58.89 58.89
the company. Every USD 1/mmbtu change in gas price realisation changes FIs & Local MFs 19.83 19.59
ONGC’s FY25E earnings by INR 2.5/share (6%). FPIs 8.11 8.38
▪ Limited triggers for earnings growth: We estimate ONGC’s oil production at Public & Others 13.16 13.14
21.6/22.9/24.3mmt and gas production at 20.9/22.7/24.6bcm, implying a
Pledged Shares 0.00 0.00
production growth of 6% and 9% CAGR over FY24-26E respectively.
Source : BSE
However, with no material improvement in oil and gas realisations, we
estimate ONGC’s earnings to remain muted with EBITDA/PAT growth of
only 1/-1% CAGR over FY24-26E.
▪ Valuation: We value ONGC’s (standalone) upstream business at 4.5x FY25E
EPS and investments at a 25% discount to CMP, arriving at a target price of
INR 216/sh for ONGC. On FY25E, ONGC is trading at a PER of 5x—a 33%
premium to its three-year average PER of 3.8x, despite the estimated EPS Harshad Katkar
CAGR of -1% over FY24-26E and RoEs of 19.5/15.3/15.3% for FY24/25/26E. harshad.katkar@hdfcsec.com
Financial summary +91-22-6171-7319
(INR bn) FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E Nilesh Ghuge
Net Sales 5,318 6,848 6,822 7,207 7,678
nilesh.ghuge@hdfcsec.com
EBITDA 858 857 1,153 1,070 1,170
+91-22-6171-7342
APAT 512 393 591 524 584
AEPS (INR) 40.7 31.2 47.0 41.6 46.4 Akshay Mane
P/E (x) 5.1 6.7 4.4 5.0 4.5 akshay.mane@hdfcsec.com
EV / EBITDA (x) 4.4 4.4 2.7 2.9 2.4 +91-22-6171-7338
RoE (%) 21.3 14.5 19.5 15.3 15.3
Source: Company, HSIE Research

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters
ONGC: Company Update

Exhibit 1: We estimate ONGC’s crude oil/gas production to grow at 6/9% CAGR

over FY24-26E respectively
(mmt) Crude oil (incl. JV) Natural gas (incl. JV) - RHS (bcm)

27.0 30.0
24.9 24.6
26.0 22.8 22.7
21.7 21.4 20.9 25.0
25.0 24.3
24.0 23.4 20.0
22.9
22.5
23.0
21.7 21.5 21.6 15.0
22.0
21.0 10.0
20.0
5.0
19.0
18.0 -
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Exhibit 2: Quarterly Brent crude oil and ONGC’s oil realisation trend since
introduction of the windfall tax in Q2FY23
(USD/bbl) Brent crude oil ONGC's net realisation

120.0
111.1
110.0
110.8 97.9
100.0
89.1
86.1
90.0
79.0 78.2
80.0

70.0 77.6
74.9 73.5 75.3 74.0
60.0
Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 Q4FY23 Q1FY24 Q2FY24

Source: Bloomberg, Company, HSIE Research

Exhibit 3: APM gas price trend Exhibit 4: HPHT gas price ceiling
(USD/mmbtu) APM gas price (USD/mmbtu) HPHT gas price ceiling
8.6 9.2 12.5
10.0 14.0 12.1
8.0 6.1 6.5 6.5 12.0 9.9 10.0
6.0 10.0
2.9 8.0 5.6 6.1
4.0 2.4 1.8 1.8 6.0 4.1 3.6
2.0 4.0
- 2.0
8-Apr-23 to Sep-23*
Oct-21 to Mar-22
Oct-20 to Mar-21

Oct-22 to Mar-23

1-Apr-23 to 7-Apr-23

Oct-23 to Mar-24*
Apr-20 to Sep-20

Apr-21 to Sep-21

Apr-22 to Sep-22

-
Oct-20 to Mar-21

Oct-21 to Mar-22

Oct-22 to Mar-23

Oct-23 to Mar-24
Apr-20 to Sep-20

Apr-21 to Sep-21

Apr-22 to Sep-22

Apr-23 to Sep-23

Source: PPAC, HSIE Research | *Note: As per the Kirit Parikh Source: PPAC, HSIE Research
Committee recommendation

Page | 2
ONGC: Company Update

Exhibit 5: EIA estimates global demand growth to lag supply

(mbpd) Global oil supply Global oil demand
103.5
103.0
102.5

102.8
102.7
102.0

102.2

102.1
101.5

101.7
101.0

101.5

102.7
102.7
101.2
101.1

102.0
102.0
100.5

101.6
101.5
100.9
100.0

100.0
99.5
99.0
98.5

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024
Source: EIA, HSIE Research

Change in estimates: Our estimated earnings remain unchanged; however, our target
price is revised to INR 216/sh (from earlier INR 208/sh) on account of an increase in
value of investments. We see limited upside to ONGC’s crude oil realisation in the
current environment of windfall tax and no significant change in gas realisation is
expected, as APM gas price is frozen till March 2025 and 95% of ONGC’s gas sales fall
under APM. Therefore, with no material improvement in oil and gas realisations, we
estimate ONGC’s earnings to remain muted with EBITDA/PAT growth of only 1/-1%
CAGR over FY24-26E. Hence, we downgrade ONGC to a REDUCE from an ADD.

Exhibit 6: Change in estimates and TP

CMP TP (INR/sh) Old EPS (INR/sh) New EPS (INR/sh) Est Change (%)
RECO
(INR) Old New FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E
ONGC 208 REDUCE 208 216 47.0 41.6 46.4 47.0 41.6 46.4 - - -
Source: BSE, Company, HSIE Research

Exhibit 7: Sensitivity of ONGC FY25 EPS to change in net oil realisation by USD
10/bbl
Net realisation (USD/bbl) EPS % change
55 26.1 -37.4%
65 33.9 -18.7%
75 41.6 0.0%
85 49.4 18.7%
95 57.2 37.4%
Source: HSIE Research

Exhibit 8: Sensitivity of ONGC FY25 EPS to change in gas price by USD 1/mmbtu
APM gas price (USD/mmbtu) EPS % change
4.5 36.7 -12.0%
5.5 39.1 -6.0%
6.5 41.6 0.0%
7.5 44.1 6.0%
8.5 46.6 12.0%
Source: HSIE Research

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ONGC: Company Update

Exhibit 9: ONGC 1-year forward PER

P/E (x) Peak(x) Avg(x)
Min(x) 3-year avg P/E (x)
25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

Sep-22

Jul-23
Sep-12

Jul-13

Sep-17

Jul-18

Aug-20

Jun-21

Dec-23
Dec-13

Aug-15

Jun-16

Dec-18
Apr-12

Apr-17

Apr-22
Jan-21
May-14

Jan-16

May-19

Nov-21
Nov-16
Oct-14
Mar-15

Oct-19
Mar-20

Feb-23
Feb-13

Feb-18
Source: NSE, Company, HSIE Research

Exhibit 10: ONGC 1-year forward P/B

P/B (x) Peak(x) Avg(x)
Min(x) 3-year avg P/B (x)
2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
Dec-13

Dec-18

Dec-23
Apr-12

Apr-17

Apr-22
Sep-12

Jun-16

Sep-17

Jun-21

Sep-22
Aug-15

Aug-20
May-14

May-19
Mar-15

Jan-16

Nov-16

Mar-20

Jan-21

Nov-21
Feb-13
Jul-13

Oct-14

Feb-18
Jul-18

Oct-19

Feb-23
Jul-23
Source: NSE, Company, HSIE Research

Exhibit 11: Consolidated peer set comparison

TP P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x)
Consolidated CMP RECO
(INR) FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E
ONGC 208 REDUCE 216 5.0 4.5 0.7 0.7 15.3 15.3 2.9 2.4
OIL 383 ADD 320 6.1 5.9 0.8 0.7 14.1 12.6 4.3 3.8
Devon Energy 46 NR NR 7.6 7.3 2.1 1.8 28.1 26.0 4.5 4.4
Occidental
60 NR NR 12.5 12.1 2.2 1.9 15.8 14.7 5.1 5.1
Petroleum
Conoco
117 NR NR 11.9 11.8 2.7 2.5 22.7 20.2 5.5 5.5
Phillips
EOG
121 NR NR 9.5 9.4 2.2 1.9 23.9 22.6 5.1 5.0
Resources
CNOOC 2 NR NR 4.1 4.2 0.8 0.7 19.5 17.7 1.9 1.9
Saudi Aramco 9 NR NR 17.0 17.0 4.9 4.7 29.2 27.9 8.1 8.0
Woodside
21 NR NR 13.8 16.4 1.1 1.1 8.2 6.4 4.1 4.6
Petroleum
Source: NSE, Bloomberg, HSIE Research

Page | 4
ONGC: Company Update

INCOME STATEMENT
(INR bn) FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Net Revenues 5,318 6,848 6,822 7,207 7,678
Growth % 47.48 28.78 (0.39) 5.66 6.54
Raw Material 2,226 2,687 2,311 2,731 3,047
Employee Cost 69 68 146 145 145
Other Expenses 2,165 3,236 3,212 3,262 3,317
EBITDA 858 857 1,153 1,070 1,170
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.1 12.5 16.9 14.8 15.2
EBITDA Growth (%) 51.5 (0.1) 34.5 (7.2) 9.3
Depreciation 328 347 365 378 397
EBIT 530 510 788 692 773
Other Income (Including EO Items) 53 (1) 69 73 76
Interest Cost 57 79 87 85 89
PBT 526 430 770 680 761
Taxes 48 103 194 171 191
RPAT 478 327 576 509 569
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) (19) (65) - - -
APAT 498 392 576 509 569
Share of associates and minority interest 15 0 15 15 15
Consolidated Net Profit (Adjusted) 512 393 591 524 584
APAT Growth % 147.3 (23.3) 50.5 (11.4) 11.5
AEPS 40.7 31.2 47.0 41.6 46.4
EPS Growth % 147.3 (23.3) 50.5 (11.4) 11.5
Source: Company, HSIE Research

BALANCE SHEET
(INR bn) FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital 63 63 63 63 63
Reserves And Surplus 2,532 2,744 3,181 3,544 3,955
Net Worth 2,595 2,806 3,244 3,607 4,018
Minority Interest 238 206 216 227 239
Long-term Debt 880 984 962 992 1,022
Short-term Debt 197 308 228 248 268
Total Debt 1,078 1,292 1,190 1,240 1,290
Net Deferred Taxes 383 321 606 535 599
Long-term Provisions & Others 484 505 530 557 585
Total liabilities 4,778 5,131 5,788 6,166 6,731
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block 2,784 2,788 2,831 2,983 3,126
CWIP 715 740 742 770 800
Investments 613 737 774 813 853
LT Loans And Advances 26 30 34 39 45
Other Non-current assets 631 684 691 709 727
Total Non-current Assets 4,769 4,978 5,072 5,313 5,551
Inventory 542 442 463 489 521
Debtors 217 214 224 248 277
Cash And Cash Equivalent 122 343 879 997 1,297
Loans And Advances 5 5 5 6 6
Other Current Assets 200 164 169 184 199
Total Current Assets 1,085 1,168 1,739 1,923 2,300
Creditors 402 336 342 361 385
Other Current Liabilities & Provns 675 678 682 708 736
Total Current Liabilities 1,077 1,014 1,023 1,069 1,121
Net Current Assets 8 153 716 853 1,180
Total Assets 4,778 5,131 5,788 6,166 6,731
Source: Company, HSIE Research

Page | 5
ONGC: Company Update

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

(INR bn) FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Reported PBT 526 430 770 680 761
Non-operating & EO Items (19) 66 (55) (58) (61)
Interest Expenses 57 79 87 85 89
Depreciation 328 347 365 378 397
Working Capital Change 19 76 (27) (19) (26)
Tax Paid (119) (164) 91 (242) (128)
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 791 835 1,232 824 1,031
Capex (522) (376) (410) (557) (571)
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 270 459 821 266 460
Investments (67) (124) (37) (39) (41)
Non-operating Income 53 (1) 69 73 76
Others (34) (56) (12) (23) (24)
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (568) (556) (390) (546) (559)
Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (20) 214 (101) 49 50
Interest Expenses (57) (79) (87) (85) (89)
FCFE 192 594 633 231 422
Share Capital Issuance - - - - -
Dividend (132) (142) (139) (147) (158)
Others (17) (51) 21 22 24
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (227) (57) (306) (160) (172)
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (4) 221 536 118 300
EO Items, Others
Closing Cash & Equivalents 122 343 879 997 1,297
Source: Company, HSIE Research

KEY RATIOS
Ratio FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
PROFITABILITY %
EBITDA Margin 16.1 12.5 16.9 14.8 15.2
EBIT Margin 10.0 7.4 11.5 9.6 10.1
APAT Margin 9.6 5.7 8.7 7.3 7.6
RoE 21.3 14.5 19.5 15.3 15.3
Core RoCE 13.4 11.0 14.7 12.5 13.2
RoCE 12.1 9.1 12.0 9.8 10.1
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate % 9.1 23.9 25.2 25.2 25.2
Asset Turnover (x) 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1
Inventory (days) 37 24 25 25 25
Debtor (days) 15 11 12 13 13
Other Current Assets (days) 14 9 9 10 10
Payables (days) 66 46 54 48 46
Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 46 36 36 36 35
Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (46) (38) (44) (37) (33)
Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 (0.0)
Net D/E 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 (0.0)
Interest Coverage 9.3 6.5 9.1 8.1 8.7
PER SHARE DATA
EPS (Rs) 40.7 31.2 47.0 41.6 46.4
CEPS (Rs) 66.8 58.8 76.0 71.7 78.0
DPS (Rs) 10.5 11.2 11.0 11.7 12.5
BV (Rs) 206.3 223.1 257.9 286.7 319.4
VALUATION
P/E (x) 5.1 6.7 4.4 5.0 4.5
P/Cash EPS (x) 3.1 3.5 2.7 2.9 2.7
P/BV (x) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 4.4 2.7 2.9 2.4
EV/Revenue (x) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4
OCF/EV (%) 20.8 22.1 39.2 26.7 36.2
FCFF /EV (%) 7.1 12.2 26.1 8.6 16.2
FCFE/M CAP (%) 7.3 22.7 24.2 8.8 16.1
Dividend Yield (%) 5.0 5.4 5.3 5.6 6.0
Source: Company, HSIE Research

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ONGC: Company Update

1 Yr Price history

ONGC
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
Jan-23

Feb-23

Apr-23
Mar-23
Dec-22

May-23

Aug-23

Dec-23
Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23
Jun-23

Jul-23

Rating Criteria
BUY: >+15% return potential
ADD: +5% to +15% return potential
REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential
SELL: >10% Downside return potential

Page | 7
ONGC: Company Update

Disclosure:
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views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. SEBI conducted the inspection and based on
their observations have issued advise/warning. The said observations have been complied with. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,
or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities
Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have
beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does have/does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock –No
HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

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