Epidemic threshold: A new spectral and

structural approach of prediction

Keywords: Epidemic threshold, Energy of graph, Eigenvalues, Network

structures, Complex networks, Infectious disease.
By:
KANYOU Claude, Étienne KOUOKAM, Yves Sébastien EMVUDU W ON O†

4 octobre 2022

Kanyou et al. (UYI) CARI 2022 4 octobre 2022 1 / 28

Contents

1 Introduction

2 Concepts definition

3 Previous approaches and their limitations

4 Methodology

5 Experimentation, Results and Discussion

6 Conclusion and future works

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Introduction (1/2)
Context and Motivation

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Introduction (2/2)
Context and Motivation

Context and Motivation

Real phenomena as disease spreading, behavior contagion,
and rumor are described as a network spreading process.

Understanding the network structure allows to improves

the predictions.

Prediction of the epidemic threshold in a network is a

challenge where contact network structure fundamentally
influences the propagation.

Over complex networks, the flexibility, accuracy,

parameterization, understanding of the epidemic thresholds
prediction is useful.

Kanyou et al. (UYI) CARI 2022 4 octobre 2022 4 / 28

Concepts definition
The Epidemic threshold
It’s the incidence of a disease at which it can be considered
an epidemic : τ = β/γ, or τ = 1/R0 (Dietz, 1974).
τ is the critical ratio value beyond which an infection
spread and becomes an epidemic (Wang, 2003).
τ depends not only on the transmission and recovery rates
of a disease, but also fundamentally on the network
structure.

Kanyou et al. (UYI) CARI 2022 4 octobre 2022 5 / 28

Concepts definition
The Epidemic threshold
It’s the incidence of a disease at which it can be considered
an epidemic : τ = β/γ, or τ = 1/R0 (Dietz, 1974).
τ is the critical ratio value beyond which an infection
spread and becomes an epidemic (Wang, 2003).
τ depends not only on the transmission and recovery rates
of a disease, but also fundamentally on the network
structure.

The energy of graph

It is a graph-spectrum-based quantity. The original version
of graph Penergy from the year 1978 in (Gutman, 1978) :
E(G) = ni=1 |λi |, where λi is the ith eigenvalue.
Unexpected large applications in science and engineering
(Gutman, 2020), epidemiology (Mieghem, 2015).
Kanyou et al. (UYI) CARI 2022 4 octobre 2022 5 / 28
Previous approaches and their limitations (1/4)
The Mean-field (MF) approach

Based on the works of Kephart and White (Kephart, 1991)

who adopted a modified homogeneous approach in which
directed graphs modeled the interactions among persons.
1
Epidemic threshold is : τcM F = hki , where hki is the first
moment of the degree distribution.

MF assumes that all nodes in the network are statistically

equivalent : the interaction probabilities between any two
nodes are the same.

Contact network structure is not considered.

MF approach can be inaccurate when network degree

distribution is asymmetric, and heterogeneous.

Kanyou et al. (UYI) CARI 2022 4 octobre 2022 6 / 28

Previous approaches and their limitations (2/4)
The Heterogeneous mean-field (HMF) approach

To more capture network structure, (Pastor, 2001)

improved the MF to obtain Heterogeneous mean-field
(HMF).

The epidemic threshold is : τcHM F = hk2hki

i−hki
, where hk 2 i
is the second moments of the degree distribution.

HMF is more useful under the mean-field assumption of

independence between node’s infectious states.

HMF neglects the dynamic correlations among the states of

neighbors.

Due to its parameters, HMF approach can be inaccurate for

the node’s quenched connections.

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Previous approaches and their limitations (3/4)
The Quenched mean-field (QMF) approach

Because neither MF nor HMF approach can capture enough

contact network structure : QMF approach is developed.

QMF is widely used to study the dynamic spreading

(Wang, 2016)

In (Wang, 2003), there is a discrete-time formulation to

predict the epidemic threshold problem with any
assumption of homogeneous connectivity.
1
Epidemic threshold is : τcQM F = λmax
, where λmax is the
largest eigenvalue of A.

QMF is an advanced approach that is more accurate than

the MF and HMF.

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Previous approaches and their limitations (4/4)

Observations
1 There are many approaches to predict the epidemic
threshold.

2 We are interested to develop a new general structural and

spectral approach to the prediction that more captures the
full network structure.

3 By using structural and spectral properties of a network

such as A, n, eigenvalues, and the energy of graph :
improved τ can be possible !

Kanyou et al. (UYI) CARI 2022 4 octobre 2022 9 / 28

Methodology (1/2)

Figure: Methodology (illustrated) in six generic steps (Kazienko, 2018)

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Methodology (2/2)

Methodology
A structural analysis, representation, visualization, and
interpretation of the network structural and spectral
properties.

Enriched the global methodology using descriptive,

diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive analysis.

A specific DataFrame has been built to facilitate the

extraction of hidden useful structural and spectral
properties from 31 social networks in our dataset.

After 100 series of 31 simulations, data analytics, and

visualization provide results.

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Dataset

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Empirical assumptions

Empirical assumptions
1 Contact network structure fundamentally influences an
infectious disease spread.
2 Predict the epidemic threshold with full network structure,
with flexibility, parameterization, accuracy, understanding.
3 Not assuming homogeneous connectivity or any particular
topology in the discrete-time.
4 During each time interval, an infected node i tries to infect
its neighbors with probability β ; at the same time, i may
be cured with probability γ.
5 Epidemic threshold prediction must share similar properties
with the others, both conceptually, and experimentally.

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Experimentation, Results and Discussion (1/10)

The proposed new approach

kn
τcKSE = E(G)
e−1/λmax
E(G) is the graph energy of the network,
λmax is the largest eigenvalues,
and k is the real parameter, n the nodes number,
KSE means : K Spectral Energy.

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Experimentation, Results and Discussion (1/10)

The proposed new approach

kn
τcKSE = E(G)
e−1/λmax
E(G) is the graph energy of the network,
λmax is the largest eigenvalues,
and k is the real parameter, n the nodes number,
KSE means : K Spectral Energy.

Notes
With data analytic and data visualisation technics :
the simulations are driven to answer the question of how
the new approach is similar,
and perform in real a good performance than the earlier,
including the most used QMF.

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Experimentation, Results and Discussion (2/10)

Figure: The scatter dashed line visualization of the MF, HMF, QMF and the
proposed KSE epidemic threshold
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Experimentation, Results and Discussion (3/10)

MF HMF QMF KSE

mean 0.197 0.216 0.146 0.143
std 0.122 0.219 0.090 0.068
min 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.051
25% 0.121 0.101 0.100 0.114
50% 0.147 0.143 0.128 0.124
75% 0.266 0.286 0.218 0.165
max 0.497 0.978 0.333 0.383
IQ 0.145 0.185 0.117 0.050
range 0.487 0.967 0.323 0.332
Table: The summary of the descriptive statistic values of the MF, HMF, QMF
and the proposed KSE epidemic threshold

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Experimentation, Results and Discussion (4/10)

Figure: The area visualization of the MF, HMF, QMF and the proposed KSE
epidemic threshold
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Experimentation, Results and Discussion (5/10)

Figure: The stacked area visualization of the MF, HMF, QMF and the
proposed KSE epidemic threshold
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Experimentation, Results and Discussion (6/10)

Figure: The gap between the MF, HMF, and QMF epidemic threshold related
to the new KSE

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Experimentation, Results and Discussion (7/10)

e_MF_KSE e_HMF_KSE e_QMF_KSE

count 31.000 31.000 31.000
mean 0.019 0.026 -0.022
std 0.093 0.182 0.078
min -0.068 -0.279 -0.221
25% -0.056 -0.066 -0.074
50% 0.010 -0.022 -0.0350
75% 0.025 0.034 0.007
max 0.308 0.788 0.188
IQ 0.081 0.099 0.081
range 0.375 1.066 0.409
Table: The summary of the descriptive statistic values of the gap or difference
between MF, HMF, QMF approach related to the KSE

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Experimentation, Results and Discussion (8/10)

sumsq df F PR(>F)
C(epidemic_threshold) 0.069756 3.0 1.333407 0.266773
Residual 2.092552 120.0 NaN NaN

Table: The ANOVA F and p-value to the MF, HMF, QMF approach
related to the KSE

ANOVA Interpretation
The p-value 0.267 > 0.10 is obtained from ANOVA analysis :
Reading to accept the null hypothesis between different sets
of epidemic threshold,
"Not significant" difference.
Thus, there is no statistical difference between the sets of
epidemic thresholds experimented in large dataset heterogeneity.
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Experimentation, Results and Discussion (9/10)

Model Accuracy Transparency Flexibility Parameter

MF Poor fit : net- Easy : single Poor : due to its Poor : the use of
work structure parameter hki. assumptions. a single parame-
isn’t considered. ter hki.
HMF Poor fit : due Medium : can Medium : due to Medium : the
to its parame- assess the role its assumptions. use of 2 parame-
ters, can be in- of hki, hk2 i. ters hki, hk2 i.
accurate.
QMF Medium fit : Easy : due to Good : due to Poor : the use of
captures net- it single para- its assumptions. a single parame-
work structure meter λmax . ter λmax .
using only λmax
KSE. Hight fit : Medium : not More good : due Good due to the
captures the very easy to as- to its assump- use of 4 structu-
full network sess the role tions, using of ral and spectral
structure using of each para- the global net- global network
{λmax , E(G), meter, interac- work properties parameters in
n, k } in a tions with the {λmax , E(G), n} fundamental
relationship. whole. and a scale k. relationship.

Table: The advantages and benefits of the new approach over the earlier
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Experimentation, Results and Discussion (10/10)

Main originality and novelty

A design and experimentation of a new epidemic threshold
approach of prediction by :
1 Network structural and spectral properties at a specific and
global level : expanding the theoretical scope.
2 Systemic area : components, function and evolution.
3 More flexible with 4 structural and spectral parameters (at
specific and global level) in a fundamental relationship.
4 More explanatory, descriptive, significant.

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Conclusion and future works (1/2)
Conclusion

Conclusion
We designed and experimented a new original KSE
epidemic threshold approach of prediction that is general,
structural, and spectral.

The new approach further captures the full network

structure but is not limited by it, using {λmax , E(G), n, k}.

KSE is well similar to the earlier in the literature.

KSE is useful to analyze spreading processes in a network.

Results are useful for study propagation processes in

networks, particularly meaningful to decision-makers in
public health.

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Conclusion and future works (2/2)
Future works

Future works
1 Examine the temporal evolution of a specific infectious
disease in a network.
2 As well as to enhance the proposed epidemic threshold
approach with other spectral theory of graph concepts.
3 Use the epidemic threshold to build effective control of
infectious disease spread.

Kanyou et al. (UYI) CARI 2022 4 octobre 2022 25 / 28

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CARI 2022 in Physics. 4 octobre 2022 26 / 28
SNAM Data Science keyword cloud

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End of the presentation

Thank you for your kind attention !

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