This article has been accepted for publication in a future issue of this journal, but has not been

fully edited. Content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI
10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2953733, IEEE Access

Date of publication xxxx 00, 0000, date of current version xxxx 00, 0000.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/ACCESS.2017.Doi Number

Metro Traffic Prediction and Service-oriented

Scheduling Optimization under Influence of
Train Arrivals
Jie Lei1, 2, 4, Wei Dong1, 2, Leilei Chang1, 2, 3, *, Xiaobin Xu4, Xiaojian Xu4
1
Beijing National Research Center for Information Science and Technology (BNRist), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100086, China
2
Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100086, China
3
Department of Management, High-tech Institute of Xi’an, Xi’an 710025, China
4
School of automation, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 410025, China

Corresponding author: Leilei Chang (e-mail: leileichang@hotmail.com).

This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant 2017YFB120700 , the
BNRist Program under Grant BNR2019TD01009, the National Science Foundation of China under Grants 71601180, 61603404,
61903108, and the NSFC-Zhejiang Joint Fund for the Integration of Industrialization and Informatization (U1709215).

ABSTRACT
Increasing in urban traffic brings heavy burden on metro transportations, especially for metro hubs which are crossing metro
stations with railways. It calls for special scheduling optimization for such metro hubs by taking consideration of train arrivals.
First, a detailed procedure is proposed on how to predict the traffic in such metro hubs under influence of train arrivals,
including metros train and metro stations. Moreover, a service-oriented metro scheduling optimization procedure is proposed.
Further analysis is then conducted when there is heavy traffic such as special holidays. A practical case on a major metro hub
is studies for validation, the Chongqingbei (Chongqing North) metro hub in the city of Chongqing, China. The Chongqingbei
metro hub is with four metro lines (Lines 3/4/10/Loop), three metro stations (Longtousi, Chongqingbei North Square,
Chongqingbei South Square), and two non-connected railway stations (Chongqingbei North and Chongqingbei South).
Passengers on three metro stations over four lines are calculated. Case study results show that: (1) when there is normal traffic,
a hybrid schedule is more effective in comparison with regular shifts for Line 3 while Lines 4/10/Loop require no additional
shifts, (2) when there is heavy traffic, an optimized metro schedule with a smaller interval (original 6-minute interval is
reduced to 4-minute) is more effective for Line 3 whereas hybrid shifts and Line 10 requires hybrid shifts and Line 4 and the
Loop Line require no additional shifts.
INDEX TERMS metro traffic prediction, scheduling optimization; train arrivals; Chongqingbei metro hub;
heavy traffic

I. INTRODUCTION in waste of resources. Comparatively, the metro train

Metros have become one of the most important
transportation means in urban development [1] [2]. Railways
also play an essential role in connecting different cities [3]
[4]. Therefore, the main metro hub in a city, more
specifically the one that connects the metro lines and railway
stations, is of great importance for supporting social
activities and economic growth by transferring people and
goods [5].
Unlike city hot zones such as CBDs and administrative
districts, i. e., government facilities, with clear rush hours
mainly in the mornings and evenings, the traffic of
transportation hubs is mainly affected by train arrivals,
which is not “rush hours” but “rush minutes” or even “rush
seconds”. Consequently, it cannot be dealt with simply
adding additional metro shifts which could very likely result
schedules should be optimized based on metro traffic
predictions for such metro hubs with special consideration
of train arrivals.
So far, most present studies have been focusing on
scheduling optimization for metro trains based on the OD
(orientation-departure) data. One of the main objectives is to
minimize passenger waiting time [1] [6], or demand from a
general perspective [7] [8] [9]. Later, as people’s
transportation needs grow, service has become a hot topic
[10] [11]. Among these researches, there is also consistency
in restraints definitions which consider the metro train shifts
as a continuous variable [6]-[8], or at least as a continuous
integral variable [12] [13]. However, this is not quite the
case in practical conditions when metro shifts are often in
equal intervals instead of any random intervals.

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 This article has been accepted for publication in a future issue of this journal, but has not been fully edited. Content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI
10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2953733, IEEE Access

Jie Lei, Wei Dong, Leilei Chang, et al: Metro Traffic Prediction and Service-oriented Scheduling Optimization under Influence of Train Arrivals

Furthermore, train arrivals at metro hubs have not yet period;

been paid much attention to. This is particularly due to j ,u
Plast , Ms (t )
number of passengers in the upper/down
jurisdiction separation because trains and metros in most j ,d
metro in the previous station for the jth line
cities, if not all, belong to different departments [5]. Plast , Ms (t ) at time t, j∈{1,2,…,J};
Moreover, we should also pay attention to special conditions Poffj ,u (t ), Poffj ,d (t ) number of passengers getting off in the
when there is heavier traffic than normal days, e. g., festivals, upper/down metro for the jth line at time t,
holidays or when schools and universities start and end. j∈{1,2,…,J};
Based on metro traffic prediction results, two metro number of train safety thresholds for the
Pjsafety
scheduling optimization strategies are proposed and applied jth line, j∈{1,2,…,J};
in a comparative fashion: by reducing the shifts intervals or
by adding additional shifts.  Ms , Rs (t ) probability of passengers walking from the
railway station to the metro station at time
To validate the proposed approach, a practical case is t;
studied on the Chongqingbei metro hub in the city of variables
Chongqing, China [14]. This metro hub is through by four distance from passengers getting off the
metro lines and three metro stations. More importantly, it is d1,jMs
railway station to railway station exit ticket
actually comprised of two non-connected railways stations
gate for the jth line, d1>0, j∈{1,2,…,J};
of which one for high speed trains and the other for normal j
d 2, Ms distance from train station exit ticket gate
speed trains. Case study results show that different strategies
and metro security gate for the jth line,
should be adopted under different conditions, especially
with different levels of traffic. d2>0, j∈{1,2,…,J};
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. j
d 3, Ms distance from metro security gate to
Section II introduces the calculation and prediction of waiting platform of the metro station for
passengers in the metro trains and stations. Section III the jth line, d3>0, j∈{1,2,…,J};
introduces two service-oriented metro scheduling j
PRs (t ) passengers arriving at metro station for the
optimization strategies. Section IV shows the practical case jth line from railway station at time t, j∈
study. This paper is concluded in Section V. {1,2,…,J};
II. MODELING j
Ppass (t ) number of random passengers for the jth
Index line at time t, j∈{1,2,…,J};
t index of time, t>0; j
Pwait (t ) number of passengers waiting at the metro
j index of metro line, j∈{1,2,…,J}; station for the jth line at time t, j ∈
u, d index of up/down line; {1,2,…,J};
T index of the arrival time of metro train; j ,u j ,d
Pwait (t ), Pwait (t ) number of passengers waiting for
Ms index of the metro station; upper/down metro for the jth line at time t,
Rs index of the railway station t>0, j∈{1,2,…,J};
Ts index of the selected period for research; j ,u
Pboard (t ) number of passengers accumulated
Mt index of the metro train; j ,d between two up/down metro for the jth line
l the number of the metro train, l ∈ Pboard (t )
at time t, j∈{1,2,…,J};
{1,2,…,L};.; j ,u
Ptrain (t ) number of passengers in one upper/down
Rt index of the railway train; metro for the jth line at time t, j ∈
j ,d
k the number of the railway train, k ∈ Ptrain (t ) {1,2,…,J};
{1,2,…,K};. PMs (t ) number of passengers in metro station at
Trk The arriving time the railway train k. time t, j∈{1,2,…,J};
Input number of passengers in metro station for
PMsj (t )
PRt (k ) total number of the passengers who would the jth line at time t, j∈{1,2,…,J};
get off the kth train, k∈{1,2,…,K};
PMs (t ), PMs (t ) number of passengers in upper/down metro
j ,u j ,d
j
DMs distance from passengers getting off the for the jth line at time t, j∈{1,2,…,J};
train station to waiting platform of the service number of metro train for the jth line from
metro station for the jth line, D>0, j ∈ Pj
the perspective of service, j∈{1,2,…,J};
{1,2,…,J}; We would predict and model the passengers in the metro
aRsj proportion of passenger for the jth line
hub from two perspectives, namely metro trains and metro
form one railway station, j∈{1,2,…,J}; stations.
 Msj ,u ,  Msj ,d proportion of passengers who will take the For passengers in the metro trains, it is comprised of
upper/down line for the jth line, j ∈ passengers getting off from the arriving trains, and random
{1,2,…,J}; passengers from nearby, accompanying other passengers, as
Mj number of the metro shifts during selected well as transferring between lines.
period for the jth line, M>0, j∈{1,2,…,J}; For passengers in the metro stations, it is comprised of
A, B
POD number of passengers from station A to passengers about to getting on and just getting off from the
station B recorded in OD data of daily metro trains in both up- and down-directions.
operation of metro station during selected

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Jie Lei, Wei Dong, Leilei Chang, et al: Metro Traffic Prediction and Service-oriented Scheduling Optimization under Influence of Train Arrivals

A. CALCULATION OF PASSENGERS WAITING AT THE where M j denotes the total number of the metro trains for
METRO STATION PER MINUTE the jth line during the selected period.
The passengers waiting at the metro stations for the jth The number of passengers between two up- and down-
j ,u j ,d
metro line at time t is comprised of two parts: passengers direction Pboard (t ), Pboard (t ) can be calculated by Eq. (10),
 j ,u
j
Pwait (t )

T
getting off from the trains in the railway station, PRsj (t ) , and  Pboard (t )   Pwait (t )
j ,u
(10)
 t T 1
random passengers, Ppass j
(t ) , who may be nearby,  T
 P j ,d (t ) 
accomplishing passengers, or making a transfer from one 

board 
t T 1
j ,d
Pwait (t )
metro line to another, etc. This is calculated by Eq. (1), where the number of passengers waiting for at the jth line
j
Pwait (t )=PRsj (t )  Ppass
j
(t ) (1) j ,u
per minute Pwait j ,d
(t ), Pwait (t ) can be calculate by Eq. (11),
For PRsj (t ) , it is calculated by integrating three factors: (1)  Pwait
j ,u
(t )   Ms
j ,u j
Pwait (t ) (11)
 j ,d
 Pwait (t )   Ms Pwait (t )
K trains arriving at time t, (2) the proportion of passengers j ,d j

going to get on the metro trains, and (3) the duration time is
 Msj ,u   Msj ,d  1 (12)
from the arriving time of the last kth train Trk to time t.
where  Ms ,  Ms is derived from the cross-sectional traffic
j ,u j ,d
PRsj (t ) is calculated in Eq. (2),
of the daily operation (OD) data.
K
PRsj (t )   PRt (k ) * aRsj   Ms , Rs ( )d
t
(2) The number of passengers getting off from the railway
k 1
Trk train to the metro station (suppose metro station B)
where  Ms , Rs ( ) can be calculated by the distance DMs j
and Poffj ,u (t ), Poffj ,d (t ) can be calculated by Eq. (13),
 j ,u
j ,u
T
the walking speed. The walking speed follows from the
 Poff (t )=POD   Pwait (t )  POD
A, B j ,u B ,C
normal distribution with N (  ,  2 ) .  t 1
The proportion of passenger to the jth line in railway  T j ,d
(13)
 j ,d
 Poff (t )=POD   Pwait (t )  POD
C ,B j ,d B, A
station aRsj is derived from the cross-sectional traffic of the
 t 1
daily operation (OD) data. where metro stations A and C are the last and next of metro
The distance of passenger getting off from the train to
station B, respectively. T j ,u , T j ,d denotes the arrival time of
the waiting platform of the metro station Dmsj consists of
the metro train for the jth line in the up- and down-direction,
three parts, which can be calculated by Eq. (5), respectively.
j
DMs  d1,jMs  d 2,j Ms  d3,j Ms (5)
C. CALCULATION OF PASSENGERS IN METRO
j
For Ppass (t ) , it is assumed as a random variable which STATION
follows from the Poisson distribution Poisson( ) with both The passengers in the metro station PMs (t ) is the sum of
expectation and variance as λ. Correspondingly, passengers from both the trains in the up- and down-
j
Ppass (t )=Prandom (t )* Poisson( ) (7) direction, and also from both getting on and off the metro
where Prandom (t ) would be a bigger number when there is a trains for all lines in this metro station.
The number of passengers in the metro station per minute
living district nearly and it is a smaller number when there is
just the railway station. PMs (t ) can be calculated by Eq. (14),
J
B. CALCULATION OF PASSENGERS IN THE METRO
PMs (t )   ( PMsj ,u (t )  PMsj ,d (t )) (14)
TRAIN j =1
The passengers in the metro train is calculated based on The number of passengers in the metro station from the
the passengers who are originally in the train with additional up-direction for jth line at time t PMsj ,u (t ) can be calculated by
passengers getting on board and minus the passengers who Eq. (15)-(17),
would get off. t
The passengers in the up- and down-direction in the metro PMsj ,u (t )  1 (t ) *  j ,u
Pwait ( )   2 (t ) * Poffj ,u (T ) (15)
train in the jth line Ptrain
j ,u j ,d
(t ), Ptrain (t ) is calculated by Eq. (8),  T j ,u ( n 1) 1

 1,1 t  T j ,u (n) 
 Ptrain (t )  Plast , Ms (t )  Pboard (t )  Poff (t )
j ,u j ,u j ,u j ,u

 j ,d (8) 1 (t )    (16)
1,2 t  T (n) 
j ,u
 Ptrain (t )  Plast , Ms (t )  Pboard (t )  Poff (t )
j ,d j ,d j ,d

where Plastj ,u, Ms (t ), Plastj ,d, Ms (t ) are the number of passengers in the  2,1 t  T j ,u (n  1)  t1 
up- and down-direction in the metro in the previous station,  
 
which can be calculated by Eq. (9),  2 (t )    (17)
 2,tx t  T (n  1)  t x 
j ,u
 Plastj ,u A, B
, Ms (t )=POD / M
j

 j ,d (9)  2,t t  T j ,u (n  1)  t x 1 
B, A
 Plast , Ms (t )=POD / M
j
 x1

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Jie Lei, Wei Dong, Leilei Chang, et al: Metro Traffic Prediction and Service-oriented Scheduling Optimization under Influence of Train Arrivals

where T j ,u (n  1)  tx1  T j ,u (n), x  N  , δ1 denotes the proportion

of passengers getting on the metro train when the metro
arrives at the station. δ2 denotes the proportion of passengers
leaving the train per minute, which reflects the time required
for passengers to get off the metro to the metro exit
(completely leaving the metro station).
The number of passengers in the metro station from the
Fig. 2 Lines 4/10/Loop in metro transportation in Chongqing
down-direction metro train PMsj ,d (t ) can be calculated by Eq.
(18)-(20), From the perspective of safety, train capacity is the
t number of train safety thresholds. Table 1 summarizes the
PMsj ,d (t )  1 (t )*  j ,d
Pwait ( )   2 (t )* Poffj ,d (T ) (18) statistics of four metro lines.
Table 1 Statistics of four metro lines
 T j ,d
( n 1) 1

1,1
t T
1 (t )    3
1,2 t  T (n) 
j ,d
 2,1
t  T j ,d (n  1)  t1 
 
  (20)
 2 (t )  
 2,tx t  T (n  1)  t x 
j ,d
 2,t
 x1 t  T j ,d (n  1)  t x 1 
where T j ,d (n  1)  t x 1  T j ,d (n), x  N  . Normally, T j ,u  T j ,d ,
since the up- and down-direction metro trains normally
don’t arrive at the same time.
III. SERVICE-ORIENTED METRO SCHEDULING
OPTIMIZATION
A. CALCULATION OF PASSENGERS IN METRO
STATIONS
Located in southwest China, Chongqing is a city
surrounded and covered by mountains. Unlike many other
major cities which use the Type B metro trains, customized
metro trains are adopted in Chongqing metros.
The cross-seat type monorail is adopted for Line 3 with 8
carriages. The carriage arrangements are
“Mc1+M2+M4+M5+M7+M6+M3+Mc2” with body width
of 29000mm and body lengths of 14800mm and 13900mm
for Mc and M, respectively. The seating capacity of 8
carriages is 1292 passengers. The maximum daily passenger
volume of such monorail is 1 million, which has reached the
same level as type B metro system [15].
Fig. 1 Line 3 in metro transportation in Chongqing
Comparatively, Lines 10, 4 and the Loop Line adopt As-
type metro trains which is different from both type B trains
and monorail trains and also customized for Chongqing
metro. It is with 6 carriages which are arranged as “Tc-M-T-
M-M-Tc” with body width of 28000mm and body lengths of
19500mm for M/T and 19000mm, respectively. It combines
the advantages of type A/B trains and optimizes vehicle
parameters and power configuration. It has strong climbing
and small curve passing abilities and can transport large
volume of passengers. Thanks to its longer carriages the
fixed passenger capacity can reach 1468 [15].
lines No. of carriages Limit of passengers
j ,d
(n)  (19)
8 1292
4 6 1468
10 6 1468
Loop 6 1468
Moreover, from the perspective of service, the threshold

Pjservice should be lower than the safety level by multiplying
a special service-related coefficient  by Eq. (21),
Pjservice  Pjsafety * (21)
where  should be is determined by taking consideration
of practical conditions.
B. SERVICE-ORIENTED METRO SCHEDULING
OPTIMIZATION
As a modern transportation means, the service quality of
metros needs to be improved in order to better meet
passengers’ needs. Ideally, this can be solved by increasing
metro shifts. However, it would also cost far much more
resources if too many metro shifts are added, including
manpower (drivers, ticket operators and maintenance
personnel, etc.) & management (inspector, operator,
supervisor, etc.), electricity consumption (in metro stations,
metro trains, and for metro trains operation, etc.) as well as
high inspection, maintenance and renewal costs (vehicles,
rails, signal systems, etc.).
So far, researchers have proposed multiple means to
optimize the metro shifts by taking consideration of both
operation efficiency and costs [7]-[11].
However, there are also certain impracticality of many
existent studies. The most significant difference between
many existent studies and practical condition is that practical
operation did not allow over-sophisticated optimization
schedules. To be more specific, the metro operation
schedules should not be treated as a continuous variable in
practical conditions. Nevertheless, the interval between
shifts should also not be “too flexibles” as well. That is to
say, metro shifts intervals should not be constantly unequal.
In practical conditions, metro trains normally start at integral
time rather than at any time, and they often operate on equal
intervals. For example, a metro train would possibly start at
16:00 or 16:01 but nor 16:01:32, the interval between two
metro trains would likely be 3 minutes or 4 minutes (as a
constant interval) instead of 3/2/4/2/5 minutes (as uneven
and changing intervals). After all, it is all automatically
operated.
With this, the solutions space of the metro operation
scheduling problem would be very limited. As a

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Jie Lei, Wei Dong, Leilei Chang, et al: Metro Traffic Prediction and Service-oriented Scheduling Optimization under Influence of Train Arrivals

consequence, two strategies are explored in this study, Step 4: Add another train at the middle of the train and the
namely equally reducing shifts intervals and adding last train, then l=l+1, and go to Step 2.
additional shifts only with heavy traffic. V. CASE STUDY
(1) Strategy I: equally reducing shifts intervals Located in southwest of China, Chongqing is a major
Strategy I denotes that the intervals between two metro metropolitan in China and even the world with over thirty
shifts would be reduced. For example, the original interval million people active economy. Covered by mountains,
between two metro shifts in Line 10 is eight minutes, and Chongqing is famous for the special mountainous landscape
Strategy I would reduce the original eight minutes to seven and earns another name: the mountain city.
or six minutes. Currently there are three railway stations in Chongqing,
Strategy I can be easily implemented as the metro shifts namely Chongqingbei Railway Station (Chongqing North
would still be in equal interval. However, it could also lead Railway Station), Chongqingxi Railway Station (Chongqing
to waste of resources as the metro shifts would still be in West Railway Station) and Chongqing Railway Station, as
reduced intervals when there is relatively light traffic. marked in Fig. 3(a).
(2) Strategy II: adding additional shifts only with heavy The three railway stations are with different type of trains
traffic and traffic, and they are in quite different conditions of
Strategy II denotes that additional metro shifts would only connecting the metro transportation means. There is no
be added as additional metro shifts when there is heavy metro line through the Chongqingxi Railway Station and
traffic. The difference between the two strategies is that only one metro line and one metro station through the
additional shifts would be added only when there is hearvy Chongqing Railway Station. Comparatively, the
traffic for Strategy II whereas additional shifts would be Chongqingbei Railway Station in a far more complicated
equally added for Strategy I. condition. It is with four metro lines (Lines 3, 10, and 4 and
Strategy II for the jth line in the upper-direction can be the Loop Line) and three metro trains (Longtousi (Line 3),
implemented as follows: Chongqingbei Railway Station North Square (Lines 10 and
Step 1: Initialization, for time t with l=1; 4), and Chongqingbei Railway Station South Square (Lines
Step 2: Calculate the number of passengers in the jth line 10, 3 and the Loop Line)), as marked in Fig. 3(b) and also in
in the upper-direction Ptrain
j ,u
(t ) ; Table 2.
Step 3: Compare Ptrain Furthermore, the Chongqingbei Railway Station is
j ,u
(t ) with the service-related actually comprised of two non-connected railway stations:
coefficient limit for the jth line, Pjservice . the north square of the Chongqingbei Railway Station only
if ( Ptrain
j ,u
(t )  Pjservice ) and l+1≤max(l) harbors the high-speed trains (for D- and G- trains over
200km/h), and the south square of the Chongqingbei
Go to Step 4; Railway Station only harbors the regular trains (for Z-, T-,
else K-, and more normally below 120km/h). More importantly,
if ( Ptrain
j ,u
(t )  Pjservice ) and l+1≤max(l) they are not connected with each other: passengers would
l=l+1, and go to Step 2; need to use the metro lines or buses (can not walk through)
else from one to the other. Thereby, the north and south squares
stop of Chongqingbei Railway Station should be considered as
end two separate railway stations.
end Therefore, the Chongqingbei metro station has become a
metro hub, and its specifics are summarized in Table 3.
Table 2 Statistics of the three railway stations in Chongqing
Metro trains trains (24 hours) trains (15:30-17:30)
No. lines No. stations Type of trains shifts passengers shifts passengers
High speed trains in the north square and
Chongqingbei 4 3 163 126673 19 14827
normal speed trains in the south square
Chongqingxi 0 0 Mostly high speed trains 121 83186 15 9195
Chongqing 1 1 Only normal speed trains 9 11340 3 3780
Table 3 specifics in the Chongqingbei metrohub
crossing metro station with crossing metro station with
metro station metro time per
Lines Chongqingbei Railway Station North Chongqingbei Railway Station South
before station after shift
Square (the railway station) Square (the railway station)
3 Tongjiayuanzi Longtousi (Long for short) Chongqingbei Railway Station South Shiziping 6 mins
Chongqingbei Railway Station North Square Longtoushi
10 Mingxingjiayuan 8 mins
Square (the metro station, South for short) Park
4 (the metro station, North for short) / Toutang 10 mins
Mingandadao
Loop / South Yulu 10 mins
Note: The up-direction of Lines 3 and 10 denotes the direction from the north to the south, and vice versa. Comparatively, the up-direction of
Line 4 and the Loop Line denotes the direction from the west the east, and vice versa.

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Jie Lei, Wei Dong, Leilei Chang, et al: Metro Traffic Prediction and Service-oriented Scheduling Optimization under Influence of Train Arrivals

(a)map of Chongqing with three railway stations (b) the Chongqingbei Railway Station
Fig. 3 Map of Chongqing and the Chongqingbei Railway Station
Based on survey results and OD data derived from
A. CALCULATION OF PASSENGERS IN THE METRO
Chongqing Rail Transit Group, the proportion of passenger
TRAINS
to different metro lines in the North Square (passengers
Upon investigation into the Chongqingbei Railway getting off from high speed trains) and South Square
Station and its nearby metro stations, the distances from (passengers getting off from normal speed trains) are given
passengers getting off the train station into the metro train in Table 5. The proportion of passengers who would take the
carriages in different metro stations are given in Table 4. up- and down-direction for each line are given in Table 6.
Note that the distance from Chongqingbei Railway Station Table 5 proportions of passengers per line
3 metro station Line 3 Line 10 Line 4 Loop Line
North Square to Longtoushi metro station on line 3, Dlong , is
north square 36.53% 25.16% 8.31% 0%
about 510 meters, but an 8-minite shuttle bus is needed. The south square 33.97% 28.64% 0% 7.89%
speed of the passenger obeys a normal distribution Table 6 proportion of passengers in up- and down-direction per
Nrail (   1.36,  2  0.26 ^ 2) [16]. lines and metro stations
Table 4 distance from railway trains to three metro carriages line 3 10 4 Loop
Station(lines) d1,jstation d 2,j station d3,j station j
Dstation metro
Long South North South North South
station
Long (3) 160 300 50 510 up 56.34% 55.22% 64.19% 64.48% 51.20% 50.93%
South (3) 156 98 63 317 down 43.66% 44.78% 35.81% 35.52% 48.80% 49.07%
North (10) 152 98 45 295
South (10) 156 105 48 309
Table 7 give the summarized results for the four lines. It
North (4) 152 98 57 307 shows that Line 3 requires additional shifts based on
South (loop) 156 105 55 316 Strategy II while the rest three lines require none.
A two-hour period between 16:00 to 18:00 is selected for Figs. 4 and 5 show the passengers per shift in Lines 3
two reasons: (1) it is with the most train arrivals (trains and 10 using different strategies, respectively. Table 8
arriving between 15:30-17:00), and (2) to avoid the shows the specific results for in the up-direction in South in
interference of rush hours. Line 3.

Table 7 number of shifts for Line 3/10/4/loop with different strategies

Line 3 Line 10 Line 4
Loop line
over- over- over- over-
No. strategy shifts strategy shifts strategy shifts strategy shifts
shifts shifts shifts shifts
1 6 40 4 8 30 0 10 24 0 10 24 0
2 5 48 0 7 34 0 9 26 0 9 26 0
3 4 60 0 6 40 0 8 30 0 8 30 0
4 3 80 0 5 48 0 7 34 0 7 34 0
5 hybrid 44 0 hybrid 30 0 hybrid 24 0 hybrid 24 0

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 This article has been accepted for publication in a future issue of this journal, but has not been fully edited. Content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI
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Jie Lei, Wei Dong, Leilei Chang, et al: Metro Traffic Prediction and Service-oriented Scheduling Optimization under Influence of Train Arrivals

Table 8 passengers per shift in metro carriages in up-direction in South of Line 3 from 16:00 to 18:00.
No. shift 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
passengers 746 532 842 734 775 942 519 573 598 541 1046
time 16:09 16:15 16:21 16:27 16:33 16:39 16:45 16:51 16:57 17:03 17:09
6min
No. shift 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
passengers 579 614 694 837 815 527 546 626
time 17:15 17:21 17:27 17:33 17:39 17:45 17:51 17:57
No. shift 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
passengers 746 532 842 734 775 623 632 519 573 598 541
time 16:09 16:15 16:21 16:27 16:33 16:36 16:39 16:45 16:51 16:57 17:03
hybrid
No. shift 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
passengers 514 810 579 614 694 837 815 527 546 626
time 17:06 17:09 17:15 17:21 17:27 17:33 17:39 17:45 17:51 17:57

Fig. 4 Passengers in up- and down-direction in metro carriages in Line 3 with different schedules from 16:00-18:00

Fig. 5 Passengers in up- and down-direction in metro carriages in Line 10 with different strategies from 16:00-18:00

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Jie Lei, Wei Dong, Leilei Chang, et al: Metro Traffic Prediction and Service-oriented Scheduling Optimization under Influence of Train Arrivals

B. CALCULATION OF PASSENGERS IN METRO both the Chongqing Railway Station and CBDs (i. e., the
STATIONS Guanyinqiao CBD district), whereas Line 10 connects the
Based on survey and statistical results, the passengers in airport and several heavily populated living districts in the
the metro stations would be calculated in this section. northern of Chongqing. From this perspective, Lines 3 and
For each station in up- and down-directions in each line, 10 require additional metro shifts, using either Strategy I or
j II, whereas Lines 4/10/Loop do not.
the number of passengers in the metro station Pstation (t ) can
be calculated by Eqs. (14-20). Table 9 shows the parameters. C. CALCULATION OF PASSENGERS IN METRO
Table 9  in metro stations in up- and down-direction of each STATION UNDER HEAVY TRAFFIC
line Based on survey and statistical results, this section takes
1,1 (t ) 1, 2  2,1  2, 2  2,3  2, 4
a further investigation into conditions with a heavier traffic
t  T j , d ( n) t  T j , d ( n) t1  1 t3  2 t3  3 t4  4 flow, i. e., special holidays.
Long up 1.00 0 1.00 0.63 0.24 0.04 Upon investigation, the Chongqingbei Railway Station
(3) down 1.00 0 1.00 0.60 0.22 0 would have to deal with up to 30% additional passengers
North up 1.00 0 1.00 0.64 0.23 0.02 when in special holidays. Therefore, the traffic is set at
(10) down 1.00 0 0.98 0.67 0.26 0.01 130% of the original passenger estimation. We would also
North up 1.00 0 1.00 0.69 0.18 0 investigate the results of the two strategies.
(4) down 1.00 0 0.97 0.67 0.22 0.01 Fig. 9 compares the passengers in metro trains/stations
South up 1.00 0 1.00 0.61 0.24 0.03 under normal/heavy traffic. Table 10 summarizes the
(3) down 1.00 0 0.99 0.59 0.19 0.01
number of metro shifts and also those with over-numbered
South up 1.00 0 1.00 0.63 0.24 0
(10) down 1.00 0 1.00 0.62 0.20 0.01
passengers using different strategies.
South up 1.00 0 0.99 0.57 0.21 0.02
Upon comparison, it can be found that different
(loop) down 1.00 0 1.00 0.58 0.22 0 strategies work differently under different conditions:
Take the long station in the up-direction of Line 3 as an (1) When under heavy traffic, Strategy I should be
applied for Line 3 instead of Strategy II which is different
example, where 1,1 =1 denotes that everyone is waiting, 1,2 =0
from the results under normal traffic as found in the
denotes that the metro arrived and carried all the waiting previous section. Under heavy traffic, by only adding more
passengers.  2,1 =1.00 denotes that all the passengers are still shifts with over-populated passengers would also put the
inside the metro station for one minute after they get off, new added shifts in the same condition. In other words,
 2,2 =0.63 denotes that 63% of passengers are still stranded in Strategy II would only “move” over-numbered passengers
metro station in the second minute after getting off,  2,3 =0.24 from one metro shift to another, but could not effectively
denotes that 24% of passengers are still stranded in metro alleviate the over-crowded condition. Comparatively,
station the third minute after getting off,  2,4 =0.04 denotes Strategy I which reduces metro shifts intervals from six
that almost all passengers have left the station (only 4% still minutes to four minutes could solve this problem by adding
in the metro station) until the fourth minute after getting off much more shifts.
the metro train. (2) For Lines 10, Strategy II (hybrid shifts) works better
Figs. 6-8 shows the calculation results where different than Strategy I. This is partially because there are not so
colors denote different density of passengers. It indicates many passengers in the three lines in the first place. In other
that: words, too many extra shifts would inevitably cause waste
(1) Long and North generally do not have over- of resources for the three lines.
populated passenger problem whereas South would be (3) Comparatively, the South Station is still with the
expecting a heavier traffic in early 16:00-16:15. This is most passengers while Long and North are less severe. All
primarily caused by that more passengers concentrated in all, the selection of a strategy must be made upon
within a short time interval in South whereas trains are with extensive investigation of the specific condition of the actual
a more divided time span for Long and North. volume of traffic of train arrivals, proportion of passengers
(2) To further consider the condition in South and also of different metro lines, as well as the capacity of metro
the results in the previous section, the heavier traffic in lines and metro stations.
South is mainly caused by Lines 3 and 10. Line 3 connects
Table 10 number of shifts of Line 3/10/4/Loop with different strategies under heavy traffic
Line 3 Line 10 Line 4 Loop line
over- over- over- over-
No. strategy shifts strategy shifts strategy shifts strategy shifts
shifts shifts shifts shifts
1 6 40 39 8 30 2 10 24 0 10 24 0
2 5 48 10 7 34 2 9 26 0 9 26 0
3 4 60 1 6 40 0 8 30 0 8 30 0
4 3 80 0 5 48 0 7 34 0 7 34 0
5 Hybrid 68 2 Hybrid 32 0 hybrid 24 0 hybrid 24 0

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Jie Lei, Wei Dong, Leilei Chang, et al: Metro Traffic Prediction and Service-oriented Scheduling Optimization under Influence of Train Arrivals

Fig.6 number of passengers in the Long metro station using different strategies

Fig.7 number of passengers in the North metro station using different strategies

Fig.8 number of passengers in the South metro station using different strategies

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Jie Lei, Wei Dong, Leilei Chang, et al: Metro Traffic Prediction and Service-oriented Scheduling Optimization under Influence of Train Arrivals

Fig. 9 Passengers in metro carriages and stations using different strategies under heavy traffic

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Jie Lei, Wei Dong, Leilei Chang, et al: Metro Traffic Prediction and Service-oriented Scheduling Optimization under Influence of Train Arrivals

VI. CONCLUSIONS [17] X. Yang, A. Chen, J. J. Wu, Z. Y. Gao, T. Tang. "An energy-efficient
This study proposes a metro traffic prediction approach rescheduling approach under delay perturbations for metro systems."
Trans. B: Trans. Dyn., vol. 7, pp. 386-400, 2019.
for railway-connecting metro hubs with consideration of
train arrivals. Based on metro traffic prediction results, a
service-oriented metro scheduling optimization procedure JIE LEI received the B.S degree in Electrical
Engineering and Automation from Huzhou
with two strategies is also proposed. University, Huzhou, Zhejiang, China, in 2018.
A practical case of the Chongqingbei metro hub under Currently he is with the Tsinghua University, he
both normal and heavy traffic is studied for validation. Case is also studying for a master's degree in control
study results show that the service-oriented optimization engineering at Hangzhou Dianzi University.
procedure is effective in alleviating the traffic pressure while
the selection of the specific strategy should be determined
upon consideration of practical conditions.
For future studies, more practical cases should be studied
to better validate the proposed approach. With new WEI DONG received the B.S. and Ph.D.
validations, new restraints brought by practical conditions degrees from the Department of Automation,
should be taken into modeling and optimization as well. Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, in 2000
and 2006, respectively.
He is currently an Associate Professor with the
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