Waste Manage Res 2002: 20: 259–268
Printed in UK – all rights reserved
Long-term settlement behaviour of MSW landfills
with various fill ages
MSW landfill settlement characteristics are peculiar
because a considerable amount of settlement occurs due
to the decomposition of waste organic solids for very long
duration. The total amount of settlement that occurs due
to this decomposition in a MSW landfill is mainly
dependent upon the amount of biodegradable solid waste
and hence the fill age of the MSW landfill. The
settlement stabilisation period is also dependent upon the
decomposition condition. In order to investigate the
settlement characteristics of MSW landfills, a mathemat-
ical model was proposed and applied to settlement data of
MSW landfills which have various fill ages. A data bank
of model parameters were obtained and the trends were
analysed. The long-term settlement behaviour of MSW
landfills can be fairly well estimated by the proposed
model. It is supposed that the total remaining amount of
settlement might be predicted on the basis of the fill age
with two appropriate design parameters.
Introduction
MSW(Municipal Solid Waste) landfills often require large
tracts of land on or immediately beyond the urban growth
boundary of metropolitan area (Zeiss & Atwater 1989).
This land often cannot be developed for subsequent uses
because of differential settlement, leachate generation,
and landfill gas emissions. Nevertheless, it seems probable
that some sites, which have been currently used for the
disposal of MSW, will be considered for building develop-
ment in future. Especially, the long-term settlement
characteristics of MSW landfills will be of interest to
developers and planning authorities.
MSW landfill suffers a large amount of long-term
settlement that is associated with volume reduction
caused not only by biodegradation of organic waste but
Waste Management & Research
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Copyright © ISWA 2002
Waste Management & Research
ISSN 0734–242X
H. I. Park
Department of Civil Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of
Science and Technology, Taejon, 305-701 KOREA
S. R. Lee
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Korea
Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon, 305–701
KOREA
Keywords – MSW, settlement, long-term settlement, fill age,
landfill, wmr 460–5
Corresponding author: H. I. Park, Department of Civil
Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and
Technology, Taejon, 305-701 KOREA, E-mail: baggi77@
hotmail.com
Received 21 September 2000
also by physical creep compression. The most important
cause of the long-term settlement is generally volume
reduction due to the decomposition of organic solids,
which may continue for a very long period. Wardwell &
Nelson (1981) illustrated that the observed additional
secondary strain due to the decomposition increased as
the amount of organic content increased; for example,
from 7% of strain for an organic content of 40% to about
27% of strain for an organic content of 70%. Based on the
results, it is conceivable that the remaining additional
long-term strain due to the decomposition is very depen-
dent on the amount of biodegradable organic solids.
In the same manner, a distinction must be made
between young (or fresh) recent MSW landfills and older
MSW landfills in estimating the remaining long-term
259
H. I. Park, S. R. Lee
settlement. It is obvious that if some amount of solid
material is decomposed in a fresh landfill, a considerable
amount of settlement should occur. On the other hand,
an older MSW landfill no longer has such organic
matter for the decomposition to occur and the remaining
particles are relatively inert. Therefore, the fill age is an
important factor in evaluating the further potential long-
term settlement due to the decomposition in MSW
landfills.
In MSW landfills, biodegradation is processed in four
stages in which solid organic particles are solubilised and
converted to methane and carbon dioxide through
methanogenesis. Once they are converted to a liquid form,
the intermediate decomposition products are drained out
of the landfill or are converted to methane and carbon
dioxide through methanogenesis. Therefore, the decom-
position step that is of concern for geotechnical engineers
is the conversion of refuse organic solids to liquid. Detailed
studies of the degradation process indicate that polymer
hydrolysis is responsible for this solubilisation (Barlaz et al.
1990). During the initial stage of decomposition, there is a
significant amount of readily degradable soluble substrate
present. Therefore, the rate of the overall process should
be governed by methanogenesis.
However, once the readily degradable soluble substrates
are exhausted, the overall process is controlled by
hydrolysis. Since the most abundant carbon sources in
municipal waste are insoluble (cellulose and hemicellu-
lose), the majority of the decomposition process is limited
by hydrolysis (Halvadakis et al. 1983). Common practice
by many researchers is to assume that cellulose hydrolysis
occurs by first order kinetics (Chen 1974; McGowan et al.
1988; El-Fadel et al. 1989; Young 1989). Obviously, if this
amount of solid material is converted into a liquid form
and hence can be readily drained out of a landfill, a con-
siderable amount of settlement should occur.
Park & Lee (1997) proposed a simple mathematical
model that considers the decomposition process (solubili-
sation stage) in relation with the volume decrease. The
decomposition causes larger voids to develop within the
landfill. Therefore, the balance between the voids and the
self weights of the landfill materials may be upset due to
the decomposition. They presumed that the phenomenon
(settlement by degradation) can be explained by first-
order kinetics. Here, the proposed mathematical model
was used to analyse settlement data of seven MSW
landfills which have various fill ages of from 0 to 25 years.
260 Waste Management & Research
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The long-term settlement behaviour will be characterised
and a relationship between the remaining amount of set-
tlement and fill age will be discussed along with the effects
of parameters governing the settlement behaviour.
Long-term settlement and decomposition
Long-term settlement of MSW landfills
Immediate settlement due to an applied load may be com-
pleted in a relatively short period in a MSW landfill site.
However, a considerable amount of long-term settlement
occurs for several years and the long-term strain can be
expressed as follows (Sowers 1973; Gordon et al. 1986;
Sohn & Johnson 1991);
(t)long-term=(t)mec+(t)dec (1)
where (t)mec stands for the mechanical secondary
compression which occurs due to long-term slippages,
reorientation of particles and delayed compression of some
MSW constituents. On the other hand, dec represents
the compression that is induced by volume decrease of
biodegradable organic solids due to biological decomposi-
tion activities.
Effect of decomposition on long-term settlement
Wardwell & Nelson (1981) presented the results obtained
from a series of experiments designed to investigate the
effects of organic decomposition on the compressive
strain. They utilised two sets of cellulose fiber, kaolin clay,
and water mixtures. One of them was seeded with suffi-
cient nutrients to give a more efficient decomposition
condition. A representative graph of their results (Fig. 1
(a)) shows that after immediate settlement was complete,
the nutrient-deficient mixtures continued gradual settling
that diminished with time but the settlement curve of
nutrient-efficient sample developed linearly after a time
lapse. When it is expressed in a relationship of strain-log-
arithmic time, the settlement curve of nutrient-deficient
mixtures shows an approximately flat linear slope over the
whole range of time, while that of nutrient-efficient
sample shows a much greater slope after a time lapse. In
order to establish relationship between settlement and
decomposition of municipal waste, Kang et al. (1997) per-
formed lysimeter tests using MSW. One was recycled with
leachate to give a more efficient decomposition condition
and the other was not. In the logarithmic time and strain

Fig. 1. Influence of organic decomposition on long-term strain
curve (Fig. 1(b)), the two lysimeter test results are the
same for until several days, but the leachate recycled
lysimeter sample settled at accelerated rates due to the
decomposition of organic materials.
Bjarngard & Edgers (1990) also stated that the field
long-term compression behaviour could be separated
into two phases, based on an analysis of landfill settlement
Fig. 2. Landfill settlement versus log time relationships for 24 field case
histories (Bjarngard & Edgers 1990)
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Long-term settlement behaviour of MSW landfills with various fill ages
data collected from 24 case histories (Fig. 2). They
illustrated that in an early stage of delayed (or long-
term) compression, the settlement is dominated by
mechanical interactions such as long-term reorientation
and delayed compression of municipal wastes, but in
the later stage of compression the logarithmic compression
rates are higher because of the added effects of
decomposition.
Mechanical secondary compression
In order to investigate the settlement behaviour of MSW
landfills, large scale compression tests have been per-
formed by Rao et al. (1977), Bjarngard (1989), Landva &
Clark (1990), Jessberger & Kockel (1993), Korean
Geotechnical Society (1994), Gabr & Valero (1995) and
others. Since their tests only lasted several days, the
decomposition effects could not be included in their tests
and the settlements must be induced merely by the
mechanical secondary compression.
As shown in Fig. 3, the representative settlement curve
for the tests is linear in terms of strain-logarithmic time. It
is also very similar to the settlement characteristics of the
cases, which do not include a decomposition effect (Fig. 1)
Thus, the strain can be expressed as:
(t)mec=C,meclog[(t+t)/t] (2)
Waste Management & Research 261
H. I. Park, S. R. Lee

Fig. 3. Typical log time-strain curves for refuse specimens with different Fig. 4. The effects of pressure, density and decomposition level on the
fill ages rate of mechanical secondary compression

The rates of mechanical secondary compression for the
results are presented in Table 1.
Other tests have been also carried out to establish a
guideline for the values of C,mec (Fig. 4). It can be
observed that the rate of mechanical secondary compres-
sion is comparatively insensitive to the intensity of
pressure and density (Rao et al. 1977; Jessberger & Kockel
1993; Gabr & Valero 1995). Besides, the C,mec value of
fresh municipal waste is approximately three times greater
than that of old wastes. Landva & Clark (1990) also
observed that the value of C,mec increased with increase in
organic contents. Without taking account of the decom-
position, compression curves of municipal waste specimens
with different fill ages are depicted in Fig. 3. As the land-
fill ages, the amount of organic solids that would affect the
mechanical secondary compression mechanism decreases.
Compression due to biological decomposition
Park & Lee (1997) have proposed a mathematical model
that considers the compression process of refuse due to the
decomposition of organic solids. Biodegradable organic
solids convert into intermediate decomposition products
of a liquid form in the hydrolysis stage. The decomposition
process can be expressed in terms of first order kinetics as
follows:
– –
dS / dt=k –S(t) dS / dt=–k S(t) (3)
where S is biodegradable waste solid mass at time t, and
–
k is a first order degradation rate constant (t–1).
The main geotechnical concern is concentrated on the
solubilisation of biodegradable wastes. As biodegradable
solid mass (S tot–dec ) decomposes, it converts into a liquid

Table 1. Average values for the rate of mechanical secondary compression(C,mec )

Condition C,mec Aging level Reference

(strain/log time)

Actual landfill data

(decomposition effects not included) 0.024 Fresh Sowers (1973)
(eo = 4)

0.037 Fresh Rao et al. (1977)

0.026 Fresh Bjarngard (1989)

0.01 15 years old Jessberger & Kockel (1993)

Laboratory data (Large compression test) 0.005 8 years old Korea Geotech. Society (1994)
(approximately)

0.008 ~ 0.009 15 ~ 30 years old Gabr & Valero (1995)

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form (and eventually to gas) and thus it causes to reduce
the void space of landfills. The total volume reduction is
believed to depend upon the amount of biodegradable
solid mass (Stot–dec). Since biodegradable solids continue to
decompose for a very long period, the completion of bio-
logical compression may also take long time.
Since the solubilisation process of biodegradable solid
mass can be expressed in the first order kinetics, it can
be supposed that the compression process due to
the solubilisation can also be characterised by the
same kinetics. Then, the equation related to the
compression process due to the solubilisation can be
expressed as follows:
–dec(tbio)=tot–dec .e–ktbio, tbio=t – tc
where –dec, the amount of strain that additionally
occurs due to the decomposition of biodegradable solids,
not yet decomposed at time t, is a first order biological
strain rate constant (t–1), tot–dec stands for the total
amount of compression that will occur due to the decom-
position of biodegradable wastes and it will be dependent
upon the total amount of biodegradable organic solids
(Wardwell & Nelson 1981), and tbio represents the time
lapse from the starting point (tc) at which the compression
due to decomposition starts. For fresh MSW landfills, to is
assumed to be the time when the slope of settlement in
plots of strain versus log-time increases. For older MSW
landfills, however, it is not necessary to determine tc, since
the biological strain had already occurred when the settle-
ment monitoring started.
Thus, the strain at time tbio caused by biodegraded
waste solids can be obtained by:
(tbio)dec=tot–dec– –dec=tot–dec (1 – e–k tbio)
Settlement data of MSW landfills with various
fill ages
Settlement data obtained from seven MSW lysimeters
and landfills with various fill ages were analysed.
According to the magnitude of fill age for each landfill,
the seven MSW landfills can be divided into three
groups, in which ‘the fill age’ is defined as an elapsed time
period from the mid-point of fill starting and its comple-
tion. Sites A, B and C make up group one or ‘young’ group
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Long-term settlement behaviour of MSW landfills with various fill ages
since their fill ages are only a few years. Sites D and E
make up group two or ‘aged’ group since their fill ages
are approximately 10 years. Site F and G make up group
three or ‘old’ group since their fill ages are greater than
25 years.
Site A (young)
Gandolla et al. (1992) have carried out experiments using
three open topped cylindrical concrete lysimeters having
dimensions of 1 m internal diameter and 3 m height. The
lysimeters were filled with fresh shredded refuse mixed
with sludge that amounted 6.8% of the total filling refuse.
The filled refuse contained 55% water and 60% organic
contents based on the solids portion. The experiment
(4) began on 31/5/83 and measurements had been taken up to
28/11/89. The fill age is zero year. The settlement curve
shows a linear portion relation with a small slope in plots
of strain versus log-time and then it develops a much
greater slope at approximately 300 days after the measure-
ment started.
Site B (young)
Rao et al. (1977) constructed an experimental cell (3 m
square, height: 1.5 m), which was filled with fresh
household refuse and covered with approximately 0.5 m of
soil.
Site C (young)
The refuse fill was placed from 1976 and the majority of its
refuse was domestic. The settlement measurement was
performed for 2 years beginning in December of 1980.
Analysis was conducted for measured settlement curves of
three settlement plates (Cheyney 1983). The fill age is 2
years. Settlement curves have a considerable slope without
(5) showing any sections having small slopes.
Site D (aged)
The Nanji landfill site, located in Seoul, was approved as
a municipal dump site in March, 1978. Until the dumping
site closed in March of 1993, most of municipal refuse
collected in the Seoul area was open-dumped. The fill
age is estimated as 8 years. The refuse materials consist-
ed of excessive amounts of soil, and the decomposition
process had already progressed considerably. Two lysime-
ter tests (height: 1.9 m, diameter : 0.4 m) were performed
for samples collected from the Nanji landfill site
(Institute of Environmental Science and Engineering
Waste Management & Research 263
H. I. Park, S. R. Lee
1994). The average moisture content of the refuse was
28.8% and the average volatile solids content of the dry
refuse was 13%. The temperature was maintained at
37°C during the test period. The refuse settlement was
monitored for one year.
Site E (aged)
This site is located in southern Michigan. The refuse
fill has been in place since 1969. The settlement plates
were installed in 1985 and data were collected during a
1.2 year period. Analysis was performed for five sets of
data. The fill age is estimated as 8 years (Dodt et al.
1987).
Site F (old)
This refuse site is located in western Connecticut. The
old “town dump” was excavated and relocated to a new
site. This site was monitored for 5 years. The estimated
fill age is approximately 40 years (Keene 1977).
Site G (old)
The landfill, located in Massachusetts was approved
of as a municipal dump site in 1954. The fill age is
approximately 25 years. It was reported that the environ-
mental condition of the landfill was mature that the
biological degradation was almost complete (Stulgis et al.
1995).
(a)
Fig. 5. Settlement curve due to decomposition of Site C (fresh)
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Application of proposed model
An example of model application
Park & Lee (1997)’s model was applied to a settlement
curve of Site C (Fig. 5(a)) where the fill age was 2 years. It
can be observed that the settlement curve was in a long-
term settlement stage that induces considerable amounts of
settlement due to decomposition. Therefore, the
starting point (tc), at which the compression due to the
decomposition occurs, was assumed to be 274 days when
the monitoring started. As previously discussed, the
mechanical secondary component of settlement data could
supposedly be represented by the equation of
0.03•log[(t+t)/t], with the application of a factor of 0.03
for c,mec(refer to Table 1). The net biological strain sepa-
rated from the mechanical portion is presented in Fig. 5(b).
The proposed model was applied in order to predict the
amount of future biological strain. A plot of the logarith-
mic strain rate (log[dec/tbio]) versus time (tbio) has been
used in order to determine parameters used in the model.
With (tbio), and a linear regression analysis, we can evalu-
ate the slope and intercept as:
slope = 0.4323k (6)
Therefore, the model parameters, k and tot–dec can be
estimated from the data. The values of tot–dec and k were
(b)
 Long-term settlement behaviour of MSW landfills with various fill ages

Parameter values for various fill ages

Fig. 6. Prediction of settlement curve due to decomposition
estimated as 15.46% and 0.365 yr–1, respectively. The
prediction estimates that a considerable amount of strain,
15.46% of the landfill height, occurs due to the decompo-
sition and the biological strain would almost complete in
about 10 years (Fig. 6).
Park & Lee (1997)’s model was also applied to settlement
data of various sites. The estimated parameter values of
tot–dec and k were presented in Table 2.
In order to analyse the settlement data, the rate of
mechanical secondary compression (C,mec) was assumed
on the basis of the coefficient values shown in Table 2
in accordance with each fill age. For MSW landfills, the
amount of settlement due to decomposition would
be considerably greater than that of mechanical sec-
ondary compression. Therefore, such an assumption for
the value of C,mec would slightly affect the settlement
analysis results. It was found that values considerably
decreased with an increase in fill age of landfills. The tot–dec
values should be primarily related to the amount of
existing biodegradable wastes that could induce compres-
sion due to the decomposition. The biodegradable organic
solids decrease with an increase in fill age due to the
decomposition.

Table 2. Model parameter values

Stage of landfill Field site Fill age(yr) Settlement measurement  tot–dec

(%) k (yr–1)

L-1 20.86 0.365

Site A 0
L-3 21.56 0.402
(C,mec* =0.03)
Very fresh Site B 0 11.33 0.365

Site C 2 No. 22 25.7 0.245

No. 27 15.46 0.548
No. 33 17.05 0.259

Site D 8 L-1 7.2 2.37

L-2 6.1 1.75

Site E 8 S-1 0.6 1.497

Aged
(C,mec =0.005) S-2 0.7 0.584
S-3 0.6 1.351
S-4 0.16 0.584
S-5 0.6 2.19
S-6 4.2 1.351

Site F 20 #6 2.41 0.365

#9 1.65 0.621
Old
(C,mec =0.01) Site G 25 No. 4 1.15 11.68
No. 5 1.75 17.56
No. 6 1.22 14.97
No. 7 2.68 16.32

*C,mec (strain/log time) stands for the rate of mechanical secondary compression

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H. I. Park, S. R. Lee

Analysis of compression due to decomposition

It is often necessary to densify the landfill site in case of
redeveloping the area for building foundations or building
roads. It has been reported that the dynamic compaction
method would have the greatest benefit at sites where the
biological decomposition has been completed (Lukas
1986). Dynamic compaction, however, cannot stop the
biological decomposition that will result in loosening of
the refuse structure inducing further long-term settle-
ments. Therefore, it is very important to understand the
long-term settlement mechanism with time due to decom-
position and also the time when the compression due to
the decomposition is approximately completed. In Fig. 7,
the plot of log-time versus –dec , which is estimated by Fig. 8. Plot of log-time versus –dec with different fill ages
equation [4], is presented for Site A. The value of –dec is
estimated to be 1.4% if tbio is 10 years with 360 days of tc.
It was predicted that 92% of the biological compression
would be induced during the first 10 years and the com-
pression would be approximately completed in 15 years
after filling the waste.
The compression data for various fill ages are represent-
ed in Fig. 8. The amount of biological strain decreases
remarkably with increasing fill age of landfills from 0 year
(Site A) to 8 years (Site D) and slightly decreases from 8
years (Site D) to 20 years (Site F).
For fresh MSW landfills that have small fill ages, the
global biological compression behaviour with time is plot-
ted in Fig. 9. The values of tot–dec are estimated to be in
the range of 11~25%. It can also be observed that 90% of
Fig. 9. Analysis of fresh refuse landfill data
biological compression is developed within approximately
10 years and hence the biological compression of fresh
landfills will be completed in 10~20 years.
The relationship between the fill age and tot–dec is

Fig. 7. Plot of log-time versus –dec Fig. 10. Relationship between fill age and tot–dec

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Fig. 11. Effect of ‘k’ on settlement characteristics
presented in Fig. 10. The trend is very similar to the plot
of Fig. 9. The values of tot–dec range from approximately
17~32% for fill ages less than 2 years. However, the values
are substantially different for fill ages from 2 years to 10
years. If the fill age is more than 10 years, the value is less
than 10%.
Effect of decomposition condition
It has been reported that the rate of municipal waste
decomposition is considerably dependent upon the
decomposition condition in MSW landfills. Many
researches have been undertaken in order to reduce
the environmental stabilisation time by accelerating
the biological degradation condition by means of enzymes,
moisture, or buffer addition, leachate recirculation,
sludge addition, etc. (Yuen et al. 1995). Of course, the
addition of moisture can increase the mechanical
compression due to the weight of the water. However, as
shown in Fig. 4., it does not have an effect on the value of
C,mec. Nevertheless, the addition of moisture not only
enhances the biodegradation but also causes the
rearrangement of particles and hence induces the
more settlement.
Hoeks (1983) and Ham (1988) also reported that the
–
first order degradation rate constant (k) could be esti-
mated at 0.046, 0.028~0.139 and 0.462~1.386 yr–1
when the decomposition conditions were slowly,
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Long-term settlement behaviour of MSW landfills with various fill ages
moderately and rapidly decomposable, respectively.
Similar results have also been observed in biological com-
pression behaviour. The first order decomposition strain
rate constant (k) in Site C, in which the decomposition
condition is enhanced by regularly supplying water and
maintaining a high temperature, is twice those values for
other sites.
The effect of the ‘k’ value on the biological compres-
sion behaviour is presented in Fig. 11. The biological
compression curve was analysed for Site A (L-1), where
the value of k is 0.365 yr–1. It was assumed that the k val-
ues could be estimated as 0.2 and 0.6 yr–1 when the
decomposition conditions were more deficient and more
efficient for decomposition, respectively. If engineers
hope to apply a densification method such as dynamic
compaction when the amount of residual biological
compression is smaller than 5%, the possible times for the
application were estimated as 3.9, 6.3 and 11.5 years,
respectively. The stabilisation time should be consider-
ably dependent upon the value of k that is also depen-
dent on the level of decomposition enhancement.
Conclusion
The long-term settlement of MSW landfills is mainly
dependent upon the amount of biodegradable organic
solids and their decomposition condition. In this paper,
Park & Lee (1997)’s model was applied to the settlement
data of landfills having various fill ages. In the case of
young MSW landfills (Site A, B and C), the total amount
of biological strain was estimated at 11~25% and the bio-
logical compression of fresh landfills would be completed
within 10~20 years. The relationship between the fill age
and total amount of biological strain seems to be unique
for the behaviour of biological compression in fresh MSW
landfills. However, for fill ages of 2~10 years, the total
amount of biological strain is highly dependent on the fill
age. Long-term settlement due to decomposition is
seldom complete for fill ages that are greater than 20
years. The time duration for the stabilisation of biological
compression will be also dependent upon the decomposi-
tion condition.
Waste Management & Research 267
H. I. Park, S. R. Lee
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