VALUASI PERUSAHAAN

Pelatihan VCO, 21 -23 Juni 2016

Dit. Pengembangan Anak Usaha

PT Bahana Artha Ventura
Outline
 Pendahuluan
 Free Cash Flow
 Cost of Capital
 Continuing Value
 Kesimpulan

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Pendahuluan
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Value …...
 Value perusahaan ≠
 Laba “akuntansi”
 Kinerja masa lalu
 Value perusahaan ≈
 Dampak business strategy
 Proyeksi pertumbuhan
 Masa depan
 Nilai bersedia dibayar oleh Investor
 Face value ● book value ● market value
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Value come from…

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Metode Valuasi

Metode Valuasi

Asset Based Cash Flow Relative Contingent Claim

Liquidation Value Firm Models Patent

Undeveloped
Replacement Cost Equity Models
Reserves

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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
 Nilai perusahaan dilihat dari present value dari arus kas masa
yang akan datang pada rate tertentu yang mencerminkan
tingkat resiko dari arus kas tsb.
 Hal-2 yang harus diperhatikan dalam DCF :
 Bagaimana memproyeksikan arus kas masa depan
 Berapa discount rate yang sesuai
 Berapa panjang proyeksi arus kas harus dibuat

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Framework of DCF
Perusahaan diasumsikan
tumbuh konstan
Continuing Value

CF1 CF2 CF3 CF4 ……………………. CFn CFn+1 CFn+2 …….

∞
Panjang periode proyeksi

Value of Firm
or
Value of Equity

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Valuation - example
Free Cash Discount Factor
Tahun PV
Flow @ 11,5%

1 2017 85 0.8969 76
2 2018 110 0.8044 88
3 2019 121 0.7214 87
4 2020 133 0.6470 86
5 2021 146 0.5803 85
6 2022 161 0.5204 84
7 2023 177 0.4667 83
8 2024 195 0.4186 82
9 2025 214 0.3754 80
10 2026 235 0.3367 79
Continuing Value 4,583 0.3367 1,543
Value of operations 2,373
Value of debt (254)
Equity Value 2,119

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Value of Equity
After-tax operating earnings of company plus non-
Free Cash Flow cash charges less investment in working capital,
property, plant and equipment, and other assets.

Discounted value of expected future free cash flow

Value of operations at a discount rate which reflect the opportunity cost
to all the capital providers (weighted).

Present value of the cash flow to the debtholders

Value of debt discounted at a certain rate. In practice, only debt
outstanding on the valuation date must be valued.

Value of equity Value of operations less value of debt

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Free Cash Flow
Value of Firm or Equity

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Firm vs Equity Valuation

Debt
Firm method :
• Discounting expected future cash
flow available to equity & debt
holders

Firm
• Discounted at a rate of weighted
average cost of capital (WACC)
• Value of equity’s company obtained
by subtracting debt value to firm Equity method :
value • Discounting expected future
Equity cash flow available to equity
holders
• Discounted at a rate of cost of
equity

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Firm Valuation
Cash flow :
• After-tax cash flow from operating assets
available to share & debt holders
• Exclude any financing-related cash flow Perusahaan diasumsikan
(interest expense, repayment debt, dividends, tumbuh konstan
repurchase stock)
Continuing Value

CF1 CF2 CF3 CF4 ……………………. CFn CFn+1 CFn+2 …….

∞
Discount rate :
Value of Firm • Reflect the opportunity cost to all the capital
providers (weighted - WACC)
• Capital providers :
• Share holder → cost of equity
• Debt holder → borrowing rate

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Equity Valuation
Cash flow :
• Cash flow to equity holder only
• Include cash flow from operating assets and Perusahaan diasumsikan
debt financing-related cash flow tumbuh konstan
Continuing Value

CF1 CF2 CF3 CF4 ……………………. CFn CFn+1 CFn+2 …….

∞
Discount rate → Cost of Equity
Value of Equity

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NOPLAT (Net Operating Profit less Adjusted Taxes)

Total after-tax operating profit

NOPLAT generated by invested capital
available to all financial investor
+

Free cash flow Non-cash operating expenses Depreciation expenses

-
Include :
• Increase in working capital
Investment in Invested Capital • Capital expenditures
• Investment in goodwill
• Increase in net other assets

Free cash flow = NOPLAT - Net Investment

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Free Cash Flow (1)
 Accountant’s report
Accountant's Balance Sheet Y-1 Y-2 Accountant's Income Statement Y-2
Assets Revenues 1,000
Inventory 200 225 Operating Cost (700)
Net FA 300 350 Depreciation (20)
Equity Investments 15 25 Operating Profit 280
Total Assets 515 600
Interest (20)
Liabilities & Equity Non-operating income 4
Accounts payable 125 150 Earnings before taxes 264
Interest-bearing debt 225 200
Common stock 50 50 Taxes 25% (66)
R/E 115 200 Net Income 198
Total Liabilities & Equity 515 600

Accountant's Retained Earnings Y-2

R/E at beginning of year 115
Net Income 198
Dividends (113)
R/E at end of year 200

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Free Cash Flow (2)
 Invested Capital
Accountant's Balance Sheet Y-1 Y-2 Invested Capital Y-1 Y-2
Assets Assets
Inventory 200 225 Inventory 200 225
Net FA 300 350 Accounts payable (125) (150)
Equity Investments 15 25 Operating working capital 75 75
Total Assets 515 600
Net FA 300 350
Liabilities & Equity Invested Capital 375 425
Accounts payable 125 150
Interest-bearing debt 225 200 Interest-bearing debt 225 200
Common stock 50 50 Common stock 50 50
R/E 115 200 R/E 115 200
Total Liabilities & Equity 515 600 390 450

Equity Investments (non-operating assets) (15) (25)

Invested Capital 375 425

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Free Cash Flow (3)
 Re-organize accountant’s report

Accountant's Income Statement Y-2 Free Cash Flow from Operations Y-2
Revenues 1,000 EBIT 280
Operating Cost (700) Taxes on EBIT 25% (70)
Depreciation (20) NOPLAT 210
Operating Profit 280
Depreciation + 20
Interest (20) Gross Cash Flow 230
Non-operating income 4
Earnings before taxes 264 Increase in Working Capital -
Capital Expenditures 70
Taxes 25% (66) Investment in goodwill -
Net Income 198 Increase in net other assets -
Gross Investment 70

Free Cash Flow from Operations 160

Subtract investments in operating

items from gross cash flow

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Free Cash Flow (4)
 Investment in operating items
Increase in Working Capital Y-1 Y-2 Capital Expenditures Y-1 Y-2
Total C/R Assets 200 225 Net Fixed Assets 300 350
Less Non Operating Assets - - Increase Net Fixed Assets 50
Operating C/R Assets 200 225 Depreciation expense + 20
Capital Expenditures 70
Total Short-term Liabilities 125 150
Less Interest-bearing Liabilities - -
Short-term Liabilites 125 150 Investment in goodwill Y-2
Goodwill - book value - -
Working Capital 75 75 Increase goodwill - book value -
Increase in Working Capital - Goodwill amortization -
Investment in goodwill -

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Free Cash Flow (5)
 Check free cash flow

Free Cash Flow from Operations 160 Financial Flow Y-2

Decrease in debt + 25
Non-operating cash flow After-tax interest expense + 15
After-tax non-operating income 25% 3 Dividends + 113
Decrease (increase) in non-operating assets (10) Share repurchase + -
Non-operating cash flow (7) Total financial flow 153

Total cash flow before financing 153

check

Include non-operating income/expenses and

investment in non-operating assets

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Cost of Capital
Cost of capital
 Must be consistent with the overall valuation approach → firm
method or equity method

 Comprise cost of all sources of capital

 Be computed after corporate tax, since the free cash-flow is stated

after tax

 Include the company’s systematic risk

 Use market value for each financing element

 Be subject to change across the forecast period (change in inflation,

systematic risk, or capital structure)

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WACC (weighted average cost of capital)

Source of Target Cost of Tax After-tax Weighted

capital weight capital cost average
Debt 31.5% 6.8% 37.6% 4.2% 1.3%
Equity 68.5% 10.4% 10.4% 7.1%
WACC 8.5%

Cost of equity ks = rf + (rm x beta)

Ks : cost of equity
Rf : Risk-free rate of return
Rm : Risk premium
Beta : Systematic risk of equity

Cost of debt :
• Calculated as a after-tax cost → tax shield from
interest expense

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Continuing Value
Continuing Value
Continuing Value

CF1 CF2 CF3 CF4 ……………………. CFn CFn+1 CFn+2 …….

∞
Periode proyeksi

Continuing value or terminal value :

• Future value pada tahun ke-n dari serangkaian (∞) free
cash fow setelah masa proyeksi
• Perusahaan diasumsikan exist (going concern)
• Tidak berlaku untuk asumsi perusahaan yang akan
dilikuidasi atau sejenisnya
• Cara perhitungannya harus hati-hati karena memiliki
porsi yang cukup besar dari total value

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Portion of CV
Free Cash Discount Factor
Tahun PV
Flow @ 11,5%
140%
1 2017 85 0.8969 76 Period cash flow (8 yr)
2 2018 110 0.8044 88 120% continuing value
3 2019 121 0.7214 87
100%
4 2020 133 0.6470 86
5 2021 146 0.5803 85 80%
6 2022 161 0.5204 84 830
60%
7 2023 177 0.4667 83
8 2024 195 0.4186 82 40%
9 2025 214 0.3754 80
20%
10 2026 235 0.3367 79
Continuing Value 4,583 0.3367 1,543 65% 0%
Tobacco Sporting Skin care High tech
Value of operations 2,373 -20% goods
Value of debt (254)
Equity Value 2,119 -40%

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Metode CV
 Long explicit forecast
 Memperpanjang periode proyeksi sehingga meniadakan continuing
value

 Growing free cash flow perpetuity

FCFn+1 FCFn+1 : normalized free cash flow 1 th setelah
Continuing value = masa proyeksi
WACC - g g : growth rate setelah masa proyeksi

 Value driver formula

NOPLATn+1 : normalized NOPLAT, 1 th setelah
NOPLATn+1 ( 1 - g/r)
Continuing value = masa proyeksi
WACC - g r : expected rate of return terhadap
net new investment
( NOPLATn+2 - NOPLATn+1 )
r=
Net new investmentn

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Kesimpulan
Frame work of valuation
 DCF – valuation of firm

Analisa past Komponen Proyeksi struktur Normalized Present value dari

performance FCF kapital FCF FCF & CV

Proyeksi Free cash Continuing

WACC Equity Value
Keuangan flow Value

Strategi bisnis & Risk-free rate & Evaluasi periode

Evaluasi hasil
assumptions premium proyeksi

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Midyear factor
CF1 CF2

1
Discount factor, PV =
(1 + WACC)n

CF1 CF2

1
Discount factor, PV =
(1 + WACC)(n - 0.5)

Midyear factor

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Degree of Complexity

Listed Company

• Track Record
• Reliable data gathering
Private Company • Comparable company

Start-up Company More complicated analysis

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EBITA for NOPLAT
Why use EBITA and not EBITDA? When a company purchases a physical asset such as
equipment, it capitalizes the asset on the balance sheet and depreciates the asset over
its lifetime. Since the asset loses economic value over time, depreciation must be
included as an operating expense when determining NOPLAT.

Why use EBITA and not EBIT? After all, the same argument could be made for the
amortization of acquired intangibles: They, too, have fixed lives and lose value over time.
But the accounting for intangibles differs from the accounting for physical assets. Unlike
capital expenditures, organic investment in intangibles such as brands are expensed and
not capitalized. Thus, when the acquired intangible loses value and is replaced through
further investment, the reinvestment is expensed, and the company is penalized twice:
once through amortization and a second time through reinvestment. Using EBITA avoids
double-counting amortization expense in this way.

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