Professional Documents
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~ exchange between
Buffett and Ken Chance
Story five
THE OLD AND WISE: Mungerism
Story six
DECEMBER 13, 1995
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The Not So Transparent Bonds
Story eight
ITC Ltd’s investors have been worried this year
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Insider trading of this week
Eiichi Hagiwara, who owns a Tokyo-based designer of water treatment equipment, says
Indeed, inflation is still running rampant in Turkey: core consumer prices rose at a rate of 72.89%
higher borrowing costs could eat into the already razor-thin margins at small in February over the same month in 2023, while annual inflation was last recorded at nearly 70%
companies. in February, the highest in 15 months.
For him, that could take bigger projects off the table, as those require loans to cover Turkey has been suffering from chronic inflation due to years of Erdoğan's unorthodox policies.
materials and other costs up front, he said. Having to pay interest ultimately means
lower profit margins.
However, Karahan (Governor of central bank) has said that getting inflation under control is his
"There's no work with big margins now," Hagiwara said. "If I don't lower prices I can't top priority, vowing to increase rates further if inflation surges.
get the work." Generally he eschews lending, preferring to keep cash reserves for Over that turkiye enters into the election, so how this situation unfolds, will be a key
operational costs. He also relies on soft skills, such as taking customers out to cement situation to watch out for.
relationships.
FALLING LIRA
SILVER LINING
The spurred a credit boom – banks’ net loans more than doubled from 2020 to 2022 – boosting
Some business owners, especially those reliant on imports, hope interest rates could the economy ahead of May’s parliamentary and presidential votes, but also intensified a long-
finally put a floor under the weak yen. The currency's chronic sell-off has driven up the term slump in the Turkish lira. It has lost 93 percent of its value versus the dollar over the past
cost of food and fuel. decade.
Around 60% of Japanese firms expect rates to rise to 0.25% by the end of the year, a S&P Global Ratings forecasts Turkey’s real GDP growth will more than halve year-on-
Reuters survey showed on Thursday. Many said they are looking to front-load spending
year to 2.3 percent in 2023, and predicts a “sharp currency depreciation”, with the lira
before borrowing costs rise
($1 = 151.0600 yen) falling to 40 to the dollar in 2024.
INFLATION PROJECTIONS
Global economic prospects hang on a delicate balance, largely hinging on the path of inflation.
While inflation looks to be easing, there remains the risk of a second wave of price pressures driven by geopolitical
conflicts and supply disruptions in the Red Sea. Adding to this, a stronger than expected labor market could drive
consumer demand, pushing up higher prices.
In 2024, global inflation is projected to decline to 5.8%, down from a 6.8% estimated annual average in 2023. Tighter
monetary policy and falling energy prices are forecast to dampen price pressures alongside a cooling labor market.
Venezuela, with the largest oil reserves globally, is projected to see inflation reach 230%—the highest overall. Across
the last decade, the country has faced hyperinflation, reaching a stunning 10 million percent in 2019. Since U.S.
sanctions were lifted last year, inflation has fallen dramatically due to sharp cuts in government spending and
increasing dollarization of the economy, which is bolstering the bolivar.
In America, slower economic growth coupled with a softening labor market could ease inflation, which is forecast
to reach 2.6% in 2024. While the Federal Reserve has signaled that the worst is over, unexpected momentum across
the economy could cloud the outcome. As of November 2023, $290 billion in excess savings were held across
American households, which may continue to spur consumer demand.
Over in Europe, inflation is anticipated to average 3.3% across advanced economies. Today, sinking natural gas
prices and low GDP growth are keeping inflation expectations at bay.
China, the world’s second-largest economy, is contending with falling prices due to property market trouble, which
drives about a third of the country’s economic growth. Amid sluggish economic activity, a manufacturing slowdown,
and low consumer confidence, inflation is forecast to reach 1.7%.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services, in a note, said it believes that the new EV policy aims to promote the development of the EV ecosystem and local
manufacturing in India, while reasonably protecting the Indian OEMs largely operating below the $35,000 price point. “Nevertheless, there
could be some risk to a few of the upcoming models of M&M and Tata Motors at the upper end of the SUV market. It could also potentially impact
sales of luxury vehicles (German brands) with an increased entry of mid-to-premium EVs at competitive pricing (potentially impacting Landmark
Cars - a Mercedes dealership)," said the brokerage firm.
However, Kotak Institutional Equities believes there will be negligible impact on the domestic passenger vehicle market due to EV manufacturing
policy in the near term owing to higher price points of the imported electric vehicles, where the market size is limited in India and cap on imports
on an annual basis.
The brokerage firm believes the entry of Tesla into the Indian market will lead to an increase in competitive intensity and the domestic players will
have to step up their play in the electric vehicle segment.
PROXY PLAY
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE MAMMOTH However, the new EV policy is expected
to benefit domestic auto component
This move is positioning India as a destination open for business while managing to not alienate the domestic industry
players who invest in advanced
technologies that are currently not
While Tesla was negotiating for the duty reduction to be available for an affordable $25,000 EV that it is planning to develop for markets like
manufactured in India. It can help the
India, it will now likely to bring its Model 3, which sells at close to $40,000 globally, to India and work towards localizing its operations to kick
auto component sector absorb high-end
start its India entry plans.The move seems primed for Tesla's entry to India. The Model 3 and Model Y are priced above $35,000 and will finally
technology faster, as 50% localization is
give the company access to the Indian market, in a culmination of its now years-long efforts to lobby for lower duties.
needed in five years.
“Vinfast, however, will have to identify the right model to bring to India as it has
Emkay Global believes Motherson Sumi
models in its global portfolio that are below the $35,000 price point or then in the
Wiring, which supplies to most of the PV
luxury range, which might not be viable for a dealer distribution network in India”.
OEMs, would be a better proxy play on
the PV story, instead of taking market
This scheme will not be applicable to existing OEMs like Hyundai, Kia, BYD or
share risks among OEMs, with bottom-
MG Motor India, or European OEMs Mercedes Benz and BMW, unless they make
up superior growth, new client additions
a fresh investment of at least $500 million in the next three years, in assembly
such as Tata PVs, and margin triggers.
operations, or setting up a battery or cell manufacturing facility or in establishing
charging infrastructure.
According to InCred Equities, the auto
Detailed guidelines for the scheme are yet to be released. The company applying component companies already supplying
to be eligible under the scheme will also have to meet a minimum global to EV vehicle makers globally will also
turnover requirement. be key beneficiaries. These include
Samvardhana Motherson International
A spokesperson for Mahindra & Mahindra said: "The recently announced EV policy for new entrants reinforces the Make in India momentum, (SAMIL), Bharat Forge and Endurance
with requirements of bank guarantees, minimum investment commitment and local value addition. This will help accelerate the EV ecosystem in Technologies.
India. Our Born Electric SUVs are on track to be launched in Jan 2025 with cutting-edge technology. Our products will speak for themselves."
On the new EV passenger vehicle manufacturing scheme, Vinod Aggarwal, president, SIAM said: “A holistic view has been taken by the SAMIL’s penetration into premium
Government in best interest of the country. The Indian Automobile Industry and members of SIAM will adapt to this new policy and remain car manufacturers globally and new
order wins in the EV space can help if
committed to bring new, innovative & aspirational products and work towards developing a robust EV Eco system in India. " any global manufacturer sets up a
plant in India and needs to localize
production..
THE POLICY
Minimum Investment required: Rs 4150 Cr (∼USD 500 Mn). No limit on maximum Investment
Timeline for manufacturing: 3 years for setting up manufacturing facilities in India, and to start commercial production of e- vehicles, and reach 50% domestic value addition (DVA)
within 5 years at the maximum.
Domestic value addition (DVA) during manufacturing: A localization level of 25% by the 3rd year and 50% by the 5th year will have to be achieved. The customs duty of 15% (as
applicable to CKD units) would be applicable on vehicle of minimum CIF value of USD 35,000 and above for a total period of 5 years subject to the manufacturer setting up manufacturing
facilities in India within a 3-year period.
The duty foregone on the total number of EV allowed for import would be limited to the investment made or ₹6484 Cr (equal to incentive under PLI scheme) whichever is lower. A
maximum of 40,000 EVs at the rate of not more than 8,000 per year would be permissible if the investment is of USD 800 Mn or more. The carryover of unutilized annual import limits
would be permitted. The Investment commitment made by the company will have to be backed up by a bank guarantee in lieu of the custom duty forgone The Bank guarantee will be
invoked in case of non-achievement of DVA and minimum investment criteria defined under the scheme guidelines.
MOVING FORCES THE CHINESE INSATIETY
Like any other economic commodity
the price of this yellow metal is The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) regained the crown for the largest single
determined by the demand and supply gold buyer; as it reported a total rise of 225t in its gold reserves over the year.
principle of economics. This makes 2023 the country’s highest single year of reported additions since
at least 1977.2
RISING INTEREST RATES As a result, PBoC gold reserves now stand at 2,235t, although this still
The first thing to understand is that real represents only 4% of China’s vast international reserves.
interest rates [Nominal interest rates-inflation]
are the biggest enemy of gold prices hence the It makes a lot of sense, buying gold if someone is from china, as they are
rule of thumb is when rate rises, gold falls. faced with a battered real estate, and the benchmark stock index which
This is due to higher yields on fixed-income
despite stock manipulation by the Chinese governemtn is continuing the one
assets like bonds, diminishing the appeal of
non-yielding metals. way fall for now three years in row. So the only safe bet they could place
But then why the global demand of gold is their trust is in this yellow shiny metal.
more at 1 percent of real rate in US, then it
was at negative 1 percent? They are to put in a single word- ‘Buying out of fear’.
INFLATION
Rising rates don’t guarantee falling gold
GEOPOLITICS The slow steady rise of gold throughout found many investors sleeping. ETF’s are seling, Institutional investors are selling
Buyer of gold, buys it in fear. Yes, most of the gold, then who is buying? Let’s find out.
times the buyer of the gold forms his long
position to hedge somekind of fear, that can
be currency devaluation or dollar
appreciation, etc.
Or in case of condition like war, the war of THE LOVE-HATE RELATIONSHIP WITH GOLD
Ukraine and Russia pushed even further the For the last two years, Central banks have bought 30 percent of global mined gold
demand of gold.
ETFs are selling, institutional investors are selling, but the gold is breaching its all time highs due to huge demand from central banks,
Here is the reply of Polish central bank when we say huge, we mean the buying of central bank is 4X of what they are selling. Central bank demand, maintained its momentum
president, Adam Glapińsk, when asked about in Q4 as a further 229t was added to global official gold reserves. This lifted annual (net) demand to 1,037t, just short of the record set
aggressive buying of gold – in 2022 of 1,082t. Global official sector gold reserves are now estimated to total 36,700t.
“Yes, in order to further increase
Poland’s financial security, we will Two successive years of over 1,000t of buying is testament to the recent strength in central bank demand for gold. Central banks have
continue the current policy, we will been consistent net buyers on an annual basis since 2010, accumulating over 7,800t in that time, of which more than a quarter was
certainly strive to increase our gold
bought in the last two years. Findings from our 2022 and 2023 Central Bank Gold Survey show that gold’s performance during times
resources. However, the scale and
pace of purchases will depend, among of crisis and its role as a long term store of value are key reasons for central banks to hold gold.
others on the dynamics of changes in
official reserve assets and current As well as extending the buying trend to 14 consecutive years, the breadth of reported buying among central banks remained healthy in
market conditions. I initially assume that 2023. The vast majority of purchases continued to come from emerging market central banks, many of whom have been regular buyers
I will propose to buy another 100 tons in
2022.”
in recent years.
A country in just midst of war, this frenzy to The National Bank of Poland was the second largest buyer in 2023. Between April and November, the central bank bought 130t of gold,
buy gold seems a pragmatic decision. increasing its gold holdings by 57%, to 359t. As with the PBoC, this was the highest level of annual buying from the NBP on record3
Whereas China is completely different story. and exceeded the previously stated target of 100t.4 In October, NBP President, Adam Glapiński, indicated that he would like to see
gold accounting for 20% of Poland’s international reserves (gold’s current share is 12%).
DE-DOLLARIZATION Buying beyond these two banks was relatively modest by comparison, but no less important. The Monetary Authority of Singapore was
The US dollar has been the de-facto world once again the sole developed market buyer, adding a further 77t to its gold reserves, lifting them to 230t. The Central Bank of Libya
reserve currency for more than half a century, added to its gold reserves for the first time since 1998/9, buying 30t in June; its gold reserves now total 147t. The Czech National Bank’s
with no questions asked about the greenback’s purchase of 19t of gold was its highest annual addition on record back to 1993; the Czech Republic’s gold reserves now stand at 31t.
exceptionalism. However, the Ukraine war
potentially begets an inflection point wherein The Reserve Bank of India and the Central Bank of Iraq were among the other banks that added a tonne or more to their reserves. The
nations are endeavoring for a multipolar European Central Bank also saw its gold reserves rise by almost 2t in January, but this was a transfer of gold from Croatia as the country
world. joined the eurozone.
The global reserve currency is characterised
by steady supply, liquidity, and absence of Reported gross purchases were so strong that they comfortably outweighed higher gross sales in 2023. The National Bank of Kazakhstan
capital controls. However, the freezing of (47t, as of November) and the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (25t) were the two largest sellers of gold. Both banks buy gold domestically
Russia’s central bank assets by the US – as both nations are significant gold producers – and actively manage a portion of their substantial official gold reserves. Therefore the
political regime has dented the credentials of swings between buying and selling we have seen in recent years are not wholly surprising. In statements to Bloomberg in July, the
the greenback as a reserve currency. National Bank of Kazakhstan was clear that its aim is to cut gold’s share of its international reserves to 50-55% (from 58% in November,
the latest data available).
Amid the varied possibilities, most reckon
that gold is a certain beneficiary. Which by The Central Bank of Bolivia reported that its gold holdings fell by 18t between May and August (latest data available). This followed
lookin at 2023 outperformance seems true,
the passing of a bill in May, which allowed for the monetisation of official gold reserves. This 43% decline in official gold reserves
but for how long can it continue?
since end-April leaves gold holdings totalling just over 24 tonnes. According to reports, the central bank must keep a minimum of 22
tonnes of gold reserves.
The Central Bank of Turkey was also a net seller in 2023 – but only just. Having sold 159t between March and May to help satisfy very
strong domestic demand during a temporary partial ban on gold bullion imports,10 official gold reserves finished the year just 2t lower
than at the end of 2022. A resumption in strategic buying since May has helped official gold reserves recover to 540t.
Looking ahead into 2024, making predictions for this sector is as challenging as ever. But the buying trend that has been in place since
2010 shows little sign of abating, even if a third consecutive year of ~1,000t net purchases may be unlikely. This reinforces our belief
that global central banks will remain net buyers again this year. For more on this, please see the Outlook section.
In 2023, gold displayеd a rеmarkablе 13% yеar-to-datе
incrеasе, rеaching a rеcord high of Rs. 64,460 pеr 10 gm.
THE TECHNICALS
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Chapter 3 : Mungerism
-
KEYS TO SUCCESS
We try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric. It is remarkable how much long-
CHARLIE MUNGER term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.
Gaining a competitive advantage in the investing business is certainly challenging. To tackle this problem, an analyst must first clearly understand what the market cares about
and then decipher the drivers of shareholder wealth. Further, only to the extent that these value drivers are different from, or tangential
to, the day-to-day investment chatter can they be considered of incremental informational or analytical value.
This report seeks to outline a solution to this investing challenge. We have attempted to do this in a few steps. First, we use basic
statistical tools to understand the elements that best explain valuation in a particular industry. We then consider what our empirical
evidence says about stock market behavior. Finally, we outline the facets of value that should be the focus of managers and investors
alike.
Our conclusion also serves as our title: translated into English, it simply means “the more things change, the more they stay the same.”
That is, companies can partake in M&A, write-offs, restructuring programs, strategic repositionings, and accounting chicanery, but at
the end of the day what matters is a company’s ability to generate satisfactory cash returns on the capital it employs. Doing so consistently in the face of a rapidly changing
busi- ness world requires hard work, foresight, and discipline.
MESSAGE TO ANALYSTS
tion of goodwill. NOPAT is the numerator for an
ROIC calculation.
गोपनीयता
BEFORE 2017, the Companies Act allowed The first indication is the sharp rise in its
companies to donate to political parties, but within revenues, the timing of which overlaps with
the launch of the electoral bonds scheme on 1
limits. Companies could donate up to 7.5% of the
March 2018. Madanlal’s revenues increased
three-year average of their net profit. Effectively, from ₹20 crore in 2016-17 to ₹150 crore in
companies needed to be cumulatively profitable 2018-19 and to ₹297 crore in 2019-20, before
over three years to be able to donate. They also had crashing to ₹3 crore in 2021-22. In the annual
to specify the names of parties to which they had donated. The reports, the big revenue jumps are recognized as “other operating
electoral bonds scheme did away with both profitability and income” and no further explanation is provided. Interestingly, even
disclosure requirements. as revenues soared, profits barely budged. According to
Madanlal’s 2019-20 annual report, it is “primarily engaged in
It brought companies like Madanlal into play. Between 2016-17 trading in stainless steel and allied products”.
and 2019-20, the firm posted a cumulative net loss of ₹2.62 crore.
Under the old regime, Madanlal could not have donated to a Since the electoral bonds were purchased in May 2019, in the old
disclosure regime, they would have found a mention in the
political party. But the electoral bonds scheme allows it to donate company’s 2019-20 statements. But the 2019-20 annual report of
using its own funds, and to donate on behalf of others, without Madanlal is silent on purchases of electoral bonds, as there was no
limits, which it possibly did. legal requirement to do so by that time.
Then comes ITC’s paperboards, paper & packaging segment, which In calendar year 2023, the portfolio
continues to see dismal numbers. The segment’s Ebit has dropped delivered a $9.5 billion Ebitda (up
by 41% in 9MFY24, weighed by dull demand in domestic markets, 34.4% year-on-year), while its net debt
has reduced by 4% from March 2023 to
low-priced Chinese supplies in the global market, and elevated input
September 2023 (balance sheet figures
costs. But there could be light at the end of the tunnel. “We believe are only declared half yearly).
revenue and margin (of paper business) should bottom out in a
couple of quarters, and performance sho-uld improve in H2FY25,”
said Antique Stock Broking report on 15 March.
Even the company’s agri business stays constrained by trade curbs imp-osed on commodities such as wheat and rice.
But the company’s hotels business is on a relatively stronger footing. ITC’s hotels business has seen better traction
on average room rates and occupancy levels. The company plans to demerge its hotels business and list it separately.
It has also recei-ved approval from the stock exchanges for this.
Meanwhile, the drop in ITC’s stock price has meant that valuations have cooled off. ITC shares trade at over 23 times
their FY25 estimated earnings, according to Bloomberg. This is cheaper than most of its FMCG peers. But whether
this attracts increased investor attention will depend on the earnings growth trends in its key business segments.
WEEK 12
18-24 March, 2024
INSIDER
TRADING
BUY?
Sentiment Measures from External Data
SELL?
PLEDGE?