The Financial Determinants of

Suicide: A Panel Data Analysis of 29

Countries
By
Michael Mullins

Dissertation Proposal

Module Supervisor: Ruben Ruf

Trinity Business School

TRINITY COLLEGE
UNIVERSITY OF DUBLIN

March 2024
Declaration

I declare that this work has not been submitted as an exercise for a degree at this or any other

university and it is entirely my own work.

I have read and I understand the plagiarism provisions in the General Regulations of the

University Calendar for the current year, found at http://www.tcd.ie/calendar.

Generative AI Declaration
Please choose A or B with regards to your use of ChatGPT & other generative AI tools
in this project:
A. Nothing to declare. I did not use ChatGPT or any other generative AI
software. (see note)
B. I used ChatGPT or other generative AI software (see note)
NOTE:
• If you answer A and the corrector/supervisor, finds evidence that you have indeed
used ChatGPT, this behaviour will be considered as unethical and you will be
penalized accordingly with reference to the TCD policy on plagiarism.
• If you answer B, please clearly explain for which chapters or parts of your
dissertation you used ChatGPT and how it helped you to improve your learning
process within ethical guidelines. You may include your answer – 300 to 600
words approx.- in the appendix.

Signed: ID No: 19337265e

Date: 20/03/2024

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Table of Contents
1 Aims and Objectives ................................................................................................... 3
1.1 Research Aim ....................................................................................................................... 3
1.2 Research Objectives ............................................................................................................. 3
1.3 Research Questions .............................................................................................................. 4
1.4 Research Hypotheses............................................................................................................ 4
2 Rationale and Contribution ........................................................................................ 5
2.1 Description of Topic and Rationale ...................................................................................... 5
2.2 Contribution of Topic ........................................................................................................... 5
2.3 Literature Review ................................................................................................................. 6
2.4 Contribution to Financial and Public Policy ....................................................................... 9
3 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 9
3.1 Research Methodology ......................................................................................................... 9
3.2 Data Collection .................................................................................................................. 10
3.3 Proposed Subject Population and Sample.......................................................................... 10
3.4 Data Analysis Techniques .................................................................................................. 10
3.5 Resources, Confidentiality & Ethics Issues ........................................................................ 10
3.6 Plan for Project Completion .............................................................................................. 11
4. References ................................................................................................................... 12

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1 Aims and Objectives
1.1 Research Aim
The aim of this study is to empirically determine the relationship between various financial
factors and suicide rates. Globally, it is estimated that 703,000 people commit suicide every
year (WHO, 2023). Suicide is a global issue with far-reaching consequences for individuals,
policymakers and countries, alike. Recognising the complexity of mental health issues and the
importance of effective preventative policy measures, this research seeks to elucidate the
financial risk factors that may influence suicide rates across a diverse sample of countries.

1.2 Research Objectives

Objective 1: To Identify and Analyse the Impact of Key Financial Factors on Suicide Rates
This objective focuses on examining the influence of specific financial variables
(unemployment rates, household debt, health spending, and share prices) on suicide rates
across 29 countries. The aim is to determine the extent to which these financial factors
contribute to the variance in suicide rates, offering insights into potential economic triggers of
suicide. This analysis will enhance the understanding of the financial dimensions of mental
health crises and inform policy discussions on suicide prevention.

Objective 2: To Evaluate the Role of Economic Policies in Modulating Suicide Rates

Building on the analysis of financial determinants, this objective seeks to explore the
relationship between existing economic policies and suicide rates. By assessing the
effectiveness of unemployment benefits, debt relief programmes, and health expenditure in
mitigating suicide risks, this research aims to provide evidence-based recommendations for
policy adjustments. This objective targets the gap between economic policy design and mental
health outcomes, advocating for integrated approaches to suicide prevention.

Objective 3: To Propose Evidence-Based Economic Interventions for Suicide Prevention

Leveraging the insights gained from the empirical analysis, the final objective is to propose
specific economic interventions that could effectively reduce suicide rates. This involves
identifying potential policy levers, such as financial support mechanisms, debt counselling
services, and economic resilience-building programmes, that can address the financial
determinants of suicide. By translating research findings into practical policy
recommendations, this study aims to contribute to global efforts in reducing the prevalence of
suicide.

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1.3 Research Questions
How do key financial factors, specifically unemployment rates, household debt, health
expenditure, and stock market performance, influence suicide rates across diverse economic
contexts?
This question aims to unravel the direct impact of these financial variables on suicide rates. It
seeks to identify which financial stressors hold the most significant correlation with suicide
incidences, providing a macro-level understanding of economic influences on mental health
crises.

What role do economic policies play in modulating the impact of financial stressors on suicide
rates?
Through this question, the research will explore the interface between economic policy
interventions (e.g., unemployment benefits, debt relief programmes, health funding) and their
efficacy in mitigating suicide risks. It intends to assess the preventive capacity of economic
policies and identify gaps where policy adjustments could offer stronger support for suicide
prevention.

What evidence-based economic interventions can be proposed to effectively mitigate the risk
of suicide associated with financial determinants?
The final question focuses on translating the research findings into actionable policy
recommendations. It aims to outline specific economic interventions that could address the
identified financial risk factors, proposing a framework for integrating economic and mental
health strategies to reduce suicide rates effectively.

1.4 Research Hypotheses

The literature review establishes the research and general consensus on financial factors and
their impact on suicide rates. The following hypotheses have been developed from this body
of literature. This study sets out to validate these hypotheses.

H1: Higher levels of unemployment results in higher suicide rates

H2: Higher levels of household debt cause higher suicide rates
H3: Increased health spending reduces suicide rates
H4: Fluctuations in stock prices corelate with changes in suicide rates

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2 Rationale and Contribution
2.1 Description of Topic and Rationale
Globally, an estimated 703,000 individuals commit suicide on an annual basis (WHO, 2023).
The societal costs of suicide are considerable, necessitating sustained policy interventions
aimed at mitigating its socio-economic impact (CDC, 2022). Given the substantial economic
consequences, the development and implementation of efficacious measures to curtail this
burden are imperative (Okada & Samreth, 2013). The WHO acknowledges the gravity of the
global suicide situation, yet underscores its preventability (Okada & Samreth, 2013). Suicide
prevention has been prioritised within the WHO Sustainable Development Goals, with the
Mental Health Action Plan 2013-2030 setting forth an ambitious target for member states to
achieve a one-third reduction in suicide rates by the year 2030 (WHO, 2021). Fulfilling this
objective requires an in-depth understanding of the determinants of suicide, thereby facilitating
the crafting of precise policy strategies to effectively address and pre-empt the issue.

The rationale for investigating financial factors as determinants of suicide stems from the
growing body of evidence suggesting a strong linkage between economic conditions and
mental health outcomes, including suicide. Financial stressors such as unemployment, debt,
insufficient health expenditure, and economic downturns manifest not only as economic
challenges but also as significant sources of psychological distress. These stressors can
exacerbate feelings of psychological distress, potentially leading to suicide.

2.2 Contribution of Topic

The magnitude of the economic costs of suicide to society are substantial (Rockett, et al., 2023).
This study addresses the critical intersection of financial determinants and suicide rates by
integrating key variables within a unified analytical framework. By employing a random-
effects model to analyse the most recent data across 29 countries, it offers a novel perspective
on how these economic factors collectively impact suicide rates. This approach not only
enriches the existing literature by providing a comprehensive view of financial stressors but
also leverages contemporary data to reflect the current economic climate's influence on global
suicide trends.

The research's methodological rigor and use of up-to-date data enable the identification of
emergent patterns and the evaluation of economic policies’ roles in suicide prevention. The
findings promise to inform evidence-based policy recommendations, aiming to mitigate the

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financial precursors of suicide. This study's unique contribution lies in its holistic analysis and
potential to guide targeted interventions, enhancing the efficacy of suicide prevention strategies
on a global scale.

2.3 Literature Review

The emergence of suicide as a serious problem for many countries in recent years has spurred
researchers to investigate the factors driving rates across the globe (Okada & Samreth, 2013).
The correlation between contextual elements (such as societal, economic and cultural factors)
and suicide rates has been explored in the literature using a vast array of variables (Milner, et
al., 2012). A large body of literature focuses on suicide factors from a psychological and
sociological viewpoint (Altinanahtar & Halicioglu, 2009). Mann et al. (2005) highlight the
consensus of medical professions that the driving factors for suicide is depression and other
psychiatric disorders. In a pivotal piece of research, social structures and their relationships
with suicide rates are explored unveiling clear and quantifiable relationships (Durkheim, 1897).
Hamermesh and Soss (1974) are the first to explore suicide from an economic standpoint. This
research aims to focus on the financial determinants of suicide with unemployment, household
debt, health spending and share prices at the centre of the analysis.

The body of literature largely suggests a correlation between rising unemployment rates and
escalating suicide rates. A seminal study analysing data from 2.04 million individuals, aged 18
to 64, based on the 1991 New Zealand census, found a twofold to threefold increase in the risk
of suicide among the unemployed (Blakely, et al., 2003). The robustness of these findings is
underscored by the use of age-adjusted odds ratios and logistic regression models, further
strengthened by sensitivity analyses to address potential linkage bias. Similarly, panel data has
been instrumental in examining this relationship, as demonstrated in research analysing 24
OECD countries between 1980 and 2003. This study revealed that unemployment correlates
with higher suicide rates in high-income countries, but the opposite was observed in low-
income countries, as identified through fixed effects regression (Noh, 2009). Additional
evidence from the University of California corroborates the unemployment-suicide link
(Kposowa, 2001). Employing Cox regression models, Kposowa's findings indicate a
significant, enduring relationship, particularly pronounced among women – a novel revelation
contradicting earlier studies that emphasised male susceptibility. The examination of
unemployment rates during economic crises and the mitigating role of unemployment
protections further informs this discussion. Research focused on the Great Recession period

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found that more comprehensive unemployment benefits tempered the rise in suicide rates
during economic downturns. The analysis covered the period from 1960 to 2012, utilising fixed
effects regression to validate these observations (Norström & Grönqvist, 2015). This body of
work collectively fuels the development of a random effects model, seeking to corroborate
these findings through an alternative analytical approach.

The literature to-date suggests that debt is a risk factor for suicide. Three pivotal studies, with
differing methodologies, examine the association. An analysis of coroners’ reports on suicides
(Graham & Burvill, 1992; Yip, et al., 2007), investigating data from suicide-attempt victims in
psychiatric hospitals (Hatcher, 1994) and a study through national surveys of psychiatric
morbidity on debt and suicidal ideation (Hintikka, et al., 1998). Each study provides evidence
supporting the claim that debt is linked to suicide. More recently, studies have supported the
link between debt and suicide rates. In the 2007 National Survey of Psychiatric Morbidity of
England, a sample of 7,461 adults underwent examination via a stratified multi-stage random
probability sampling method. The findings revealed debt as a significant determinant of
suicidal ideation, with this association heightened among individuals experiencing
unemployment (Meltzer, et al., 2011). Furthermore, analysis utilising data from the American
National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, employing logistic
regression, identified a robust correlation between debt and suicide, surpassing other notable
determinants such as gender and lifestyle behaviours (Naranjo, et al., 2021). Although there is
believed to be a link between personal debt and suicide, the research in support of this is limited
and further studies are needed to determine the exact association (Levinsson, et al., 2023).

Concerning the examination of health expenditure and its correlation with suicide, the literature
presents a somewhat more mixed picture in comparison to other factors (Collins, et al., 2021).
For instance, previous research finds supportive evidence that public welfare expenditure of
any form, including health expenditure, has a significant negative relationship with suicide
rates (Zimmerman, 1995; Zimmerman, 2002; Flavin & Radcliff, 2009). Similarly, a study
examining US state-level panel data from 1982 to 1997 suggests that public health expenditure
is a strong predictor of suicide rates (Minoiu & Rodríguez Andrés, 2008). Interestingly, Minoiu
& Rodríguez Andrés (2008) provide evidence suggesting unemployment rates do not impact
suicides. Ross et al. (2012) refutes these findings due to inaccuracies in the expenditure
measure implemented in the study. Instead, employing a dynamic generalised method of
moments (GMM), using data from US states between 1997 and 2005, they find no
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substantiating evidence that higher per capita public health expenditure correlates to reduced
suicide rates (Ross, et al., 2012). Nevertheless, the literature on health spending does not
uniformly yield such findings. Of particular note is a study which served as a catalyst for the
present research, exploring socio-economic determinants of suicide, encompassing the impacts
of both unemployment and per capita health expenditure (Milner, et al., 2012). Employing a
fixed effects regression model and utilising data spanning 35 countries from 1980 to 2006, the
authors reveal that diminishing unemployment and escalating per capita health expenditure
were associated with declines in suicide rates across the sample. In line with the findings of
Ross et al. (2012) a more recent study incorporating a measure for consumer sentiment
alongside traditional economic factors finds no evidence that health expenditure reduces
suicide rates (Collins, et al., 2021).

There is a growing body of work investigating how economic performance impacts suicide
rates (Abdou, et al., 2020). While the measure of economic performance varies greatly, some
studies implement a measure for a stock market index to represent performance in an economy
or across many countries. A study spanning 1984 to 2008, examining the relationship between
the Nikkei Stock Average and suicide rates in Japan, found evidence to suggest that worsening
stock prices may be linked to suicide, in particular with male suicide (Inoue, et al., 2012).
Conversely, research published in the same year on the relationship between economic
conditions and suicide using data from New York determined there was no association between
stock market volatility and suicide rates (Nandi, et al., 2012). Supporting this conclusion, is a
further piece of research conducted on stock market data from 2004 to 2013 in China (Yin, et
al., 2016). Yin et al. (2016) implements a negative binomial regression model on a measure of
stock market fluctuation called the variation coefficient of market index (VCMI) and determine
there is no significant relationship between the index and suicide rates. A more comprehensive
study, focusing on data from 1998 to 2012 in Taiwan, examines the relationship between stock
price movements and attempted suicides (Lin, et al., 2017). Lin et al. (2017) offer evidence
suggesting that stock price movements are linked to attempted suicides with a 1,000-point fall
in the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalisation-weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) resulting in a
2.11% increase in suicide attempts. In a more recent study, exploring the relationship between
business performance and suicide rates, it was found that stock market volatilities are not
associated with suicides (Abdou, et al., 2020). In their study they use a volatility index of the
Chicago Board Options Exchange Board (CBOE), which is based on the S&P500 index option
prices, called VIX. This finding aligns with that of Nandi et al. (2012).
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2.4 Contribution to Financial and Public Policy
Suicide, a phenomenon with complex psychological, socio-economic, and cultural
underpinnings, incurs significant societal costs and demands multidisciplinary analysis (Jalles
& Andresen, 2015; Samaan, et al., 2015). The recognition of its multi-dimensional impact is
crucial not only for psychologists and sociologists but also for economists and policymakers,
who must grapple with its extensive economic implications (Minoiu & Rodríguez Andrés,
2008). The escalating economic burdens of suicide warrant a well-informed strategy for the
allocation of resources towards prevention and intervention programmes, integrating an
understanding of the full spectrum of costs — fiscal, social, and personal (Rockett, et al., 2023).
In light of these considerations, the present research intends to augment the existing body of
literature on financial determinants of suicide. It stands as the inaugural study that delineates
and analyses financial risk factors, uniquely combining variables such as unemployment,
household debt, health expenditure, and stock market performance within a single analytical
framework. Moreover, this study is pioneering in employing a random-effects model to
scrutinise the relationship between these financial variables and suicide rates. Utilising the
most contemporary data available, this study seeks to provide an updated perspective on the
determinants of suicide, thereby enabling the deployment of targeted financial resources and
enhancing the efficacy of global prevention strategies. Such efforts necessitate the concerted
collaboration of various sectors, including health, labour, finance, and politics, to form a
cohesive response to this pressing issue (WHO, 2023).

3 Methodology
3.1 Research Methodology
This study utilises a quantitative research methodology to examine the impact of various
financial factors on suicide rates across 29 countries. By leveraging a panel dataset spanning
from 1995 to 2019, the research aims to identify and quantify relationships between the suicide
rate and selected financial indicators. These indicators include the unemployment rate,
household debt as a percentage of disposable income, health spending as a percentage of GDP,
and a share price index. Given the nature of the data and the research questions posed, a
random-effects regression model has been chosen as the principal analytical framework. This
decision is substantiated by the results of the Hausman specification test, which suggested that
the random-effects estimator provides a more consistent and efficient model for this analysis
than a fixed-effects approach. In addition, consideration is being given to employing an

9
asymmetric regression model to capture potential nonlinearities in the relationships studied.
The model specification is provided below.

𝑆𝑢𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒!" = 𝛽# + 𝛽$ 𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒!" + 𝛽% 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡!" + 𝛽& 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑡ℎ 𝑆𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔!"

+ 𝛽' 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒!" + 𝜀!"

3.2 Data Collection

The dataset is composed entirely of secondary data sources, ensuring robustness and
comparability. Suicide rate data were sourced from the World Health Organisation and World
Bank databases. The data for the independent variables were extracted from the OECD
database. Substantial effort was dedicated to compiling this data into a coherent panel dataset,
including cleaning and restructuring of the data in Stata to facilitate econometric analysis.

3.3 Proposed Subject Population and Sample

The study's subject population encompasses 29 countries with varying economic profiles and
social structures. These include: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic,
Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia,
Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and United States. This diverse sample provides a
broad perspective, enabling the assessment of the research hypothesis across different national
contexts.

3.4 Data Analysis Techniques

Data analysis will be primarily conducted using a random-effects regression model, suitable
for analysing panel data that consists of multiple observations over time for the same countries.
This model accounts for the unobserved heterogeneity when this heterogeneity is constant over
time and correlated with independent variables. Furthermore, the study will explore
asymmetric regression modelling to scrutinise any potential asymmetrical effects of the
financial factors on suicide rates, addressing the limitations of conventional linear models.

3.5 Resources, Confidentiality & Ethics Issues

The secondary data utilised in this study are sourced from public databases, ensuring that the
investigation adheres to ethical research standards. The data is aggregated and anonymised,
containing no personal identifiers or confidential information that could lead to privacy

10
breaches. The research thus respects the confidentiality and privacy of individuals by using
publicly available data, and it aligns with ethical considerations by not exposing sensitive
personal details. The public nature of the sources also negates potential issues surrounding the
misuse of confidential data.

The resources required for the completion of this dissertation include access to statistical
software (Stata), the databases mentioned above, and the necessary computing resources to
handle large datasets and perform complex econometric analysis. Given the research's reliance
on secondary data and the nature of the topic, no further ethical approvals are anticipated to be
necessary.

3.6 Plan for Project Completion

11
4. References
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Blakely, T. A., Collings, S. C. D. & Atkinson, J., 2003. Unemployment and suicide. Evidence
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