Bayes law rule(defected item) for example factory f1& defected p1 Expected value of prob distribution

P(f1/d)= p(d/f1).p(f1) divided by p(d/f1) . p(f1) + p(d/f2) . p(f2) + ….. E= SUM( Xi . P(Xi) and its M

0.015 defected by fac 1 , prob that is produced in f1 0.35 so 0.015 x 0.35

std

variance

Binomial prob function

Expected value of distribution = np

Std= σ=radical npq

 n
P ( x )    ( p x )( q n  x ), for x  0, 1, 2, ... , or n
 x
There are 4 repeated trials: n = 4 , p = P(radon) = 0.65, q = P(no radon) = 0.35 …p + q = 1

Find prob more than 3 (x>3) = p(x=4)+p(x=5) ,,, at most 13 (x<= 13) its means from 0 to 13 so we use
complementary rule p=1

Poisson distribution

e   x
P( x)  , for x  0, 1,2,...
x!
 x  E ( X )   and  x2  E[( X   ) 2 ]  
a Poisson distribution with average 6 bite cases. 1- What is the probability that in a year: (i) The no. of
snake bite cases will be 7? (ii) The no. of snake bite cases will be less than 2?
2 side , left side , right side