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3 Variables and
Probability Distributions
3
Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables
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Example 7 cont’d
= .30
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Example 7 cont’d
= 1 – .30
= .70
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Example 7 cont’d
Definition
The probability distribution or probability mass
function (pmf) of a discrete rv is defined for every number
x by p(x) = P(X = x) = P(all s : X(s) = x).
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Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables
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A Parameter of a Probability Distribution
The pmf of the Bernoulli rv X was p(0) = .8 and p(1) = .2
because 20% of all purchasers selected a desktop
computer.
At another store, it may be the case that p(0) = .9 and
p(1) = .1.
(3.1)
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A Parameter of a Probability Distribution
Then each choice of a in Expression (3.1) yields a different
pmf.
Definition
Suppose p(x) depends on a quantity that can be assigned
any one of a number of possible values, with each different
value determining a different probability distribution. Such a
quantity is called a parameter of the distribution. The
collection of all probability distributions for different values
of the parameter is called a family of probability
distributions.
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A Parameter of a Probability Distribution
The quantity in Expression (3.1) is a parameter. Each
different number between 0 and 1 determines a different
member of the Bernoulli family of distributions.
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Example 12
Starting at a fixed time, we observe the gender of each
newborn child at a certain hospital until a boy (B) is born.
Then
p(1) = P(X = 1)
= P(B)
=p
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Example 12 cont’d
p(2) = P(X = 2)
= P(GB)
= P(G) P(B)
= (1 – p)p
and
p(3) = P(X = 3)
= P(GGB)
= P(G) P(G) P(B)
= (1 – p)2p
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Example 12 cont’d
(3.2)
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The Cumulative Distribution Function
For some fixed value x, we often wish to compute the
probability that the observed value of X will be at most x.
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The Cumulative Distribution Function
In this example, X 1.5 if and only if X 1, so
Similarly,
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The Cumulative Distribution Function
The largest possible X value is 2, so
and so on.
Notice that P(X < 1) < P(X 1) since the latter includes the
probability of the X value 1, whereas the former does not.
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Example 13
A store carries flash drives with either 1 GB, 2 GB, 4 GB, 8
GB, or 16 GB of memory.
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Example 13 cont’d
F(2) = P(Y 2)
= P(Y = 1 or 2)
= p(1) + p(2)
= .15
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Example 13 cont’d
F(4) = P(Y 4)
= P(Y = 1 or 2 or 4)
= p(1) + p(2) + p(4)
= .50
F(8) = P(Y 8)
= p(1) + p(2) + p(4) + p(8)
= .90
Now for any other number y, F(y) will equal the value of F
at the closest possible value of Y to the left of y. For
example,
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Example 13 cont’d
Figure 3.13 28
The Cumulative Distribution Function
For X a discrete rv, the graph of F(x) will have a jump at
every possible value of X and will be flat between possible
values. Such a graph is called a step function.
Proposition
For any two numbers a and b with a b,
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The Cumulative Distribution Function
In particular, if the only possible values are integers and if a
and b are integers, then
= F(b) – F(a – 1)
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The Cumulative Distribution Function
The reason for subtracting F(a–)rather than F(a) is that we
want to include P(X = a) F(b) – F(a); gives P(a < X b).
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Example 15
Let X = the number of days of sick leave taken by a
randomly selected employee of a large company during a
particular year.
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Example 15 cont’d
P(2 X 5) = P(X = 2, 3, 4, or 5)
= F(5) – F(1)
= .22
and
= .05
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