Monthly Volume Update Automotive Industry

04th Sep 2023

2W Dispatches Up MoM Ahead Of Festive Season; PV/CV Sales Remains Resilient

Total Sales Summary (Aug’23)
Aug’23 Wholesale Volumes: Growth in PV domestic sales was driven by strong SUV dispatches while Company Aug-23 Aug-22 YoY (%)
entry-level car sales continued to remain under pressure. This trend was similar to the previous month’s
Ashok Leyland 15,576 14,121 10%
dispatch trend. CV sales held up well with all OEMs registering encouraging growth on a YoY basis. While
Bajaj Auto (2W+3W) 3,41,648 4,01,595 -15%
MHCV sales remained strong, LCV sales continued to be weak during the month. Domestic 2W sales
grew by 24% MoM (up 1% YoY, and was dragged down by lower domestic 2W sales by Bajaj) as OEMs Eicher Motors (RE) 77,583 70,112 11%
started to fill the inventory ahead of the festive season. 2W exports continued to remain sluggish with Escorts (Tractors) 5,593 6,111 -8%
Bajaj’s exports up 2% YoY but TVS down 1% YoY (with both the OEMs registering a 2% decline in sales Hero MotoCorp 4,88,717 4,62,608 6%
on a MoM basis). YTD in FY24, overall 2W sales (Domestic + exports) stood flat YoY albeit on a low base, M&M 92,026 80,559 14%
as the 5% recovery in domestic dispatches was offset by a 22% drop in exports. PV domestic sales grew Maruti Suzuki 1,89,082 1,65,173 14%
by a healthy ~7% YoY, led by SUVs and new launches even on a high base of the last year. CV domestic
Tata Motors 78,010 78,843 -1%
sales stood flat YoY, tractor sales grew by 1% YoY on a high base, while 3W domestic sales grew
significantly by 53% YoY led by Bajaj. In Aug’23, Bajaj’s 3W sales grew by 93% YoY (YTD up 125% YoY). TVS Motors 3,45,848 3,33,787 4%

PV dispatches grow due to robust SUV sales: The trend of strong SUV sales continued in Aug’23 which
offset weak sales of entry-level cars. MSIL passenger car segment de-grew by 10% YoY but the SUV Relative performance
segment grew by 118% YoY leading to total PV sales growth of 16% for MSIL. SUV sales stood at record
high for M&M, up 26% YoY and demand for its SUV brand continues to remain strong. In the unlisted 150
space, Hyundai/Toyota/MG motors reported sales growth of 9%/40%/9% YoY respectively. Only Tata
130
Motors's sales de-grew by 4% YoY/MoM each. Overall, PV domestic sales proxy grew by 13%/3%
YoY/MoM. 110
90
CV domestic sales remain resilient: Our proxy for CV domestic dispatches grew by 8%/4% YoY/MoM,
indicating resilient CV sales. MHCV sales growth remains robust while LCV sales remain weak. 70
M&M/Ashok Leyland/VECV registered growth on both YoY/MoM basis while Tata Motors sales grew by 50
5% YoY but declined by 1% MoM. Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23

2W domestic dispatches dragged down YoY due to lower Bajaj sales. MoM sales growth indicates S&P Bse Auto BSE Sensex
ramp up of inventory ahead of the festive season: 2W domestic dispatches grew by only 1% YoY as
the growth at Hero/HMSI/TVS/RE//Suzuki of 5%/7%/7%/10%/28% YoY, was largely offset by the drop in Source: Bloomberg
sales at Bajaj (down 31% YoY). Excluding Bajaj Auto, the wholesale would have grown by 7% YoY. It is to
be noted that OEMs loaded up the sales volume ahead of the festive season which got reflected in
dispatches growth of 24% on a MoM basis. Exports remained largely uninspiring with Bajaj exports up only
2% YoY while TVS exports down 1% YoY (down 2% MoM each for both Bajaj and TVS). TVS iQube sales
stood highest so far at 23,887 units in Aug’23 (13,306 units in Jul’23) with the order book remaining
healthy.
Tractor sales remained mixed with M&M sales growing by 3% YoY and Escorts down by 2% YoY.
On an MoM basis, M&M sales declined by 15% while Escorts sales grew only marginally by 1%. With the
festive season falling in Q3FY24 and deficient monsoon in Aug’23 (9% deficit by the end of Aug’23),
tractor sales remained weak. Sep’23 will be crucial for the tractor sales trajectory ahead. If the monsoon
catches up, the tractor sales will regain some traction ahead of the festive season. This will be further
backed by the government’s subsidy programs.
We expect 2W wholesale volumes to remain elevated in Sep’23 to fulfil the festive demand which starts
from Sep’23. Revival in exports in H2FY24 will be critical for Bajaj, TVS, and RE. PV sales will be led by
the strong UV order book. However, we expect the growth rate to moderate in FY24 after strong growth of
27% YoY in FY23. For CVs, a longish CV cycle is expected by various OEMs based on increased
spending on infrastructure by the government. We will continue to monitor if signs of the CV cycle peaking
arise in future months. We remain selective and for OEMs under our coverage, we prefer TVS and
Bajaj Auto in the 2W segment, Maruti in the PV segment, and Ashok Leyland in the CV space.
2W/3W Segment
 Hero MotoCorp total sales stood at ~4.88Lc units in Aug’23. The company registered a volume
growth of 6%/25% on a YoY/MoM basis.
 TVS Motors total 2W sales for Aug’23 was 3.32 Lc units, up 5%/6% YoY/MoM. 3W sales were down
25% YoY at ~13.7k units. The 2W sales include EV IQube sales at ~23.8K units against ~4.4K units in
Aug’22 (13.3K units in Jul’23).
 Eicher Motors(RE) sold a total of ~77.5K units of RE, up 11%/6% YoY/MoM. Exports were up 13%
YoY and 16% MoM to 8,190 units in Aug’23.

PV &CV Segment
 Maruti Suzuki posted total sales of 1.89 Lc units, up 14%/4% YoY/MoM in Aug’23. The domestic sales
were up 15%/3%YoY/MoM.
 Mahindra's Auto division grew by 19%/6% YoY/MoM to ~70k units. Its PV segment witnessed a
growth of 25% to 37.2K units and the 3W segment saw 47%YoY growth to ~7K units.
 Tata Motors reported total sales of ~78K units, down 1%/3% YoY/MoM. The domestic CV sales were
up 5% but down 1% YoY/MoM basis to ~30.8K units; domestic PV sales were down 4% each
YoY/MoM basis to ~45.5K units.
 Ashok Leyland reported total sales of ~15.6K units, up 10% YoY, but 3% MoM. The domestic MHCV Aditya Welekar
segment posted growth of 17% YoY and the domestic LCV segment witnessed a de-growth of 2%, but Sr. Research Analyst
growth of 6% MoM. Email: aditya.welekar@axissecurities.in
 Eicher Motors(VECV) reported total sales of 6.5K, up 29%/10% YoY/MoM.
TractorSegment
Shridhar Kallani
 M&M total tractor sales grew by 1% YoY but de-grew by 14% MoM to ~21.7K units. Research Associate
 Escorts Kubota Limited sold 5.6K tractors, down 8% YoY, but flat MoM. The ECE segment saw the Email: shridhar.kallani@axissecurities.in
sale of 4,520 units (up 131%/12% YoY/MoM).

1
Exhibit 1: Auto Sales Monthly Update
Auto Sales Monthly Update (Summary)

Aug’23 FY YTD (Numbers)

View/Remarks
Company Sales (Units) YoY (%) MoM (%) FY24 FY23 YoY (%)

Maruti Suzuki

Passenger Car 85,509 -10.2% 9.6% 4,18,527 4,58,301 -8.7%

Utility Vehicle 58,746 118.1% -5.3% 2,47,196 1,31,056 88.6%
Vans 11,859 -1.2% -1.5% 56,572 56,813 -0.4% The total sales stood at
Sales to Other OEMs 5,790 -5.9% 22.0% 23,214 34,617 -32.9% ~1.89 Lc units in Aug'23
vs. ~1.65 Lc units in
LCV 2,564 -23.9% 0.2% 13,202 17,004 -22.4% Aug'22 (~1.81 Lc units
in Jul'23).
Total Domestic Sales 1,64,468 14.5% 3.2% 7,58,711 6,97,791 8.7%
Total Exports 24,614 14.6% 10.9% 1,10,031 1,11,229 -1.1%
Total Sales 1,89,082 14.5% 4.1% 8,68,742 8,09,020 7.4%
Tata Motors (Ex JLR)

Domestic PV Sales 45,513 -3.5% -4.4% 2,33,261 2,24,796 3.8%

Domestic CV Sales 30,748 4.9% -1.5% 1,44,189 1,56,489 -7.9%

Total domestic sales
Total Domestic Sales 76,261 -0.3% -3.3% 3,77,450 3,81,285 -1.0%
were ~78 k in Aug'23 vs.
PV Exports 420 127.0% 588.5% 811 518 56.6% ~78.8 K units in Aug’22
(~78.8 k in Jul'23).
CV Exports 1,329 -39.0% -23.1% 6,627 10,078 -34.2%

Total Sales 78,010 -1.1% -3.3% 3,84,888 3,91,881 -1.8%

Mahindra & Mahindra

Passenger Vehicles 37,270 24.8% 2.9% 1,73,647 1,34,215 29.4%

Light Commercial Vehicles 23,613 9.9% 13.0% 1,05,763 1,01,410 4.3% Total domestic sales
were ~68 k units in
3 Wheelers 7,044 47.0% 8.7% 31,305 19,806 58.1% Aug'23 vs. 56 k units in
Aug'22 (~64 k units in
Total Domestic Sales 67,927 21.0% 6.8% 3,10,715 2,55,431 21.6% Jul'23).

Total exports 2,423 -16.8% -4.6% 11,897 13,218 -10.0%

Total Vehicle Sales 70,350 19.2% 6.4% 3,22,612 2,68,649 20.1%

Tractors Domestic 20,647 2.5% -14.6% 1,56,690 1,55,205 1.0% Domestic FES sales
were ~21K units in
Tractor Exports 1,029 -25.5% 2.2% 5,170 8,131 -36.4% Aug'23 vs. ~20K units in
Aug'22 (~24.2K units in
Total tractors 21,676 0.7% -13.9% 1,61,860 1,63,336 -0.9% Jul'23).
Escorts

Tractors Domestic 5,198 -2.1% 0.7% 35,585 34,620 2.8%

Tractors Exports 395 -50.8% -3.4% 2,160 3,648 -40.8% Domestic tractor sales in
Aug’23 were at ~5.2k
units vs. ~5.3k units sold
Total tractors 5,593 -8.5% 0.4% 37,745 38,268 -1.4% in Aug'22 (Jul’23 were at
~5.2k units).
ECEs 520 131.1% 11.8% 2,358 1,493 57.9%

2
 Auto Sales Monthly Update (Summary)

Aug’23 FY YTD (Numbers)

YoY YoY View/Remarks
Company Sales (Units) MoM (%) FY24 FY23
(%) (%)

Ashok Leyland

Domestic MHCV 9,013 17.5% 0.4% 42,273 37,740 12.0%

Domestic LCV 5,532 -1.7% 5.7% 25,586 25,400 0.7%

Total Domestic Sales 14,545 9.4% 2.4% 67,859 63,140 7.5%

Domestic sales were

Exports MHCV 750 5.9% 25.6% 3,226 3,774 -14.5%
~14.5K units in Aug'23
vs. ~13.3K units in
Exports LCV 281 150.9% 6.4% 888 483 83.9% Aug’22 (14.2K units in
Jul'23).

Total Exports 1,031 25.7% 19.7% 4,114 4,257 -3.4%

Total Sales 15,576 10.3% 3.4% 71,973 67,397 6.8%

TVS Motors

Scooters 1,42,502 16.9% 16.9% 5,96,506 5,40,147 10.4%

Motorcycles 1,53,047 -2.6% -0.6% 7,69,810 7,41,120 3.9%

Total domestic sales
Mopeds 36,561 0.0% 0.4% 1,96,583 1,94,725 1.0% stood at ~ 2.58 Lc units
in Aug’23 vs. ~2.40 Lc in
Total 2W Sales 3,32,110 5.3% 6.3% 15,62,899 14,75,992 5.9% Aug'22 (2.37 Lc units in
Jul’23).
Total 3W 13,738 -24.7% 0.5% 62,170 79,225 -21.5% Total Exports were at
~87K units in Aug'23 vs.
Total Sales 3,45,848 3.6% 6.1% 16,25,069 15,55,217 4.5% ~93K in Aug’22 (~89.2K
units in Jul'23).
Domestic Sales 2,58,333 7.3% 9.1% 12,20,927 10,11,953 20.7%

Exports Sales 87,515 -6.0% -1.9% 4,04,142 5,43,264 -25.6%

Bajaj Auto

2W Domestic 1,60,820 -31.2% 13.3% 8,45,741 7,12,640 18.7%

2W Exports 1,24,211 2.0% -2.1% 5,97,460 8,05,197 -25.8% Total domestic sales were
~2.05 Lc units in Aug’23
Total 2W Sales 2,85,031 -19.9% 6.0% 14,43,201 15,17,837 -4.9% vs. ~ 2.56 Lc units in
Aug’22 (~1.79 Lc units in
CV Domestic 44,280 93.2% 18.8% 1,80,178 79,907 125.5%
Jul’23).
CV Exports 12,337 -46.5% -9.5% 65,423 92,167 -29.0%
Export sales were ~1.36
Total CV Sales 56,617 23.2% 11.2% 2,45,601 1,72,074 42.7% Lc units in Aug’23 vs. 1.45
L units in Aug’22 (~1.4 Lc
Total Sales 3,41,648 -14.9% 6.8% 16,88,802 16,89,911 -0.1% units in Jul’23).

3
 Auto Sales Monthly Update (Summary)

Aug’23 FY YTD (Numbers)

View/Remarks
Company Sales (Units) YoY (%) MoM (%) FY24 FY23 YoY (%)

Hero MotoCorp

Scooter 36,531 14.8% 18.9% 1,57,183 1,40,000 12.3%

Motorcycles 4,52,186 5.0% 25.4% 20,75,418 21,58,381 -3.8%

Domestic sales were
~4.72 Lc units in Aug'23
Total Sales 2W 4,88,717 5.6% 24.9% 22,32,601 22,98,381 -2.9% vs. ~4.51 Lc units in
Aug’22 (~3.71 Lc units in
Jul'23).
Domestic 4,72,947 4.9% 27.4% 21,61,401 22,09,590 -2.2%

Exports 15,770 32.9% -21.6% 71,200 88,791 -19.8%

Eicher Motors

2W Domestic 69,393 10.3% 5.0% 3,42,626 2,67,063 28.3%

2W Exports 8,190 13.4% 16.1% 35,780 45,809 -21.9% Domestic RE sales stood
at ~69K units in Aug'23
vs. ~63K units in Aug'22
Total Sales 2W 77,583 10.7% 6.1% 3,78,406 3,12,872 20.9%
(~66K units in Jul'23) and
exports were at ~8.2K in
CV Domestic 5,907 30.4% 11.2% 29,463 25,273 16.6% Aug'23 vs. ~7.2K units in
Aug'22 (~7.05K in Jul'23).

CV Exports 332 -8.5% -21.9% 1,514 2,586 -41.5% Total sales in VECC
business was 6,476 units
in Aug'23 vs. 5,003 units
Volvo CV 237 115.5% 68.1% 947 595 59.2% in Aug'22 (5,887 units in
Jul'23)

Total Sales CV 6,476 29.4% 10.2% 31,924 28,454 12.2%

Source: Company data

4
Exhibit 2: Auto Sales Monthly Segmental Summary
2W sales Aug-22 Jul-23 Aug-23 YoY % MoM % FYTD'23 FYTD'24 YoY

Hero MotoCorp 4,50,740 3,71,204 4,72,947 5% 27% 22,09,590 21,61,401 -2%

HMSI 4,23,216 3,10,867 4,51,200 7% 45% 18,21,053 17,14,256 -6%

TVS Motors 2,39,325 2,35,230 2,56,619 7% 9% 10,06,392 12,13,328 21%

Bajaj Auto 2,33,838 1,41,990 1,60,820 -31% 13% 7,02,640 8,45,741 20%

RE 62,892 66,062 69,393 10% 5% 2,67,063 3,42,626 28%

Suzuki Motorcycle 64,654 80,309 83,045 28% 3% 2,93,320 3,60,712 23%

Total 2W Domestic 14,74,665 12,05,662 14,94,024 1% 24% 63,00,058 66,38,064 5%

Bajaj Auto 1,21,787 1,26,850 1,24,211 2% -2% 8,05,197 5,97,460 -26%

TVS Motors 76,214 77,077 75,491 -1% -2% 4,69,620 3,49,571 -26%

HMSI 39,307 27,443 26,390 -33% -4% 1,83,210 1,29,877 -29%

Hero MotoCorp 11,868 20,106 15,770 33% -22% 88,791 71,200 -20%

RE 7,220 7,055 8,190 13% 16% 45,809 35,780 -22%

Suzuki Motorcycle 14,905 27,527 20,291 36% -26% 74,000 1,11,244 50%

Total 2W Exports 2,71,301 2,86,058 2,70,343 0% -5% 16,66,627 12,95,132 -22%

Total 2W Sales 17,45,966 14,91,720 17,64,367 1% 18% 79,66,685 79,33,196 0%

Tractors sales Aug-22 Jul-23 Aug-23 YoY % MoM % FYTD'23 FYTD'24 YoY

M&M 20,138 24,168 20,647 3% -15% 1,55,205 1,56,690 1%

Escorts 5,308 5,161 5,198 -2% 1% 34,620 35,585 3%

Total Domestic Tractor
25,446 29,329 25,845 2% -12% 1,89,825 1,92,275 1%
Sales
PV sales Aug-22 Jul-23 Aug-23 YoY % MoM % FYTD'23 FYTD'24 YoY

Maruti Suzuki 1,34,166 1,52,126 1,56,114 16% 3% 6,46,170 7,22,295 12%

Hyundai 49,510 50,701 53,830 9% 6% 2,35,305 2,52,834 7%

Tata Motors 47,166 47,628 45,513 -4% -4% 2,24,799 2,33,264 4%

M&M 29,852 36,205 37,270 25% 3% 1,33,811 1,73,643 30%

Toyota Kirloskar 14,959 20,759 20,970 40% 1% 76,465 95,909 25%

MG Motor 3,823 5,012 4,185 9% -17% 18,355 23,875 30%

Honda Cars 7,769 4,864 7,880 1% 62% 38,449 27,797 -28%

Total Domestic PV 2,87,245 3,17,295 3,25,762 13% 3% 15,36,769 16,39,006 7%

CV sales Aug-22 Jul-23 Aug-23 YoY % MoM % FYTD'23 FYTD'24 YoY

Tata Motors 29,313 31,216 30,748 5% -1% 1,56,489 1,44,189 -8%

M&M 21,482 20,898 23,613 10% 13% 1,01,410 1,05,763 4%

Ashok Leyland 13,301 14,207 14,545 9% 2% 63,140 67,859 7%

VECV 4,640 5,452 6,144 32% 13% 25,868 30,410 18%

Maruti Suzuki 3,371 2,559 2,564 -24% 0% 17,004 13,202 -22%

Total Domestic CV 72,107 74,332 77,614 8% 4% 3,63,911 3,61,423 -1%

3W sales Aug-22 Jul-23 Aug-23 YoY % MoM % FYTD'23 FYTD'24 YoY

Bajaj Auto 22,917 37,273 44,280 93% 19% 79,907 1,80,178 125%

TVS Motor 18,248 13,670 13,738 -25% 0% 79,225 62,170 -22%

M&M 4,793 6,481 7,044 47% 9% 19,806 31,305 58%

Total Domestic 3W 45,958 57,424 65,062 42% 13% 1,78,938 2,73,653 53%

Source: Company data

5
About the analyst

1. Sr. Research Analyst: Aditya Welekar is a PGDBM in Finance with 12 years of experience
in Equity Market/Research.

2. Research Associate: Shridhar Kallani is a Chartered Accountant and a graduate from St.
Xavier College, Kolkata.

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be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ASL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or
may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors.

The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the
views expressed in the report. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this document as may be required from time to time without
any prior notice. The views expressed are those of the analyst(s) and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein.
Copyright in this document vests with Axis Securities Limited.

Axis Securities Limited, Dealing office: 1st Floor, I-Rise Building, Q Parc, Loma Park, Thane, Ghansoli, Navi Mumbai-400701, Regd. off.- Axis House,8th Floor, Wadia
International Centre, Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai – 400 025. Compliance Officer: Anand Shaha, Email: compliance.officer@axisdirect.in, Tel No: 022-
49212706
Digitally signed by
NEERAJ NEERAJ CHADAWAR
CHADAWAR Date: 2023.09.04
08:25:14 +05'30'