Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SECTOR
ASII is the prime beneficiary of the luxury tax incentives. ASII’s popular
models—such as Toyota Avanza (+2.3% YoY/+277.5% MoM), Toyota Rush
(+61.1% YoY/+220.8% MoM), and Daihatsu Xenia (-39.1% YoY/+195.4% MoM)—
posted strong wholesales growth in March. Meanwhile, Toyota Innova (-34.0%
YoY/-50.0% MoM) and Fortuner (-32.0% YoY/ -32.0% MoM) were weak. However,
starting in April, the government has expanded the luxury goods tax incentives
for cars with 1,500-2,500 cc engine capacity and >60% local content (50% disc of
20% PPnBM). Therefore, Toyota Innova (17% of Toyota wholesales in 2020) and
Fortuner (7%) are now eligible for the incentive.
Toyota Raize and Daihatsu Rocky are expected to be launched in May, priced at around Rp200mn–250mn, and to be
delivered to customers in June. As such, both cars will be eligible to receive 50% PPnBM discounts (5% PPnBM). New
Wuling Almaz has been launched in April.
Lower discount as inventory is low. Our channel check suggests that buyers of the popular car models—such as Brio
RS, Toyota Avanza, Toyota Rush, and Toyota Innova—will have to wait until May-June for delivery. Some dealers
mentioned that cars delivered in June would receive 50% PPnBM relaxation instead of 100%. Following the strong
demand, Toyota Avanza’s discount was lowered to Rp8mn (from Rp12mn-15mn in February), while Toyota Innova’s was
at Rp5mn-10mn (from Rp15mn in February). The discount on Honda Mobilio was also cut to Rp5mn-8mn (from Rp15mn).
We have a buy call on ASII, with Rp6,300/share TP. We still like ASII for its dominance in the automotive sector despite
short-term headwinds from the pandemic.
4W RETAIL
4W Retail Sales (in '000 ) Mar-20 Feb-21 Mar-21 MoM % YoY % 1Q21 1Q20 YoY % 4Q20 QoQ %
Toyota 17.8 12.5 26.4 110.9 48.7 54.3 66.6 (18.5) 56.6 (4.1)
Daihatsu 10.9 8.41 12.37 47.0 13.0 30.3 39.2 (22.7) 26.5 14.2
Isuzu 1.5 1.81 2.2 19.3 41.7 5.8 5.3 10.8 5.7 1.5
Total for ASII 30.3 22.8 41.0 80.1 35.3 90.4 111.1 (18.6) 88.9 1.7
Honda 10.7 6.02 10.0 67.0 (5.7) 23.1 35.2 (34.2) 23.9 (3.2)
Suzuki 7.2 5.13 8.2 59.4 14.2 19.5 25.4 (23.3) 21.5 (9.1)
Mitsubishi 7.9 8.18 11.6 41.7 46.3 28.6 30.6 (6.4) 19.3 48.7
Wuling 0.8 0.86 1.8 106.5 112.7 3.6 3.9 (6.1) 3.1 17.7
Nissan 0.6 0.99 1.0 0.3 64.1 3.2 2.2 41.0 2.4 29.9
Others (ex Astra products) 3.0 3.0 3.9 31.1 32.4 9.9 10.9 (8.6) 12.3 (19.3)
Total 60.4 46.94 77.5 65.1 28.2 178.5 219.3 (18.6) 171.4 4.1
Market Share (%) Mar-20 Feb-21 Mar-21 MoM % YoY % 1Q21 1Q20 YoY % 4Q20 QoQ %
Toyota 29.4 26.7 34.1 7.4 (4.0) 30.4 30.4 0.0 33.0 (2.6)
Daihatsu 18.1 17.9 16.0 (2.0) 0.4 17.0 17.9 (0.9) 15.5 1.5
Total for ASII 50.1 48.5 52.9 4.4 (2.3) 50.7 50.7 0.0 51.9 (1.2)
Honda 17.6 12.8 13.0 0.1 (2.5) 13.0 16.0 (3.1) 13.9 (1.0)
Suzuki 11.8 10.9 10.6 (0.4) 0.5 10.9 11.6 (0.7) 12.5 (1.6)
Mitsubishi 13.1 17.4 15.0 (2.5) 3.0 16.0 13.9 2.1 11.2 4.8
Wuling 1.4 1.8 2.3 0.5 (0.3) 2.0 1.8 0.3 1.8 0.2
Nissan 2.1 1.3 (0.8) 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.8 1.4 0.4
Others 4.9 6.4 5.1 (1.3) 0.7 5.6 5.0 0.6 7.2 (1.6)
Source: Gaikindo
4W WHOLESALE
4W Wholesales (in '000 ) Mar-20 Feb-21 Mar-21 MoM % YoY % 1Q21 1Q20 YoY % 4Q20 QoQ %
Toyota 26.3 15.1 26.3 73.4 (0.3) 57.4 75.7 (24.1) 50.6 13.4
Daihatsu 18.16 9.4 16.8 78.2 (7.7) 35.2 48.1 (26.9) 21.5 63.3
Total for ASII 45.9 26.4 45.5 72.5 (0.9) 98.7 129.7 (23.9) 77.9 26.8
ASII LCGC 14.2 8.1 13.8 70.4 (2.9) 29.1 38.0 (23.4) 16.0 81.3
Honda 12.1 6.8 11.4 66.6 (5.9) 25.4 36.2 (29.9) 23.6 7.5
Suzuki 5.1 4.6 8.7 88.5 70.5 19.7 24.2 (18.8) 21.2 (7.3)
Mitsubishi 10.4 7.6 13.1 73.0 26.3 29.8 33.6 (11.3) 25.1 18.6
Nissan 0.6 0.0 0.1 325.0 (85.8) 0.1 2.0 (94.3) 0.1 4.5
Others 2.8 3.8 6.3 65.6 129.1 13.5 11.1 21.5 12.1 11.2
Total 76.8 49.2 84.9 72.6 10.6 187.0 236.8 (21.0) 160.0 16.9
Total LCGC 18.5 11.9 18.168 52.8 (1.8) 39.8 51.7 (22.9) 26.7 49.1
Market Share (%) Mar-20 Feb-21 Mar-21 MoM % YoY % 1Q21 1Q20 YoY % 4Q20 QoQ %
Toyota 34.3 30.8 30.9 0.1 (0.9) 30.7 32.0 (1.2) 31.6 (0.9)
Daihatsu 23.6 19.1 19.8 0.6 (0.7) 18.8 20.3 (1.5) 13.5 5.3
Total for ASII 59.8 53.6 53.5 (0.2) (0.5) 52.7 54.8 (2.0) 48.7 4.1
ASII LCGC 76.9 68.2 76.0 7.9 (4.2) 73.1 73.5 (0.4) 60.1 13.0
Honda 15.7 13.8 13.4 (0.5) (0.4) 13.6 15.3 (1.7) 14.8 (1.2)
Suzuki 6.6 9.3 10.2 0.9 (1.5) 10.5 10.2 0.3 13.3 (2.7)
Mitsubishi 13.5 15.4 15.4 0.0 1.7 15.9 14.2 1.7 15.7 0.2
Nissan 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 (1.0) 0.1 0.9 (0.8) 0.1 (0.0)
Others 3.6 7.8 7.4 (0.3) 1.8 7.2 4.7 2.5 7.6 (0.4)
Total LCGC 24.1 24.2 21.4 (2.8) 3.9 21.3 21.8 (0.5) 16.7 4.6
Source: Gaikindo
CORPORATE
Ciputra Development 4Q20: +14% YoY Earnings Growth, Strong Beat to Estimates (CTRA; 1,115; Buy; TP: Rp1,120)
CTRA booked strong revenue in 4Q20 at IDR 3.8tn, +167% qoq, +30% yoy. This was a strong beat to estimates helped by
handovers at CitraLand Surabaya and Newton in Ciputra World Jakarta 2, and the hospital business. FY20 revenue of IDR
8.1tn, +6% yoy, was ahead of our and street forecasts at 122%/123% of respective targets.
The strong revenue recognition corresponded to a GM increase despite rental discounts, while OM was also helped by
-7% yoy opex efficiencies due to the pandemic. FY20 GM rose to 51% and OM to 32%. 4Q20 EBIT of IDR 1.8tn increased
+625% qoq, +74% yoy, while FY20 EBIT of IDR 2.6tn, +21% yoy, and formed 149%/162% of our/consensus’ expectations.
Net earnings concurrently increased despite a 36% increase in interest costs due to PSAK72. 4Q20 PATMI of IDR 1.1tn,
+1,637% qoq, +47% yoy, was ahead of target. FY20 PATMI of IDR 1.3tn increased +14% yoy and formed 159%/189% of
our and consensus’ respective forecasts.
Other impacts of PSAK 72 was a boost in revenue on top of the interest costs. We estimate that stripping these out, PATMI
would have been 170%/200% of our/consensus’ FY forecasts.
We have a Buy on CTRA.
CTRA 4Q20
% of % of
IDRbn 3Q20 4Q20 4Q19 QoQ % YoY% 2019 2020 YoY% 2020F 2020C
target cons
Revenue 1,436 3,831 2,953 167% 30% 7,608 8,071 6% 6,590 6,567 122% 123%
Gross profit 617 2,207 1,534 257% 44% 3,792 4,121 9% 3,278 3,104 126% 133%
Operating profit 249 1,809 1,041 625% 74% 2,155 2,599 21% 1,748 1,605 149% 162%
Pretax profit 141 1,260 909 791% 39% 1,555 1,659 7% 1,186 1,000 140% 166%
Net profit 63 1,089 741 1637% 47% 1,158 1,321 14% 832 699 159% 189%
Erajaya Swasembada: Conference Call Takeaways (ERAA; Rp580; Buy; TP: Rp700)
Management expects the strong performance can extend to 1Q21 as the SSSG in Mar-21 grew 20-30% YoY. The company
will also double its retail market share to 25% in the next 3 years through its store expansion program, including franchise
stores development. Meanwhile, new businesses like FaceShop and Sushi Tei can provide more earnings contribution in
the long-term. All in, we think the strong growth outperformance deserves a valuation re-rating. Our BUY call is
unchanged.
Business Updates
− Strong 4Q20 result was driven by Apple products demand as the products were scarce in some regions.
− Management expects the strong performance in 4Q20 can extend to 1Q21. SSSG in Mar-21 grew 20-30% YoY
although the management highlighted the low-base factor in Mar-20 due to COVID-19 impact. However, we
highlight that the more severe impact of COVID-19 was in Apr-20, at 59% of pre-COVID-19 sales, compared to Mar-20,
at 91% of pre-COVID-19 sales.
− Management is also looking at West Java and East Java as the next revenue drivers as the company is trying to
diversify revenue from Greater Jakarta.
Maintain BUY rating with TP of Rp700. We believe Erajaya can continue its strong performance in 1Q21 on the back of
pent-up demand for Apple products. IMEI implementation will continue to support its business margin and diversifying
its business into other consumer segments will positively impact earnings in the future. We think Erajaya can continue
outperforming other Indo Retail peers in 2021F. Currently the stock is trading at 12.0x PER’21F, relatively at a discount to
its Indo Retail peers at 16x-24x PER’21F.
Merdeka Copper Gold: 2020 Earnings Were Below Forecast (MDKA; Rp2,210; Buy; TP: Rp3,300)
MDKA’s 2020 net profit of USD 36mn (-49% YoY) was below forecast due to the incident in TB gold mine in Sep-20. MDKA
expects ~35% lower gold production this year, and copper output will improve due to the transition to Partolang mine.
Weak 2020 earnings due to incident in Sep-20. Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA) reported 4Q20 net loss of USD 21mn (vs.
USD 5mn net profit in 4Q19/USD 19mn net profit in 3Q20), bringing its 2020 net profit to USD 36mn (-49% YoY),
representing 61%/56% of our/consensus forecasts. Weak earnings were due to the heap leach problem in Sep-20, which
affected gold production and lowered copper production amid integration with the AIM project with Tsingshan, and
increased both gold and copper production cost per unit. The management expects the remediation plan to be complete
by 2Q21 and gold production to return to normal rate by 3Q21. Revenues in 2020 declined to USD 322mn (-20% YoY) due
to lower revenues from both gold and copper/Wetar, despite higher gold and copper prices. Gross and operating
margins also declined to 35.5% and 29.2% from 38.7% and 33.7%, respectively, due to lower gold and copper production,
despite higher gold and copper prices. MDKA expects lower gold production at 100k-120k oz this year (vs. 157k oz in
2020), with a higher AISC of USD 825-900/oz (vs. USD 669/oz in 2020) due to lower output. Its copper production is
estimated to recover to 14k-17k tons this year from only 5.4k tons in 2020 due to the transition to Partolang from Lerokis
mine.
Key points to highlight in 4Q20: 1) Copper production stood at only 1.0k tons (-69% YoY/ -26%) due to the mine
strategic review, while activities at the new mine site have just started in October. As such, copper sales volume declined
YoY (-72% YoY/+21% QoQ), but with higher ASP (+24% YoY/+13% QoQ), in line with market price. 2) Gold production
declined to 5.3k oz (-89% YoY/-88% QoQ) due to suspended mining activities, bringing FY20 gold production to 157.2k oz
(-30% YoY) or in line with our full-year estimate. Gold sales volume declined to 11.0k oz (-72% YoY/-78% QoQ), with an
ASP of USD 1,894/toz (+27% YoY/-1% QoQ).
Maintain Buy with Rp3,300/share TP. We still like MDKA for its exposure to strong copper price outlook and new
venture with Tsingshan on the AIM project, with strong growth outlook due to Indonesia’s developing nickel production
for battery. Nevertheless, we expect short-term earnings pressure due to weak gold production this year amid the
incident.
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa: 4Q20/FY20 Result - Worse Than Expected (RALS; Rp735; Buy; TP: Rp1,150)
Quick take on 4Q20/FY20 results in the newspaper (short-form) this morning, operational details may need to wait for the
long-form. The result was considered a miss as RALS booked a higher net loss than we and consensus anticipated due to
soft sales. RALS currently trades at 20.8x/12.5x PE 2021F/22F. The 12.5x PE 2022F was 0.5 SD below average level.
Net sales reached Rp626bn in 4Q20, -46% YoY. Sales trajectory improved from 3Q20/9M20 at -54% YoY/-57% YoY,
although remained soft and dragged bottom line. Consignment fared better than direct sales as customers chose
discounted consignment products (which usually have more premium brand/price) over in-house products.
Consignment commission was at -37% YoY vs. direct sales at -49% YoY in 4Q20. RALS booked FY20 net sales of Rp2.5tn, -
55% YoY, which accounted for 100%/83% of Mansek/consensus forecasts.
Gross margin and profit. 4Q20 direct sales margin decreased by 0.7 ppt YoY to 28.8%. Nevertheless, the 4Q20 gross
margin saw an increase of 1.7 ppt YoY due to higher consignment proportion. RALS recorded 4Q20 gross profit of
Rp274bn, -44% YoY, and cumulative FY20 gross profit of Rp1.1tn, -57% YoY. FY20 gross profit remained in line with our
forecast but was lower than consensus’, at 99%/90% of Mansek/consensus FY20E.
Operating loss. RALS recorded positive selling expense in 4Q20, which could result from lease accounting adjustment or
rental income. This cushioned the increase in G&A expense (+22% YoY) in 4Q20. The company booked operating loss of
Rp93bn in 4Q20 (vs. Rp11bn operating profit in 4Q19). FY20 operating loss of Rp296bn exceeded our and consensus’
operating loss estimates.
Bottom line. Below the operational line, tax benefit slightly helped the bottom line. However, RALS still recorded net loss
of Rp44bn in 4Q20 (vs. Rp35bn net profit in 4Q19). Cumulatively, FY20 net loss reached Rp139bn, worse than our and
consensus’ FY20E net loss estimates.
Balance sheet. RALS remained debt-free as of Dec-2020, with cash balance of Rp1.6tn. Inventory days declined to 159
days as of Dec-2020 vs. 172 days as of Sep-2020. With longer trade payable days as of Dec-2020 (195 days) vs. Sep-2020
(169 days), RALS was at a negative cash conversion cycle, displaying that its business has good liquidity.
Margin, %
Gross margin 44.6 42.6 42.1 40.8 43.1 44.4 43.8 43.1 39.2
Opex to
34.4 54.3 41.2 45.2 45.9 78.7 58.5 53.5 47.1
revenue
Operating
10.2 (11.7) 0.9 (4.4) (2.9) (34.3) (14.8) (10.4) (7.9)
margin
Net margin 11.6 (5.5) 3.0 1.5 (1.4) (23.5) (7.0) (3.3) (3.6)
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates
COVID-19 INDONESIA
Testing: Daily specimens tested reached 74k, daily people tested reached 44k yesterday.
Infection rate: Daily national infection rate reached 13% yesterday (3DMA 13%/7DMA 12%). Jakarta daily infection rate
lowered to 6% (3DMA 11%/7DMA 9%).
Epicenters: West Java (+1568), Central Java (+716), Jakarta (+661). We see West Java and Central Java cases picking up
since early Apr.
Vaccine progress: Total vaccine administered yesterday went down to 240k doses (7DMA 330k), mainly from slower first
shot vaccination to mitigate low supply in Apr-21 given Biofarma maintenance and delayed AstraZeneca delivery.
10.48mn people (25.97% phase 1 target) have received first shot, 5.57mn people (13.80% phase 1 target) have received
second shot.
Hospital capacity: As of 11 April, Jakarta Covid-19 BOR remained low, isolation bed occupancy was at 41% (vs. 45% on 4
Apr) and ICU was at 48% (vs. 48% on 4 Apr).
JCI 6,050.3 +2.1 +1.2 Rp/US$ 14,617 -0.07 -3.9 Crude Oil, WTI (US$/bl) 63.15 +4.9 +30.2
Dow Jones 33,730.9 +0.2 +10.2 US$/EUR 1.198 +0.27 +2.0 Copper (US$/mt) 9,075 +2.0 +16.8
Nikkei 29,621.0 -0.4 +7.9 YEN/US$ 108.93 -0.12 -5.2 Nickel (US$/mt) 16,378 +1.3 -1.4
Hang Seng 28,900.8 +1.4 +6.1 SGD/US$ 1.336 -0.40 -1.0 Gold (US$/oz) 1,736 -0.5 -8.5
STI 3,179.4 -0.3 +11.8 Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 26,217 +2.2 +29.0
Ishares indo 21.6 +2.2 -7.6 CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 3,730 +0.1 +3.6
Coal (US$/ton) 93.4 -0.1 +16.0
Foreign YTD
YTD Gov. Bond Chg
Fund Flows Last Chg Last Chg Rubber forward (US¢/kg) 216.8 +3.5 -2.5
Chg Yield (bps)
(US$mn) (bps)
Soybean oil
Equity Flow +70.1 +660 5Yr 5.81 -1 +61 54.24 +2.3 +25.2
(US$/100gallons)
Bonds Flow -282.8 -1,281 10Yr 6.58 -2 +69 Baltic Dry Index 2,140.0 +0.0 +56.7
Equity Valuation
Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
MANSEK universe 6,050 6,850 13.2 4,180,126 241,956 286,492 17.2 14.7 2.1 2.0 13.2 12.1 39.4% 18.4% 2.2% 2.8%
Banking 1,681,464 100,141 117,893 16.7 14.5 2.2 2.0 N.A. N.A. 54.2% 17.8% 1.4% 2.4%
BBCA Buy 31,525 40,000 26.9 777,249 33,357 37,145 23.3 20.9 3.8 3.4 N.A. N.A. 20.8% 11.4% 1.6% 2.0%
BBNI Buy 5,900 8,000 35.6 110,027 14,210 16,049 7.7 6.9 0.9 0.8 N.A. N.A. 255.0% 12.9% 0.9% 3.9%
BBRI Buy 4,350 5,500 26.4 536,349 32,751 39,703 16.4 13.5 2.4 2.2 N.A. N.A. 71.2% 21.2% 1.1% 3.1%
BBTN Buy 1,665 2,500 50.2 17,632 2,515 3,011 7.0 5.9 0.8 0.7 N.A. N.A. 65.8% 19.7% 1.4% 2.1%
BDMN Buy 2,750 4,100 49.1 26,877 3,538 4,034 7.5 6.5 0.6 0.5 N.A. N.A. 71.5% 14.0% 2.7% 4.6%
BJBR Neutral 1,605 1,700 5.9 15,791 1,744 2,023 9.1 7.8 1.3 1.2 N.A. N.A. 11.3% 16.0% 6.1% 6.2%
BJTM Buy 805 900 11.8 12,077 1,557 1,810 7.8 6.7 1.1 1.0 N.A. N.A. 10.0% 16.3% 6.3% 6.5%
BNGA Buy 1,095 1,300 18.7 27,519 3,309 4,229 8.3 6.5 0.6 0.6 N.A. N.A. 44.6% 27.8% 3.3% 4.8%
BNLI Neutral 2,070 2,900 40.1 95,211 1,170 2,366 57.6 44.2 2.6 3.4 N.A. N.A. 10.5% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0%
PNBN Buy 990 1,400 41.4 23,841 3,405 3,829 7.0 6.2 0.6 0.6 N.A. N.A. 12.9% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0%
BTPS Buy 3,070 4,500 46.6 23,650 1,597 2,286 14.8 10.3 3.3 2.6 N.A. N.A. 87.3% 43.1% 0.9% 1.7%
BFIN Buy 740 475 (35.8) 11,074 841 1,196 13.2 9.3 1.5 1.4 N.A. N.A. 7.7% 42.3% 2.1% 2.7%
AMOR Buy 3,750 4,400 17.3 4,167 107 188 38.8 22.2 14.3 13.9 30.1 17.1 28.1% 75.1% 2.4% 4.3%
Construction & materials 189,397 6,093 9,792 31.1 19.3 1.4 1.4 12.5 11.0 N/M 60.7% 0.8% 1.2%
INTP Buy 12,850 14,500 12.8 47,304 2,003 2,586 23.6 18.3 1.9 1.7 11.2 9.0 19.8% 29.1% 1.2% 1.5%
SMGR Buy 11,050 11,020 (0.3) 65,543 2,825 3,387 23.2 19.3 1.8 1.7 9.6 8.7 12.1% 19.9% 1.5% 1.5%
ADHI Neutral 1,110 1,350 21.6 3,953 261 442 15.2 8.9 0.7 0.6 8.7 7.5 491.0% 69.6% 0.2% 1.3%
PTPP Neutral 1,255 1,600 27.5 7,781 220 494 35.4 15.7 0.6 0.6 9.2 7.9 87.6% 124.8% 0.5% 0.8%
WIKA Neutral 1,430 1,800 25.9 12,813 513 743 25.0 17.3 0.9 0.8 8.8 7.7 213.6% 44.8% 0.8% 1.2%
WSKT Neutral 1,030 1,410 36.9 13,782 -1,957 -1,277 -7.0 -10.8 1.8 2.1 28.0 23.4 44.5% 34.7% -2.8% -1.9%
WTON Buy 298 400 34.2 2,597 201 309 12.9 8.4 0.7 0.7 5.7 4.7 57.2% 53.3% 1.5% 2.3%
WSBP Neutral 195 240 23.1 5,140 71 227 72.7 22.7 0.8 0.7 15.7 12.1 N/M 220.6% 0.0% 0.7%
JSMR Buy 4,200 7,040 67.6 30,483 1,957 2,882 15.6 10.6 1.5 1.3 11.8 11.0 251.0% 47.3% 0.4% 1.3%
Consumer staples 796,831 41,642 48,051 19.1 16.6 3.8 3.5 12.1 10.8 0.4% 15.4% 3.6% 3.8%
ICBP Buy 8,750 12,050 37.7 102,042 6,319 6,940 16.1 14.7 3.2 2.8 9.6 8.9 5.7% 9.8% 2.9% 3.1%
INDF Buy 6,575 9,950 51.3 57,728 6,307 6,849 9.2 8.4 1.3 1.2 5.8 5.5 6.5% 8.6% 5.1% 5.4%
MYOR Buy 2,600 2,600 0.0 58,133 2,190 2,466 26.5 23.6 4.6 4.1 15.2 13.6 -9.2% 12.6% 1.6% 1.4%
UNVR Buy 6,300 8,550 35.7 240,345 7,382 8,419 32.6 28.5 47.6 40.3 22.9 20.7 3.1% 14.0% 3.0% 3.1%
GGRM Buy 36,625 46,550 27.1 70,470 6,337 7,797 11.1 9.0 1.2 1.1 7.5 6.6 -17.1% 23.0% 5.5% 5.5%
HMSP Buy 1,340 1,750 30.6 155,866 8,189 9,964 19.0 15.6 5.2 5.0 13.0 11.1 -4.6% 21.7% 5.6% 5.3%
KLBF Buy 1,495 1,900 27.1 70,078 2,842 3,180 24.7 22.0 3.7 3.4 16.5 14.9 4.1% 11.9% 2.0% 2.3%
SIDO Buy 770 980 27.3 23,100 1,011 1,136 22.8 20.3 6.9 6.6 17.0 15.5 10.9% 12.4% 3.8% 4.3%
MLBI Buy 9,050 13,250 46.4 19,068 1,063 1,299 17.9 14.7 14.6 12.4 11.5 9.7 656.9% 22.1% 0.7% 5.6%
Healthcare 62,771 1,521 1,593 41.3 39.4 4.3 4.0 17.7 16.3 33.8% 4.7% 0.6% 0.8%
MIKA Neutral 2,670 3,200 19.9 38,038 1,099 1,016 34.6 37.4 6.7 6.1 23.5 25.9 30.6% -7.6% 0.9% 1.2%
SILO Buy 6,750 5,950 (11.9) 10,969 22 55 493.8 198.5 1.8 1.8 11.9 9.7 N/M 148.7% 0.0% 0.0%
HEAL Buy 4,630 4,000 (13.6) 13,765 400 522 34.4 26.4 4.9 4.2 14.0 11.4 17.8% 30.6% 0.3% 0.4%
Consumer discretionary 24,927 29,741 12.5 10.5 1.5 1.3 8.4 7.4 20.7% 19.3% 3.0% 3.3%
ACES Buy 1,420 2,200 54.9 24,353 991 1,153 24.6 21.1 4.2 3.6 16.3 14.2 23.8% 16.4% 1.0% 1.2%
LPPF Buy 1,515 2,000 32.0 3,979 224 839 17.8 4.7 4.9 2.4 4.4 1.7 N/M 274.6% 0.0% 0.0%
MAPA Buy 2,180 4,000 83.5 6,214 314 475 19.8 13.1 1.9 1.7 7.9 5.2 N/M 51.1% 0.0% 0.0%
MAPI Buy 790 1,223 54.7 13,114 550 976 23.8 13.4 2.1 1.8 6.4 4.8 N/M 77.3% 0.0% 0.0%
RALS Buy 735 1,150 56.5 5,216 242 404 21.6 12.9 1.3 1.2 9.1 5.1 N/M 66.9% 0.0% 2.4%
ERAA Buy 580 700 20.7 9,251 771 947 12.0 9.8 1.6 1.4 8.4 7.6 53.3% 22.9% 1.7% 2.0%
ASII Buy 5,250 6,300 20.0 212,539 18,098 20,591 11.7 10.3 1.3 1.2 8.6 8.1 1.9% 13.8% 3.8% 3.8%
SCMA Neutral 1,670 2,000 19.8 23,221 1,341 1,515 17.3 15.3 3.8 3.3 11.7 10.3 12.8% 13.0% 2.3% 2.9%
MNCN Buy 980 2,000 104.1 12,132 2,266 2,639 5.4 4.6 0.8 0.7 3.9 3.2 20.3% 16.5% 2.8% 6.5%
PZZA Buy 740 750 1.4 2,236 130 202 17.2 11.1 1.6 1.5 6.5 5.1 N/M 55.5% 0.0% 2.9%
Commodities 342,234 23,973 28,069 14.3 12.2 1.4 1.3 5.5 4.8 44.0% 17.1% 2.6% 3.0%
UNTR Buy 22,250 31,700 42.5 82,996 10,603 10,822 7.8 7.7 1.2 1.1 3.4 3.0 47.8% 2.1% 3.8% 3.9%
ADRO* Buy 1,195 1,750 46.4 38,223 256 282 10.5 9.6 0.7 0.7 3.6 3.1 24.0% 10.1% 3.2% 3.6%
HRUM* Neutral 4,970 3,000 (39.6) 12,756 10 11 92.7 79.1 2.8 2.7 30.7 25.8 -66.1% 17.1% 0.6% 0.7%
INDY* Neutral 1,415 910 (35.7) 7,372 6 82 81.5 6.4 0.6 0.5 1.7 1.6 286.9% 1182.5% 0.3% 3.9%
Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
ITMG* Neutral 12,075 15,000 24.2 13,241 93 128 10.1 7.3 1.1 1.0 3.8 2.9 61.3% 38.1% 8.5% 11.7%
PTBA Buy 2,420 3,100 28.1 27,884 2,917 3,429 9.5 8.1 1.5 1.4 6.1 4.9 29.9% 17.5% 7.8% 9.2%
ANTM Buy 2,330 3,300 41.6 55,992 2,264 2,270 24.7 24.7 2.4 2.2 13.5 12.9 97.0% 0.3% 1.4% 1.4%
INCO* Neutral 4,430 4,000 (9.7) 44,018 106 146 29.2 21.3 1.4 1.4 9.0 7.4 3.7% 37.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TINS Sell 1,525 1,400 (8.2) 11,358 651 706 17.4 16.1 2.0 1.8 10.0 9.5 N/M 8.5% 2.0% 2.2%
MDKA* Buy 2,210 3,300 49.3 48,394 60 115 56.8 29.6 5.6 4.7 16.7 11.3 1.2% 91.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Property & Industrial Estate 108,620 8,271 9,170 13.1 11.8 0.9 0.8 10.6 10.1 55.5% 10.9% 1.5% 1.6%
ASRI Buy 204 210 2.9 4,008 683 821 5.9 4.9 0.4 0.3 7.8 7.1 1534.2% 20.3% 1.0% 1.0%
BSDE Buy 1,145 1,160 1.3 24,241 2,050 2,103 11.8 11.5 0.7 0.7 11.7 12.1 46.5% 2.6% 0.4% -0.8%
CTRA Buy 1,115 1,120 0.4 20,695 1,094 1,024 18.9 20.2 1.2 1.2 12.1 12.2 31.5% -6.4% 0.6% 0.8%
JRPT Buy 580 670 15.5 7,975 1,065 1,191 7.5 6.7 0.9 0.8 6.4 5.7 6.7% 11.8% 0.1% 4.1%
PWON Buy 515 770 49.5 24,802 1,879 2,361 13.2 10.5 1.4 1.3 9.6 7.9 90.7% 25.6% 1.2% 1.2%
LPKR Neutral 199 200 0.5 14,048 391 345 35.9 40.7 0.5 0.5 12.2 13.3 429.7% -11.8% 0.5% 0.5%
DMAS Buy 236 300 27.1 11,375 988 1,158 11.5 9.8 2.0 1.9 11.1 9.2 11.7% 17.2% 8.9% 8.9%
BEST Neutral 153 130 (15.0) 1,476 122 167 12.1 8.8 0.3 0.3 9.7 8.6 14.2% 37.4% 0.6% 1.0%
Telecom 509,846 30,737 31,524 16.6 16.2 3.0 2.8 6.2 5.8 32.1% 2.6% 3.4% 3.5%
EXCL Buy 2,070 3,300 59.4 22,045 1,596 2,066 13.8 10.7 1.1 1.0 3.9 3.6 329.5% 29.5% 0.9% 1.6%
TLKM Buy 3,340 4,200 25.7 330,868 20,506 23,496 16.1 14.1 3.0 2.8 5.8 5.3 7.8% 14.6% 4.6% 4.6%
ISAT Buy 6,700 7,500 11.9 36,407 3,372 439 10.8 82.9 2.4 2.3 4.9 4.5 N/M -87.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LINK Buy 3,400 4,500 32.4 9,647 925 942 10.9 10.7 1.7 1.5 5.1 4.8 0.1% 1.8% 2.9% 2.9%
TBIG Buy 2,480 2,500 0.8 53,645 1,467 1,512 36.6 35.5 8.4 7.3 15.7 14.9 29.9% 3.1% 1.1% 1.1%
TOWR Buy 1,140 1,500 31.6 57,234 2,872 3,068 19.9 18.7 4.9 4.2 10.7 10.1 12.5% 6.8% 2.1% 2.1%
Transportation 3,228 251 303 12.9 10.7 0.6 0.6 5.2 5.2 N/M 20.6% 1.9% 2.3%
BIRD Buy 1,290 1,700 31.8 3,228 251 303 12.9 10.7 0.6 0.6 5.2 5.2 N/M 20.6% 1.9% 2.3%
Poultry 144,149 5,574 6,218 25.9 23.2 3.6 3.3 14.4 13.3 86.5% 11.6% 0.9% 1.7%
CPIN Buy 7,150 6,950 (2.8) 117,246 3,728 4,282 31.4 27.4 4.7 4.3 19.7 17.4 34.3% 14.9% 1.0% 1.6%
JPFA Buy 2,130 1,700 (20.2) 24,978 1,696 1,714 14.7 14.6 2.0 1.8 8.1 8.2 392.5% 1.1% 0.4% 2.0%
MAIN Buy 860 700 (18.6) 1,925 150 222 12.8 8.7 0.9 0.8 5.5 4.7 N/M 48.1% 0.0% 1.7%
Oil and Gas 29,332 -1,175 4,138 -25.0 7.1 0.9 0.9 5.9 5.1 -65.2% N/M 0.0% 4.2%
PGAS* Buy 1,210 2,200 81.8 29,332 -83 292 -25.0 7.1 0.9 0.8 5.9 5.1 65.5% N/M 0.0% 4.2%
Note:
- *) net profit in USD mn
- U/R means Under Review
- n/a means Not Available
- N/M means Not Meaningful
- N.A means Not Applicable
RESEARCH
Adrian Joezer Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Consumer adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9415
Tjandra Lienandjaja Deputy Head of Equity Research tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9617
Ariyanto Kurniawan Automotive, Coal, Metal Mining, Chemical ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9682
Kresna Hutabarat Banking, Telecom kresna.hutabarat@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9542
Robin Sutanto Property, Building Material robin.sutanto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9572
Edbert Surya Construction, Transportation edbert.surya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9623
Silvony Gathrie Banking silvony.gathrie@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9544
Inggrid Gondoprastowo, CFA Healthcare, Consumer, Retail inggridgondoprastowo@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9450
Riyanto Hartanto Poultry, Research Assistant riyanto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9488
Henry Tedja Media, Oil & Gas henry.tedja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9434
Wesley Louis Alianto Research Assistant wesley.alianto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9510
Leo Putera Rinaldy Chief Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9406
Imanuel Reinaldo Economist imanuel.reinaldo@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9651
INSTITUTIONAL SALES
Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales feliciana.ramonda@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Henry Pranoto Institutional Sales henry.pranoto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Kevin Giarto Institutional Sales kevin.giarto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi Institutional Sales sharon.tjahjadi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Talitha Medha Anindya Institutional Sales talitha.anindya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Angga Aditya Assaf Institutional Sales angga.assaf@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Ilona Carissa Institutional Sales Ilona.simanungkalit@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Michael Taarea Equity Dealing michael.taarea@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
RETAIL SALES
Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities andreas@mandirisek.co.id 6221 5296 9693
Boy Triyono Jakarta boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id 6221 5296 5678
Care Center Online Jakarta care_center@mandirisek.co.id 14032
Ruwie Medan ruwie@mandirisek.co.id 6261 8050 1825
Linawati Surabaya linawati@mandirisek.co.id 6231 535 7218
Maulidia Osviana Lampung maulidia.osviana@mandirisek.co.id 62721 476 135
Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id 62711 319 900
Yudhistira Putra Pradana Bandung yudhistira.pradana@mandirisek.co.id 6222 426 5088
Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id 62561 582 293
Yogiswara Perdana Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id 62274 560 596
Achmad Rasyid Bali achmad.rasyid@mandirisek.co.id 62361 475 3066
www.most.co.id care_center@mandirisek.co.id 14032
INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last
published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral (-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower).
DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and
supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its
judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its
accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein
to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will
seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number
62-21-5263445 or fax 62-21-5275374.
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the
companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be
influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.