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Network Structures and Project Complexity in Environmental Impact

Assessment Outcomes

Conference Paper · March 2024

DOI: 10.1061/9780784485279.014

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Network Structures and Project Complexity in Environmental Impact Assessment

Outcomes

John Salazar1; Jose Guevara2; and Gabriel Castelblanco, A.M.ASCE3

1
Ph.D. Student, School of Project Management, Univ. of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Email: jsal4833@uni.sydney.edu.au
2
Associate Professor, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universidad de los Andes,
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Bogota, Colombia. Email: ja.guevara915@uniandes.edu.co

3
Assistant Professor, M.E. Rinker, Sr. School of Construction Management, Univ. of Florida,
Gainesville, FL (corresponding author). Email: gabriel.castelbl@ufl.edu

ABSTRACT

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have been implemented as a suitable delivery method for
infrastructure projects. Because of their size, those projects imply disrupting significantly the
natural environment when creating complex built environments that fulfill human needs. In this
context, PPPs require instruments to evaluate and mitigate environmental impacts through the
infrastructure life cycle such as the environmental impact assessment (EIA). In PPPs, the EIA is
carried by concessionaires composed of equity providers (EPs), which are embedded in network
structures. Despite the relevance of EPs and project complexity for the outcomes of the EIA,
previous research in this field has mainly focused on understanding EIA processes rather than its
outcomes and drivers for effectiveness. To overcome this limitation, this paper analyzes the
influence of temporal network metrics (e.g., temporal degree centrality, temporal closeness
centrality, and temporal betweenness centrality), defined by EP relationships, and project
complexity in delivering effective EIA. This research gathers information on 28 road PPPs in
Colombia between 2014 and 2023. Findings show that actors’ positioning computed through
temporal metrics, especially temporal closeness centrality, influences the capacity of actors to
carry EIA effectively.

KEYWORDS: EIA; Public-Private Partnership; Temporal Social Network Analysis.

INTRODUCTION

Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) have been widely recognized as an appropriate delivery

method for developing large-scale infrastructure projects (Biziorek et al. 2024; Castelblanco et
al. 2022; Guevara et al. 2023; Marcellino et al. 2023; Rojas et al. 2023). These projects are often
of significant size and complexity (Biziorek et al. 2023; Castelblanco et al. 2024; El Kawam et
al. 2024; Khallaf et al. 2024), with the potential to significantly disrupt the natural environment
during the construction and operation phases (Castelblanco et al. 2021). Considering the need to
limit the impacts on the environment affected by climate change (Rojas et al. 2020; Valenzuela
Blanco et al. 2023) and incorporate appropriate risk management strategies (Ortiz-Mendez et al.
2023), PPPs require a range of instruments to evaluate and mitigate environmental impacts
throughout the infrastructure life cycle (Castelblanco and Guevara 2022). One of the most
important instruments is the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), which is carried out by
concessionaires that are typically composed of Equity Providers (EPs). The effectiveness of the

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EIA is crucial for ensuring that PPP projects are developed sustainably, with minimal impact on
the environment.
Despite the critical role of EPs and project complexity in ensuring the effectiveness of the
EIA, prior research has primarily focused on understanding EIA processes rather than its
outcomes and drivers for effectiveness (Caro-Gonzalez et al. 2021; Dagiliute and Juozapaitiene
2018; Soria-Lara et al. 2020). As a result, there is a gap in the literature regarding the influence
of EPs and project complexity on the effectiveness of the EIA in PPP projects. To address this
research gap, this paper proposes an analysis of the influence of temporal network metrics, such
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as temporal degree centrality, temporal closeness centrality, and temporal betweenness

centrality, on the effectiveness of the EIA. These metrics are defined by the relationships
between EPs and are indicative of their positioning within the network. The paper focuses on a
sample of 28 road PPPs in Colombia, between 2014 and 2023, to investigate how temporal
network metrics and project complexity affect the ability of EPs to deliver effective EIAs. The
findings of this research aim to uncover the role of positioning actors within the network and
project complexity in the effectiveness of the EIA in PPP projects. The paper's contribution lies
in its exploration of the outcomes and drivers of effective EIA in PPPs, with a particular
emphasis on the role of temporal network metrics and project complexity in achieving this
objective.

BACKGROUND

Project EIA and its Effectiveness. The EIA is a procedure used to assess the potential
environmental consequences of projects, encompassing a comprehensive analysis of both
beneficial and adverse effects on the environment, while also taking into account social and
economic factors (Toro et al. 2010). The EIA process involves five processes: scoping, studying
baseline conditions, defining potential impacts, projecting compelling impacts, and evaluating
impacts (Caro-Gonzalez et al. 2021). Scoping identifies all potential impacts while analyzing
baseline conditions and establishes the existing environmental context (Toro et al. 2010).
Establishing potential impacts considers project-specific conditions and time frames while
forecasting significant impacts predicts potential adverse effects. Assessing impacts measures the
potential consequences on natural resources.
One relevant outcome of the EIA is its effectiveness, which requires setting appropriate
objectives and using the right means for environmental care. EIA effectiveness is
multidimensional as agreed by scholars. There is an overall consensus in the literature that EIA
effectiveness incorporates four dimensions, namely, substantive, procedural, transactive, and
normative effectiveness (Chanchitpricha and Bond 2013; Loomis and Dziedzic 2018).
Procedural effectiveness analyzes adherence to the policy and the EIA process structure, while
substantive effectiveness assesses the impact of EIA on reducing negative environmental impacts
(Loomis and Dziedzic 2018). Transactive effectiveness focuses on obtaining outcomes with the
least time and financial costs (Chanchitpricha and Bond 2013). Normative effectiveness assesses
how well the policy meets its intended objective, usually related to sustainable development
(Castelblanco et al. 2023). Previous studies have used interviews and document analysis to
improve normative effectiveness (Chanchitpricha and Bond 2013; Loomis and Dziedzic 2018).
Temporal Social Network Analysis. Following the mathematical procedures proposed by
Kim and Anderson (2012), temporal networks can be examined by considering that such
structures can be observed within a finite period of time, starting at tstart= 0 and ending at tend=

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T. A dynamic network, therefore, can be defined as a structure G with a particular number of

nodes V and a set of temporal linkages between the nodes E0,T on a time interval [0,T]. For any
G, there exist nodes u and v that can be mutually linked in any interval [i, j], such that (u, v) ∈
E0, T and i<= T and j>= 0. Based on that, a dynamic network can be represented as a series of n
“snapshots” in which each snapshot has a duration of T/n. Accordingly, a temporal graph G can
be depicted as a collection of static networks G1, G2,…, Gn (Kim and Anderson 2012; Nicosia
et al. 2013).
Based on the above, Fig 1. Illustrates a dynamic network G1,4 by considering its aggregated
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and snapshot forms. In the aggregated structure (G1,4), it is possible to observe both the nodes
and the linkages of the network, but the time-ordering of such relationships remains unclear. For
instance, it is uncertain if there is a temporal path from node A to B. In contrast, on the right-
hand side of Fig 1., the four snapshots allow anyone to examine the time at which links are
formed, showing that there is not a temporal path between A and B.

Figure 1. Dynamic Network

To further clarify the representation of temporal networks, researchers represent time-ordered

graphs like the one depicted in Fig 1 as the network shown in Fig 2. Assuming that each link in
G1,4 represents a communication flow between any two nodes, Fig 2 shows the way through
which a message can be delivered among the nodes. For the particular example presented in Fig
1. The dashed line represents a temporal path from A to B on the time interval [0, 4].

Figure 2. Flow of Communication in a Dynamic Network

Given the above definitions, scholars have proposed a series of node-based measures to
examine the temporal features of dynamic structures, as shown in Table 1. Node-specific metrics
offer information on the number of edges connected to a node in a time interval (i.e., degree
centrality), the number of shortest temporal paths crossing through a node (i.e., closeness

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centrality), and the ratio between the number of shortest paths related to a node and the total
number of temporal paths across all nodes in the network (i.e., betweenness centrality).

Table 1. Temporal SNA Metrics

SNA Metric Description

Temporal degree Percentage of firms in the market with which an Equity Provider keeps collaborating
centrality in average, in time, to submit proposals (Borgatti et al. 2018; Guevara et al. 2022).
Actor-
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Temporal closeness Proclivity of a firm to spread information in the time by quickly reaching other
based
centrality partners (Kim and Anderson 2012; Salazar et al. 2021, 2022).
metrics
Temporal Propensity of a firm to become a bridge between other firms and keep its influence
betweenness centrality over time (Eteifa and El-adaway 2018; Freeman 1978).

METHODOLOGY

The main goal of this research is to analyze the influence of the temporal actor-based metric
in the PPP EIA by paying particular attention to the Colombian Fourth Generation (4G) Road
PPP program between 2014 and 2023. To do so, this investigation moves beyond traditional
static approaches and uses temporal SNA, a dynamical approach capable of analyzing network
behaviors by incorporating the effects related to the timings of connections among nodes and
their correlations. The network perspective was selected because examining the patterns and
configurations of PPP investments is important to fully understand infrastructure production
processes related to competition, collaboration, and dominance dynamics. The authors focused
on studying relationships among PPP equity providers, as this is relevant to gain insight into the
way such investors respond to evolving market conditions. Finally, the temporal dimension was
incorporated into the analysis in order to dynamically understand the timings of connections and
their influence over EIA processes. The 4G program was selected because of four main reasons.
First, it generated a high level of interest from private parties seeking to make equity investments
in PPP-related initiatives. Second, the tendering of the 32 4G projects took place within a
relatively short period of time as compared with similar programs in other countries (i.e.,
contracting authorities in the US and Chile have taken more than a decade to tender an
equivalent number of projects). Third, 4G initiatives followed project finance principles, making
4G procurement processes analogous to toll road PPP tendering procedures implemented in
several jurisdictions worldwide, while the previous generations of PPPs failed to fully
incorporate these principles; Fourth, the authors had access to official procurement documents
describing the tendering process, listing the starting and ending dates of the different tendering
stages, and recording the complete sets of investors participating in each one of such phases.
Network Data. The authors employed the Colombian Online Public Procurement Platform
(SECOP), which is the main procurement database for public infrastructure works within the
country. The selection of this particular database allowed the authors to examine all the
contractual and procurement-related documentation associated with all 4G PPP projects. The
examined documents included PPP agreements, invitations to tender, and registries of preferred
proponents. Specifically, by choosing this database as the main source of information, it was
possible to distinguish the dates of the main procurement stages (i.e., the invitation to tender,
prequalification, and contract award); identify the PPP sponsors participating in the tendering
processes, and recognize the relationships established by bidders and preferred proponents.
In total, the authors identified 32 initiatives as these correspond to the entire population of
PPP projects that were procured between 2012 and 2017 by the Colombian PPP unit (ANI). The

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authors employed these 32 projects to build the network of equity providers considering bidders
and preferred proponents to not lose information relevant to evaluate the connections among
equity providers. However, only the equity providers of 28 projects to run OLS were chosen due
to a lack of information regarding EIA. It is important to note that all the studied projects
comprise multilane interurban toll road concessions, involving the construction of roadway lanes
and, in many cases, bridges and tunnels. Projects were procured as unsolicited (i.e., 9 initiatives)
and solicited (i.e., 19 initiatives) proposals. Concession periods were established with an average
duration of 25-to-30 years in all PPPs. 48 equity providers participated in those 28 projects.
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Network Analysis and OLS. Network development and analysis processes were conducted
through the Statnet suite in the R software (Handcock et al. 2019). To develop the temporal
networks with their corresponding diagrams, the NetworkDynamic package developed by Butts
et al. (2023) was employed. This required three main inputs: a reference matrix, a vector of
starting times for each link (i.e., onset vector), and a vector of ending times for each tie (i.e.,
terminus vector) (Butts et al. 2023). To create the reference matrix, the authors downloaded the
data from SECOP and developed a two-mode Wij matrix for the bidders of the 4G program. In
this array, each row and column represented a bidder and a PPP project, respectively. For every
cell in the matrix, a value of 1 indicated that bidder-i had participated in project-j, otherwise
Wij=0. On the other hand, considering the dates of the project’s construction duration, the
durations for the qualification, bidding submission, and bidding evaluation stages were
calculated. With this information, the authors determined the onset and terminus vectors.
The incorporation of the input data into the NetworkDynamic package allowed the authors to
generate multiple one-mode adjacency matrices within specific time intervals. Each adjacency
array Xij(t) represented the aggregation of relationships between bidders for a specific time
period, as a value of 1 in each cell indicated a relational linkage between bidder-i and bidder-j at
the moment of bidding for PPP contracts. A color-coding scheme was used to differentiate the
different bidding consortiums formed by bidding firms in each PPP project.
After incorporating the data into the R software, the authors used NDTV (i.e., Network
Dynamic Temporal Visualization) and TSNA (Butts et al. 2023) packages to produce network
diagrams and metric-related calculations. The former helped to render animations and plot static
network graphs. The latter facilitated the computation of temporal node- and network-based
metrics, as defined in previous sections. After creating the networks, the three temporal actor-
based metrics were employed to capture the degree to which each of these metrics influences
EIA. The independent variables correspond to these actor-based temporal metrics, and the
dependent variable is the average EIA scores of the projects performed by the equity provider
analyzed. In other words, each equity provider is assigned a score based on its temporal degree
centrality, temporal betweenness centrality, and temporal closeness centrality. These scores as
treated as observations for each equity provider. Additionally, the equity providers have
delivered PPP projects, each related to four EIA dimensions (e.g., substantive, procedural,
transactive, normative effectiveness) and prior consultation. The authors computed the average
score of each dimension separately to account for the projects developed for each equity
provider. For instance, if equity provider i delivered projects 1, 10, and 20, then the independent
variables' values associated with this observation would be the temporal centrality metrics of the
equity provider i. Similarly, each of the EIA dimension qualifications of projects 1, 10, and 20
would be averaged to assess the capacity of stakeholder i to effectively conduct an EIA given its
network position. The authors ran multiple models combining these metrics and fixed some for
heteroscedasticity using the R library lmtest (Zeileis and Hothorn 2002). Furthermore, the

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authors compute Variance Inflation Factors (VIFs) to avoid multicollinearity among the three
actor-based metrics.

RESULTS & DISCUSSION

Figure 3 displays the filmstrip of the Colombian network of equity providers at different
points in time. Time intervals are not equally distributed since the NDTV package presents an
algorithm showing big changes in the network considered. In these time windows, each node
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represents a participant in the Colombia 4G Toll road program. In Figure 3, the size of the links
represents the number of projects in which two participants conjointly take part in the same
aggregate time interval.

Figure 3. Network Evolution Colombian 4G Toll Road PPP market

Table 2 presents the results of the models. The best fit for each one of the EIA metrics is
obtained when combining the three temporal centrality metrics. The biggest VIF combining
these three temporal actor-based metrics is 5.60. VIF values bigger than 5 imply a moderate
correlation among the independent variables. However, values smaller than ten have been shown
to be acceptable (Forthofer et al. 2006). In the five models of Table 2, the three temporal actor-
based metrics are able to describe relatively well three EIA outcomes (e.g., Normative
effectiveness, Procedural, and Substantive effectiveness). Normative effectiveness is influenced
by temporal closeness centrality. In this way, the capacity of the equity providers to access and
spread information can condition the way the EIA policy meets its objectives (Castelblanco et al.
2023). However, regarding the EIA procedural dimension, the temporal degree centrality metric
is the most important effect. Despite the negative values of the temporal closeness centrality
effect, this effect is compensated by the temporal degree centrality. In this way, the number of
relationships an equity provider has access to can state how these providers adhere to policies
and EIA structures (Loomis and Dziedzic 2018). This model's results align with previous models
of learning where peers influence the behavior of specific actors (Jackson 2019). However,
substantive effectiveness is the only significate model that is negatively influenced by social
relationships. In this last model, the temporal closeness centrality is significant, but the temporal

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degree centrality has the highest impact. This last result suggests that social relationships can
block decision-making processes and reduce environmental impacts (Chanchitpricha and Bond
2013).

Table 2. Results Models

Prior Normative Procedural Substantive Transactive

Consultation Effectiveness Effectiveness Effectiveness Effectiveness
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Intercept 0.32*** 0.26* 0.57*** 0.31** 0.82

Temporal Degree -6.11** -7.23 10.87** -14.05** 0.87
Temporal Betweenness 4.44*** -1.77 -2.22 1.30 -0.67
Temporal Closeness 1.49 6.10*** -5.21*** 7.03*** -1.32
R2 0.16 0.30 0.31 0.29 0.06
R2 adjusted 0.10 0.25 0.26 0.24 0.00
Note: Significance values***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05

Table 2 provides insights into the impact of social relationships, specifically centrality in
social networks, on the effectiveness of EIA and prior consultation. To explore relationships
among EPs and their influence on EIA policy effectiveness, examining three centrality measures:
temporal degree centrality, temporal closeness centrality, and temporal betweenness centrality.
The analysis of these measures revealed interesting patterns. Temporal degree centrality
emerged as the most significant factor influencing procedural effectiveness. This means that the
number of relationships an equity provider has access to can state how these providers adhere to
policies and EIA structures. This finding suggests that social relationships can play a crucial role
in ensuring that policies are implemented correctly. Table 2 also highlights the negative impact
of social relationships on substantive effectiveness, which refers to the actual environmental
outcomes achieved by the policy. In this case, the temporal closeness centrality is significant, but
the temporal degree centrality has the highest impact. This result implies that social relationships
can sometimes hinder decision-making processes and reduce environmental impacts.
Contrasting with Procedural and Substantive effectiveness, Normative effectiveness is only
affected significantly by one single temporal metric (i.e., temporal closeness centrality). Thus,
the achievement of the policy’s intended objectives is positively influenced by this temporal
centrality. This finding suggests that effective information sharing between multiple firms is
essential to enhance compliance with EIA policies. Interestingly, temporal betweenness
centrality was found to have no significant effect on any of the EIA effectiveness dimensions,
indicating that indirect relations mediated through specific equity providers have no impact on
EIA outcomes.
There is also an inverse influence of temporal degree centrality on procedural effectiveness
with respect to substantive effectiveness and prior consultation. This means that the more firms
with which an EP keeps collaboration in time, will simultaneously benefit the adherence to EIA
policies and structures and, simultaneously, will negatively impact the long-term environmental
outcomes achieved by the policy. This can be interpreted as achieving a strict adherence to the
EIA policies and procedures to successfully obtain an environmental license in the short term is
benefited from the collaboration with various firms that may provide valuable information and
practical experience to fulfill the policy requirements necessary for the environmental licensing
process. Conversely, a successful prior consultation process and the ultimate accomplishment of
the environmental outcomes in terms of the successful prevention, reduction, and mitigation of

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the negative environmental impacts in the long term relies on internal factors and commitment
within the responsible EPs rather than collaboration ties with other firms.
Furthermore, there is an inverse influence of temporal closeness centrality on normative and
substantive effectiveness with respect to procedural effectiveness. Consequently, higher
information sharing with multiple firms will simultaneously benefit the achievement of the
policy’s intended objectives and the long-term environmental outcomes achieved and
simultaneously will be detrimental to the adherence to EIA policies and structures.
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CONCLUSIONS, LIMITATIONS, AND FUTURE RESEARCH

This paper analyzes the influence of temporal network metrics on the effectiveness of the
EIA in PPP projects, with a particular emphasis on the role of centrality metrics and project
complexity. We analyzed a sample of 28 road PPPs in Colombia between 2014 and 2023, and
our findings shed light on the outcomes and drivers of effective EIA in PPPs.
Findings show that social relationships play a crucial role in ensuring that policies are
implemented correctly, and the number of relationships an EP has access to can indicate how
these providers adhere to policies and EIA structures. However, social relationships can
sometimes hinder decision-making processes and reduce environmental impacts. In terms of
normative effectiveness, effective information sharing between multiple firms is essential to
enhance compliance with EIA policies. Interestingly, temporal betweenness centrality
demonstrated no significant effect on EIA outcomes, suggesting that indirect relationships
mediated through specific EPs have no significant impact. We also found that there is an inverse
influence of temporal degree on procedural effectiveness respecting substantive effectiveness
and prior consultation, and an inverse influence of temporal closeness on normative and
substantive effectiveness respecting procedural effectiveness. These results suggest that a
successful adherence to EIA policies and procedures to obtain an environmental license in the
short term benefits from collaboration with various firms, while long-term environmental
outcomes achieved and the successful prevention, reduction, and mitigation of negative
environmental impacts rely on internal factors and commitment within the responsible EPs.
This study contributes to a better understanding of the role of temporal network metrics and
project complexity in the effectiveness of the EIA in PPP projects. This study provides important
insights into the role of social relationships in the effectiveness of EIA policies. The findings
suggest that policymakers should consider the importance of social networks when designing and
implementing EIA policies. They should also be aware of the potential negative effects of social
relationships on substantive effectiveness and take steps to mitigate them. The study also
highlights the importance of using centrality measures to evaluate social relationships in the EIA
context and provides a useful framework for future research in this area.
The insights gained from this study hold valuable implications for policymakers and
practitioners aiming to improve the effectiveness of EIAs. (1) This study allows for recognizing
the significance of information sharing among equity providers in achieving EIA normative
effectiveness for policymakers encouraging collaboration and the exchange of knowledge
between various firms involved in PPP projects. (2) Policymakers can acknowledge that while
collaboration and network ties can be beneficial for procedural effectiveness in obtaining
environmental licenses in the short term, a balanced approach is required because an overreliance
on collaboration may negatively impact long-term substantive effectiveness. (3) While social
relationships can be advantageous for policy adherence, it's crucial for policymakers to recognize

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their potential to hinder decision-making processes and reduce environmental impacts. (4)
Policymakers should recognize that the effectiveness of EIA policies may vary based on the
complexity of the PPP project to design policies and strategies accordingly.
The findings presented in this study are based on an analysis of a sample of 28 road PPPs in
Colombia. While these results offer valuable insights into the specific context of Colombian road
PPPs, it's important to acknowledge the potential limitations in terms of generalizability. The
unique characteristics of the Colombian context, including regulatory frameworks, project
dynamics, and cultural factors, may influence the observed relationships between temporal
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network metrics and EIA effectiveness. To enhance the robustness and broader applicability of
the findings, future research may conduct similar analyses in different countries and
infrastructure sectors with diverse PPP projects to validate the observed patterns and
relationships. This broader perspective will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the
role of social relationships and temporal network metrics in diverse PPP contexts.

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