Confidence Interval 1

Confidence Interval

Charles Collantes

STATISTICS (MA320-8C), 2024 SPRING B18

Lori Ann Simmons

April 07, 2024

Confidence Interval 2

Confidence Interval

Confidence intervals, according to Hazra (2017), offer important insights into the

precision and variability of data. The trade-off between precision and confidence is visible

when comparing the 95% and 99% confidence intervals (Cumming, 2013). A broader interval

denotes greater confidence, whereas a narrower interval denotes higher precision (Simundic,

2008).

Of course! Let's examine the confidence intervals in more detail and see why, even

when the sample mean value is the same, one interval is broader than the other:

How to Interpret Confidence Intervals

1. Heart Rate at Rest:

 For Males:

95% CI: [79.06, 81.72]

99% CI: [78.64, 82.13]

 For Females:

95% CI: [80.49, 83.05]

99% CI: [80.09, 83.45]

Interpretation

 The 95% confidence interval (CI) is shorter for both genders than the 99% CI,

suggesting more accuracy or confidence in the former.

 The lower limits of the CIs show that there is a minor difference in the resting heart

rates of males and females, with males usually having a lower resting heart rate than

females.

 With 95% confidence, we may deduce from the CIs that the genuine resting heart rate

of men is, for instance, between 79.06 and 81.72 beats per minute (bpm).
Confidence Interval 3

2. After Workout Heart Rate:

 For Males:

95% CI: [88.81, 91.75]

99% CI: [88.34, 92.22]

 For Females:

95% CI: [90.02, 92.44]

99% CI: [89.64, 92.82]

Interpretation

 The 95% CIs are smaller than the 99% CIs, similar to resting heart rate, suggesting

more accuracy or confidence in the former.

 The higher values of the CIs show that heart rates after exercise are greater in both

men and females than heart rates at rest.

 According to the CIs, the genuine post-exercise heart rate for guys, for instance,

ranges from around 88.81 to 91.75 bpm with 95% confidence.

Comparing the Intervals of 99% and 95%:

Greater Range with 99% Confidence:

 We are need more assurance when we create a 99% confidence interval. This implies

that we should have more assurance that the interval we compute accurately

represents the population parameter.

 The interval must be larger in order to get this greater degree of confidence. This

broader interval offers more protection against the inherent unpredictability in the

data as it covers a wider range of possible values.

Slimmer Range with 95% Confidence:

 A 95% confidence interval, however, requires less assurance. It covers a smaller

range of values yet maintains a high degree of confidence. While the population
Confidence Interval 4

parameter estimate is more accurate with this smaller range than with the 99%

interval, the confidence level is somewhat lower.

Interpretation Implications:

Confidence vs. Accuracy:

 The comparison of the 95% and 99% confidence intervals makes clear the trade-off

between confidence and accuracy. Whereas a larger interval denotes more confidence

but lower accuracy, a smaller interval denotes better precision but lower confidence

(Simundic, 2008).

 Based on the particular study topic, the variability of the data, and the implications of

any estimating mistakes, researchers must carefully weigh the trade-off between

accuracy and confidence.

To summarise, confidence intervals provide significant insights into the accuracy and

variability of data. The width of the interval and the degree of confidence in the population

parameter estimate are determined by the selected confidence level.

Confidence Interval 5

References

Hazra, A. (2017). Using the confidence interval confidently. Journal of thoracic

disease, 9(10), 4125.

Cumming, G. (2013). Understanding the new statistics: Effect sizes, confidence intervals,

and meta-analysis. Routledge.

Simundic, A. M. (2008). Confidence interval. Biochemia Medica, 18(2), 154-161.