1st Speaker

1. Madam Speaker, ladies and gentlemen, esteemed judges, honourable members of the
government, good afternoon. I stand before you today to oppose the motion tabled
before this parliament, "This house believes that Jamaica runs the risk of over-tourism,
posing a threat to the environment and inflating land prices in coastal areas."
2. We have listened to the prime minister and accepted some of the definitions provided
by the government, but we offer better definitions for the key terms "over-tourism" and
"runs the risk." Overtourism is defined by the United Nations World Tourism
Organization as exceeding the maximum number of people that may visit a tourist
destination at the same time, destroying the physical, economic, and sociocultural
environment, and an unacceptable decrease in the quality of visitors’ satisfaction.
3. The term "runs the risk" is defined according to The Cambridge Dictionary as “to do
something although something bad might happen because of it.”
4. Madam Speaker, we can now restate the motion to read that "this house believes
Jamaica does not run the risk of exceeding the maximum number of people that may
visit a tourist destination at the same time, posing a threat to the environment and
inflating land prices in coastal areas."
5. Esteemed judges, As the opposition leader, I will do what the prime minister did not do,
which is a proper risk assessment. I will outline how over-tourism ought to be measured,
and I, Madam Speaker, will definitively show that Jamaica is not currently experiencing
over-tourism. The second opposition speaker will address the threats to the
environment. The third opposition speaker will speak about how the main factor
relevant to tourism and rising house prices can be dealt with.
6. Madam Speaker, esteemed Members of the government, and distinguished Judges, I
draw a parallel between over-tourism in a country and obesity in the human body,
likening it to a lifestyle disease. Just as the body consumes calories, Jamaica consumes
tourists. And just as the rapid and prolonged overconsumption of calories can lead to
obesity, the rapid and prolonged growth in tourist arrivals can lead to over-tourism.
7. Much like a doctor measure your Body Mass Index to assess obesity risk, the main way
to measure over-tourism, according to a 2021 study titled "Measuring Overtourism: A
Necessary Tool for Landscape Planning," is through the tourist arrivals to population
ratio. Madam Speaker, there cannot be a claim of over-tourism without this
measurement.
8. If the government is unwilling to adequately measure this risk, I, as the opposition
leader, will step in as the 'good doctor' to measure the risk of over-tourism for Jamaica.
9. Jamaica, with a population of approximately 2.8 million, welcomed 4.23 million tourists
in 2023, resulting in a tourist-to-population ratio of 1.51. That’s only 1 or 2 tourist
arrivals for every Jamaican per year. Comparatively, the same 2021 study titled
Measuring Overtourism suggests that a tourist destination enters the realm of over-
tourism when its tourist-to-population ratio exceeds 5 to 1, as seen in Barcelona, Spain.
 1st Speaker

Jamaica's ratio is well below this threshold, indicating that overtourism is not an
immediate concern. Over the past decade (excluding 2020 to 2022 due to COVID-19),
Jamaica has experienced an average yearly tourist arrival growth rate of between 4.73%
by our calculations. But if we work with the growth rate given by Prof. Lloyd Waller,
Executive Director of Global Tourism Resilience and Crisis Management Centre, the PRE-
COVID projected growth rate for 2020 was only 3 to 4 per cent, as reported in his
vision2030 blog Re-imagining the tourism sector in Jamaica.
10. Madam Speaker, even at 5% growth per year, it will take approximately 24 and a half
years for Jamaica to reach a 5 to 1 tourist-to-citizen ratio, like where Barcelona stands
today. Compared with Barbados and Aruba, where the ratios are 5 to 1 and 18.4 to 1
respectively, Madam Speaker, I assess that Jamaica's tourist-to-population ratio
indicates that we are not currently facing the threat of over-tourism and our rate of
growth means we can manage.
11. Members of the government, not just about the numbers, its Jamaica’s capacity as well.
Madam Speaker, we have the capacity and by capacity I don’t just mean hotel rooms, I
mean improved infrastructure, sustainable tourism practices, the resilience of natural
ecosystems, the tolerance of local communities and proper regulations. Jamaica has
shown remarkable resilience in managing increases in tourist arrivals. Jamaica has
invested in waste management, new highways, roads, and healthcare facilities.
Referencing the JIS publication dated March 19, 2018, titled "Infrastructure
Development Key to Tourism’s Sustainability," it highlights the Tourism Enhancement
Fund's $279 million Falmouth Streetscape Project, improving sidewalks, drainage,
lighting, and traffic management. In another JIS publication, dated October 3, 2020, the
title says it all, “Tourism Corridor Between St. Thomas and Portland has Untapped
Potential”. As a good doctor, it is my firm diagnosis that Jamaica can grow naturally and
intentionally at of current rate of growth without triggering overtourism.
12. I ask the government, if we are so near to overtourism where are the indicators? The
study was published on December 29, 2021, titled: “Detecting Early Signs of
Overtourism: Bringing Together Indicators of Tourism Development with Data Fusion”
identified the indicators of over-tourism to include industry performance, its economic
impacts, and indirect measures related to quality of life. There MUST be social and
quality of life indicators. Where are the complaints and protests tourists like in Venice
and Barcelona? On your last visit to Devon House, where Jamaicans were so
overwhelmed by foreigners that they couldn’t get any ice cream? Are Jamaicans being
turned away from Dunn’s River in favour of foreigners? Where is the evidence of cultural
deterioration?
13. As the good doctor, I say that our tourist diet is good, the risk of over-tourism is not
great and can be mitigated. We have more than enough time to employ strategies to
grow our tourism sustainably and healthily.
1st Speaker

In opposition to the motion regarding the perceived risk of over-tourism in Jamaica, the
speaker delivers a comprehensive rebuttal, grounded in a meticulous assessment of the
situation. Here are the key points highlighted:

1. Measurement of Over-tourism: The speaker asserts that over-tourism should be

evaluated through the tourist-to-population ratio, citing a study that sets a threshold for
concern. They argue that Jamaica's current ratio falls significantly below this critical
threshold, indicating that the island nation is not immediately threatened by over-
tourism.

2. **Capacity for Management**: They emphasize Jamaica's capacity to manage

tourism growth effectively. This capacity extends beyond mere infrastructure,
encompassing sustainable tourism practices, ecosystem resilience, community
tolerance, and regulatory frameworks. The speaker highlights investments in
infrastructure, such as the Falmouth Streetscape Project, as evidence of Jamaica's
proactive approach to accommodate increasing tourist numbers while ensuring the
sustainability of its tourism sector.

3. Lack of Indicators: The speaker challenges the absence of clear indicators of over-
tourism in Jamaica. They question the purported risks, such as economic impacts and
quality-of-life concerns, emphasizing the lack of observable signs such as protests or
cultural deterioration typically associated with over-tourism in other destinations.

In summary, the speaker contends that Jamaica's current tourist landscape does not
indicate an imminent threat of over-tourism. They argue that with strategic planning and
sustainable practices, Jamaica can continue to cultivate its tourism industry in a healthy
and manageable manner.