See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/291353215

Urbanization and Traffic Control in Kampala

Article · January 2016

CITATIONS READS

0 4,090

1 author:

Lwanga Newton
Makerere University
9 PUBLICATIONS 33 CITATIONS

SEE PROFILE

All content following this page was uploaded by Lwanga Newton on 22 January 2016.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

 Urbanization and Traffic Control in Kampala

Newton Lwanga
2015/HD05/674U, 215021995
Makerere University
College of Computing & Informatics Sciences,
Kampala, Uganda
lwanganewton@gmail.com

Abstract. Economic development and urbanization poses numerous challenges to

transportation systems such as traffic congestion and environmental health risks. Kampala
the capital city of Uganda, faces increasing urban planning problems such as: traffic
congestion; air pollution; traffic safety; and land use planning; among others.
Urbanization attracts more people to the city, as population continues to increase, the
limited capacity of existing transport infrastructure is stretched and it becomes a
constraint to cope with the public demand for travel. Therefore, even though the original
goal is to reduce traffic congestion, the outcome is a feedback loop which rather serve to
reinforce the problem. A requirement that makes it imperative to deal with the traffic
congestion and associated relationships head-on.
This paper aims to provide a system dynamics perspective on the traffic congestion and
air pollution problems in Kampala. We identify the key drivers, investigate and model the
cause and effect relationships of traffic congestion and its associated air pollution using
causal loop, and Stock and flow diagrams. The paper further suggests mechanisms by
which the associated challenges with the road transport in the city of Kampala can be
addressed.

KEY WORDS: Urbanisation, Traffic Control, Economic Development, Congestion.

1. Introduction

Economic development and urbanization poses numerous challenges to transportation systems such as
traffic congestion and environmental health risks. However, sustainability dictates that the present
generation should not compromise the capacity of future generations to meet their needs. The
connection between traffic congestion and air pollution has received much attention in sustainable
development discourse.

As Kampala dwellers continue to grapple with the choking and ever-worsening traffic congestion in the
city, Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) says it is pursuing measures to solve one of the city’s
biggest headaches [1, 3]. The KCCA director for physical planning, says the radial pattern of the road
network, where roads converge at one point in the city centre without ring roads to offset traffic that
may have no business in the city centre encourages congestion. Related to this is the present location of
transportation terminals (taxi and bus parks) in the city centre, creating a convergence zone that attracts
traffic jams, poor urban planning, traffic congestion due to limited and poor road infrastructure in the
city, continued misunderstandings between the technical and political leaders of the city. This is
worsened by poor connectivity and accessibility in the periphery of the city [1, 2, 3].

Furthermore, [3] The Director says the general condition of the roads, most of which are potholed,
absence of properly signalized intersections, and poor interconnections and interchanges, the land use
pattern contributes to traffic congestion, citing markets and schools, which tend to be located in the city
centre instead of residential areas. The business community in Kampala particularly feels the pinch, as
time spent in traffic jams means business and money lost. [3] As traffic congestion rises, also the
environmental impact due to traffic congestion. Air quality in some parts of Kampala become a health
risk due to the levels of toxic substances emitted from exhausts of motor vehicles together with dust
caused by the many cars along the poor roads.

Despite the setbacks, the last four and a half years of KCCA have brought a series of changes that are
impacting Kampala City. These have improved the physical conditions in the city and also brought hope
and higher expectations in Ugandans especially the city dwellers [3]. In 2014, KCCA reaffirmed its
commitment to transforming Kampala into a vibrant, attractive and sustainable city that will bring pride
to residents, pleasure to the guests and unwavering hope to the future generation. [2, 3] KCCA plans to
unveil a master plan aimed at solving the traffic problem in Kampala. The plan, which will address
issues of accessibility and connectivity in the metropolitan area, proposes, among other things,
improvement of the entire road network through upgrading and reconstruction of existing roads, and
construction of more ring roads. There are also plans to increase the number of transport terminals in the
periphery of the city; promote a parking tower in the city to reduce on crowded street parking; establish
a no-boda boda zone area; and to open up satellite commercial centres.

In this paper, the goal was to stimulate public transport use in Kampala while decreasing the related
risks. System dynamics was applied to identify related drivers, causes and effects of traffic problem in
Kampala city. Through causal loop and stock and flow diagrams, alternatives were proposed to limit the
effectiveness of negative loops.
2. Objective

To provide a system dynamics perspective on the traffic congestion and air pollution problems in
Kampala. Through identifying the key drivers and modelling the cause and effect relationships of traffic
congestion using causal loop, and stock and flow diagrams.

3. Problem Description

Rapid urbanization is one of the reasons for the poor state of public transportation. As population
continues to increase and as the city continues to stretch, more people live and work in the city and
make more trips to, from and within the city. Consequently, the limited capacity of existing transport
infrastructure is over stretched and thus, it becomes a constraint to cope with the public demand for
travel. In Kampala, the urban transport system is characterized by congested central areas of the city,
poor quality of service from public transport operators, high exposure to road accidents and poor
environmental standards resulting from air pollution. This is seen in long commuting times and journey
delays, lengthy waiting times for public transport both at and between terminals and poor air quality in
some parts of the city. It is also known during peak hours of the day (early morning & evening hours)
and festive seasons, that individuals using public transit (mini vans and taxis) often have to disembark
and continue their journey either on foot or board a motorcycle commonly known as ‘Boda-Boda’
because it is efficient than remaining in public vehicles caught in stagnant traffic.

Urbanization attracts more people to the city, as population continues to increase, the limited capacity of
existing transport infrastructure is stretched and it becomes a constraint to cope with the public demand
for travel. This mounts pressure to KCCA to construct more roads. As a feedback response to the
decreased congestion due to establishment of more roads, driving on the roads becomes more attractive
resulting in more people purchasing and driving private cars. This leads to corresponding increase in the
average trip length due to increased number of private cars on the roads. There is a delay in investment
in private vehicles arising from the fact that it takes a while for individuals to change their lifestyles and
also because most individuals cannot afford to buy cars when income levels are low. Therefore, the shift
from public transport to personal cars arising from improved income levels is gradual. Eventually, the
number of cars in Kampala city increases, which in turn leads to an increase in traffic volume. On the
other hand, construction of new roads in the city, and the perceived reduced congestion in the city due
to the improved road infrastructure causes an influx of immigrants from the rural areas to the city. This
in turn increases the population in the city. Long average travel time causes congestion and thus makes
people to shun the city center resulting in a reduction on the total population in the city.

By 2010 the total population of Kampala was estimated to be 1,659,600 people with a growth rate of
about 2% [5]. A total of 1,500 kilometres (930 mi) of roads were improved to bituminous surface by
2010. As the city stretches, some existing small roads that exit traffic from the city are disabled for
erecting structures for business activities. For the period between 2010 and 2014, it is estimated that the
rate at which these minor roads are closed for other developments is 1% of the total roads in the city. [2,
4, 5] As traffic in the city increases, the available limited roads are overwhelmed and often breakdown
affecting traffic flow. The rate at which roads in the city breakdown and thus completely unusable is
estimated to be at 0.9% of the total roads in the city. To counter these challenges, KCCA through its
planning Directorate, it is obliged to repair these broken roads and construction of new ones to
accommodate the growing traffic. The rate at which city roads are repaired and construction of new
roads is estimated at 1.5% and 3% respectively, of the roads in the city. Figure 2 models the dynamics
of Kampala road network for the period from 2010 to 2020.
4. Causal Loop Diagram

The CLD resulting from modelling the Kampala traffic problem represents an Attractiveness Principle
structure with multiple limits, all of which cannot be addressed equally. A growing action encounters
multiple “Limits to Growth” and addressing one limit puts more pressure on other limits.
The Reinforcing Loop that drives this structure consists of a growing action which produces results.
These results then foster even more growing action. The results produced is an element of Balancing
Loops, which in time inhibit further results. This can be seen the figure 1 below.

Figure 1: A CLD representing Urbanization & Traffic Control in Kampala.

5. Reference Modes

The total population of vehicles in Kampala by 2010 was estimated to be about 292,767 with a growth
rate (importation of new vehicles into the city and other people with vehicles who come to the city
annually) of 9.43% of the total number of vehicles in the city. During the course of the year, some of the
vehicles in the city are sold off to other parts of the country or outside the country, the rate at which
these vehicles are sold off is estimated at 3.5%, in the same way vehicles breakdown at the rate of 1.1%.
Figure 2 presents a reference mode for the number of Vehicles in Kampala City for the period from
2010 to 2020. The model estimates the total number of vehicles is the city to be about 469,221 vehicles
by 2020. By 2010 there were a total of 1,500 kilometres of roads in Kampala. The rate at which city
roads are repaired and construction of new roads is estimated at 1.5% and 3% respectively, of the roads
in the city. Figure 3 presents a reference mode for the road network for Kampala City for the period
from 2010 to 2020. It shows the total number of roads in the city by 2020 to be about
Figure 2: Graph showing the growths of road network in Kampala City

Figure 3: Presents a reference mode for the road network for Kampala City for the period from
2010 to 2020
6. Stock and Flow Diagrams

Figure 4: stocks and flow diagram showing the road network in Kampala city with the associated
factors that lead to increase and reduction of roads.

Figure 3 models the dynamics of vehicles in Kampala city for the period from 2010 to 2020.
 7. Recommendations

We recommend the following for the improvement of the transport network system in Kampala.
 Planning the management of the transport system and land use to best address the access needs
for people, goods and services in the city.
 Introduce and put to effective use of traffic management tools and equipment: signals,
channelization, and parking, among others.
 Identify main potential cycling routes that will connect major residential locations to main and
city centers.
 For every new or reconstructed urban road, it should include proper walkways.
 Proper and effective enforcement of traffic laws to ensure proper use of the available roads.

8. Conclusion

In this paper, we provided a system dynamics perspective on the traffic congestion and air pollution
problems in Kampala. We identified the key drivers and modelled the cause and effect relationships of
traffic congestion using causal loop, and Stock and flow diagrams. The paper further suggested
mechanisms by which the associated challenges with the road transport in the city of Kampala can be
addressed.

Acknowledgments
We thank Dr. Agnes Rwashana who challenged us to write a paper of this nature. The process has truly
equipped us with knowledge to understand and model complex systems, using causal loop diagrams and
stock and flow diagrams, and it has improved our research and writing skills.

References

[1] KCCA. (2015). STRATEGIC PLAN 2014/15-2018/19. Laying the Foundation for Kampala City
Transformation. Retrieved from http://www.kcca.go.ug/uploads/KCCA_STRATEGI_PLAN_2015-2016.pdf
[2] KCCA. (2012). Presentation of the proposed transport system in
the new Kampala Physical Development Plan. Retrieved from http://www.kcca.go.ug/
[3] Siraje, L. (2012, October 12). KCCA now set to tackle Kampala’s messy traffic. The Observer. Retrieved from
http://observer.ug/
[4] KCCA. (2013, February 6). Statement on the issues of Kampala Capital City Authority. Retrieved from
http://www.kcca.go.ug/uploads/Statement.pdf
[5] CIA World Factbook. (2014). Uganda Demographics Profile 2014. Retrieved from
http://www.indexmundi.com/uganda/demographics_profile.html
[6] UGANDA BUREAU OF STATISTICS. (2010). 2010 STATISTICAL ABSTRACT. Retrieved From
http://www.ubos.org/onlinefiles/uploads/ubos/pdf%20documents/abstracts/Statistical%20Abstract%202010.pdf

View publication stats