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Prediction of Online Shopper's Purchasing Intention Using Binary Logistic

Regression, Decision Tree, and Random Forest

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DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16567.55209

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Prediction of Online Shopper’s Purchasing Intention Using
Binary Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, and Random
Forest
Muhammad Adlansyah Muda[1], Radha Ayu Aswari[2], Muhammad Ahsan[3]
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Data Analytics, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology
Arief Rahman Hakim Street, Surabaya 60111 Indonesia
adlansyahmuda@gmail.com[1], radhaayu@gmail.com[2]
ABSTRACT
Online shopping is becoming a trend in recent year.
Compared to the physical stores, customers prefer do online
shopping, mainly because people find it convenient and easy
to bargain shop from the comfort of their home or office.
Online shop platform can provide many products which
fulfill our needs. People only need internet service and
digital payment, after that the product will deliver to their
house of office. Nowadays online shopping is one of people
daily activity and help them to save time and energy. The
information provided by the visits of users is fed to machine
learning classification algorithms to build a predicting
model. We use three classification methods, binary logistic
regression, decision tree and random forest. In the process
of refining the model and making it better to provide more
insightful results, oversampling and feature selection pre-
processing steps are employed. The biggest probability of
gaining revenue are new visitor, visitors who has low bounce
rate, month sales in November and May, visitor who spent
more times in product related. The best model for this paper
is random forest using 5-fold cross-validation with 88,21%
accuracy.
Keywords—Cross Validation, Feature Selection, Online
Shopping, Oversampling, Pre-processing
I. INTRODUCTION
O
nline shopping is becoming a trend in recent
year. Burdened by expensive store leases,
unprofitable markets and continuing
disruption from online shopping, Forever 21 will close
200 stores [1]. Compared to the physical stores,
customers prefer do online shopping, mainly because
people find it convenient and easy to bargain shop from
the comfort of their home or office. Online shop platform
can provide many products which fulfill our needs.
People only need internet service and digital payment,
after that the product will deliver to their house of office.
Consumers can get full information about the product
with its reviews being passed by the existing users. If they
want to buy a product, they are no longer limited to
asking their friends and families because there are many
products reviews on the web which gives opinions of the
existing users of the product.
There are some advantages of online shopping are
save the time, save energy, 24/7 availability, and
comparison of prices. In 2018, an estimated 1.8 billion
people worldwide purchase goods online. During the
same year, global e-retail sales amounted to 2.8 trillion
U.S. dollars and projections show a growth of up to 4.8
trillion
U.S. dollars by 2021 [2]. The instance of online shopping
platforms are amazon, Alibaba, Tokopedia, Rakuten, etc.
On the special day like Christmas, valentine, summer
1
holiday, online shopping day, etc. E-commers offer some
discount, flash sale and other promotion to persuade the
customers buying the products. The promotion day will
increase the customer intention in online shopping.
Nowadays online shopping is one of people daily activity
and help them to save time and energy.
In this paper, we propose to analyst the factors of
online shopper intention and predict the decision of online
shopping. The dataset tells about online shops’ customer
behavior which influence customer end with shopping.
We use three classification methods, binary logistic
regression, decision tree and random forest. For the
model we define
0 for false revenue and 1 for the true revenue. The
performance of the classification algorithms used in this
paper is compared using accuracy. We hope this paper
will help the online shop platforms to find their strategy
to increase the revenue.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
There are a number of literature review to achieve
the proposes of the research. The literature review used in
this research is as follows.
A. Data Cleaning
Real word data tend to be incomplete, noisy, and
inconsistent. Data cleaning (or data cleansing) routines
attempt to fill in missing values, smooth out noise while
identifying outliers, and correct inconsistencies in the
data.
1. Missing Values
Missing values are endemic in real world datasets.
There are 6 methods how to resolve missing values is as
follows [3].
a. Ignore the tuple
This is usually done when the class label is missing
(assuming the mining task involves classification). This
method is not very effective, unless the tuple contains
several attributes with missing values.
b. Fill in the missing value manually
In general, this approach is time consuming and
may not be feasible given a large data set with many
missing values.
c. Use a global constant to fill in the missing value
Replace all missing attribute values by the same
constant such as a label like “Unknown” or −∞.
d. Use a measure of central tendency for the attribute
For normal (symmetric) data distributions, the mean
can be used, while skewed data distribution should
employ the median.
e. Use the attribute mean or median for all samples
belonging to the same class as the given tuple
 2
If the data distribution for a given class is normal,
n
the mean can be used. But, if the data distribution for a
 x x
2

given class if skewed, the median value is a better choice. i

(3)
f. Use the most probable value to fill in the missing s  s2  i 1

value
This may be determined with regression, inference
based tools using a Bayesian formalism, or decision tree
induction.
2. Outlier Detection
One class classification is often called outlier (or
novelty) detection because the learning algorithm is being
used to differentiate between data that appears normal and
abnormal with respect to the distribution of the training
data [4]. One of method to outlier detection is looking
outlier plot at boxplot. It should be noted that the boxplot
rule for detecting outliers has been criticized on the
grounds that it might declare too many points outliers
when there is skewness. More precisely, if a distribution
is skewed to the right, among the larger values that are
observed, too many might be declared outliers [5].
B. Descriptive Statistics
Descriptive statistics is a primary step to organize
the information and extract a descriptive summary that
highlights its salient features.
1. Measures of Center
The most important aspect of studying the
distribution of a sample of measurements is locating the
position of a central value about which the measurements
are distributed. The two most commonly used indicators
of center are the mean and the median [6].
The sample mean of a set of n measurements 𝑥1, 𝑥2,
..., 𝑥𝑛 is the sum of these measurements divided by n. The
sample mean is denoted by 𝑥̅.
n between the predictor variable and the response variable.
x i
(1)
x  i 1
n1
C. Feature Selection
Roughly speaking, feature selection methods are
applied in one of three conceptual frameworks: the filter
model, the wrapper model, and embedded methods. These
three basic families differ in how the learning algorithm is
incorporated in evaluating and selecting features. In the
filter model the selection of features is done as a
preprocessing activity, without trying to optimize the
performance of any specific data mining technique
directly. This is usually achieved through an (ad hoc)
evaluation function using a search method in order to
select a subset of features that maximizes this function.
Performing an exhaustive search is usually intractable due
to the large number of initial features. Therefore, different
methods may apply a variety of search heuristics.
Wrapper methods select features by “wrapping” the
serach around the selected learning algorithm and
evaluate feature subsets based on the learning
performance of the data mining technique for each
candidate feature subset. The main drawback of this
approach is its computational complexity. Finally,
embedded methods incorporate feature search and the
learning algorithm into a single optimization problem
formulation. When the number of samples and
dimensions becomes very large, the filter approach is
usually a choice due to its computational efficiency and
neutral bias toward any learning methodology [7].
D. Chi-Squared Test of Independence
Chi-Squared test is used to check relationship
The I × J contingency table that cross-classifies n subjects
is as follows.

n Table 1 Contingency Table for I × J

The sample median of a set of n measurements 𝑥1, Variable 2
Variable 1 1 2 ⋯ J Total
𝑥2, ..., 𝑥𝑛 is the middle value when the measurements are 𝑛11 𝑛12 𝑛1𝐽 𝑛1.
1 ⋯
arranged from smallest to largest. 𝑛21 𝑛22 𝑛2𝐽 𝑛2.
2 ⋯
2. Measures of Variation ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮
Besides location the center of the data, any I 𝑛𝐼1 𝑛12 ⋯ 𝑛𝐼𝐽 𝑛𝐼.
descriptive study of data must numerically measure the Total 𝑛.1 𝑛.2 ⋯ 𝑛.𝐽 𝑛..
extent of variation around the center. Two data sets may
Hypothesis:
exhibit similar positions of center but may be remarkably
different with respect to variability. To obtain a measure H$ ∶ There is no relationship between two variables
of spread, called the sample variance is constructed by H1 ∶ There is a relationship between two variables
adding
the squared deviations and dividing the total by the Statistical Test:
  
 n e  
2

number of observationsn minus one [6].  

2
I J
2
ij ij (4)

 x i
x (2) i 1 e
j 1  ij
2
s  i 1
Where 
n1
To obtain a measure of variability in the same unit ni. 
eij  n
.j
as the data, we take the positive square root of the
variance, called the sample standard deviation. The n..
standard deviation rather than the variance serves as a Information:
basic measure
of variability. 𝑛i. = total observation frequency for line i
𝑛.j = total observation frequency for column j
𝑛ij = observation value at line i and column j
𝑒ij = expectation value at line i and column j

Rejection Area: Reject H$, if 𝜒2 is greater than
𝜒(21)𝛼)(𝐼)1)(𝐽)1) [8].
E. Multicollinearity Test
Multicollinearity testing serves to minimize the
error value on the resulting estimate. This
multicollinearity test is an assumption that must be
fulfilled in regression. If there is a high correlation
between the predictor variables, it will make a very large
error in the resulting estimate. Multicollinearity testing
can be detected by the value of Variance Inflation Factors
(VIF) [9]. VIF values greater than 5 indicate a correlation
between the predictor variables [10]. VIF value can be
calculated with the following formula.
1 Chi-square value computed for the expected and
VIFk (5)
 1  R2
k
Where
SSR
 kR  
2 2   Yˆ  Y
i
 Y  Y 
2
SST i generates many classifiers and aggregates their results.
Information:
𝑘 = number of predictor variable
𝑅𝑘2 = coefficient of determination between the j-th
predictor variable with other predictor variables
𝑆𝑆𝑅 = sum of square regression
𝑆𝑆𝑇 = sum of square total
F. Decision Tree
In principle, decision trees are used to predict the
membership of objects to different categories (classes),
taking into account the values that correspond to their
attributes (predictor variables) [11]. The flexibility of this
technique makes it particularly attractive, especially
because it presents the advantage of a very suggestive
visualization (a ‘tree’ which synthetically summarizes the
classification). Although decision trees are not so
widespread in the pattern recognition field from a
probabilistic statistical point of view, they are widely used
in other domains such as, for instance, medicine
(diagnosis), computer science (data structures), botany
(classification), psychology (behavioral decision theory),
etc. The general way of inducing a decision tree
according to Hunt’s algorithm lies in the following steps
[12]:
1. Denote by 𝐷𝑡 the set of training objects (Data) that
reach node t.
2. If 𝐷𝑡 is an empty set, the t is a terminal node (a leaf
node), labeled by the class Φ𝑡.
3. If 𝐷𝑡 contains objects that belong to the same class
𝐶𝑡, the t is also a leaf node, labeled as 𝐶𝑡.
4. If 𝐷𝑡 contains objects that belong to more than one
class, then we use an attribute test to split the objects
into smaller subsets.
Here the most commonly used in decision tree
method are:
1. The GINI (impurity) index, used mainly in CART
(C&RT) and SPRINT algorithms, represents a
measure of how often a randomly chosen object
from the training dataset could be incorrectly labeled
if it were randomly labeled according to the
distribution of labels in the dataset. As an impurity
measure, it
3
at a node. Conversely, it reaches its maximum value
when class sizes at the node are equal [13].
2. The entropy (impurity), used mainly in ID3, C4.5
and C5.0, is based on selecting the splitting point
that maximizes the information gain (i.e., maximum
entropy reduction) (idem). Similarly, the minimum
value is zero, when all records belong to one class,
implying most information.
3. The misclassification measure, based on
classification error as its name suggest, is sometimes
used to measure the node ‘impurity’ (idem). Once
again, the minimum value is zero, when all records
belong to one class, implying most information.
4. Chi-square measure, which is similar to the standard
observed classifications [14].
5. G-square measure, which is similar to the
maximum- likelihood Chi-square (idem).
G. Random Forest
Random forest is an ensemble learner, a method that
RF will create multiple classification and regression
(CART)
trees, each trained on bootstrap sample of the original
training data and searches across a randomly selected
subset of input variables to determine the split. CARTs
are binary decision trees that are constructed by splitting
the data in a node into child nodes repeatedly, starting
with the root node that contains the whole learning
sample [15]. Each tree in RF will cast a vote for some
input x, then the output of the classifier is determined by
majority voting of the trees. RF can handle high
dimensional data and use a large number of trees in the
ensemble. Some important features of RF are [16]:
1. It has an effective method for estimating missing
data.
2. It has a method, weighted random forest (WRF), for
balancing error in imbalanced data.
3. It estimates the importance of variables used in the
classification.
H. Logistic Regression
The difference between simple linear regression and
logistic regression is the response variable. Logistic
regression is one of method that can be used to find the
relationship between response variables that are
dichotomous (nominal or ordinal scale with two
categories) or polychotomous (normal or ordinal scale
with more than two categories) with one or more
predictor variables. While the response variables is
continuous or categorical [8].
1. Binary Logistic Regression
Binary logistic regression is a data analysis method
used to find the relationship between the binary or
dichotomous response variable (𝑦) with polycotomous
predictor variable (𝑥) [9]. The outcome of the response
variable consists of 2 categories, namely “success” and
“failed” which is denoted by 𝑦 = 1 (success) and 𝑦 = 0
(failed). In such circumstances, the response variable
follows the Bernoulli distribution for every single
observation. The probability function for each
observation is given as follows.
 4
reaches a value of zero when only one class is f  y    1  
y
(6)
present

1 y
 5
Where if 𝑦 = 0 then 𝑓(𝑦) = 1 − 𝜋 and if 𝑦 = 1 then Then
𝑓(𝑦) = 𝜋. The logistic regression function can be written n n
as follows.
 y x   x ˆ  x i ij ij i
(10)
0
   x …  x  i 1 i 1

  x e 0 1 1 p p

(7) Estimates of variance and covariance are developed

    x …  x 
1e 0 1 1 p p through the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation)
A transformation of 𝜋(𝑥) that is central of logistic theory of the parameter coefficients [9]. The theory states
regression. This transformation is defined in terms of 𝜋(𝑥) that the estimated covariance variance is obtained through
is as follows. the second derivative of L(𝛽).

g  x      x  L  n

ln 
1 x
  0  1 x1 …   (8)    x x   x 1    x 
ij iu i i

 i 1

 j  u
p
xp
2. Parameter Estimation The covariance variance matrix based on parameter
Parameter estimation in logistic regression are estimation is obtained through the inverse matrix and
carried out using the Maximum Likelihood method. The given as follows.
method estimates the parameter 𝛽 by maximizing the
Cov  ˆ   x Diag ˆ i x  1  ˆ  x  x
1
T
i

likelihood function and requires that the data must follow Where
a certain distribution. In logistic regression, each
observation follows the Bernoulli distribution so that its  x1 x
1 !
!
1 
x
x   11
T
likelihood function can be determined. If 𝑥i and 𝑦i are 21 n1

pairs
of independent variables and bound to i-th observations ⁝ ⁝ ⁝  ⁝
and it is assumed that each pair of observations is  
independent of the other observation pairs, with i = 1, 2,  x1k x2 k ! xnk 
..., n then the probability function for each pair is as
follows. Diag ˆ  xi  1 ˆ  xi    is a diagonal matrix (𝑛 ×
𝑛)
 x     x  1    x with the main diagonal is ˆ  x  1 ˆ  x    . The
yi
f (9)

1 yi
SE>𝛽? @
i i i
 i i 
Where estimator will be used in the parameter estimation testing
 p 
  j xj  stage. To get the estimated value of 𝛽 from the first

x  e
 j 0  derivative of the non-linear L(𝛽) function, the Newton
i
Raphson iteration method is used. The equation used is as
 p

follows.
1e
  j xj 
j 0
     1  

Each pair of observations is assumed to be independent,

so that the likelihood function is a combination of the 
t 
t
 H  t
 q
t
(11)
Where 1
t t 
t 
distribution functions of each pair as follows. t   L    L    L    
n n
q  , ,… ,

l    f  x      x  1    x   
yi
i i i  K 
 
0 1


1 yi
h
i 1 i 1
     xi  i
y
 h11 ! h1k 

12

  1  x   
ln
  

  1   
 
 n
xi   t  h !
  
i
21 22 2
 H   
e
n
i 1  ⁝ ⁝ 
⁝ h⁝
 i 1 h 

 ! h 
 n  p 1
   y x  
p n
h h
x 
 
j ij i ij j k1 k2 kk

   1  e
j
 j 0    3. Parameter Estimation Testing
0  e
i 0

 
 i 1

After estimating the parameters obtained, then
   
 6
The likelihood function is more easily maximized in the testing the significance of the coefficient 𝛽 is carried out
form of ln 𝑙(𝛽) and expressed as L(𝛽). simultaneously with the simultaneous testing hypothesis as
L     ln l    follows.
H$ : 𝛽1 = 𝛽2 = ⋯ = 𝛽𝑝 = 0
p n n   x  H : There is at least one 𝛽 ≠ 0 ; j = 1, 2, ..., p
 
p

   y ix ij   j   ln 1 
1 j
 j
Statistical Test:

0 j ij

e 
j 0  i 1 
n1 n0
i 1
  n  n 
The maximum of 𝛽 value is obtained through the
 n   n 
1 0

derivative of L(𝛽) to 𝛽 and the result is equal to zero. (12)

G  2 ln n
    ˆ 1  ˆ 
i

x yi
p
j ij 1 y 

n n

L

  yx  x i ij ij e j 0

p  Where i 1
i i


j i 1
i 1
 x j ij

1e 
j 0
 7

n1  
n
yi n The accuracy value is a measure of how well a
i 1 n0   1  yi  n  n1  n classifier distinguishes both positive and negative cases
i 1 [19]. The AUC shows the ability of classifier to prevent
The G statistical test is a Likelihood Ratio Test where the false classification. It measures the area under Receiver
G value follows the Chi-Squared distribution, so H$ is Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, which is a two-
rejected if G > 𝜒22𝛼3 ,𝑣6 with v degree of freedom is the dimensional plot of the sensitivity (the measure of how
2
number of parameters in the model without 𝛽$. well a classifier distinguishes positive cases) versus
When the simultaneous test doesn’t produce specificity (the measure of how well a classifier
significant results, then it tested the significance of the distinguishes negative cases) at various discrimination
coefficient 𝛽 partially on the response variable by thresholds [20].
comparing the maximum likelihood yield parameters, the G. Online Shop
alleged 𝛽 with standard error parameter. The partial Online shopping is a form of electronic commerce
testing hypothesis is as follows. which allows consumers to directly buy goods or services
H$ : 𝛽j = 0 from a seller over the internet using a web browser. There
H1 : 𝛽j ≠ 0 ; j = 1, 2, ..., p are many reasons why people shop online. Empirical
research shows that convenient of the internet is one of
Statistical Test: the impacts on consumer’s willingness to buy online [21].
The
2
ˆj
W    internet has made the data accessing easier, so given

2
 (13) customers rarely have a chance to touch and feel product
 SE   j  
ˆ and service online before they make decision, online
The W statistical test follows the Chi-Squared sellers normally provide more product information that
distribution,
so H$ is rejected if W > 𝜒2 𝛼 with v degree of freedom customers can use making a purchase [22]. E-commerce
2 3 ,𝑣6 2 has made a transaction easier than it was and online stores
or the number of predictors. offer consumers benefits by providing more variety of
I. Performance Evaluation of Classifiers products and services that they can choose from [23].
According to [17] evaluation of classification
procedure is an evaluation that looks at the possibility of III. METHODOLOGY
misclassification made by a classification function. The The methodology will explain the steps from the
measure used is Apparent Error Rate (APER). APER analysis and the variable that we will use for the model.
value by the classification function. The determination of
A. Data Source
classification can be seen from Table 2. In Table 2, The data explain about the online shopper’s
subjects are classified into two groups namely 𝜋1 and 𝜋2 intention. There are 12330 observation and 18 variables,
as follows. we will split the data 70% for training data and 30 % for
Table 2 Classification Table. testing data to make the prediction. The data was get from
Observation Estimate https://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/datasets/Online+ShoppersP
Results 𝜋1 𝜋2 urchasing+Intention+Dataset.
𝑦1 𝑛11 𝑛12
𝑦2 𝑛21 𝑛22 B. Variable
In this paper we use some variables that we can see
Information:
in the table 3.
𝑛11 = number of subjects from 𝑦1 was correctly classified
Table 3 Variable for The Analysis.
as 𝜋1. Variable Variable Name Scale
𝑛12 = number of subjects from 𝑦1 was incorrectly
classified as 𝜋2 . 1 = Revenue True Nominal
𝑛21 = number of subjects from 𝑦2 was incorrectly Y 0 = Revenue False
classified as 𝜋1. X1 Administrative Ratio
𝑛22 = number of subjects from 𝑦2 was correctly classified Administrative
X2 Ratio
as 𝜋2. Duration
Formula for determining errors classification as follows. X& Informational Ordinary
n n Informational Ratio
X4
APER %   100%
12 21
(14) Duration
n n n n X( Product Related Ratio
12 11 21 22

In addition, the confusion matrices were formed for Product Related

X) Ratio
Duration
classifiers and form these matrices the measures of
X* Bounce Rates Ordinary
accuracy and Area Under the Curve (AUC) criteria were X+ Exit Rate Interval
calculated using Eqs. (15) and (16) [18]. X9 Page Values Ratio
𝑇𝑃 + 𝑇𝑁
𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑦 = X1- Special Date Ordinary
𝑇𝑃 + 𝑇𝑁 + 𝐹𝑃 + 𝐹𝑁 (15) X11 Month Nominal
1
𝐴𝑈𝐶 = O X12 Operating Systems Nominal
𝑇𝑃 𝑇𝑁 (16) X1& Browser Nominal
P
2 𝑇𝑃 + 𝐹𝑁 + 𝑇𝑁 + 𝐹𝑃 X14 Region Nominal
where TP, TN, FP, and FN denote true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative measures,
 8
respectively. X1( Traffic Type Nominal
X1) Visitor Type Nominal
X1* Weekend Nominal
 9
C. Steps Analysis B. Feature Selection
The steps that we do during the analysis are: Effective feature selection eliminates redundant
1. Data cleaning (fill the missing value detection) variables and keeps only the best subset of predictors in
2. Feature Selection the model which also gives shorter training times. In this
3. Multicollinearity Test paper we used chi-square test for the feature selection.
4. Exploratory Data The Chi- square test is used in statistics to test the
5. Split the data for training and testing independence of two events.
6. Make the model using binary logistic regression.
Table 4 Chi-Square Test.
7. Make the model using Decision Tree. Variable
Chi-square
Score Result
8. Make the model using Random Forest. Administrative 1133.97 Significant
9. Compare the accuracy between the models. Administrative Duration 41754.84 Significant
Informational 357.98 Significant
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Informational Duration 35059.78 Significant
Product Related 19317.29 Significant
In this research several analytical methods are used ProductRelated Duration 877404.34 Significant
to achieve the research objectives. The results of the Bounce Rates 29.65 Significant
analysis and discussion in predicting of online shopper’s Exit Rate 28.99 Significant
purchasing intention given as follows. PageValues 175126.81 Significant
Special Date 53.80 Significant
A. Pre-Processing Month 86.16 Significant
Operating Systems 1.04 Significant
This dataset doesn’t contain any missing values.
Browser 8.87 Significant
However, it contains imbalance data in target value. The Not
proportion of categories is shown in figure 1 Region 3.04
Significant
Traffic Type 1.28 Significant
Visitor Type 37.55 Significant
Weekend 8.12 Significant
From the table 4 we compare between chi-square
score and chi-squares’ value from the chi-square
distribution table. The result from the dependence test is
we eliminate variable region from model.
C. Multicollinearity Test
Multicollinearity is a phenomenon in which two or
more predictor variables in a multiple regression model
are highly correlated, meaning that one can be linearly
predicted from the others with a substantial degree of
accuracy The VIF is widely used as a measure of the
degree of multi-collinearity of the independent variable
with the other independent variables in a model.
Table 5 VIF TEST.
Figure 1 Bar Chart of Revenue. Variable VIF Result
There are majority class of No Revenue than Administrative 2.832 Significant
Revenue. This makes the data is unbalanced which might Administrative Duration 2.044 Significant
Informational 2.120 Significant
affect the performance of the prediction models. Because Informational Duration 1.779 Significant
of that we do oversampling using SMOTE method to treat Product Related 6.667 Not Significant
the imbalance data shows in figure 2 as follows. Product Related Duration 6.015 Not Significant
Bounce Rates 7.345 Not Significant
Exit Rate 11.721 Not Significant
PageValues 1.142 Significant
Special Date 1.132 Significant
Month 4.579 Significant
Operating Systems 5.664 Not Significant
Browser 2.940 Significant
Traffic Type 2.120 Significant
Visitor Type 6.155 Not Significant
Weekend 1.287 Significant
From Ringle’s rule to avoid the multicollinearity,
we use VIF less than 5. We eliminate variable one by one
from the biggest VIF first. After four times eliminate the
variables, we get the significant variable refers to table 6.

Figure 2 Bar Chart of Revenue After Over Sampling.

 1
Table 6 VIF TEST After Elimination.
Variable VIF Result
Administrative 2.574 Significant
Administrative Duration 1.968 Significant
Informational 2.105 Significant
Informational Duration 1.761 Significant
ProductRelated Duration 1.905 Significant
Bounce Rates 1.330 Significant
PageValues 1.126 Significant
Special Date 1.128 Significant
Month 4.255 Significant
Browser 2.551 Significant
Traffic Type 1.999 Significant
Visitor Type 4.777 Significant
Weekend 1.278 Significant
D. Exploratory Data Analysis
Exploratory Data Analysis will give more insight Figure 5 Revenue by Duration.
and information about the features.
From figure 5 shows total amount of time (in
seconds) spent by the visitor on product related pages
give the biggest impact to visitor making decision for do
online shopping.

Figure 6. KDE Plot of Bounce Rate

Figure 3 Revenue by Visitor Type.
From figure 3, we can see that the new visitors give
the biggest impact to revenue 25%. Otherwise the
returning visitors give impact 14% and Other give impact
19%.
Figure 4. Revenue by Month.
From figure 4 shows the biggest sales occur in May
and November. For increasing the revenue, we suggest
the e-commerce to give more discount and promotion in
May and November.
Refer to figure 6, low bounce rate will make the
probability of the customer do online shopping bigger.
User interface is important to make the visitor
comfortable and enjoy while do online shopping.
E. Classification Analysis
The methods used to predict online shopper’s
purchasing intention in this research are binary logistic
regression, decision tree, and random forest with
evaluation methods are 5 and 10-fold cross validation.
1. Binary Logistic Regression
Predict online shopper’s purchasing intention with
binary logistic regression is as follow.
a. Binary Logistic Regression with 5-Fold Cross
Validation
The results of the classification using training data
from 5-fold cross validation on binary logistic regression
methods are shown in Table 5 below.
Table 7 Confusion Matrix of Training Data from 5-Fold Cross
Validation with The Binary Logistic Regression.
Predict
Actual
Positive Negative
Positive 6631 714
Negative 1655 5690
After the confusion matrix is formed as in Table 7,
the next step is to calculate the accuracy of the
classification of the training data from 5-fold cross
validation by using equations (15) and (16) with the
results summarized in Table 8 as follow.

Table 8 The Accuracy of Training Data Classification from 5-Fold
Cross Validation with The Binary Logistic Regression.
Accuracy Sensitivity Specificity AUC
83,87% 77,47% 90,28% 83,87%
The measure of classification accuracy used is the
accuracy value because the data on the online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category. In Table 8
it is shown that with the binary logistic regression method
with 5-fold cross validation, the accuracy of classification
obtained in the training data is 83,87% with a possible
accuracy rate of customer agree to buy is 77,47% and
possible accuracy rate of customer disagree to buy is
90,28%. The ROC curve for the training data from 5-fold
cross validation is shown in Figure 7 below.
Figure 7 ROC Curve of Training Data from 5-Fold Cross Validation
with Binary Logistic Regression.
Because of the possibility of online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category, we use
threshold 0,5. Figure 7 shows that the area of the ROC
curve or can be referred as the AUC value is 83,87%.
Then do the evaluation using testing data with evaluation
method is 5-fold cross validation. The evaluation results
are shown in Table 9 below.
Table 9 Confusion Matrix of Testing Data from 5-Fold Cross
Validation with The Binary Logistic Regression.
Predict
Actual
Positive Negative
Positive 2756 321
Negative 180 442
After the confusion matrix is formed as in Table 9,
the next step is to calculate the accuracy of the
classification of the testing data from 5-fold cross
validation by using equations (15) and (16) with the
results summarized in Table 10 as follow.
Table 10 The Accuracy of Testing Data Classification from 5-Fold
Cross Validation with The Binary Logistic Regression.
Accuracy Sensitivity Specificity AUC
86,46% 71,06% 89,57% 80,31%
The measure of classification accuracy used is the
accuracy value because the data on the online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category. In Table
10 it is shown that with the binary logistic regression
method with 5-fold cross validation, the accuracy of
classification obtained in the testing data is 84,46% with a
possible accuracy rate of customer agree to buy is
71,06% and
1
possible accuracy rate of customer disagree to buy is
89,57%. The accuracy value is not too far different from
the classification results in the training data. It shows that
the classification results are quite good to predict online
shopper’s purchasing intention. The ROC curve for the
testing data from 5-fold cross validation is shown in
Figure 8 below.
Figure 8 ROC Curve of Testing Data from 5-Fold Cross Validation
with Binary Logistic Regression.
Because of the possibility of online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category, we use
threshold 0,5. Figure 8 shows that the area of the ROC
curve or can be referred as the AUC value is 80,31%. The
results also show that the evaluation results on the testing
data are not too far from the classification results in the
training data. So, it can be concluded that there is no
overfitting or underfitting in the result of prediction
models.
b. Binary Logistic Regression with 10-Fold Cross
Validation
Then the classification results are compared with 10-
fold cross validation to get the best accuracy value. The
results of the classification using training data from 10-
fold cross validation on binary logistic regression
methods are shown in Table 11 below.
Table 11 Confusion Matrix of Training Data from 10-Fold Cross
Validation with The Binary Logistic Regression.
Predict
Actual
Positive Negative
Positive 6636 709
Negative 1655 5690
After the confusion matrix is formed as in Table 11,
the next step is to calculate the accuracy of the
classification of the training data from 10-fold cross
validation by using equations (15) and (16) with the
results summarized in Table 12 as follow.
Table 12 The Accuracy of Training Data Classification from 10-Fold
Cross Validation with The Binary Logistic Regression.
Accuracy Sensitivity Specificity AUC
83,91% 77,47% 90,35% 83,91%
The measure of classification accuracy used is the
accuracy value because the data on the online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category. In Table
12 it is shown that with the binary logistic regression
method

with 10-fold cross validation, the accuracy of
classification obtained in the training data is 83,91% with
a possible accuracy rate of customer agree to buy is
77,47% and possible accuracy rate of customer disagree
to buy is 90,35%. The ROC curve for the training data
from 10-fold cross validation is shown in Figure 9 below.
Figure 9 ROC Curve of Training Data from 10-Fold Cross Validation
with The Binary Logistic Regression.
Because of the possibility of online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category, we use
threshold 0,5. Figure 9 shows that the area of the ROC
curve or can be referred as the AUC value is 83,91%.
When compared to the results of 5-fold cross validation
accuracy, the value of training data accuracy with 10-fold
cross validation is better than 5-fold cross validation.
Then do the evaluation using testing data with evaluation
method is 10-fold cross validation. The evaluation results
are shown in Table 13 below.
Table 13 Confusion Matrix of Testing Data from 10-Fold Cross
Validation with The Binary Logistic Regression.
Predict
Actual
Positive Negative
Positive 2758 319
Negative 178 444
After the confusion matrix is formed as in Table 13,
the next step is to calculate the accuracy of the
classification of the testing data from 10-fold cross
validation by using equations (15) and (16) with the
results summarized in Table 14 as follow.
Table 14 The Accuracy of Testing Data Classification from 10-Fold
Cross Validation with The Binary Logistic Regression.
Accuracy Sensitivity Specificity AUC
86,56% 71,38% 89,63% 80,51%
The measure of classification accuracy used is the
accuracy value because the data on the online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category. In Table
14 it is shown that with the binary logistic regression
method with 10-fold cross validation, the accuracy of
classification obtained in the testing data is 86,56% with a
possible accuracy rate of customer agree to buy is 71,38%
and possible accuracy rate of customer disagree to buy is
89,63%. The accuracy value is not too far different from
the classification results in the training data. It shows that
the classification results are quite good to predict online
shopper’s purchasing intention. The ROC curve for the
testing data from 10-fold cross validation is shown in
Figure 10 below.
1
Figure 10 ROC Curve of Testing Data from 10-Fold Cross Validation
with Binary Logistic Regression.
Because of the possibility of online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category, we use
threshold 0,5. Figure 10 shows that the area of the ROC
curve or can be referred as the AUC value is 80,51%.
When compared to the results of 5-fold cross validation
accuracy, the value of testing data accuracy with 10-fold
cross validation is better than 5-fold cross validation. The
results also show that the evaluation results on the testing
data are not too far from the classification results in the
training data. So it can be concluded that there is no
overfitting or underfitting in the result of prediction
models.
2. Decision Tree
Predict online shopper’s purchasing intention with
decision tree is as follow.
a. Decision Tree with 5-Fold Cross Validation
The results of the classification using training data
from 5-fold cross validation on decision tree methods are
shown in Table 15 below.
Table 15 Confusion Matrix of Training Data from 5-Fold Cross
Validation with The Decision Tree.
Predict
Actual
Positive Negative
Positive 6949 396
Negative 325 7020
After the confusion matrix is formed as in Table 15,
the next step is to calculate the accuracy of the
classification of the training data from 5-fold cross
validation by using equations (15) and (16) with the
results summarized in Table 16 as follow.
Table 16 The Accuracy of Training Data Classification from 5-Fold
Cross Validation with The Decision Tree.
Accuracy Sensitivity Specificity AUC
95,09% 95,58% 94,61% 95,09%
The measure of classification accuracy used is the
accuracy value because the data on the online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category. In Table
16 it is shown that with the decision tree method with 5-
fold cross validation, the accuracy of classification
obtained in the training data is 95,09% with a possible
accuracy rate of customer agree to buy is 95,58% and
possible accuracy rate of customer disagree to buy is
94,61%. The ROC curve for the training data from 5-fold
cross validation is shown in Figure 11 below.

Figure 11 ROC Curve of Training Data from 5-Fold Cross Validation
with Decision Tree.
Because of the possibility of online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category, we use
threshold 0,5. Figure 11 shows that the area of the ROC
curve or can be referred as the AUC value is 95,09%.
Then do the evaluation using testing data with evaluation
method is 5-fold cross validation. The results of the
evalution are shown in Table 17 below.
Table 17 Confusion Matrix of Testing Data from 5-Fold Cross
Validation with The Decision Tree.
Predict
Actual
Positive Negative
Positive 2805 272
Negative 187 435
After the confusion matrix is formed as in Table 17,
the next step is to calculate the accuracy of the
classification of the testing data from 5-fold cross
validation by using equations (15) and (16) with the
results summarized in Table 18 as follow.
Table 18 The Accuracy of Testing Data Classification from 5-Fold
Cross Validation with The Decision Tree.
Accuracy Sensitivity Specificity AUC
87,59% 69,94% 91,16% 80,55%
The measure of classification accuracy used is the
accuracy value because the data on the online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category. In Table
18 it is shown that with the decision tree method with 5-
fold cross validation, the accuracy of classification
obtained in the testing data is 87,59% with a possible
accuracy rate of customer agree to buy is 69,94% and
possible accuracy rate of customer disagree to buy is
91,16%. The ROC curve for the testing data from 5-fold
cross validation is shown in Figure 12 below.
Figure 12 ROC Curve of Testing Data from 5-Fold Cross Validation
with Decision Tree.
1
Because of the possibility of online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category, we use
threshold 0,5. Figure 12 shows that the area of the ROC
curve or can be referred as the AUC value is 80,55%. The
accuracy value is quite different from the classification
results in the training data. This shows that the
classification results are not good enough to predict
online shopper’s purchasing intention. So, it can be
suspected that there is overfitting in the result of
prediction models. One of solution to resolve this
problem is to change the comparison of the amount of
training data and testing data. But in this research, no
further analysis was carried out in handling this matter
and it was assumed that overfitting didn’t occur.
b. Decision Tree with 10-Fold Cross Validation
Then the classification results are compared with 10-
fold cross validation to get the best accuracy value. The
results of the classification using training data from 10-
fold cross validation on decision tree methods are shown
in Table 19 below.
Table 19 Confusion Matrix of Training Data from 10-Fold Cross
Validation with The Decision Tree.
Predict
Actual Positive Negative
Positive 6897 448
Negative 374 6971
After the confusion matrix is formed as in Table 19,
the next step is to calculate the accuracy of the
classification of the training data from 10-fold cross
validation by using equations (15) and (16) with the
results summarized in Table 20 as follow.
Table 20 The Accuracy of Training Data Classification from 10-Fold
Cross Validation with The Decision Tree.
Accuracy Sensitivity Specificity AUC
94,40% 94,91% 93,90% 94,40%
The measure of classification accuracy used is the
accuracy value because the data on the online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category. In Table
20 it is shown that with the decision tree method with 10-
fold cross validation, the accuracy of classification
obtained in the training data is 94,40% with a possible
accuracy rate of customer agree to buy is 94,91% and
possible accuracy rate of customer disagree to buy is
93,90%. The ROC curve for the training data from 10-
fold cross validation is shown in Figure 13 below.
Figure 13 ROC Curve of Training Data from 10-Fold Cross Validation
with The Decision Tree.
Because of the possibility of online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category, we use

threshold 0,5. Figure 13 shows that the area of the ROC
curve or can be referred as the AUC value is 94,40%.
When compared to the results of 5-fold cross validation
accuracy, the value of training data accuracy with 10-fold
cross validation is smaller than 5-fold cross validation.
Then do the evaluation using testing data with evaluation
method is 10-fold cross validation. The evaluation results
are shown in Table 21 below.
Table 21 Confusion Matrix of Testing Data from 10-Fold Cross
Validation with The Decision Tree.
Predict
Actual
Positive Negative
Positive 2810 267
Negative 174 448
After the confusion matrix is formed as in Table 21,
the next step is to calculate the accuracy of the
classification of the testing data from 10-fold cross
validation by using equations (15) and (16) with the
results summarized in Table 22 as follow.
Table 22 The Accuracy of Testing Data Classification from 10-Fold
Cross Validation with The Decision Tree.
Accuracy Sensitivity Specificity AUC
88,08% 72,03% 91,32% 81,67%
The measure of classification accuracy used is the
accuracy value because the data on the online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category. In Table
22 it is shown that with the decision tree method with 10-
fold cross validation, the accuracy of classification
obtained in the testing data is 88,08% with a possible
accuracy rate of customer agree to buy is 72,03% and
possible accuracy rate of customer disagree to buy is
91,32%. The ROC curve for the testing data from 10-fold
cross validation is shown in Figure 14 below.
Figure 14 ROC Curve of Testing Data from 10-Fold Cross Validation
with Decision Tree.
Because of the possibility of online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category, we use
threshold 0,5. Figure 14 shows that the area of the ROC
curve or can be referred as the AUC value is 81,67%.
When compared to the results of 5-fold cross validation
accuracy, the value of testing data accuracy with 10-fold
cross validation is better than 5-fold cross validation. The
accuracy value is quite different from the classification
results in the training data. This shows that the
1
classification results are not good enough to predict
online shopper’s purchasing intention. So, it can be
suspected that there is overfitting in the result of
prediction models. One of solution to resolve this
problem is to change the comparison of the amount of
training data and testing data. But in this research, no
further analysis was carried out in handling this matter
and it was assumed that overfitting didn’t occur.
3. Random Forest
Predict online shopper’s purchasing intention with
random forest is as follow.
a. Random Forest with 5-Fold Cross Validation
The results of the classification using training data
from 5-fold cross validation on random forest methods
are shown in Table 23 below.
Table 23 Confusion Matrix of Training Data from 5-Fold Cross
Validation with The Random Forest.
Predict
Actual
Positive Negative
Positive 7345 0
Negative 0 7345
After the confusion matrix is formed as in Table 23,
the next step is to calculate the accuracy of the
classification of the training data from 5-fold cross
validation by using equations (15) and (16) with the
results summarized in Table 24 as follow.
Table 24 The Accuracy of Training Data Classification from 5-Fold
Cross Validation with The Random Forest.
Accuracy Sensitivity Specificity AUC
100% 100% 100% 100%
The measure of classification accuracy used is the
accuracy value because the data on the online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category. In Table
24 it is shown that with the random forest method with 5-
fold cross validation, the accuracy of classification
obtained in the training data is 100% with a possible
accuracy rate of customer agree to buy is 100% and
possible accuracy rate of customer disagree to buy is
100%. The ROC curve for the training data from 5-fold
cross validation is shown in Figure 15 below.
Figure 15 ROC Curve of Training Data from 5-Fold Cross Validation
with Random Forest.
Because of the possibility of online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category, we use

threshold 0,5. Figure 15 shows that the area of the ROC
curve or can be referred as the AUC value is 100%. Then
do the evaluation using testing data with evaluation
method is 5-fold cross validation. The evaluation results
are shown in Table 25 below.
Table 25 Confusion Matrix of Testing Data from 5-Fold Cross
Validation with The Random Forest.
Predict
Actual
Positive Negative
Positive 2848 229
Negative 202 420
After the confusion matrix is formed as in Table 25,
the next step is to calculate the accuracy of the
classification of the testing data from 5-fold cross
validation by using equations (15) and (16) with the
results summarized in Table 26 as follow.
Table 26 The Accuracy of Testing Data Classification from 5-Fold
Cross Validation with The Random Forest.
Accuracy Sensitivity Specificity AUC
88,35% 67,52% 92,56% 80,04%
The measure of classification accuracy used is the
accuracy value because the data on the online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category. In Table
26 it is shown that with the random forest method with 5-
fold cross validation, the accuracy of classification
obtained in the testing data is 88,35% with a possible
accuracy rate of customer agree to buy is 67,52% and
possible accuracy rate of customer disagree to buy is
92,56%. The ROC curve for the testing data from 5-fold
cross validation is shown in Figure 16 below.
Figure 16 ROC Curve of Testing Data from 5-Fold Cross Validation
with Random Forest.
Because of the possibility of online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category, we use
threshold 0,5. Figure 16 shows that the area of the ROC
curve or can be referred as the AUC value is 80,04%. The
accuracy value is quite different from the classification
results in the training data. This shows that the
classification results are not good enough to predict
online shopper’s purchasing intention. So it can be
suspected that there is overfitting in the result of
prediction models. One of solution to resolve this
problem is to change the comparison of the amount of
training data and testing data. But in this research, no
further analysis was carried out in
1
handling this matter and it was assumed that overfitting
didn’t occur.
b. Random Forest with 10-Fold Cross Validation
Then the classification results are compared with 10-
fold cross validation to get the best accuracy value. The
results of the classification using training data from 10-
fold cross validation on random forest methods are shown
in Table 27 below.
Table 27 Confusion Matrix of Training Data from 10-Fold Cross
Validation with The Random Forest.
Predict
Actual
Positive Negative
Positive 7345 0
Negative 0 7345
After the confusion matrix is formed as in Table 27,
the next step is to calculate the accuracy of the
classification of the training data from 10-fold cross
validation by using equations (15) and (16) with the
results summarized in Table 27 as follow.
Table 28 The Accuracy of Training Data Classification from 10-Fold
Cross Validation with The Random Forest.
Accuracy Sensitivity Specificity AUC
100% 100% 100% 100%
The measure of classification accuracy used is the
accuracy value because the data on the online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category. In Table
28 it is shown that with the random forest method with
10- fold cross validation, the accuracy of classification
obtained in the training data is 100% with a possible
accuracy rate of customer agree to buy is 100% and
possible accuracy rate of customer disagree to buy is
100%. The ROC curve for the training data from 10-fold
cross validation is shown in Figure 17 below.
Figure 17 ROC Curve of Training Data from 10-Fold Cross Validation
with The Random Forest.
Because of the possibility of online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category, we use
threshold 0,5. Figure 17 shows that the area of the ROC
curve or can be referred as the AUC value is 100%. When
compared to the results of 5-fold cross validation
accuracy, the value of training data accuracy with 10-fold
cross validation and 5-fold cross validation are same.
Then do the evaluation using testing data with evaluation
method is
 1
10-fold cross validation. The evaluation results are shown handling this matter and it was assumed that overfitting
in Table 29 below. didn’t occur.
Table 29 Confusion Matrix of Testing Data from 10-Fold Cross
Validation with The Random Forest. F. Determine Best Model
Predict After analyzing the classification using the binary
Actual logistic regression, decision tree, and random forest with
Positive Negative comparing the results of the accuracy by 5-fold cross
Positive 2846 231 validation dan 10-fold cross validation methods are
Negative 205 417 summarized in Table 31.
Table 31 Summary of the Results of Classification Analysis.
After the confusion matrix is formed as in Table 29, Cross
Method Accuracy AUC
the next step is to calculate the accuracy of the Validation
classification of the testing data from 10-fold cross Binary Logistic 5-fold 86,46% 80,31%
validation by using equations (15) and (16) with the Regression 10-fold 86,56% 80,51%
5-fold
results summarized in Table 30 as follow. Decision Tree 87,59% 80,55%
10-fold 88,08% 81,67%
Table 30 The Accuracy of Testing Data Classification from 10-Fold 5-fold
Cross Validation with The Random Forest.
Random Forest 88,35% 80,04%
10-fold 88,21% 79,77%
Accuracy Sensitivity Specificity AUC
88,21% 67,04% 92,49% 79,77% Table 31 shows the accuracy and AUC values for
The measure of classification accuracy used is the each method and each fold cross validation. Because of
accuracy value because the data on the online shopper’s the possibility of online shopper’s purchasing intention
purchasing intention have a balanced category. In Table have a balanced category, then in determining the best
30 it is shown that with the random forest method with method is seen from accuracy value and threshold 0,5 for
10- fold cross validation, the accuracy of classification AUC value. Based on Table 31 it can be concluded that
obtained in the testing data is 88,21% with a possible the classification method with random forest using 5-fold
accuracy rate of customer agree to buy is 67,04% and cross validation is the best accuracy value and also the
possible accuracy rate of customer disagree to buy is best AUC value for predict online shopper’s purchasing
92,49%. The ROC curve for the testing data from 10-fold intention.
cross validation is shown in Figure 18 below.
V. CONCLUSION
The summary of the analysis and discussion in this
research is as follows.
1. The biggest probability of gaining revenue are new
visitor, visitors who has low bounce rate, month sales
in November and May, visitor who spent more times
in product related.
2. The best model for predict online shopper’s
purchasing intention is random forest using 5-fold
cross-validation with 88,21% accuracy.

Figure 18 ROC Curve of Testing Data from 10-Fold Cross Validation
with Random Forest.
Because of the possibility of online shopper’s
purchasing intention have a balanced category, we use
threshold 0,5. Figure 18 shows that the area of the ROC
curve or can be referred as the AUC value is 79,77%.
When compared to the results of 5-fold cross validation
accuracy, the value of testing data accuracy with 10-fold
cross validation is smaller than 5-fold cross validation.
The accuracy value is quite different from the
classification results in the training data. This shows that
the classification results are not good enough to predict
online shopper’s purchasing intention. So, it can be
suspected that there is overfitting in the result of
prediction models. One of solution to resolve this
problem is to change the comparison of the amount of
training data and testing data. But in this research, no
further analysis was carried out in
VI. SUGGESTION
Suggestions obtained from this research for further
research if you want to do a classification analysis for
predict online shopper’s purchasing intention with a
better accuracy value, then can do trials with other
classification methods besides the binary logistic
regression, decision tree, and random forest that have
been analyzed at this research.
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