Asia Society

Report Part Title: NEW POLITICAL DYNAMICS IN CHINA

Report Title: THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITICS OF U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS

Report Author(s): EVAN S. MEDEIROS
Published by: Asia Society (2023)
Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep55198.6

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 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS 43

NEW POLITICAL DYNAMICS IN CHINA

ƪƪĩƪƪŎűł Ʒʼnĩ ŎűǴŦƿĩűěĩ ŻŁ ĢŻůĩƪƷŎě ƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪ Żű ʼnŎűþܼƪ Ã‫ ܒ®ܒ‬ƟŻŦŎěǢ ʼnþƪ ŦŻűł Ěĩĩű þ ěʼnþŦŦĩűłŎűł
ĩűƷĩƢƟƢŎƪĩ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪþűĢƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűłþƢĩŁþƢŦĩƪƪƷƢþűƪƟþƢĩűƷƷʼnþűƷʼnŻƪĩŎűƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫܌‬
ĚǢĚŻƷʼnĢĩƪŎłűþűĢĢĩŁþƿŦƷ‫ܒ‬ȃĩ £ěŻǛĩƷƪŻƟþěŎƷǢþƪþƪŻƿƢěĩŻŁƟŻǜĩƢ‫܌‬ĚŻƷʼnŎűƷĩƢűþŦŦǢþűĢĩǡƷĩƢűþŦŦǢ‫ܒ‬
ȃþƷŻƟþěŎƷǢŎƪƟþƢƷŎěƿŦþƢŦǢƢŻĚƿƪƷþƢŻƿűĢƷʼnĩƟĩƢěĩƟƷŎŻűƪ‫܌‬ĢĩĚþƷĩƪ‫܌‬þűĢĢĩěŎƪŎŻűƪŻŁƷʼnĩƷŻƟŦĩþĢĩƢƪ‫܌‬
ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢ Żű ŁŻƢĩŎłű þűĢ űþƷŎŻűþŦ ƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł‫ ܒ‬ĢĢŎűł ƷŻ Ʒʼnĩ ěʼnþŦŦĩűłĩ‫ ܌‬Ʒʼnĩ ěŻůƟŻűĩűƷƪ
ŻŁ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł ‫ ܪ‬ƟĩƢƪŻűűĩŦ‫ ܌‬ŎűƪƷŎƷƿƷŎŻűƪ‫ ܌‬ƟĩƢěĩƟƷŎŻűƪ‫ ܌‬þűĢ ŎűěĩűƷŎǛĩƪ ‫ ܪ‬ʼnþǛĩ ěʼnþűłĩĢ
ƪƿĚƪƷþűƷŎþŦŦǢƪŎűěĩƷʼnĩƢŎƪĩŻŁåŎdŎűƟŎűłŎűƷʼnĩƟþƪƷĢĩěþĢĩ‫ܒ‬ȃƿƪ‫܌‬Ʒʼnĩ
black box of Chinese domestic political dynamics and policymaking Chinese politics and
ůþţĩƪ ƿűĢĩƢƪƷþűĢŎűł ŻŁ ŎƷƪ ĢĩůþűĢƪ þűĢ ƢĩơƿŎƢĩůĩűƷƪ ‫ ܪ‬þűĢ Ʒʼnĩ policymaking are far less
ŎůƟŦŎěþƷŎŻűƪ ŁŻƢ ʼnŎűþܼƪ Ã‫ ܒ®ܒ‬ƟŻŦŎěŎĩƪ ‫ ܪ‬ĢŎŁŁŎěƿŦƷ ƷŻ ĢŎƪěĩƢű ǜŎƷʼn transparent than those in
ƪƿĚƪƷþűƷŎþŦěŦþƢŎƷǢ‫ܒ‬
the United States, by both
Sű þĢĢŎƷŎŻű‫ ܌‬ƷʼnĩƢĩ Ŏƪ Ʒʼnĩ ơƿĩƪƷŎŻű ŻŁ åŎ dŎűƟŎűł þƪ ŦĩþĢĩƢ þűĢ Ʒʼnĩ
design and default. The CCP
ƟĩƢƪŻűþŦ ƟĩƢěĩƟƷŎŻűƪ þűĢ ǜŻƢŦĢǛŎĩǜƪ ʼnĩ ĚƢŎűłƪ ƷŻ ʼnŎűþܼƪ Ã‫ܒ®ܒ‬ covets opacity as a source
ƟŻŦŎěǢ‫¦ ܒ‬ĩłþƢĢŦĩƪƪ ŻŁ ʼnŻǜ Żűĩ ěʼnŻŻƪĩƪ ƷŻ ŁþěƷŻƢ ƷʼnŎƪ ĩŦĩůĩűƷ ŎűƷŻ of power, both internally
ƿűĢĩƢƪƷþűĢŎűł ʼnŎűþܼƪ ƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪ þűĢ ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł‫ ܌‬ƪƿěʼn ܹŎł hĩþĢĩƢ and externally.
fƿŦƷƿƢܺ ůþţĩƪ ěŻűƪŎĢĩƢþƷŎŻűƪ ŻŁ åŎܼƪ ƟĩƢěĩƟƷŎŻűƪ þűĢ ůŎűĢƪĩƷ
ŎůƟŻƢƷþűƷĚĩěþƿƪĩåŎƷĩűĢƪƷŻĢŻůŎűþƷĩƷʼnĩ £ܼƪĢĩěŎƪŎŻű‫ܮ‬ůþţŎűłƟƢŻěĩƪƪ‫܌‬ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢŻűĩǡƷĩƢűþŦ
ƟƢŎŻƢŎƷŎĩƪƪƿěʼnþƪÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƷŎĩƪ‫ܒ‬ȃƿƪ‫܌‬åŎܼƪƷʼnŎűţŎűł‫܌‬þƪěʼnþŦŦĩűłŎűłþƪŎƷŎƪƷŻĩǛþŦƿþƷĩ‫܌‬ŎƪěĩűƷƢþŦƷŻ
ƿűĢĩƢƪƷþűĢŎűłƷʼnĩĢŻůĩƪƷŎěƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪŻŁ ʼnŎűþܼƪƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűłƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܒ‬

¼Ż Ěĩ ƪƿƢĩ‫ ܌‬þ ĢþƢţ ŻƟþěŎƷǢ ĢŻĩƪ űŻƷ ƟƢĩǛþŎŦ Ŏű þŦŦ þƪƟĩěƷƪ ŻŁ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪ þűĢ ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł‫ܒ‬
®Ŏűěĩ ʼnŎűþܼƪ łƢŻǜƷʼn ůŻĢĩŦ ƢĩơƿŎƢĩƪ þ ĢĩłƢĩĩ ŻŁ ŻƟĩűűĩƪƪ ƷŻ ŁƿűěƷŎŻű ƟƢŻƟĩƢŦǢ þűĢ ƷŻƟ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ
policymakers meet with international counterparts on a regular basis, analysts do get some glimpses
ŎűƷŻƷʼnĩƪǢƪƷĩůܼƪƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦŎűƷĩƢƪƷŎěĩƪ‫ܒ‬ȃŎƪƟƢŻǛŎĢĩƪƿƪǜŎƷʼnþĢŎǛĩƢƪŎƷǢŻŁǛþűƷþłĩƟŻŎűƷƪƷŻĩǛþŦƿþƷĩʼnŻǜ
ƟĩŻƟŦĩ‫܌‬ŻƢłþűŎǬþƷŎŻűƪ‫܌‬ƟŻŦŎěŎĩƪ‫܌‬þűĢŎĢĩþƪþƢĩŎűǴŦƿĩűěŎűłƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł‫܌‬ŎűěŦƿĢŎűłþƪŎƷƢĩŦþƷĩƪƷŻÃ‫ܮܒ®ܒ‬
ʼnŎűþƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪ‫ܒ‬

ÃűŦŎţĩ Ŏű Ʒʼnĩ ƟþƪƷ‫ ܌‬ƷʼnĩƢĩ þƢĩ űŻǜ ůŻƢĩ þűĢ ůŻƢĩ ĢŎǛĩƢƪĩ ǜŎűĢŻǜƪ ƷʼnƢŻƿłʼn ǜʼnŎěʼn ƷŻ ŻĚƪĩƢǛĩ
ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł Ŏű ʼnŎűþ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ŻDzȀěŎþŦƪ þűĢ ĩǡƟĩƢƷƪ þƢĩ ůŻƢĩ ǜŎŦŦŎűł ƷŻ ĢŎƪěƿƪƪ ěĩƢƷþŎű ʼnŎűĩƪĩ
policies (such as economic decisions) in part to explain and justify them, which many feel the need to
ĢŻůŻƢĩƪŻƷʼnĩƪĩĢþǢƪ‫ܒ‬łƢŻǜŎűłĚŻĢǢŻŁĩǛŎĢĩűěĩűŻǜƪʼnŻǜƪƷʼnþƷĢŻůĩƪƷŎěƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦĢǢűþůŎěƪ‫ܪ‬ĚŻƷʼn
ƢĩŦþƷĩĢþűĢƿűƢĩŦþƷĩĢƷŻÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ƟŻŦŎěŎĩƪ‫ܪ‬ĢŎƢĩěƷŦǢŎűǴŦƿĩűěĩƷʼnĩƷŻűĩþűĢěŻűƷĩűƷŻŁ ʼnŎűþܼƪƪƷƢþƷĩłŎĩƪ
þűĢƟŻŦŎěŎĩƪƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܒ‬

ȃŎƪƟþƢƷŻŁƷʼnĩƪƷƿĢǢĩǛþŦƿþƷĩƪƷʼnĩŦŎűţƪĚĩƷǜĩĩű ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪþűĢƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűłƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ
®ƷþƷĩƪŎűƷʼnĩŁŻŦŦŻǜŎűłůþűűĩƢ‫ܒ‬ȃĩȀƢƪƷƪĩěƷŎŻűĩǡþůŎűĩƪƷʼnĩƿűŎơƿĩþƷƷƢŎĚƿƷĩƪŻŁåŎܼƪƷʼnŎűţŎűłþűĢ
þƟƟƢŻþěʼnƷŻŁŻƢĩŎłűþDzŁþŎƢƪþűĢÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƷŎĩƪ‫܌‬þƪĢŎƪƷŎűěƷŁƢŻůƷʼnŻƪĩŻŁʼnŎƪƟƢĩĢĩěĩƪƪŻƢƪ‫¼ܒ‬ŻƷʼnĩĩǡƷĩűƷ
ƷʼnþƷŻűĩěþűƪþǢƷʼnþƷåŎܼƪŁŻƢĩŎłűƟŻŦŎěǢʼnþƪþƟĩƢƪŻűþŦŎƷǢ‫܌‬ŎƷƪƷƢþŎƷƪþƢĩĩǡƟŦŻƢĩĢŎűƷʼnŎƪƪĩěƷŎŻű‫ܒ‬ȃĩ £
ěþŦŦƪƷʼnŎƪܹåŎdŎűƟŎűłȃŻƿłʼnƷŻű'ŎƟŦŻůþěǢŎűƷʼnĩtĩǜ/Ƣþ‫ܺ܌‬ĢƢþǜŎűłŻűƷʼnĩűŻůĩűěŦþƷƿƢĩþĢŻƟƷĩĢ

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44 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS

at the 19th£þƢƷǢ ŻűłƢĩƪƪŎűŁþŦŦ‫ڐڕܒږڐڏڑ‬ȃĩƪĩěŻűĢƪĩěƷŎŻűĩǡþůŎűĩƪƷʼnĩƢŻŦĩŻŁƟĩŻƟŦĩ‫܌‬ŎűƪƷŎƷƿƷŎŻűƪ‫܌‬

þűĢƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűłƟƢŻěĩƪƪĩƪƿűĢĩƢåŎ‫ܒ‬ȃŎƪŎűěŦƿĢĩƪþĢŎƪěƿƪƪŎŻűŻŁ ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟƿĚŦŎěŻƟŎűŎŻű‫ܒ‬ƷʼnŎƢĢ
ƪĩěƷŎŻűĩǡþůŎűĩƪƷʼnĩŎűǴŦƿĩűěĩŻŁåŎܼƪƟŻŦŎěǢƟƢŎŻƢŎƷŎĩƪŻű ʼnŎűþܼƪŁŻƢĩŎłűƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪþűĢƪƟĩěŎȀěþŦŦǢŻű
ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűłƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܒ‬

Using this three-part framework, this report argues that the attributes and requirements of Chinese
ƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪ‫ܪ‬ƟĩƢěĩƟƷŎŻűƪ‫܌‬þěƷŻƢƪ‫܌‬ŎűƪƷŎƷƿƷŎŻűƪ‫܌‬ƟƢŻěĩƪƪĩƪ‫܌‬þűĢŎűěĩűƷŎǛĩƪ‫ܪ‬ʼnþǛĩěʼnþűłĩĢƪƿĚƪƷþűƷŎþŦŦǢŎű
ƷʼnĩåŎĩƢþþűĢĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢþǼƷĩƢƷʼnĩ‫ڏڑ‬th£þƢƷǢ ŻűłƢĩƪƪ‫ܒ‬rþűǢŻŁƷʼnĩŁĩþƷƿƢĩƪŻŁ ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪƷŻĢþǢ
‫ ܪ‬ĚŻƷʼn ĩǡŎƪƷŎűł þűĢ ĩůĩƢłŎűł ‫ ܪ‬ʼnþǛĩ ĢŎƢĩěƷ ŎůƟŦŎěþƷŎŻűƪ ŁŻƢ Ã‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþ ƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪ‫ ܗ‬Ŏű ƪŻůĩ ěþƪĩƪ‫܌‬
ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟŻŦŎěǢěʼnŻŎěĩƪ‫ܣ‬ĩ‫ܒ‬ł‫܌ܒ‬ŻűĩěŻűŻůŎěƟŻŦŎěǢ‫ܤ‬þƢĩþƢĩƪƿŦƷŻŁÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþĢǢűþůŎěƪ‫܌‬þűĢ‫܌‬ŎűŻƷʼnĩƢ
ěþƪĩƪ‫܌‬ƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪĢƢŎǛĩƟŻŦŎěǢěʼnŻŎěĩƪƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܣ‬ĩ‫ܒ‬ł‫܌ܒ‬ŎűěƢĩþƪĩĢƷʼnƢĩþƷƟĩƢěĩƟƷŎŻűƪ‫ܒܤ‬ȃŎƪ
ƪƷƿĢǢ þƢłƿĩƪ ƷʼnþƷ ůŻƪƷ ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ĢŻůĩƪƷŎě ĢǢűþůŎěƪ Ŏű ʼnŎűþ ƷŻĢþǢ þƢĩ þěěĩűƷƿþƷŎűł Ʒʼnĩ ěŻůƟĩƷŎƷŎǛĩ
þƪƟĩěƷƪŻŁÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪþűĢƪʼnƢŎűţŎűłƷʼnĩƪƟþěĩŁŻƢůĩþűŎűłŁƿŦ쯯ƟĩƢþƷŎŻű‫܌‬þűĢƷʼnĩƪĩŁŻƢěĩƪ
þƢĩŦŎţĩŦǢƷŻłƢŻǜŎűƷʼnĩŁƿƷƿƢĩ‫ܒ‬

PERSONALIZATION OF FOREIGN POLICY

ȃĩƢĩþƢĩ‫܌‬þƷŦĩþƪƷ‫܌‬ƷǜŻĢŎůĩűƪŎŻűƪŻŁƷʼnĩƿűŎơƿĩůŎűĢƪĩƷƷʼnþƷåŎĚƢŎűłƪƷŻĚĩþƢŻűŁŻƢĩŎłűƟŻŦŎěǢþűĢ
ʼnŎűþܼƪÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ƟŻŦŎěǢ‫ܒ‬ȃĩȀƢƪƷŎƪʼnŎƪƟĩƢěĩƟƷŎŻűŻŁłŦŻĚþŦƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪþűĢŻŁƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪƷŻĢþǢ‫܌‬þűĢƷʼnĩ
ƪĩěŻűĢŎƪʼnŎƪŦĩþĢĩƢƪʼnŎƟƪƷǢŦĩþƪþƟƟŦŎĩĢƷŻ ʼnŎűĩƪĩĢŎƟŦŻůþěǢ‫ܒ‬

FŎƢƪƷ‫ ܌‬åŎܼƪ ƟĩƢěĩƟƷŎŻűƪ ŻŁ ʼnŎűþܼƪ ĩǡƷĩƢűþŦ ĩűǛŎƢŻűůĩűƷ þűĢ Ʒʼnĩ ƢŻŦĩ ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ÃűŎƷĩĢ ®ƷþƷĩƪ ʼnþǛĩ
ĢĩƷĩƢŎŻƢþƷĩĢ ƪƿĚƪƷþűƷŎþŦŦǢ‫ ܌‬þűĢ Ŏű þ ƢĩŦþƷŎǛĩŦǢ ƪʼnŻƢƷ ƟĩƢŎŻĢ ŻŁ ƷŎůĩ‫  ܒ‬Sű ‫ ܌ڗڐڏڑ‬Ŏű Ʒʼnĩ ȀƢƪƷ ǢĩþƢ ŻŁ ʼnŎƪ
ƪĩěŻűĢƷĩƢůþűĢŠƿƪƷþǼƷĩƢƷʼnĩ‫ژڐ‬th£þƢƷǢ ŻűłƢĩƪƪ‫܌‬åŎƢĩůþŎűĩĢƟŻƪŎƷŎǛĩ‫ܪ‬þŦůŻƪƷĩĚƿŦŦŎĩűƷ‫ܪ‬þĚŻƿƷ
łŦŻĚþŦþDzŁþŎƢƪ‫ܒ‬ƷƷʼnĩFŻƢĩŎłűDzŁþŎƢƪàŻƢţ ŻűŁĩƢĩűěĩŎű‫܌ڗڐڏڑ‬ʼnĩƪþŎĢ‫ ܹ܌‬ʼnŎűþʼnþƪĚĩĩűŎűƷʼnĩĚĩƪƷ
ƟĩƢŎŻĢ ŻŁ ĢĩǛĩŦŻƟůĩűƷ ƪŎűěĩ ůŻĢĩƢű ƷŎůĩƪ‫ ܌‬ǜʼnŎŦĩ Ʒʼnĩ ǜŻƢŦĢ Ŏƪ ƿűĢĩƢłŻŎűł Ʒʼnĩ ůŻƪƷ ƟƢŻŁŻƿűĢ þűĢ
ƿűƟƢĩěĩĢĩűƷĩĢ ěʼnþűłĩƪ Ŏű þ ěĩűƷƿƢǢ‫ ܗ‬þűĢ Ʒʼnĩƪĩ ƷǜŻ þƪƟĩěƷƪ þƢĩ ŎűƷĩƢƷǜŎűĩĢ þűĢ ŎűƷĩƢþěƷ ǜŎƷʼn ĩþěʼn
ŻƷʼnĩƢ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűþ ĩűŠŻǢƪ ůþűǢ ŁþǛŻƢþĚŦĩ ĩǡƷĩƢűþŦ ěŻűĢŎƷŎŻűƪ ƷŻ ěþƢƢǢ ŻƿƷ ǜŻƢţ ƢĩŦþƷĩĢ ƷŻ ŁŻƢĩŎłű þDzŁþŎƢƪ
þƷƟƢĩƪĩűƷþűĢŎűƷʼnĩǢĩþƢƪƷŻěŻůĩ‫ڑڕܺܒ‬SűĢĩĩĢ‫܌‬þƪþűŎűĢŎěþƷŻƢŻŁ ʼnŎűþܼƪłƢŻǜŎűłěŻűȀĢĩűěĩ‫܌‬þƷƷʼnŎƪ
ěŻűŁĩƢĩűěĩåŎƪþŎĢŁŻƢƷʼnĩȀƢƪƷƷŎůĩƷʼnþƷ ʼnŎűþƪʼnŻƿŦĢܹƷþţĩþűþěƷŎǛĩƟþƢƷŎűŦĩþĢŎűł‫ܣ‬䒸곭) the reform
ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ łŦŻĚþŦ łŻǛĩƢűþűěĩ ƪǢƪƷĩůܺ ‫Ⰼܣ‬椕屛椚⡤禹佖ꬠ), with a focus on the concepts of fairness and
ŠƿƪƷŎěĩ‫ڒڕܺܒ‬ȃŎƪƪĩƷŎűůŻƷŎŻűþűŎűƷĩƢűþƷŎŻűþŦþłĩűĢþƷʼnþƷʼnþƪŎűǛŻŦǛĩĢþłƢĩþƷĩƢþěƷŎǛŎƪůĚǢ ʼnŎűþŎű
shaping international rules, norms, and institutions to be more consistent with Chinese interests,
ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢǜŎƷʼnŎűƷʼnĩÃtƪǢƪƷĩů‫ܒ‬

Ǣ‫ڏڑڏڑ‬þűĢþǼƷĩƢƪĩǛĩƢþŦþěƷŎŻűƪĚǢƷʼnĩ¼ƢƿůƟþĢůŎűŎƪƷƢþƷŎŻű‫܌‬åŎܼƪŻƟƷŎůŎƪůƪƷþƢƷĩĢƷŻƷĩůƟĩƢ‫ܒ‬ȃĩƢĩ
ǜþƪƪŻůĩĢĩĚþƷĩŎű ʼnŎűþþĚŻƿƷǜʼnĩƷʼnĩƢƷʼnĩěŻƿűƷƢǢƪƷŎŦŦĩűŠŻǢĩĢþܹƟĩƢŎŻĢŻŁƪƷƢþƷĩłŎěŻƟƟŻƢƷƿűŎƷǢܺ
(䧶殜劼麁劍‫ ܌ܤ‬ŦþƢłĩŦǢ Ģƿĩ ƷŻ ƢŎƪŎűł Ã‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþ ƷĩűƪŎŻűƪ ƿűĢĩƢ £ƢĩƪŎĢĩűƷ ¼ƢƿůƟ þűĢ Ʒʼnĩ ƟþűĢĩůŎě‫ܒ‬

61 For a classic example of this, see Yang Jiechi, “Deepen the Promotion of Foreign Affairs Work in the New Era Guided by Xi Jinping Thought
on Diplomacy,” Qiushi, August 2018, as accessed on CSIS Interpret: China, at https://interpret.csis.org/translations/deepen-the-promotion-of-
foreign-affairs-work-in-the-new-era-guided-by-xi-jinping-thought-on-diplomacy/
62 “⛴鵛䎂⸖⸂䒓⴯⚥㕂暵蒀㣐㕂㢪❜倝㽷꬗,” [“Xi Jinping Urges Breaking New Ground in Major Country Diplomacy with Chinese Character-
istics”], Xinhua, June 24, 2018, at http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2018-06/23/c_1123025806.htm
63 “㗏䭯⟄倝傞➿⚥㕂暵蒀爢⠔⚺⛐㢪❜䙼䟝⚹䭷㼋 ⸖⸂䒓⴯⚥㕂暵蒀㣐㕂㢪❜倝㽷꬗,” [Adhere to the guidance of socialist diplomacy with
Chinese characteristics in the new era and strive to create a new situation in major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics], Remin
Ribao, June 24, 2018, at http://cpc.people.com.cn/n1/2018/0624/c64094-30079017.html

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 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS 45

tĩǛĩƢƷʼnĩŦĩƪƪ‫܌‬ƷʼnĩŻDzȀěŎþŦĢŎƪěŻƿƢƪĩǜþƪƷʼnþƷƷʼnĩƟĩƢŎŻĢƟĩƢƪŎƪƷĩĢ‫܌‬þŦĚĩŎƷǜŎƷʼnƪŻůĩƪěʼnŻŦþƢƪƢþŎƪŎűł
ơƿĩƪƷŎŻűƪþĚŻƿƷƷʼnŎƪěŻűěŦƿƪŎŻű‫ړڕܒ‬

ƪŦþƷĩþƪdþűƿþƢǢ‫ڐڑڏڑ‬þűĢĢƿƢŎűłƷʼnĩʼnĩŎłʼnƷŻŁƷʼnĩłŦŻĚþŦƟþűĢĩůŎě‫܌‬åŎܼƪþƪƪĩƪƪůĩűƷƢĩůþŎűĩĢƟŻƪŎƷŎǛĩ
ĚƿƷǜþƪþŦƪŻŻƿƷǜþƢĢŦǢěʼnþűłŎűłĢƿĩ‫܌‬ŎűƟþƢƷ‫܌‬ƷŻÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƷĩűƪŎŻűƪ‫ܒ‬űĩŻŁåŎܼƪƷŻƟƷʼnŎűţĩƢƪ‫ ܌‬ʼnĩű
æŎǡŎű‫ܪ‬ǜʼnŻǜþƪƷʼnĩűƷʼnĩƪĩěƢĩƷþƢǢ‫ܮ‬łĩűĩƢþŦŻŁƷʼnĩ ĩűƷƢþŦ ŻůůŎƷƷĩĩܼƪ£ŻŦŎƷŎěþŦþűĢhĩłþŦ ŻůůŎƷƷĩĩ
‫ܣ‬þűĢǜʼnŻŎƪűŻǜƷʼnĩrŎűŎƪƷĩƢŻŁ®ƷþƷĩ®ĩěƿƢŎƷǢ‫ܪܤ‬þƢłƿĩĢƷʼnĩ ʼnŎűþǜþƪěŻűŁƢŻűƷŎűłþǜŻƢŦĢěʼnþŦŦĩűłĩĢ
ĚǢƷʼnĩܹƷƢŎƟŦĩƪĩǛĩƢĩƪʼnŻěţƪܺ‫♲ܣ‬ꅾ⚚ꅾⱾⴁ‫ܤ‬ŻŁ ßS'‫܌‬ƢĩěĩƪƪŎŻű‫܌‬þűĢłƢĩþƷƟŻǜĩƢěŻůƟĩƷŎƷŎŻű‫ܒ‬ȃŎƪ
ǜþƪƷʼnĩȀƢƪƷƟƿĚŦŎěƿƪþłĩŻŁƷʼnŎƪŁŻƢůƿŦþƷŎŻűĚǢƪƿěʼnþƪĩűŎŻƢŻDzȀěŎþŦ‫¦ܒ‬ĩłþƢĢŎűłƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫܌‬
ʼnĩűܼƪĩƪƪþǢǜþƪƿűƿƪƿþŦŦǢŁƢþűţŁŻƢþåŎěŻűȀĢþűƷƢĩƪƟŻűƪŎĚŦĩŁŻƢƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢþDzŁþŎƢƪ‫ܒ‬NĩƪþŎĢ‫ܹ܌‬ůĩƢŎěþű
containment and suppression are a great threat, which could be both a sudden encounter war and a
ƟƢŻƷƢþěƷĩĢ ǜþƢ ǜŎƷʼn ʼnŎűþܺ ‫ܣ‬繠㕂麗ⵖ䩧⾓僽♧㣐㪭胇傁僽黨麁䧶⛲
僽䭯⛉䧶‫ܒܤ‬æĩƷ‫ ܌‬ʼnĩűŎűƷʼnŎƪĩƪƪþǢþŦƪŻþƢłƿĩĢƷʼnþƷƷʼnĩܹĩþƪƷŎƪƢŎƪŎűł [W]ithin a year, and notably
þűĢƷʼnĩǜĩƪƷŎƪĢĩěŦŎűŎűłܺþűĢƷʼnĩŻǛĩƢþŦŦěŻűĢŎƷŎŻűƪŁŻƢ ʼnŎűþƢĩůþŎű after Biden’s first year in
ǛĩƢǢ ŁþǛŻƢþĚŦĩ‫ ܌‬ěŎƷŎűł Ʒʼnĩ ƪƿěěĩƪƪĩƪ þűĢ łƢŻǜŎűł þƟƟĩþŦ ŻŁ ܹ ʼnŎűþܼƪ
ƪŻŦƿƷŎŻűܺŻƢܹ ʼnŎűþܼƪǜŎƪĢŻůܺ‫⚥ܣ‬㕂倰呩⚥㕂兰䢴‫ܒܤ‬NĩěŻűěŦƿĢĩĢƷʼnþƷ
office and following the
ʼnŎűþŎƪƪƷŎŦŦŎűþƟĩƢŎŻĢŻŁƪƷƢþƷĩłŎěŻƟƟŻƢƷƿűŎƷǢþűĢܹŎűłĩűĩƢþŦƷʼnĩ Russian invasion of Ukraine
ŻƟƟŻƢƷƿűŎƷŎĩƪþƢĩłƢĩþƷĩƢƷʼnþűƷʼnĩěʼnþŦŦĩűłĩƪ‫ܺܒ‬ ‫ڔڕ‬ in February 2022, Xi’s
assessment became notably
æĩƷ‫ ܌‬ǜŎƷʼnŎű þ ǢĩþƢ‫ ܌‬þűĢ űŻƷþĚŦǢ þǼƷĩƢ ŎĢĩűܼƪ ȀƢƪƷ ǢĩþƢ Ŏű ŻDzȀěĩ þűĢ more pessimistic.
ŁŻŦŦŻǜŎűł Ʒʼnĩ ¦ƿƪƪŎþű ŎűǛþƪŎŻű ŻŁ ÃţƢþŎűĩ Ŏű FĩĚƢƿþƢǢ ‫ ܌ڑڑڏڑ‬åŎܼƪ
þƪƪĩƪƪůĩűƷĚĩěþůĩűŻƷþĚŦǢůŻƢĩƟĩƪƪŎůŎƪƷŎě‫'ܒ‬ƿƢŎűłƷʼnĩ‫ڏڑ‬th£þƢƷǢ ŻűłƢĩƪƪŎűěƷŻĚĩƢ‫܌ڑڑڏڑ‬åŎܼƪ
ƪƟĩĩěʼnþűĢʼnŎƪŁƿŦŦǜŻƢţƢĩƟŻƢƷǜĩƢĩƢĩƟŦĩƷĩǜŎƷʼnűĩłþƷŎǛĩěŻűěŦƿƪŎŻűƪþĚŻƿƷƷʼnĩĩǡƷĩƢűþŦěŻűĢŎƷŎŻűƪ
ŁþěŎűł ʼnŎűþ‫܌‬þűĢƷʼnĩǢǜĩƢĩĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢŁƢþűţþĚŻƿƷƷʼnĩƷʼnƢĩþƷƪƟŻƪĩĢĚǢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ڕڕܒ‬/ǡþůƟŦĩƪ
ŎűěŦƿĢĩƷʼnĩŁŻŦŦŻǜŎűł‫܋‬

• ܹȃĩʼnĩłĩůŻűŎě‫܌‬ʼnŎłʼn‫ܮ‬ʼnþűĢĩĢ‫܌‬þűĢĚƿŦŦǢŎűłþěƷƪŻŁƿƪŎűłƪƷƢĩűłƷʼnƷŻŎűƷŎůŎĢþƷĩƷʼnĩ
ǜĩþţ‫܌‬ƷþţŎűłŁƢŻůŻƷʼnĩƢƪĚǢŁŻƢěĩþűĢƪƿĚƷĩƢŁƿłĩ‫܌‬þűĢƟŦþǢŎűłǬĩƢŻ‫ܮ‬ƪƿůłþůĩƪ
þƢĩĩǡĩƢƷŎűłłƢþǛĩʼnþƢů‫ܒ‬ȃĩĢĩȀěŎƷŎűƟĩþěĩ‫܌‬ĢĩǛĩŦŻƟůĩűƷ‫܌‬ƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ‫܌‬þűĢłŻǛĩƢűþűěĩ
ŎƪłƢŻǜŎűł‫ܺܒ‬
• ܹȃĩłŦŻĚþŦĩěŻűŻůŎěƢĩěŻǛĩƢǢŎƪƪŦƿłłŎƪʼn‫܌‬ƢĩłŎŻűþŦěŻűǴŦŎěƷƪþűĢĢŎƪƷƿƢĚþűěĩƪþƢĩ
ŁƢĩơƿĩűƷ‫܌‬þűĢłŦŻĚþŦŎƪƪƿĩƪþƢĩĚĩěŻůŎűłůŻƢĩþěƿƷĩ‫ܒ‬ȃĩǜŻƢŦĢʼnþƪĩűƷĩƢĩĢþűĩǜ
ƟĩƢŎŻĢŻŁƷƿƢĚƿŦĩűěĩþűĢěʼnþűłĩ‫ܺܒ‬
• ʼnŎűþŁþěĩƪܹĢƢþƪƷŎěěʼnþűłĩƪŎűƷʼnĩŎűƷĩƢűþƷŎŻűþŦŦþűĢƪěþƟĩ‫܌‬ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢĩǡƷĩƢűþŦþƷƷĩůƟƷƪ
ƷŻĚŦþěţůþŎŦ‫܌‬ěŻűƷþŎű‫܌‬ĚŦŻěţþĢĩ‫܌‬þűĢĩǡĩƢƷůþǡŎůƿůƟƢĩƪƪƿƢĩŻű ʼnŎűþ‫ܺܒ‬
• ܹ/ǡƷĩƢűþŦþƷƷĩůƟƷƪƷŻƪƿƟƟƢĩƪƪþűĢěŻűƷþŎű ʼnŎűþůþǢĩƪěþŦþƷĩþƷþűǢƷŎůĩܺþűĢ ʼnŎűþ
ܹůƿƪƷƷʼnĩƢĩŁŻƢĩĚĩůŻƢĩůŎűĢŁƿŦŻŁƟŻƷĩűƷŎþŦĢþűłĩƢƪ‫܌‬ĚĩƟƢĩƟþƢĩĢƷŻĢĩþŦǜŎƷʼnǜŻƢƪƷ‫ܮ‬
ěþƪĩƪěĩűþƢŎŻƪ‫ܺܒ‬

64 On this debate, see Evan S. Medeiros, “China Reacts: Assessing Beijing’s Response to Trump’s New China Strategy,” The China Leadership
Monitor, Issue 59, Spring 2019, at https://www.prcleader.org/_files/ugd/10535f_215ae166e24d4be0a094a3b49c71e6ab.pdf
65 For a summary of the speech, see “倜〄㾜꣌媮倜㖈ㆬꅽ꣥♧倜➡Ⱂ⚠倯꬗鵳遤ꢞꅺ ” [What is new in the new development stage? Chen
Yixin explained from eight aspects], January 15, 2021, at https://www.sohu.com/a/444668793_118060?mc_cid=d028ea4f3c&mc_eid=f-
7f4a56338
66 Xi Jinping, “Hold High the Great Banner of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics and Strive in Unity to Build a Modern Socialist Country
in All Respects,” Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xinhua, October 16, 2022, at https://english.news.
cn/20221025/8eb6f5239f984f01a2bc45b5b5db0c51/c.html

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 46 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS

• ʼnŎűþǜŎŦŦʼnþǛĩƷŻܹěƢþěţĢŻǜűʼnþƢĢŻűŎűȀŦƷƢþƷŎŻű‫܌‬ƪþĚŻƷþłĩ‫܌‬ƪƿĚǛĩƢƪŎŻű‫܌‬þűĢƪĩƟþƢþƷŎƪƷ
þěƷŎǛŎƷŎĩƪĚǢʼnŻƪƷŎŦĩŁŻƢěĩƪ‫ܺܒ‬

ȃĩƪĩŦþƷƷĩƢƷǜŻơƿŻƷþƷŎŻűƪǛĩƢǢŦŎţĩŦǢƢĩŁĩƢƷŻƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܒ‬ȃĩƪĩűĩłþƷŎǛĩƪĩűƷŎůĩűƷƪ‫ܪ‬ŎűƷʼnĩƪĩ
ĢŻěƿůĩűƷƪ þűĢ ĩþƢŦŎĩƢ Żűĩƪ ‫ ܪ‬þĚŻƿƷ Ʒʼnĩ ÃűŎƷĩĢ ®ƷþƷĩƪ Ʒʼnĩű ěƿŦůŎűþƷĩĢ Ŏű åŎܼƪ ƿűƿƪƿþŦŦǢ ƷþƢłĩƷĩĢ
ěƢŎƷŎěŎƪů ŻŁ Ã‫ ܒ®ܒ‬ƟŻŦŎěǢ ĢƿƢŎűł þ ĢŎƪěƿƪƪŎŻű ǜŎƷʼn ƟƢŻǛŎűěŎþŦ ŻDzȀěŎþŦƪ Żű Ʒʼnĩ ůþƢłŎűƪ ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ þűűƿþŦ
tþƷŎŻűþŦ£ĩŻƟŦĩܼƪ ŻűłƢĩƪƪůĩĩƷŎűł‫ܒ‬SűʼnŎƪrþƢěʼn‫܌ڒڑڏڑ܌ڕ‬ěŻůůĩűƷƪ‫܌‬åŎƪƷþƷĩĢ‫ܹ܌‬àĩƪƷĩƢűěŻƿűƷƢŎĩƪ
ŦĩĢĚǢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪʼnþǛĩŎůƟŦĩůĩűƷĩĢþŦŦ‫ܮ‬þƢŻƿűĢěŻűƷþŎűůĩűƷ‫܌‬ĩűěŎƢěŦĩůĩűƷþűĢƪƿƟƟƢĩƪƪŎŻűŻŁ
ʼnŎűþ‫܌‬ǜʼnŎěʼnʼnþƪĚƢŻƿłʼnƷƿűƟƢĩěĩĢĩűƷĩĢƪĩǛĩƢĩěʼnþŦŦĩűłĩƪƷŻŻƿƢěŻƿűƷƢǢܼƪĢĩǛĩŦŻƟůĩűƷ‫ ܺܒ‬ŻůŎűł
ŻűƷʼnĩʼnĩĩŦƪŻŁƷʼnĩŎűěŎĢĩűƷŎűǛŻŦǛŎűłþ ʼnŎűĩƪĩƪƟǢĚþŦŦŻŻűƷʼnþƷŻƟĩƢþƷĩĢŻǛĩƢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫܌‬åŎܼƪ
comments represented one of the few times that he referenced the
In contrast to his United States by name publicly in discussing containment and other
ěŻůƟĩƷŎƷŎǛĩƟŻŦŎěŎĩƪ‫ږڕܒ‬
predecessors, Xi
publicly advocated for
ȃŎƪƷʼnŎűţŎűłƟĩƢƪŎƪƷĩĢŻǛĩƢƷʼnĩƢĩůþŎűĢĩƢŻŁ‫ڒڑڏڑ‬ĩǛĩűþƪÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþ
more assertive strategies ƷŎĩƪ ĩǡƟĩƢŎĩűěĩĢ  ƪŻůĩ ƪƷþĚŎŦŎǬþƷŎŻű þǼƷĩƢ Ʒʼnĩ ƪƟǢ ĚþŦŦŻŻű ŎűěŎĢĩűƷ
in which China sought ĩþƢŦŎĩƢŎűƷʼnĩǢĩþƢ‫ܒ‬SűŦþƷĩrþǢ‫܌ڒڑڏڑ‬åŎěʼnþŎƢĩĢƷʼnĩȀƢƪƷůĩĩƷŎűłŻŁƷʼnĩ
to push back against the tþƷŎŻűþŦ®ĩěƿƢŎƷǢ ŻůůŎƪƪŎŻűŻŁƷʼnĩ‫ڏڑ‬th Central Committee where he
actions of other countries. ůþĢĩƪŻůĩƪƷþƢţěŦþŎůƪþĚŻƿƷĩǡƷĩƢűþŦěʼnþŦŦĩűłĩƪ‫ܒ‬NĩƪƷþƷĩĢƷʼnþƷƷʼnĩ
ŎűƷĩƢűþƷŎŻűþŦěŻűĢŎƷŎŻűƪŁþěŎűł ʼnŎűþþƢĩܹěŻűƪŎĢĩƢþĚŦǢůŻƢĩěŻůƟŦĩǡ
þűĢůƿěʼnůŻƢĩĢŎDzȀěƿŦƷƷŻĚĩƢĩƪŻŦǛĩĢ‫ܺܒ‬åŎƷʼnĩűƪƷƢĩƪƪĩĢƷʼnĩűĩěĩƪƪŎƷǢ
ŻŁ ĚĩŎűł ƢĩþĢǢ ƷŻ ǜŎƷʼnƪƷþűĢ ܹʼnŎłʼn ǜŎűĢƪ‫ ܌‬ěʼnŻƟƟǢ ǜþƷĩƢƪ‫ ܌‬þűĢ ĩǛĩű ĢþűłĩƢŻƿƪ ƪƷŻƢůƪܺ ƷʼnþƷ ůþűǢ
ʼnŎűĩƪĩƪěʼnŻŦþƢƪěŦþŎůŎƪþěŦĩþƢƢĩŁĩƢĩűěĩƷŻþƟŻƪƪŎĚŦĩÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþěŻűǴŦŎěƷ‫ڗڕܒ‬

ƪĩěŻűĢƿűŎơƿĩŁĩþƷƿƢĩŻŁåŎܼƪþƟƟƢŻþěʼnƷŻƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܪ‬þƟĩƢƪŻűþŦŎƷǢƷƢþŎƷ‫܌‬ŻŁƪŻƢƷƪ‫ܪ‬ǜþƪʼnŎƪ
ĚƢĩþţŁƢŻůƷʼnĩěþƢĩŁƿŦƪƷƢþƷĩłŎĩƪŻŁƟþƪƷ ʼnŎűĩƪĩŦĩþĢĩƢƪǜʼnŻƷĩűĢĩĢƷŻƟƢŎŻƢŎƷŎǬĩƪƷþĚŎŦŎƷǢŎűÃ‫ܮܒ®ܒ‬
ʼnŎűþƷŎĩƪ‫ܒ‬/ǡþůƟŦĩƪŎűěŦƿĢĩ'ĩűłܼƪþƟƟƢŻþěʼnŻŁܹţĩĩƟŎűłþŦŻǜƟƢŻȀŦĩܺþűĢܹʼnŎĢŎűłǢŻƿƢěþƟþĚŎŦŎƷŎĩƪ
þűĢ ĚŎĢŎűł ǢŻƿƢ ƷŎůĩ‫ ܺ܌‬dŎþűłܼƪ þĢǛŻěþěǢ ŻŁ ܹƟĩþěĩŁƿŦ ĢĩǛĩŦŻƟůĩűƷܺ ‫ܣ‬þűĢ űŻƷ ƟĩþěĩŁƿŦ ƢŎƪĩ‫ ܌ܤ‬þűĢ Nƿ
dŎűƷþŻܼƪƟƢŻůŻƷŎŻűŻŁƷʼnĩěŦþƪƪŎě ŻűŁƿěŎþűƟʼnŎŦŻƪŻƟʼnǢܹþěěŻůůŻĢþƷŎűłĢŎǛĩƢłĩűƷǛŎĩǜƪܺ‫ܣ‬ㄤ罜♶ず‫ܒܤ‬
SűłĩűĩƢþŦ‫ ܌‬ʼnŎűþܼƪƢĩŁŻƢů‫ܮ‬ĩƢþŦĩþĢĩƢƪŁŻŦŦŻǜĩĢ'ĩűłܼƪŎűƷĩƢűþŦƪƷƢþƷĩłǢƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܪ‬
ǜʼnŎěʼnǜþƪűŻƷþƟƿĚŦŎěƷĩƢů‫ܪ‬ţűŻǜűþƪܹƪƷƢƿłłŦĩĚƿƷĢŻűŻƷĚƢĩþţܺ‫ܣ‬修罜♶灶‫ܒܤ‬ȃŎƪƢĩǴŦĩěƷĩĢ'ĩűłܼƪ
ǛŎĩǜƷʼnþƷƷʼnĩÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪʼnŎƟǜŻƿŦĢűĩǛĩƢĚĩƷŻŻłŻŻĢŻƢƷŻŻĚþĢ‫ܒ‬

Sű ěŻűƷƢþƪƷ ƷŻ ʼnŎƪ ƟƢĩĢĩěĩƪƪŻƢƪ‫ ܌‬åŎ ƟƿĚŦŎěŦǢ þĢǛŻěþƷĩĢ ŁŻƢ ůŻƢĩ þƪƪĩƢƷŎǛĩ ƪƷƢþƷĩłŎĩƪ Ŏű ǜʼnŎěʼn ʼnŎűþ
ƪŻƿłʼnƷ ƷŻ Ɵƿƪʼn Ěþěţ þłþŎűƪƷ Ʒʼnĩ þěƷŎŻűƪ ŻŁ ŻƷʼnĩƢ ěŻƿűƷƢŎĩƪ‫ ܒ‬ƿƷ ʼnĩ ĢŎĢ ƪŻ Ŏű þ ǜþǢ ƷʼnþƷ ĩǡƟŦŎěŎƷŦǢ
ƷŻŦĩƢþƷĩĢ‫܌‬ŎŁűŻƷŎűǛŎƷĩĢ‫܌‬ƢŎƪţþűĢŁƢŎěƷŎŻűǜŎƷʼnŻƷʼnĩƢěŻƿűƷƢŎĩƪ‫'ܒ‬ƿƢŎűłʼnŎƪƪĩěŻűĢƷĩƢů‫܌‬þűĢĚĩłŎűűŎűł
þƢŻƿűĢ ‫ ܌ژڐڏڑ‬åŎ ƟƿĚŦŎěŦǢ ƪƷþƢƷĩĢ ěþŦŦŎűł ŁŻƢ ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţĩƢƪ ƷŻܹĢþƢĩ ƷŻ ƪƷƢƿłłŦĩ‫ܹܺ܌‬ĩůĚƢþěĩ þ ȀłʼnƷŎűł

67 Xi’s statement can be found here: “倝〄㾝꣌媯倝㖈ㆭꅽ꣥♧倝➢Ⱃ⚡倰꬗鵳遤ꢞꅺ” [When Xi Jinping visited the members of the Joint
Committee on Civil Engineering and Construction and Industry and Commerce who attended the CPPCC meeting, he emphasized that we
should correctly guide the healthy development of the private economy and high-quality development], Xinhua, March 6, 2023, at http://
www.news.cn/politics/leaders/2023-03/06/c_1129417096.htm
68 “⛴鵛䎂⚺䭯〮䒓✳⼧㾉⚥㣛㕂㹻㸝Ⰼ㨼プ⠔痦♧妃⠔雳䔂靈 ⸈䘯䲀鵳㕂㹻㸝Ⰼ⡤禹ㄤ腊⸂梡➿⻊ ⟄倝㸝Ⰼ呔㽷⥂ꥻ倝〄㾝呔㽷,” [Xi Jinping
presided over the first meeting of the 20th Central National Security Committee and emphasized that we should accelerate the modernization
of the national security system and capabilities and ensure the new development pattern with a new security pattern], Xinhua, May 30, 2023,
at http://www.news.cn/politics/leaders/2023-05/30/c_1129657348.htm

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 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS 47

ƪƟŎƢŎƷ‫ ܺ܌‬þűĢ ĩűłþłĩܹĚŻƷƷŻů ŦŎűĩ ƷʼnŎűţŎűł‫ ژڕܺܒ‬SűĢĩĩĢ‫ ܌‬ĢƿƢŎűł Ʒʼnĩ rþǢ ‫ ڒڑڏڑ‬ůĩĩƷŎűł ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ tþƷŎŻűþŦ
®ĩěƿƢŎƷǢ ŻůůŎƪƪŎŻűűŻƷĩĢþĚŻǛĩ‫܌‬åŎƪþŎĢ‫ܹ܌‬ǜĩůƿƪƷþĢʼnĩƢĩƷŻĚŻƷƷŻů‫ܮ‬ŦŎűĩƷʼnŎűţŎűłþűĢǜŻƢƪƷěþƪĩ
scenario thinking (匧ꣳ䙼絶‫ܺ܌ܤ‬ǜʼnŎěʼnŎƪåŎܼƪȀƢƪƷƟƿĚŦŎěƿƪĩŻŁƷʼnĩŦþƷƷĩƢƷĩƢů‫ܒ‬

ȃĩƪĩłƿŎĢĩŦŎűĩƪŁƢŻůåŎǜĩƢĩƢĩǴŦĩěƷĩĢŎűĚŻƷʼnƷʼnĩƪƷþƷĩůĩűƷƪþűĢþěƷŎŻűƪŻŁ ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟŻŦŎěǢůþţĩƢƪ
þűĢĢŎƟŦŻůþƷƪŎűƷʼnĩƟþƪƷĢĩěþĢĩĚƿƷĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢþǼƷĩƢ‫ ܒژڐڏڑ‬ʼnŎűþ‫܌‬ŎűƷʼnŎƪƷŎůĩƟĩƢŎŻĢ‫܌‬ǜþƪůƿěʼnůŻƢĩ
þƪƪĩƢƷŎǛĩŎűþĢǛþűěŎűł ʼnŎűĩƪĩƷĩƢƢŎƷŻƢŎþŦěŦþŎůƪŻűŦþűĢþűĢþƷƪĩþ‫܌‬ŎűěŦƿĢŎűłƪĩǛĩƢþŦůþŠŻƢŎűěŎĢĩűƷƪ
ǜŎƷʼn SűĢŎþ ‫ܣ‬Ŏű ‫ ڏڑڏڑ‬þűĢ ‫ ܤڐڑڏڑ‬þűĢ ůƿŦƷŎƟŦĩ þěƷŎŻűƪ Ŏű Ʒʼnĩ ®ŻƿƷʼn þűĢ /þƪƷ ʼnŎűþ ®ĩþƪ‫ ܌‬ŎűěŦƿĢŎűł
ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢþłłƢĩƪƪŎǛĩƷþěƷŎěƪǜŎƷʼnƷʼnĩ£ʼnŎŦŎƟƟŎűĩƪŎűŁþŦŦ‫ ܒڒڑڏڑ‬ʼnŎűþƿƪĩĢůŎŦŎƷþƢǢþűĢƟþƢþůŎŦŎƷþƢǢ
capabilities to push back more forcefully against foreign militaries operating near Chinese airspace
þűĢ ƪĩþ ƪƟþěĩ‫ ܌‬þűĢ þƢŻƿűĢ ¼þŎǜþű‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűþ ƿƪĩĢ ĩěŻűŻůŎě ěŻĩƢěŎŻű ůŻƢĩ ŁƢĩơƿĩűƷŦǢ ‫ ܪ‬Ŏű űĩþƢŦǢ ‫ڏڑ‬
ŎűƪƷþűěĩƪ‫ܪ‬þűĢŎűþůŻƢĩʼnŎłʼn‫ܮ‬ƟƢŻȀŦĩůþűűĩƢ‫܌‬ƪƿěʼnþƪƟƿűŎƷŎǛĩƷƢþĢĩþěƷŎŻűƪþłþŎűƪƷƿƪƷƢþŦŎþ‫ܒ‬70

'ƿƢŎűł ßS'‫ ܌‬ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ĢŎƟŦŻůþƷƪ ĩűłþłĩĢ Ŏű þłłƢĩƪƪŎǛĩ ƢʼnĩƷŻƢŎěþŦ ĚþƷƷŦĩƪ ǜŎƷʼn ƷʼnĩŎƢ ŁŻƢĩŎłű
counterparts, especially with the United States, to defend Chinese positions and discredit other
ěŻƿűƷƢŎĩƪ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűþܼƪþƪƪĩƢƷŎǛĩĢŎƟŦŻůþƷŎěƷþěƷŎěƪ‫܌‬ǜʼnŎěʼnʼnþǛĩĚĩěŻůĩţűŻǜűþƪܹǜŻŦŁǜþƢƢŎŻƢĢŎƟŦŻůþěǢ‫ܺ܌‬
ʼnþĢƷʼnĩŎƢƢŻŻƷƪŎűƷʼnŎƪƟĩƢŎŻĢþűĢěŦĩþƢŦǢŎűåŎܼƪěþŦŦŁŻƢĢŎƟŦŻůþƷƪƷŻĚĩůŻƢĩŁŻƢěĩŁƿŦŎűĢĩŁĩűĢŎűł
ʼnŎűþ‫ܒ‬ȃŎƪƪƷþƷĩěƢþǼƷǜþƪĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢěŻůůŻűƢĩłþƢĢŎűłůþűþłĩůĩűƷ
ŻŁÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪ‫܌‬ǜʼnĩƢĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩĢŎƟŦŻůþƷƪĩűłþłĩĢŎűƪŻůĩŻŁ Chinese statements and
ƷʼnĩŎƢ ʼnþƢƪʼnĩƪƷ ƟƿĚŦŎě ĩǡěʼnþűłĩƪ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűþܼƪ ƿƪĩ ŻŁ ůŎƪŎűŁŻƢůþƷŎŻű þűĢ
actions continue to reflect
disinformation directed at the United States expanded in this period
þƪǜĩŦŦ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƪŻƿłʼnƷƷŻƟƢŻůŻƷĩŁþŦƪĩűþƢƢþƷŎǛĩƪþĚŻƿƷÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬þěƷŎŻűƪƷŻ
Xi’s call for policymakers to
ŠƿƪƷŎŁǢ ʼnŎűþܼƪĢŎƟŦŻůþƷŎěƟŻƪŎƷŎŻűƪ‫܌‬ƪƿěʼnþƪŎƷƪƪƿƟƟŻƢƷŁŻƢƷʼnĩ¦ƿƪƪŎþű engage in more “struggle.”
ŎűǛþƪŎŻű ŻŁ ÃţƢþŎűĩ‫ ܒ‬àʼnŎŦĩ ƪŻůĩ ŻŁ ʼnŎűþܼƪ ʼnþƢƪʼnĩƪƷ ƢʼnĩƷŻƢŎě ʼnþƪ
ƪƿĚƪŎĢĩĢ‫ܣ‬þűĢţĩǢĢŎƟŦŻůþƷƪŦŎűţĩĢƷŻŎƷʼnþǛĩĚĩĩűůŻǛĩĢƷŻŻƷʼnĩƢƟŻƪŎƷŎŻűƪ‫ ܌ܤ‬ʼnŎűĩƪĩƪƷþƷĩůĩűƷƪþűĢ
þěƷŎŻűƪěŻűƷŎűƿĩƷŻƢĩǴŦĩěƷåŎܼƪěþŦŦŁŻƢƟŻŦŎěǢůþţĩƢƪƷŻĩűłþłĩŎűůŻƢĩܹƪƷƢƿłłŦĩ‫ ܺܒ‬ʼnŎűþܼƪƿűƿƪƿþŦŦǢ
þłłƢĩƪƪŎǛĩƟƿĚŦŎěĢĩŁĩűƪĩŻŁŎƷƪƪƟǢĚþŦŦŻŻűĢƿƢŎűłŎƷƪǴŦŎłʼnƷŻǛĩƢƷʼnĩěŻűƷŎűĩűƷþŦÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪŎűƪƟƢŎűł
‫ܪڒڑڏڑ‬ĢĩűǢŎűłŎƷƪŻƢŎłŎűþŦůŎƪƪŎŻűþűĢĚŦþůŎűłƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪŁŻƢŻǛĩƢƢĩþěƷŎűł‫ܪ‬ŻDzŁĩƢƪþƢĩěĩűƷ
ĩǡþůƟŦĩŻŁƷʼnĩƟĩƢƪŎƪƷĩűěĩŻŁƷʼnŎƪþƟƟƢŻþěʼnŎű ʼnŎűþܼƪƟƿĚŦŎěĢŎƟŦŻůþěǢ‫ܒ‬

PERSONNEL, INSTITUTIONS, AND PROCESSES

åŎܼƪ ƟĩƢěĩƟƷŎŻűƪ ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ǜŻƢŦĢ þűĢ ʼnŎƪ ƟŻŦŎěǢ ƟƢĩŁĩƢĩűěĩƪ þƢĩ þŦƪŻ ƢĩǴŦĩěƷĩĢ Ŏű Ʒʼnĩ ƢŻŦĩƪ ŻŁ ƟĩŻƟŦĩ‫܌‬
ŎűƪƷŎƷƿƷŎŻűƪ‫܌‬þűĢƟƢŻěĩƪƪĩƪ‫¼ܒ‬ǜŻůþŎűŁŻƢěĩƪʼnþǛĩĚĩĩűþƷƟŦþǢʼnĩƢĩ‫܋‬ěĩűƷƢþŦŎǬþƷŎŻűþűĢƟŻŦŎƷŎěŎǬþƷŎŻű‫ܒ‬
ŻƷʼnŁŻƢěĩƪʼnþǛĩŎűǴŦƿĩűěĩĢþűĢěŻűƷŎűƿĩƷŻŎűǴŦƿĩűěĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩŁŻƢĩŎłűƟŻŦŎěǢþűĢĩŎŠŎűłܼƪþƟƟƢŻþěʼn
ƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܒ‬

69 “⛴鵛䎂㖈溁鿈紩⚺銳곭㼋䎁鿈㗏䭯䏀絁䙼絶满⸂꣈薴⻊鍒ꅾ㣐굥ꤗ⚁곿灇雭棴䒓棴䒭♳〄邍ꅾ銳雷霢,” [Xi Jinping delivered an impor-

tant speech at the opening ceremony of a special seminar for leading cadres at the provincial and ministerial levels to adhere to bot-
tom-line thinking and focus on preventing and defusing major risks], Xinhua, January 21, 2019, http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/lead-
ers/2019-01/21/c_1124022412.htm; “Xi emphasizes ‘struggles’ to achieve national rejuvenation,” People’s Daily Online, September 4, 2019,
http://en.people.cn/n3/2019/0904/c90000-9611854.html. For a useful summary of the instances in 2019 of Xi’s uses of these terms see: “⛴
鵛䎂慨⸠䎃鲽䎁鿈〄䪋修✰礵牟” [Xi Jinping incentivizes young cadres to exercise fighting spirit], Dang Jian Wang Wei Pingtai, September 9,
2021, at https://m.gmw.cn/baijia/2021-09/09/35150338.html
70 Victor D. Cha, “Collective Resilience: Deterring China’s Weaponization of Economic Interdependence,” International Security, vol. 48, no. 1
(2023), pp. 91–124; Peter Harrell, Elizabeth Rosenberg, and Edoardo Saravalle, China’s Use of Coercive Economic Measures, Center for New
American Security, June 2018, at https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/chinas-use-of-coercive-economic-measures; Matthew Reynolds
and Matthew P. Goodman, Deny, Deflect, Deter: Countering China’s Economic Coercion, Center for Strategic and International Studies, March
2023, at https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2023-03/230321_Goodman_CounteringChina%27s_EconomicCoercion.
pdf ?VersionId=UnF29IRogQV4vH6dy6ixTpfTnWvftd6v

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48 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS

®Ŏűěĩ åŎ dŎűƟŎűł ěþůĩ ƷŻ ƟŻǜĩƢ‫ ܌‬Żűĩ ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ĢŻůŎűþűƷ ŁĩþƷƿƢĩƪ ŻŁ ʼnŎƪ ŦĩþĢĩƢƪʼnŎƟ ʼnþƪ Ěĩĩű Ʒʼnĩ
ěĩűƷƢþŦŎǬþƷŎŻűŻŁƟŻǜĩƢ‫ܒ‬ȃŎƪʼnþƪŎűǛŻŦǛĩĢƷʼnĩěŻűěĩűƷƢþƷŎŻűŻŁƟŻǜĩƢþƢŻƿűĢåŎþűĢþƢŻƿűĢƷʼnĩ ĩűƷƢþŦ
Committee apparatus more broadly, resulting in a diminished role for the State Council and many of
ŎƷƪěŻűƪƷŎƷƿĩűƷůŎűŎƪƷƢŎĩƪ‫ܒ‬åŎƢĩǜŎƢĩĢƷʼnĩƟþƢƷǢ‫ܮ‬ƪƷþƷĩƪǢƪƷĩůŎűʼnŎƪþűĢƷʼnĩ £ܼƪŁþǛŻƢ‫ܒ‬

Sű Ʒʼnĩ ƟþƪƷ ‫ ڏڐ‬ǢĩþƢƪ ǜŎƷʼnŎű Ʒʼnĩ ĩűƷƢþŦ ŻůůŎƷƷĩĩ ƪǢƪƷĩů‫ ܌‬åŎ ʼnþƪ ĩŦĩǛþƷĩĢ Ʒʼnĩ ƢŻŦĩ þűĢ ŎűǴŦƿĩűěĩ
of existing leading small groups (곭㼋㼭絆) into commissions (㨼プ⠔), and he has created new
ěŻůůŎƪƪŎŻűƪƷŻłƿŎĢĩƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűłŻűěƢŎƷŎěþŦŎƪƪƿĩƪƢþűłŎűłŁƢŻůěǢĚĩƢƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢƷŻŎűűŻǛþƷŎŻűƟŻŦŎěǢ‫ܒ‬
åŎ Ŏƪ Ʒʼnĩ űŻůŎűþŦ ěʼnþŎƢ ŻŁ ůŻƪƷ ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩƪĩ ŻƢłþűŎǬþƷŎŻűƪ‫ ܌‬ƟƿƷƷŎűł ʼnŎůƪĩŦŁ þƷ Ʒʼnĩ ěĩűƷĩƢ ŻŁ þŦŦ ůþŠŻƢ
ƟŻŦŎěǢŎƪƪƿĩƪ‫܌‬ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢƷʼnŻƪĩƷʼnþƷĢŎƢĩěƷŦǢþűĢŎűĢŎƢĩěƷŦǢƷŻƿěʼnƷʼnĩÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪʼnŎƟ‫ܒ‬NĩƢĩåŎܼƪ
own centrality in the leadership parallels his conception of the centrality of the CCP, of which he has
ƟƢŻěŦþŎůĩĢ‫ܹ܋‬£þƢƷǢ‫܌‬łŻǛĩƢűůĩűƷ‫܌‬ůŎŦŎƷþƢǢ‫܌‬ěŎǛŎŦŎþű‫܌‬þűĢþěþĢĩůŎě‫܌‬ĩþƪƷ‫܌‬ǜĩƪƷ‫܌‬ƪŻƿƷʼn‫܌‬űŻƢƷʼn‫܌‬þűĢěĩűƷĩƢ‫܌‬
ƷʼnĩƟþƢƷǢŦĩþĢƪĩǛĩƢǢƷʼnŎűł‫ܺܒ‬71

åŎܼƪěƢĩþƷŎŻűŻŁþtþƷŎŻűþŦ®ĩěƿƢŎƷǢ ŻůůŎƪƪŎŻű‫ܣ‬t® ‫ܤ‬Ŏű‫ڒڐڏڑ‬þűĢʼnŎƪĩǡƟþűƪŎŻűŻŁŎƷƪƢŻŦĩŎűĚŻƷʼn

ĢŻůĩƪƷŎěþűĢĩǡƷĩƢűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢŎƪƪƿĩƪþƢĩþěŦþƪƪŎěĩǡþůƟŦĩŻŁƷʼnĩěĩűƷƢþŦŎǬþƷŎŻűƟʼnĩűŻůĩűŻű‫ܒ‬ƷƷʼnĩ
ěŻůůŎƪƪŎŻűܼƪrþǢ‫ڒڑڏڑ‬ůĩĩƷŎűł‫܌‬åŎěþŦŦĩĢŁŻƢƷʼnĩŁŻƢůþƷŎŻűŻŁþܹűĩǜűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢþƢěʼnŎƷĩěƷƿƢĩܺ
ƢƿűĚǢƷʼnĩt® ‫ܒ‬ȃĩěŻƢƢĩƪƟŻűĢŎűłěŻƪƷŻŁƷʼnŎƪěĩűƷƢþŦŎǬþƷŎŻűŎƪƷʼnþƷŎƷʼnþƪĩűʼnþűěĩĢƷʼnĩƢŻŦĩŻŁƷʼnĩ
rŎűŎƪƷƢŎĩƪ ŻŁ ®ƷþƷĩ ®ĩěƿƢŎƷǢ‫ ܌‬£ƿĚŦŎě ®ĩěƿƢŎƷǢ þűĢ £ƢŻƟþłþűĢþ þűĢ‫ ܌‬Ŏű ĢŻŎűł ƪŻ‫ ܌‬ĢŎůŎűŎƪʼnĩĢ Ʒʼnĩ ƢŻŦĩ
ŻŁŻƷʼnĩƢůŎűŎƪƷƢŎĩƪ‫܌‬ƪƿěʼnþƪƷʼnĩrŎűŎƪƷƢǢŻŁFŻƢĩŎłűDzŁþŎƢƪþűĢƷʼnĩrŎűŎƪƷƢǢŻŁ ŻůůĩƢěĩ‫܌‬ŎűĚŻƷʼn
ŁŻƢĩŎłűƟŻŦŎěǢŁŻƢůƿŦþƷŎŻűþűĢĩǡĩěƿƷŎŻű‫ܒ‬SűþłłƢĩłþƷĩ‫܌‬Ʒʼnĩ®ƷþƷĩ ŻƿűěŎŦþűĢŎƷƪƟƢĩůŎĩƢþƢĩůƿěʼn
ǜĩþţĩƢŎűƪƷŎƷƿƷŎŻűƪƿűĢĩƢåŎdŎűƟŎűłƷʼnþűƿűĢĩƢʼnŎƪƟƢĩĢĩěĩƪƪŻƢƪ‫ܒ‬

ȃŎƪ ěĩűƷƢþŦŎǬþƷŎŻű ŻŁ ĢĩěŎƪŎŻű‫ܮ‬ůþţŎűł þƿƷʼnŻƢŎƷǢ ƷŻŻţ þ ůþŠŻƢ ƪƷĩƟ ŁŻƢǜþƢĢ ĢƿƢŎűł Ʒʼnĩ ‫ڏڑ‬th Party
ŻűłƢĩƪƪŎűŁþŦŦ‫ܒڑڑڏڑ‬åŎűŻƷŻűŦǢƪĩěƿƢĩĢþƷʼnŎƢĢƷĩƢůĚƿƷþŦƪŻŦĩǼƷǛĩƢǢŻƟĩű‫ܮ‬ĩűĢĩĢʼnŎƪŁƿƷƿƢĩþƪƷʼnĩ
ƷŻƟŦĩþĢĩƢ‫ܗ‬ƷʼnŎƪþŦŦŻǜĩĢʼnŎůƷŻěŻűěĩűƷƢþƷĩĩǛĩűůŻƢĩƟŻǜĩƢŎűʼnŎƪʼnþűĢƪĚǢƢĩůŻǛŎűłůþŠŻƢŎűěĩűƷŎǛĩƪ
ĚǢ ŻƷʼnĩƢ ƟŻŦŎƷŎěŎþűƪ ƷŻ ƪƷþŦŦ ŻƢ ěŎƢěƿůǛĩűƷ ʼnŎƪ ƟŻŦŎěŎĩƪ ŁŻƢ þűŻƷʼnĩƢ ȀǛĩ‫ܮ‬ǢĩþƢ ěǢěŦĩ‫ ܒ‬Sű þĢĢŎƷŎŻű‫ ܌‬åŎܼƪ
þĚŎŦŎƷǢƷŻŎűƪƷþŦŦʼnŎƪʼnþűĢ‫ܮ‬ƟŎěţĩĢěŻűȀĢĩűƷƪŎűƷŻĚŻƷʼnƷʼnĩ£ŻŦŎƷŎĚƿƢŻ®ƷþűĢŎűł ŻůůŎƷƷĩĩ‫ܣ‬£® ‫ܤ‬þűĢ
ƷʼnĩĚƢŻþĢĩƢ£ŻŦŎƷĚƿƢŻƢĩůŻǛĩĢƟŻƪƪŎĚŦĩƪŻƿƢěĩƪŻŁŻƟƟŻƪŎƷŎŻűƷŻʼnŎƪƟŻŦŎěŎĩƪ‫܌‬ěƢĩþƷŎűłþűĩǛĩűůŻƢĩ
ƟĩƢůŎƪƪŎǛĩĩűǛŎƢŻűůĩűƷŁŻƢʼnŎƪƟƢĩŁĩƢĩűěĩƪƷŻĢŻůŎűþƷĩ‫ܒ‬tŻƷþĚŦĩƟƢŻůŻƷŎŻűƪƷŻƷʼnĩ£® ŎűěŦƿĢĩĢ
àþűłNƿűŎűł‫܌‬ǜʼnŻŎƪűŻǜƷʼnĩŁŻƿƢƷʼnƢþűţŎűłůĩůĚĩƢŻŁƷʼnĩĚŻĢǢ‫ܒ‬àþűłƪƷƿĢŎĩĢŎűƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ
ŎűƷʼnĩŦþƷĩ‫ڏڗژڐ‬ƪþűĢŎƪţűŻǜűƷŻĚĩǛĩƢǢěƢŎƷŎěþŦŻŁÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ƪŻěŎĩƷǢþűĢƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪ‫܌‬ƟĩƢʼnþƟƪĩűěŻƿƢþłŎűłƷʼnĩ
ěŻůůŻűŦǢʼnĩŦĢǛŎĩǜŎűƷʼnĩ £ƷʼnþƷƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪŎƪŎűƢþƟŎĢþűĢƷĩƢůŎűþŦĢĩěŦŎűĩþűĢƷʼnþƷ ʼnŎűþܼƪ
łŻǛĩƢűþűěĩ ěʼnŻŎěĩƪ ƢĩƟƢĩƪĩűƷ þ ǛŎþĚŦĩ þűĢ ǜĩŦěŻůĩ þŦƷĩƢűþƷŎǛĩ ƷŻ Ʒʼnĩ Ã‫ ܒ®ܒ‬ƪǢƪƷĩů‫ܒ‬72 At the Party
ŻűłƢĩƪƪ‫ ܌‬Ʒʼnĩ £ þŦƪŻ ěƢĩþƷĩĢ ƪĩǛĩƢþŦ ůŻƢĩ ěŻůůŎƪƪŎŻűƪ ƢĩŦþƷĩĢ ƷŻ ȀűþűěŎþŦ ƪĩěƷŻƢ ůþűþłĩůĩűƷ
þűĢ ƷĩěʼnűŻŦŻłǢ ŎűűŻǛþƷŎŻű ƷŻ ŁƿƢƷʼnĩƢ þĢǛþűěĩ Ʒʼnĩ ěĩűƷƢþŦŎǬþƷŎŻű ŻŁ ĢĩěŎƪŎŻű‫ܮ‬ůþţŎűł þűĢ ƟŻŦŎěǢ
ŎůƟŦĩůĩűƷþƷŎŻűǜŎƷʼnŎűƷʼnĩ ĩűƷƢþŦ ŻůůŎƷƷĩĩþƟƟþƢþƷƿƪ‫ܒ‬

ǛĩƢþŦŦ‫ ܌‬Ʒʼnĩ ĩǛĩűƷƪ þƷ Ʒʼnĩ ‫ڏڑ‬th Party Congress created a unique set of personnel, institutional, and
ŎűƷƢþƟþƢƷǢ ŎűěĩűƷŎǛĩƪ ƷʼnþƷ þŦŦŻǜƪ åŎ ƷŻ ĢƢŎǛĩ ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł Ŏű ǜþǢƪ ƿűŦŎţĩ þűǢ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ŦĩþĢĩƢ Ŏű Ʒʼnĩ

71 Charlotte Gao, “The CCP Vows to ‘Lead Everything’ Once Again,” The Diplomat, October 28, 2017, at https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/the-
ccp-vows-to-lead-everything-once-again/
72 See N. S. Lyons, “The Triumph and Terror of Wang Huning,” Palladium, October 11, 2021, at https://www.palladiummag.com/2021/10/11/the-
triumph-and-terror-of-wang-huning/; Chang Che, “How a Book about America’s History Foretold China’s Future,” The New Yorker, March 21,
2022, at https://www.newyorker.com/books/second-read/how-a-book-about-americas-history-foretold-chinas-future

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 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS 49

ƢĩŁŻƢůĩƢþ‫ܒ‬tŻƷŻűŦǢĢŻĩƪåŎŁƿŦŦǢěŻűƷƢŻŦƷʼnĩţĩǢŦĩǛĩƢƪŻŁƟŻǜĩƢŎűƷʼnĩ ĩűƷƢþŦ ŻůůŎƷƷĩĩƪǢƪƷĩůĚƿƷ‫܌‬

ƿűŦŎţĩƿűĢĩƢ'ĩűłåŎþŻƟŎűł‫܌‬ŁŻƢĩǡþůƟŦĩ‫܌‬ƷʼnĩƢĩþƢĩűŻƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦƟĩĩƢƪǜʼnŻěŻƿŦĢěƢĩĢŎĚŦǢƿűĢĩƢůŎűĩ
ʼnŎƪþƿƷʼnŻƢŎƷǢ‫ܒ‬ȃĩƢĩƪŻűþűěĩǜŎƷʼnƷʼnĩrþŻĩƢþ‫ܪ‬ĚƿƷűŻƷƷʼnĩƢĩƟŦŎěþƷŎŻűŻŁŎƷ‫ܪ‬þƢĩʼnþƢĢƷŻĢĩűǢ‫ܒ‬

ƪþƢĩƪƿŦƷŻŁƷʼnĩěĩűƷƢþŦŎǬþƷŎŻűŻŁƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűłŎűƷʼnĩ ĩűƷƢþŦ ŻůůŎƷƷĩĩþƟƟþƢþƷƿƪþűĢƷʼnĩʼnĩþǛǢ

ƢĩŦŎþűěĩŻűåŎܼƪǛŎĩǜƪ‫܌‬ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűłŎűƷʼnĩƟþƪƷĢĩěþĢĩʼnþƪĚĩěŻůĩůŻƢĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěŎǬĩĢ‫ܪ‬ƢĩǴŦĩěƷŎűłåŎܼƪ
ƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦłŻþŦƪþűĢʼnŎƪǛĩƢƪŎŻűŻŁƷʼnĩƟþƢƷǢ‫ܮ‬ƪƷþƷĩƪǢƪƷĩůƢþƷʼnĩƢƷʼnþűþƟƿƢĩűþƷŎŻűþŦŎűƷĩƢĩƪƷěþŦěƿŦþƷŎŻű‫ܒ‬
ȃŎƪƟŻŦŎƷŎěŎǬþƷŎŻűŎƪƢĩǴŦĩěƷĩĢŎűűƿůĩƢŻƿƪǜþǢƪ‫܌‬ŎűěŦƿĢŎűłěŻűƪƷƢþŎűƷƪ
on traditional foreign policy actors and empowerment of the Central Not only does Xi fully control
ŻůůŎƷƷĩĩþűĢƷʼnĩűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢþƟƟþƢþƷƿƪ‫ܒ‬ the key levers of power
in the Central Committee
/ǡþůƟŦĩƪ ŻŁ ƷʼnŎƪ ƟŻŦŎƷŎěŎǬþƷŎŻű Żű ŁŻƢĩŎłű þűĢ űþƷŎŻűþŦ ƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ system but, unlike under
ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł þĚŻƿűĢ‫¼ ܒ‬ʼnĩ rŎűŎƪƷƢǢ ŻŁ FŻƢĩŎłű ŁŁþŎƢƪ ‫ܣ‬rF‫ܤ‬
Deng Xiaoping, for example,
ʼnþƪ ĚĩěŻůĩ ŎűěƢĩþƪŎűłŦǢ ƟŻŦŎƷŎěŎǬĩĢ þűĢ ůþƢłŎűþŦŎǬĩĢ Ŏű þěƷƿþŦ
ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűłŎűƢĩěĩűƷǢĩþƢƪ‫ܒ‬Sű‫܌ږڐڏڑ‬åŎěʼnþűłĩĢƷʼnĩƟþƢƷǢƪĩěƢĩƷþƢǢ there are no political
‫ܣ‬þűĢĢĩƟƿƷǢŁŻƢĩŎłűůŎűŎƪƷĩƢ‫ܤ‬ŁƢŻůþěþƢĩĩƢĢŎƟŦŻůþƷƷŻþ £ŻDzȀěŎþŦ peers who could credibly
ǜŎƷʼnűŻĢŎƟŦŻůþƷŎěƷƢþŎűŎűłŻƢĩǡƟĩƢŎĩűěĩ‫ܒ‬ȃĩ £ƪƷþƢƷĩĢþƟƟŻŎűƷŎűł undermine his authority.
ambassadors to countries that were not directly linked to their career
ƟþƷʼnƪ‫܌‬ŎűþĚƢĩþţŁƢŻůƟþƪƷƟƢþěƷŎěĩ‫ܒ‬NŎłʼn‫ܮ‬ƟƢŻȀŦĩĩǡþůƟŦĩƪŎűěŦƿĢĩƷʼnĩþƟƟŻŎűƷůĩűƷŻŁåŎܼƪŁŻƢůĩƢ
ěŻűȀĢþűƷ¥ŎűGþűłþƪþůĚþƪƪþĢŻƢƷŻƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪþűĢðʼnĩűłðĩłƿþűł‫܌‬þűŻƷĩĢÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ƪƟĩěŎþŦŎƪƷ‫܌‬
þƪþůĚþƪƪþĢŻƢƷŻƷʼnĩÃf‫ܒ‬ȃĩƪĩþűĢŻƷʼnĩƢůŻǛĩƪǜĩƢĩŁŻěƿƪĩĢŻűĚƢĩþţŎűłƿƟĚƿƢĩþƿěƢþƷŎěȀĩŁĢŻůƪ
ǜŎƷʼnŎűƷʼnĩrF‫ܒ‬ȃĩűŎűþůŻǛĩƪŻůĩǜʼnþƷþţŎűƷŻƷʼnĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦþƟƟŻŎűƷĩĩƟƢŻěĩƪƪŎűƪŻůĩàĩƪƷĩƢű
ěŻƿűƷƢŎĩƪ‫ ܌‬åŎ þƟƟŻŎűƷĩĢ ¥Ŏű Gþűł þƪ ŁŻƢĩŎłű ůŎűŎƪƷĩƢ þǼƷĩƢ ƪĩƢǛŎűł ŁŻƢ Ŧĩƪƪ Ʒʼnþű ƷǜŻ ǢĩþƢƪ þƪ Ã‫ܒ®ܒ‬
þůĚþƪƪþĢŻƢĩǛĩűƷʼnŻƿłʼnʼnĩʼnþĢűŻŻƷʼnĩƢƪĩűŎŻƢŻǛĩƢƪĩþƪþůĚþƪƪþĢŻƢŎþŦƟŻƪƷŎűłƪ‫ܒ‬ȃĩƪƿůůĩƢ‫ڒڑڏڑ‬
ƢĩůŻǛþŦŻŁ¥Ŏű‫܌‬þůŎĢƢƿůŻƢƪŻŁěŻƢƢƿƟƷŎŻűþűĢ‫ܘ‬ŻƢĩƪƟŎŻűþłĩ‫܌‬þűĢʼnŎƪƢĩƟŦþěĩůĩűƷǜŎƷʼnàþűłæŎþƢĩ
ǢĩƷ ŻƷʼnĩƢ ƪŎłűƪ ŻŁ ʼnŻǜ ŎűƷĩűƪĩŦǢ ƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦ Ʒʼnĩƪĩ ƷŻƟ ŠŻĚƪ ʼnþǛĩ ĚĩěŻůĩ ƿűĢĩƢ åŎ‫ ܒ‬rŻƢĩŻǛĩƢ‫ ܌‬Ʒʼnĩ ¥Ŏű
ěþƪĩƢþŎƪĩƪþŦŦƪŻƢƷƪŻŁƪĩűƪŎƷŎǛĩơƿĩƪƷŎŻűƪþĚŻƿƷƷʼnĩƟĩƢƪŻűűĩŦƪǢƪƷĩůƿűĢĩƢåŎ‫܋‬ĢŎĢåŎţűŻǜþĚŻƿƷ
¥ŎűܼƪŎƪƪƿĩƪ‫ܗ‬ŎŁƪŻ‫܌‬ƷʼnĩűǜʼnǢƟƢŻůŻƷĩʼnŎů‫ܗ‬ŎŁűŻƷ‫܌‬ƷʼnĩűǜʼnǢǜþƪűܼƷåŎŎűŁŻƢůĩĢ‫ܗ‬þűĢǜþƪåŎܼƪěƢĩĢŎĚŎŦŎƷǢ
ĢþůþłĩĢĚǢƷʼnŎƪĩƟŎƪŻĢĩ‫ܓ‬

SűŻƷʼnĩƢƟþƢƷƪŻŁƷʼnĩŁŻƢĩŎłűþDzŁþŎƢƪƪǢƪƷĩů‫܌‬åŎŎű‫ڑڑڏڑ‬þƟƟŻŎűƷĩĢþűŻƷʼnĩƢěŻűȀĢþűƷþűĢĩǡƟĩƢŎĩűěĩĢ
ĢŎƟŦŻůþƷ‫܌‬hŎƿdŎþűěʼnþŻ‫܌‬ƷŻƢƿűƷʼnĩ £ܼƪSűƷĩƢűþƷŎŻűþŦhŎþŎƪŻű'ĩƟþƢƷůĩűƷ‫ܒ‬NĩŎƪűŻǜƢƿůŻƢĩĢƷŻĚĩ
þ ŦĩþĢŎűł ěþűĢŎĢþƷĩ ƷŻ Ěĩ Ʒʼnĩ űĩǡƷ ŁŻƢĩŎłű ůŎűŎƪƷĩƢ‫ ܌‬þƟƟŻŎűƷĩĢ þƷ Ʒʼnĩ rþƢěʼn ‫ ړڑڏڑ‬t£  ůĩĩƷŎűł‫ ܒ‬åŎ
ĩƪěʼnĩǜĩĢþłĩŦŎůŎƷƪþűĢþŦƪŻþƟƟŻŎűƷĩĢþŦŻűłƷŎůĩŁƢŎĩűĢþűĢěŦŻƪĩþĢǛŎƪŻƢ‫®܌‬Żűł¼þŻ‫܌‬ƷŻĚĩʼnĩþĢŻŁ
Ʒʼnĩ¼þŎǜþűDzŁþŎƢƪDzȀěĩ‫ܤ¼ܣ‬ĢƿƢŎűłþƪĩűƪŎƷŎǛĩƷŎůĩŎűěƢŻƪƪ‫ܮ‬ƪƷƢþŎƷƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪ‫ܒ‬SűþĚƢĩþţŁƢŻůƟþƪƷ
practice, Song retired from the Central Committee in 2022 (due to his age) but was allowed to assume
ƷʼnŎƪůŎűŎƪƷĩƢ‫ܮ‬ŦĩǛĩŦƟŻƪŎƷŎŻűþƷƷʼnĩ¼‫ܒ‬

űŎůƟŻƢƷþűƷĢƢŎǛĩƢŻŁƷʼnŎƪƟŻŦŎƷŎěŎǬþƷŎŻűŻŁŁŻƢĩŎłűƟŻŦŎěǢʼnþƪĚĩĩűåŎܼƪĩƪƷþĚŦŎƪʼnůĩűƷŻŁþƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł
ƪǢƪƷĩůƷʼnþƷƟƢŎŻƢŎƷŎǬĩƪƟĩƢƪŻűþŦŦŻǢþŦƷǢƷŻåŎ‫ܒ‬ƪþƢĩƪƿŦƷŻŁĚŻƷʼněʼnþűłĩƪƷŻƷʼnĩŎűƪƷŎƷƿƷŎŻűþŦƪƷƢƿěƷƿƢĩ
þűĢ ƟĩƢƪŻűűĩŦ ěʼnŻŎěĩƪ‫ ܌‬åŎ ʼnþƪ ƪŎłűþŦĩĢ ƷŻ ůƿěʼn ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ŁŻƢĩŎłű ƟŻŦŎěǢ ĚƿƢĩþƿěƢþěǢ ƷʼnþƷ ŦŻǢþŦƷǢ ƷŻ åŎ
ŎƪůŻƢĩŎůƟŻƢƷþűƷƷʼnþűƟƢŻŁĩƪƪŎŻűþŦŎƪů‫ܒ‬ȃŎƪěƢĩþƷĩƪƪĩǛĩƢþŦĢŎƪƷŻƢƷŎŻűƪŎűƷʼnĩƪǢƪƷĩů‫܌‬ŎűěŦƿĢŎűłþű
ĩűǛŎƢŻűůĩűƷŎűǜʼnŎěʼnƟŻŦŎěǢƪƷþƪŎƪƟƢĩǛþŎŦƪƿűƷŎŦƷʼnĩƷŻƟŦĩþĢĩƢܼƪŎűƷĩűƷŎŻűƪþƢĩěŦĩþƢ‫܌‬þűĢƷʼnĩűƷʼnĩǢ
þƢĩűĩǛĩƢơƿĩƪƷŎŻűĩĢƢĩłþƢĢŦĩƪƪŻŁƷʼnĩěŻƪƷƪ‫ܒ‬SƷþŦƪŻŁŻƪƷĩƢƪŎűěĩűƷŎǛĩƪŁŻƢƟŻŦŎěǢůþţĩƢƪƷŻĩǡěĩƪƪŎǛĩŦǢ
ŎůƟŦĩůĩűƷƟŻŦŎěǢłƿŎĢþűěĩƷŻþǛŻŎĢƷʼnĩƟĩƢěĩƟƷŎŻűŻŁĢŎƪŦŻǢþŦƷǢƷŻåŎܼƪƟŻŦŎěǢěʼnŻŎěĩƪ‫ܒ‬ȃĩŻƢŎłŎűƪŻŁ

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 50 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS

ʼnŎűþǜŻŦŁǜþƢƢŎŻƢĢŎƟŦŻůþěǢĚĩěŻůĩŻĚǛŎŻƿƪŎűƷʼnŎƪƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦěŻűƷĩǡƷ‫ܒ‬73ȃĩƢŎƪţƪŻŁƟŻŦŎěǢŁþŎŦƿƢĩƪþƪþ
ƢĩƪƿŦƷŻŁĚŻƷʼnĢŎƪƷŻƢƷŎŻűƪŎƪƪƿĚƪƷþűƷŎþŦþűĢůþǢþŦƢĩþĢǢĚĩŻěěƿƢƢŎűł‫ܒ‬

rŻƢĩŻǛĩƢ‫ ܌‬ƟŻŦŎƷŎěŎǬþƷŎŻű ŻŁ ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł Ŏƪ ƢĩǴŦĩěƷĩĢ ƷʼnƢŻƿłʼnŻƿƷ Ʒʼnĩ ĚƢŻþĢĩƢ űþƷŎŻűþŦ ƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ
þƟƟþƢþƷƿƪ‫®ܒ‬ŎűěĩěŻůŎűłƷŻŻDzȀěĩ‫܌‬åŎܼƪƿűƢĩŦĩűƷŎűłŁŻěƿƪǜŎƷʼnƷʼnĩ£hʼnþƪĚĩĩűŻűƢĩůŻǛŎűłěŻƢƢƿƟƷ
ŻDzȀěŎþŦƪ‫ ܌‬ƟƢŻůŻƷŎűł ŦŻǢþŦƷǢ ƷŻ ʼnŎůƪĩŦŁ þűĢ Ʒʼnĩ £‫ ܌‬þűĢ ĚƿŎŦĢŎűł Ʒʼnĩ £h ŎűƷŻ þ ƢĩþŦ ȀłʼnƷŎűł ŁŻƢěĩ‫ܒ‬
ÃƪŎűłƷʼnĩþűƷŎ‫ܮ‬ěŻƢƢƿƟƷŎŻűěþůƟþŎłűþűĢŻƷʼnĩƢƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦěþůƟþŎłűƪ‫܌‬åŎʼnþƪŦþƢłĩŦǢþěěŻůƟŦŎƪʼnĩĢƷʼnĩƪĩ
łŻþŦƪ‫ܒ‬SűʼnŎƪȀƢƪƷȀǛĩǢĩþƢƪŎűŻDzȀěĩ‫܌ܤږڐڏڑܫڑڐڏڑܣ‬åŎƢĩůŻǛĩĢůŻƢĩƷʼnþű‫ڏڏڐ‬ƪĩűŎŻƢ£hěŻůůþűĢĩƢƪŎű
þűƷŎ‫ܮ‬ěŻƢƢƿƟƷŎŻűƟƿƢłĩƪþŦŻűĩ‫܌‬ŎűěŦƿĢŎűłƷǜŻǛŎěĩěʼnþŎƢůĩűŻŁƷʼnĩ ĩűƷƢþŦrŎŦŎƷþƢǢ ŻůůŎƪƪŎŻű‫ ܣ‬r ‫ܒܤ‬
Nĩ Ʒʼnĩű ƢĩƟŦþěĩĢ Ʒʼnĩů ǜŎƷʼn ŻDzȀěĩƢƪ þŦŎłűĩĢ ǜŎƷʼn åŎܼƪ ƷʼnŎűţŎűł þűĢ þƟƟƢŻþěʼn‫  ܒ‬Sű ‫ ܌ڔڐڏڑ‬ĩþƢŦǢ Ŏű ʼnŎƪ
ƷĩűƿƢĩ‫܌‬åŎƟƿƪʼnĩĢƷʼnƢŻƿłʼnþʼnŎƪƷŻƢŎěƢĩŁŻƢůŻŁƷʼnĩ£hƷʼnþƷƪʼnƢþűţƷʼnĩƪŎǬĩŻŁƷʼnĩ r þűĢĚĩłþű
ƷʼnĩƟƢŻěĩƪƪŻŁƢĩƪƷƢƿěƷƿƢŎűłŎƷþűĢƷʼnĩĩűƷŎƢĩ£hŎűƷŻþŠŻŎűƷŁŻƢěĩ‫ܒ‬SűĢŻŎűłƪŻ‫܌‬ʼnĩĚƢŻţĩƿƟǛþƢŎŻƿƪ
ƟŻǜĩƢ ěĩűƷĩƢƪ‫ ܒ‬Sű þűŻƷʼnĩƢ ƪƷƢŎţŎűł ůŻǛĩ‫ ܌‬Ŏű ƪƿůůĩƢ ‫ ڒڑڏڑ‬åŎ ƢĩƟŦþěĩĢ Ʒʼnĩ ƷŻƟ ƷǜŻ ěŻůůþűĢĩƢƪ ŻŁ
ƷʼnĩƪƷƢþƷĩłŎěƢŻěţĩƷŁŻƢěĩƪ‫¦®ܣ‬F‫ܤ‬ǜŎƷʼnƷǜŻůŎŦŎƷþƢǢěŻůůþűĢĩƢƪŁƢŻůƷʼnĩűþǛǢþűĢþŎƢŁŻƢěĩǜʼnŻʼnþǛĩ
űŻƟƢŎŻƢĩǡƟĩƢŎĩűěĩǜŎƷʼnƷʼnĩ®¦F‫ܗ‬ƷʼnŎƪʼnþƪűĩǛĩƢĚĩĩűĢŻűĩĚĩŁŻƢĩłŎǛĩűƷʼnĩĩǡƟĩƢƷŎƪĩűĩĩĢĩĢƷŻŦĩþĢ
ʼnŎűþܼƪůŎƪƪŎŦĩŁŻƢěĩƪ‫ܒ‬£ĩƢʼnþƟƪůŻƪƷƪƷƢŎţŎűłŻŁþŦŦ‫܌‬ŎűěƷŻĚĩƢ‫܌ڒڑڏڑ‬åŎƟƿƢłĩĢ
ʼnŎƪʼnþűĢ‫ܮ‬ƟŎěţĩĢĢĩŁĩűƪĩůŎűŎƪƷĩƢ‫܌‬hŎ®ʼnþűłŁƿ‫܌‬ƟƢŻĚþĚŦǢŻǜŎűłƷŻĚŻƷʼnƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦ
One of the greatest
ůŻƷŎǛĩƪþűĢěŻƢƢƿƟƷŎŻű‫ܒ‬
examples of the
politicization of 'ƿƢŎűłƷʼnĩŁŻƢůþƷŎŻűŻŁƷʼnĩűĩǜ r ŎűŁþŦŦ‫܌ڑڑڏڑ‬åŎĢĩůŻűƪƷƢþƷĩĢƷʼnþƷʼnĩǜþƪ
policymaking is ƟƢĩƟþƢĩĢ ƷŻ ĢŎƪěþƢĢ ƟþƪƷ ƟƢþěƷŎěĩ ƷŻ łĩƷ Ʒʼnĩ ůŎŦŎƷþƢǢ ŦĩþĢĩƢƪ ʼnĩ ǜþűƷĩĢ‫ ܋‬Żűĩƪ
the evolution of the ǜʼnŻ þƢĩ ĚŻƷʼn ŦŻǢþŦ þűĢ ěþƟþĚŦĩ‫ ܒ‬Nĩ þƟƟŻŎűƷĩĢ ƷǜŻ łĩűĩƢþŦƪ ǜŎƷʼn ŻƟĩƢþƷŎŻűþŦ
national security ĩǡƟĩƢŎĩűěĩ ƷŻ ŦĩþĢ Ʒʼnĩ r  ‫ܣ‬Ŏű Ʒʼnĩ ƟþƪƷ‫ ܌‬Żűĩ ʼnþĢ þ ƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦ ěŻůůŎƪƪþƢ
ĚþěţłƢŻƿűĢ‫ܒܤ‬NĩþŦƪŻĢŎƪěþƢĢĩĢþłĩűŻƢůƪƷŻƢĩƷþŎű‫ܮڑږ‬ǢĩþƢ‫ܮ‬ŻŦĢðʼnþűłæŻƿǡŎþ
system under Xi.
þƪŻűĩŻŁƷʼnĩǛŎěĩěʼnþŎƢůĩű‫ܒ‬FŎűþŦŦǢ‫܌‬ŎƷŎƪűŻƷþĚŦĩƷʼnþƷåŎʼnþƪƪƷŎŦŦűŻƷþƟƟŻŎűƷĩĢþ
ěŎǛŎŦŎþűƪƿěěĩƪƪŻƢƷŻĚĩþǛŎěĩěʼnþŎƢůþűŻŁƷʼnĩ r ‫܌‬þƪĚŻƷʼnNƿdŎűƷþŻþűĢdŎþűł
ðĩůŎűĢŎĢĚĩŁŻƢĩĚĩěŻůŎűłƷʼnĩƷŻƟŦĩþĢĩƢ‫ܒ‬åŎܼƪƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦěŻűƷƢŻŦŻǛĩƢƷʼnĩůŎŦŎƷþƢǢěŻƿŦĢűŻƷĚĩůŻƢĩ
ƢŻĚƿƪƷƷŻĢþǢĩǛĩűþƪʼnĩěŻűƷŎűƿĩƪƷŻƟƿƪʼnŎƷƷŻĚĩěŻůĩþŦĩƷʼnþŦȀłʼnƷŎűłŁŻƢěĩ‫ܒ‬74

űĩ ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ łƢĩþƷĩƪƷ ĩǡþůƟŦĩƪ ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ƟŻŦŎƷŎěŎǬþƷŎŻű ŻŁ ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł Ŏƪ Ʒʼnĩ ĩǛŻŦƿƷŎŻű ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ űþƷŎŻűþŦ
ƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ ƪǢƪƷĩů ƿűĢĩƢ åŎ‫ ܒ‬NŎƪ ěƢĩþƷŎŻű ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ tþƷŎŻűþŦ ®ĩěƿƢŎƷǢ ŻůůŎƪƪŎŻű ǜþƪ űŻƷ ŠƿƪƷ þĚŻƿƷ
ěĩűƷƢþŦŎǬŎűł ĢĩěŎƪŎŻű‫ܮ‬ůþţŎűł Ŏű Ʒʼnĩ £ þƟƟþƢþƷƿƪ ‫ܣ‬ǜŎƷʼn þ ŁŻěƿƪ Żű ƪƷƢþƷĩłŎě ƟŦþűűŎűł þűĢ ěƢŎƪŎƪ
ƢĩƪƟŻűƪĩ‫ܤ‬ĚƿƷǜþƪþŦƪŻþĚŻƿƷƟƢŻůŻƷŎűłåŎܼƪŻǜűŎĢĩþƪŻűűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢƷʼnƢŻƿłʼnƷʼnĩĩűƷŎƢĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ
ƪǢƪƷĩů‫܌‬ĚŻƷʼnƟþƢƷǢþűĢƪƷþƷĩ‫ܒ‬þƪĩĢŻűĚŻƷʼnƷʼnĩěŻůůŎƪƪŎŻűþűĢʼnŎƪܹěŻůƟƢĩʼnĩűƪŎǛĩűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ
ěŻűěĩƟƷܺ‫ܣ‬䚪⡤㕂㹻㸝Ⰼ錜‫܌ܤ‬åŎŎűŎƷŎþƷĩĢƷʼnĩěƢĩþƷŎŻűŻŁþűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢƪǢƪƷĩůƷʼnþƷűŻǜĩǡŎƪƷƪþƷ
þŦŦƷŎĩƢƪŻŁƷʼnĩƟþƢƷǢƪǢƪƷĩůĢŻǜűƷŻƷʼnĩěŻƿűƷǢŦĩǛĩŦ‫ܒ‬ěěŻƢĢŎűłƷŻÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬tþƷŎŻűþŦ'ĩŁĩűƪĩÃűŎǛĩƢƪŎƷǢ
ƪěʼnŻŦþƢ dŻĩŦ àƿƷʼnűŻǜ‫ ܌‬ƷʼnŎƪ ěŻůůŎƪƪŎŻűܹƪŎƷƪ þƷŻƟ þ űĩǜ ŻƢłþűŎǬþƷŎŻűþŦ ʼnŎĩƢþƢěʼnǢ ƷʼnþƷ ƪƷƢĩűłƷʼnĩűƪ
åŎܼƪþĚŎŦŎƷǢƷŻƪĩƷƷʼnĩþłĩűĢþþűĢŎůƟƢŻǛĩƪƷʼnĩƟþƢƷǢܼƪþĚŎŦŎƷǢƷŻ쯯ƢĢŎűþƷĩűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢþDzŁþŎƢƪ‫ڔږܺܒ‬
In recent years, this system has been augmented by new laws on cybersecurity, data protection,

73 See chapter 6 in Zhao, The Dragon Roars Back.

74 Lyle J. Morris, “What China’s New Central Military Commission Tells Us about Xi’s Military Strategy,” Asia Society Policy Institute, October 27,
2022, at https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/what-chinas-new-central-military-commission-tells-us-about-xis-military-strategy
75 Joel Wuthnow, “A New Chinese National Security Bureaucracy Emerges,” China Brief, vol. 21, issue 23, October 2021, at https://jamestown.
org/program/early-warning-brief-a-new-chinese-national-security-bureaucracy-emerges/; Wuthnow, “China’s New ‘Black Box’: Prospects
for the Central National Security Commission,” China Quarterly 232 (2017), at https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2022-01/Joel_Wuth-
now_Testimony.pdf

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 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS 51

ěŻƿűƷĩƢĩƪƟŎŻűþłĩ‫܌‬þűĢŁŻƢĩŎłűtGƪŎű ʼnŎűþþƪǜĩŦŦþƪƟĩƢƪŻűűĩŦěʼnþűłĩƪŎűĚŻƷʼnƷʼnĩƪƷþƷĩƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ
þűĢƟƿĚŦŎěƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢƪǢƪƷĩůƪ‫ܒ‬

ŦŦƷʼnĩƪĩŻƢłþűŎǬþƷŎŻűþŦþűĢŦĩłþŦěʼnþűłĩƪʼnþǛĩłŎǛĩűƷʼnĩƪĩƢĩěĩűƷŎűƪƷŎƷƿƷŎŻűƪƷʼnĩŦþƷŎƷƿĢĩƷŻĚĩůŻƢĩ
þłłƢĩƪƪŎǛĩŎűƷʼnĩŎƢþěƷŎǛŎƷŎĩƪƷŻǜþƢĢŎűƷĩƢþěƷŎŻűƪǜŎƷʼnůþűǢƟþƢƷƪŻŁÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ƪŻěŎĩƷǢ‫܌‬ŁƢŻůĚƿƪŎűĩƪƪĩƪƷŻ
ƪƷƿĢĩűƷƪ ƷŻ tG ƢĩƟƢĩƪĩűƷþƷŎǛĩƪ ŻƟĩƢþƷŎűł Ŏű ʼnŎűþ‫ ܒ‬ȃĩ þĢǛĩűƷ ŻŁ ǜŻŦŁ ǜþƢƢŎŻƢ ĢŎƟŦŻůþěǢ ǜþƪ þű
ĩþƢŦǢ ůþűŎŁĩƪƷþƷŎŻű ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩƪĩ ƟĩƢƪŻűűĩŦ þűĢ ŻƢłþűŎǬþƷŎŻűþŦ ěʼnþűłĩƪ þűĢ Ʒʼnĩ ŎűěĩűƷŎǛĩƪ ŎűʼnĩƢĩűƷ Ŏű
Ʒʼnĩů‫' ܒ‬ƿƢŎűł Ʒʼnĩ ßS' ƟþűĢĩůŎě Ŏű ‫ ܌ڏڑڏڑ‬ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ĢŎƟŦŻůþƷƪ Ŏű ĩŎŠŎűł þűĢ ƟŻƪƷĩĢ þĚƢŻþĢ ǜĩƢĩ
ĩűěŻƿƢþłĩĢ ƷŻ ƿƪĩ ěþƿƪƷŎě Ŧþűłƿþłĩ ƷŻ ěƢŎƷŎěŎǬĩ ŻƷʼnĩƢ ěŻƿűƷƢŎĩƪ‫ ܌‬ĢĩůþűĢŎűł ƢĩƟþƢþƷŎŻűƪ ŁŻƢ ܹþűƷŎ‫ܮ‬
ʼnŎűþܺ ĚĩʼnþǛŎŻƢ þűĢ Ŏű ƪŻůĩ ěþƪĩƪ ŎůƟŻƪŎűł ƟĩűþŦƷŎĩƪ Żű ěŻƿűƷƢŎĩƪ þűĢ ŎűĢŎǛŎĢƿþŦƪ ǜʼnŻ ěƢŎƷŎěŎǬĩĢ
ʼnŎűþ‫ܒ‬rƿěʼnŻŁƷʼnŎƪþěƷŎǛŎƷǢǜþƪĢŎƢĩěƷĩĢþƷƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪþűĢŎƷƪþŦŦŎĩƪ‫܌‬ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢĢƿƢŎűłƷʼnĩƟĩþţ
ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ßS' ƟþűĢĩůŎě Ŏű ‫ ڕږܒڏڑڏڑ‬ƿƪƷƢþŦŎþܼƪ ĩǡƟĩƢŎĩűěĩ ŻŁ ʼnþǛŎűł ůƿŦƷŎƟŦĩ ƷþƢŎDzŁƪ ŎůƟŻƪĩĢ Żű ŎƷƪ
ĩǡƟŻƢƷƪƷŻ ʼnŎűþƪƷþűĢƪþƪþűŻƷþĚŦĩĩǡþůƟŦĩ‫ܒ‬

SűŻƷʼnĩƢþƢĩþƪ‫܌‬űƿůĩƢŻƿƪÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬tGƪ‫܌‬ƪƿěʼnþƪƷʼnĩůĩƢŎěþűþƢƪƪŻěŎþƷŎŻű‫܌‬ǜĩƢĩŁŻƢěĩĢƷŻŦĩþǛĩ ʼnŎűþ
þǼƷĩƢƷʼnĩþĢŻƟƷŎŻűŻŁƷʼnĩ‫ږڐڏڑ‬ŁŻƢĩŎłűtGŦþǜ‫ܒ‬ȃĩƪƟƢŎűł‫ڒڑڏڑ‬ƢþŎĢƪþűĢŎűƪƟĩěƷŎŻűƪŻŁÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ěŻűƪƿŦƷŎűł
ȀƢůƪŎűĩŎŠŎűłþűĢ®ʼnþűłʼnþŎŻDzŁĩƢþƢĩěĩűƷþűĢʼnŎłʼn‫ܮ‬ƟƢŻȀŦĩĩǡþůƟŦĩŻŁƷʼnĩűĩǜŦǢĩůƟŻǜĩƢĩĢƢŻŦĩŻŁ
űþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢŻƢłþűƪŎű ʼnŎűþܼƪĩěŻűŻůŎěþDzŁþŎƢƪ‫ܒ‬ȃĩƪĩȀƢůƪ‫܌‬ƪƿěʼnþƪrŎűƷǬGƢŻƿƟ‫ ܌‬þƟßŎƪŎŻű‫܌‬þűĢ
þŎű‫ ޣ‬Ż‫܌ܒ‬ǜĩƢĩƢþŎĢĩĢĚǢƷʼnĩrŎűŎƪƷƢǢŻŁ®ƷþƷĩ®ĩěƿƢŎƷǢ‫ܣ‬r®®‫ܤ‬ĚĩěþƿƪĩƷʼnĩǢǜĩƢĩƢĩƟŻƢƷĩĢŦǢěŻűĢƿěƷŎűł
research and gathering information on business sectors and companies that touched on national
ƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢŎƪƪƿĩƪ‫®ܒ‬ŻůĩŻŁƷʼnĩƪĩŎűǛĩƪƷŎłþƷŎŻűƪěŻűƷŎűƿĩĢǜĩŦŦŎűƷŻ‫܌ڒڑڏڑ‬ŎűěŦƿĢŎűłƷʼnĩĢĩƷĩűƷŎŻűŻŁþ
dþƟþűĩƪĩƟʼnþƢůþěĩƿƷŎěþŦĩǡĩěƿƷŎǛĩþűĢƷʼnĩŁþŦŦ‫ڒڑڏڑ‬þƢƢĩƪƷŻŁþűĩǡĩěƿƷŎǛĩþűĢƷǜŻŁŻƢůĩƢĩůƟŦŻǢĩĩƪŻŁ
ࣣ‫܌‬ŻűĩŻŁƷʼnĩǜŻƢŦĢܼƪŦþƢłĩƪƷþĢǛĩƢƷŎƪŎűłěŻůƟþűŎĩƪ‫ܒ‬ȃŎƪþƟƟĩþƢƪƷŻƢĩǴŦĩěƷþűĩǜůþűĢþƷĩŁŻƢƷʼnĩƪĩ
űþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢŻƢłþűƪƷʼnþƷƟƢĩǛŎŻƿƪŦǢǜþƪƷʼnĩƢĩƪƟŻűƪŎĚŎŦŎƷǢŻŁ
ĩěŻűŻůŎěŻƢłþűƪ‫ܒ‬ȃĩŁþěƷƷʼnþƷ ʼnĩűæŎǡŎű‫܌‬ƷʼnĩʼnĩþĢŻŁƷʼnĩr®® If the economic bureaucracy
ǜþƪƟƿƷŎűěʼnþƢłĩŻŁþěƢþěţĢŻǜűŻűŁŻƢĩŎłűěŻűƪƿŦƷŎűłȀƢůƪŎƪ in China becomes increasingly
þƪƷƢŻűłŎűĢŎěþƷŎŻűŻŁűŻƷŻűŦǢåŎܼƪƟƢŎŻƢŎƷǢŻűűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ subordinate to not just the
ĚƿƷþŦƪŻŻŁʼnŎƪǜŎŦŦŎűłűĩƪƪƷŻƿƪĩƷʼnĩr®®ŎűƪƷĩþĢŻŁĩěŻűŻůŎě
ƷĩěʼnűŻěƢþƷƪƷŻþĢĢƢĩƪƪƷʼnĩƪĩŎƪƪƿĩƪ‫ܒ‬åŎþƟƟĩþƢƪƷŻĚĩǜŎŦŦŎűłƷŻ
CCP apparatus but also to the
þŦŎĩűþƷĩŁŻƢĩŎłűěŻůƟþűŎĩƪ‫܌‬ŎűěŦƿĢŎűłÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ȀƢůƪ‫܌‬ŎűʼnŎƪĩDzŁŻƢƷƷŻ national security bureaucracy,
77 then China’s economic relations
ĚĩƷƷĩƢƟƢŻƷĩěƷ ʼnŎűþܼƪĩěŻűŻůŎěþűĢŎĢĩŻŦŻłŎěþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ‫ܒ‬
with the United States and those
FŻƢåŎ‫܌‬ƷʼnĩƪĩþěƷŎǛŎƷŎĩƪþƢĩþĚŻƿƷƿƪŎűłƪƷþƷĩƟŻǜĩƢƷŻþĢǛþűěĩþ linked with its China stategy will
broad conception of national security that sees the United States become even more challenging.
þƪþűĩǡŎƪƷĩűƷŎþŦƷʼnƢĩþƷƷŻ ʼnŎűþܼƪƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦƪǢƪƷĩůþűĢĩěŻűŻůǢ‫܌‬
ĩǛĩűþƷƷʼnĩƢŎƪţŻŁþŦŎĩűþƷŎűłàĩƪƷĩƢűěŻůƟþűŎĩƪþűĢłŻǛĩƢűůĩűƷƪ‫ܒ‬78 If the economic bureaucracy in
China becomes increasingly subordinate to not just the CCP apparatus but also to the national security
ĚƿƢĩþƿěƢþěǢ‫܌‬Ʒʼnĩű ʼnŎűþܼƪĩěŻűŻůŎěƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪǜŎƷʼnƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪþűĢƷʼnŻƪĩŦŎűţĩĢǜŎƷʼnŎƷƪ ʼnŎűþ
ƪƷþƷĩłǢǜŎŦŦĚĩěŻůĩĩǛĩűůŻƢĩěʼnþŦŦĩűłŎűł‫ܒ‬

76 For a comprehensive study of this phenomena, see Peter Martin, China’s Civilian Army: The Making of Wolf Warrior Diplomacy (Oxford: Oxford
University Press, 2021).
77 Lingling Wei, “China Puts Spymaster in Charge of Corporate Crackdown,” Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2023, at https://www.wsj.com/articles/
china-crackdown-foreign-companies-chen-yixin-9b403893
78 Wei, “China Puts Spymaster in Charge of Corporate Crackdown.”

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52 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS

PRIORITIES AND INCENTIVES

A third broad channel through which to understand the relationship between domestic politics and
ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł Ŏű ʼnŎűþ Ŏƪ ĚǢ ĩǡþůŎűŎűł åŎܼƪ ƟƢŎŻƢŎƷŎĩƪ þűĢ Ʒʼnĩ ŎűěĩűƷŎǛĩƪ ƷʼnþƷ ǴŦŻǜ ŁƢŻů Ʒʼnĩů‫ ܒ‬åŎܼƪ
ƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦ‫܌‬ĩěŻűŻůŎě‫܌‬þűĢĢŎƟŦŻůþƷŎěƟƢŎŻƢŎƷŎĩƪƢĩǛĩþŦŎůƟŻƢƷþűƷƟƢĩŁĩƢĩűěĩƪþűĢƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűłĢǢűþůŎěƪ
Ŏű ʼnŎűþ‫܌‬ŎűěŦƿĢŎűłƷʼnŻƪĩƢĩŦþƷĩĢƷŻÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪ‫ܒ‬åŎʼnþƪůþĢĩůþŠŻƢěʼnþűłĩƪŎűþŦŦƷʼnĩƪĩþƢĩþƪ
ŻǛĩƢƷʼnĩƟþƪƷ‫ڏڐ‬ǢĩþƢƪ‫܌‬ŻDzŁĩƢŎűłþǜŎűĢŻǜŎűƷŻʼnŎƪƷʼnŎűţŎűłþűĢþƟƟƢŻþěʼnƷŻƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪ‫ܒ‬ȃĩƪĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦ
ƟƢŎŻƢŎƷŎĩƪěƢĩþƷĩƷʼnĩěŻűƷĩǡƷþűĢƷʼnĩŎűěĩűƷŎǛĩƪŎűǜʼnŎěʼnƟĩŻƟŦĩþűĢŎűƪƷŎƷƿƷŎŻűƪŎű ʼnŎűþŁŻƢůƿŦþƷĩ
þűĢĩǡĩěƿƷĩƟŻŦŎěǢƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܒ‬

åŎܼƪ ĢŻůĩƪƷŎě ƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦ þłĩűĢþ Ŏű Ʒʼnĩ ƟþƪƷ ĢĩěþĢĩ ʼnþƪ Ěĩĩű űŻƷʼnŎűł ƪʼnŻƢƷ ŻŁ ƢĩǛŻŦƿƷŎŻűþƢǢ ‫ܣ‬ŻƢ
ěŻƿűƷĩƢƢĩǛŻŦƿƷŎŻűþƢǢ‫ ܒܤ‬SƷ ʼnþƪ ĩůĚƢþěĩĢ ƪĩǛĩƢþŦ ţĩǢ űĩǜ ěŻůƟŻűĩűƷƪ‫ ܒ‬FŎƢƪƷ‫ ܌‬åŎ ʼnþƪ ƿűĢĩƢƷþţĩű þ
ƪƿĚƪƷþűƷŎþŦ ŻǛĩƢʼnþƿŦ ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ƟþƢƷǢ‫ܮ‬ƪƷþƷĩ ƪǢƪƷĩů Ŏű ǜþǢƪ ƷʼnþƷ ěŻŦŦĩěƷŎǛĩŦǢ þůŻƿűƷ ƷŻ ʼnŎƪƷŻƢŎě ěʼnþűłĩƪ
ŎűʼnŻǜŎƷŻƟĩƢþƷĩƪþűĢʼnŻǜŎƷƢĩŦþƷĩƪƷŻƪŻěŎĩƷǢ‫¼ܒ‬ŻþǛŻŎĢƷʼnĩŁþƷĩŻŁƷʼnĩ®ŻǛŎĩƷÃűŎŻű‫܌‬åŎƪƷþƢƷĩĢŻű
ĢþǢŻűĩƷŻěŦĩþűƿƟƷʼnĩ £ƷŻƢĩŠƿǛĩűþƷĩŎƷƪŻƢłþűŎǬþƷŎŻűþŦ‫܌‬ŎĢĩŻŦŻłŎěþŦ‫܌‬þűĢƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦŎűƷĩłƢŎƷǢ‫ܒ‬ŦŦ
ŻŁƷʼnŎƪǜþƪůĩþűƷƷŻƪƷĩůƷʼnĩ £ܼƪĢĩěþǢþűĢŎűŠĩěƷűĩǜůŎƪƪŎŻűþűĢǛŎƷþŦŎƷǢŎűƷŻŎƷ‫܌‬ǜŎƷʼnþŁŻěƿƪŻű
ŻƢłþűŎǬþƷŎŻűþŦƢĩƪŎŦŎĩűěĩþűĢŎĢĩŻŦŻłŎěþŦĢŎƪěŎƟŦŎűĩ‫ܒ‬ƪþƢĩƪƿŦƷŻŁƷʼnĩƪĩěʼnþűłĩƪ‫܌‬åŎʼnþƪŎűěƢĩþƪĩĢƷʼnĩ
ƢŻŦĩŻŁƷʼnĩ £ŎűþŦŦþƪƟĩěƷƪŻŁƷʼnĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦ‫܌‬ĩěŻűŻůŎě‫܌‬þűĢƪŻěŎþŦŦŎŁĩŻŁ ʼnŎűĩƪĩěŎƷŎǬĩűƪ‫ܒ‬ȃĩ £
űŻǜʼnþƪłƢĩþƷĩƢþƿƷʼnŻƢŎƷǢ‫ܪ‬ĢĩŁþěƷŻ and ĢĩŠƿƢĩ‫ܪ‬ŎűłŻǛĩƢűůĩűƷþĢůŎűŎƪƷƢþƷŎŻűþűĢƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł‫܌‬þƪ
ǜĩŦŦþƪŎűƷʼnĩěŎǛŎěŦŎŁĩŻŁ ʼnŎűĩƪĩěŎƷŎǬĩűƪ‫®ܒ‬ŎůƟŦǢƟƿƷ‫ ܌‬ʼnŎűþŎƪűŻǜþůŻƢĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦƟŦþěĩƷŻŦŎǛĩþűĢ
ŻƟĩƢþƷĩƷʼnþűþƷþűǢƷŎůĩŎűƷʼnĩƟþƪƷ‫ڏڑ‬ǢĩþƢƪ‫ܒ‬

®ĩěŻűĢ‫܌‬åŎʼnþƪƪŻƿłʼnƷƷŻƿƟĢþƷĩƷʼnĩƪŻěŎþŦěŻűƷƢþěƷŎű ʼnŎűþ‫ܒ‬åŎƪʼnŎǼƷĩĢƷʼnĩ £ܼƪƟƢŎŻƢŎƷǢŁƢŻůƷʼnĩ

þěěƿůƿŦþƷŎŻű ŻŁ łƢŻǜƷʼn þűĢ ŎűĢŎǛŎĢƿþŦ ǜĩþŦƷʼn ƷŻ þ ŁŻěƿƪ Żű ʼnŎłʼnĩƢ‫ܮ‬ơƿþŦŎƷǢ łƢŻǜƷʼn þűĢ ůĩĩƷŎűł
Ʒʼnĩ ƟĩŻƟŦĩܼƪ űĩĩĢ ŁŻƢ þ ĚĩƷƷĩƢ ơƿþŦŎƷǢ ŻŁ ŦŎŁĩ‫ ܒ‬ȃŎƪ ǜþƪ ěþƟƷƿƢĩĢ Ŏű Ʒʼnĩ ƢĩĢĩȀűŎƷŎŻű ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ƟƢŎűěŎƟþŦ
ěŻűƷƢþĢŎěƷŎŻű‫ܪ‬Ʒʼnĩ £ܼƪŎěŻűŎěŠƿƪƷŎȀěþƷŎŻűŻŁŎƷƪƢƿŦĩ‫ܪ‬ĢƿƢŎűłƷʼnĩ‫ژڐ‬th Party Congress in 2017, which
ǜþƪƷʼnĩȀƢƪƷƷŎůĩƷʼnŎƪǜþƪĢŻűĩƪŎűěĩ‫ܒڑڗژڐ‬åŎʼnþƪƪŎűěĩŁŻěƿƪĩĢŻűƢĩĢƿěŎűłŎűěŻůĩŎűĩơƿþŦŎƷǢ‫܌‬ƟŻǛĩƢƷǢ
þŦŦĩǛŎþƷŎŻű‫܌‬þűĢůŻƪƷƢĩěĩűƷŦǢƷʼnĩþƢƷŎěƿŦþƷŎŻűĚǢåŎŻŁþŁŻěƿƪŻűěŻůůŻűƟƢŻƪƟĩƢŎƷǢþƪŎƷƢĩŦþƷĩƪƷŻƷʼnĩ
ƟƢŎǛþƷĩƪĩěƷŻƢŎű ʼnŎűþ‫ܒ‬FŻƢåŎ‫܌‬þĢĢƢĩƪƪŎűłĩěŻűŻůŎěŎűĩơƿþŦŎƷǢŎƪĩƪƪĩűƷŎþŦƷŻĩűƪƿƢŎűłƪŻěŎþŦƪƷþĚŎŦŎƷǢ
þűĢƪƿƟƟŻƢƷŁŻƢƷʼnĩ £ŁŻƢƷʼnĩŦŻűłƷĩƢů‫ܒ‬SƷŎƪþůŻűłʼnŎƪƷŻƟƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦƟƢŎŻƢŎƷŎĩƪ‫ܒ‬

ƷʼnŎƢĢĢŻůĩƪƷŎěƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦƟƢŎŻƢŎƷǢŁŻƢåŎŎƪŁŻƢłŎűłþěŻůƟƢĩʼnĩűƪŎǛĩűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢƪƷþƷĩ‫ܒ‬FƢŻůƷʼnĩ
ĩþƢŦŎĩƪƷĢþǢƪŻŁʼnŎƪƷĩűƿƢĩ‫܌‬åŎʼnþƪþƢƷŎěƿŦþƷĩĢþǛŎĩǜŻŁűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢƷʼnþƷƪĩĩƪƷʼnƢĩþƷƪĩůþűþƷŎűł
ŁƢŻů þŦŦ ěŻƢűĩƢƪ ŻŁ ƪŻěŎĩƷǢ þűĢ ǜʼnŎěʼn ƟŻƪŎƷƪ þƷ ŦĩþƪƷ ‫ ڐڐ‬ŁŻƢůƪ ŻŁ űþƷŎŻűþŦ ƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ‫ ܒ‬åŎ þűĢ Ʒʼnĩ £
þƟƟþƢþƷƿƪ ƷþŦţ þĚŻƿƷ ƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦ ƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ þűĢ ŎĢĩŻŦŻłŎěþŦ ƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ ǜŎƷʼn ƿƢłĩűěǢ‫ ܒ‬GŎǛĩű Ʒʼnĩ ƪþŦŎĩűěĩ ŻŁ
űþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢŎűåŎܼƪ ʼnŎűþ‫܌‬Ʒʼnĩ £ʼnþƪƪŻƿłʼnƷƷŻĚƿŎŦĢƷʼnĩŻƢłþűŎǬþƷŎŻűþŦþűĢŎĢĩŻŦŻłŎěþŦĚþƪŎƪŁŻƢ
ƟƢŻƷĩěƷŎűł ʼnŎűþŁƢŻůƷʼnŎƪĢŎǛĩƢƪŎƷǢŻŁƷʼnƢĩþƷƪ‫ܒ‬ȃŎƪʼnþƪůþűŎŁĩƪƷĩĢŎűűĩǜěþƟþĚŎŦŎƷŎĩƪƷŻþűƷŎěŎƟþƷĩ‫܌‬
identify, and respond to threats from within China, with a particular focus on the link between external
ŎĢĩþƪþűĢþěƷŻƢƪþűĢƷʼnĩŎƢĩDzŁĩěƷ‫ܪ‬ĢŎƢĩěƷþűĢŎűĢŎƢĩěƷ‫ܪ‬Żű ʼnŎűĩƪĩƪŻěŎĩƷǢ‫ܒ‬ȃĩŦþǜƪŻűŁŻƢĩŎłűtGƪ‫܌‬
ĢþƷþƟƢŻƷĩěƷŎŻű‫܌‬ěŻƿűƷĩƢĩƪƟŎŻűþłĩ‫܌‬þűĢůŻƪƷƢĩěĩűƷŦǢŻűŁŻƢĩŎłűþDzŁþŎƢƪþƢĩĩǡþůƟŦĩƪŻŁƪƿěʼnƷŻŻŦƪ‫ܒ‬åŎ
ʼnþƪŎűƢĩěĩűƷǢĩþƢƪƪŻƿłʼnƷƷŻŻƟĩƢþƷŎŻűþŦŎǬĩƷʼnĩƪĩűĩǜěþƟþĚŎŦŎƷŎĩƪǜŎƷʼnłƢĩþƷĩƢŎűǛþƪŎǛĩűĩƪƪŻŁűþƷŎŻűþŦ
ƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ ŻƢłþűƪ ŎűƷŻ ěŻůůĩƢěŎþŦ‫ ܌‬ȀűþűěŎþŦ‫ ܌‬þűĢ ƪŻěŎþŦ þDzŁþŎƢƪ ŻŁ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ þűĢ ŁŻƢĩŎłű ěŻůƟþűŎĩƪ
þűĢƟĩŻƟŦĩƪ‫ܒ‬

åŎܼƪƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦƟƢŎŻƢŎƷŎĩƪþƢĩþŦƪŻƢĩǴŦĩěƷĩĢŎűʼnŎƪĩěŻűŻůŎěþłĩűĢþ‫ܒ‬/ěŻűŻůŎěłƢŻǜƷʼnŎƪűŻŦŻűłĩƢƷʼnĩƷŻƟ
ƟƢŎŻƢŎƷǢŁŻƢʼnŎů‫ܒ‬àʼnĩűʼnĩĢŎƪěƿƪƪĩƪƷʼnĩܹƷŻƟ‫ܮ‬ŦĩǛĩŦĢĩƪŎłűܺŻŁ ʼnŎűþܼƪĩěŻűŻůǢ‫܌‬ʼnĩŎƪűŻƷŠƿƪƷŁŻěƿƪĩĢ

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 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS 53

Żű łƢŻǜƷʼn þűĢ ʼnþƪ ĢĩůŻűƪƷƢþƷĩĢ þ ǜŎŦŦŎűłűĩƪƪ ƷŻ ƷŻŦĩƢþƷĩ ƪŻůĩ þƿƪƷĩƢŎƷǢ ƷŻ þěʼnŎĩǛĩ ʼnŎƪ ǛŎƪŎŻűƪ‫ ܒ‬Sű
ěŻűƷƢþƪƷƷŻŦĩþĢĩƢƪŻŁƷʼnĩƟþƪƷ‫ڏړ‬ǢĩþƢƪ‫܌‬åŎŎƪűŻǜŁŻěƿƪĩĢŻűłƢŻǜƷʼnŎűþĢĢŎƷŎŻű to national security,
ƪĩŦŁ‫ܮ‬ƪƿDzȀěŎĩűěǢ‫܌‬ƷĩěʼnűŻŦŻłŎěþŦƿƟłƢþĢŎűł‫܌‬þűĢŎűűŻǛþƷŎŻűþűĢƪŻěŎþŦĩơƿŎƷǢ‫ܒ‬

åŎŎƪěŻűěĩűƷƢþƷŎűłŻűĚƿŎŦĢŎűłþűĩěŻűŻůǢƷʼnþƷŎƪĚŻƷʼnƷĩěʼnűŻŦŻłŎěþŦŦǢŎűűŻǛþƷŎǛĩþűĢƪĩŦŁ‫ܮ‬ƢĩŦŎþűƷ‫܌‬
þűĢ þŦƪŻ ůŻƢĩ ĢƢŎǛĩű ĚǢ Ʒʼnĩ ƪƷþƷĩ ƢþƷʼnĩƢ Ʒʼnþű Ʒʼnĩ ƟƢŎǛþƷĩ ƪĩěƷŻƢ‫ ܒ‬Nĩ ǜþűƷƪ þű ĩěŻűŻůǢ Ŏű ǜʼnŎěʼn
ƷĩěʼnűŻŦŻłŎěþŦ ĚƢĩþţƷʼnƢŻƿłʼnƪ ĢƢŎǛĩ ƟƢŻĢƿěƷŎǛŎƷǢ þűĢ łƢŻǜƷʼn‫ ܌‬þƪ ŻƟƟŻƪĩĢ ƷŻ
ƢĩŦǢŎűłŻűƷʼnĩŻŦĢłƢŻǜƷʼnĢƢŎǛĩƢƪŻŁěŻűƪƷƢƿěƷŎŻű‫܌‬ůþűƿŁþěƷƿƢŎűł‫܌‬þűĢĩǡƟŻƢƷƪ‫ܒ‬ Xi’s political priorities
åŎ Ŏƪ ĩǛĩű ƪţĩƟƷŎěþŦ ŻŁ ěŻűƪƿůƟƷŎŻű þƪ þ ůþŠŻƢ łƢŻǜƷʼn ĢƢŎǛĩƢ‫ ܌‬ŁĩþƢŎűł ƷʼnþƷ are also reflected in
China will face the political problems confronting many Western economies,
his economic agenda.
ƪƿěʼn þƪ ĢĩŎűĢƿƪƷƢŎþŦŎǬþƷŎŻű þűĢ ŎűěŻůĩ ŎűĩơƿþŦŎƷǢ‫ ܒ‬FŻƢ åŎ‫ ܌‬ƷĩěʼnűŻŦŻłǢ
ƿƟłƢþĢŎűł ŁŻƢ þĢǛþűěĩĢ ůþűƿŁþěƷƿƢŎűł Ŏƪ ţĩǢ ƷŻ ƪƿƪƷþŎűĩĢ łƢŻǜƷʼn ŻǛĩƢ Ʒʼnĩ Economic growth is
ŦŻűłƷĩƢůűŻǜƷʼnþƷ ʼnŎűþܼƪĩěŻűŻůǢʼnþƪłƢŻǜűþűĢůþƷƿƢĩĢ‫ܒ‬åŎǜþűƷƪ ʼnŎűþ no longer the top
to remain a manufacturing superpower but for China to be at the center of priority for him.
þĢǛþűěĩĢůþűƿŁþěƷƿƢŎűłŎűƪĩěƷŻƢƪƪƿěʼnþƪĩŦĩěƷƢŎěǛĩʼnŎěŦĩƪ‫܌‬ĚþƷƷĩƢŎĩƪ‫܌‬łƢĩĩű
ƷĩěʼnűŻŦŻłǢ‫܌‬þűĢƢŻĚŻƷŎěƪþűĢþƿƷŻůþƷŎŻű‫ܒ‬SűƪʼnŻƢƷ‫܌‬åŎǜþűƷƪ ʼnŎűþܼƪĩěŻűŻůǢƷŻŦŻŻţůŻƢĩŦŎţĩƷʼnþƷŻŁ
GĩƢůþűǢ‫ܣ‬Ŏ‫ܒ‬ĩ‫܌ܒ‬ĢƢŎǛĩűĚǢþĢǛþűěĩĢůþűƿŁþěƷƿƢŎűł‫ܤ‬þűĢŦĩƪƪŦŎţĩƷʼnþƷŻŁƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܣ‬Ŏ‫ܒ‬ĩ‫܌ܒ‬ĢƢŎǛĩűĚǢ
ěŻűƪƿůƟƷŎŻűþűĢƪĩƢǛŎěĩƪ‫ܒܤ‬

ƷƷʼnĩƪþůĩƷŎůĩ‫܌‬åŎǜþűƷƪ ʼnŎűþܼƪĩěŻűŻůǢƷŻĚĩůŻƢĩƪĩŦŁ‫ܮ‬ƢĩŦŎþűƷŎűþŦŦþƪƟĩěƷƪ‫܌‬ǜʼnŎěʼnůĩþűƪƢĩĢƿěŎűł
ĩǡƟŻƪƿƢĩƷŻþűĢĢĩƟĩűĢĩűěǢŻűĩǡƷĩƢűþŦůþƢţĩƷƪ‫܌‬ƢĩƪŻƿƢěĩƪ‫܌‬ƷĩěʼnűŻŦŻłŎĩƪ‫܌‬þűĢěþƟŎƷþŦ‫ܒ‬åŎܼƪłŻþŦŎƪƷŻ
ůŎűŎůŎǬĩ Ʒʼnĩ ěʼnþűěĩƪ ƷʼnþƷ ʼnŎűþ ěŻƿŦĢ Ěĩ ěŻĩƢěĩĢ ĚǢ ŻƷʼnĩƢ ěŻƿűƷƢŎĩƪ ĢƿƢŎűł þ ŁƿƷƿƢĩ ěƢŎƪŎƪ Ģƿĩ ƷŻ
ŎƷƪĢĩƟĩűĢĩűěŎĩƪ‫ܒ‬ƪƷʼnĩłŦŻĚþŦĩűǛŎƢŻűůĩűƷĚĩěŻůĩƪůŻƢĩěʼnþŦŦĩűłŎűłþűĢǛŻŦþƷŎŦĩ‫܌‬åŎǜþűƷƪ ʼnŎűþ
ƷŻƢĩŦǢůŻƢĩŻűĢŻůĩƪƷŎěĢĩůþűĢþűĢĢŻůĩƪƷŎěƪƿƟƟŦŎĩƢƪ‫ܒ‬ȃŎƪŎƪěþƟƷƿƢĩĢůŻƪƷƟƢŻůŎűĩűƷŦǢŎűåŎܼƪ
ƟƢŻůŻƷŎŻűŻŁƷʼnĩŎĢĩþŻŁĚƿŎŦĢŎűłþܹĢƿþŦěŎƢěƿŦþƷŎŻűܺĩěŻűŻůǢ‫܌‬ȀƢƪƷþƢƷŎěƿŦþƷĩĢŎű‫ܗڏڑڏڑ‬ƷʼnŎƪþƟƟƢŻþěʼn
ĢŻĩƪűŻƷƪĩĩţƷŻěƿƷŻDzŁ ʼnŎűþŁƢŻůƷʼnĩǜŻƢŦĢ‫܌‬ĚƿƷŁŻƢ ʼnŎűþƷŻƢĩŦǢůŻƢĩŻűĢŻůĩƪƷŎěƪƿƟƟŦŎĩƢƪþűĢ
ĢĩůþűĢƷŻƢĩĢƿěĩŎƷƪĩǡƟŻƪƿƢĩƷŻĩǡƷĩƢűþŦŁŻƢěĩƪ‫܌‬ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢƷʼnĩƷʼnƢĩþƷŻŁàĩƪƷĩƢűƪþűěƷŎŻűƪ‫¼ܒ‬ĩűƪŎŻűƪ
þƢĩ ŎűʼnĩƢĩűƷ Ŏű Ʒʼnĩƪĩ þłĩűĢþƪ ŻŁ ŎűűŻǛþƷŎŻű‫ ܌‬ǜʼnŎěʼn ƢĩơƿŎƢĩ þěěĩƪƪ ƷŻ ŁŻƢĩŎłű ƷĩěʼnűŻŦŻłǢ þűĢ ƪĩŦŁ‫ܮ‬
ƢĩŦŎþűěĩ‫܌‬ǜʼnŎěʼnƪĩĩţƪƷŻƢĩĢƿěĩĩǡƟŻƪƿƢĩƷŻŎƷ‫ܒ‬űĢŎƷƢĩůþŎűƪƿűěŦĩþƢʼnŻǜåŎƪĩĩţƪƷŻűþǛŎłþƷĩƷʼnĩƪĩ‫܌‬
ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢĢƿƢŎűłþƟĩƢŎŻĢŻŁƪŦŻǜŎűł ʼnŎűĩƪĩłƢŻǜƷʼn‫ܒ‬

åŎܼƪĩěŻűŻůŎěþłĩűĢþŎƪƢĩǴŦĩěƷĩĢŎűƪĩǛĩƢþŦĢŎƪƷŎűěƷƟŻŦŎěǢþěƷŎŻűƪĢƿƢŎűłʼnŎƪȀƢƪƷƷǜŻƷĩƢůƪ‫܋‬þĢŻƟƷŎŻű
ŻŁƷʼnĩrþĢĩŎű ʼnŎűþ‫ڔڑڏڑ‬ƟŦþűƪŁŻƢŎűǛĩƪƷŎűłŎű‫ڏڐ‬ěƢŎƷŎěþŦƪƷƢþƷĩłŎěƪĩěƷŻƢƪ‫܌‬þĢŻƟƷŎŻűŻŁƷʼnĩ‫ړڐ‬thFŎǛĩ
æĩþƢ £Ŧþű Ŏű ƪƟƢŎűł ‫ ڐڑڏڑ‬ƷʼnþƷ ƿűŎơƿĩŦǢ ŎűěŦƿĢĩĢ þű ĩűƷŎƢĩ ěʼnþƟƷĩƢ Żű űþƷŎŻűþŦ ƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ ěþŦŦŎűł ŁŻƢ
reduced exposure to external dependencies, and a greater focus on energy security and food security in
ʼnŎűþܼƪĩǡƷĩƢűþŦþDzŁþŎƢƪŁŻŦŦŻǜŎűłƷʼnĩ¦ƿƪƪŎþűŎűǛþƪŎŻűŻŁÃţƢþŎűĩ‫ܒ‬åŎܼƪłŻþŦŎƪƷŻʼnþƢĢĩűþűĢŁŻƢƷŎŁǢƷʼnĩ
Chinese economy in the face of growing geopolitical tensions and the necessary changes taking place
Ŏű ʼnŎűþܼƪĩěŻűŻůǢ‫¼ܒ‬ŻĢŻƷʼnŎƪ‫܌‬åŎƪĩĩţƪƷŻĚƿŎŦĢþűĩěŻűŻůǢŁŻěƿƪĩĢŻűþĢǛþűěĩĢůþűƿŁþěƷƿƢŎűł‫ܪ‬
űŻƷƿűŦŎţĩGĩƢůþűǢܼƪ‫ܪ‬ĚƿƷĢƢŎǛĩűůþŎűŦǢĚǢĢŻůĩƪƷŎěĢĩůþűĢþűĢŁþƢŦĩƪƪƢĩŦŎþűƷŻűĩǡƷĩƢűþŦƪŻƿƢěĩƪ
ŻŁƪƿƟƟŦǢþűĢĢĩůþűĢ‫܌‬ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪþűĢƷʼnĩěŻƿűƷƢŎĩƪþŦŎłűĩĢǜŎƷʼnŎƷ‫ܒ‬

ű ŁŻƢĩŎłű ƟŻŦŎěǢ‫ ܌‬åŎ ʼnþƪ ƟƿƢƪƿĩĢ þ ǛĩƢǢ ĢŎDzŁĩƢĩűƷ þłĩűĢþ Ʒʼnþű ƷʼnþƷ ŻŁ ʼnŎƪ ƟƢĩĢĩěĩƪƪŻƢƪ‫ ܌‬ƢĩǴŦĩěƷŎűł
Ʒʼnĩ ĢŻůĩƪƷŎě ƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦ ĢǢűþůŎěƪ ĢŎƪěƿƪƪĩĢ þĚŻǛĩ‫ ܒ‬Nĩ ǜþƪ ůŻƢĩ ǜŎŦŦŎűł ƷŻ þƪƪĩƢƷ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ŎűƷĩƢĩƪƷƪ‫܌‬
ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢŻűƪŻǛĩƢĩŎłűƷǢĢŎƪƟƿƷĩƪ‫ܗ‬ƷŻþƢƷŎěƿŦþƷĩþǛŎƪŎŻűŁŻƢ ʼnŎűþܼƪƢŻŦĩŎűƷʼnĩǜŻƢŦĢ‫܌‬ŎűěŦƿĢŎűłǛþŦƿĩƪ
ƷʼnþƷěŦþƪʼnĩĢǜŎƷʼnƷʼnŻƪĩŻŁŻƷʼnĩƢěŻƿűƷƢŎĩƪ‫ܗ‬þűĢƷŻƿƪĩƟƿűŎƷŎǛĩƟŻŦŎěŎĩƪƷŻƟƿűŎƪʼnŦĩƪƪĩƢƟŻǜĩƢƪƷʼnþƷ
ěʼnþŦŦĩűłĩʼnŎů‫܌‬ŎűěŦƿĢŎűłǜʼnĩűŎƷłĩűĩƢþƷĩƪƷĩűƪŎŻűƪǜŎƷʼnƷʼnĩů‫ܒ‬

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 54 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS

åŎŎƪƟþƢƷŎěƿŦþƢŦǢţűŻǜűŁŻƢʼnŎƪƿƪĩŻŁěŻĩƢěŎǛĩůŎŦŎƷþƢǢþűĢĩěŻűŻůŎěþěƷŎŻűƪŎűƷʼnĩƟþƪƷĢĩěþĢĩ‫ܒ‬ȃŎƪ
ʼnþƪŎűěŦƿĢĩĢłƢĩþƷĩƢůŎŦŎƷþƢǢþűĢƟþƢþůŎŦŎƷþƢǢƟƢĩƪĩűěĩŎűƷʼnĩ®ŻƿƷʼnþűĢ/þƪƷ ʼnŎűþ®ĩþƪ‫܌‬ůƿŦƷŎƟŦĩ
ěŦþƪʼnĩƪŻűƷʼnĩŦþűĢĚŻƢĢĩƢǜŎƷʼnSűĢŎþŎű‫ږڐڏڑ‬þűĢ‫܌ڏڑڏڑ‬þűĢłƢĩþƷĩƢůŎŦŎƷþƢǢþěƷŎǛŎƷŎĩƪþƢŻƿűĢ¼þŎǜþű
‫ܪ‬űŻƷƷŻůĩűƷŎŻűƷʼnĩŁŻƢůþƷŎŻűŻŁƷʼnĩ£hܼƪȀƢƪƷŻǛĩƢƪĩþƪĚþƪĩ‫܌‬ǜŎƷʼnůŻƢĩŦŎţĩŦǢěŻůŎűłŎűƷʼnĩűĩǡƷ
ĢĩěþĢĩ‫ܒ‬SűłĩűĩƢþŦ‫܌‬ƿűĢĩƢåŎ‫܌‬Ʒʼnĩ£hܼƪłŦŻĚþŦŁŻŻƷƟƢŎűƷþűĢþěƷŎǛŎƷŎĩƪʼnþǛĩĩǡƟþűĢĩĢƪŎłűŎȀěþűƷŦǢ‫܌‬ŻǼƷĩű
ŎűƟƿƢƪƿŎƷŻŁĢŎƟŦŻůþƷŎěþűĢĩěŻűŻůŎ쳯þŦƪ‫ܒ‬åŎþŦƪŻŎűěƢĩþƪĩĢƷʼnĩƿƪĩŻŁĩěŻűŻůŎěþűĢĢŎƟŦŻůþƷŎě
ƪþűěƷŎŻűƪ Ŏű ƢĩƪƟŻűƪĩ ƷŻ ĢŎƟŦŻůþƷŎě ĢŎƪƟƿƷĩƪ ǜŎƷʼn ěŻƿűƷƢŎĩƪ ŎűěŦƿĢŎűł tŻƢǜþǢ‫ ܌‬ƿƪƷƢþŦŎþ‫ ܌‬dþƟþű‫܌‬
þűþĢþ‫܌‬hŎƷʼnƿþűŎþ‫®܌‬ŻƿƷʼnfŻƢĩþ‫܌‬SűĢŎþ‫܌‬ßŎĩƷűþů‫܌‬þűĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫܌‬þƪǜĩŦŦþƪþłþŎűƪƷ¼þŎǜþű‫ܒ‬

åŎþŦƪŻþĢǛþűěĩĢþűþƟƟƢŻþěʼnƷŻłĩŻƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪƷʼnþƷƪŻƿłʼnƷƷŻĢƢþǜþűĩǡƟŦŎěŎƷěŻűƷƢþƪƷǜŎƷʼnƷʼnĩÃ‫ܮܒ®ܒ‬
ƟƢŻůŻƷĩĢܹŦŎĚĩƢþŦƢƿŦĩƪ‫ܮ‬ĚþƪĩĢŻƢĢĩƢ‫ ܺܒ‬ʼnŎűþěʼnþŦŦĩűłĩĢěŻůůŻűƿűĢĩƢƪƷþűĢŎűłƪŻŁƷʼnĩÃt ŻűǛĩűƷŎŻű
ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ hþǜ ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ®ĩþ ǜŎƷʼn ŦþűĢ ƢĩěŦþůþƷŎŻű þƷ ƪĩǛĩű þƢƷŎȀěŎþŦ ŎƪŦþűĢƪ Ŏű Ʒʼnĩ ®ŻƿƷʼn ʼnŎűþ ®ĩþ‫ ܒ‬åŎ
ŎűŎƷŎþƷĩĢ þű ĩDzŁŻƢƷ ƷŻ ܹŦĩþĢ Ʒʼnĩ ƢĩŁŻƢů ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ łŦŻĚþŦ łŻǛĩƢűþűěĩ ƪǢƪƷĩů‫ ܺ܌‬ǜʼnŎěʼn ŎűǛŻŦǛĩĢ þĢǛþűěŎűł
ʼnŎűĩƪĩŎűƷĩƢĩƪƷƪþűĢǛþŦƿĩƪ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűþĚĩěþůĩůŻƢĩþěƷŎǛĩŎűƷʼnĩÃtƪǢƪƷĩůþűĢŻƷʼnĩƢłŦŻĚþŦŻƢłþűƪþűĢ
ĩǛĩűƪŻƿłʼnƷƷŻŎűƪĩƢƷ ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟƢŎŻƢŎƷŎĩƪ‫܌‬ŦŎţĩåŎܼƪĩŦƷþűĢ¦ŻþĢSűŎƷŎþƷŎǛĩ‫܌‬ŎűƷŻÃtĢŻěƿůĩűƷƪ‫ܒ‬ƪ ʼnŎűþ
became the largest creditor in the world, it resisted for years becoming part of the existing multilateral
ůĩěʼnþűŎƪůƪƷŻůþűþłĩĢĩǛĩŦŻƟŎűłěŻƿűƷƢǢĢĩĚƷ‫ܒ‬SűƢĩěĩűƷǢĩþƢƪ‫܌‬åŎþĢǛþűěĩĢþěŻůƟƢĩʼnĩűƪŎǛĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ
ǛŎƪŎŻűŻŁłŦŻĚþŦŻƢĢĩƢěþƟƷƿƢĩĢĚǢƷʼnĩGŦŻĚþŦ'ĩǛĩŦŻƟůĩűƷSűŎƷŎþƷŎǛĩ‫܌‬GŦŻĚþŦ®ĩěƿƢŎƷǢSűŎƷŎþƷŎǛĩ‫܌‬þűĢ
GŦŻĚþŦ ŎǛŎŦŎǬþƷŎŻűSűŎƷŎþƷŎǛĩ‫܌‬ǜŎƷʼnƷʼnĩŦþƷƷĩƢŁŻěƿƪĩĢŻűƟƢŻůŻƷŎűł ʼnŎűĩƪĩǛþŦƿĩƪ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűþŦĩĢƷʼnĩĩDzŁŻƢƷ
ƷŻĩǡƟþűĢƷʼnĩůĩůĚĩƢƪŻŁƷʼnĩ¦S ®‫ܣ‬ƢþǬŎŦ‫¦܌‬ƿƪƪŎþ‫܌‬SűĢŎþ‫ ܌‬ʼnŎűþ‫܌‬þűĢ®ŻƿƷʼn
There is a direct link ŁƢŎěþ‫ܤ‬ěŻþŦŎƷŎŻűŁƢŻůȀǛĩƷŻĩŦĩǛĩűŎűƪƿůůĩƢ‫܌ڒڑڏڑ‬ǜŎƷʼnþěŦĩþƢůŎƪƪŎŻűƷŻ
ěʼnþŦŦĩűłĩěĩƢƷþŎűܹàĩƪƷĩƢűܺŎĢĩþƪþűĢƟŻŦŎěŎĩƪƪƿěʼnþƪƷʼnĩƟƢĩǛþŦĩűěĩŻŁƷʼnĩ
between Xi’s foreign
Ã‫ܒ®ܒ‬ĢŻŦŦþƢŎűƷʼnĩłŦŻĚþŦĩěŻűŻůǢ‫ܒ‬
policy and his domestic
political agenda. FƢŻůƷʼnĩǛþűƷþłĩƟŻŎűƷŻŁŦþƷĩ‫܌ڒڑڏڑ‬åŎƪŻƿłʼnƷƷŻěƢĩþƷĩűĩǜŎűƪƷŎƷƿƷŎŻűƪ‫܌‬
push for changes in existing ones, undermine existing rules and norms
such as on human rights and territorial rights, and shape new norms on emerging issues such as
ěǢĚĩƢƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ƪěʼnŻŦþƢƪ ƪþǢ ƷʼnþƷ ʼnŎűþ ĢŻĩƪ űŻƷ ƪĩĩţ ƷŻ ƢĩǛŎƪĩ Ʒʼnĩ ěƿƢƢĩűƷ ŎűƷĩƢűþƷŎŻűþŦ
ƪǢƪƷĩůĚƿƷŠƿƪƷƢĩŁŻƢůþűĢƿƟĢþƷĩŎƷ‫ܒ‬tĩǛĩƢƷʼnĩŦĩƪƪ‫܌‬ƪŻůĩŻŁƷʼnĩĢŎDzŁĩƢĩűěĩƪǜŎƷʼnƷʼnĩÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬þƟƟƢŻþěʼn
ƷŻŎűƷĩƢűþƷŎŻűþŦƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪþƢĩŁƿűĢþůĩűƷþŦƷŻʼnŻǜƷʼnĩÃtƪǢƪƷĩůŻƟĩƢþƷĩƪþűĢƷŻƷʼnĩěƿƢƢĩűƷűŻƢůƪŻŁ
ƪƷþƷĩ‫ܮ‬ƷŻ‫ܮ‬ƪƷþƷĩŎűƷĩƢþěƷŎŻűůŻƢĩĚƢŻþĢŦǢ‫ܒ‬

ȃĩƢĩ Ŏƪ þ ĢŎƢĩěƷ ŦŎűţ ĚĩƷǜĩĩű åŎܼƪ ŁŻƢĩŎłű ƟŻŦŎěǢ þűĢ ʼnŎƪ ĢŻůĩƪƷŎě ƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦ þłĩűĢþ‫ ܒ‬rþűǢ ŻŁ åŎܼƪ
ĩǡƷĩƢűþŦþěƷŎŻűƪþƢĩþĚŻƿƷĢĩŁĩűĢŎűłþűĢ‫ܘ‬ŻƢŎűěƢĩþƪŎűłƷʼnĩŦĩłŎƷŎůþěǢŻŁƷʼnĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦƪǢƪƷĩů
‫ܪ‬ĢĩůŻűƪƷƢþƷŎűłƷʼnþƷŎƷŎƪŠƿƪƷþƪŦĩłŎƷŎůþƷĩ‫܌‬ŎŁűŻƷůŻƢĩƪŻ‫܌‬ƷʼnþűƷʼnĩůŻĢĩŦŻŁĢĩůŻěƢþƷŎěěþƟŎƷþŦŎƪů‫ܒ‬
ȃŎƪʼnþƪĚĩĩűƢĩǴŦĩěƷĩĢŎű ʼnŎűþܼƪĩDzŁŻƢƷƪþƷƷʼnĩÃtþűĢŎűƢĩłŎŻűþŦŻƢłþűŎǬþƷŎŻűƪƷŻƿűĢĩƢůŎűĩƪƿƟƟŻƢƷ
ŁŻƢŦŎĚĩƢþŦǛþŦƿĩƪþűĢƷŻʼnŎłʼnŦŎłʼnƷƷʼnĩǜĩþţűĩƪƪĩƪŻŁĢĩůŻěƢþěŎĩƪ‫ܒ‬åŎʼnþƪþĢǛþűěĩĢƷʼnĩƪĩŎĢĩþƪĚǢƿƪŎűł
űĩǜƷŻŻŦƪƷŻĩǡƟþűĢ ʼnŎűþܼƪůĩĢŎþěþƟþĚŎŦŎƷŎĩƪƷŻůþţĩƷʼnĩůůŻƢĩłŦŻĚþŦ‫ܣ‬þűĢŦĩƪƪŻĚǛŎŻƿƪŦǢ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ‫ܤ‬
þűĢĚǢĚĩŎűłůŻƢĩþłłƢĩƪƪŎǛĩŎűƟƢŻůŻƷŎűł ʼnŎűþܼƪűþƢƢþƷŎǛĩƪŻŁŎƷƪƪƿěěĩƪƪĩƪ‫ܒ‬åŎþŦƪŻŎűěƢĩþƪĩĢƷʼnĩ
þěƷŎǛŎƷŎĩƪŻŁƷʼnĩܹÃűŎƷĩĢFƢŻűƷܺƪǢƪƷĩůŻŁŎűǴŦƿĩűěĩŻƟĩƢþƷŎŻűƪƷŻĚĩƷƷĩƢƪʼnþƟĩƷʼnĩǛŎĩǜƪŻŁƷʼnĩŻǛĩƢƪĩþƪ
ʼnŎűĩƪĩěŻůůƿűŎƷŎĩƪŎűůþűǢěŻƿűƷƢŎĩƪþűĢƷŻĩűěŻƿƢþłĩűŻű‫ ܮ‬ʼnŎűĩƪĩƷŻƪƿƟƟŻƢƷ ʼnŎűþܼƪƟŻƪŎƷŎŻűƪ
‫ܣ‬ŻƢ‫ ܌‬þƷ ŦĩþƪƷ‫ ܌‬űŻƷ ƷŻ þěƷŎǛĩŦǢ ŻƟƟŻƪĩ Ʒʼnĩů‫¦ ܒܤ‬ĩłþƢĢŎűł Ʒʼnĩ ŦþƷƷĩƢ‫ ܌‬ƿűĢĩƢ åŎ Ʒʼnĩ ÃűŎƷĩĢ FƢŻűƷ ƪǢƪƷĩů
ĢŎƢĩěƷŦǢŎűƷĩƢǛĩűĩĢŎűƷʼnĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦþDzŁþŎƢƪŻŁĢĩůŻěƢþěŎĩƪƪƿěʼnþƪƿƪƷƢþŦŎþ‫ ܌‬þűþĢþ‫܌‬þűĢtĩǜðĩþŦþűĢ
ƷŻƷƢǢƷŻŎűǴŦƿĩűěĩƷʼnĩŎƢƟŻŦŎěǢĢĩĚþƷĩƪƢĩŦþƷĩĢƷŻ ʼnŎűĩƪĩŎűƷĩƢĩƪƷƪ‫ܒ‬

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 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS 55

Sű ƪʼnŻƢƷ‫ ܌‬ŁŻƢĩŎłű ƟŻŦŎěǢ ƿűĢĩƢ åŎ FIGURE 9 CHINESE OPINIONS TOWARD THE U.S., 2005-2016
ʼnþƪ ĚĩěŻůĩ ĚŻƷʼn þ ƢĩǴŦĩěƷŎŻű ŻŁ ʼnŎƪ
domestic political priorities and his
ƟĩƢƪŻűþŦ ƪƷǢŦĩ ‫ܣ‬Ŏ‫ܒ‬ĩ‫ ܌ܒ‬ƪƷƢĩƪƪŎűł ĩǡƷĩƢűþŦ
ƷʼnƢĩþƷƪþűĢŦĩłŎƷŎůŎǬŎűłƷʼnĩ £‫ܤ‬þűĢ
þĢƢŎǛĩƢŻŁĢŻůĩƪƷŎěƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦĢǢűþůŎěƪ‫܋‬
ƿƪŎűł ʼnŎűþܼƪ ƢĩƪƟŻűƪĩƪ ƷŻ ĩǡƷĩƢűþŦ
ĩǛĩűƷƪ ƷŻ ƪʼnŻƢĩ ƿƟ Ʒʼnĩ £ þƷ ʼnŻůĩ‫ܒ‬
ÃűĢĩƢ åŎ‫ ܌‬Ʒʼnĩ ŦŎűţƪ ĚĩƷǜĩĩű ŁŻƢĩŎłű
policy and domestic politics became
ůŻƢĩ űƿůĩƢŻƿƪ þűĢ ƷŎłʼnƷĩƢ‫ ܒ‬Sű ƪʼnŻƢƷ‫܌‬
the symmetry is growing between what
åŎ Ŏƪ ĢŻŎűł þƷ ʼnŻůĩ þűĢ ǜʼnþƷ ʼnĩ Ŏƪ
ƪĩĩţŎűłƷŻĢŻþĚƢŻþĢ‫ܒ‬

BEYOND ELITE POLITICS:

CHINESE PUBLIC OPINION
Source: Data from the Pew Research Center global indicators database
rŻǛŎűł ĚĩǢŻűĢ Ʒʼnĩ ǜŻƢŦĢ ŻŁ ĩŦŎƷĩ
politics in China, there is one
þĢĢŎƷŎŻűþŦǜŎűĢŻǜƷʼnƢŻƿłʼnǜʼnŎěʼnƷŻþƪƪĩƪƪƷʼnĩƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪĚĩƷǜĩĩűĢŻůĩƪƷŎěƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪþűĢŁŻƢĩŎłűƟŻŦŎěǢ‫܋‬
ƟƿĚŦŎěŻƟŎűŎŻű‫ܒ‬ƪŎűƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫܌‬ŎƷŎƪĢŎDzȀěƿŦƷƷŻĢƢþǜűěŦĩþƢþűĢěŻűƪŎƪƷĩűƷŦŎűţƪĚĩƷǜĩĩűƟƿĚŦŎě
ŻƟŎűŎŻűþűĢÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪ‫ܒ‬tŻűĩƷʼnĩŦĩƪƪ‫܌‬ƟƿĚŦŎěŻƟŎűŎŻűŎű ʼnŎűþþĚŻƿƷƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪĢŻĩƪ
ŁŻƢůþƟþƢƷŻŁƷʼnĩĩűǛŎƢŻűůĩűƷŎűǜʼnŎěʼnƟŻŦŎěǢŎƪůþĢĩþűĢŎůƟŦĩůĩűƷĩĢ‫ܒ‬SƷŎƪűŻěŻŎűěŎĢĩűěĩƷʼnþƷ
ĩǛĩűŎűåŎܼƪ ʼnŎűþ‫܌‬ƷʼnĩƟƢŻƟþłþűĢþþƟƟþƢþƷƿƪĢŻĩƪƪĩĩţƷŻŠƿƪƷŎŁǢŎƷƪĩŦŁƷŻƷʼnĩƟƿĚŦŎěǛŎþƷʼnĩƪƷþƷĩ‫ܮ‬Ƣƿű
ůĩĢŎþĢƿƢŎűłƟĩƢŎŻĢƪŻŁĚŻƷʼnĩűůŎƷǢþűĢþůŎƷǢ‫¼ܒ‬ŻĢþƷĩŎű‫ڒڑڏڑ‬þŦŻűĩ‫܌‬ƷǜŻěŦþƪƪŎěĩƟŎƪŻĢĩƪŻŁěƢŎƷŎěŎƪů
ʼnþǛĩĚĩĩűŁŻŦŦŻǜĩĢĚǢěŻƿƢƷƪʼnŎƟ‫܋‬ĢƿƢŎűłƷʼnĩƪƟǢĚþŦŦŻŻűŎűěŎĢĩűƷŎűFĩĚƢƿþƢǢþűĢƷʼnĩŦĩþĢ‫ܮ‬ƿƟƷŻåŎܼƪ
ƷƢŎƟƷŻƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪŎűtŻǛĩůĚĩƢ‫ڒڑڏڑ‬ƷŻþƷƷĩűĢƷʼnĩƪŎþ‫ܮ‬£þěŎȀě/ěŻűŻůŎě ŻŻƟĩƢþƷŎŻű‫ܣ‬£/ ‫ܤ‬
ůĩĩƷŎűł‫ܒ‬

£ƿĚŦŎěŻƟŎűŎŻűƟŻŦŦƪʼnþǛĩƪʼnŻǜűþĢĩƷĩƢŎŻƢþƷŎŻűŎű ʼnŎűĩƪĩǛŎĩǜƪƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪƪŎűěĩ‫ܒڕڐڏڑ‬
'þƷþŁƢŻůƷʼnĩ£ĩǜ¦ĩƪĩþƢěʼn ĩűƷĩƢܼƪGŦŻĚþŦSűĢŎěþƷŻƢƪ'þƷþĚþƪĩ‫ܣ‬FŎłƿƢĩ‫ܤژ‬ƟƢŻǛŎĢĩƪƪŻůĩěŦþƢŎƷǢŎűƷŻ
ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟƿĚŦŎěŻƟŎűŎŻűƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪĚĩƷǜĩĩű‫ڔڏڏڑ‬þűĢ‫ܒڕڐڏڑ‬79ȃĩƪƿƢǛĩǢƢĩƪƿŦƷƪƪƿłłĩƪƷ
ƪŻůĩǛŻŦþƷŎŦŎƷǢŎű ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟƿĚŦŎěŻƟŎűŎŻűĚĩƷǜĩĩű‫ڔڏڏڑ‬þűĢ‫܌ڏڐڏڑ‬ǜŎƷʼnþŦŻǜűĩƷŁþǛŻƢþĚŎŦŎƷǢƢþƷŎűłŻŁ
‫ڒڑܫ‬Ŏű‫ږڏڏڑ‬þűĢþʼnŎłʼnŻŁ‫ڐڑݯݑ‬Ŏű‫ܒڏڐڏڑ‬ȃĩƪĩŦþƢłĩƪǜŎűłƪŎűŻƟŎűŎŻűǜĩƢĩŦĩƪƪƟƢŻůŎűĩűƷŁŻŦŦŻǜŎűłƷʼnĩ
‫ڏڐڏڑ‬ʼnŎłʼnþűĢƪþǜþ‫ڕݯ‬ŁþǛŻƢþĚŎŦŎƷǢŎű‫܌ڕڐڏڑ‬ƷʼnĩŦþƪƷǢĩþƢ£ĩǜƷƢþěţĩĢ ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟƿĚŦŎěŻƟŎűŎŻű‫ܒ‬

®Ŏűěĩ ‫ ܌ڕڐڏڑ‬ěƢĩĢŎĚŦĩ ƟƿĚŦŎě ŻƟŎűŎŻű ƟŻŦŦŎűł Żű ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ǛŎĩǜƪ ʼnþƪ Ěĩĩű ůŻƢĩ ĢŎDzȀěƿŦƷ ƷŻ ȀűĢ‫ ܒ‬űĩ
ƪƿƢǛĩǢ‫ ܌‬ěŻűĢƿěƷĩĢ ĚǢ Ʒʼnĩ Ã‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþ £ĩƢěĩƟƷŎŻű rŻűŎƷŻƢ ‫ܣ‬î t£r‫ ܤ‬Ŏű FĩĚƢƿþƢǢ ‫ܣ ڐڑڏڑ‬FŎłƿƢĩ ‫܌ܤڏڐ‬
ĢĩůŻűƪƷƢþƷĩƪþĢƢþƪƷŎěěʼnþűłĩŎű ʼnŎűĩƪĩǛŎĩǜƪƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫܌‬þƪěŻůƟþƢĩĢƷŻƷʼnĩĢþƷþŁƢŻů
‫ܒڕڐڏڑ‬80ȃĩî t£r‫ݑ‬ƟŻŦŦƢĩǛĩþŦĩĢƷʼnþƷ‫އڒڕ‬ŻŁƷʼnĩƟþƢƷŎěŎƟþűƷƪʼnĩŦĢƿűŁþǛŻƢþĚŦĩǛŎĩǜƪŻŁƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ
®ƷþƷĩƪ‫܌‬ǜŎƷʼnůŻƢĩƷʼnþűþƷʼnŎƢĢʼnŻŦĢŎűłǛĩƢǢƿűŁþǛŻƢþĚŦĩǛŎĩǜƪ‫܌‬ƢĩƪƿŦƷŎűłŎűþűĩƷŁþǛŻƢþĚŎŦŎƷǢƢþƷŎűłŻŁ

79 “Opinion of the United States – China.” Pew Research Center, Washington, DC (updated in March 2022 with polling data from Spring 2021
Global Attitudes Survey) at https://www.pewresearch.org/global/database/indicator/1/country/cn
80 “The Pulse: Chinese Public Opinion.” The Carter Center and RIWI. Survey conducted in September 2021, at https://uscnpm.org/the-pulse/

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56 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS

FIGURE 10 “WHAT IS YOUR VIEW OF THE UNITED STATES?”

Source: Graph taken from the U.S.-China Perception Monitor survey conducted in conjunction with RIWI.

‫ܒڕڑܫ‬SƷŎƪŎůƟŻƢƷþűƷƷŻűŻƷĩƷʼnþƷƷʼnĩůĩƷʼnŻĢŻŦŻłŎĩƪŻŁ£ĩǜþűĢî t£r‫ݑ‬ƪƿƢǛĩǢƪĢŎDzŁĩƢ‫܌‬þűĢƪŻƷʼnĩƪĩ
ƢĩƪƿŦƷƪƪʼnŻƿŦĢűŻƷĚĩĢŎƢĩěƷŦǢěŻůƟþƢĩĢ‫ܒ‬tĩǛĩƢƷʼnĩŦĩƪƪ‫܌‬ƷʼnĩƪƷĩĩƟĢĩěŦŎűĩŁƢŻůþ‫ڕݯݑ‬ƢþƷŎűłŎű‫ڕڐڏڑ‬Ŏű
£ĩǜܼƪƪƿƢǛĩǢƪƷŻþ‫ڕڑܫ‬ƢþƷŎűłŎűƷʼnĩî t£r‫ݑ‬ƪƿƢǛĩǢŎű‫ڐڑڏڑ‬ĢŻĩƪƪƿłłĩƪƷƷʼnþƷ ʼnŎűĩƪĩŁþǛŻƢþĚŦĩƟƿĚŦŎě
ŻƟŎűŎŻűƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪʼnþƪĢĩěŦŎűĩĢƪƿĚƪƷþűƷŎþŦŦǢŻƢþƷƷʼnĩŦĩþƪƷŎűĢŎěþƷĩƪþůŻƢĩǛŻŦþƷŎŦĩ
ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟƿĚŦŎěŻƟŎűŎŻű‫ܒ‬

àʼnĩű ĢŎĢ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ǛŎĩǜƪ ƷŻǜþƢĢ Ʒʼnĩ ÃűŎƷĩĢ ®ƷþƷĩƪ ĚĩłŎű ƷŻ ƪʼnŎǼƷ‫ ܓ‬űĩ ĢþƷþƪĩƷ ƪƿłłĩƪƷƪ ‫ ڏڑڏڑ‬þƪ þ
ƟŎǛŻƷþŦǢĩþƢŁŻƢƪʼnŎǼƷŎűł ʼnŎűĩƪĩƪĩűƷŎůĩűƷƪƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܒ‬ěěŻƢĢŎűłƷŻþ/ƿƢþƪŎþGƢŻƿƟ
FŻƿűĢþƷŎŻű ‫ܣ‬/GF‫ ܤ‬ƪƿƢǛĩǢ ‫ܣ‬FŎłƿƢĩ ‫ ܌ܤڐڐ‬űĩƷ ŁþǛŻƢþĚŎŦŎƷǢ ŻŁ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ǛŎĩǜƪ ƷŻǜþƢĢ Ʒʼnĩ ÃűŎƷĩĢ ®ƷþƷĩƪ
ǜþƪ‫ ڒܒڏړݯ ݑ‬Ŏű ‫ ژڐڏڑ‬ĚƿƷ ĢĩěƢĩþƪĩĢ ƷŻ‫ ڐڐݯ ݑ‬Ŏű ‫ ܌ڏڑڏڑ‬ǜŎƷʼn þ ʼnŎłʼnĩƢ ƟĩƢěĩűƷþłĩ ŻŁ ƟĩŻƟŦĩ ʼnŻŦĢŎűł űĩƿƷƢþŦ
ŻƟŎűŎŻűƪþűĢůŻƢĩƷʼnþűĢŻƿĚŦĩƷʼnĩűƿůĚĩƢŻŁƢĩƪƟŻűĢĩűƷƪʼnŻŦĢŎűłƪŻůĩǜʼnþƷƿűŁþǛŻƢþĚŦĩŻƟŎűŎŻűƪ
ŻŁƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪŎű‫ܒڏڑڏڑ‬81ȃŎƪĢĩěŦŎűĩůþǢűŻƷĚĩƪƿƢƟƢŎƪŎűłłŎǛĩűƷʼnĩʼnĩþƷĩĢƢʼnĩƷŻƢŎěŻű ʼnŎűþ
ĚǢƷʼnĩű£ƢĩƪŎĢĩűƷ¼ƢƿůƟŎűƢĩƪƟŻűƪĩƷŻ ßS'‫܌ژڐܮ‬ǜŎƷʼn¼ƢƿůƟěþŦŦŎűłƷʼnĩěŻƢŻűþǛŎƢƿƪƷʼnĩܹ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ
ǛŎƢƿƪܺ82þűĢŦþƷĩƢƷʼnĩܹţƿűłǴŦƿ‫ܺ܌‬83þƪǜĩŦŦþƪƪƿłłĩƪƷŎűł ßS'‫ژڐܮ‬ƷŻĚĩþƟƢŻĢƿěƷŻŁþŦþĚŦĩþţŁƢŻůƷʼnĩ
àƿʼnþűSűƪƷŎƷƿƷĩŻŁßŎƢŻŦŻłǢ‫ܒ‬84

THE EFFECTS ON U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS

ȃĩƟƢĩěĩĢŎűłþűþŦǢƪŎƪŻŁ ʼnŎűþܼƪƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦƪěĩűĩĚĩłƪŎůƟŻƢƷþűƷơƿĩƪƷŎŻűƪ‫܋‬ÃűĢĩƢåŎ‫܌‬ʼnŻǜþűĢǜʼnǢ
ʼnþǛĩĢŻůĩƪƷŎěƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪþěƷƿþŦŦǢŎűǴŦƿĩűěĩĢÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪ‫ܓ‬GŎǛĩűåŎܼƪƪƿĚƪƷþűƷŎþŦěĩűƷƢþŦŎǬþƷŎŻű
ŻŁþƿƷʼnŻƢŎƷǢ‫܌‬ŎƪƷʼnĩƢĩůƿěʼnƢŻŻůŁŻƢƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦŁŻƢěĩƪƷŻŎűǴŦƿĩűěĩƟŻŦŎěǢƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪŎűþűǢ
ůĩþűŎűłŁƿŦǜþǢ‫ܓ‬

81 “Modeling Democracy.” Eurasia Group Foundation, May 18, 2021, at https://egfound.org/2021/05/modeling-democracy-democracy-in-disar-

ray/#china
82 Michael Kunzelman, “Trump dubs COVID-19 ‘Chinese virus’ despite hate crime risks.” AP News, March 18, 2020, at https://apnews.com/
article/donald-trump-ap-top-news-asia-crime-virus-outbreak-a7c233f0b3bcdb72c06cca6271ba6713
83 “Donald Trump Calls Covid-19 ‘Kung Flu’ at Tulsa Rally.” The Guardian, June 20, 2020, at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/20/
trump-covid-19-kung-flu-racist-language
84 Maanvi Singh, Helen Davidson, and Julian Borger. “Trump Claims to Have Evidence Coronavirus Started in Chinese Lab but Offers No De-
tails.” The Guardian, April 30, 2020, at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/donald-trump-coronavirus-chinese-lab-claim

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 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS 57

FIGURE 11 DO YOU HAVE A FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF THE U.S.?

Source: Eurasia Group Foundation

At least two conditions shape the link between Chinese politics and policymaking toward the United
®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܒ‬FŎƢƪƷ‫ ܌‬ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦŦĩþĢĩƢƪţűŻǜþűĢþěěĩƟƷƷʼnþƷƷʼnĩŎƢĚŎŦþƷĩƢþŦƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪʼnŎƟǜŎƷʼnƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ
®ƷþƷĩƪ Ŏƪ ʼnŎűþܼƪ ůŻƪƷ ŎůƟŻƢƷþűƷ ƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪʼnŎƟ Ŏű Ʒʼnĩ ǜŻƢŦĢ‫ ܒ‬Ã‫ ܒ®ܒ‬ƪƷþƷĩůĩűƷƪ‫ ܌‬ƟŻŦŎěŎĩƪ‫ ܌‬þűĢ þěƷŎŻűƪ
ƿűĢĩűŎþĚŦǢʼnþǛĩþůþŠŻƢŎůƟþěƷŻű ʼnŎűĩƪĩŎűƷĩƢĩƪƷƪ‫ܒ‬ȃĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪŎƪƪƷŎŦŦƷʼnĩŻűĩěŻƿűƷƢǢƷʼnþƷŎƪ
ĚŻƷʼnĩƪƪĩűƷŎþŦƷŻþűĢěŻƿŦĢŁƢƿƪƷƢþƷĩ‫܌‬ŎŁűŻƷƪƷŻƟ‫ ܌‬ʼnŎűþܼƪƢŎƪĩ‫ܒ‬Ã‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþĩěŻűŻůŎěŎűƷĩƢĢĩƟĩűĢĩűěĩ
ʼnþƪ ŻűŦǢ ĚĩěŻůĩ ůŻƢĩ þƟƟþƢĩűƷ þűĢ ěŻűƪĩơƿĩűƷŎþŦ ƷŻ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţĩƢƪ Ŏű ƢĩěĩűƷ ǢĩþƢƪ‫ ܒ‬FŻƢ
ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţĩƢƪ‫ ܌‬Ʒʼnĩ ÃűŎƷĩĢ ®ƷþƷĩƪ ěþűűŻƷ Ěĩ ůþƢłŎűþŦŎǬĩĢ ŻƢ ŎłűŻƢĩĢ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűþ ůƿƪƷ ƟþǢ ěŦŻƪĩ
þƷƷĩűƷŎŻűƷŻŎƷƪÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ƟŻŦŎěǢ‫ܗ‬Ʒʼnƿƪ‫܌‬åŎűĩĩĢƪƷŻůþűþłĩƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪǜĩŦŦ‫ܪ‬þűĢĚĩƪĩĩűĚǢĩŦŎƷĩƪþƷʼnŻůĩþƪ
ĢŻŎűłƪŻ‫®ܒ‬ĩěŻűĢ‫ ܌‬ʼnŎűĩƪĩƪƿƪƟŎěŎŻűŻŁƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܪ‬ǜʼnŎŦĩþŦǜþǢƪƪƿĚƪƷþűƷŎþŦ‫ܪ‬ʼnþƪŎűěƢĩþƪĩĢ
ƿűĢĩƢ åŎ‫ ܒ‬rþűǢ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ʼnþǛĩ űŻǜ ěŻűěŦƿĢĩĢ ƷʼnþƷ Ʒʼnĩ ÃűŎƷĩĢ
®ƷþƷĩƪ Ŏƪ ƪĩƢŎŻƿƪŦǢ ŁŻěƿƪĩĢ Żű ěŻűƷþŎűŎűł ʼnŎűþܼƪ ĩěŻűŻůŎě þűĢ Many Chinese have now
ƷĩěʼnűŻŦŻłŎěþŦƢŎƪĩþűĢƿűĢĩƢůŎűŎűł‫܌‬ŎŁűŻƷŻǛĩƢƷʼnƢŻǜŎűłƷʼnƢŻƿłʼn
ܹƟĩþěĩŁƿŦ ĩǛŻŦƿƷŎŻű‫ ܺ܌‬ŎƷƪ ƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦ ƪǢƪƷĩů‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűĩƪĩ þěƷŻƢƪ‫ ܌‬ƪƿěʼn
concluded that the United
þƪ Ʒʼnĩ r®® þűĢ Ʒʼnĩ £h‫ ܌‬ʼnþǛĩ Ěĩĩű ĩůƟŻǜĩƢĩĢ ƷŻ þěƷ Żű Ʒʼnĩƪĩ States is seriously focused
ěŻűěĩƢűƪ‫¦ܒ‬ĩěŻűěŎŦŎűłƷʼnĩƪĩƷǜŻŎůƟĩƢþƷŎǛĩƪ‫ܪ‬ƷʼnĩŎůƟŻƢƷþűěĩŻŁ on containing China’s
ƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪþűĢƷʼnĩĢĩĩƟþűĢłƢŻǜŎűłĢŎƪƷƢƿƪƷŻŁŎƷ‫ܪ‬þƢĩ economic and technological
þƷƷʼnĩʼnĩþƢƷŻŁƷʼnĩĢŻůĩƪƷŎě ʼnŎűĩƪĩĢĩĚþƷĩþĚŻƿƷŎƷƪÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ƟŻŦŎěǢ‫ܒ‬ rise and undermining, if not
overthrowing through “peaceful
ȃƿƪ‫܌‬ƷʼnĩƢĩűŻǜþƟƟĩþƢƪƷŻĚĩþěĩƢƷþŎűƷǢŎűţĩǢƟþƢƷƪŻŁ ʼnŎűþܼƪ
evolution,” its political system.
ƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦŦĩþĢĩƢƪʼnŎƟþĚŻƿƷÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ƪƷƢþƷĩłŎěŎűƷĩűƷŎŻűƪþűĢƷʼnĩűĩĩĢ
ƷŻƟƢŻƷĩěƷ ʼnŎűþþłþŎűƪƷÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬þěƷŎŻűƪ‫܌‬ěƿƢƢĩűƷþűĢŁƿƷƿƢĩ‫ܒ‬ȃŎƪŎƪ
ůŻƷŎǛþƷŎűłůƿěʼnŻŁ ʼnŎűþܼƪŁŻƢĩŎłűƟŻŦŎěǢ‫܌‬ǜʼnŎěʼnŎƪŁŻěƿƪĩĢŻűĚŻƷʼnþĢǛþűěŎűł ʼnŎűĩƪĩþŦƷĩƢűþƷŎǛĩƪ
þűĢƿűĢĩƢůŎűŎűłÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ŎĢĩþƪþűĢƟŻŦŎěŎĩƪ‫ܒ‬ȃĩƪĩůŻƷŎǛþƷŎŻűƪþDzŁĩěƷ ʼnŎűþܼƪÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ƟŻŦŎěǢŎűƪĩǛĩƢþŦǜþǢƪþƪ
ĩűƿůĩƢþƷĩĢĚĩŦŻǜ‫ܒ‬

FŎƢƪƷ‫܌‬ĢĩěŎƪŎŻűƪþĚŻƿƷƷʼnĩƷŻűĩþűĢěŻűƷĩűƷŻŁ ʼnŎűþܼƪÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ƟŻŦŎěǢþƢĩěĩűƷĩƢĩĢŻűåŎdŎűƟŎűł‫ܒ‬ƪŁŻƢĩŎłű
ƟŻŦŎěǢĢĩěŎŻű‫ܮ‬ůþţŎűłʼnþƪĚĩěŻůĩůŻƢĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěŎǬĩĢþűĢěĩűƷƢþŦŎǬĩĢ‫܌‬åŎþƟƟĩþƢƪƷŻĚĩƷʼnĩŻűŦǢŻűĩŎű
ƷʼnĩƪǢƪƷĩůƷʼnþƷěþűůþţĩůþŠŻƢĢĩěŎƪŎŻűƪþĚŻƿƷÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƷŎĩƪ‫ܒ‬FĩǜůĩþűŎűłŁƿŦþěƷŎŻűƪƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩ
ÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪěþűĚĩƷþţĩűǜŎƷʼnŻƿƷʼnŎƪþƟƟƢŻǛþŦ‫܌‬ěƢĩþƷŎűłĚŻƷʼnŻƟƟŻƢƷƿűŎƷŎĩƪþƪǜĩŦŦþƪěŻűƪƷƢþŎűƷƪ‫ܒ‬
¦ĩŦþƷĩĢŦǢ‫܌‬ŻƷʼnĩƢƪĩűƪŎƷŎǛĩŁŻƢĩŎłűƟŻŦŎěǢŎƪƪƿĩƪ‫܌‬ƪƿěʼnþƪ ʼnŎűþܼƪ¦ƿƪƪŎþƟŻŦŎěǢþűĢƷʼnĩĩŦƷþűĢ¦ŻþĢ
SűŎƷŎþƷŎǛĩ‫¦ܣ‬S‫܌ܤ‬þƢĩƪŎłűþƷƿƢĩåŎƟŻŦŎěŎĩƪþűĢěþƢƢǢůþŠŻƢŎůƟŦŎěþƷŎŻűƪŁŻƢÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƷŎĩƪ‫ܒ‬ȃƿƪ‫܌‬ůŻƪƷ
ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ůĩþűŎűłŁƿŦ ůŻǛĩůĩűƷƪ Ŏű Ã‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþ ƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪ ʼnþǛĩ ŻűŦǢ ŻěěƿƢƢĩĢ ‫ ܪ‬þűĢ ƟƢŻĚþĚŦǢ ěþű ŻűŦǢ
ŻěěƿƢ‫ܪ‬ǜʼnĩűƷʼnĩƷǜŻŦĩþĢĩƢƪƷþŦţ‫ܒ‬

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 58 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS

®Ŏűěĩ£ƢĩƪŎĢĩűƷŎĢĩűþƪƪƿůĩĢŻDzȀěĩŎű‫܌ڐڑڏڑ‬ŦĩþĢĩƢ‫ܮ‬ŦĩǛĩŦůĩĩƷŎűłƪʼnþǛĩĚĩĩűěĩűƷƢþŦƷŻůþűþłŎűł
ƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪ þűĢ Ʒʼnĩ ůþŎű þƢĩűþ ǜʼnĩƢĩ ƢĩþŦ ǜŻƢţ łĩƷƪ ĢŻűĩ‫ ܒ‬ȃĩ ȀƢƪƷ ŎĢĩű‫ܮ‬åŎ ǛŎĢĩŻ ěþŦŦ Ŏű tŻǛĩůĚĩƢ
‫ڐڑڏڑ‬ǜþƪěƢŎƷŎěþŦƷŻƪƷþĚŎŦŎǬŎűłƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪĢƿƢŎűłŎĢĩűܼƪȀƢƪƷǢĩþƢþǼƷĩƢþƷĩűƪĩȀƢƪƷůĩĩƷŎűłþůŻűłƷŻƟ
þĢǛŎƪŻƢƪŎűŦþƪţþŎűƟƢŎŦ‫ܒڐڑڏڑ‬ƷƷʼnĩtŻǛĩůĚĩƢǛŎĢĩŻůĩĩƷŎűłǜŎƷʼnŎĢĩű‫܌‬åŎþƢƷŎěƿŦþƷĩĢþŁƢþůĩǜŻƢţ
ŁŻƢ ƪƷþĚŦĩ ƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪ ƷʼnþƷ Ʒʼnĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ƪǢƪƷĩů űĩĩĢĩĢ þűĢ ƿƪĩĢ ƷŻ łƿŎĢĩ ƷʼnĩŎƢ ƟŻŦŎěǢůþţŎűł‫ܒ‬ȃĩű Ŏű
rþƢěʼn‫܌ڑڑڏڑ‬ƷʼnĩƷǜŻŦĩþĢĩƢƪʼnĩŦĢþƪĩěŻűĢǛŎĢĩŻůĩĩƷŎűłƢŎłʼnƷþǼƷĩƢƷʼnĩ¦ƿƪƪŎþűŎűǛþƪŎŻűŻŁÃţƢþŎűĩ
þűĢƿƪĩĢŎƷƷŻƪĩƷƷʼnĩƟþƢþůĩƷĩƢƪŻŁÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƷŎĩƪþƷƪƿěʼnþűƿűěĩƢƷþŎűƷŎůĩ‫ܒ‬ȃĩŎƢȀƢƪƷŎű‫ܮ‬ƟĩƢƪŻű
ůĩĩƷŎűłŻěěƿƢƢĩĢŎűþŦŎŎűtŻǛĩůĚĩƢ‫ڑڑڏڑ‬þűĢƟƢŻĢƿěĩĢǜʼnþƷƷʼnĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩěþŦŦĩĢƷʼnĩܹþŦŎěŻűƪĩűƪƿƪܺ
þĚŻƿƷůþűþłŎűłƪĩűƪŎƷŎǛĩŎƪƪƿĩƪŎűƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪ‫ܒ‬ěŻƢĩþěěŻůƟŦŎƪʼnůĩűƷŻŁƷʼnþƷůĩĩƷŎűłǜþƪƷŻƪƷþĚŎŦŎǬĩ
ƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪŁŻŦŦŻǜŎűłƷʼnĩ£ĩŦŻƪŎǛŎƪŎƷƷŻ¼þŎǜþűƷʼnĩƟƢŎŻƢƪƿůůĩƢ‫ܒ‬ŎĢĩűƿƪĩĢʼnŎƪĢŎƢĩěƷěŻűǛĩƢƪþƷŎŻűƪ
ǜŎƷʼnåŎƷŻƢĩþƪƪƿƢĩʼnŎůþĚŻƿƷÃ‫ܼܒ®ܒ‬ƪ¼þŎǜþűƟŻŦŎěǢ‫ܪ‬ŁŻƢĩǡþůƟŦĩ‫܌‬ƷʼnþƷàþƪʼnŎűłƷŻűĢŻĩƪűŻƷƪƿƟƟŻƢƷ
¼þŎǜþűŎűĢĩƟĩűĢĩűěĩ‫ܪ‬þűĢƷŻƟƢŻǛŎĢĩŻƷʼnĩƢƪþƪƪƿƢþűěĩƪþĚŻƿƷÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ƪƷƢþƷĩłŎěŎűƷĩűƷŎŻűƪ‫ڔڗܒ‬rƿěʼnŻŁ
ƷʼnŎƪƪƷþĚŎŦŎƷǢǜþƪĢĩƢþŎŦĩĢĚǢƷʼnĩĩþƢŦǢ‫ڒڑڏڑ‬ƪƟǢĚþŦŦŻŻűŎűěŎĢĩűƷ‫ܒ‬

ȃĩtŻǛĩůĚĩƢ‫ڒڑڏڑ‬ƪƿůůŎƷůĩĩƷŎűłŻƿƷƪŎĢĩ®þűFƢþűěŎƪ쯯űƷʼnĩůþƢłŎűƪŻŁƷʼnĩ£/ ůƿŦƷŎŦþƷĩƢþŦ
ůĩĩƷŎűł ƟƿƷ Ʒʼnĩ ƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪʼnŎƟ Ěþěţ Żű Ʒʼnĩ ƷƢþěţ ŻŁ ĢŎþŦŻłƿĩ þűĢ ěŻůůƿűŎěþƷŎŻű‫ ܒ‬ȃĩ þłƢĩĩůĩűƷƪ
ƢĩþěʼnĩĢ þƷ Ʒʼnĩ ƪƿůůŎƷ þĢĢĩĢ þ ĢĩłƢĩĩ ŻŁ ĢŎƢĩěƷŎŻű þűĢ ůŻůĩűƷƿů ƷʼnþƷ Ã‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþ ƷŎĩƪ ŦþěţĩĢ
ŁŻƢ ůƿěʼn ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ŎĢĩű þĢůŎűŎƪƷƢþƷŎŻű‫ ܒ‬Sű Ʒʼnĩ ŦĩþĢ‫ܮ‬ƿƟ ƷŻ Ʒʼnĩ ůĩĩƷŎűł‫ ܌‬Ʒʼnĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ þłƢĩĩĢ ƷŻ Ʒʼnĩ
ƢĩƪƿůƟƷŎŻűŻŁĩŎłʼnƷűĩǜĢŎþŦŻłƿĩěʼnþűűĩŦƪ‫܋‬ƷǜŻþƷƷʼnĩ¼ƢĩþƪƿƢǢ'ĩƟþƢƷůĩűƷ‫܌‬ƷǜŻþƷƷʼnĩ ŻůůĩƢěĩ
'ĩƟþƢƷůĩűƷ‫܌‬þűĢŁŻƿƢþƷƷʼnĩ®ƷþƷĩ'ĩƟþƢƷůĩűƷ‫'ܒ‬ƿƢŎűłƷʼnĩůĩĩƷŎűł‫܌‬Ʒʼnĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩþłƢĩĩĢƷŻƢĩƪƿůĩ
ƪĩǛĩƢþŦ ůŎŦŎƷþƢǢ‫ܮ‬ƷŻ‫ܮ‬ůŎŦŎƷþƢǢ ĢŎþŦŻłƿĩƪ ‫ܣ‬ĩ‫ܒ‬ł‫ ܌ܒ‬þƷ Ʒʼnĩ ŻƟĩƢþƷŻƢ‫ ܌‬ƷʼnĩþƷĩƢ ěŻůůþűĢĩƢ‫ ܌‬þűĢ ƪĩűŎŻƢ ŦĩǛĩŦƪ‫܌ܤ‬
a deal to control Chinese exports of fentanyl precursors to the United States, and a new dialogue on
þƢƷŎȀěŎþŦ ŎűƷĩŦŦŎłĩűěĩ‫ ܒ‬ȃĩ ŦĩþĢĩƢƪ þŦƪŻ ʼnĩŦĢ ŎůƟŻƢƷþűƷ ěŻűǛĩƢƪþƷŎŻűƪ þĚŻƿƷ ƪĩűƪŎƷŎǛĩ łŦŻĚþŦ Ŏƪƪƿĩƪ
ŎűěŦƿĢŎűł ʼnŎűþܼƪƟŻƪŎƷŎŻűŻűƷʼnĩÃţƢþŎűĩǜþƢ‫܌‬ƷʼnĩěƢŎƪŎƪŎűƷʼnĩrŎĢĢŦĩ/þƪƷ‫܌‬þűĢƷʼnĩƿƟěŻůŎűł¼þŎǜþű
ĩŦĩěƷŎŻű‫ܒ‬FŻŦŦŻǜƷʼnƢŻƿłʼnþűĢŎůƟŦĩůĩűƷþƷŎŻűŻŁƷʼnĩƪĩěŻůůŎƷůĩűƷƪ
Xi’s comprehensive national ǜŎŦŦĢĩƟĩűĢŻűåŎܼƪĢŎƢĩěƷþűĢƪƿƪƷþŎűĩĢŎűǛŻŦǛĩůĩűƷ‫ڕڗܒ‬
security outlook — with its 11
definitions of national security ®ĩěŻűĢ‫܌‬åŎܼƪěŻůƟƢĩʼnĩűƪŎǛĩűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢŻƿƷŦŻŻţ‫ܪ‬ǜŎƷʼnŎƷƪ‫ڐڐ‬
— is fostering even greater ĢĩȀűŎƷŎŻűƪŻŁűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ‫ܪ‬ŎƪŁŻƪƷĩƢŎűłĩǛĩűłƢĩþƷĩƢƪƿƪƟŎěŎŻű
ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ÃűŎƷĩĢ ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ ܒ‬rþűǢ Ŏű ʼnŎűþ űŻǜ ƪĩĩ ƪƷƢþƷĩłŎě ŎűƷĩűƷŎŻűƪ
suspicion of the United States.
ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ ÃűŎƷĩĢ ®ƷþƷĩƪ þƪ ĢĩĢŎěþƷĩĢ ƷŻ ܹěŻűƷþŎűůĩűƷ‫ ܌‬ĩűěŎƢěŦĩůĩűƷ‫܌‬
þűĢ ƪƿƟƟƢĩƪƪŎŻűܺ þƪ åŎ ƟƿĚŦŎěŦǢ ƪþŎĢ Ŏű rþƢěʼn ‫ ܒڒڑڏڑ‬ȃĩ ĢĩĩƟ ƪƿƪƟŎěŎŻű ƿűĢĩƢůŎűŎűł Ʒʼnĩ þĚŎŦŎƷǢ ŻŁ
ĩŎŠŎűł þűĢ àþƪʼnŎűłƷŻű ƷŻ ůþűþłĩ ƷʼnŎƪ ěŻůƟŦĩǡ ƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪʼnŎƟ‫ ܌‬Ʒʼnĩ ƢĩƪƿŦƷƪ ŻŁ Ʒʼnĩ tŻǛĩůĚĩƢ ƪƿůůŎƷ
űŻƷǜŎƷʼnƪƷþűĢŎűł‫܌‬ěŻƿŦĢěʼnþŦŦĩűłĩŎůƟŦĩůĩűƷþƷŎŻűŻŁƷʼnĩƪƿůůŎƷěŻůůŎƷůĩűƷƪ‫ܒ‬SűþĢĢŎƷŎŻű‫܌‬Ŏűƪƿěʼnþ
ƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦĩűǛŎƢŻűůĩűƷŎű ʼnŎűþ‫܌‬ƷʼnĩŦŎűĩƪĚĩěŻůĩĚŦƿƢƢĩĢĚĩƷǜĩĩűƷʼnĩÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬łŻǛĩƢűůĩűƷþűĢÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ƟƢŎǛþƷĩ
ĚƿƪŎűĩƪƪĩƪ‫ ܌‬ƪěʼnŻŦþƢƪ‫ ܌‬þűĢ ěŎǛŎŦ ƪŻěŎĩƷǢ‫ ܒ‬ŦŦ ůĩƢŎěþűƪ ĚĩěŻůĩ þ ƟŻƪƪŎĚŦĩ ƷʼnƢĩþƷ ƷŻ ʼnŎűþܼƪ ŎűƷĩƢűþŦ
ƪƷþĚŎŦŎƷǢþűĢƪĩƢǛĩþƪþƪŻƿƢěĩŻŁƪƿƪƟŎěŎŻű‫ܒ‬ȃŎƪʼnþƢĢĩűŎűłŻŁ ʼnŎűĩƪĩƟĩƢěĩƟƷŎŻűƪŻŁƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ
ŎƪƷʼnĩĢŎƢĩěƷƢĩƪƿŦƷŻŁåŎܼƪĩǡƟþűƪŎǛĩþƟƟƢŻþěʼnƷŻűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ‫ܒ‬ȃĩĢĩłƢĩĩƷŻǜʼnŎěʼnƷʼnĩtŻǛĩůĚĩƢ

85 The Chinese claim that the United States made the following commitments in Bali, “the United States stated that it did not seek to change
China’s system, did not seek a ‘new Cold War,’ did not seek to strengthen alliances against China, did not support ‘Taiwan independ-
ence,’ and had no intention of conflict with China.” See https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/topics_665678/xjpfmgjxzmyshwtscxapec/202311/
t20231116_11181442.html
86 Conversations with senior U.S. officials, November 2023. The official readouts of the meetings can be found at https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/
topics_665678/xjpfmgjxzmyshwtscxapec/202311/t20231116_11181442.html and https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-re-
leases/2023/11/15/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-2/

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 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS 59

2023 summit changes this approach to the United States will be an important test of the depth and
ŎűǴŦƿĩűěĩŻŁƷʼnĩƪĩƟĩƢěĩƟƷŎŻűƪ‫ܒ‬

ȃŎƢĢ‫܌‬åŎܼƪŎĢĩþƪþĚŻƿƷűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢþűĢƷʼnĩűþƷŎŻűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢƪǢƪƷĩůʼnĩŎƪĚƿŎŦĢŎűłþƢĩěƢĩþƷŎűł
ƪƿĚƪƷþűƷŎþŦ ĚþƢƢŎĩƢƪ ƷŻ ůŻƢĩ Ã‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþ ěŻűƷþěƷ‫ ܌‬ŎűƷĩƢþěƷŎŻűƪ‫ ܌‬þűĢ ěŻůůƿűŎěþƷŎŻű‫ ܒ‬ȃĩ łƢŻǜŎűł
þűĢ ĩǡƟþűĢŎűł ƪƿƪƟŎěŎŻűƪ þĚŻƿƷ Ʒʼnĩ ÃűŎƷĩĢ ®ƷþƷĩƪ þƢĩ ƟƢŻĢƿěŎűł ĢŎǛĩƢƪĩ ěŻűƪƷƢþŎűƷƪ Żű þŦŦ þƪƟĩěƷƪ
ŻŁĚŎŦþƷĩƢþŦŎűƷĩƢþěƷŎŻűƪ‫ܒ‬FŻƢĩǡþůƟŦĩ‫܌‬ƷʼnĩƢĩěĩűƷěƢþěţĢŻǜűƪŻűÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ěŻűƪƿŦƷŎűłþűĢƢĩƪĩþƢěʼnȀƢůƪ
‫ܣ‬ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢłŎǛĩűƷʼnþƷƷʼnŎƪǜþƪĢŻűĩĚǢƷʼnĩr®®þűĢűŻƷþűĩěŻűŻůŎěþłĩűěǢ‫ܤ‬þƢĩʼnþǛŎűłþěʼnŎŦŦŎűłĩDzŁĩěƷ
ŻűÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ŎűǛĩƪƷŻƢƪþűĢÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ěŻůƟþűŎĩƪŻƟĩƢþƷŎűłŻűƷʼnĩůþŎűŦþűĢ‫®ܒ‬ŎůŎŦþƢŦǢ‫܌‬űĩǜĢþƷþƟƢŻƷĩěƷŎŻűþűĢ
ěŻƿűƷĩƢĩƪƟŎŻűþłĩŦþǜƪʼnþǛĩƟƢŻĢƿěĩĢĩűʼnþűěĩĢƪěƢƿƷŎűǢŻŁŁŻƢĩŎłűƪěʼnŻŦþƢƪƷƢþǛĩŦŎűłƷŻ ʼnŎűþ‫܌‬ŦĩþĢŎűł
ƷŻþƢĩĢƿěƷŎŻűŎűþěþĢĩůŎěŎűƷĩƢþěƷŎŻűƪ‫ܒ‬ȃĩĢĩűƪĩǜĩĚŻŁƟĩŻƟŦĩ‫ܮ‬ƷŻ‫ܮ‬ƟĩŻƟŦĩěŻűűĩěƷŎŻűƪþƷƷʼnĩʼnĩþƢƷŻŁ
Ã‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƷŎĩƪŎƪŦŻűłłŻűĩþűĢůþǢűĩǛĩƢƢĩƷƿƢűƷŻƟƢŎŻƢŦĩǛĩŦƪ‫ܒ‬

FŻƿƢƷʼn‫܌‬ƷʼnĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦĩűǛŎƢŻűůĩűƷŎű ʼnŎűþŁŻƪƷĩƢƪŎűěĩűƷŎǛĩƪŁŻƢƷʼnĩŎűƷĩƢűþŦƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢþěƷŻƢƪƷŻƷþţĩ
ůŻƢĩ þłłƢĩƪƪŎǛĩ þěƷŎŻűƪ þłþŎűƪƷ Ã‫ ܒ®ܒ‬ƟĩƢƪŻűƪ þűĢ ŻƢłþűŎǬþƷŎŻűƪ ŻƟĩƢþƷŎűł Ŏű ʼnŎűþ‫ ܒ‬åŎܼƪ ƢĩěĩűƷ
ĢĩěŎƪŎŻűƷŻĩůƟŦŻǢƷʼnĩr®®þűĢűŻƷĩěŻűŻůŎěþłĩűěŎĩƪƷŻþĢĢƢĩƪƪŎűŁŻƢůþƷŎŻűƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢŎƪƪƿĩƪþƷÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬
ěŻűƪƿŦƷŎűłȀƢůƪůþǢĚĩþʼnþƢĚŎűłĩƢŻŁƷʼnĩŁƿƷƿƢĩþěƷŎŻűƪþłþŎűƪƷŎűƷĩƢűþƷŎŻűþŦĚƿƪŎűĩƪƪĩƪ‫ܒ‬ƪþƢĩƪƿŦƷ‫܌‬
ůþűǢŎűƷʼnĩÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ĚƿƪŎűĩƪƪěŻůůƿűŎƷǢþƢĩƢĩŦƿěƷþűƷƷŻƷƢþǛĩŦƷŻ ʼnŎűþþűĢƷŻŎűǛĩƪƷůŻƢĩƷʼnĩƢĩ‫ܒ‬87

Sű þĢĢŎƷŎŻű ƷŻ ĚƿƪŎűĩƪƪ þDzŁþŎƢƪ‫ ܌‬ʼnŎűþܼƪ ŎűƷĩƢűþŦ ƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ ƪĩƢǛŎěĩƪ þƢĩ űŻǜ ƟŦþǢŎűł þ łƢĩþƷĩƢ ƢŻŦĩ Ŏű
ŻƷʼnĩƢĢĩěŎƪŎŻűƪƢĩŦþƷĩĢƷŻÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƷŎĩƪ‫ܒ‬ȃĩǢűŻǜʼnþǛĩþłƢĩþƷĩƢǜĩŎłʼnƷŎűƷʼnĩǛŎƪþƢĩǛŎĩǜƟƢŻěĩƪƪ‫܌‬
ƢĩƪƿŦƷŎűłŎűűƿůĩƢŻƿƪþűĩěĢŻƷþŦþěěŻƿűƷƪŻŁǛŎƪþƪĚĩŎűłĢĩűŎĩĢ‫ܣ‬þűĢűŻƷĚĩŎűłłƢþűƷĩĢ‫ܤ‬ŻƢǛŎƪþƪĚĩŎűł
łƢþűƷĩĢĚƿƷÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ǛŎƪŎƷŻƢƪĚĩŎűłƢĩŁƿƪĩĢĩűƷƢǢþƷƷʼnĩĚŻƢĢĩƢ‫ܒ‬ƢĩŦþƷĩĢĚƿƷĢŎƪƷŎűěƷþƪƟĩěƷŻŁƷʼnŎƪŎƪůŻƢĩ
þłłƢĩƪƪŎǛĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩŎűƷĩŦŦŎłĩűěĩěŻŦŦĩěƷŎŻűþěƷŎǛŎƷŎĩƪŎűƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫܌‬ŁŻƪƷĩƢŎűłþűþěƷŎŻű‫ܮ‬ƢĩþěƷŎŻű
ěǢěŦĩ ĚĩƷǜĩĩű Ã‫ ܒ®ܒ‬þűĢ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ŎűƷĩŦŦŎłĩűěĩ ƪĩƢǛŎěĩƪ‫ ܌‬ĚŻƷʼn ěŎǛŎŦŎþű þűĢ ůŎŦŎƷþƢǢ‫ ܒ‬ȃĩ ƪƟǢ ĚþŦŦŻŻű
ŎűěŎĢĩűƷ Ŏű ƪƟƢŎűł ‫ ܪ ڒڑڏڑ‬þűĢ Ʒʼnĩ ĚƢŻþĢĩƢ ěŻŦŦĩěƷŎŻű ƟƢŻłƢþů ŎƷ ƢĩǛĩþŦĩĢ ‫ ܪ‬ǜþƪ ƟĩƢʼnþƟƪ Ʒʼnĩ ůŻƪƷ
ĚƢþǬĩűĩǡþůƟŦĩŻŁ ʼnŎűþܼƪłƢŻǜŎűłƢŎƪţƷŻŦĩƢþűěĩŎűŎƷƪŎűƷĩŦŦŎłĩűěĩěŻŦŦĩěƷŎŻűƟƢŻłƢþůƪ‫ܒ‬88

ȀǼƷʼnþƢĩűþǜʼnĩƢĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩĢŻůĩƪƷŎěƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪþDzŁĩěƷÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƷŎĩƪŎƪŎűƷʼnĩěŻůůĩƢěŎþŦƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪʼnŎƟ‫ܒ‬

ʼnŎűþܼƪƟŻŦŎěǢŻŁĢƿþŦ‫ܮ‬ěŎƢěƿŦþƷŎŻűþűĢƪĩŦŁ‫ܮ‬ƢĩŦŎþűěĩþŎůƪƷŻƢĩĢƿěĩĢĩƟĩűĢĩűěĩŻűÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ĢĩůþűĢ‫܌‬ěþƟŎƷþŦ‫܌‬
ěŻůůŻĢŎƷŎĩƪ‫܌‬ƢĩƪŻƿƢěĩƪ‫܌‬þűĢƷĩěʼnűŻŦŻłŎĩƪ‫܌‬ěŻůƟƢŎƪŎűłþ ʼnŎűĩƪĩǛĩƢƪŎŻűŻŁܹĢĩěŻƿƟŦŎűł‫ ܺܒ‬ʼnŎűþƪĩĩƪ
ƢĩŦŎþűěĩŻűþűǢþűĢþŦŦƪƿěʼnÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ŎűƟƿƷƪþƪþǛƿŦűĩƢþĚŎŦŎƷǢƷʼnþƷƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪěŻƿŦĢĩǡƟŦŻŎƷŎűþěƢŎƪŎƪ‫ܒ‬
ȃŎƪƟƢŎŻƢŎƷǢŎűƷĩűƪŎȀĩĢŎű‫ڑڑڏڑ‬ŁŻŦŦŻǜŎűłƷʼnĩůþƪƪŎǛĩłŦŻĚþŦƪþűěƷŎŻűƪŻű¦ƿƪƪŎþŁŻŦŦŻǜŎűłŎƷƪŎűǛþƪŎŻű
ŻŁÃţƢþŎűĩ‫ܒ‬

åŎܼƪƪĩŦŁ‫ܮ‬ƢĩŦŎþűěĩþłĩűĢþʼnþƪůþűŎŁĩƪƷĩĢŎűƟŻŦŎěŎĩƪƷŻĚŻƷʼnƢĩĢƿěĩĩǡƟŻƪƿƢĩƷŻƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪþűĢ
ƷŻĩǡƟþűĢƢĩŦŎþűěĩŻűƪŻƿƢěĩƪűŻƷþŦŎłűĩĢǜŎƷʼnƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűþܼƪŦŻűł‫ܮ‬ƷĩƢůĩDzŁŻƢƷƷŻƢĩĢƿěĩŎƷƪ
ĢŎƢĩěƷĩǡƟŻƪƿƢĩƷŻƷʼnĩÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ĢŻŦŦþƢ‫܌‬ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢŎűŎƷƪŁŻƢĩŎłűĩǡěʼnþűłĩƢĩƪĩƢǛĩƪ‫܌‬ʼnþƪŎűƷĩűƪŎȀĩĢ‫ܒ‬űĩŻŁ
ƷʼnĩƪþűěƷŎŻűƪŻű¦ƿƪƪŎþƷʼnþƷěþƿłʼnƷ ʼnŎűþܼƪþƷƷĩűƷŎŻűǜþƪƷʼnĩŁƢĩĩǬŎűłŻŁ¦ƿƪƪŎþűěĩűƷƢþŦĚþűţƢĩƪĩƢǛĩƪ
ŦŻěþƷĩĢŻƿƷƪŎĢĩ¦ƿƪƪŎþ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűþʼnþƪƪŎůŎŦþƢŦǢƢĩĢƿěĩĢƟƿƢěʼnþƪĩƪŻŁÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬þłƢŎěƿŦƷƿƢþŦłŻŻĢƪ‫ܣ‬ĩ‫ܒ‬ł‫܌ܒ‬ěŻƢű‫܌‬

87 Demetri Sevastopulo, “US Chamber of Commerce Warns of Rising Risk of Doing Business in China,” Financial Times, April 28, 2023, at
https://www.ft.com/content/0ae1825b-1515-4293-8b93-5f86766b1c2f; Chip Cutter, “China Is Becoming a No-Go Zone for Executives,” Wall
Street Journal, October 6, 2023, at https://www.wsj.com/business/china-is-becoming-a-no-go-zone-for-executives-626250dd
88 James Mulvenon, “Non-Traditional Security Competition: The Espionage Realm,” in Evan S. Medeiros, ed., Cold Rivals: The New Era of
U.S.-China Strategic CompetitionÎ (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2023).

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 60 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS

ǜʼnĩþƷ‫܌‬þűĢƪŻǢĚĩþűƪ‫܌ܤ‬ǜʼnŎŦĩŎűěƢĩþƪŎűłƟƿƢěʼnþƪĩƪŁƢŻůŻƷʼnĩƢƪ‫܌‬ƪƿěʼnþƪƢþǬŎŦ‫ܣܒ‬Ã‫ܒ®ܒ‬ŁþƢůĩƢƪƢĩůþŎűƪ
ǛĩƢǢ ƢĩŦŎþűƷ Żű ĩǡƟŻƢƷƪ ƷŻ Ʒʼnĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ůþƢţĩƷ‫ܒ‬89) On energy security, China has similarly expanded
ŎůƟŻƢƷƪŻŁŻŎŦþűĢłþƪŁƢŻů¦ƿƪƪŎþþűĢƷʼnĩrŎĢĢŦĩ/þƪƷ‫܌‬ǜʼnŎŦĩƷƢǢŎűłƷŻƢĩĢƿěĩŎůƟŻƢƷƪŻŁűþƷƿƢþŦłþƪ
ŁƢŻů Ã‫ ܒ®ܒ‬ƪƿƟƟŦŎĩƢƪ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ĢŎƢĩěƷ ŎűǛĩƪƷůĩűƷ ŎűƷŻ Ʒʼnĩ ÃűŎƷĩĢ ®ƷþƷĩƪ ěŻűƷŎűƿĩƪ ƷŻ ĢĩěŦŎűĩ‫ ܌‬ŻǜŎűł
ƷŻ Ʒʼnĩ ǛŎĩǜ ƷʼnþƷ ŎƷ Ŏƪ þű ŎűʼnŻƪƟŎƷþĚŦĩ ĩűǛŎƢŻűůĩűƷ ŁŻƢ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ŎűǛĩƪƷŻƢƪ‫ ܒ‬Sű ‫ ڑڑڏڑ‬þűĢ ‫ ܌ڒڑڏڑ‬þŦŦ Ʒʼnĩ
ůþŠŻƢ ʼnŎűĩƪĩ®/ƪ‫ܣ‬ƪĩǛĩűŎűƷŻƷþŦ‫ܤ‬ŦŎƪƷĩĢŻűƷʼnĩtĩǜæŻƢţ®ƷŻěţ/ǡěʼnþűłĩ‫ܣ‬tæ®/‫ܤ‬ĢĩŦŎƪƷĩĢŁƢŻůƷʼnĩ
ĩǡěʼnþűłĩƪŻƷʼnþƷƷʼnĩǢǜŻƿŦĢűŻƷĚĩƪƿĚŠĩěƷƷŻŎűƷƢƿƪŎǛĩŎűƪƟĩěƷŎŻűƪŻŁƷʼnĩŎƢȀűþűěŎþŦþƿĢŎƷƪ‫¼ܒ‬ŻĚĩƪƿƢĩ‫܌‬
Ʒʼnĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩłŻþŦŎƪűŻƷƷŻěƿƷŎƷƪĩŦŁŻDzŁŁƢŻůƷƢþĢĩþűĢŎűǛĩƪƷůĩűƷǜŎƷʼnƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܪ‬ŁþƢŁƢŻů
ŎƷ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűþǜþűƷƪƷŻƪĩŦŦůŻƢĩƷŻƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫¦ܒ‬þƷʼnĩƢ‫܌‬åŎܼƪłŻþŦŎƪƷŻƢĩĢƿěĩěƢŎƷŎěþŦĢĩƟĩűĢĩűěŎĩƪ
ƷʼnþƷěƢĩþƷĩǛƿŦűĩƢþĚŎŦŎƷŎĩƪŁŻƢ ʼnŎűþǜʼnŎŦĩŎűěƢĩþƪŎűłƷʼnĩþƪǢůůĩƷƢŎěƢĩŦŎþűěĩŻŁƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪŻű
ʼnŎűþ‫ ܒ‬FŻƢ ʼnŎűþ‫ ܌‬Ʒʼnĩ ůŻƢĩ ŎƷ ěþű ƪĩŦŦ ƷŻ Ʒʼnĩ ÃűŎƷĩĢ ®ƷþƷĩƪ þűĢ Ʒʼnĩ Ŧĩƪƪ ŎƷ ěþű ĚƿǢ ŁƢŻů ŎƷ‫ ܌‬Ʒʼnĩ Ŧĩƪƪ
ǛƿŦűĩƢþĚŦĩŎƷůþǢĚĩþűĢƷʼnĩůŻƢĩŦĩǛĩƢþłĩŎƷůþǢʼnþǛĩŎűþěƢŎƪŎƪ‫ܒ‬

FŎűþŦŦǢ‫ ܌‬ʼnŎűĩƪĩ ĢŻůĩƪƷŎě ƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪ ŎűǴŦƿĩűěĩ Ã‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþ ƷŎĩƪ ĚǢ ŁŻƪƷĩƢŎűł þ ƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦ ĩűǛŎƢŻűůĩűƷ
Ŏű ʼnŎűþƷʼnþƷ‫܌‬ŎűƢĩěĩűƷǢĩþƢƪ‫܌‬ʼnþƪűŻƷĚĩĩűěŻűĢƿěŎǛĩƷŻĢŎþŦŻłƿĩ‫܌‬ěŻůƟƢŻůŎƪĩ‫܌‬þűĢ쯯ƟĩƢþƷŎŻű‫ܪ‬
þűĢŎűƪŻůĩŎűƪƷþűěĩƪʼnþƪĚĩĩűʼnŻƪƷŎŦĩƷŻƷʼnĩů‫ܒ‬ȃŎƪʼnþƪƿűĢĩƢůŎűĩĢ ʼnŎűþܼƪǜŎŦŦŎűłűĩƪƪƷŻěŻűĢƿěƷ
ĢŎƟŦŻůþěǢ‫ ܌‬þ ƟƢŻěĩƪƪ ƷʼnþƷ ƢĩơƿŎƢĩƪ ĢŎþŦŻłƿĩ þűĢ űĩłŻƷŎþƷŎŻű Żű ĚŻƷʼn ƪŎĢĩƪ‫ ܒ‬ȃĩ ěŻŦŦĩěƷŎǛĩ ŎůƟþěƷ ŻŁ
łƢŻǜŎűł ƪƿƪƟŎěŎŻűƪ‫ ܌‬ŎűěĩűƷŎǛĩƪ ƷŻ ܹƪƷƢƿłłŦĩܺ þłþŎűƪƷ Ʒʼnĩ ÃűŎƷĩĢ
The resulting rapid shift in ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ ܌‬ǬĩþŦŻƿƪ ƪĩěƿƢŎƷǢ ŻƢłþűƪ‫ ܌‬ƟŻŦŎƷŎěŎǬĩĢ þłĩűěŎĩƪ‫ ܌‬þűĢ ʼnǢƟĩƢ‫ܮ‬
China’s posture toward the ěĩűƷƢþŦŎǬĩĢ ĢĩěŎƪŎŻű‫ܮ‬ůþţŎűł ʼnþƪ ƢĩĢƿěĩĢ Ʒʼnĩ ƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦ ƪƟþěĩ ŁŻƢ
ĢŎþŦŻłƿĩþűĢ쯯ƟĩƢþƷŎŻűŎűÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƷŎĩƪ‫ܒ‬
United States — welcoming
dialogue with U.S. officials and
ȃĩ ‫ ڒڑڏڑ‬ƪƟǢ ĚþŦŦŻŻű ŎűěŎĢĩűƷ ŻDzŁĩƢƪ Żűĩ ƪƿěʼn ĩǡþůƟŦĩ ŻŁ ʼnŻǜ
promoting positive narratives of ơƿŎěţŦǢ ĢŎƪƷƢƿƪƷ ěþű ƢĩƪƿƢŁþěĩ þűĢ ěŻűƪƷƢþŎű ĢŎþŦŻłƿĩ‫ ܒ‬ěěƿƢŎűł
U.S.-China friendship — further ŻűŦǢ þ Łĩǜ ůŻűƷʼnƪ þǼƷĩƢ Ʒʼnĩ tŻǛĩůĚĩƢ ‫ ڑڑڏڑ‬þŦŎ ƪƿůůŎƷ‫ ܌‬Ʒʼnĩ
validates the prominence of Chinese response was to not engage in dialogue with the United
politics in China’s U.S. policy ®ƷþƷĩƪ þűĢ ĩǡƟŦþŎű ŎƷƪ þěƷŎŻűƪ‫¦ ܒ‬þƷʼnĩƢ‫ ܌‬ŎƷ ǜþƪ ƷŻ ĢĩűǢ Ʒʼnĩ ƷƢƿĩ
ƟƿƢƟŻƪĩŻŁƷʼnĩĚþŦŦŻŻűþűĢƷʼnĩűĢĩǴŦĩěƷƢĩƪƟŻűƪŎĚŎŦŎƷǢŁƢŻů ʼnŎűþ
ƷŻƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ ܒ‬ʼnŎűĩƪĩŻDzȀěŎþŦƪþűĢƷʼnĩůĩĢŎþĚŦþůĩĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪŁŻƢþʼnǢƪƷĩƢŎěþŦƢĩƪƟŻűƪĩ
þűĢěŦþŎůĩĢƷʼnþƷƢĩƪƟŻűƪĩþƪǛþŦŎĢþƷŎŻűŻŁƷʼnĩĢŻůĩƪƷŎěƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦűþƢƢþƷŎǛĩƷʼnþƷƷʼnĩÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬łŻþŦǜþƪƷŻ
ěŻűƷþŎű ʼnŎűþ‫ ܌‬ŁƿƢƷʼnĩƢ ĚŻŦƪƷĩƢŎűł ƪƿƟƟŻƢƷ ŁŻƢ åŎ þűĢ Ʒʼnĩ £ þƷ ʼnŻůĩ‫ ܒ‬ĩŎŠŎűł ƪʼnƿƷ ĢŻǜű ůŻƪƷ ŻŁ
ƷʼnĩůþŠŻƢÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþĢŎþŦŻłƿĩěʼnþűűĩŦƪŁŻƢůŻűƷʼnƪ‫܌‬ŎűěŦƿĢŎűłĚǢŦĩþǛŎűłƷʼnĩ ʼnŎűĩƪĩþůĚþƪƪþĢŻƢƷŻ
àþƪʼnŎűłƷŻűƟŻƪŎƷŎŻűŻƟĩűŁŻƢþűƿűƟƢĩěĩĢĩűƷĩĢĩŎłʼnƷůŻűƷʼnƪ‫܌‬ŁƢŻůěƷŻĚĩƢ‫ڑڑڏڑ‬ƷŻrþǢ‫ܒڒڑڏڑ‬

®ƿĚƪĩơƿĩűƷŦǢ‫܌‬ĚŎŦþƷĩƢþŦĢŎþŦŻłƿĩěʼnþűűĩŦƪŻűŦǢŻƟĩűĩĢƿƟĚĩłŎűűŎűłŎűƪƿůůĩƢ‫ڒڑڏڑ‬ǜʼnĩűĩŎŠŎűł
ƢĩþŦŎǬĩĢŎƷűĩĩĢĩĢƷŻěƢĩþƷĩƷʼnĩěŻűĢŎƷŎŻűƪŁŻƢåŎƷŻƷƢþǛĩŦƷŻƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪŎűtŻǛĩůĚĩƢŁŻƢƷʼnĩ£/ 
ůĩĩƷŎűł‫ܒ‬ȃĩƢĩƪƿŦƷŎűłƢþƟŎĢƪʼnŎǼƷŎű ʼnŎűþܼƪƟŻƪƷƿƢĩƷŻǜþƢĢƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܪ‬ǜĩŦěŻůŎűłĢŎþŦŻłƿĩ
ǜŎƷʼn Ã‫ ܒ®ܒ‬ŻDzȀěŎþŦƪ þűĢ ƟƢŻůŻƷŎűł ƟŻƪŎƷŎǛĩ űþƢƢþƷŎǛĩƪ ŻŁ Ã‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþ ŁƢŎĩűĢƪʼnŎƟ ‫ ܪ‬ŁƿƢƷʼnĩƢ ǛþŦŎĢþƷĩƪ
ƷʼnĩƟƢŻůŎűĩűěĩŻŁƟŻŦŎƷŎěƪŎű ʼnŎűþܼƪÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ƟŻŦŎěǢ‫܋‬ƿƪŎűłŁŻƢĩŎłűƟŻŦŎěǢƷŻĚŻŦƪƷĩƢŦĩłŎƷŎůþěǢ‫ܒ‬ȃĩ £
űĩĩĢĩĢƷŻěƢĩþƷĩƷʼnĩƟŻŦŎƷŎěþŦěŻűĢŎƷŎŻűƪŁŻƢåŎƷŻƷƢþǛĩŦƷŻƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫܌‬ĩƪƟĩěŎþŦŦǢþǼƷĩƢǢĩþƢƪŻŁ
ƟƢŻůŻƷŎűłűĩłþƷŎǛĩǛŎĩǜƪŻŁůĩƢŎěþ‫ܒ‬SűƷʼnĩǜĩĩţƪĚĩŁŻƢĩåŎܼƪƷƢŎƟ‫܌‬ʼnĩůĩƷǜŎƷʼnƪĩǛĩƢþŦÃ‫ܒ®ܒ‬ǛŎƪŎƷŻƢƪ
ǜʼnŻůŎłʼnƷűŻƷűŻƢůþŦŦǢƪĩĩʼnŎů‫܌‬ŎűěŦƿĢŎűł®ĩűþƷŻƢ ʼnƿěţ®ěʼnƿůĩƢþűĢ þŦŎŁŻƢűŎþGŻǛĩƢűŻƢGþǛŎű

89 Chad P. Bown and Yilin Wang, “China Is Becoming Less Dependent on American Farmers, but US Export Dependence on China Remains
High,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, March 21, 2023, at https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/china-becoming-less-de-
pendent-american-farmers-us-export-dependence-china

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 ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE THE NEW DOMESTIC POLITCS OF U.S.-CHINA REL ATIONS 61

tĩǜƪŻů‫'ܒ‬þǢƪĚĩŁŻƢĩåŎܼƪƷƢþǛĩŦ‫܌‬ƷʼnĩƟƢŻƟþłþűĢþþƟƟþƢþƷƿƪƪƷþƢƷĩĢƟƢŻůŻƷŎűłƟŻƪŎƷŎǛĩĢĩƪěƢŎƟƷŎŻűƪ
ŻŁƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪþűĢÃ‫ ܮܒ®ܒ‬ʼnŎűþƢĩŦþƷŎŻűƪ‫ܒ‬åŎűʼnƿþĩǛĩűƟƿĚŦŎƪʼnĩĢþȀǛĩ‫ܮ‬ƟþƢƷƪĩƢŎĩƪŎű ʼnŎűĩƪĩŻű
ܹGĩƷƷŎűł ʼnŎűþ‫ܮ‬Ã‫¦ܒ®ܒ‬ĩŦþƷŎŻűƪþěţŻű¼Ƣþěţ‫ܺܒ‬90ȃĩtŻǛĩůĚĩƢ‫ڒڑڏڑ‬ƪƿůůŎƷŻƿƷěŻůĩƪǜŎŦŦĚĩþƷĩƪƷ
ŻŁƷʼnĩĢĩƟƷʼnŻŁƷʼnĩ £ܼƪƪƿƪƟŎěŎŻűƪþĚŻƿƷƷʼnĩÃűŎƷĩĢ®ƷþƷĩƪ‫ܒ‬àŎŦŦƷʼnĩǢŁƿűěƷŎŻűþƪƪƷƢƿěƷƿƢþŦĚþƢƢŎĩƢƪ
ƷŻ쯯ƟĩƢþƷŎŻű‫ܓ‬ȃĩƿŦƷŎůþƷĩƷĩƪƷůþǢĚĩƷʼnĩűĩǡƷĚŎŦþƷĩƢþŦěƢŎƪŎƪǜʼnĩűƷʼnĩűĩǜĢŎþŦŻłƿĩěʼnþűűĩŦƪþűĢ
ƟŦĩĢłĩƪŻŁ쯯ƟĩƢþƷŎŻűǜŎŦŦĩŎƷʼnĩƢƟĩƢƪŎƪƷŻƢĚĩƪʼnƿƷĢŻǜűþłþŎű‫ܒ‬

90 Vivian Wang and Joy Dong, “As Xi Heads to San Francisco, Chinese Propaganda Embraces America,” New York Times, November 14, 2023, at
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/world/asia/china-xi-propaganda-america.html

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