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VICKY O'HARA
Uzbekistan's decision to expel U.S. forces within six months shows the vulnerability of
the Pentagon's so-called lily pad base strategy. It involves putting a small number of
U.S. forces and weapons into countries to deal with emerging threats.
US military planners say that gaining quick access to a trouble spot is critical to
fighting terrorism. To that end, the Pentagon has been basing small numbers of US
forces and supplies in a variety of countries. Planners call these bases `lily pads,' but
Uzbekistan's recent decision to expel the small US base on its territory underscores the
weakness of that strategy. NPR's Vicky O'Hara reports.
After 9/11, the Pentagon realized that the war on terrorism would be fought in many
places far from the long-established US military bases overseas; places such as
Afghanistan where, in the fall of 2001, the US went to war against the Taliban and al-
Qaeda. General John Jumper had just taken over at that time as Air Force chief of
staff.
General JOHN JUMPER (Air Force Chief of Staff): All of the stuff that went into
Afghanistan, because there was no land access and because there were no ports, had to
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go in by air.
O'HARA: But Washington quickly negotiated overflight or basing rights with several
central Asian countries, including Uzbekistan. That kind of access allowed the US
military to exercise its full capability against the Taliban. Uzbekistan's recent decision
to oust US forces is not expected to impede the Afghanistan mission, in part because
the US now has bases in Afghanistan itself. But military analysts say Uzbekistan's
decision shows the United States' vulnerability in counting on the so-called `lily pads'
in a time of crisis. Michael Vickers is director of strategic studies at the Center for
Strategic and Budgetary Assessment.
Mr. MICHAEL VICKERS (Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment): As you get
into a conflict, relationships that you have with countries may not pan out. In some
cases, they restrict our ability to launch offensive operations from those countries.
Saudi Arabia has done that in the past. Or they deny you base access, as Turkey did in
the most recent war with Iraq. And so it's not a sure thing in any event.
O'HARA: The Pentagon always plans for the worst-case scenario, and that means the
possibility that allies will not come through in a crisis. Max Boot is a senior fellow in
national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Mr. MAX BOOT (Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations): This is simply
accelerating the desire within the Pentagon to look for ways of protecting American
power without being so reliant upon the political whims of, perhaps, uncertain friends.
O'HARA: Max Boot says one possible alternative now under discussion is the
possibility of establishing bases at sea.
Mr. BOOT: There are various concepts for offshore bases that might look like an oil rig
or might be simply a bunch of large ships, basically expanding on our use of
amphibious assault ships and aircraft carriers right now, so that we don't have to rely
completely on third-country permission to act.
O'HARA: The war on terrorism has changed US military priorities. In previous years,
the Pentagon had been moving away from reliance on land forces in favor of heavy
airpower. But the only way to fight an insurgency effectively is on the ground, and one
of the biggest problems in maintaining ground forces in a sustained conflict is
logistics: getting the troops to the fight and keeping them supplied. Colonel Mack
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Owens, a professor of national security affairs at the US Naval War College, says the
Navy currently is able to supply troops on the ground from offshore for only about 30
to 90 days.
O'HARA: One big problem with sea bases, according to Max Boot, is their vulnerability
to possible attack.
Mr. BOOT: If you have these huge offshore platforms, even a hundred miles offshore,
they can still be incredibly vulnerable to something like an Exocet missile or the other
kinds of cruise missiles which are being sold to countries all over the world.
O'HARA: Proponents of sea basing argue that land bases also are vulnerable to attack.
But sea basing has another problem, which is cost, especially in an era of serious
budget deficits. Again, Michael Vickers.
Mr. VICKERS: It's very expensive. It's tens of billions of dollars to buy the new ships
that would give us a greater capability, and so it's being looked at: Is this the right
investment?
O'HARA: The debate within military circles over how to project US power when
needed also has revived discussions about the long-range bomber. With the end of the
Cold War it had fallen out of favor to some extent. But long-range bombers, such as
the B-52, played a vital role in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Military planners say
that if you can't get close-range access to a conflict, then the long-range bomber
remains an important part of the US arsenal. Vicky O'Hara, NPR News, Washington.
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