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Foreign-Exchange Risk
From the perspective of a U.S. investor, the cash flows of assets denominated in a foreign
currency expose the investor to uncertainty as to the cash flow in U.S. dollars. The actual U.S.
dollars that the investor gets depend on the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the foreign
currency at the time the non-dollar cash flow is received and exchanged for U.S. dollars. If the
foreign currency depreciates (declines in value) relative to the U.S. dollar (i.e., the U.S. dollar
appreciates), the dollar value of the cash flows will be proportionately less. This risk is referred
to as foreign-exchange risk.
Any investor who purchases an asset denominated in a currency that is not the medium of
exchange of the investor’s country faces foreign-exchange risk. For example, a Greek investor
who acquires a yen-denominated Japanese bond is exposed to the risk that the Japanese yen will
decline in value relative to the Greek drachma.
Foreign- exchange risk is a consideration for issuers too. Suppose that IBM issues bonds
denominated in Japanese yen IBM’s foreign-exchange risk is that at the time the coupon interest
payments must be made and the principal repaid, the U.S. dollar will have depreciated relative to
the Japanese yen, requiring that IBM pay more dollars to satisfy its yen obligation.
Spot Market
The spot exchange rate market is the market for settlement within two business days. Since the
early 1970s, exchange rates between major currencies have been free to float, with market forces
determining the relative value of a currency. Thus, each day a currency’s price relative to another
currency may stay the same, increase, or decrease.
While quotes can be either direct or indirect, the problem is defining from whose perspective
the quote is given. Foreign exchange conventions in fact standardize the ways quotes are given.
Because of the importance of the U.S. dollar in the international financial system, currency
quotations are all relative to the U.S. dollar. When dealers quote, they either give U.S. dollars per
unit of foreign currency (a direct quote from the U.S. perspective) or the number of units of the
foreign currency per U.S. dollar (an indirect quote from the U.S. perspective). Quoting in terms
of U.S. dollars per unit of foreign currency is called American terms, while quoting in terms of
the number of units of the foreign currency per U.S. dollar is called European terms.
A key factor affecting the expectation of changes in a country’s exchange rate is the relative
expected inflation rate. Spot exchange rates adjust to compensate for relative inflation rate
between two countries. This is the so called purchasing-power parity relationship. It says that
the exchange rate – the domestic price of the foreign currency – is proportional to the domestic
inflation rate, and inversely proportional to foreign inflation.
Cross Rates
Barring any government restrictions, riskless arbitrage will assure that the exchange rate between
two countries will be the same in both countries. The theoretical exchange rate between two
countries other than the U.S. can be inferred from their exchange rate with the U.S. dollar. Rates
computed in this way are referred to as theoretical cross rates. They would be computed as
follows for two countries, X and Y:
Quote in American terms of currency X
Quote in American terms of currency Y
To illustrate how this is done, let’s calculate the theoretical cross rate between German marks
and Japanese yen using the exchange rates. The exchange rate for the two currencies in
American terms is $0.6234 per German marks and $0.009860 per Japanese yen. Then the
number of Japanese yen (Y) per unit of German marks (X) is:
$0.6234 = 63.23 yen/mark
$0.009860
Taking the reciprocal gives the number of German marks exchangeable for one Japanese yen.
In our example it is 0.01581.
New Issue Vs Stock Exchanges
New issue: a stock issued for the first time to raise new equity capital, this transaction is said to
occur in the primary market. Initial public offerings by privately held firms: the IPO
market. The act of selling stock to the public at large by closely held corporation or its principal
stockholders.
The Stock Exchanges
There are two basic types of stock markets: (1) organized exchanges, which include the New
York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), and several regional
exchanges, and (2) the less formal over-the=counter market.
The organized security exchanges are tangible physical entities. Each of the larger ones
occupies its own building, has a limited number of members, and has an elected governing body
– its board of governors. Members are said to have “seats” on the exchange, although everybody
stands up. These seats, which are bought and sold, give the holder the right to trade on the
exchange. There are more than 1,300 seats on the New York Stock Exchange, and recently
NYSE seats were selling for about $1.5 million.
Most of the larger investment banking houses operates brokerage departments, and they own
seats on the exchanges and designate one or more of their officers as members. The exchange are
open on all normal working days, with the members meeting in a large room equipped with
telephones and other electronic equipment that enable each member to communicate with his or
her firm’s offices throughout the country.
Like other markets, security exchanges facilitate communication between buyers and sellers.
For example, Merrill Lynch (the largest brokerage firm) might receive an order in its Atlanta
office from a customer who wants to buy 100 shares of AT&T stock. Simultaneously, Dean
Witter’s Denver office might receive an order from a customer wishing to sell 100 shares of
AT&T. each broker communicates by wire with the firm’s representative on the NYSE. Other
brokers throughout the country are also communicating with their own exchange members. The
exchange members with sell orders offer the shares for sale, and they are bid for by the members
with buy orders. Thus, the exchanges operate as auction market.
The Efficient Markets Hypothesis
A body of theory called the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) holds (1) that stocks are
always in equilibrium and (2) that it is impossible for an investor to consistently “beat the
market.”
Levels of Market Efficiency
If markets are efficient, stock prices will rapidly reflect all available information. This raises an
important question: what types of information are available and, therefore, incorporated into
stock prices? Financial theorists have discussed three forms, or levels, of market efficiency.
Weak-Form Efficiency. The weak-form of the EMH states that all information contained in past
price movements is fully reflected in current market prices. If this is true, then information about
recent trends in stock prices would be of no use in selecting stocks – the fact that a stock has
risen for the past three days, for example, would give us no useful clues as to what it will do
today or tomorrow. People who believe that weak-form efficiency exists also believe that “tape
watchers” and “chartists” are wasting their time. 1
For example, after studying the past history of the stock market, a chartist might “discover”
the following pattern: If a stock falls three consecutive days, its price typically rises 10 percent
the following day. The technician would conclude that investors could make money by
purchasing a stock whose price has fallen three consecutive days.
Semi Strong-Form Efficiency. The semi strong form of EMH states that current market prices
reflect all publicly available information. Therefore, if semi strong-form efficiency exists, it
would do no good to pore over annual reports or other published data because market prices
would have adjusted to any good or bad news contained in such reports back when the news
came out. With semi strong-form efficiency, investors should expect to earn the returns predicted
by the SML, but they should not expect to do any better unless they have good luck or
information that is not publicly available. However, insiders (for example, the presidents of
companies) who have information which is not publicly available can earn abnormal returns
(returns higher than those predicted by the SML) even under semi strong-form efficiency.
Another implication of semi strong-form efficiency is that whenever information is released
to the public, stock prices will respond only if the information is different from what had been
expected.
Strong-Form Efficiency. The strong form of EMH states that current market prices reflect all
pertinent information, whether publicly available or privately held. If this form holds, even
insiders would find it impossible to earn abnormal returns in the market.
Many empirical studies have been conducted to test for the three forms of market efficiency.
Most of these studies suggest that the stock market is indeed highly efficient in the weak form
and reasonably efficient in the semi strong form, at least for the larger and more widely followed
stocks. However, the strong-form EMH does not hold, so abnormal profits can be made by those
who possess inside information.