Pattern Recognition: Module 2

Dr. Kalyan N
March 20, 2024

Problem 59.
An employee is selected from a staff of 10 to supervise a certain project by
selecting a tag at random from a box containing 10 tags numbered from 1 to
10. Let X represent the number on the tag that is drawn.
(a) Probability Distribution of X:
The probability distribution of X can be represented by a discrete uniform
distribution since each tag has an equal chance of being drawn. Therefore, the
probability mass function (PMF) for X is given by:
1
P (X = x) = for x = 1, 2, 3, . . . , 10
10
(b) Probability that the Number Drawn is Less than 4:
We want to find P (X < 4). Since X follows a discrete uniform distribution,
the probability of drawing a number less than 4 is the sum of the probabilities
of drawing 1, 2, and 3:
P (X < 4) = P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3)
1 1 1
= + +
10 10 10
3
=
10
= 0.3
Therefore, the probability that the number drawn is less than 4 is 0.3.

Problem 60.
According to Chemical Engineering Progress (November 1990), approxi-
mately 30% of all pipework failures in chemical plants are caused by operator
error.
(a) What is the probability that out of the next 20 pipework fail-
ures at least 10 are due to operator error?
Let X represent the number of failures due to operator error out of 20 trials.
We’re interested in finding P (X ≥ 10).
Using the binomial distribution formula, we have:
 
n k
P (X = k) = p (1 − p)n−k
k

1
 where n = 20 (number of trials), p = 0.3 (probability of success), and k
varies from 0 to 20.
To find P (X ≥ 10), we calculate the cumulative probability:
9  
X 20
P (X ≥ 10) = 1 − P (X < 10) = 1 − (0.3)k (0.7)20−k
k
k=0

(b) What is the probability that no more than 4 out of 20 such

failures are due to operator error?
We want to find P (X ≤ 4) using the same binomial distribution formula:
4  
X 20
P (X ≤ 4) = (0.3)k (0.7)20−k
k
k=0

(c) Suppose, for a particular plant, that out of the random sample
of 20 such failures, exactly 5 are due to operator error. Do you feel
that the 30% figure stated above applies to this plant? Comment.
To find P (X = 5), we directly apply the binomial probability mass function:
 
20
P (X = 5) = (0.3)5 (0.7)15
5

Problem 61.
The probability that a patient recovers from a delicate heart operation is
0.9. What is the probability that exactly 5 of the next 7 patients having this
operation survive?
(a) Probability that exactly 5 out of the next 7 patients survive:
Let X represent the number of patients who survive out of 7 trials. We’re
interested in finding P (X = 5).
Using the binomial distribution formula with n = 7 and p = 0.9, we have:
 
7
P (X = 5) = (0.9)5 (0.1)2
5

(b) Probability of passing the test on the third try:

Let X represent the number of trials until the first success (passing the test).
We’re interested in finding P (X = 3).
Using the geometric distribution formula with p = 0.7, we have:

P (X = 3) = (0.7)2 (0.3)

Problem 62.

2
 In testing a certain kind of truck tire over rugged terrain, it is found that
25% of the trucks fail to complete the test run without a blowout. Of the next
15 trucks tested, find the probability that:
(a) From 3 to 6 have blowouts:
Let X represent the number of trucks out of 15 that have blowouts. We’re
interested in finding P (3 ≤ X ≤ 6).
This problem can be solved using the binomial distribution formula:
 
n k
P (X = k) = p (1 − p)n−k
k

where n = 15 (number of trials), p = 0.25 (probability of success), and k

varies from 0 to 15.
(b) Fewer than 4 have blowouts:
We want to find P (X < 4) using the binomial distribution formula.
(c) More than 5 have blowouts:
We want to find P (X > 5), which can be calculated as 1 − P (X ≤ 5).

Problem 63.
The probability that a student pilot passes the written test for a private
pilot’s license is 0.7. Find the probability that a given student will pass the
test:
(a) On the third try:
Let X represent the number of tries until the student passes the test. We’re
interested in finding P (X = 3).
This problem can be solved using the geometric distribution formula:

P (X = k) = p(1 − p)k−1

where p = 0.7 (probability of success) and k represents the number of trials

until the first success.
(b) Before the fourth try:
We want to find P (X ≤ 3) using the geometric distribution formula.

Problem 64.
On average, 3 traffic accidents per month occur at a certain intersection.
Find the probability that in any given month at this intersection:
(a) Exactly 5 accidents will occur:
This problem can be solved using the Poisson distribution formula:

e−λ λk
P (X = k) =
k!
where λ = 3 (average number of accidents per month) and k varies from 0
to infinity.
(b) Fewer than 3 accidents will occur:
We want to find P (X < 3) using the Poisson distribution formula.

3
 (c) At least 2 accidents will occur:
We want to find 1 − P (X < 2).

Problem 65.
On average, a textbook author makes two word processing errors per page
on the first draft of her textbook. Find the probability that on the next page
she will make:
(a) 4 or more errors:
This problem can be solved using the Poisson distribution formula.
(b) No errors:
We want to find P (X = 0) using the Poisson distribution formula.
Problem 66.
The probability that a person living in a certain city owns a dog is estimated
to be 0.3. Find the probability that the tenth person randomly interviewed in
that city is the fifth one to own a dog.
Solution:
Let X be the number of people out of 10 who own a dog. We want to find
P (X = 5).
This problem can be modeled using the binomial distribution, as each inter-
view is independent and has a fixed probability of success (p = 0.3).
 
10 k
P (X = k) = p (1 − p)10−k
k
Substituting k = 5, n = 10, and p = 0.3 into the formula:
 
10
P (X = 5) = (0.3)5 (0.7)5
5

Statistical Inference:
This probability tells us the likelihood of encountering the fifth dog owner
among the first ten randomly interviewed people in the city.
Problem 67.
Find the probability that a person flipping a coin gets:
(a) The third head on the seventh flip:
(b) The first head on the fourth flip:
Solution:
Both problems can be solved using the geometric distribution, as we’re in-
terested in the number of trials needed to achieve the first success (getting a
head).

P (X = k) = p(1 − p)k−1
where p = 0.5 (probability of getting a head).
(a) Substituting k = 3 into the formula, we get:

P (X = 3) = (0.5)3

4
 (b) Substituting k = 1 into the formula, we get:

P (X = 1) = (0.5)1

Statistical Inference:
These probabilities help us understand the likelihood of certain outcomes in
a series of coin flips.
Problem 68.
Three people toss a fair coin, and the odd one pays for coffee. If the coins all
turn up the same, they are tossed again. Find the probability that fewer than
4 tosses are needed.
Solution:
Let X be the number of tosses needed. We want to find P (X < 4).
This problem can be solved by considering the possible outcomes of the coin
tosses and calculating the probabilities for each outcome.
Statistical Inference:
This probability gives insight into the expected number of coin tosses needed
before the outcome is determined.
Problem 69.
The number of customers arriving per hour at a certain automobile service
facility is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution with mean λ = 7.
(a) Compute the probability that more than 10 customers will
arrive in a 2-hour period:
(b) What is the mean number of arrivals during a 2-hour period?
Solution:
For part (a), we use the Poisson distribution formula:
10
X e−7 · 7k
P (X > 10) = 1 −
k!
k=0

For part (b), the mean number of arrivals during a 2-hour period is simply
2λ.
Statistical Inference:
These calculations help in understanding the distribution of customer ar-
rivals and making predictions about future arrivals.
Problem 70.
Given a standard normal distribution, find the area under the curve that
lies:
(a) To the right of z = 1.84:
(b) Between z = −1.97 and z = 0.86:
Solution:
For both parts, we use the standard normal distribution table or a calculator
to find the corresponding probabilities.
Statistical Inference:
These probabilities help in understanding the distribution of data and mak-
ing statistical inferences.

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Problem 71.
Given a standard normal distribution, find the value of k such that:
(a) P (Z > k) = 0.3015:
(b) P (k < Z < −0.18) = 0.4197:
Solution:
For both parts, we use the standard normal distribution table or a calculator
to find the corresponding z-scores.
Statistical Inference:
These z-scores help in understanding the relative positions of data points in
a standard normal distribution.