The Great Irish Famine and Population: The Long View

Author(s): Timothy W. Guinnane

Source: The American Economic Review , May, 1994, Vol. 84, No. 2, Papers and
Proceedings of the Hundred and Sixth Annual Meeting of the American Economic
Association (May, 1994), pp. 303-308
Published by: American Economic Association

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 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE GREAT IRISH FAMINEt

The Great Irish Famine and Population:

The Long View

By TIMOTHY W. GUINNANE*

The Great Irish Famine killed at least 1
million people and led more than that num-
ber to emigrate, but the Famine is not the
only dramatic element in Ireland's popula-
tion history. Between 1700 and 1845 Ire-
land's population more than quadrupled to
over 8 million people. Following the Famine
the population declined for more than a
century. Depopulation did not cease until
1951, and even then increases were modest
and not always sustained. Ireland's popula-
tion history remains a testing ground for
theories about the relationship between
population and economic growth, and it has
some relevance to those issues in contempo-
rary society. This paper first sets the demo-
graphic consequences of the Great Famine
in the context of Ireland's long-term popu-
lation history and then discusses what may
be the most puzzling feature of Irish popu-
lation history, the demographic patterns that
emerged during the second half of the 19th
century. The paper focuses on rural Ireland,
where these changes were most stark.
Ireland's population history has long been
presented in frankly Malthusian terms (e.g.,
Kenneth H. Connell, 1962; D. B. Grigg,
1980). According to this view, population
growth before the Famine was too rapid to
tDiscussants: John R. Harris, Boston University;
Ruth-Ann M. Harris, Northeastern University; T. N.
Srinivasan, Yale University.
*Department of Economics, Yale University, New
Haven, CT 06520. This paper summarizes arguments
and evidence presented in more detail in the author's that saw robust demographic growth in most
The Vanishing Irish: Households, Population, and the other European countries. From 1841 to
Rural Economy in Post-Famine Ireland, forthcoming
from Princeton University Press. I thank John and
Ruth-Ann Harris, Kevin O'Rourke, and T. N. Srini-
vasan for comments.
be sustained by a small, primarily agricul-
tural country. This line of thinking views the
Famine and subsequent depopulation as two
sides of a Malthusian coin: Ireland was first
visited by the positive check in the form of
the potato blight, after which the Irish
turned to the more gentle preventative check
to get their demographic house in order.
Recent research has cast doubt on the
idea that pre-Famine Ireland was overpop-
ulated in any simple sense (Joel Mokyr
and Cormac 0 Grada, 1984; Mokyr, 1985;
O Grada, 1993). Nor does the post-Famine
experience correspond well to Malthusian
thinking, which is inconsistent with some
evidence and tends to obscure the indirect
role of the Famine in the character of the
demographic adjustment that followed.
I. Irish Population in the 18th and 19th
Centuries
Figure 1 presents Ireland's population
from about 1700 through 1975; it includes
England's population for comparison. (In
absolute terms England's population was
about 2.5 times as large as the Irish popula-
tion in 1700.) Population growth in ireland
in the century prior to the Famine was fast
by the standards of the day, averaging 1.4
percent per annum during the period
1751-1841. Today, growth rates like these
are lamentably common-several low-in-
come countries currently grow at more than
2 percent per annum-but for the period
this was rapid indeed. The famine initiated
a century of population decline, a century
1911, the period over which Ireland's popu-
lation fell by half, the populations of coun-
tries such as England and Germany more
303

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304 AEA PAPERS AND
1000-
900 _____ __ _-_
800
700-
600 -
5 500 - _. __
:,400-
> 300 __
200
t 100
S 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975
Year
| Irish population English population
FIGURE 1. POPULATION OF IRELAND AND
ENGLAND, 1700-1970
Notes: Population totals for Ireland prior to 1841 are
conjectural. English figures prior to 1821 are based on
a national sample of parish registers. Pre-1821 data are
for England (less Monmouth) only; later data are for
England and Wales.
Sources: Ireland, pre-1821, Leslie Clarkson's esti-
mates, as presented and discussed in Mokyr and
0 Grada (1984 table 1); Ireland after 1821, official
census; England, pre-1821, E. A. Wrigley and Roger S.
Schofield (1981 table A3.1); England after 1821, official
census. Official census estimates for Ireland and for
England and Wales are reproduced in Mitchell (1980
series BO).
than doubled (Brian R. Mitchell, 1980 se-
ries B1).
Recent research suggests that depopula-
tion would have occurred, famine or not, as
a result of changing external economic con-
ditions. Ireland was a small part of the
expanding Atlantic economy. Depopulation
reflected the Irish economy's reaction to
two external changes. Growing demand for
labor in Britain and North America meant
that Irish workers would have to be paid
more at home or seek their fortunes else-
where. At the same time, the increases in
grain imports into Western Europe-the
so-called "grain invasion -encouraged
Irish farmers to switch from growing crops
to less labor-intensive pastoral agriculture.
Rural districts of England were exposed to
similar forces and in some cases also experi-
enced depopulation during the same period.
Kevin O'Rourke (1991) has shown that for
Ireland overseas labor markets were the
dominant of these two changes for the pe-
riod up to 1876. The prices of agricultural
products shifted more dramatically after
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PROCEEDINGS MAY 1994
1876 than before, suggesting that the pull of
overseas labor markets was relatively less
important from that time onward. For my
purposes, however, the nature of the shock
to which the Irish economy was reacting is
not of primary importance. Ireland's popu-
lation did fall after the Famine. In the
absence of industrialization-the paucity of
which is another great question in Irish eco-
nomic history-one could hardly expect
anything else.
Demographic Components of Depopula-
tion.-Economists are often content to ex-
amine population growth rates rather than
the underlying dynamics that cause those
growth rates. In the Irish case the compo-
nents of population change are instructive.
A population grows through some combina-
tion of positive net immigration, a surplus
of births over deaths, or both. Marriage
patterns in historical Western European so-
cieties add a wrinkle to the births issue. In
most other historical societies nearly all
women married and did so by their late
teens. Many women in western European
societies never married, and most who did
marry waited until their mid-twenties. Be-
cause of what John Hajnal (1983) calls the
"western European marriage pattern," the
number of births per thousand people in a
western European population is a function
both of marriage behavior and the fertility of
marriages. (Extra-marital births complicate
this picture in some societies. Ireland was
not one of them, however; extra-marital
births were rare.) Thus the relationship be-
tween births and deaths is a function of
mortality, marriage patterns, and the num-
ber of children born to couples who do
marry.
Unsatisfactory sources have not permit-
ted agreement on the causes of the pre-
Famine population increase. The most likely
interpretation holds that high marital fertil-
ity coupled with some change in marriage
behavior drove the rapid growth of the late
18th and early 19th centuries (Mokyr and
O Grada, 1984). During the early 19th cen-
tury emigration became common among the
farming classes. Mokyr (1985 p. 230) esti-
mated that at least 1.5 million people left
VOL. 84 NO. 2 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE GREAT IRISH FAMINE 305

Ireland between 1815 and 1845. Because of population was thus heavy emigration com-
this emigration, and perhaps aided by some bined with unremarkable overall birthrates.
changes in marriage behavior, population What makes the depopulation seem more
growth in the two decades prior to the exotic is that the Irish arrived at unremark-
Famine had slowed considerably from its able birthrates through a combination of
peak. large families but low marriage rates.
The Famine initiated mass emigration by
the poor. Net emigration rates from Ireland II. The Famine's Direct Impact
remained high throughout the period up to
World War I. The official tally of emigrants Before considering the Famine's indirect
for the period 1850-1910 is 4.2 million per- role, it is worth considering two counterfac-
sons, although the true number is probably tual questions to get an idea of the Famine's
higher. In many years during this period direct role in Irish depopulation. First, if
emigrants amounted to 1 percent or more the Famine had not occurred, could one
of the population, and emigration fell below still imagine depopulation rapid enough to
this figure consistently only in the 1890's reach the actual 1911 population? The an-
(W. E. Vaughan and A. J. Fitzpatrick, 1978 swer is yes. From 1851 to 1911 the popula-
table 54). The more striking post-Famine tion declined at an average rate of 0.65
development was the emergence of a large percent per year. Had the Famine not oc-
fraction of each cohort who never married. curred, a rate of depopulation of 0.88 per-
In 1851, about 10 percent of Irish adults cent from 1841 to 1911 would have left
aged 45-54 had never married. This figure Ireland with her actual 1911 population.
implies that Irish nuptiality was entirely un- This rate of depopulation is indeed rapid,
remarkable; about the same proportion of but amounts to little more than extending to
English, French, and German adults had larger areas of the country the rates that
never married at mid-century. By 1911 aboutsome regions did experience between 1851
one quarter of men and women aged 45-54 and 1911. The population of County Clare,
in Ireland had never married. The age at for example, declined at a rate of 1.09
which people in Ireland married also rose percent per annum during the period
during this period, although relatively mod- 1851-1911. Whether such depopulation
estly. Marriage patterns in England and could be sustained by the population as a
other major western European countries whole depends, of course, on the 1841 pop-
changed less. Ireland's marriage patterns ulation's age and sex structure. Simulations
are striking, but to call them "unique" is an using demographic projection methods show
exaggeration. Ireland was not absolutely that depopulation rates of 1.09 percent and
alone in seeing a decline in the popularity even higher were, in fact, feasible. This ex-
of marriage during this period. More impor- ample establishes an important point. The
tant, people who never married in Ireland Famine's direct impact on the Irish popula-
were not doing anything that did not have tion was considerable. But if we posit that
long roots in European tradition. Ireland's population had to shrink by the
Irish demographic behavior was distinc- end of the 19th century, which is to say that
tive in another respect for not changing. Ireland would remain heavily agricultural
Most Western European societies experi- and could not support a population of 8
enced a fertility decline starting in the 1870's
million with such an economy, then the
or earlier (Ansley J. Coale, 1986). In Ireland Famine's direct demographic impact was by
the fertility transition came later, not start-no means necessary.
ing until the 1890's or later (O Grada, 1991). This simple counterfactual assumes a
Yet these large families were not sufficient constant growth rate and so ignores an im-
to offset the numbers who would leave Ire- portant aspect of any human population,
land for good, and those who would remain which is its ability to react to a shock such
but never marry and have children of their as a famine. Europe's historical experience
own. The proximate causes of Ireland's de- was to see increases in population growth

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306 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS MAY 1994

rates after a famine or epidemic. Increases
in the land/labor ratio increased wages,
permitting more people to marry and to
marry at younger ages. Higher wages also
increase net immigration rates and may re-
duce mortality. Noting this effect implicitly
poses a different counterfactual: if nothing
else had changed after the Famine, could
population growth rates have increased
enough to make good the losses of
1845-1849? The answer seems to be yes.
Susan C. Watkins and Jane Menken (1985)
have recently addressed the long-run demo-
graphic impact of the recent South Asian
famines, using a simple model that incorpo-
rates a population's ability to react to severe the relationship between wealth and in-
shocks. Their most severe set of assump-
tions (a five-year famine with a 150-percent choices on the other. In the Malthusian
increase in mortality, which reduces the
population by nearly one-quarter) corre-
sponds roughly to the Irish Famine. Even
this simulation implies that 50 years later
the famine's effects are barely noticeable
(Watkins and Menken, 1985 table 3). Yet
their analysis, while entirely credible in the the century (0 Grada, 1993 table 30). This
context they model, incorporates two as-
sumptions that do not pertain to 19th-cen-
tury Ireland: early and more nearly univer-
sal marriage and zero net migration. These
assumptions amount to saying that prior to
the postulated famine the population had
little or no unused reproductive capacity,
and that none of the people born to this
population would be lost to emigration. In
Ireland, on the other hand, the Famine
survivors could in theory have increased
overall fertility through earlier and univer-
sal marriage, and a cessation of emigration
would have meant that none of the new
births would be lost to emigration. In other
words, if a South Asian famine cannot have (Guinnane, 1991).
long-run effects strictly through its impact on
numbers, then the Irish Famine could not,
either. Just how rapidly the post-Famine
population could make good the loss de-
pends, once again, on the specifics of the
age- and sex-structure of the survivors. De-
mographic projection methods confirm what
the Watkins-Menken study suggests: Ire-
land's population could have recovered
quickly. The Famine killed thousands and
forced thousands more to emigrate, but its
impact on simple numbers would have been
erased quickly had external conditions not
changed and had the Famine not brought
about other changes in Irish economic and
social organization.
III. After the Famine
Discussions of post-Famine depopulation
often employ frankly Malthusian ideas, por-
traying emigration and the rising number of
nonmarried people as two different re-
sponses to "population pressure." Yet this
account is inconsistent with two features of
post-Famine history. The first problem is
comes on the one hand and demographic
story a reduction in income leads young
adults to postpone or forgo marriage en-
tirely, reducing birthrates. Evidence on
post-Famine economic growth is imperfect,
but rural incomes per head rose substan-
tially between the Famine and the end of
increase in incomes came during the same
period as the retreat from marriage. Rural
Irish people were becoming less likely to
marry at precisely the time they were enjoy-
ing (on average at least) larger incomes.
The Malthusian story is also inconsistent
with the identity of those who did not marry
in Ireland. In a cross section, the model
implies that nonmarried individuals should
be poorer than those who married. This is
not true in Ireland, at least in the 1901-1911
period. Those who never married were not
restricted to the poor. In fact, wealthy farm-
ers were as likely to remain unmarried as
were poor farmers and landless laborers
The Malthusian model is also inconsis-
tent with the role of emigration. Several
historians have noted a negative time-series
and cross-sectional relationship between
emigration and the proportion of adults who
never married. Earlier interpretations have
claimed the inverse relationship between
marriage and emigration rates as evidence
that increases in the number of single peo-
ple reflect reactions to population pressure.
Where emigration did not release some of

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VOL. 84 NO. 2 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE GREAT IRISH FAMINE 307
this pressure, this interpretation goes, there
were insufficient resources to permit the
marriage of all those who remained.
The relation between emigration and
marriage is actually inconsistent with the
Malthusian story. Rising numbers of never-
married people implies increased poverty,
while falling numbers of emigrants implies
just the opposite. Thinking about this issue
in terms of revealed preference suggests
something different. Emigration was costly
in both money and personal terms, but mil-
lions did leave, and for most emigration was
a real possibility. Many who stayed in Ire-
land and did not marry had implicitly re-
jected the option to emigrate, revealing, in
effect, that Ireland even without marriage
was preferable to emigration. Thus the in-
verse relation between marriage and migra-
tion propensities reveals not the work of
population pressure, but the judgment that
life in Ireland even without marriage was
preferable to emigration for larger and
larger fractions of cohorts coming of age in
the later part of the 19th century. This does
not imply that Irish people did not wish
they lived in a world where marrying and
rearing children were possible without sacri-
ficing anything else, but it does suggest that
to young people in 19th century Ireland
decisions about emigration and marriage in-
volved an economic calculus more subtle
than that envisaged in Malthusian accounts.
IV. The Famine's Role in Subsequent
Developments
Malthusian logic, then, cannot explain the
character of Ireland's adjustment to world
economic conditions. Much of the problem
lies in the model's ahistorical character. Ru-
ral Ireland and rural England both experi-
enced the changing world labor markets and
price conditions that characterized the sec-
ond half of the 19th century; but Ireland's
history dictated the type of adjustments it
would make when faced with shocks from
the outside. Ireland's rural depopulation re-
sulted more than England's from the limita-
tion of marriage. The contrasting adjust-
ments reflect two differences between rural
Ireland and rural England, both rooted in
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their histories. Ireland was dominated by
small peasant holdings, England by capital-
ist farmers. Decisions about emigration in
rural England did not involve relationships
to land, an asset which by itself and through
family relationships provided insurance and
a form of old-age support to those who
would remain in Ireland. The differences in
land tenure reflect earlier history and form
their own contribution to Irish history in the
form of struggles over the land reform (e.g.,
B. L. Solow, 1971). Famine survivors often
felt, rightly or wrongly, that holding land
was the best guarantee against starvation;
by shaping the decision to leave, this land-
tenure system altered the character of Ire-
land's post-Famine demographic adjust-
ment.
The Famine also shaped the conditions
under which later generations of Irish peo-
ple made decisions about migration and
household-formation. The huge upturn in
emigration during the Famine deposited a
large number of Irish people in the fastest-
growing industrial economy of the 19th cen-
tury. Emigration from Ireland was subse-
quently easier, since individuals were often
joining family overseas, and if not family,
then individuals they "knew" through local
connections. Irish emigrants continued to
send large sums home to parents and to
finance the emigration of siblings, leading
couples in Ireland to think of a larger family
not as a burden, but as so many chances in
a generous lottery. Those large families also
produced generations of young people with
a foot in each of two countries and helped
to produce the numerous brother-brother
or brother-sister households that became
something of a substitute for conjugal
households in post-Famine Ireland.
Without external economic change in the
decades following the Famine Ireland might
not have experienced further depopulation.
However, given the economic forces that
brought about depopulation, the Famine's
impact was longer-lasting and more far-
reaching than can be seen in the numbers
who fell victim to starvation and disease
between 1845 and 1850. The Famine left
its stamp on future generations by altering
the decisions young people made about
308 AEA PAPERS AND
migration and household-formation, and so
shaping the character of Ireland's demo-
graphic adjustment.
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