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Agenda
Today’s Reality: FDA Guidance Regarding:
Quality by Design
Continued Process Verification
Test Method Development
FDA Guidance’s – Examples of Recommended use of
Statistical Thinking and Methods
Tools, Methods and Personnel
What is the Appropriate Documentation?
What’s the FDA Looking for?
Right Process Measurement, Data, Tools and Methods and
Interpretation
Useful Standards
Understanding of tool usage and interpretation of results
Tips, Traps and Recommendations
4
“Full implementation of QbD
and modernization of
manufacturing by the
pharmaceutical industry in
development through
manufacturing is expected to
provide lasting benefits to
industry, regulators and
patients.”
Janet Woodcock, Director
FDA Center for
Drug Evaluation and Research
Before the
U.S. House of Representatives
Subcommittee on Energy Policy,
Health Care and Entitlements
5
Quality by Design
Quality by Design
• About Building Quality into Products and Processes
• Based on Effective Collection and Analysis of Data
6
FDA Process Validation Guidance
Importance of Variation
“A successful validation program depends upon information and
knowledge from product and process development. This knowledge and
understanding is the basis for establishing an approach to control of the
manufacturing process that results in products with the desired quality
attributes. Manufacturers should:
• Understand the sources of variation
• Detect the presence and degree of variation
• Understand the impact of variation on the process and
ultimately on product attributes
• Control the variation in a manner commensurate with the risk it
represents to the process and product
Each manufacturer should judge whether it has gained sufficient
understanding to provide a high degree of assurance in its manufacturing
process to justify commercial distribution of the product.”
7
It’s About Variation
So Why Statistics?
Statistical Thinking and Methods Enable Us to
Deal Effectively with Process and Product Variation
8
Process Validation Guidance
Stage 3 – Continued Process Verification
“An ongoing program to collect and analyze product and
process data that relate to product quality must be established
(§211.180(e)). The data collected should include relevant process
trends and quality of incoming materials or components, in-
process material, and finished products. The data should be
statistically trended and reviewed by trained personnel. The
information collected should verify that the quality attributes are
being appropriately controlled throughout the process.
We recommend that a statistician or person with adequate
training in statistical process control techniques develop the
data collection plan and statistical methods and procedures
used in measuring and evaluating process stability and process
capability.”
9
FDA Wants Statistics to be Used
10
FDA Guidance for Industry
Analytical Procedures and Methods Validation for
Drugs and Biologics
VII. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND MODELS
A. Statistics
“Statistical analysis of validation data can be used to evaluate validation
characteristics against predetermined acceptance criteria. All statistical
procedures and parameters used in the analysis of the data should be
based on sound principles and appropriate for the intended evaluation.
Several statistical methods are useful for assessing validation
characteristics, for example, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) to assess
regression analysis R (correlation coefficient) and R squared (coefficient
of determination) or linear regression to measure linearity. Many
statistical methods ……”
References
ASTM E1488 – Statistical Procedures to use in Developing and Applying Test Methods
ASTM E2782 – Standard Guide for Measurement Systems Analysis (MSA),
11
Code of Federal Regulation – Title 21
Part 820 Quality System Regulation
Subpart J – Corrective and Preventive Action
Sec. 820.100 Corrective and Preventive Action.
12
Code of Federal Regulations – Title 21
Part 820 - Quality System Regulation
Subpart O--Statistical Techniques
13
Guidance for Industry and FDA Staff
30-Day Notices, 135-Day Premarket Approval (PMA) Supplements and 75-
Day Humanitarian Device Exemption (HDE) Supplements for
Manufacturing Method or Process Changes (April 2011)
“Summary of the data or information supporting the change, should include:
a summary of the procedures established for the identification, documentation, validation,
review, and approval of the manufacturing changes submitted in the 30-day notice;
the statistical rationale for the sampling method, if you plan to
verify the changed processes by routine sampling and independent
measurement;
a description of how you will monitor and control any manufacturing process you intend to
change;
a summary of the completed validation study that demonstrates that the manufacturing
change can be made without significantly changing the operation of the final device. This
summary should be include: a description of the acceptance criteria;
information on how, using valid statistical methods, you analyzed the
test data;
information that describes the statistical rationale for sample sizes;
a list of any deviations that occurred; and
a determination of the impact of the deviation on the results;
an explanation of how change control procedures were implemented, ………..”
14
Today’s Realities
FDA insists on the use of data and statistics
FDA Process Validation Guidance, January 2011
FDA’s Rick Friedman and Karthik Iyer explain why some
manufacturers need to get a better grip on GMP-related
statistics. …… PharmaManufacturing, June 5, 2012
Data abound ….. Data, Data, Data everywhere
But little information to be found
Big Data – Some believe Big Data will solve all problems?
Data are part of the scientific method
Scientists, engineers and other professionals use data
15
Why Do we Need Statistics?
Because of variation
Its all around us, present in everything we do
Variation affects the performance of our products and
processes
Quality decreases
Productivity decreases
Cost go up ….. Inventory Increases
Risk goes up
Products are not delivered on time
Patients take the wrong drugs
17
More Help Is Here
18
Help is Here (cont’d)
These learnings internalized helps professionals
Develop trust in the value of statistical thinking and
methods in the solution of problems
Builds confidence in one’s ability to be successful
Automobile Analogy
You can drive a car without knowing the mechanical
engineering, combustion engineering, information
technology and other technologies used to operate
the car
Similarly our goal is to enable users to drive the
“statistics machine” without
Knowing all the theory and mechanics of statistics
Being burdened with extensive computations
19
Agenda
Today’s Reality: FDA Guidance Regarding:
Quality by Design
Continued Process Verification
Test Method Development
FDA Guidance’s – Examples of Recommended use of
Statistical Thinking and Methods
Tools, Methods and Personnel
What is the Appropriate Documentation?
What’s the FDA Looking for?
Right Process Measurement, Data, Tools and Methods and
Interpretation
Useful Standards
Understanding of tool usage and interpretation of results
Tips, Traps and Recommendations
20
Current Situation
FDA guidances are not prescriptive.
The reviewers/inspectors are not harmonized!
Different reviewers may make different comments on a
given situation
21
1. Warning Letter – Sampling Plans
Firm using sampling plans incorrectly
Pooled X vials, used only 1 reportable value, but
used n=X in sampling plan.
….based your lot or batch acceptance/rejection
criteria on a single reportable value averaged
from a pooled sample.
…
For ….., you are collecting 3 pooled samples (each
pool = 10 vials). This equates to a lot disposition
action on 3 reportable values with corresponding
AQL of X% and LQ of X% respectively. This is
not equivalent to an X or X plan as claimed in
your SOP.
22
1. Warning Letter – Sampling Plans
Response to 483 indicated firm did not know how to use
and interpret sampling plans correctly.
Firm did not understand concepts of Acceptable Quality
Level (AQL) and Limiting Quality (LQ) and Operating
Characteristic Curve (OC) of a specific sampling plan.
OC Curve with
Producers Risk (AQL) and
Consumers Risk (LTPD)
23
FDA Response – Case A
Questions Use of Valid Statistical Rationale
And Sample Sizes
“Failure to ensure that sampling methods are based on a valid
statistical rationale, are adequate for their intended use, and
that the sampling plans are reviewed when changes occur, as
required by 21 CFR 820.250(b).”
“In terms of the statistical sample, your response cited CAPA;
however, our review of this document did not reveal any
actions regarding sample size vs. lot size. The other
document referenced in your response is your Statistical
Techniques procedures. You have not provided any
documentation regarding the statistical validity of your new
sample size.”
24
FDA Response – Case B
Questions Rationale for Statistical Methods Used an
And Procedures for Use of Selected Methods
“Failure to establish and maintain adequate procedures
for identifying valid statistical techniques required for
establishing, controlling, and verifying the acceptability of
a process capability and product characteristics, as
required by 21 CFR 820.250(a). For example, when the
investigator requested the statistical rationale for
selecting verification testing, your firm said that there was
no rationale.”
25
FDA Response – Case C
Lack of Appropriate Trending Procedures
and Appropriate Statistical Methods
Your firm's response to Observation 3.a is inadequate
because it fails to address appropriately trending the 66,390
complaints received between 1/1/2013 and 7/15/2014
Your firm failed to analyze service reports following
appropriate statistical methods, as required by 21 CFR
820.200(b).
“Your firm failed to adequately establish procedures for
receiving, reviewing, and evaluating complaints by a formally
designated unit, as required by 21 CFR 820.198(a).
26
FDA Response – Case D
Failure to Use Appropriate Sampling Methods and
Provide Statistical Rationale
27
FDA Response – Case E
Failure to Establish and Maintain Procedures for
Identifying Valid Statistical Techniques
Trend Root Causes Not Considered
“Failure to establish and maintain procedures for identifying
valid statistical techniques required for establishing,
controlling, and verifying the acceptability of process
capability and product characteristics, as required under 21
CFR 820.250(a).”
“The trending of the data utilized by your QIT to review and
monitor the effectiveness of the corrective and preventive
actions is inadequate since the variable factors that might
affect the true outcome of the trend were not considered and
thus product characteristics were not established, controlled,
and verified.”
28
Summary: Some Problems Found by FDA
29
Agenda
Today’s Reality: FDA Guidance Regarding:
Quality by Design
Continued Process Verification
Test Method Development
FDA Guidance’s – Examples of Recommended use of
Statistical Thinking and Methods
Tools, Methods and Personnel
What is the Appropriate Documentation?
What’s the FDA Looking for?
Right Process Measurement, Data, Tools and Methods and
Interpretation
Useful Standards
Understanding of tool usage and interpretation of results
Tips, Traps and Recommendations
30
What is FDA Looking For?
31
Make Use of Standards
ASTM
Standard Standard Practice
Demonstrating Capability to Comply with the Test for Uniformity
E2810 of Dosage Units
E2782 Standard Guide for Measurement Systems Analysis (MSA)
Demonstrating Capability to Comply with an Acceptance
E2709
Procedure
E2587 Use of Control Charts in Statistical Process Control
E2281 Process and Measurement Capabilities
E2234 Sampling a Stream of Product by Attributes Indexed by AQL
Statistical Procedures to use in Developing and Applying Test
E1488 Methods
Calculating Sample Size to Estimate, With Specified Precision,
E122 the Average for a Characteristic of a Lot or Process
32
What is FDA Looking For?
Factor in risk/confidence everywhere.
Capability Indices:
Consider the lower confidence interval of capability indices.
If your sample size is too small, you may find that Ppk is 1.4 but the
lower CI for Ppk is below 1.0.
Sample sizes: Use appropriately calculated sample sizes. Make
statements about power, confidence, and risk.
Product Stability Studies: When extrapolating, always use confidence
lines and see where they intersect the spec limit.
Use statistically designed experiments – Collect good data
Randomize, replicate, block when appropriate, execute according to a
protocol, analyze and interpret appropriately.
33
Comments on Specific Methods
34
Measuring and Reducing
Process Risk Using
Process Capability Indices
• Process Capability
• Short-Term (Cp and Cpk)
• Process Performance
• Long-Term (Pp and Ppk)
35
Capability versus Performance
• Process Capability is the
variation the process would
exhibit if only common cause Process
Plasticizer/
Cellulose
.15
150
Temperature
135
51 68
Plasticizer
Designing Experiments
Two-Level Designs
How Many Test Runs Should Do?
39
Portable Power: Number Of Runs Vs. Sensitivity
Bob Wheeler, Technometrics (1974)
2
7 or 8
n =
( )
40
Design of Experiments - Sample Size Selection
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5
n 12-16 22-28 49-64 196-256
43
Problem Solving Approach Identifies the Right Tools
Not the Reverse!
Statistical
Tools
Results ($$)
“Statistics: Ask the Right Questions – Once You Know what the Objectives and
Needs Are, You Can Figure Out Which Tools Can Help Meet Your Goals”, Snee,
Pharma Manuf, Jan 2013, p 15.
44
Statistical Significance is
Not the Same as Practical Significance
Statistical Significance: Observed difference is larger than can be
attributed to random chance variation
Process variation is small: Difference may be statistically significant
but be of no practical importance
p-Value measures statistical significance, not practical significance
Statistical significance must be present before it is meaningful to
assess practical significance
Practical Significance: Determined by size and direction of effect:
Effect (difference) is large enough to:
Have real meaning in context of study and objectives
Findings suggest that you do something in a different way
Justify behavior change – Have an effect on decisions made
Influence the behavior of professionals in the field
“Practical Significance” is a function of factors such as cost,
objectives, priorities, requirements, subject matter knowledge, etc.
45
Appropriate Actions
Effect Statistically Significant?
Effect Practically
Significant? YES NO
YES Take Appropriate Action • Increase Sample Size
• Estimate Effect Size
More Precisely
NO • Take No Action • Action Not
• Look for Other Effects Appropriate
• Keep Effect in Mind • Look for Other
Effect May Become Opportunities
Important Later
46
So What Should I Do?
Use good statistical practice
Develop rationale for procedures
Planning: Use selected procedures according to protocol
Document procedures
Train appropriate personnel on the procedures
Provide appropriate validated software
Demonstrate process understanding
Establish Cause and Effect: Y = f(Xs)
Use appropriate standards
Show that management supports all procedures used
Focus on practical significance of trends and shifts
48
References
ASQ (1999) Quality Assurance for Chemical and Process Industries, 2nd Edition,
Quality Press, page 41, capability confidence limits.
Hoerl, R. W. and R. D. Snee (2012) Statistical Thinking – Improving Business Performance,
John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, NJ.
Snee, R. D. (2013) “Statistics: Ask the Right Questions – Once You Know what the Objectives
and Needs Are, You Can Figure Out Which Tools Can Help Meet Your Goals”,
Pharmaceutical Manufacturing, January 2013, p 15.
Snee, R. D. (2015) “Practical Approach to Data Mining: I Have All These Data, Now What
Should I Do? Quality Engineering, Oct - Dec 2015, Vol. 27, No. 4, 477-487.
Snee. R. D. and R. W. Hoerl (2012) “Inquiry on Pedigree – Do You Know the Quality and
Origin of Your Data?” Quality Progress, December 2012, 66-68
Snee, R. D. , R. R. DeVeaux and R. W. Hoerl (2014) “Follow the Fundamentals - Four Data
Analysis Basics Will Help You Do Big Data Projects the Right Way”, Quality Progress,
January 2014, 24-28.
Weitzel, J., R. A. Forbes and R. D. Snee (2015) “The Use of the Analytical Target Profile in
the Lifecycle of an Analytical Procedure: with an example for an HPLC Procedure”, Journal
of Validation Technology, Vol. 20, Issue 4, Jan 2015