TAIWAN CRISES

Taiwan is an island, official part of China.

Independent democratic country but not internationally recognized by UN.
China- One China Policy. Taiwan is a part of China.
What is strategic ambiguity around Taiwan?
China has claims in both East China and South China sea and if it annexes Taiwan it could
legitimize its claim regarding Exclusive Economic Zones- threat to QUAD- who want indo-
pacific region on the basis of rule based order.
US has expressed its support for Taiwan in case of Chinese annexation but US does not have any
embassy in Taiwan, which depicts that USA does not consider Taiwan a separate state.
Agar separate Embassy- China-US relations further deteriorate. Impact on trade.
The influence of sea power upon history- Alfred Mahan. International trade is a fact. Major
trade via sea. Whoever controls the sea, controls the world- USA took inspiration from it.
Assured to Taiwan based on this.
Ideological and Historical dimensions
Taiwan- multiparty democracy
China- One Party System- CCP

Chang –Kai-Shek- support of USA- liberal ideology

Mao Zedong- Support of Communist Russia.
Both wanted to unify China but on the basis of different ideologies.

Qing Dynasty- 1890s- it was getting weaker. Japan’s attack- First Sino-Japanese War (1894-95).
Result- Treaty of Shimonoseki- as an outcome of this treaty Japan took over Taiwan and Eastern
part of China. Japan also took over Korean Plateau.
Disintegration of China.
SUN YAT SEN- Vision of Unified China- Kuomintang Party- Republic of China. But he died in
1925. His vision got divided into two parts.
1. Nationalist Party – favored rights and democracy. Drew inspiration from West.
2. Communist Party- favored state control. Highlighted inequalities in the West. Karl
marks ideas were suitable for post-industrial societies such as Germany but China was feudal at
that time. Socialism with Chinese Characteristics. The system is a market economy with the
predominance of public ownership and state-owned enterprises.

Internal struggles – civil war- Shanghai Massacre

Japan took advantage of situation and invaded Manchuria.

1943- Chiang Kai Shek met with Roosevelt and Churchill
Meo Zedong began to strengthen itself. This was followed by Japanese defeat in WWII.
The moment Japan left China- Mao met Stalin

Nationalist limit on southern Western front

Both termed their regions as original China. Internationally- Taiwan was recognized as original
China.

Recapture- interpretations rule the world in diplomacy

Quotes Winston Churchill as saying "Diplomacy is the art of telling people to go to hell in
such a way that they ask for directions."
PRC was taking help form Stalin
1950- India recognized PRC and made other nations do the same.

PRC- important actor at this time. Deng Xiaoping- liberal ideas.

Nixon visit to China- A WEEK THAT CHANGED THE WORLD
BOTH INDEPENDENT SOVERIGN NATIONS AT THE PRESENT.
TAIWAN- DOMOCRACY?

27% in China wanted to become part of mainland china

51%- Taiwan independent.
22%- capture mainland China.
ROCK SOLID ONLY IN CASE OF UNPROVIKED
NANCY PELOSI VISIT TO CHINA
August 2022.
 Scholars say nov 2022 mein midterm elections hone thay her political career was at stake
and to counter republicans it was a political stunt to show democrats as courageous in
face of rivals
 Other reason- ideological consideration. Democratic party does not shy away from its
core principles and does not shy away from countering authoritarian regime
 Russia invasion of Ukraine could be a kind of opportunity for states like China to annex
Taiwan and to counter this perception- it was practical indication that US supports China
 Passive blessing of bidden who has shifted his policy towards China. Expressly he stated
that USA will resort to military power in case of Chinese invasion. Previously Chinese
defense commitment were unclear
Chinese response: Calculated but assertive
Response to Taiwan- unprecedented military exercises around Taiwan. Six sides of Taiwan live
military drills were conducted. Some missiles entered into Taiwan airspace just a few dozen km
away from main territory of Taiwan. Exercise for a possible naval blockade- a preplanned
initiative to strengthen its military strategy for annexation
Sanction.
Unprecedented breech of Taiwan’s defense Zone
Air Defense Identification Zone

Response to USA
Announced to suspended different levels of engagement with the USA.
Implications
All parties now understand that military conflict seems eminent- insecurity in region increased
Arms race
Regional polarization
Climate-related impacts