URBAN RETAIL PLANNING PRINCIPLES

for
TOD COMMERCIAL CENTERS

Gibbs Planning Group

Birmingham, Michigan
www.gibbsplanning.com
Copyright 2009
Gibbs Planning Group
 Annual Expenditures Average U.S. Family 2007

13%
Food
25% Other:
Health, Pension,
Insurance, Education

32 %
5% Housing
Entertainment
18%
Transportation

4%
Apparel
Copyright Gibbs Planning Group, Inc 2007 Gibbs Planning Group
 20.2 sf Square Feet Retail per Person

3.3 sf
2.5 sf
2.3 sf 1.1 sf

U.S. Sweden U.K. France Italy

Source: Shopping Centers Today Copyright 2009 Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.
 Largest U.S. Retailers (2008)
$200 b.

$150 b

$100 b.

Wal-Mart Home D Kroger Target Sears Costco Albtson’s Penney

$330 bil. $60 bil $51 bil. $43 bil. $41 bil. $39 bil. $35 bil. $32 bil.
Copyright 2009 Gibbs Planning Group, Inc. Gibbs Planning Group
 2007 Average Sales sf
$575. sf

$275 sf

$ 80. sf

Independent Retailer U.S. Mall Ave. Taubman Centers Ave.

Gibbs Planning Group

Copyright 2009 Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.
 5 Yr. Expected New Retail Construction
(Million Square Feet)

52

45
44

22
20 19

Kohl’s Walmart Target Walgreen Home Depot Dick’s

Sports
Source: ICSC Copyright 2009 Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.
 5 Yr. Announced Department Store Openings
( Number of Stores )

500
410

300

157
150

JC Penney Nordstorm’s Target Walmart Kohl’s

Source: ICSC Copyright 2009 Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.

 5 Yr. Announced Lifestyle Store Openings
10,000
( Number of Stores )

2400

1100

800 800

220

Books Dept. Home Sporting Shoes Apparel

Stores Furnishings Goods
Source: ICSC
Copyright 2009 Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.
 Shopping Center Types

Corner Store 1,400 sf ¼ mile 1000 homes

Convenience Shops 25,000 sf 1 mile 1500 homes
Neighborhood Center 90,000 sf 2-3 miles 7000 homes
Community Center 500,000 sf 5-7 miles 30,000 homes
Regional Center 1 million sf + 12 miles 150,000 homes
Lifestyle Center 200,000 sf 5-7 miles 100,000 homes

Gibbs Planning Group

 Shopping Center Sales & Rents 2006
Median Size Median Sales Median Rent

Corner Store 1,400 sf $ 288.00 $ 11.20

Convenience Shops 20,800 sf $ 202.00 $ 15.20
Neighborhood Center 63,400 sf $ 275.00 $ 10.27
Community Center 184,200 sf $ 275.00 $ 10.45
Regional Center 579,000 sf $ 237.00 $ 22.00
Lifestyle Center 212,000 sf $ 288.00 $ 23.35

Median Rents
$ 15.20 $22.00 $23.35

$ 10.27 $10.45
$11.20

Corner Store Convenience Neighborhood Community Regional Lifestyle

Copyright 2009 Gibbs Planning Group

Source: ULI & ICSC
 Apparel Shopping Center Visits (All Shoppers)

37%

31%

9%
7%

2%

Power Regional Internet Lifestyle Downtowns

Centers Malls Centers
Source: Shopping Centers Today
 Ave. Rents as a Percentage of Gross Sales

9%
8%

6%

2%
None

Dept. Stores Supermarket Apparel Restaurants Dry Cleaners

Source: ICSC
 Median Household Incomes
(2006) $ 54 k
$45,000.

$ 47 $ 44 k

$40,000.

$35,000.

$ 34 k
$30,000
.

$ 30k
Poverty Line $19,000

Black Hispanic White Asian All

Copyright 2009 Gibbs Planning Group

Retail Market Research Process

Supply &
Demand
Analysis

Supportable
Retail
Site & Plan Review Summary
• Types
• Sizes
• Sales

Industry
Contacts

Copyright 2008 Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.

 Table 4: Supportable Retail
The Jackson Memorial Hospital & University of Miami Medical Campus

Estimated
Estimated Estimated Estimated Gross
Annual
Retail Category Supportable Retail Gross Annual Rent Per S/F–
Sales Per
Space Sales* Per YR *
S/F*
Apparel - Women’s 1,400 sf (1 Unit) $260./sf $364,000. $24.sf / $33,600.
Apparel - Unisex 2,400 sf (1 Unit) $260./sf $624,000. $26 sf / $62,400.
Book & Music Store 10,000 sf (1 Unit) $320./sf $3,200,000 $18 sf/ $180,000.
Card & Gifts 2,500 sf (1 Unit) $300. /sf $750,000. $18 sf/ $45,000.
Drug Store /
12,000 sf (1 Unit) $675./sf $8,100,000. $22 sf / $264,000.
Pharmaceutical
Electronics/Computers 3,000 sf (1 Unit) $320. /sf $960,000. $18 sf/ $54,000.
Health & Beauty 1,200 sf (1 Unit) $340./sf $408,000. $35.sf/ $42,000.
Grocery 4,000 sf (1 Unit) $520 /sf $2,080,000. $10 sf / $40,000.
Office Supply 2,500 sf (1 Unit) $260 / sf $650,000. $18 sf / $45,000.
Optical/Vision Care 1,500 sf (1-2 Units) $425 / sf $637,500. $26 sf/ $39,000..
Shoes 1,700 sf (1-2 Units) $330./sf $561,000. $26.sf / $44,200.
Specialty Food Stores 11,200 sf (8-10 Units) $285 /sf $3,192,000. $24. sf / $268,800.
Restaurant W/O
24,500 sf (5-8 Units) $425 /sf $10,412,500 $32 sf / $784,000.
Liquor
Restaurant With
22,500 sf (3-4 Units) $535 /sf $12,037,500. $36. sf / $810,000.
Liquor
Laundry / Dry
500 sf (1 Unit) $190/sf $95,000. $16 sf/ $8,000
Cleaning
Personal Service
4,500 sf $210./sf $945,000. $24 sf/$108,000.
(Hair Care/Nails)
Total Identified $427.10 $26.83 sf /
105,400 sf $45,016,500.
Supportable Retail sf $2,828,000./yr *

Non-Retail Uses:
Bank/Credit Union 12,000 sf --- --- $26. sf / $312,000.
Copy Center 4,000 sf --- --- $18 sf / $72,000.
Insurance 1,500 sf --- --- $20 sf / $30,000.
$23.66 sf /
Totals 17,500 sf --- ---
$414,000./yr
Total Retail & Office $427.10 $26.38 sf/
122,975 sf $45,016,500.
Space sf $3.242,000./yr.*

* Expenditure potentials and Sales stated in constant 2007 dollars - No adjustment has been made for potential inflation.
Figures are for potential gross rents and do not include Common Area Maintenance (CAM) allowances.
 Office Worker Purchases (Before-After-During)
Source: Shopping Centers Today

40 %

30 %

28 %

25 %

20%

10 %

Cosmetics Gifts Home Items Apparel Personal Groceries

Items Drugs

Copyright 2009 Gibbs Planning Group

Small Retailer Income:
Gross Sales: 1000 sf Store x $150.00 sf = $150,000. yr
Net Income: 20% gross margin of $150,000. = $30,000.

U.S. Poverty Level $19,000.

Ave. US Household Income $44,000.

Copyright 2009 Gibbs Planning Group, Inc,

Lake Forest circa 1918
Town Center Study Village of Beverly Hills Gibbs Planning Group
TOD Center Operations Policy
• Maintain Common (and extended) hours
• Be Defensive (watch competition)
• Maintain Quality Store Front Design Standards
• Implement Effective Common Marketing
• Know your Tenants
• Balance National & Local Tenants
• Measure: Sales, Traffic, Weather, Competition, etc.
• Keep High Site Maintenance (Landscape, Walks, etc.)
• Good Lighting
• Require Quality Signage
• Maintain Good Security
• Participate in Industry Associations (ICSC, ULI, CNU, etc.)

Copyright 2008 Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.

TOD Top 10 Management List
• Retain Leading Broker
• Plan Quality Urbanism
• Form Follows Anchor
• Exciting Store Fronts
• On Street Metered Parking
• Prepare for the Next Recession
• Simple Streetscape
• Plan for 20% Expansion
• Measure: Sales, Parking, Pedestrian Counts, etc.
• Update Tenants & Stores Often

Copyright 2008 Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.

Gibbs Planning Group