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3/23/24, 10:33 PM Russia’s War in Ukraine Is Taking a Toll on Africa | United States Institute of Peace
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Russia’s War in Ukraine Is

Taking a Toll on Africa
U.N. Assistant Secretary-General Ahunna
Eziakonwa says inflation and trade
disruption have put countries in a “very
precarious situation.”
Wednesday, June 15, 2022 / BY: Ashish Kumar Sen
PUBLICATION TYPE: Analysis
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Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted Africa’s promising recovery

from the COVID-19 pandemic by raising food and fuel prices,
disrupting trade of goods and services, tightening the fiscal space,
constraining green transitions and reducing the flow of
development finance in the continent, said United Nations
Assistant Secretary-General Ahunna Eziakonwa.
https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/06/russias-war-ukraine-taking-toll-africa 1/17
A food market on May 10, 2022, in Douala, Cameroon, where food inflation,
exacerbated by Russia’s war in Ukraine, is causing hardship. (Tom Saater/The
New York Times)
Speaking at the U.S. Institute of Peace on June 14, Eziakonwa, who

serves as the U.N. Development Programme’s assistant administrator
and regional director for Africa, said the war has put households,
communities and countries across Africa in a “very precarious
situation.”
Joseph Sany, vice president of the Africa Center at USIP, said: “The
critical question before us today is: How can African countries and
their partners leverage their abundant resources and human
capabilities to address the short-term impact of Russia’s invasion in
Ukraine and advance their long-term development and security
needs?”
“In other words,” he added, “how can Africa make the best out of this
very, very bad situation?”
The Pandemic’s Impact on Africa
Prior to 2020, African countries were among the fastest growing in

the world. The COVID-19 pandemic reversed decades of hard-won
macroeconomic, socioeconomic and governance gains on the
continent. For the first time in nearly three decades, Africa’s Human
Development Index dropped. Millions of Africans lost their jobs; some
50 million were projected to be pushed into extreme poverty. Women
and youth were hardest hit. Global trade disruptions constrained
growth and many African countries suffered from a progressively
shrinking fiscal space, said Eziakonwa. The pandemic “worsened
financial and societal inequalities in Africa,” she added.
In response to the pandemic, African countries put in place effective

macroeconomic policies, made strategic investments and boosted
COVID-19 vaccine production and rollout. “While multilateralism
appeared to be shrinking in the rest of the world, it was expanding in
Africa,” Eziakonwa said.
By the end of 2021, Africa exceeded expectations of a 3.7 percent

GDP growth, recording a 4.5 percent growth and “showing its
resilience and its muscle to bounce back,” Eziakonwa said. “The
recovery was fragile … but the continent appeared to be back on
track” toward attaining the U.N.’s Sustainable Development Goals, she
added.
On February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked act of

aggression. The aftershocks of the ongoing war are being felt around
the world, including in Africa.
War Disrupts Critical Imports
While the level of trade between the African continent as a whole and
Russia and Ukraine is insignificant, some African countries rely heavily
on these two countries for critical imports, particularly wheat,
fertilizers and steel. A disruption in these imports could adversely
impact African countries.
From left to right, USIP Director of West Africa programs Oge Onubogu, USIP
Senior Advisor Johnny Carson and U.N. Assistant Secretary-General Ahunna
Eziakonwa discuss the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on African economies.
In 2021, for example, Kenya imported almost 30 percent of its wheat

from Russia and Ukraine. A supply disruption would affect the
production of bread in Kenya, which Eziakonwa noted is the third
most consumed food item in that country. Cameroon imported 44

percent of its fertilizers from Russia in 2021. In West Africa, where
planting season is starting, analysts fear that this disruption could
have a dire impact on crop yields and compromise food security. And
similarly, 60 percent of Ghana’s iron ore and steel imports come from
Ukraine. As a result of the war, the construction industry in Ghana is
likely to face significant challenges.
Government Revenues Impacted
A combination of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine has reduced

trade and taxation revenues of governments across Africa, even as
countries are being forced to spend on social safety nets. “Countries
are being asked to spend more with less coming in,” said Eziakonwa,
adding that “fiscal and monetary responses of sub-Saharan African
countries increased public indebtedness across Africa.”
Meanwhile, downgraded credit ratings have increased borrowing

costs for African countries. UNDP research shows that “biased credit
ratings could be costing six African countries $13 billion in additional
interest rate payments,” Eziakonwa said, adding: “Africa is borrowing
at a much higher cost than the rest of the world.”
Eziakonwa said one of the “most pernicious effects” of the war in

Ukraine is “imported inflation.” She cited the examples of Tanzania,
where overall inflation spiked by 34 percent between February and
April; Namibia, where transportation costs rose by 20 percent
between March and April; and Cameroon, where food prices

increased by 26 percent between February and March.
Warning of a Cold War Redux
The war in Ukraine is a “clear and present danger to multilateralism,”

Eziakonwa said. Indication of this can be found in the fact that
development projects are being postponed or canceled as some
development partners are put off by the higher costs of projects while
others are considering diverting funds to the humanitarian crisis
caused by the war in Europe. There are also signs of Africa’s
development being defunded. “It’s not the time to leave the continent
behind,” Eziakonwa said, adding that there needs to be a greater
understanding that the relationship with Africa is a “partnership of
purpose” and “not a relationship of charity.”
Describing a turn toward a political lens through which to view

development in Africa as a worrying trend, Eziakonwa said: “An
unwelcome tendency towards unilateralism and a return to Cold War
dynamics would be devastating for Africa, and indeed for the world.”
She added: “A Cold War redux will certainly exacerbate the recent
retreat of democratization in parts of the continent where we have
witnessed disruptive and unconstitutional political transitions.” It will
also be discouraging for countries that “are trying to do the right
thing,” she said, while calling for an investment in “robust and
meaningful multilateralism.” She also suggested derisking Africa’s
investment ecosystem and proactively exploring the use of innovative

financing mechanisms.
‘Uncommon Times Demand Exceptional

and Extraordinary Solutions’
In the face of these challenges, a business as usual approach will not

be enough, Eziakonwa said, adding: “uncommon times demand
exceptional and extraordinary solutions.”
She highlighted three areas that should be prioritized by African

countries and their partners:
1. Reframe development finance and rethink the global finance

architecture. “This must start by enhancing domestic resource
mobilization” so that Africa can retain a greater share of the value of
its strategic mineral, agricultural and human resources, she said.
This can be achieved by reducing almost $90 billion in illicit flows
from the continent by improving Africa’s tax effort, raising average
tax to GDP ratios from the current 17.5 percent to 24 percent and
eliminating unnecessary tax waivers for big business.
2. Consistently invest in resilience. Eziakonwa spoke of the need to

“shock proof” development and democracy. Pointing out that
development is not a linear process and that various shocks can
reverse gains, she said “progress without resilience is not
sustainable.” Resilience can be achieved through initiatives that
enable Africa to fully utilize its natural resource wealth, take
advantage of planet-friendly financing mechanisms and focus on
climate risk sensitive investing. Africa and its development partners

need to invest in food and fuel security, greater productive capacity,
and higher value added manufacturing and exports, Eziakonwa
said.
3. Prioritize structural transformation and regional integration.

Eziakonwa said Africa needs to harness digital technologies and
promote free and fair competition globally, intensify support for
regional integration and economic diversification and mobilize
resources to fill critical gaps in technology, skills and infrastructure.
Following her keynote remarks, Eziakonwa participated in a

discussion with Johnnie Carson, senior advisor to the Africa Center at
USIP. Oge Onubogu, director of West Africa programs at USIP,
moderated the discussion.
Eziakonwa maintained that Africa needs to be more assertive about

taking its rightful place in the world. Financial and global institutions
should also understand that an investment in Africa’s well-being is an
investment the world’s well-being. “What’s good for Africa is good for
the world,” she said.
The Promise of the AfCFTA
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which was signed
in March 2018, came into force on January 1, 2021. Carson described
the AfCFTA as possibly the most important pan-African agreement of
the last decade. “It has the prospects and possibilities of really
transforming economic relationships around the continent and
transforming Africa’s economic and commercial relationships with the

world,” he said.
The AfCFTA provides an ideal framework for Africa to rationalize and

harmonize tariffs, eliminate persistent non-tariff barriers and prioritize
the uninhibited flow of trade and people among African countries,
Eziakonwa said. It could lift some 30 million Africans out of extreme
poverty, increase income by $450 billion and more than double the
size of the single Africa market to $6.7 trillion by the next decade, she
said, adding that the world should rally behind the AfCFTA. The
United States, Carson said, could support the AfCFTA just as it has
backed the European Union, the world’s largest single market area.
Role for the United States
Onubogu contended that the United States needs to rethink and

strengthen its strategic relationships with Africa. She asked Carson
how the United States can better engage with African policymakers,
businesses, civil society and the African diaspora around the world.
Carson replied the “relationship should be more comprehensive,

more consistent, more energetic and more engaged.” It is important,
he said, not just to have a broad diplomatic relationship with Africa but
for the U.S. business community to also take a comprehensive and
broad-based look at opportunities on the continent.
The United States “has always looked at Africa as a partner, but

sometimes it has not taken that partnership as seriously and as
committedly as it should be,” Carson admitted. He said the United
States should look for and frame policies that encourage Africa’s
successful integration. That means working more effectively with
regional and subregional organizations like the African Union, the
Economic Community of West African States and the Southern African
Development Community. Further, he said, there is a need to build
relationships at the city-to-city and state-to-state levels as well.
The United States should also look at strengthening commercial ties

with Africa, said Carson. The creation of the U.S. International
Development Finance Corporation has opened the possibility of U.S.
government investment in African commercial business and
development activities. “This is important as a partnership tool,”
Carson explained.
Eziakonwa cited the need to create jobs for Africa’s large and
educated youth population, describing this as “low-hanging fruit.”
“The African continent is facing uncommon and unprecedented

exogenous shocks in the wake of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. It
cannot deal with this alone,” said Eziakonwa. “Ensuring a speedy,
inclusive and sustainable recovery across Africa needs all of us to
come together to make it happen.”
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3/23/24, 10:33 PM Russia’s War in Ukraine Is Taking a Toll on Africa | United States Institute of Peace

Russia’s War in Ukraine Is

PUBLICATION TYPE: Analysis

Share This Print the Page

Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted Africa’s promising recovery

Speaking at the U.S. Institute of Peace on June 14, Eziakonwa, who

very, very bad situation?”

The Pandemic’s Impact on Africa

Prior to 2020, African countries were among the fastest growing in

In response to the pandemic, African countries put in place effective

By the end of 2021, Africa exceeded expectations of a 3.7 percent

On February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked act of

War Disrupts Critical Imports

In 2021, for example, Kenya imported almost 30 percent of its wheat

most consumed food item in that country. Cameroon imported 44

Government Revenues Impacted

A combination of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine has reduced

Meanwhile, downgraded credit ratings have increased borrowing

Eziakonwa said one of the “most pernicious effects” of the war in

between March and April; and Cameroon, where food prices

Warning of a Cold War Redux

The war in Ukraine is a “clear and present danger to multilateralism,”

Describing a turn toward a political lens through which to view

investment ecosystem and proactively exploring the use of innovative

‘Uncommon Times Demand Exceptional

In the face of these challenges, a business as usual approach will not

She highlighted three areas that should be prioritized by African

1. Reframe development finance and rethink the global finance

2. Consistently invest in resilience. Eziakonwa spoke of the need to

climate risk sensitive investing. Africa and its development partners

3. Prioritize structural transformation and regional integration.

Following her keynote remarks, Eziakonwa participated in a

Eziakonwa maintained that Africa needs to be more assertive about

The Promise of the AfCFTA

transforming Africa’s economic and commercial relationships with the

The AfCFTA provides an ideal framework for Africa to rationalize and

Role for the United States

Onubogu contended that the United States needs to rethink and

Carson replied the “relationship should be more comprehensive,

The United States “has always looked at Africa as a partner, but

The United States should also look at strengthening commercial ties

“The African continent is facing uncommon and unprecedented

USIP has a variety of newsletters and announcements with the latest

For Peace in Haiti, Let’s Build on the

Haiti’s new eruption of violence threatens anarchy and famine

Type: Question and Answer

Indonesia’s Nickel Bounty Sows Discord,

Thursday, March 21, 2024

As the world moves toward cleaner forms of energy, specific

Environment; Global Policy

U.S. Plans to Build Africa’s Infrastructure

An interesting trend is emerging in U.S.-Africa relations: even

In the Pacific, U.S. Risks Letting Down its

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

As the United States seeks to shore up alliances and maintain

View All Publications

US admiral: China’s aggression against Philippines headed to

Meet the Press NOW - NBC News

History As It Happens: Anarchy in Haiti - The Washington Times

Giving Up on Haiti Isn’t a U.S. Option - Wall Street Journal

View All News

2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037

About Publications Projects Grants & Fellowships Visit