Pannasastra University of Cambodia

Student PUC’s Name: Matt Shakira

Student PUC’s ID: 68724

Course: Peace and Conflict Studies Advance Research Course

November 2022 - Jan2023

Professor: Desmond J. Molloy

Topic:
 The two most polarizing and discussed ongoing conflicts in the world today are arguably
the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Myanmar coup which has now evolved into a civil war
event distinction between an Eastern, which is an Ukraine country, located in eastern Europe, the
capital is Kyiv located on the Dnieper River in north-central Ukraine and included one more
countries is Myanmar, which is located in South East Asia, the covers an area of 677000 square
and the population union of Myanmar is made up of Composition 135 Ethic group included 8
Major National Races.

Why we took these both countries with distinctions Europe and Asia to discussed, Of
course it’s nothing strange because they are happening the same concurrently, it is common for
people to compare talk about of them.

In fact, the two wars and the negative impacts they are having on the security and
economy in both their respective regions and globe leads to them with the highest level of
international tensions and chaos since the Cold War. Russia was seen as the peak of an escalation
of a long-lasting antagonist posture between the two countries. The 10 months that followed
have seen different outcomes of the fighting while both sides maintain that they are within the
merited position for their actions when they deployed its troop into Ukraine on 24 February
2022. The effects of the war in Ukraine can be felt around the world, like international
transportations, emerging economies food security affected and considerable challenges for
exporters. It has disrupted supply chains and resulted in increasing prices and inflation, among
another thing. From the trade perspective is the biggest consequence of the war is the rise in
commodity prices. The war has affected all three such as metals, energy, and agriculture.

The considerable price increases have an effect on international supply chains and
markets. The result is higher inflation rates worldwide. This may cause shifts in demand, as
consumers are not willing or able to buy what usually would. The current increasing fuel costs
are causing inflation and may result in higher freight tares, it reaches record highs during the
COVID-19 pandemic. Beside this, sanctions against Russia and safety concerns have disrupted
land and air transport touts via Ukraine and Russia. Rerouting these connections is expensive.
And there are limited options to divert shipments via the already disrupted maritime transport
sector. Also, there are fewer black Sea trade routes. This means that even countries that do not
have trade restrictions may struggle to from the region. Ukraine and Russia are among the
world’s main suppliers of agri-food commodities, particularly grains and oils.

At least, they provide over 30 percent of world trade in what 32 percent of barley, 17
percent of corn per maize and over 50 percent of sunflower oils, seeds and meals. Many
emerging or vulnerable economies rely on these supplies for their food security, especially in the
Middle East and Africa. For example, countries such as Benin, Egypt and Sudan source nearly
all their wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia. The options to replace these with reginal trade
are limited. In its report the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
estimates that 20-30 percent of the Ukrainian areas used for winter cereals, maize and sunflower
seed will remain unused or unharvested during the 2022/2023 season. The yields of these crops
are also likely to be lower. Processing and transport have been disrupted too. Decreased
availability of crops further increases prices and competition for alternative source. In such a
difficult market, developing countries may struggle to compete for supplies with developed
countries. For example, Indonesia has banned palm oil export to reduce, domestic cooking oil
shortages and price increases. Indonesia will lift the ban when price have dropped below 14000
rupiahs per liter. Russia is also a leading exporter of nitrogen and potash fertilisers. Many
emerging economies rely on these fertiliser supplies for their yields. Disruption of this market
may affect their food production for domestic consumption and exports.

Besides its effect on imports, the war has also affected exports to Ukraine and Russia.
Disrupted access to these markets is an urgent issue for perishable good, such as fresh fruit and
vegetables. Some products that exporters cannot shop to Ukraine and Russia could be
redistributed to other (EUROPEAN) markets. Still, exporters may not be able to avoid
oversupply. Redistribution also causes increased competition and price reductions. At the same
time, rising energy and fertilizer price are causing higher product costs. This creates a
considerable challenge for exporters. Meanwhile, turning to the other side of the world, in the
Southeast Asian country of Myanmar, armed conflicts between the People’s Defense Force and
the Armed Forces of the Military Junta are taking place all over the country. The People’s
Defense Force is the armed wing formed by the in-exile National Unity Government (NUG)
from youths and pro-democracy activists on 5 May 2021 in response to the coup d’état that
occurred on 1 February 2021 that put the military junta and the Tatmadaw in power.

In Myanmar, according to the United Nations, 1.3 million people have been internally
displaced, and over 13,000 children have been killed while the junta’s army has reportedly
escalated its use of war crimes, including murder, sexual violence, torture, and targeting of
civilians. And we can clearly see from both conflicts are the suffering which they are causing to
the civilians. Civilian facilities and infrastructures in both countries are being either deliberately
targeted in the war of attrition or used for military purpose while the people’s livelihood is
reduced to the minimum. The biggest difference between the wars in Ukraine and Myanmar is
probably the level of interference from international actors to reduce the casualties and suffering
of the people. At the meanwhile, On December 4, 2022, in Ukraine, the Office of the United
Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) verified a total of 6,702 civilian
deaths during Russia’s invasion and 424 of whom were children.

Body

After ongoing to talking more, everyone maybe will focus on the reason why are the
historical foundations of the conflict in Ukraine and Myanmar and what is the position of
international law as regards the invasion of Ukraine and Myanmar and have another reason why
UN not intervened in Ukraine and Myanmar.

Certainly, Russia’s actions appear to be a replay of its moves in Crimea in 2014,

when it annexed Crimea after the region declared itself independent from Ukraine in a
referendum. The United States and most European countries do not accept Russia’s
annexation of Crimea and consider Russia to be unlawfully occupying part of Ukraine.
Russia has not yet annexed Donetsk and Luhansk but could do so in the future. Even if
Russia does not annex the regions, very few other UN members are likely to recognize them
as independent states. If Russia does annex them, the United States and most European
countries will likely consider the regions to be unlawfully occupied by Russia. Russia
previously recognized two regions of Georgia as independent states—South Ossetia and
Abkhazia—after they declared their independence in 2008. Only four other UN member
states—Nauru, Nicaragua, Syria, and Venezuela—recognize the regions as independent. In
contrast, Russia rejected Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence from Serbia, claiming
that Kosovars were not a distinct people and did not qualify for remedial secession. Ninety-
seven UN member states have since recognized Kosovo as an independent state.  The United
States and many European countries support Kosovo’s independence but argue that its
situation is unique and that it did not set a precedent for any other territorial secessions.
an addition to financial sanctions imposed bilaterally by the United States and numerous
other countries, Russia is likely to face widespread condemnation and isolation in
international bodies. Very few governments and law experts will believe that Russia’s
actions are permissible under international law. On Friday, the Council of Europe suspended
Russia’s participation in its Committee of Ministers and its Parliamentary Assembly.
Meanwhile, the UN Security Council voted on a binding resolution condemning the invasion
and requiring Russia to cease its military actions and withdraw from Ukraine. But Russia, as
a permanent member of the Security Council, vetoed the resolution.

On Sunday, the Security Council voted 11-1 (with Russia opposed and three
members abstaining) on a nonbinding resolution calling on the UN General Assembly to
hold an emergency special session to consider Russia’s actions. This Security Council
resolution comports with UN General Assembly Resolution377(V) of 1950 (the so-called
Uniting for Peace resolution), which resolved that in the case of a deadlock in the Security
Council, the General Assembly shall “consider the matter immediately with a view to
making recommendations to members for collective measures.” The General Assembly is
likely to overwhelmingly adopt a resolution opposing Russia’s actions as a threat to
Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, and political independence, as it did in 2014
after Russia annexed Crimea. The General Assembly could also mandate a United Nation
investigation of Russia’s actions, urge member states to impose sanctions on Russia, or
recommend that Russia be expelled or suspended from certain UN bodies. The veto power of
the permanent members of the Security Council makes any intervention by the UN in the
Ukrainian crisis impossible. The permanent members of the Security Council are the United
States, France, United Kingdom, China, and Russia. If just one of the permanent members of the
Security Council vetoes a United Nation resolution, this makes it impossible for the Security
Council to invoke to deal with a threat to international peace. 
In the context of the Ukraine crisis, Russia will veto any measure that attempts to censure it or
act against it at the Security Council. The only option for the rest of the members of the UN that
make up the General Assembly is to effect non-binding resolutions that have more symbolic than
substantive value.  

Second, the UN is ignored by major powers that have the most influence in it. This is
especially true when using the mechanism of the UN to resolve conflict will become an
inconvenience, a hindrance or an irritant to the wider interests of major global players. But, when
it is in their interests to use the infrastructure of the UN to advance their interests, major powers
will gladly use the UN mechanism. In the context of Ukraine, Russia ignored the UN and its
conflict mediation mechanisms in pursuing its interests in Ukraine. Russia invaded Ukraine
ignoring UN and international norms of respect for the sovereignty of nations and a rule based
international order in the conduct of international affairs.

Russia is not alone in contemptuously ignoring the UN in pursuit of its international

interests. The US and its allies in Nato violated similar established norms of international affairs
in their intervention in Kosovo and Libya, only reverting to the UN to broker peace settlements
once their strategic interests were achieved in Kosovo and Libya. With disregard from the most
powerful members that make up the United Nations, any action by the United Nation in Ukraine
remains untenable.  
Third, the UN secretary general remains a bureaucrat who serves at the pleasure of major
powers on the Security Council. In the context of Ukraine, the secretary general finds himself in
between a rock and a hard place. He must walk a thin line of not appearing to favor one side or
the other on the Ukrainian conflict. This is because the effectiveness of the UN is entirely down
to the cooperation of its members and their respect for the core values, norms, and international
rules-based order advanced through the UN Charter. More importantly, the secretary general
cannot appear to be antagonising the permanent members of the Security Council as they hold
large diplomatic, political, and financial leverage over the United Nations. Ukraine reflects the
crisis of multilateral diplomacy which weakens the ability of the secretary general to intervene.  

With major powers hopelessly deadlocked in the UN over the crisis in Ukraine, there is space for
regional multilateral organisations like  (OSEC), the Collective Security Treaty
Organisation (CSTO), Nato and Brics to immerse themselves in the mediation space to resolve
the crisis. In addition to this, neutral players that are removed from the conflict and not seen as
favouring one side or the other, can lead mediation efforts to resolve the crisis. In this regard,
quasi state actors like the Holy See (Vatican) can come into play. The moral authority of the
Pope and his stock of diplomatic capital can become a valuable tool in mediating to solve the
Ukrainian crisis. 
Separately, on December 21,2022, the United Nation Security Council adopted
Resolution 2669 92022) on the Situation in Myanmar with a veto of 12 in favor to none
against, and three abstention(China, India, and the Russian Federation). The council
demands an immediate end to all forms of violence thought the country. It urges the
Myanmar military to immediately release all arbitrarily detained prisoners. Including
President Win Myint and State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Council reiterates its call to uphold democratic institutions and processes and to
pursue constructive dialogue and reconciliation in accordance with the will and interests of
the people of Myanmar. It also calls for concrete and immediate actions to effectively and
fully implement ASEASN Five Pointe Consensus. And Finally, it requests the Secretary-
General or through his Special Envoy to report to the Council.

This is the first ever Security Council resolution on Myanmar, nearly two years after
the military coup dead on Febuary 1, 2021. Credit is to be given to the Unites Kingdom for
ist hard work in drafting the resolution and passing it through a tough negotiation process. It
is understandable that many important points in the initial draft had to be removed to avoid
a veto by certain permanent members.

This is a long overdue resolution that has been eagerly awaited by the people of
Myanmar. Since General New Win usurped the State’s power by overthrowing the
democratically elected government in 1962, the military has ruled Myanmar with an iron
grip for nearly 60 years, controlling the entire national economy and making the generals
billionaires. Following a few years of democratic transition under Aung San Suu Kyi, the
military staged a third coup in 2021. In that too, military has encountered much more
decisive resistance from people from all walks of life due to extensive military operations
throughout the country 1.4 million people are displaced and hiding in forests or
mountainous areas without food, clothing, medicine, or a people place to sleep and more
than 13000 people are detained in inhumane conditions in notorious prison. And more than
7 million children are out of school. This is too much for the people on Myanmar.

The people of Myanmar therefore wanted to seek help from the United Nation to
intervene under the doctrine of Responsibility to Protect as there are credible reports that the
junta has committed crimes against humanity against its own people. Many attempts to
propose Responsibility to Protect in the UN Security Council have nonetheless failed in
view of the threatened vetoes of China and Russia. Statement in the Council has promoted
the Unites Nation to tactfully hand over the Myanmar conflict to ASEAN, the regional
organization of which Myanmar is a member.

In resolution, the Council uses strong and commanding terms, at least all of the
operative appears to be legally binding on the military junta as well as all Unites Nation
member States. As an immediate response to the resolution, the foreign affairs ministry of
the junta announced on December 23, 2022, that the resolution contained several intrusive
elements on the Myanmar’s internal affairs that contravened the principles and purposes of
the United Nations, and thus they would not accept it.

One important question, therefore is what would happen if the military junta did not
comply with the resolution. What can we do?

Certainly, the military junta can be possibly being pressures by the strong and
coordinated action of like-minded United Nation Member States and ASEAN. If the junta
still not comply, the non-compliance would seriously affect its image, and in that case, the
Security Council could adopt a stronger resolution if China and Russian Federation do not
oppose it.

Overalls, the Myanmar military’s coup and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, both
countries have become more heavily sanctioned and diplomatically isolated and the
leadership of both countries seem don’t care and worries about the problems while Russia
its noted that although Russia is the world largest economy and critical supplier of energy
and raw materials and as for Myanmar, amounts 1.4 million people are displaced and hiding
in forests or mountainous areas without food, clothing, medicine, or a people place to sleep
and more than 13000 people are detained in inhumane conditions in notorious prison. And
more than 7 million children are out of school, for Ukraine population has force nearly 13
million people to flee their home. Ukrainians has force itself to apply for a temporary
protection in the EU primarily consisting of women, children, and the elderly. Not only,
they believe that they can weather international sanctions and both governments are displaying
callous disregard for the economic crisis that they are causing their populations as we can see
both countries have quickly reversed over a decade of economic progress. It’s a concern and
also, have brought these already friendly countries closer together. Recently, Myanmar
commander have grown closer with china for making annual visits to Russia and Myanmar has
readily backed Russia’s junta, diplomatically and with arms, they are much more now gearing up
for tighter economic and trade relations.

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