Alaminos City, Pangasinan

MIDTERM OUTPUT
(UKRAINE AND RUSSIA)

In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements in AE 5

International Business and Trade for the 2nd Semester of School Year 2022-2023

Submitted by:
 UKRAINE AND RUSSIA

“Russia’s War Against Ukraine”

Russia is the largest country in the world, occupies one-tenth of all the land on Earth. It

spans 11 time zones across two continents (Europe and Asia) and has coasts on three
 oceans (the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic). It is the world's ninth-most populous country

and Europe's most populous country. The country's capital and largest city is Moscow.

The current President of Russia is Vladimir Putin. Throughout his presidential terms and

into his second term as the prime minister, he has enjoyed high approval ratings amongst

the Russian public.

Ukraine is the second-largest country in Europe, is twice the size of Italy and slightly

smaller than the state of Texas. Bordered on the south by the Black Sea and the Sea of

Azov, Ukraine shares borders with the eastern European countries of Belarus, Hungary,

Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, and Slovakia. The current President of Ukraine is

Volodymyr Zelensky, a Ukrainian politician and former comedian and actor who has

served as the sixth and current president of Ukraine since 2019.

There are no diplomatic or bilateral relations between Ukraine and Russia. An

international armed conflict has existed between the two states since Russia invaded the

Crimean Peninsula in February 2014, and Russian-controlled armed groups seized Donbas

government buildings in May 2014. Following the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity in 2014,

Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula was occupied by unmarked Russian forces, and later illegally

annexed by Russia, while pro-Russia separatists simultaneously engaged the Ukrainian

 military in an armed conflict for control over eastern Ukraine; these events marked the

beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War. In a major escalation of the conflict on 24 February

2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of the Ukrainian mainland across a broad front,

causing Ukraine to sever all formal diplomatic ties with Russia.

Cause: The historical background of the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine

A variety of social, economical, cultural, ethnic, and linguistic factors contributed to the

sparking of unrest in eastern and southern Ukraine in 2014, and the subsequent eruption of the

Russo-Ukrainian War, in the aftermath of the early 2014 Revolution of Dignity. Following

Ukrainian independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, resurfacing historical and cultural

divisions and a weak state structure hampered the development of a unified Ukrainian national

identity.
YEAR EVENTS

1917 A communist group called the Bolsheviks seized power. Their

leader, Vladimir Lenin, created the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics

(U.S.S.R., or the Soviet Union) uniting Russia and 11 other countries.

The Soviet Union fought on the side of the United States in World

War II, but relations between the two powers and their allies became

strained soon after the war ended in 1945. The United States and many of

its allies were worried about the spread of communism, the type of

government the Soviet Union was. (In a communist society, all property

is public, and people share the wealth that they create.)

1991 That ended in 1991 when the Soviet Union broke up after many of

its republics—such as Ukraine, Lithuania, and Estonia—decided they

didn’t want to be part of the communist country anymore.

2014 Russian troops invaded the Crimean Peninsula, an area of land in

southern Ukraine bordered by the Black Sea. Putin said that the people of

Crimea had voted for independence from Ukraine.

Many Ukrainians and leaders from several other countries didn't

like Putin’s actions and thought the "vote" wasn't real. But in March of

that year, Putin signed a treaty with some Crimean leaders that said that

Crimea was part of Russia. Ukrainian officials announced that they

would not recognize the agreement and still considered Crimea part of

Ukraine, not Russia.

Russian forces remained in Crimea to keep Ukraine from taking it back.

Later in 2014, fights along the eastern border broke out between

Ukrainians and Russian-backed rebels who wanted all of Ukraine to

become part of Russia.

2022 In February 2022, Putin announced an invasion on the country

and sent troops to take over major cities, including the capital, Kyiv.
Effects of Russia-Ukraine War on Global Economy:

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, its war against Ukraine has had a disastrous

impact on civilian life, killing thousands of civilians, injuring many thousands more, and

destroying civilian property and infrastructure. But aside from these effects of war on both

countries, there are also other negative and significant impacts brought by this event on the

global economy as a whole.

As two major suppliers of both energy, food and fertilizer commodities, Russia’s conflict

with Ukraine has caused disruption in supply for both developing and developed countries.

1. Supply of energy

The most fundamental change has been Europe’s shift away from reliance on

Russian gas. ‘Europe will never return to meaningful dependency on Russian fossil

fuels. The collapse of the supply of piped gas from Russia has forced Germany and

many of its neighbours to source energy elsewhere including from Asia, the Middle

East, and potentially Africa. ‘These two things – Europe buying up everyone else’s

energy and the concern of being over-reliant on China for supply of renewable energy

materials – have had knock-on geopolitical implications.

2. Food supply disruption

 With both Russia and Ukraine being major exporters of agricultural fertilizers, the

disruption to global food chains drove up prices to all-time highs, fuelling a cost-of-

living crisis in both developed and developing nations.

Additionally, disruption of both harvests and a Russian grain blockade threatened

to create a humanitarian catastrophe in developing countries as many – such as 85 per

cent of Africa – depend on imported wheat. The World Food Programme (WFP) says

the crisis remains at ‘unprecedented proportions’ with ten times the number of people

facing famine compared to five years ago.

3. Global Defense Spending Surges

The war in Ukraine has bolstered Europe's commitment to increase defense

spending, as has a perceived threat from China. Major defense manufacturers will

benefit. This trend has already been reflected in the surge of their share prices.

Whether manufacturers can ramp up to meet the demands remains a question.

4. Slower Economic Recovery from the Pandemic

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, projections estimated global economic growth in

2022 would be around 5 percent. The war in Ukraine was a “massive and historic

energy shock” to the markets, according to a November 2022 report by the OECD.
The “shock” of the war was one of the main factors that had slowed economic growth

in 2022 to just 3.1 percent, and why the OECD projected it to slow to 2.2 percent in

2023. The war, the report found, has had the greatest impact on Europe's economy,

where growth in 2023 is projected to be just 0.3 percent.