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HOME > EX PERT SP E AK > THE RUSSIA-UK R AINE CO NFL IC T: A WAR O F AT TRI TION

RAISINA DEBATES AUG 01 2022

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The Russia-Ukraine conflict: A war of attrition

NATALIYA BUTYRSKA

For Ukraine to win this war, successful diplomatic and military approaches,
a stable economic recovery, and the aid of partners are needed.

KREMLIN KYIV MOSCOW PUTIN RUSSIA UKRAINE

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY WAR WEST

The war in Ukraine is not going according to the scenario Russia planned
before the invasion. The Kremlin underestimated the ability of the
Ukrainian military, the will of Ukrainians to ght for their freedom, and the
solidarity of the transatlantic community. Since the start of the war at all
negotiations, Ukraine’s primary demand is the withdrawal of Russian
troops, followed by a discussion of the mechanism for the return of
Donbas and Crimea (occupied in 2014). The main goal of the Ukrainian
government was and remains the restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty and
territorial integrity.

Moscow, however, refuses to consider these demands, while trying to grab

more Ukrainian territory. In newly captured regions, the Russian Army
immediately establishes an occupation regime, putting in use the Russian
currency, while banning the Ukrainian language and Ukrainian symbols, and
turning o Ukrainian mobile communications and radio broadcasts.
Currently, 20 percent of Ukrainian territories are under Russian occupation.
Although at the beginning the Russian authorities justi ed their aggression
against Ukraine with the “need to protect the rights of Donbas”, the desire
to seize Kyiv and the occupation of parts of the Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya and
Kherson regions indicate a goal to establish control over entire Ukraine.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has an existential nature for both sides. For
Ukraine, this is a matter of preserving sovereignty and survival as a nation.
For Russia, it is the will to satisfy the ambitions of great power, a status it
lost after the collapse of the erstwhile Soviet Union. The conquest of the
territory of Ukraine increases Moscow’s chances of further intervening
against the Baltic countries and the countries of Eastern Europe and
establishing its in uence in the post-Soviet space.

The war has now entered a phase where Russia’s main goal is to
reduce Ukraine’s resources—weaken the economy and the army and
destroy the infrastructure.

The war has now entered a phase where Russia’s main goal is to reduce
Ukraine’s resources—weaken the economy and the army and destroy the
infrastructure. The Russian Army also combines intensive battles along the
front line, shelling cities, villages, and infrastructure that are outside the
limits of military operations. During the war, more than 3,000 rockets were
red, which led to the death of many civilians, including children. The main
goal of it is to put additional pressure on the Ukrainian population and
government to weaken their resistance and encourage Kyiv to make
concessions. Today, there are no reasons for Ukraine’s capitulation. The
terms of future peace are to be determined on the battle eld. Meanwhile,
each side tries to gain advantages by having a stronger negotiating
position.

The possibility of a countero ensive by Ukrainian troops depends on the

speed of delivery and enough western weapons. Long-range artillery
systems, which the Ukrainian army nally managed to obtain, helped to
destroy the military warehouses of the Russian Army in the occupied
territories and to slow down the attacks in Donbas.

Since the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian authorities have been forced
to ght on several fronts—military, economic, diplomatic, and
informational. Each successful step of Ukraine—obtaining western
weapons, approval of the status of a candidate for membership of the
European Union and the introduction of seven packages of sanctions
against the Russian Federation by the West, required extraordinary e orts
of the Ukrainian authorities and President Zelensky personally. The policy
of the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
regarding Ukraine has always been based on Russia’s reaction. Russian
aggression against Ukraine has become a serious challenge for European
countries, a lot of which for many years were afraid to provoke Putin and
continued to conduct “business as usual” with him.

Currently, when the western countries demonstrate their solidarity with

Ukraine in its struggle against the Russian Federation, they face new
challenges—the energy and food crises caused by the Russian–Ukrainian
war. Rising prices for utilities, food, and rising in ation are putting pressure
on western governments to determine how long their societies will be
willing to send signi cant resources to support Ukrainians. Vladimir Putin
knows how sensitive democratic countries are to the moods of their voters,
primarily when it comes to economic stability and social protection. By
prolonging the war in Ukraine, the Russian authorities aim to exhaust not
only the Ukrainians themselves but also their partners.

Rising prices for utilities, food, and rising inflation are putting
pressure on western governments to determine how long their
societies will be willing to send significant resources to support
Ukrainians.

Meanwhile, the direct losses caused to the Ukrainian economy have already
amounted to US $95.5 billion and these losses have been increasing daily.
Western partners recently held the rst meeting in the Swiss city, Lugano,
regarding the post-war reconstruction plan for Ukraine. Ukrainian
authorities have been additionally working on establishing the
compensation mechanism for damages caused to Ukraine.

Russia is deliberately destroying Ukrainian enterprises and product

warehouses to disrupt the functioning of the Ukrainian economy, which is
expected to drop by 35 percent this year due to the Russian aggression.
After two months of shock, the Ukrainian government managed to restore
supply chains, relocate enterprises from the occupied territories, and
conduct a sowing campaign, but Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports
creates a serious obstacle to Ukrainian exports.

About 22 million tons of grain from last year’s harvest, planned for export,
are currently blocked in Ukraine’s granaries. Currently, farmers have
started harvesting the new crop. Failure to receive funds threatens the
bankruptcy of farmers and agricultural enterprises and may also lead to the
termination of the next year’s production cycle. Thus, though there is a
global food grain shortage, due to the actions of Russia, Ukrainian farmers
cannot sell their products. For Ukraine, the possibility of unblocking grain
exports has two sides. On the one hand, it provides an opportunity to solve
the problems of the farmers, on the other hand, it requires strong security
guarantees for both: Cargo vessels and Ukrainian ports against possible
capture by Russians. The concern of Ukrainians is fully justi ed, because
the day after the signing of the agreement on the safe transportation of
grain and food products from Ukrainian ports in Istanbul, Russian troops
attacked the Odesa port with Kalibr missiles. For this agreement, Ukraine
tried to secure guarantees from international partners because it does not
trust Russia. Negotiations and signing of the agreement took place with
the participation of the United Nation and Turkey. Russia has pledged not
to attack civilian vessels travelling through the special corridor, as well as
three agreed ports—Odesa, Yuzhnyi, and Chornomorsk—in exchange for
lifting the sanctions on its agricultural sector. The shelling of one of the
ports lowers the level of trust in Russia and complicates the
implementation of the agreement. In such conditions, it will be di cult to
guarantee the safety of ships and their crews, because the Russian
Federation will be able to re at them at any moment or even use their
cover to attack Ukrainian ports. Russia’s actions diminished the authority of
Turkey, which seeks to become a constructive mediator in the Russian–
Ukrainian war. Secretary General of UN Antonio Guterres personally
supervised the negotiation process on unblocking Ukrainian ports.
Successful implementation of the agreement would allow him to report on
the merits of the UN in solving the world food crisis. Taking into account
the organisation’s failure to prevent war and bloodshed in Ukraine, this is
at least an opportunity to illustrate its e ectiveness.

However, reaching an agreement on unblocking the ports, as we can see,

does not guarantee its proper execution and change Russia’s military plans
against Ukraine. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, recently stressed that
the Russian invasion will continue until all objectives are met. This decision
has not been changed, even though Russia is su ering heavy losses. It is
estimated that in ve months of the war, Russia has already su ered more
human losses than the Soviet Union did in 10 years of the Afghan war. In
2014, Russia easily annexed Crimea and occupied parts of Donbas due to
the population in this region who supported Russia and Putin personally.
Moscow tried to increase its in uence using linguistic and cultural
similarities, the Orthodox Church of the Russian Patriarchate, sponsorship
of pro-Russian parties and integration of Kremlin’s agents into Ukrainian
authorities. For the past eight years, the Ukrainian authorities worked to
neutralise the centres of Russian in uence inside Ukraine, but this problem
was not fully resolved.

Russia and Putin personally have a lot of experience in hybrid wars. It

is important for Ukraine not to get caught in any trap by Moscow,
such as a ceasefire, or peace negotiations on the terms of the Russian
Federation, while Moscow continues to wage the war.

According to the results of the investigation, due to the improper

performance of duties or the assistance of some o cials, especially among
security and law enforcement agencies, the Russian troops managed to
quickly penetrate and capture Ukrainian territories such as Kherson and
Zaporizhia regions. In this regard, President Zelensky initiated a “great
clearance” amongst the employees of the Security Service of Ukraine and
the General Prosecutor’s O ce, and changed their chairmen—Ivan
Bakanov and Iryna Venediktova. The main complaint against the heads of
these two departments was the presence of a large number of
collaborators amongst the employees of the Security Service and
prosecutor’s o ces.

It is obvious, that Ukraine faces a lot of challenges. To win this war,

successful diplomatic and military approaches, a stable economic recovery
and the aid of partners will be required. Russia and Putin personally have a
lot of experience in hybrid wars. It is important for Ukraine not to get
caught in any trap by Moscow, such as a cease re, or peace negotiations on
the terms of the Russian Federation, while Moscow continues to wage the
war. This will only postpone the end of the war, increase psychological
pressure due to growing civilian casualties, spread disinformation, and
increase activities of the pro-Russian lobby in the world, particularly in
Europe, to pressure Ukraine to give in to Russia.

EUR A SIAN STUDIES INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS STR ATEGIC STUDIES

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Nataliya Butyrska

Nataliya Butyrska is a free-lance expert on International Relations from Kyiv, Ukraine.

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