HERCOR COLLEGE

COLLEGE OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE EDUCATION

DISPUTE RESOLUTION AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

CRIM 106

CASE STUDY ANALYSIS PAPER

Instructor: PCapt. Rogie E. Baril (Ret) RCrim. DPA

Student: John Steve Baradero

Year/Section: BSCRIM 3-E

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 Ukraine vs. Russia

I.INTRODUCTION

Ukraine and Russia are two countries that border each other in Eastern Europe. On Feb.

24, 2022, Russia sent its army into Ukraine and began trying to take over the country by force.

This invasion surprised many people, as it was the first major war in Europe for decades.

But Russia and Ukraine have had a difficult relationship for centuries. To understand what’s

happening now you have to dig into 1,300 years of history.

Both countries trace their beginnings to the same medieval kingdom, called Kyivan Rus.

It was founded in the 800s by a group of Vikings, the Varangians, who came from Northern

Europe to rule over the local people. Kyivan Rus spanned what is now Russia and Ukraine, and

its people, the Slavs, are the ancestors of today’s Russians and Ukrainians. Its capital was the

city of Kyiv – the same Kyiv that is now the capital of Ukraine. Moscow, capital of today’s

Russia, was also part of Kyivan Rus.

In February 2022, Putin again claimed that Ukrainians and Russians are one people. He

sees Ukrainians and Russians as brother nations and says that because Russia is the older brother,

it should get to be in charge.

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 Most Ukrainians disagree. They have been inspired by the words of their president,

Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He told Putin that Ukrainians want peace, but that if they need to, they

will defend their country’s independence.

Putin invaded, and this time his plan is to take over the entire country. Ukrainians are

now fighting the Russian army, trying to defeat what they say is an occupation.

In Russia, the people had no say about whether to invade. Many are protesting against it.

Many families have both Russian and Ukrainians members. Because of this, a lot of people on

both sides of the border do not want to fight a war against each other.

The United States and much of Europe are on the side of Ukrainians. They believe

Ukraine should be able to decide its own future.

II.BACKGROUND

Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine has been raging for one year now as

the conflict continues to record devastating casualties and force the mass displacement of

millions of blameless Ukrainians.

Vladimir Putin began the war by claiming Russia’s neighbour needed to be “demilitarised

and de-Nazified”, a baseless pretext on which to launch a landgrab against an independent state

that happens to have a Jewish president in Volodymyr Zelensky.

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 Ukraine has fought back courageously against Mr Putin’s warped bid to restore territory

lost to Moscow with the collapse of the Soviet Union and has continued to defy the odds by

defending itself against Russian onslaughts with the help of Western military aid.

Battle tanks from the US, Britain and Germany are now being supplied for the first time

and Mr Zelensky toured London, Paris and Brussels in early February 2023 to request fighter jets

be sent as well in order to counter the Russian aerial threat, a step the allies appear to have

reservations about making, although Joe Biden has since visited Kyiv in a gesture of solidarity.

Much of the fighting has been concentrated around the key eastern city of Bakhmut of

late, with bombardments and heavy artillery fire taking place as Russian forces ramp up a major

new offensive with the one-year anniversary of the war looming.

In the autumn, Mr Zelensky’s forces launched a major campaign of their own to retrieve

the besieged city of Kharkiv and succeeded in driving Russian “orcs” out of Kherson but, as

Ukraine’s resistance grows, Mr Putin’s threats of escalating the fight grow too, causing concern

globally about the prospect of nuclear warfare being unleashed.

Mr Zelensky has said Russian officials have begun to “prepare their society” for the

possible use of nuclear weapons but added that he does not believe the Kremlin is ready to use

them.

The president believes action is needed now to avert that scenario, pointing out that

Russia’s threats pose a “risk for the whole planet” and that Moscow has “made a step already”

by occupying the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest nuclear station.

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 In response to the ever-growing sense that his invasion has backfired, Mr Putin staged a

televised address in September in which he ordered a partial military mobilisation of 300,000

reservists and reiterated his threat to use nukes against the West, a major escalation of his

rhetoric in which he assured the world: “It’s not a bluff.”

The Kremlin’s faltering troops, otherwise saddled with outmoded equipment and sub-

standard supplies, have employed brutal siege warfare tactics throughout the war, surrounding

Ukraine’s cities and subjecting them to intense shelling campaigns, a strategy previously seen in

Chechnya and Syria

. Ukrainian cities in the east and south have been battered by Russian missiles in pursuit

of gradual gains, while the targeting of residential buildings, hospitals and even nurseries and

memorials have led to outraged accusations of civilians being intentionally targeted and of war

crimes being committed on a massive scale.

The discovery of mass graves in towns like Bucha and Izium have shocked the world.

Mr Zelensky’s initial appeals for Nato to implement a no-fly zone remain unanswered as

the West fears such an act would be interpreted as a provocation by Russia and draw the alliance

into a much larger war over Eastern Europe.

III. EVALUATION

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 Rumbling tensions in in the region first began in December 2021 when Russian troops

amassed at its western border with Ukraine, creating widespread international concern but not

acting until the final week of February 2022, when Mr Putin moved to officially recognise the

pro-Russian breakaway regions of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s

Republic (LPR) as independent states.

This enabled him to move military resources into those areas, in anticipation of the

coming assault, under the guise of extending protection to allies.

That development meant months of frantic diplomatic negotiations pursued by the likes

of US secretary of state Antony Blinken, Mr Macron, Mr Scholz and then-UK foreign secretary

Liz Truss in the hope of averting calamity had ultimately come to nothing.

Going back even further to 2014 gives the current situation more context.

Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula that year in retaliation after the country’s

Moscow-friendly president, Viktor Yanukovych, was driven from power by the midwinter mass

protests seen in Kyiv’s Maidan Square, an angry reaction to his decision to reject a treaty

strengthening economic and diplomatic ties between his country and the EU, probably acting

under pressure from the Kremlin.

Weeks later, Russia threw its weight behind two separatist insurgency movements in

Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland, the Donbas, which eventually saw pro-Russian rebels in

Donetsk and Luhansk declare the DPR and LPR independent states, although their claims went

entirely unacknowledged by the international community.

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 More than 14,000 people died in the fighting between 2014 and 2022, which devastated

the region.

Both Ukraine and the West have accused Russia of sending troops and weapons to back

the rebels but Moscow has denied the allegations, stating that the “Little Green Men” who joined

the separatists’ cause were not really Russian soldiers or had done so voluntarily, hence their

lack of identifying insignia, an argument few believe.

The agreement is highly complex and remains contested, however, because Moscow

continues to insist it has not been a party in the conflict and is therefore not bound by its terms.

In point 10 of the treaty, there is a call for the withdrawal of all foreign armed formations

and military equipment from the disputed DPR and LPR: Ukraine says this refers to forces from

Russia but Mr Putin is adamant in his denials that his country has any of its own troops in the

contested regions, despite the obviousness of the untruth.

As discussed, the fighting has become entrenched around the towns of Bakhmut and

Soledar since late 2022, with Russia’s savage Wagner Group mercenaries battling Ukrainian

forces in heavy mud, rubble and sub-zero temperatures in what has become a savage war of

attrition.

Of the latest aggressions against Bakhmut, the deputy commander of Ukraine’s Svoboda

battalion, Volodymyr Nazarenko, said: “The city, the city’s suburbs, the entire perimeter, and

essentially the entire Bakhmut direction and Kostyantynivka are under crazy, chaotic shelling.”

But after months of costly and violent warfare like this, it is believed that Russian citizens

are finally beginning to see through the fog of Kremlin propaganda and understand Mr Putin’s

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misjudgement of the war for what it is, the aggressor having suffered devastating losses and

economic consequences as a direct result of its leadership’s actions.

IV. PROPOSED SOLUTION OR CHANGES

History shows that wounded pride and the perceived weakness of an opponent are both

powerful triggers for aggression. This observation is not intended to justify Russia’s invasion of

Ukraine, but rather meant to analyze the factors that led to Moscow’s hostile behavior.

Europe is in a peculiar situation. In terms of defense, the continent is extremely weak –

not only from a strictly military standpoint, but also when it comes to civil defense (emergency

plans for citizens’ protection, reserve stocks of food and medication), as well as cyber and

energy security and protection of supply lines. There is no culture of defense. The military

situation is inadequate to the point of being absurd.

Together, the European Union and the United Kingdom are home to more than 500

million inhabitants. Some 330 million people live in the United States, and 150 million in Russia.

These 515 million Europeans, with a massive defense budget of roughly $260 billion dollars (EU

countries plus UK) for 2021, need 330 million Americans (with a defense budget of some $780

billion) to defend them against 150 million Russians with a defense budget of less than $70

billion. Europe’s problem is a lack of willingness and strength. Defense and deterrence require

determination.

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 With the U.S. having turned away from Europe and Washington’s leadership looking

weak, it was enough to tempt the Kremlin into adventurism. But the West’s second mistake

toward Russia was a lack of respect. Russians were considered backward, and accused of not

living up to the European “value standards” – even if it is unclear what these standards are and

doubtful whether the people of Russia are even interested in adopting them. For many Russians,

this state of affairs reinforced the opinion that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest

geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.

This was where things stood when Russia invaded Ukraine. The Kremlin was taken

aback by the effective defense readiness of the Ukrainian population. Moscow may have also

underestimated the solidarity of the international community. Many fear escalation. Nuclear

warfare is possible, even though it is unlikely since it would mean the destruction of the Russian

leadership. This unfortunately does not necessarily exclude a focused nuclear attack on military

targets in sparsely populated areas. It is more probable that other tools could be used for

escalation, such as heavy cyberattacks against Europe – which is not well prepared for this

threat. The Kremlin could also restrict exports, especially of gas to Germany, or worse, food.

Many countries depend heavily on Russian and Ukrainian grain as well as edible oils.

African and Middle Eastern countries could face food price inflation and shortages. The

resulting food scarcity would trigger heavy migration toward Europe. And Russia has already

declared that it would reduce its exports because it needs its food reserves to feed its own

population.

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 Russia still has the means to do a lot of damage and could keep on destroying Ukraine

and threatening the West. The most pressing short-term goal is to stop the war without showing

weakness. This also means that Russia must not be put through unnecessary humiliation.

However, the West must clearly show that further military aggression will be met with

determination. It is a good sign that European countries, especially Germany, have realized the

need to strengthen their defense efforts.

It is also encouraging that direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow have

begun. Turkey played an essential role in achieving this diplomatic success. That the Czech,

Polish and Slovenian heads of governments made a trip to besieged Kyiv also sent a clear signal.

But now a cease-fire must come first, and then a solution can be found.

V. RECOMMENDATION

These made a big impact on worldwide economy that affects each and everyone to the

peak of its problem. Like in our country Philippines we deliberately manage to hold the problem

in economy. Russia is one of our supplier, in the war between them and Ukraine affects our

country, Philippines in the field of oil and gas the distributions of this items that out country

needs the most has affects our consumers to the point that they demand a fund or supplemental to

help them and give them more moral and financial support in the high demand of the issue. This

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issue of Ukraine and Russia made more and more conflicts not only in the Philippines but in the

whole worldwide that gives more and more another issue to pop up.

The demand of the gas and oil prices are more in demand during the war of the two

country. This leads to our loss and more demands in supply but in a high costs. And until now

this two country is still on war.

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