BQA1014 Quantitative Analysis Models for Business TRI 2 2022/2023

Tutorial 11: Time Series Analysis

1. The following data shows the orders (in RM 000) received by a company from year
2020 to 2022.

Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

2020 1580 1880 2020 3240
2021 1680 1980 2100 3390
2022 1770 2160 2320 3740

a) Find the trend by means of moving average.

b) Based on part a), find the seasonal factors by using the additive model.
c) Based on part b), calculate the seasonally adjusted figures for the 4 quarters
of 2022 using the additive model.

2. A large shop opens six days a week, Monday to Saturday. The sales for three
weeks, in RM100, were recorded as below:

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

Week 1 142 154 98 128 182 285
Week 2 151 166 102 141 192 302
Week 3 159 172 106 146 199 320

a) Using a moving average, find the trend and the average daily adjustments.
b) Forecast sales for the first two days of Week 4, and briefly discuss the likely
accuracy of your forecast.

3. The following data shows the output of a factory over a 3-week period. The factory
works a 5-day week.

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

Week 1 86 92 104 98 78
Week 2 90 99 110 102 80
Week 3 93 101 116 110 83

a) By means of a moving average, find the trend and the average daily
variations.
b) Seasonally adjust the data for Week 3. What does this show?

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BQA1014 Quantitative Analysis Models for Business TRI 2 2022/2023

4. The sales of an electrical items of a company for the year 2018 to 2020 are listed
below:

Year Sales (RM 000)

1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter
2018 48 44 26 38
2019 65 32 30 35
2020 73 38 34 46

a) By means of moving average, calculate the trend and the average seasonal
components with a multiplicative model.
b) Forecast the sales for the first and second quarters of the year 2021.

5. The personal savings as a percentage of earned income for a particular state in a

country are listed below:

Year Personal savings (%)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 9.1 7.9 7.7 5.9
2021 10.6 7.2 7.3 6.3
2022 10.9 9.1 8.5 7.4

a) Determine the quarterly seasonal factors by using the multiplicative model.

b) Forecast the percentage savings for the 1st quarter of 2023.