Experiential Learning Assignment

Group details:

Group number: 92

Name WILP enrollment ID

1 Aditya Chaudhary 2021mb21843
2 Saurabh 2021mb21864
3 Sachin Sehrawat 2021mb21852
4 Rishabh Singh 2021mb21922
5 Allam Amani 2021mb21868

From Given dataset we have ‘F’ as a data set.

DATA SET – F:

Sales Sales
Year Quarter values Year Quarter values
2018 1 1483 2020 1 4943
2018 2 2970 2020 2 3563
2018 3 1508 2020 3 4766
2018 4 2605 2020 4 1584
2019 1 2488 2021 1 6310
2019 2 3508 2021 2 1875
2019 3 3291 2021 3 6672
2019 4 4732 2021 4 5397

Steps Performed :

Step 1: Created a table in excel sheet with three columns, Year, S.NO(Time period) & Actual Sales values as below:

S. NO(Time Actual
Year Period) Sales - F
2018 1 1483
2019 2 2970
2020 3 1508
2021 4 2605
2018 5 2488
2019 6 3508
2020 7 3291
2021 8 4732
2018 9 4943
2019 10 3563
2020 11 4766
2021 12 1584
2018 13 6310
2019 14 1875
2020 15 6672
2021 16 5397
Step 2 : Made a scatter graph using “Time Period” & “Actual Sales - F” as below from the data set given.

Actual Sales -F
8000

7000

6000

5000 f(x) = 213.539705882353 x + 1790.85

R² = 0.359870827208308
4000

3000

2000

1000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Step 3 : Calculated the forecast using the trend line equation. :

y = 213.54x + 1790.9

Ex : Forecast (Y) = 213.54*1 + 1790.9

Forecast (Y) = 2004.39

Year Quarter S.NO(Time Actual Sales

Period) Sales -F Forecast
2018 1 1 1483 2004.39
2019 2 2 2970 2217.93
2020 3 3 1508 2431.47
2021 4 4 2605 2645.01
2018 1 5 2488 2858.55
2019 2 6 3508 3072.09
2020 3 7 3291 3285.63
2021 4 8 4732 3499.17
2018 1 9 4943 3712.71
2019 2 10 3563 3926.25
2020 3 11 4766 4139.79
2021 4 12 1584 4353.33
2018 1 13 6310 4566.87
2019 2 14 1875 4780.41
2020 3 15 6672 4993.95
2021 4 16 5397 5207.49
Step 4 : Divided the actual sales by the forecasted sales
for each quarter from 2018 to Year. 2021 and then calculated the
average value of actual/ Q S. No(Time Period) Forecasting Value forecast sale of Q1, Q2, Q3 &
Q4. 2022 17 5421.03
a. Seasonal indices of Quarter 1: 1.08
2022 18 5634.56
b. Seasonal indices of Quarter 2: 0.95
c. Seasonal indices of 2022 19 5848.10 Quarter 3: 1.03
d. Seasonal indices of Quarter 4: 0.93
2022 20 6061.64
Referred table 4.2 format from book as
mentioned in the instructions and derived below data for our data set.

Functions used:
 Actual/Forecast = ( Eg: 1483/2004.39)
 Average of ratio for each quarter = AVERAGE(Eg: 0.74, 0.87, 1.33, 1.38)

Time Actual Sales

Year Quarter Actual/ Forecast
Period Sales Forecast
2018 1 1 1483 2004.39 0.74
2019 1 5 2488 2858.55 0.87
2020 1 9 4943 3712.71 1.33
2021 1 13 6310 4566.87 1.38
Average Q1 : 1.08
2018 2 2 2970 2217.93 1.34
2019 2 6 3508 3072.09 1.14
2020 2 10 3563 3926.25 0.91
2021 2 14 1875 4780.41 0.39
Average Q2 : 0.95
2018 3 3 1508 2431.47 0.62
2019 3 7 3291 3285.63 1.00
2020 3 11 4766 4139.79 1.15
2021 3 15 6672 4993.95 1.34
Average Q3 : 1.03
2018 4 4 2605 2645.01 0.98
2019 4 8 4732 3499.17 1.35
2020 4 12 1584 4353.33 0.36
2021 4 16 5397 5207.49 1.04
Average Q4 : 0.93

Step 5: Calculated forecasted values for each quarter of 2022 by using “y = 213.54x + 1790.9” equation. With time
period values as 17, 18,19 and 20
Step 6)
Now let us find corrected value for the quarters of 2022
Ratio = Actual/Forecast
Eg: 2022 Q1 = avg of ratios Q1 * Forecast value of Q1
= 5859.20

Forecast Values for 2022

Year.Q S.NO. Sales Forecast Seasonal Index Corrected Forecast
2022.1 17 5421.03 1.08 5859.20
2022.2 18 5634.56 0.95 5325.64
2022.3 19 5848.10 1.03 6007.64
2022.4 20 6061.64 0.93 5663.77

Hence trend line equation for our data set is:

Y= 213.54x + 1790.9

Y= Forecast value of respective quarters of each year

X= t values of respective quarter