Chapter 2

WALLERSTEIN MODEL
He profoundly challenged modern social science through his concept of the historical
social system.
- society should not be equated with a particular country, but rather at larger
scale of the social system
- since 1450 the social system has been the capitalist world-economy
- primary geopolitical powers are called hegemonies or hegemonic power
- the basis for hegemony is economic strength that translates into a dominant
influence in global trade and finance
- hegemony is seen as an economic process for selfish goals and not the
global political benevolence of Modelski’s world leadership
For Wallerstein periods of hegemony are rare. His model suggests that other political
scenarios, without one dominant state, may emerge.

MODELSKI MODEL
The model is cycle of world leadership and provides a structure within which the
actions of states and other geopolitical actors may be interpreted
- his model is not capable of pretending events, it’s a historical model that
interprets a wealth of historic data in a simplified framework - descriptive
model
His view of geopolitics is limited to conflicts between the major powers; smaller
countries and geopolitical actors that are not countries
This model is useful for introducing the idea of a geopolitical structure and offering a
context for current geopolitical events.

CYCLE OF WORLD LEADERSHIP

Power is a function of global reach - the ability to influence events across the world
- world powers rests upon the ability of one country to concentrate ocean-going
capacity under its own control
- insistence on the important role of sea-power
Each cycle of world leadership lasts approximately 100 years and is made up of four
roughly equal phases of about 25 years
Modelski’s model of world leadership is dynamic, the strength of world leader rises
and falls.

PHASES OF WORLD LEADERSHIP

1. PHASE OF GLOBAL WAR - to act as a world leader is decided through a

period of global war, world leader is challenged by countries believing they
should inherit the mantle, coalitions are constructed
2. PHASE OF WORLD POWER - once victory has been achieved the
geopolitical project of the new world leader is enacted, new institutions are
established, the new agenda is welcomed and followed
3. PHASE OF DELEGITIMATION - the “imposed” order is welcomed, the
benevolence of the world leader can be questioned
4. PHASE OF DECONCENTRATION - the world leader expends its materials
and ideological capacity in reacting to challenges. Challenges are more
frequently, violent and organized campaigns. The world leader is called upon
to react militarily

THE USA AS A WORLD LEADER

Period of global war (1914-45) - the US played a minor role in the former conflict
while it came. At the end of World War II, the US was able to set a global agenda
around the twin themes of national self-determinism and development that
established its position as world leader

Phase of world power - institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, UN,
NATO were established to enforce and legitimate the new world leader’s agenda

Phase of delegitimation - dissent towards the US’s world leadership emerged - The
Soviet Union, Vietnam War exposed the world leader to allegations. The Korean War
and the Vietnam War are evidence that the US suffered from violent coordinated
military challenge.

Phase of deconcentration - The anti-US terrorism of al-Qaeda had sporadic

successes in Africa and the Middle East prior to the devastation of 9/11 and the
heralded “War on Terrorism.”
the “War on Terrorism” is a period of deconcentration preceding a new phase of
global war, or the global war itself

the Cold War shows that the US was challenged strongly much earlier than
Modelski’s model would expect. The world leader was unable to extend its influence
globally, being excluded from the Soviet bloc and facing competition from socialist
movements in Africa, Asia, and the Americas.
A key event in the era of United States’ world leadership was the demise of the
Soviet Union and the collapse of the Iron Curtain.
The Cold War represents a victory in a Modelski style global war that has ushered in
a second consecutive cycle of world leadership for the US, under the guise of
President George H.W. Bush’s “new world order.”

The most likely interpretation is that the Cold War signified a limited but significant
challenge to the US’s world leadership. In other words, the period of world leadership
was muted and the period of delegitimation amplified

IMPERIAL OVERSTRETCH

Global opinion is just one aspect explaining the decline of world leadership. The link
between demands on the world leader's military and its economic strength has also
been emphasized. Initially, global naval capacity enforces the new global agenda
through gunboat diplomacy, cost-effective in deterring dissent. However, as
challenges intensify, land conflicts increase, raising economic and ideological costs,
draining the world leader's power and inviting more challenges. The ghastliness of
warfare fuels incidents used by opponents to challenge the world leader's moral
authority.

PROS AND CONS

PROS
helping in putting particular events into a historical perspective
greater understanding of the event, its significance and implications
long-term historical perspective requires a consistent measure of power
the essence of the model is global reach, the ability to influence the behaviour
of other countries across the globe
Modelski forces to look at the phasing of the preference for order
the contradiction in the measure of power and the operation of the politics of
world leadership

CONS
the most important concerns toward Modelski’s model is philosophical
logical problem of historical determinism
philosophical concern - structural determinism
reside within his conception of what is geopolitics - he focuses upon the rich
and powerful countries; poorer countries of the “global south” are deemed
irre;evant in his system of challenge, war, leadership
the geography is limited in two senses - it sees state territoriality as the only
space of politics and it concentrates on just a part of the globe