COLD WAR IN A THEORETICAL MODEL FRAMEWORK

George Modelski: A Brief Introduction

• George Modelski (1926-2014): a major contributor to I.R theory (macro-eco/ urban eco/ MNCs)
• PhD in I.R from London University (Theory of Foreign Policy)
• Professor of Political Science at George Washington University (30 years)
• Early interest in comparing international systems
• Best known for: long regular cycles of world leadership from 15th century to present
• Book: Sea power in Global Politics 1494 – 1993 (1988)
• Book: Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change (2008). Propounded World
System Evolution Theory in I.R.
• Emphasized brining together theory, history and evidence in unravelling global political
processes
• 2012: Received Bronze Kondratieff Award for contributing to development in Social Sciences
• Interest in naval history/ world power based on ‘ocean going’ capacity / Concept of total
tonnage
• Notion of power – unidimensional, a function of global reach.
• Descriptive model (not predictive)
• Dynamic Cycles of world leadership (Each phase = 25 years)
Modelski’s Model of World Leadership Cycle: Phase 1

• Phase of Global War (25 years)

• World superpower pulled in a global war
• Decline in ability to act as world leader
• Challengers believe they should inherit the mantle.
• Coalitions for and against are constructed.
• Various conflicts and wars erupt.
• One of the powers emerges with ‘innovation’.
• Both material and ideological innovation are necessary to impose global
order.
Modelski’s Model of World Leadership Cycle: Phase
2
• Phase of Global Power Status
• Post victory, geopolitical project is enacted by:
• New international institutions
• New norms
• Some norms and ideas are inherited.
• On the whole new agenda is welcomed and warmly followed.
Modelski’s Model of World Leadership Cycle: Phase
3
• Phase of Delegitimating
• Over the time dissent grows as expectations are not met.
• Benevolence of world leader is questioned.
• Its actions are perceived as increasingly self serving.
• Alternative agendas are given an ear.
• Challenge to the world leader begins here.
• World leader remains strong.
Modelski’s Model of World Leadership Cycle: Phase
4
• Phase of Deconcentration
• Challenges become stronger.
• World leader reacts by expending material and ideological resources.
• Expending brings weakness in national power and more vulnerability.
• Challenges are violent and organized campaigns.
• World leader reacts militarily.
• Exhaustion of resources base
• Contradictions between rhetoric and actions is highlighted.
• Legitimacy is increasingly questioned .
• Spiral of challenge and reaction brings the phase of global war.
Source: Geopolitics, Collin Flint (Routledge)
Table: Cycles of World Leadership
War Period Emerging Global Leader Emerging Challenger
1494-1517 Portugal Spain
1579-1609 Netherlands France
1688-1713 Britain (1) France
1792-1815 Britain (2) Germany
1914-1945 United States USSR

Source: Modelski Summarized by Joshua Goldstein (1988)

Modelski’s World Leadership Cycle
Brief Comments:
• War in Iraq
• Mission in the name of peace and humility: War atrocities coming to light
added fuel to the fire
• Similarly , abuses in Abu Gharib: sheer contradiction in representation and
reality.
• Korean war (1950) and Vietnam war (1955)--- too early??? Should have
happened at least 50 years after WWI-I !!!

• For Modelski:
• In cold language, wars are decisive instruments for deciding the coming global
leader.
• World leader carries the burden of security of all rather than state centric actions.
• Concept of innovation is neutral and is not the imposition of winner’s ideology.
• 21st century can be an American century as Brits had two consecutive cycles.
The U.S and Modelski’s Model

• Global war ranged from 1914-1945.

• Minor role in WW-I and decisive entry in WW-II.
• Post WW-II, U.S sets a twin themed global agenda: self determinism and development
(Modernization theory).
• IMF, NATO, UN established
• Dissent against US developed much quicker (Korean and Vietnam war)
• USSR: Immediate ideological and military threat: U.S excluded from Soviet bloc
• Vietnam war exposed the global leader to allegations- European style control of ex colonies
• Korean war and Vietnam war suggest that U.S entered the phase of deconcentration much earlier
• Al-Qaeda threat in the Middle East and Africa pulled the U.S in war on terrorism
• Thus, it is geopolitical guesswork to interpret that phase of deconcentration came earlier for U.S.
The U.S and Modelski’s Model
• An argument:
• U.S completed its first cycle at the demise of USSR and entered the 2nd cycle.

• However, lack of overt conflict during the CW, undermines this argument.

• Alternative views might help!

• The cold war was a mutually beneficial drama (E.P Thompson, 1985 and Konrad, 1984)
• The C.W provided ground to control allies in their respective spheres.
• Provided an excuse of military occupation of western and eastern Europe.
• Consensus that poor parts of the world be dominated by the two powers
CONCLUSION

• Most Likely Interpretation can be…

• CW was limited but significant challenge to the U.S

• Period of world leadership muted, while that of delegitimating was amplified.