ASSESSMENT NO.

2
QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING

1. The Director of the Graduate Program of Technological University of the Philippines

wants to forecast the number of students who will enroll in Master of Management (MM)
next semester to determine how many subjects/classes to schedule. The Director has
accumulated the following enrollment data for the last eight semesters.

Semester Students Enrolled in MM

1 40
2 45
3 35
4 42
5 50
6 58
7 49
8 65

a. Compute a 3-semester moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 9.

b. Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast (α = 0.3) for the enrollment data.
c. Compute a linear trend line forecast for the enrollment data.
d. Compare the 3 forecasts using MAD and indicate the most accurate. What is the best
forecast for the 9th Semester?
FORECAST VALUES FORECAST ERRORS
Enro lle d
Mo nth MA WMA ES TP MA WMA ES TP
MM
1 40 W1=1 α=0.3 α=0.6 1 36.7 3.33

2 45 W2=2 40 10 2 39.9 5 35 5.09

3 35 W3=3 41.5 31 3 43.1 6.5 4 8.14

4 42 40 39.2 39.6 33.4 4 46.4 2 2.83 2.45 8.6 4.38
5 50 40.7 40.2 40.3 38.6 5 49.6 9.33 9.83 9.72 11.4 0.38
6 58 42.3 44.8 43.2 45.4 6 52.9 15.7 13.2 14.8 12.6 5.14
7 49 50 52.7 47.6 53 7 56.1 1 3.67 1.36 3.97 7.1
8 65 52.3 52.2 48 50.6 8 59.3 12.7 12.8 17 14.4 5.67
TOTAL ERROR 40.67 42.33 56.78 90 39.24
MAD 8.133 8.467 8.111 12.86 4.905
 Trendline Projection
70

60
f(x) = 3.23809523809524 x + 33.4285714285714
50

40

30

20

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9