Impact of COVID-19 on the

Aftermarket

December 2020
 Sales of new light passenger vehicles
In 2020, sales of new passenger cars will decrease by 11% compared to 2019.
Sales of Russian brands cars will fall by 5.6%, sales of foreign cars - by 12.7%.
Evolution of new light passenger car sales

Foreign cars Russian brands Total - 11%

2 868 728

2 822 587

2 672 177
2 548 216

2 382 385
801 600

609 586
1 827 332

511 057

1 723 901

1 670 962
651 221

1 522 330
1 500 357

1 487 130
437 391
1 399 790

1 355 879
587 352

401 456

402 550
353 220
317 835

1 106 952 380 178

1 004 718 395 072

1 040 735 315 144

2 067 128

1 239 980

1 896 995

2 213 001

2 161 120

1 944 994

1 182 522

1 169 110

1 322 445

1 268 412
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*

1,670,962 new passenger cars were sold in 2019. 2

Average fleet age: 9.8 years (and will continue to grow)
The average age of the Russian passenger car fleet coincides with the age of the Italian car fleet.
Based on the results of 2019, the age of the car fleet in Russia is growing faster than the nearest similar parks.
Average age of the park

12-month dynamics

+1% +4% +1%

12,7 12,3
11,2
9,8 9,8 9,6 9,1

Poland Mexico Spain Italy Russia Germany France

In 2020, the average age of the Russian passenger car fleet is 9.8 years. 3
2020 market activity by the end of the year

First forecast: June

January - May June - December year-end ❑ Self-isolation from March 30, 2020
❑ Reducing car use
-30.5% -12,6% -19,4% ❑ Restrictions on movement and maintenance

Forecast Review: October

January- ❑ Lockdown is over, but restrictions remain
September - December year-end
September ❑ Vacation period: auto: preventive work
❑ Implementation of deferred demand
-22,5% +3% -8,8% ❑ Improvement of the forecast to the optimistic
scenario

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Aftermarket Outlook 2023
Impact on park size and age composition
An increase in the age of the fleet is a worldwide trend.
Competition is increasing in the 3-6 year car segment.
Passenger car fleet (million units) and average age
Forecast
8,3 8,6 9,0 9,4 9,8 10,2 10,3

Park (in million units)

Average age 32,33 32,32 32,42 32,49 32,50 32,32 32,13

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 * 2022 *
To the previous year - 0% +0.3% +0.2% 0% -0.6% -0.7%

Age structure of the park

Forecast
15 years and more 15% 15% 15% 16% 16% 17% 18%
10 - 14 years
15% 17% 20% 23% 23% 23% 26%
20% 19% 18%
7 - 9 years 18% 22% 24%
10% 14% 18% 23%
5 - 6 years 18% 17% 16% 12% 9%
18% 16% 12%
3 - 4 years 9% 9% 10%
21% 17% 14% 14% 15% 14% 14%
0 - 2 years
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

According to the forecast, as of January 1, 2022, the size of the fleet will be 32.14 million cars, the share of cars under the age of 3 years will be 14%. 5
Aftermarket Outlook 2023
Car use. Forecast
+6.5% mileage 2021 vs 2020
Average annual mileage, km -4.3% mileage 2021 vs 2019

Vehicle fleet age

Driver
behavior
15 000

14 500 14 258 14 405 14 148

13 969
14 000
13 781
13 500
12 997
13 000 Work from home
12 500 12 960
12 000 Economic
11 500 situation
11 000

10 500 Using public

10 000 transport
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Mileage is expected to decrease by 10.2% in 2020, then increase by 6.5% in 2021, which is a 4.3% drop from 2019. 6
Change in turnover for 2020
Tire shops are the most optimistic, they hope for a minimal reduction, only 4%.
Independent offline services are pessimists. Their forecast is a drop of 9%.
Change in turnover for 2020 (Jan-Dec) compared to 2019. Respondents forecast
Average: -5% -8% -9% -6% -4% -8% -9%

100%

90%
20% 14% 8% 2% 16% 9% 6% Increased
80% 25%
28%
70% 27% 55% 35%
60%
41%
42% Without changes
50%

40%
64% 69%
30% 59% 56%
20% 38% 43% 43% Decreased
10%

0%
Official dealer Independent chain Independent Private garage Tire Service / Body shop Shop
car service off-chain car Tire Center
service

20% of authorized dealers expect their turnover in 2020 to increase overall compared to 2019.
7
October 2020
Aftermarket Outlook 2023
Cumulative forecast for Russia 2021
Sales vs 2019 Park Annual mileage
10.3
-7% Years
-1.1% -4.3%
1-1-2022
2021 Average vs. 2021
vs age 1-1-2020 vs
2019 2019

1 550 000 32 130 000 13 781

Sales in 2021 Park size for 1-1-2022 Mileage in 2021

Price changes Macroeconomic

Mix indicators(vs. 2019)
RMP brand-quality
-0.5% GDP Household
growth income
+7.0% -1.0% -0.6 pp
Discount
-0.8% -2.1%

2021 vs 2019: +1.0%

Unemployme
nt rate 8
Conclusions
Increased competition in the segment of cars aged 3-7 years due to a decrease in the fleet of corresponding age groups;
A shift towards more economical auto parts options
2019-2021
2019 was the peak for the number of cars 0-3 and 5-7 years old.

In the future, until 2023, the number of active cars on the road will decrease, which will entail increased competition in
the struggle for the consumer.

Vehicle mileage will recover to 2019 levels.

Chain maintenance services will increase their presence in the market: work standards have improved, they respond
faster to market challenges in terms of cost (in particular, the choice of more budgetary components, flexibility).

At the same time, in 2021, some players will feel the lack of financial resources to a greater extent: it is possible to
change the category of loan quality for borrowers who have not successfully survived the lockdown in 2020.

The purchasing power of the population in 2020-2021 will not improve compared to 2019, more budget service options
will be chosen, while the share of independent work (DIY) will not increase significantly.

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