Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) ISSN 1681 8997

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10424475

Assessment of Environmental Emissions of the Timber

Industry in the Congo Basin
Jean Felix Mabiala* and Philémon Nsi Ella**
University of Omar Bongo, Libreville, Gabon
Abstract: Despite the abundant literature on the relationship between
industrialization and environmental quality, the study of the environmental impact
of the wood industry sub-sector remains unexplored. The objective of this article is
therefore to evaluate the environmental emissions of the wood industry sector in
the Congo Basin. The wood industry was captured by three indicators: log
production, local wood processing and exports of processed wood. As for the
quality of the environment, it was measured by CO2 and PM2.5 emissions. The
ARDL method was used on data from Gabon during the period 1980-2022. The
results revealed that the wood industry sector has significantly degraded the
environmental quality. Furthermore, these results validated the existence of the
Environmental Kuznets Curve. Therefore, appropriate policy support is needed to
promote integrated industrial sites with effective coordination and collaboration
among relevant stakeholders. This collaborative work not only makes it possible to
produce quality wood, but also to reduce the concomitant environmental impacts.

Keywords: Wood Industry Sector, Environmental Emissions, Integrated Industrial

Site, Gabon

1. Introduction
Climate change has had an impact on Africa's GDP. The continent's GDP has declined by
5-15% due to climate change. The high warming scenario will have particularly serious
consequences for African economies: the reduction in GDP per capita growth in this
scenario is expected to be between 16 and 64% by 2030 (AfDB, 2022). Africa is not the
only continent suffering losses from climate change; other continents are no exception.
According to the 2017 Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health, which used data from
the 2015 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study, pollution was responsible for
approximately 9 million deaths (16% of all deaths worldwide) and economic losses
totaling US$4.6 billion (6.2% of global economic output) in 2015 (Landrigan et al., 2018).
The degradation of ecosystems, which presents unsuspected risks, frightens today's man
and raises fears of harmful consequences for the future generation (Hugon, 2005). Even if
this concern is a global concern, the fact remains that it is in developing countries that it is
most acute. Indeed, in these countries, environmental issues are joined by another no less
important one: that of population growth. The strong growth of the population which is

* **
Emal: mjfmabio@gmail.com; pnsiella@gmail.com
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 40

also linked to a market economy undoubtedly has repercussions on their socio-economic

situation which gradually deteriorates, because resources become more and more scarce.
To this effect, it results in a rural exodus in search of better living conditions, hence a lot
of agricultural lands, wetlands, forests and even deserts have been transformed into human
settlements over a period of time.
According to the UN report, the greatest population growth will occur in Africa, hence the
African population will practically double by 2050 from 1.3 billion today to 2.5 billion in
2050, to reach 4.2 billion by 2100. This will lead to numerous environmental problems
such as impossible sanitation following the birth of spontaneous neighborhoods,
insufficient drinking water for the entire population, sometimes impossible waste disposal,
and problems related to energy, etc. These above-mentioned problems not only affect the
environment but the health and lives of the population.

Nowadays, several international conferences have already been organized on the

environment from Stockhlom in 1972 to the COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh in 2022 (in Egypt)
via the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and COP21 in
Paris in 2015. Environmental degradation has gradually become a subject of great
concern, both for governments, international organizations and non-governmental
organizations. It seems appropriate to clarify that Gabon's current forest governance is
strongly influenced by the international context which calls upon States on the importance
of forests for climate change mitigation.During the 2015 Paris agreement on climate
change, REDDF (Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) is
one of the elements to which Gabon officially committed as part of its forest governance. .
Gabon is also committed to the NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions) within the
framework of the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which
includes land use and forestry objectives. The aim of signing these conventions is to
commit to preserving the environment but above all to limiting climate change on a global
scale. Likewise, point 13 of the Sustainable Development Goals or the United Nations
2030 Agenda was devoted to measures to fight against climate change.
Sustainable development emerged with the aim not only of protecting the environment,
but also of preserving future generations. This ethical and political imperative calls for
discernment of each act and gesture of human beings towards the biosphere. That is to say,
before acting, we must judge the present and future consequences of our action.
Sustainable development emphasizes that we all share planet earth as human beings, but
also that it belongs to future generations. This is what pushed the Jewish philosopher Hans
Jonas to establish the principle of responsibility which is stated in these terms: “Act in
such a way that the consequences of your action can preserve the pursuit of healthy life on
the planet”.
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 41

Environmental degradation is often the effect of a multiplicity of individual but generally

harmful actions. Understanding the factors that cause this degradation is a necessary
prerequisite for any environmental policy. Among the potential causes of environmental
degradation, industrialization has always been questioned by several studies (Chigbo et al.,
2016; Ali et al., 2021; Ahmed et al., 2022). Because, there is no doubt that
industrialization is necessary for economic growth, but at the same time, it is also the fact
that it has a detrimental impact on the quality of human life as well as the environment. It
has been studied that rapid industrial growth affects the entire bio-network and
components of a natural system such as air, water, soil and the surrounding ecosystem
(Magsi, 2014).
Work on the effect of industrialization on the environment has essentially captured the
industrialization variable by the added value of the manufacturing sector or by the added
value of the industrial sector. However, this approach has the limitation that it does not
make it possible to assess the contribution of each sub-sector of the manufacturing or
industrial sector to environmental degradation. And the overall recommendations made for
this sector cannot be valid for each sub-sector in the said sector. Although studies on the
environmental impact of a given sector of activity are important, analyzes specific to the
sub-sector which make up a given sector of activity, particularly the manufacturing sector,
make it possible to make specific and targeted recommendations.According to Morvan
(1985), a sub-sector represents all the processing stages from upstream to downstream to
obtain a family of products. The sub-sector brings together the stages of harvesting,
processing of raw materials, research, second processing, trading activities, then possibly a
third or fourth processing, then sales to culminate in distribution to the end customer.
With reference to the Gabonese Emerging Strategic Plan (GESP), the development of the
Green Gabon pillar involves the full development of the wealth of the soil, in particular its
forest heritage, which allows Gabon to claim an advantageous position in the green
economy of the 21st century. The development of this pillar aims to sustainably manage
the forest and position Gabon as a world leader in tropical timber. Before the ban in 2010
on the export of raw wood in Gabon, barely 20 to 30% of the felled trees were valued or
transformed in the territory, while this rate exceeds 60% in Asia and even reaches 80% in
major logging countries (ADB, 2016). Thus, Gabon's decision to prohibit the export of
logs in favor of domestic processing is therefore part of a context of acceleration of the
industrialization of the forest-timber sub-sector and consequently to have a diversified,
sustainable and competitive economy. It is for this reason that the State has strengthened
the capacities of the National Timber Company of Gabon (NTCG) with the establishment
of the special investment Zones (ZIS) of NKOK in full swing, that of Ikolo (Lambaréné),
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 42

Mpassa Lembombi (Franceville) and Mandji (Port-Gentil). However, this policy of local
processing of wood before export is not without consequences on the environment.
The timber industry is a very important natural resource exploitation industry in the world.
Trees are felled for various uses in most countries. Wood is increasingly in demand to
construct buildings, make furniture, for heating or simply to make paper. According to
FAO statistics (2018), nearly 4 billion m3 of wood have been harvested to satisfy global
needs. The demand for wood around the world continues to increase over time. Moreover,
projections from the organization “Living Forest Model” (published by the WWF in
2012), already predicted that if our planet continued to consume in 2030 in the same way
as we do today, the harvest of wood should exceed 7 billion m3.

Today, the irresponsible exploitation of forests has very serious social and environmental
consequences: these include the reduction of biodiversity, erosion, water pollution and
deforestation. The highest environmental impact comes from paper, particularly because
of the energy demand for its production. This is followed by domestic or industrial
heating, board manufacturing and tree cutting. If wood is used as a building material, the
carbon remains sequestered for the entire lifespan of the buildings. The production of
construction timber also releases significantly less CO2 than the production of other
materials. Furthermore, the transformation of materials such as concrete, bricks, glass or
steel requires more energy. The use of wood therefore makes it possible to avoid the
emission of large quantities of CO2. It is important to specify that the wood transformation
process generates fine particles which pollute the environment such as PM2.5 (these are
fine particles whose diameter is less than 2.5 µm).
Wood processing and manufacturing involves different types of machines and processes
such as sawing, drying, machining, assembling, gluing, finishing, etc. which can be linked
to environmental risks (Bluff 2014; Poisson and Chinniah 2016). The sawing process
involves debarking and cutting the logs into sections, which are then sawn into wooden
planks. Particulate matter in the environment comes from log debarking, sawing into
boards, wood residue and kiln drying, as these processing steps create environmental
hazards in the field. Likewise, heavy machinery is used throughout the process, impacting
soil, water and air quality.
The main sources of environmental impact are present throughout the wood supply chain,
from sawmills to finished products. Energy is mainly used for processing and handling of
materials, drying of raw materials and associated services such as boiler steam and
condensing system, space heating and lighting (Bergman et al., 2014). The main sources
of energy in sawmills are either electrical energy or thermal energy. Electrical energy
includes electricity supplied from the grid and is mainly used in the sawing process, while
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 43

thermal energy is generated by biomass and used mainly for drying sawn wood (Bergman
and Bowe, 2008). Energy sources and the way they are used contribute to the production
of greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts. The main environmental
impacts associated with wood products include air emissions and greenhouse gas
emissions (Van et al., 2017). This type of impact is called carbon footprint.
The forestry sector in general and the felling of trees through deforestation contribute to
17% of GHG emissions into the atmosphere (Miles and Kapos 2008; Baccini et al. 2012).
Other forms of environmental impact associated with wood products are due to the
transportation of wood products (Lindholm and Berg 2005), the use of chemicals and
wastage of wood (Jurgensen et al. 1997; Wootton 2012).
Empirically, some studies have analyzed the effect of resource consumption in sawmills
on environmental quality. It appears from these studies that energy consumption has led to
the release into the environment of a variety of gases (Eshun et al. 2010; Bergman and
Bowe 2012 and Tellnes et al. 2012). Eshun et al. (2010) pointed out that environmental
emissions vary from country to country and from sawmill to sawmill due to the diversity
of technologies, methods and environmental standards applied. Likewise, the study
ofRamasamy et al. (2015) on the environmental impact of the sawmilling industry
concluded that several gases such as CO2, CH4, NOx, N2O, SO2 and CO were released
into the environment and the impacts were taken the form of global warming,
acidification, human toxicity, eutrophication and photo-oxidant formation in Malaysia.
The common denominator in these studies is that they used the experimental approach.
This literature has two main limitations. The first highlights the absence of econometric
modeling of the environmental impact of the sawmilling industry. The second observation
reveals the partial nature of the results, because the wood sawing activity is far from
reflecting all of the activities in the forest-timber sub-sector (the wood industrysub-sector
is not limited only to sawing activity).
It is on the strength of the above that the objective of this article is to analyze the
environmental impact of the wood industry sector in the Congo Basin, more precisely in
Gabon. The choice of a country in the Congo Basin is explained by the fact that this area is
classified as the second largest rainforest on the planet behind the Amazon. Additionally,
it plays a vital role against global warming. The transformation process and transport
services for wood and its derived products require the consumption of electrical and
thermal energy which is not exempt from any criticism of environmental degradation. In
addition, the felling of trees results in deforestation, which reduces the capacity to absorb
greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic activities. Furthermore, the ban on exports
of wood logs from January 1, 2010 in Gabon led to a proliferation of processing structures
and consequently increased the share of exports of processed wood over time.
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 44

This study presents two main contributions. Among the studies that have analyzed the
relationship between industrialization and the environment, very few have focused on the
contribution of a manufacturing or industrial sub-sector to environmental quality.
Furthermore, the empirical literature used in this work reveals that the authors focused
exclusively on analyzing the environmental impact of sawmilling activity. Consequently,
this study is the first to analyze the environmental impact of the wood industry sub-sector.
Second, countries in Africa (notably Gabon) have responded to global calls for action on
climate change with laudable policy frameworks as well as other ancillary agreements and
pacts with measures to mitigate the impact of climate change (Appiah and Johnson, 2017).
Thus, understanding the explanatory factors of carbon emissions provides an empirical
basis for an effective fight against global warming. The rest of this work is structured
around three other sections. Section 2 describes the methodological approach. The
presentation of the results is established by section 3 and section 4 presents the conclusion.

2. Data and econometric specification

This section discusses the sample and the variables that will be used in the analysis. This is
followed by a more in-depth reasoning on the reasons for adding each variable in the
regression and on the source of the data. This section also provides rationales for the
estimation technique to be used.
2.1. Data
To empirically test the relationship between the timber industry and environmental
quality, we used time series data for Gabon during the period 1980 -2022.The dependent
variable of our model is environmental quality. It is measured in this work by CO2
emissions and fine particles PM2.5. These variables are commonly used in the literature
(Ramasamy et al., 2015; Nkemgha and Engone, 2022). As for the independent variable
(the wood industry sub-sector), it is measured in this work by three indicators: log
production, local wood processing and exports of transformed wood.These indicators
make it possible to capture most of the activities in the timber sector.To reduce the bias of
omitting variables, four control variables were introduced into the econometric model.
These are population, foreign trade, urbanization and gross domestic product per capita.
The relationship between control variables and environmental quality is described in the
following paragraph.
The relationship between economic growth and the environment has already been widely
explored in the literature. Indeed, the work of Majeed and Luni (2019) and Avom et al
(2020) confirmed the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve. Regarding trade, it
significantly degrades the quality of the environment, thus validating the pollution haven
hypothesis (Managi et al., 2009). As for the relationship between urbanization and the
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 45

environment, Li et al. (2019) found that urbanization has led to environmental

degradation. Finally, the population also contributes to environmental degradation
(LeGrand, 1998). The descriptive statistics and the correlation matrix between the
variables are summarized in Tables 1 and 2. Table 1 presents values which are high,
therefore we will consider the natural logarithm of each of them during our estimations.
Table 2 shows a positive correlation between the timber industry and environmental
quality.

Table 1 : Descriptive statistics

CO2 PM2.5 Logprod Processw Expw POP Trade Urban GDPPC
Moy 5564.2 97.6 1094260 406207.8 304637.5 2.75 87.46 77.35 7693.41
Median 5602 100 3169 163368.0 73968.00 2.69 86.99 79.63 7358
Max 6634 100. 4162444 1982658 1380093 3.55 119.85 90.73 9534
Min 4023 90. 1221 25345. 1176.000 2.02 70.06 54.68 6295.
Std Dev 684.02 4.2 1308314 454065.6 350803.1 0.36 11.01 10.57 956.21
Obs 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43

Table 2: Correlation matrix

CO2 PM2.5 Logprod Processw Expw POP Trade Urban GDPPC
CO2 1.00
PM2.5 -0.08 1.00
Logprod 0.07 0.26 1.00
Processw 0.03 0.40 0.52 1.00
Expw 0.006 0.44 0.47 0.98 1.00
POP 0.03 0.08 -0.44 -0.18 -0.02 1.00
Trade 0.3 -0.47 -0.35 -0.55 -0.58 0.07 1.00
Urban 0.002 0.82 0.44 0.73 0.79 0.14 -0.62 1.00
GDPPC 0.14 -0.57 -0.47 -0.67 -0.75 -0.29 0.64 -0.85 1.00

2.2. Econometric model

After having given a detailed description of the key variables of environmental quality, the
relationship between them is done through econometric modeling. The objective of this
work is to study the environmental impact of the timber industry in Gabon. Based on
recent literature on the determinants of environmental quality (Avom et al, 2020), the
following econometric model is given:
𝑘 𝑝
𝑌𝑡 = 𝛼 + 𝜆𝑌𝑡−1 + 𝑝=1 𝛽𝑝 𝑋𝑡 + 𝛾1 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑡 + 𝜀𝑡 (2)
Where 𝑌𝑡 represents the quality of the environment in period 𝑡, 𝑋 is the vector of control
variables, including population, foreign trade, urbanization and gross domestic product per
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 46

capita; 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑡 represents the wood industry in period 𝑡. 𝜀𝑡 is the error term and α,
the constant. The transformation of equation (1) into an error correction model is given by:

𝑘 𝑝
∆𝑌𝑡 = 𝜑(𝑌𝑡−1 − 𝜃0 − 𝑝=1 𝜃𝑝 𝑋𝑡−1 − 𝛿1𝑖 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑡−1 )
𝑘 𝑝
− 𝑝=1 𝛽𝑝 ∆𝑋𝑡 − 𝛾1 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑡 + 𝜀𝑡 (2)
𝛼 𝛽𝑝 𝛾1
With 𝜃0 = , 𝜃𝑝 = , 𝛿1𝑖 = ,𝜑 = −( 1 − 𝜆)
1−𝜆 1−𝜆 1−𝜆

Where 𝜃𝑝 and 𝛿1 measure the effect of long-term dynamics while 𝛽𝑝 and 𝛾1 capture the
short-term dynamics. Finally, 𝜑 represents the speed of adjustment towards long-term
equilibrium; this coefficient must be negative and significant in order to confirm the long-
term relationship between the wood industry and environmental quality.

Following Pesaran et al. (1999) and Jouini (2015), the Pooled Mean Group (PMG)
approach is used to estimate the dynamic model by considering the potential long-term
links between the variables. The PMG estimation approach differs from techniques, such
as Mean Group (MG) developed by Pesaran and Smith (1995), which estimate a
regression for each group and then calculate averages of the coefficients (Lee et al. 1996;
Evans , 1997). The long-term GM estimators are consistent, but they are inefficient in case
of homogeneity of the coefficients. Under these conditions, the PMG estimation approach
is useful because it provides consistent and efficient long-term estimators when parameter
homogeneity is respected. The PMG approach is preferable to the MG method because it
provides estimates that are less sensitive to outlier estimates. We address endogeneity
issues by augmenting the PMG estimator with lags of the repressors and dependent
variables to minimize the resulting bias and ensure that the regression residuals are not
serially correlated. Equation (2) is rewritten as follows:
𝑘 𝑝
∆𝑌𝑡 = 𝜑(𝑌𝑡−1 − 𝜃0 − 𝑝=1 𝜃𝑝 𝑋𝑡−1 − 𝛿1 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑡−1 )
𝑘 𝑝
− 𝑝=1 𝛽𝑝 ∆𝑋𝑡 − 𝛾1 − Δ𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑡−1 + 𝜀𝑡 (3)

3. Results and discussion

The results of this study will be presented in two stages. The first step highlights the
results of the preliminary tests while the second step interprets the results of the estimation
of our econometric model.

3.1. Preliminary tests

The results of the preliminary tests of this study revolve around three points. The first
sheds light on stationary tests. As for the second, it presents the results of the cointegration
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 47

test and the last point highlights the results relating to the optimal number of lags of the
model. Before starting the analysis of a time series, it is important to study its properties
(stationary or non-stationary). Indeed, the use of certain estimation methods is conditioned
by the nature of the variables in the model. To this end, we carried out the Dickey-Fuller
Augmented (DFA) and Phillips Peron (PP) stationary tests with constant and trend. The
results of the stationary tests are reported in Table 3. This table reveals that the population,
trade and urbanization variables are stationary at level, while the other variables in the
model are stationary at first difference.

Table 3 : Stationary test

DFA with constant and trend PP with constant and trend Decision
At level First difference At level First difference
CO2 0.0940 0.00 0.0940 0.00 I(1)
PM2.5 0.7575 0.00 0.7575 0.00 I(1)
Logprod 0.6133 0.00 0.6133 0.00 I(1)
Processw 0.999 0.00 0.999 0.00 I(1)
Expw 0.9872 0.00 0.9872 0.00 I(1)
POP 0.00 - 0.00 - I(0)
Trade 0.0434 - 0.0434 - I(0)
Urban 0.00 - 0.00 - I(0)
GDPPC 0.2241 0.00 0.2241 0.00 I(1)

Since the variables in the model are integrated at different levels, it is important to perform
the cointegration test in order to check whether there is a long-run relationship between
them. To do this, we carried out the Johansen cointegration test, the results of which are
shown in tables 4 and 5. These tables show that the trace test as well as that of the
maximum eigenvalue confirm that there exists a (or more) long-term relationship(s)
between the variables in the model.
Table 4: Results of the Johansen cointegration test for the CO2 model
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.879229 184.7288 125.6154 0.0000
At most 1 * 0.610263 98.06064 95.75366 0.0344
At most 2 0.438329 59.42701 69.81889 0.2534
At most 3 0.315105 35.77659 47.85613 0.4077
At most 4 0.285793 20.25853 29.79707 0.4055
At most 5 0.094228 6.458624 15.49471 0.6413
At most 6 0.056878 2.400936 3.841466 0.1213
Trace test indicates 2 cointegratingeqn(s) at the 0.05 level
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 48

Table 4 continued
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.879229 86.66819 46.23142 0.0000
At most 1 0.610263 38.63363 40.07757 0.0721
At most 2 0.438329 23.65041 33.87687 0.4813
At most 3 0.315105 15.51806 27.58434 0.7062
At most 4 0.285793 13.79990 21.13162 0.3817
At most 5 0.094228 4.057688 14.26460 0.8532
At most 6 0.056878 2.400936 3.841466 0.1213
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegratingeqn(s) at the 0.05 level

Table 5: Results of the Johansen cointegration test for the PM2.5 model.
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.648887 83.77978 69.81889 0.0026
At most 1 0.408129 40.86720 47.85613 0.1929
At most 2 0.216142 19.36407 29.79707 0.4670
At most 3 0.155069 9.379460 15.49471 0.3314
At most 4 0.058487 2.470935 3.841466 0.1160
Trace test indicates 1 cointegratingeqn(s) at the 0.05 level
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.648887 42.91258 33.87687 0.0032
At most 1 0.408129 21.50313 27.58434 0.2470
At most 2 0.216142 9.984610 21.13162 0.7461
At most 3 0.155069 6.908525 14.26460 0.5000
At most 4 0.058487 2.470935 3.841466 0.1160
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegratingeqn(s) at the 0.05 level

In the presence of cointegration, several parameter estimation methods are recommended,

such as FMOLS Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares), DOLS (Dynamic Least Squares)
and ARDL. Methods for estimating cointegration relationships such as FMOLS or DOLS
require all variables to be integrated to order one. To overcome this condition, Pesaran and
Shin (1999) demonstrated that cointegration systems can be estimated as autoregressive
and staggered lag (ARDL) models. Since the ARDL model is applied to a dynamic model,
it is important to find the optimal number of model lags. Tables 6 and 7 give the results of
the optimal number of model lags. These tables show that this number is equal to one for
all information criteria (LR, FPE, AIC, SC, HQ).
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 49

Table 6: Optimal number of lags for the CO2 model

Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ
0 -1023.532 NA 3.92e+18 51.32661 51.45328 51.37241
1 -955.1111 123.1581* 2.01e+17* 48.35555* 48.86222* 48.53875*
2 -950.7153 7.253049 2.56e+17 48.58576 49.47243 48.90635
3 -943.5090 10.80945 2.86e+17 48.67545 49.94211 49.13343

Table 7: Optimal number of lags for the PM2.5 model

Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ
0 -1035.142 NA 7.01e+18 51.90712 52.03379 51.95292
1 -962.9362 129.9714* 2.98e+17* 48.74681* 49.25347* 48.93000*
2 -958.4001 7.484462 3.76e+17 48.97001 49.85667 49.29060
3 -952.2964 9.155574 4.44e+17 49.11482 50.38148 49.57281

3.2. Main Results

The estimation of the environmental quality equation by the autoregressive and distributed
lags method robust to autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity of errors gives results which
are recorded in tables 8 and 9. It appears from these tables that the he wood industry
positively and significantly degrades the quality of the environment (CO2 and PM2.5) in
the long term. However, this relationship is not significant in the short run. Thus, an
increase of one unit in each indicator of the wood industry leads to an increase in CO2
emissions of 9.6%, 5.3% and 4.4% (Table 8) respectively for log production, local wood
processing and exports of processed wood. Likewise, an increase of one unit in each
indicator of the wood industry leads to an increase in PM2.5 emissions of 10.5%, 7.1%
and 5.5% (Table 9) respectively for log production, local wood processing and exports of
processed wood. This result can be explained by the fact that the activity of felling trees
leads to a reduction in carbon sinks (reduction in the CO2 absorption capacity of the plant
cover) and consequently leads to an increase in CO2 emissions in the air. In addition, the
activity of drying logs generates vapors from boilers which in turn pollute the
environment. Furthermore, the heating and lighting of premises and the energy used
(electrical energy, fossil energy or thermal energy) for felling, processing logs and drying
sawn wood are likely to pollute the environmentthrough emissions of CO2 or fine particles
such as PM2.5. This result is compatible with the work of Bergman et al. (2014) and
Ramasamy et al. (2015).
Regarding the control variables, foreign trade, urbanization and gross domestic product
per capita have positive and significant effects on environmental quality in both Table 8
and Table 9. Foreign trade significantly degrades the environmental quality. Thus, an
increase in foreign trade of one unit leads to an increase in emissions of 8.02% and 3.1%
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 50

respectively for CO2 and PM2.5 (column 1). This result is consistent with the work of
Managi et al. (2009) which validate the pollution haven hypothesis. In addition to foreign
trade, urbanization also degrades the environmentalquality. Thus, an increase of one unit
in urbanization generates an increase in CO2 and PM2.5 emissions of 0.4% and 0.3%
respectively (column 1). This result is consistent with the work of Avom et al (2020).
Finally, gross domestic product and gross domestic product squared significantly impact
environmental quality. Unlike the gross domestic product variable, the squared gross
domestic product variable exerts a negative and significant effect on the environment,
therefore, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the gross domestic product
per capita and the different pollutants (CO2 and PM2.5). This result allows us to validate
the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve.
Table 8: Effect of the timber industry on CO2 emissions in Gabon using the ARDL
method
Long run 1 2 3
Log (Logprod) 0.0961***
Log(Processw) 0.0532**
Log(Expw) 0.0442***
Log (pop) 0.1584 0.19 0.2316
Log(Trade) 0.0802** 0.0942*** 0.0865***
Log(Urbanisation) 0.0040* 0.0061** 0.0051**
Log(GDPPC) 1.4310** 1.2106** 1.7945**
Log(GDPPC2) -0.0003** -0.0005** -0.0004**
Cons 1.3586*** 2.0455*** 2.5172***
ECM -0.2308*** -0.3413*** -0.4610***
Short run Dynamic
DLog (Logprod) 0.0315
DLog(Processw) 0.0279
DLog(Expw) 0.0350
DLog (pop) 1.4261 1.3139 1.5133
DLog(Trade) 0.0321** 0.0421** 0.0534**
DLog(Urbanisation) 0.043 0.026 0.013
DLog(GDPPC) 0.4326 0.4060 0.3505
DLog(GDPPC2) -0.0091 -0.0087 -0.0078
Adjust R2 0.42 0.40 0.44
Breusch-Godfrey 0.72 0.27 0.36
Breusch -pagan-Godfrey 0.19 0.14 0.16
Remsey Reset 0.26 0.81 0.32
Wald test [prob(Chi2)] 0.00 0.00 0.00
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 51

Table 9: Effect of the wood industry on emissions of fine particles (PM2.5) in Gabon
using the ARDL method
Long run 1 2 3
Log (Logprod) 0.1054***
Log(Processw) 0.0714**
Log(Expw) 0.0055***
Log (pop) 0.2140 0.3254 0.4162
Log(Trade) 0.0314** 0.0231*** 0.0426***
Log(Urbanisation) 0.0031** 0.0043** 0.0046**
Log(GDPPC) 1.0411** 1.0105** 1.3150**
Log(GDPPC2) -0.0005** -0.0004** -0.0007**
Cons 2.2661*** 3.2356*** 3.4160***
ECM -0.3351*** -0.3678*** -0.4531***
Short runDynamic
DLog (Logprod) 0.0078
DLog(Processw) 0.0049
DLog(Expw) 0.0031
DLog (pop) 1.8715 1.9741 1.3831
DLog(Trade) 0.0451** 0.0671** 0.0432**
DLog(Urbanisation) 0.039 0.076 0.035
DLog(GDPPC) 0.3523 0.7490 0.4897
DLog(GDPPC2) -0.0089 -0.0097 -0.0048
Adjust R2 0.48 0.47 0.47
Breusch-Godfrey 0.52 0.51 0.49
Breusch -pagan-Godfrey 0.18 0.17 0.26
Remsey Reset 0.34 0.19 0.46
Wald test [prob(Chi2)] 0.00 0.00 0.00

To test the robustness of our results, we used the FMOLS and DOLS methods. The results
of these estimates are recorded in tables 10 and 11. The analysis of these tables reveals
that the wood industry significantly degrades the environmentalquality through emissions
of CO2 and fine particles (PM2.5). Furthermore, control variables such as trade,
urbanization and gross domestic product are also explanatory factors of environmental
degradation in Gabon. From the above, we can conclude that our results are robust.
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 52

Table 10: Effect of the timber industry on CO2 emissions in Gabon using the
FMOLS and DOLS methods

FMOLS DOLS
1 2 3 1 2 3
Log (Logprod) 0.0851*** 0.0843***
Log(Processw) 0.0671*** 0.0678***
Log(Expw) 0.0347** 0.0386**
Log (pop) 0.9335 0.7918 0.8962 0.9443 0.8218 0.9838
Log(Trade) 0.0612*** 0.068*** 0.072*** 0.081*** 0.075*** 0.093***
Log(Urbanisation) 0.0040* 0.0031* 0.0042* 0.0034** 0.008** 0.0041**
Log(GDPPC) 1.5392*** 1.6100*** 1.6707*** 1.5321*** 1.6120*** 1.6666***
Log(GDPPC2) -0.0015** -0.0014** -0.0017** -0.0015** -0.0014** -0.0017**
Cons 1.2423* 1.2180** 1.2957** 1.2957** 1.0649* 1.760***
Adjust R2 0.52 0.53 0.51 0.52 0.50 0.53

Table 11: Effect of the timber industry on PM2.5 emissions in Gabon using FMOLS
and DOLS methods
FMOLS DOLS
1 2 3 1 2 3
Log (Logprod) 0.0951*** 0.0763***
Log(Processw) 0.0421*** 0.0497***
Log(Expw) 0.0303** 0.0303**
Log (pop) 0.7342 0.8961 0.7941 0.7034 0.6853 0.8345
Log(Trade) 0.0734*** 0.0762*** 0.0639*** 0.0843** 0.0702*** 0.7275***
Log(Urbanisation) 0.0058* 0.0047* 0.0044* 0.0053** 0.0056** 0.0049**
Log(GDPPC) 1.0953** 1.0645*** 1.0481*** 1.0781*** 1.1574*** 1.0956***
Log(GDPPC2) -0.0009** -0.0008** -0.0009** -0.0008** -0.0009** -0.0007**
Cons 1.7680* 1.9834** 1.9987** 1.4679** 1.8940* 1.1736***
Adjust R2 0.58 0.59 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.57

4. Conclusion
Despite the abundant literature on the relationship between industrialization and
environmental quality, existing studies have not yet analyzed the environmental impact of
the timber industry. However, analysis of the timber industry sub-sector should make it
possible to measure its contribution to environmental degradation. It is through this idea
that we analyzed the environmental impact of the wood industry sub-sector in the Congo
Basin, more precisely in Gabon during the period 1980-2022. The use of the
Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method revealed that the wood industry sector
measured by log production, local wood processing and exports of processed wood
 Empirical Economics Letters, 22 (12): (December 2023) 53

significantly degrades environmental quality through emission of pollutants such as CO2

and PM2.5 into the atmosphere. Furthermore, the results also revealed the existence of the
environmental Kuznets curve between gross domestic product per capita and pollutants
(CO2 and PM2.5). Therefore, the change in behavior regarding energy consumption, the
promotion of renewable energies, the improvement of sawing practices, the appropriate
management of wood waste, and above all the use of drying techniques and sources of
Energy efficient and environmentally friendly methods (air drying, improved solar drying
and oven drying) will significantly reduce the level of pollution in the wood industry sub-
sector. To achieve this, Gabon should facilitate imports of renewable energies as well as
green materials. Furthermore, appropriate policy support is also needed to promote
integrated industrial sites with effective coordination and collaboration among relevant
stakeholders. This collaborative work not only makes it possible to produce quality wood,
but also to reduce the concomitant environmental impacts. In addition, it should contribute
to guaranteeing the general objective of environmental sustainability, while recognizing
that the wood industry sector is part of an integrated approach to sustainable development.
This work has two main limitations. The first highlights the fact that CO2 and PM2.5 are
far from reflecting all of the pollutants in the environment. The second highlights that our
results are limited to a single country and cannot be generalized to all the countries of the
Congo Basin. These limitations will be taken into account in future work.

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Table A: Definition of variables

Variables Symbols Definitions of variables (measures) Sources

Population POP Annual population growth rate. Population World Bank
is based on the de facto definition of
population, which counts all residents
regardless of legal status or citizenship.
Gross Domestic GDPPC Gross Domestic Product per capita in World Bank
Product Per current dollars
Capita
Urbanization Urban Percentage of population living in cities World Bank
Trade Trade Sum of imports and exports to GDP World Bank
Log production Log log production (thousands of m3) Ministry of
production Environment
and Forests
Local wood Processw Local wood processing (thousands of m3) / Ministry of
processing industrial production Environment
and Forests
Exports of Expw Exports of processed wood (billion m3) Ministry of
processed wood Environment
and Forests
CO2emissions CO2 CO2 emissions (inkt) World Bank
PM2.5emissions PM2.5 Air pollution from fine particles (PM2.5), World Bank
population exposed to levels above the
WHO reference value (% of total)