Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555

https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01753-y

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

A Monte Carlo simulation approach for the assessment of health risk

from NO−3 ‑N perturbation in groundwater
George Y. Afrifa1 · Theophilus Ansah‑Narh2 · Kwabina Ibrahim1 · Yvonne S. A. Loh1 · Patrick A. Sakyi1 ·
Larry Pax Chegbeleh1 · Sandow M. Yidana1

Received: 14 November 2022 / Accepted: 18 January 2023 / Published online: 21 March 2023
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023

Abstract
As a prerequisite towards sustainable management of an aquifer system, it is critical to reveal and quantify the relationship
between NO−3 –N and human health in order to delineate health-risk zones. The various sources of NO−3 –N in an environ-
ment as well as the interaction of natural and anthropogenic processes, present considerable obstacles when considering
a technique to estimate health risk. Another constraint on health risk estimation is choosing right technique. This research
applied deterministic and MC approaches coupled with finite mixture model to evaluate the sources and concentrations
of NO−3 –N in groundwater, and appraise the hazard risks associated with various exposure groups in the Densu Basin in
Southern Ghana. The Monte Carlo approach was applied to the data with due cognizance of the various identified sources
of NO−3 –N, and a hypothetical single source (HSS). The results suggest that the probability of risk for identified NO−3 –N
sources (human-induced) fall within the ranges of 0.16-−0.39, 0.15-−0.30, and 0.12-−0.24 respectively for infants, children,
and adults. The MC technique applied to the HSS concentration recorded a relatively low probability of risk, presenting
0.07-−0.17, 0.02-−0.05, and 0.01-−0.04 for infants, children, and adults respectively. It, therefore, goes without saying that
the health hazard caused by the human-induced sources of NO−3 –N on exposure groups is comparatively higher than the
single sources. The MC simulation based on identified NO−3 –N sources appears to have performed better compared to the
HSS and the deterministic approach.

Keywords Monte Carlo simulation · Anthropogenic activities · Groundwater nitrate · Health risk assessment ·
Non-carcinogenic · Densu Basin

Introduction the hydrological system (through industrial, municipal, and

Naturally, groundwater is fresher and more unperturbed to
drink without prior treatment than surface water because
the topsoil serves as an environmental filter for discarding
undesirable particles (both solid and gaseous) from air and
water (Singer and Sojka 2002; Parr et al 1992), hence, mak-
ing groundwater free of microorganisms. However, ground-
water can become contaminated through naturally occur-
ring processes (e.g., geogenic, natural disasters, climate
change, soil/matrix) and/or anthropogenic activities with
* Yvonne S. A. Loh
sloh@ug.edu.gh
1
Department of Earth Science, University of Ghana, Legon,
P.O. Box LG 25, Accra, Ghana
2
Ghana Space Science and Technology Institute, Ghana
Atomic Energy Commission, P. O. Box LG 80, Accra, Ghana
agricultural practices). The effect of this problem can have a
significant impact on human health, as well as the ecosystem
(Li et al 2021).
In Ghana, the Densu river basin has been cited as one of
the catchments with variable pollution sources (Commis-
sion et al 2007). Earlier studies (Attua et al 2014; Amoako
et al 2011; Abass et al 2010; Fianko et al 2010; Tay and
Kortatsi 2008) have reported high NO−3 –N concentrations of
groundwater in certain parts of the basin and attributed this
to different sources. For instance, Tay and Kortatsi (2008)
reported that NO−3 –N concentration in some parts of the
basin falls between the interval (0.1, 106) mg/L and traced
the concentration level to mainly the use of ammonia and
compost in the farming communities. Amoako et al (2011)
also recorded groundwater NO−3 –N as high as 34 mg/L and
ascribed it to the use of fertilizers. These high levels of
NO−3 –N concentration in groundwater of the Densu basin

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are of grave concern as several studies have linked long-
term exposure of NO−3 –N to various human diseases such as
methemoglobinemia1 (also known as a blue baby syndrome)
(Gao et al 2020; Maghanga et al 2013; Gulis et al 2002),
gastric cancer (Majumdar and Gupta 2000; Rademacher
et al 1992), thyroid disorder diabetes (Fabro et al 2015; Wu
et al 2017; Hord 2011), and spontaneous abortions (Almasri
2007; Dan-Hassan et al 2012).
Due to the human health risk associated with the con-
sumption of groundwater with high NO−3 –N concentration,
international bodies such as the US Environmental Protec-
tion Agency (USEPA), Global Environment Monitoring Sys-
tem Database, and World Health Organization have set out a
contaminant level of 10 mg∕L (Cotruvo 2017; Shamsuddin
et al 2016; He et al 2011). These agencies have also outlined
environmental health hazards that are caused by deleterious
elements like NO−3 –N. So far, research on human health risks
in the Densu basin (Fianko et al 2011) has solely focused on
a deterministic approach where the outcome of an event is
directly computed from a fixed model. Meanwhile, in deter-
ministic models, it is impractical to model different combi-
nations of values for different inputs to observe the effects of
different cases. There is also the possibility to overestimate
or underestimate the potential risk since the model does not
quantify the likelihood of each outcome. Recent studies by
Mukherjee et al (2019, 2020) in risk assessments indicate
that using deterministic techniques to perform sensitivity
analysis, becomes difficult to determine which factors have
the greatest influence on the result. To overcome these draw-
backs and account for the potential risk, we adopt the Monte
Carlo method in this work. During the Monte Carlo simula-
tion process, a random sequence of events is drawn from
an appropriate probability distribution of a given variable.
The results are gathered and analysed statistically in order
to arrive at a probability distribution of the potential out-
comes of the work and to estimate the various risk measures.
The technique has been applied in numerous types of risk
analysis such as investment appraisal (Platon and Constan-
tinescu 2014; Hacura et al 2001), seismic hazard assessment
(Musson 2000), and even human health risk assessment (Liu
et al 2022; Yang et al 2022; Jiang et al 2021; Ramesh et al
2021; Kaur et al 2020; Mukherjee et al 2019). The previous
works on health risk assessment considered the probabil-
ity distribution of groundwater pollution to be symmetric
which means the contamination is coming from a common
source. The situation is however not the same when the con-
tamination is coming from heterogeneous sources which is
exactly what we are investigating in this research. In this
case, the input parameters for the Monte Carlo simulation
1
This disease is the result of a reduction in the capacity of blood to
transmit oxygen in nurslings who are mostly under 6 months of age.
13
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555
are expected to change in order to capture the intrinsic
behaviour of the contamination.
As a prerequisite towards sustainable management of an
aquifer system, it is critical to reveal and quantify the rela-
tionship between NO−3 –N and human health, and for delin-
eating health-risk zones, especially in rapidly developing
areas like the Densu Basin. The Monte Carlo simulation
technique will be employed in this study to examine the
risk levels for infants, children, and adults while taking into
account the following scenarios:
i. consider a deterministic approach for measuring the
health risk;
ii. assume that the observed NO−3 –N data distribution is
symmetric (thus, originating from a hypothetical single
source) and then evaluate the risk level using different
confidence intervals (CI) (for 1𝜎 , 2𝜎 and 3𝜎),
iii. take into account that the NO−3 –N dataset is multi-
modal and also estimate the risk level on the same
confidence intervals as in (ii).
iv. perform a comparative analysis of these schemes.
To achieve the scenario listed in (iii), we propose an unsu-
pervised algorithm to learn the finite mixture component in
the NO−3 –N dataset. This technique is capable of selecting
the components as well as the relevant input parameters nec-
essary for the Monte Carlo simulation. The findings of this
study would serve as a repository of NO−3 –N information,
that can be counted on to manage the aquifer sustainably.
Study area
Location and climate
The Densu River Basin is located in the southern part of
Ghana, between latitude 5◦ 30′–6◦ 20′ N and longitude 0◦ 10′
–0◦ 35′ W (refer to Fig. 1). Details of the morphology of the
basin have been copiously captured by Kusimi et al (2008);
Amoako et al (2011); Commission et al (2007). The North-
ern part of the basin is found within the Eastern Region of
Ghana which covers about 72%. Additionally, 5% falls within
the Central Region whiles the remaining 23% falls within the
Greater Accra Region (Nyamekye et al 2016). The Densu
River Basin is characterized by a bi-modal climatic and
rainfall regime. The upper part of the basin is described by
the wet semi-equatorial climate, while the dry equatorial
climate is experienced in the south-eastern portion of the
basin (Dickson et al 1988; Tay and Kortatsi 2008). Details
of the climatic conditions in the basin are well documented
(Commission et al 2007; Amoako et al 2011; Nyamekye et al
2016; Abass et al 2010).
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555 4541

.00000
760000.000000 770000.000000 780000.000000 790000.000000 800000.000000 810000.000000 820000.000000 830000.000000 840000.000000

700000
B
A

Ü
ills

Vo
.000000

.000000
aH
Ate Basin

lta
690000

690000
wa

Ba
si
EAST AKIM
im

n
.000000

.000000
Bir
680000

680000
NEW JUABEN
.000000

.000000
SUHUM
670000

670000
.000000

.000000
AKWAPEM NORTH
660000

660000
Legend
AYENSUANO
AKWAPEM SOUTH Sampling location
Ayensu Basin
.000000

.000000
Burkina Faso
C

Republic of Benin
Rivers
650000

650000
Geology
NSAWAM ADOAGYIRI
.000000

.000000
UPPER WEST AKIM Dyke (Mesozoic)
640000

640000
in
Accraian Group

Republic of Togo
Bas

GA WEST
.000000

.000000
Voltaian Supergroup
Okradu Basin

Cote D'Voire
630000

630000
aw

Togo Structural Unit

Od

GA SOUTH
Eburnean Plutonic Suite
.000000

.000000
AWUTU SENYA WEST GA CENTRAL
620000

620000
'Tamnean' Plutonic Suite

Tarkwaian Group
.000000

.000000
610000

610000
Birimian Supergroup
0 5 10 20 km Faults/lineaments Gulf of Guinea
760000 770000 780000 790000 800000 810000 820000 830000 840000
.000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000

Fig. 1  A geological map of the catchment area showing the sampling points

Land use the Birimain Supergroup. At the southern tip of the study
area outcrops the sedimentary rocks of the Accraian (Fig. 1).
The area is noted for the cultivation of both cash and food Tamnean Plutonic Suite covers about 70% of the catchment
crops. Maize, cassava, yam, plantain, banana, and cocoyam with the other seven lithologies occupying 30% of the catch-
are examples of food crops produced in the area. Other ment area. The granite complex is composed of a sequence
cash crops cultivated in the area include oil palm, pine- of granitic to quartz-diorite gneisses. The gneissic rocks are
apple, cocoa, papaya, mango, and orange (Amoako et al interrupted by both acidic and basic igneous rocks, which
2011), vegetable farming also takes place along the Densu include white and pink pegmatite, aplites, granodiorite and
River banks (Afful et al 2010). One of the fastest-growing dykes (Abass et al 2010). The dykes trend southwest to the
activities is the building of housing units, animal farming, northeast of the basin within the Tamnean Plutonic Suite.
sand winning, and salt mining. These ongoing events have The granite composite is made up of a group of assorted
severely exhausted the vegetative shelter of the basin, lead- rocks deposited in the north-western part of the Akwapim
ing to serious implications of flooding, excessive evapora- North and portions of Akwapim South Districts (Amoako
tion, soil erosion, and siltation of the river channel. et al 2011). The bulk of the granite is characterized by mus-
covite quartz, albite and orthoclase. The texture of the gran-
Geology and hydrogeology ite ranges from well-sorted to moderate-grained, with strati-
fied biotite quartz diorite gneiss to hornblende-quartz diorite
The catchment is underlain primarily by the Birimian Super- gneiss (Adomako et al 2011). Rocks of the Birimian meta-
group, however, its northwestern, northeastern, and south- sediments underlie the north-western parts of the landscape
eastern boundaries are occupied by the Tarkwaian Super- (Junner 1940; Yidana et al 2018). They are predominantly
group, Voltaian Supergroup, and the Togo Structural Unit of chemical sediments, greywackes, phyllites, argillites,
respectively (Fig. 1). The Birimian Supergroup includes the dacitic volcaniclastics intercalated with metamorphosed tuff,
Tamnean Plutonic Suite, Birimian metasedimentary rocks, and lava. The lavas are principally composed of tholeiitic
Eburnean and Plutonic Suite. Mafic dyke swarms cut across basalts with inserted volcaniclastics, pyroclastic lavas, and

13
4542
hypabyssal basic thrusting inward. Eburnean plutonic suite
also comprises undifferentiated granitoids such as granites,
granodiorites and gneiss. The Tarkwaian Supergroup is a
Proterozoic supracrustal system overlying the Birimian. It
trends in the north-western part of the basin and is made up
of mainly sandstones, conglomerates, argillites, arkoses, and
detrital sediment. The Togo Structural Unit (also known as
the Akwapim-Togo Range) is located in the south-eastern
parts. It is a highly pleated and interconnected geological
material. Marbles, sandstones, quartz schists, quartzites,
shales, phyllites, and some talc mica schists are predomi-
nant in the Togo Structural Unit (Amoako et al 2011; Yidana
et al 2018). The Votaian Supergroup covers about 4% of the
total land mass of the basin and trends from the southwest
through the west to northwest of the basin. It is underlain by
basal sandstones consisting mainly of quartz-sandstone, peb-
bly grits, shale, mudstone, siltstone, sandstone, arkose, and
conglomerate (Dapaah-Siakwan and Gyau-Boakye 2000).
The Accraian rocks are made up of quartz grits gently folded
sandstones, shales and mudstones. It occurs along the coast-
line within the southeastern part of Ghana. The various rock
types in the basin lack primary porosities and permeabilities.
This means it has very minute pore spaces existing between
the grains of the rocks and is dominated by little or no prin-
cipal porosity and permeability. Thus, the original porosity
is less and groundwater occurrence is a result of second-
ary porosities. These porosities are caused by weathering,
fracturing, jointing and faulting, which creates access for
groundwater flow, accumulation, and storage. The granitic
rock which covers the largest part of the basin is the least
fractured and weathered. Additionally, a large portion of the
gneisses is characterised by low to moderate groundwater
occurrence though the northern portions of the granitic area
have relatively productive aquifer zones (Commission et al
2007). The Togo Structural Unit to the southeast of the basin
is characterised by extremely pleated, interconnected, and
fissured rocks. The contact zone between the Togo Struc-
tural Unit and the granitic rocks in the Tamnean plutonic
suite offers good conditions for groundwater build-up in the
aquifer system in addition to the existence of springs. The
Birimian metavolcanic formation located in the far-flung
northwest of the basin is largely deep-weathered, pleated,
and fractured. Therefore the occurrence of groundwater in
the area underlain by the Birimian rocks is rated high in
terms of yield. The secondary porosity is found to be the
major conduit leading to the accumulation of groundwater
in the basin. Two different aquifer types exist in the Basin,
notably the weathered zone aquifers and the fractured zone
aquifers. The former is mostly observed at the base of the
weathered layer. The type of rocks and climatic conditions
are factors that significantly determine the thickness of the
weathered zones. Groundwater occurs in a fractured zone
where the weathered zone in the basin is thin. This supports
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Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555
the suggestion that aquifer units may be uninterrupted or
disjointed, depending on the predominant geological for-
mation in the area (Ganyaglo et al 2012). The groundwater
occurrence in the fractured zone aquifers within the basin
is largely controlled by the amount of splintering and the
nature of groundwater accumulation (Commission et al
2007). Consequently, the aquifer materials do not exhibit
constant homogeneous physical characteristics. Examination
of borehole data in the geological terrain of the Tamnean
Plutonic suite, Birimian Supergroup, and Togo Structural
Unit (see Fig. 1) suggests many variations in the borehole
depth in the ranges [9.1-−103.0, 23.0-−40.0, 28.0-−97.0] m,
weathered zone thickness ranges from [1 –32, 5–27, 3–36]
m, respectively. Static water level for various formations in
the basin range [0.1-−13.5, 0.8-−16.9, 1.1-−17.8] m, and
borehole yield [0.1–30, 0.7-−9.0, 0.6-−6.0] m (Commission
et al 2007; Yidana et al 2018)
Methods and material
Data acquisition
Water samples were collected from boreholes and hand-dug
wells in the catchment which is mainly for domestic use. A
total of 95 groundwater samples were collected during the
dry season (in January 2020). At each sample site, purging
was done for about two minutes by flushing the stall water
out. This was to ensure that the water sampled accurately
represented the status of the community groundwater. The
samples collected were filtered through 0.45 mm pore space
filter paper into a pre-cleaned 500 mL polythene bottle and
kept under a temperature below 4 ◦C. It was then transferred
to the Ecological Laboratory of the University of Ghana,
Legon2 for analysis—using the hydro-chemical standard
guidelines proposed by Tomovska et al (2016). The con-
centration of NO−3 –N was measured using a spectroquant
Pharo 300 spectrophotometer.
Health risk assessment and characterization
Exposure to polluted water through ingestion and dermal
contact can pose a severe hazard to human life (USEPA
2001). Due to this, a holistic model for human health haz-
ard valuation was offered by the United States Environmen-
tal Protection Agency (USEPA) (USEPA 2001). Zhai et al
(2017) describe it as a “kind of valuation process that links
the risk of water resource pollution with human health to
determine the extent of risk of the human body in the envi-
rons of contaminated water. This is done through diverse
2
http://​iess.​ug.​edu.​gh/​proje​cts/​insti​tutio​nal/​enreca-​ecolab-​proje​ct.
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555 4543

Table 1  Input parameters of the Parameters Adults Children Infants Unit References
risk model
Exposure frequency (EF) 365 365 365 days Mohammadi et al (2017)
Exposure duration (ED) 30 12 180 (days) years
Ingestion rate (IR) 3.4 1.6 1.034 L/day Egbi et al (2020)
Average exposure (AT) 10950 4830 182.5 days (Egbi et al 2020)
Average body weight (BW) 64.34 30.02 4.85 kg (Egbi et al 2020)
Oral reference dose for NO−3 –N 1.6 1.6 1.6 mg/kg/day
NO−3 –N concentration (C) C C C mg/L NA

exposure pathways, so as to come up with conforming rec-
ommendations and control measures for the health of the
human body”. It consists of measuring the magnitude of the
health effect of human contact with chemical species (con-
taminants) in water. This model has gained prominence in
its practicability and usage around the world (Li et al 2015;
Wu et al 2012; Wu and Sun 2016; Chen et al 2017; Zhai et al
2017). Four phases are recognized in the assessment, namely
risk identification, amount-response assessment, exposure
assessment, and hazard classification (Anornu et al 2017;
Akber et al 2020).
In the first phase, NO−3 –N in drinking groundwater was
identified for the risk assessment due to its prevalence in
the basin. Reconnaissance appraisal from preceding research
work identified substantial loading of NO−3 –N in certain
parts of the study area (Tay and Kortatsi 2008; Amoako et al
2011; Yidana et al 2018). Additionally, high NO−3 –N con-
sumption has also been thought to have long-term chronic
effects in humans, especially babies (Yu et al 2020).
The second and third phases of risk assessment, amount-
response and exposure assessment, are based on estimat-
ing the health risk by taking into account its frequency and
the magnitude of the exposure. This assessment takes into
consideration the exposure conduit, which is the point of
access for the contaminant into the body. Previous studies
have shown that ingestion and skin contact is the primary
exposure pathway to NO−3 –N health hazards, with consump-
tion being two to three times greater than skin contact (Wu
and Sun 2016; Li et al 2015; Anornu et al 2017). For this
reason and due to the paucity of data for skin contact, the
current investigation only focused on the hazard caused by
ingestion for adults (above 18 years), children (1–17 years)
and babies (3–6 months) in the study area.
The exposure dose through oral ingestion was calculated
using Eq. (1) (USEPA 2001)
C × IR × EF × ED
CDI = , (1)
BW × AT
where CDI is the chronic dose intake from absorption in
drinking water (mg/kg/day); C is the NO3−–N concentration
in drinking groundwater (mg/L); IR is the water ingestion
rate (L/day); EF is the exposure frequency (days/year); ED
is the exposure duration (year); BW is the body weight (kg);
AT is the average exposure time (days).
The expected values of IR, EF, ED, AT and BW pre-
sented in Table 1. Average body weights (BW) for children
(30.02 ± 20.49 kg), adults (64.36 ± 17 kg) and infants (4.85
± 0.93 kg ) were also obtained from a survey done by Egbi
et al (2020) in the Lower Volta Basin of Ghana. These values
were adopted for this study considering the fact that both
geographical locations are in the southern part of Ghana.
The corresponding average ingestion water rates from the
same survey (Egbi et al 2020) were 1.6 ± 0.4 L/day and
3.4 ± 1.0 L/day for children and adults respectively. This
is consistent with ingestion rate values (1.7 and 3.3 L/day
respectively) obtained by Craig et al (2015) in the Northern
part of Ghana, which indicates that regardless of the setting,
the average daily water consumption in Ghana has less vari-
ation and may be attributed to relatively homogeneous influ-
ences such as meteorological conditions and frequency of
activities. For infants, the average ingestion rate of 1034 ml/
day was adopted based on recommended ingestion rate for
infants (including feeding) from USEPA (2001).
The concluding phase of the hazard evaluation of ground-
water contamination is risk characterization, which assesses
the possibility of negative health effects in people exposed
to a specific contaminant (Zhai et al 2017). At this stage,
the nature and occurrence or absence of danger are based
on discussions in relation to assumptions, uncertainties and
limitations. It discusses the extent to which these conclu-
sions are supported by data (USEPA).3 Non-carcinogenic
hazard risk characterization is estimated by the Hazard Quo-
tient (HQ) (Eq. 2).
CDI
HQnitrate = , (2)
RfD
where RfD is the reference dose for non-carcinogenic haz-
ard classification, which is 1.6 mg∕kg∕day for NO−3 –N. An
estimated HQ value of < 1 means there are no negative
3
https://​www.​epa.​gov/​envir​onmen​tal-​topics/​land-​waste-​and-​clean​up-​
topics.

13
4544
Fig. 2  Conceptual model of the
Monte Carlo simulation
non-carcinogenic characteristics present; by contrast, a nega-
tive non-carcinogenic risk is expected when HQ value is > 1.
Finite mixture model
A finite mixture model is a statistical framework that
presupposes the existence of latent classes (unobserved
groups) within a larger population. It is possible to fit a
function for each latent class identified. A popular finite
mixture strategy for clustering data produced by multi-
modal distributions is the Gaussian mixture model
(GMM). For the purpose of this study, we employed the
GMM model due to possible variations in the NO−3 –N
dataset. The GMM can compare parameter estimates
between classes for a particular model. It can also fore-
cast the probabilities that the observations in our sample
belong to each latent class as well as the percentage of the
population that belongs to each latent class.
The GMM presented in Eq. (3) is a parametric probability
density function defined as the weighted sum of Gaussian—
each recognized by j ∈ 1, 2, … , C , where C is the number
of sub-populations in the dataset.
C
∑
p(x|𝚯) = 𝜔j ℵ(x|𝜇j , 𝜎j ), (3)
j=1
here, x denotes the NO−3 –N concentration in D-dimension,
𝚯 = (𝜔1 , 𝜇1 , 𝜎1 ;𝜔2 , 𝜇2 , 𝜎2 ; … ;𝜔C , 𝜇C , 𝜎C )T assembles all the
hidden parameters, 𝜔j represents the mixture kernels such
∑C
that j=1 𝜔j = 1, and ℵ(x|𝜇j , 𝜎j ) are the mixture components
of Gaussian densities defined as,
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Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555
[ ]
1 1
ℵ(x|𝜇j , 𝜎j ) = √ exp − (zi − 𝝁𝜆 )T 𝜎j−1 (zi − 𝝁j )
2 (4)
|2𝜋𝜎j |
The following stages, using some initial Gaussian distribu-
tions, can be used to maximize the probability distribution
mentioned above for all points in the entire data set under
the premise of finite Gaussian distributions:
i. Find the Gaussian probability that is most likely to
generate each point from ℵ(x|𝜇j , 𝜎j ). Here, the simi-
larity for each component in the data is measured by
Eq. (4).
ii. Estimate the parameters (𝜇j , 𝜎j ), for each 1 < 𝜆 < Λ ,
using the data points for each cluster.
Since the GMM is nonlinear, it should be noted that the
Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method cannot be
computed directly. In order to estimate the model parameters
in Step ii above for this work, the Expectation–Maximization
(EM) approach described in Vu et al (2019) was employed.
Monte Carlo simulation
Conventionally, risk assessment outcomes are expressed as
point estimates, leading to a high level of uncertainty (Dinis
and Fiúza 2010). However, the most precise way to perform
risk analysis is to use the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS).
The technique employs a stochastic approach to draw sam-
ples from a probability distribution and use them to estimate
the characteristics. In our case, we adopted the MCS method
depicted in Fig. 2 to assess the health risk in this work.
The following algorithms describe the concept presented
in Fig. 2:
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555 4545

Table 2  Deterministic values of principal statistical parameters of

NO−3 –N concentration, HQinfants, HQchildren , and HQadults
Statistical NO−3 –N (mg/L) HQinfants HQchildren HQadults
parameters

Count 95.0 95.0 95.00 95.00

Mean 6.30 0.86 0.220 0.210
std 5.90 0.81 0.200 0.190
Mini 0.02 0.003 0.0009 0.0008
25% 1.40 0.20 0.051 0.049
50% 4.30 0.59 0.051 0.140
75% 8.90 1.22 0.313 0.299
Max 25.70 3.43 0.882 0.841

i. Identifying multi-modal distributions in the NO−3 –N
concentration.
ii. Generating random values (1000) from each modal
distribution in step i. Here, the random samples for
the two clusters are computed as the probability of
observing DNBL , if DNBL came from the NBL compo-
nent:
Fig. 3  Violin plot showing the respective distributions of the NO−3 –N
data set. The white dot in the violin plots represents the median. The
broad black line in the interior denotes the inter-quartile range and the
thin black bar represents the rest of the distribution. On each side of
the grey line is a kernel density estimation to show the spectra distri-
bution of the data. The wider section of the plot represents the higher
population density, conversely, the skinnier sections represent a lower
probability

P(DNBL |CNBL ) = N(𝜇CNBL , 𝜎C2 ) (5) observed standard deviation of 5.9 mg∕L depicts some vari-
NBL

ation in the NO−3 –N data set.

also, the probability of observing DHI , if DHI came
from the human-induced component:
P(DHI |CHI ) = N(𝜇CHI , 𝜎C2 )
(6)
HI
additionally, the probability of observing DHS , if DHS
came from the hypothetical single source:
P(DHS |CHS ) = N(𝜇CHS , 𝜎C2 )
HS
(7)
Note that these generated random samples are consid-
ered to mimic the values of the NO−3 –N concentration
for each cluster and the hypothetical single cluster.
iii. Using the random samples for the two clusters and the
assumed single source in step ii the respective HQs
were computed.
iv. All the values of HQ > 1 in step iii were counted and
divided by the sampling size to estimate the probabil-
ity risk for actual (both natural and human-induced)
as well as hypothetical single source concentration.
Results and discussion
Morphology and sources of the NO−3 –N
Table 2 shows that NO−3 –N concentration varies between
[0.01, 25.7] mg/L, while the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles
were estimated as 1.4, 4.3 and 8.9 mg∕L , respectively. The
This is confirmed by the violin plot in Fig. 3 which syner-
gistically blends the box plot and the density trace (smoothed
histogram) into a single display that exposes the morphology
making up the NO−3 –N data set. The plot shows that there
is more than one sub-population in the distribution, sug-
gesting significant lateral disparity in groundwater NO−3 –N
loading in the area. This variation could be attributed to the
underlying geology, periodic precipitation pattern, ground-
water recharge rate and evapotranspiration process. Other
natural factors that may account for the spatial differences
in NO−3 –N contamination may include the soil type, soil
grain size, soil water holding ability, rainfall intensity, well
depth, aquifer physical properties, etc. (Shalev et al 2015;
Buvaneshwari et al 2017; Minet et al 2017; Nakagawa et al
2017; Re et al 2017; Ahada and Suthar 2018). That not-
withstanding, anthropogenic activities due to industrializa-
tion and unregulated fertilizer application can also play a
major role in this variation since most parts of the basin
are noted for the production of cash and food crops. The
indiscriminate disposal of solid and liquid waste in the area
is another issue. It is therefore instructive to suggest that the
NO−3 –N concentration in the study area may be coming from
multiple sources. A critical observation of the violin plot
(3) shows that the first modulation with a wider section of
the plot represents a higher population density, suggesting a
higher likelihood that a selected member will fall within this
range of values. It is also the distribution with a relatively
lower concentration compared to the WHO permissible limit

13
4546
Fig. 4  A histogram distribution superimposed on a Gaussian mixture
model of the NO−3 –N dataset. The red curved line shows the best-
fit Gaussian mixture model. The green curved dash line shows the
first cluster in the mixture model identified as NBL and the yellow
curved dash line also depicts the second cluster of the mixture model
described as human induce (HI) sources
(10 mg/L) for drinking water (Marmolejo-Ramos and Tian
2010). Conversely, the skinnier section of the plot represents
a lower probability and is also associated with a cluster of
high concentration. The violin plot has the ability to identify
sub-clusters in a dataset, but distinguishing them becomes
a graphical task.
For this work, we adopt a finite GMM probability distri-
bution to fit the NO−3 –N concentration to fortify the limita-
tions of the violin plot. The robustness of the GMM lies in
its capacity to cluster and estimate each segregated param-
eter (Psutka 2015; Reynolds 2009; Madenova and Madani
2021) which is exactly what has been demonstrated in Fig. 4.
The expected value of the first component in the plot is esti-
mated at 1.7 ± 1.3 mg/L. The low concentration value in this
component was considered as the natural background and
we suspect that this is due to atmospheric deposition and
organic materials in the aquifer system. This component
forms about 54% of the groundwater samples collected in
the area, hence, suggesting a fairly good status for domestic
use. The second component estimated at 8.32 ± 3.13 mg/L,
originates from human-induced (HI) activities such as indus-
trial, domestic-oriented, and agricultural activities. Using
different thresholds in terms of 68%, 95% and 99% confi-
dence intervals for the estimated values, we simulate the
range of possible outcomes to aid in decision-making. Here,
the Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the expected
risk of NO−3 –N exposure in human health.
In the catchment area, the population mostly belonging
to the low-income class, especially from the middle to the
northern part of the study area (mostly rural or semi-urban
areas) (Fig. 5), are unable to afford mineral water (packaged
water) from the market and as a result, rely on groundwater
13
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555
Fig. 5  Spatial demarcation of NO−3 –N in groundwater in the study
area. The red legend represents the concentration above the permis-
sible limit (10 mg/L)
for consumption and domestic needs. The USEPA health
hazard evaluation model was adapted to estimate the non-
carcinogenic effects on infants (< 1 year), children (1–18
years), and adults (> 18 years) who consume groundwa-
ter as their daily source of drinking water. The health risk
assessments of different age groups were performed using
the deterministic approach based on the parameters above,
with the most significant parameters being NO−3 –N, body
weight (BW) and ingestion rate (IR) considering the oral
ingestion. It was assumed that groundwater consumers did
not travel out of their location within the study area and that
they consumed the groundwater all year round so 365 days/
year was considered as the exposure frequency. Additionally,
using such exposure frequency will help compute the worst-
case scenario risk (Opoku et al 2020).
Deterministic assessment of HQ
Table 2 presents the range of values for the determinis-
tic approach of assessing non-carcinogenic health risks.
­HQinfants of the NO−3 –N ranges from [0.003, 3.42] with
a mean of 0.85. The values of ­HQchildren also vary from
[0.0009, 0.88] with an associated average of 0.22. A range of
[0.0008, 0.84] with a mean of 0.21 was obtained for H
­ Qadults.
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555 4547

for this study. About thirty-seven percent ( 37.2%) of the

infant population are at medium risk within the range of
[1, 4], 46% are at low risk within the range of [0.1, 1] and
16.8% are at negligible risk (< 0.1). This reveals that there is
a non-carcinogenic hazard for NO−3 –N associated with oral
ingestion exposure for infants in some parts of the basin.
Current and previous studies have shown that high NO−3 –N
is intensely correlated with various chronic diseases.
For children and adults, 38.9% and 38.5% of the samples
were below the classification, having negligible non-carci-
nogenic risk. 61% and 61.5% of the samples were found in
the low non-carcinogenic risk for children and adults respec-
tively. The results indicated that the ­HQchildren and ­HQadults
Fig. 6  Bi-plot showing safe and risk levels among various age classes were lower than a unit (HQ < 1) (Fig. 6). This suggests that
in the study area based on hazard quotient(HQ). HQ < 1—safe for children and adults exposed to this level of concentrations
drinking, HQ > 1—hazardous for drinking
of NO−3 –N recorded in the groundwater of the study area are
safe from non-carcinogenic risk hazards.
Epidemiological evidence submits that NO−3 –N expo-
sure is intensely correlated with numerous health condi-
tions, such as methemoglobinemia (blue baby syndrome) in
infants. This occurs as a result of a reduction in the ability of
blood to carry oxygen in babies below 6 months (Gulis et al
2002; Gao et al 2012; Maghanga et al 2013). Besides blue
baby syndrome, it has been observed that the oral ingestion
of water polluted with NO−3 –N may also lead to multiple
sclerosis, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, thyroid gland hypertro-
phy, mutagenesis, and teratogenesis, among other health
disorders in grownups, of which the severity depends on
the consumed dose (Wu et al 2017). In past investigations,
there have also been instances of gastric cancer, thyroid
issues, diabetes, and spontaneous miscarriages (Almasri
2007; Dan-Hassan et al 2012). Nursing mothers consuming
Fig. 7  Box plot showing the distribution of HQ for each exposure age water containing high loads of NO−3 –N, may considerably
group. ­HQinfants shows relatively much variation in its distribution
increase the quantity of NO−3 –N in breast milk. However,
there is inconclusive evidence of the occurrence of
Table 3  Variation of deterministic chronic risk assessment and blue-baby syndrome attributed to NO−3 –N in breast milk.
respective proportions for infants, children and adults Nevertheless, it may be advisable for nursing mothers
% of sample to eschew drinking water that has more than 10 mg∕L of
NO−3 –N in it (WDNRBDWG).4
Risk level HQ Chronic risk Infant Children Adults

1 < 0.1 Negligible 16.8 38.5 38.9 Stochastic risk assessment of HQ

2 ≥ 0.1 < 1 Low 46.0 61.0 61.5
3 ≥1<4 Medium 37.2 – – The embryonic stage in the MCS is to test the algorithm in
4 >4 High – – – step i and GMM was efficient at doing that. Figure 8 shows
the results of the MC simulation predicting the risk of
infants exposed to NO−3 –N concentration based on the iden-
Figures 6 and 7 show that there is much variation in H ­ Qinfants tified components (Fig. 4) and various confidence intervals
relative to H
­ Qchildren and H
­ Qadults. This is attributed to the (CI). The results show that the background concentration
body weight and the daily ingestion rate. In general, the HQ (first cluster) of the NO−3 –N predicted probability risk for
values were high for corresponding elevated NO−3 –N concen- CI (68.27%, 95.45% and 99.73%) ranges from 0.00 to 0.04.
tration, suggesting its major influence on HQ determination.
Table 3 shows the scale of chronic risk assessment used
by (Rahman et al 2020) and (Egbi et al 2020) and adopted 4
https://​www.​dhs.​wisco​nsin.​gov/​water/​index.​htm.

13
4548 Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555

Table 4  Comparative analysis HSS (%) NBL (%) HI (%)

of the methods used for health
risk of infant and the estimated Methods 1𝜎 2𝜎 3𝜎 1𝜎 2𝜎 3𝜎 1𝜎 2𝜎 3𝜎
error factor
MCS 0.07 0.12 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.16 0.31 0.39
DT 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37
Error 0.30 0.16 0.20 0.37 0.37 0.33 0.21 0.06 0.02
a
Deterministic approach
b
Hypothetical single source

Table 5  Comparative analysis NBL (%) HI (%)

HSS a (%)
of the methods used for
health risk of children and the Methods 1𝜎 2𝜎 3𝜎 1𝜎 2𝜎 3𝜎 1𝜎 2𝜎 3𝜎
estimated error factor
MCS 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.23 0.31
DT b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Error 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.23 0.31

Table 6  Comparative analysis HSS (%) NBL (%) HI (%)

of the methods used for health
risk of Adults and the estimated Methods 1𝜎 2𝜎 3𝜎 1𝜎 2𝜎 3𝜎 1𝜎 2𝜎 3𝜎
error factor
MCS 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.12 0.18 0.24
DT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Error 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.12 0.18 0.24

DT Deterministic approach, HSS hypothetical single source

Additionally, the human-induced (second cluster) NO−3 –N
concentration predicted a probability risk in the range of
0.16-−0.39 for the various CI. The predicted risk based on
random sampling for the observed combined NO−3 –N con-
centration, assuming it is from a hypothetical single source,
ranges from 0.07 to 0.17 for the same range of CI.
Figure 9 presents the results of the simulation predict-
ing the risk of NO−3 –N exposure for children based on the
various clusters and CI. The predicted probability of non-
carcinogenic risk from the first cluster (NBL) ranges from
0.03 to 0.07. The second cluster and the hypothetical single
distribution (assumed symmetric) also estimated a range of
0.15 to 0.31 and 0.02 to 0.05, respectively.
Figure 10 displays the results of the model predicting
the probability of non-carcinogenic risk of NO−3 exposure
to adults based on various components and CI. The risk
of adult exposure to concentration from the natural source
ranges from 0.03-−0.07. Additionally, the second compo-
nent (HI) and the hypothetical single distribution recorded
the probability ranges of risk of 0.12-−0.24 and 0.01-−
0.04, respectively. The data suggest that, comparatively, the
anthropogenic source of NO−3 –N has a greater non-carci-
nogenic health hazard for exposure groups than the natural
background and the hypothetical single sources. This is due
to the relatively high NO−3 –N concentration obtained in the
second cluster compared with the first.
A comparative assessment of health risk estimation
Using the MCS, Tables 4, 5, and 6 shows the range of prob-
ability risk values for the hypothetical single source (HSS),
NBL and HI sources for infants, children and adult respec-
tively for various intervals. The range of values for the natu-
ral background source concentration is generally low due to
the low NO−3 –N concentration from that source. Also, HSS
probability risk values for infants (0.07-−0.17) especially
for the purpose of this discussion, are too low compared to
the ones estimated by the segregated HI source (0.16-−0.39)
with an error margin of 0.09-−0.22. This observation is due
to the skewness of the probability distribution obtained from
the hypothetical single source, which was assumed to have a
normal distribution. The GMM identified two distributions
in the NO−3 –N dataset, making it far more challenging for the
HSS data set to accurately predict the health risk. This sug-
gests that when performing an MCS, employing a hypotheti-
cal symmetric distribution for an observed dataset without
taking into account the dataset’s morphology could lead to
erroneous risk characterization. The error margin (0.09-−
0.22) can be utilized as a corrective factor when MCS is
applied to a multi-modal data set without taking the mor-
phology of the distribution into account. Monte Carlo simu-
lation for risk characterization is extremely useful when the
observational data is symmetric. However, the distribution

13
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555
Fig. 8  Results of the Monte Carlo simulation predicting risk of
infants exposed to NO−3 –N based on the identified clusters and vari-
ous confidence intervals shaded in cyan (68.27%, 95.45%, and
99.73%). The first row (A, B and C) represents the risk in the NO−3 –N
exposure of natural background concentration (first cluster). The sec-
of the data set and sample size has a significant impact on
the efficiency of this strategy. In the majority of cases, outli-
ers are eliminated before using MCS in order to assume a
normal distribution status. This can only be achieved when
the number of outliers being removed is negligibly small
in relation to the total sample size. The MCS taking into
account HSS cannot be performed efficiently in areas where
data has a multi-modal distribution, such as the Densu basin.
It is more acceptable to use a mixture model technique, such
as the Gaussian and Gamma prior to MCS, which is much
more robust when dealing with a skewed multi-modal and
uni-modal data set. The study suggests that using MCS
techniques for health risk estimation is data-dependent. In
conclusion, the analysis of the morphology of the data set
to identify the distributions is the first step in estimating
the health risk of a chemical specie utilizing MCS. Since it
4549
ond row (D, E, and F) represents the risk exposure of human-induced
concentration (second cluster). The third row also exhibits the pre-
dicted risk based on the combined NO−3 –N distribution and various
confidence intervals
takes worst-case scenarios into account, this will provide a
better estimation.
The deterministic and stochastic risks indicate that infants
are the most susceptible to non-carcinogenic health risks,
which is due to their lower body weight. The deterministic
technique percentage risk assessment for all exposure groups
for CI 68% is high compared with that estimated by MCS,
which takes into account the worst-case scenario. While
the MC simulation, which took into account the worst-case
scenario for HI concentration, offered a credible estimate as
high as 31% for both children and adults, the probability of
exceeding the limit (HQ = 1) for the exposure groups of chil-
dren and adults was “null” for the deterministic approach.
With less data, the Monte Carlo simulation-based probabil-
istic approach can produce more thorough results and dis-
play the probability of various simulation values in a more
13
4550
Fig. 9  Results of the Monte Carlo simulation predicting risk of chil-
dren exposed to NO−3 –N based on the identified clusters and various
confidence intervals shaded in bisque (68.27%, 95.45%, and 99.73%).
The first row (A, B and C) represents the risk in the NO−3 –N exposure
of natural background concentration (first cluster). The Second row
comprehensible manner compared with the deterministic
approach. According to Rivera-Velasquez et al (2013), the
MC simulation technique can provide greater precision to
the risk estimation values within an interval with a specified
probability than the deterministic risk estimation method.
To provide visualization of the NO−3 –N concentration
and to identify safe and risk zones in the study area, an
inverse distance weighting (IDW) spatial model in GIS
software was used. This spatial distribution analysis was
conducted to delineate the health risk zones of NO−3 –N
exposure of infants, children and adults in the study
region. Figure 5 shows the spatial variation of the NO−3 –N
in the study area. Some of the samples with a high con-
centration of NO−3 –N from observation were partially due
to open wells which were located within 100 m of damp
sites (D4, D5, D6, D7, D31 and D34). These are shallow
13
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555
(D, E, and F) represents the risk exposure of human-induced concen-
tration (second cluster). The third row also exhibits the predicted risk
based on combined NO−3 –N distribution and various confidence inter-
vals
hand-dug wells, which are prone to anthropogenic activi-
ties. The very high NO−3 –N concentration located in the
Eastern part of the basin results from boreholes sunk in
swamp areas and in farming communities (D36, D42,
D86). Nitrogen fertilizer application is responsible for
such loads of NO−3 –N. Others were also located close to
wastewater channels (D45, D70, D71) and are attributed
to domestic waste effluent. However from Figs. 5 and 11,
relatively high NO−3 –N and its corresponding HQ levels
were located predominantly along the eastern flanks of
the study region notably the Akuapem South, Akuapem
North, and New Juaben Municipal. There were also some
packets of high HQ as well as high NO−3 –N in Upper West
Akim, Ayensuano and Suhum Municipal. The southern
and northern parts of the basin showed very low NO−3 –N
concentration corresponding to low HQ in all the age
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555
Fig. 10  Results of the Monte Carlo simulation predicting risk of
adults exposed to NO−3 –N based on the identified clusters and vari-
ous confidence intervals shaded in antiquewhite (68.27%, 95.45%,
and 99.73%). The first row (A, B and C) represents the risk in the
NO−3 –N exposure of natural background concentration (first cluster).
groups, suggesting a high correlation between HQ and
NO−3 –N. The results indicate that the non-carcinogenic risk
level of all the vulnerable populations varied in the order
of adults < children < infants. This suggests that infants
in some parts of the catchment are potentially exposed
to non-carcinogenic risks more than children and adults.
Similar results were obtained by other studies (Chen et al
2017; Adimalla 2019; He and Wu 2019). The lesser body
weight of infants situates them at higher health risks as
put forward by earlier scientists (Adimalla 2019; Adimalla
and Qian 2020; Aslani et al 2019; Chen et al 2017). Also,
the distinct biological features and behavioural traits of
infants put them at greater risk, because at this early stage
there is an increase in gastrointestinal absorption of certain
materials, which makes them more susceptible to external
pollutants.
4551
The second row (D, E, and F) represents the risk exposure of human-
induced concentration (second cluster). The third row also exhibits
the predicted risk based on combined NO−3 –N distribution and vari-
ous confidence intervals
Analysis of uncertainty
NO−3 –N loading and their associated non-carcinogenic health
risk assessments in the basin are recorded coupled with the
identification of health risk-prone zones and safe zones. This
notwithstanding, every risk evaluation has some degree of
uncertainty. A one-time water sample was taken for analysis
in this investigation. Seasonal fluctuations in groundwater
hydro-chemical concentrations had previously been reported
by researchers. Furthermore, despite rigorous adherence to
quality control methods during operation, there may be some
unavoidable errors during the data gathering and analysis
procedures. Every geographic interpolation approach has its
own set of restrictions, which might have an impact on the
spatial prediction of dangers and safe zones. In addition, due
to the lack of accurate data for the people of the research
13
4552
Fig. 11  Spatial map showing the variation in the risk zones for (A) infants (B) children and (C) adults
region, the parameters utilized in the HHRA model were
derived directly from USEPA reference values and earlier
work done in similar terrain. Finally, due to a lack of data,
the study only investigated drinking water channels for risk
assessments, ignoring other highly probable paths such as
dermal contact through swimming and bathing.
Despite these challenges, the study findings are useful
and significant. The findings agree with previous research in
similar terrains. This research will provide an initial assess-
ment of the basin’s groundwater ingestion health for the
basin. This research will help water managers, stakeholders,
13
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555
and policymakers better understand and manage groundwa-
ter resources in the study area.
Conclusion
The study evaluated the levels of NO−3 –N in groundwater
for domestic use and assessed the non-carcinogenic health
risk effects using USEPA human health risk assessment
models coupled with deterministic and probability assess-
ment techniques using the Monte Carlo model. This study
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (2023) 9:4539–4555
is a preliminary investigation of NO−3 –N hazards in the sub-
region using a probability health risk assessment model, of
this kind in an environment with multiple sources of ground-
water NO−3 –N. Based on a mixture model the study revealed
the morphology of the NO−3 –N distributions, which were
classified as NBL and human-induced sources. The follow-
ing conclusions were drawn from the study:
i. The deterministic technique evaluated the non-car-
cinogenic risk (HQ > 1) as a percentage to be 39%
(0.39) for infants and reported null values for both
children and adults, indicating that children and adults
are likely free from non-carcinogenic risk based on the
current NO−3 –N exposure.
ii. Assuming that there is just one source of NO−3 –N, the
Monte Carlo method predicted a likelihood risk that
ranged from 0.07 to 17, 0.02 to 05, and 0.01 to 0.04
for infants, children, and adults, respectively.
iii. For newborns, children, and adults, respectively, the
projected risk when taking into account multi-modal
sources of NO−3 –N exposure using the Monte Carlo
approach varies between 0.16 and 0.39, 0.15 to 0.31,
and 0.12 to 0.24. Additionally, the HSS concentra-
tion recorded a relatively low probability of risk, pre-
senting 0.07-−0.17, 0.02-−0.05, and 0.01-−0.04 for
infants, children, and adults respectively.
iv. The MC simulation based on multi-modal NO−3 –N
sources appear to have performed better compared to
the hypothetical single source and the deterministic
approach.
v. The study estimated an error margin of 0.09-−0.22,
especially for the infant group. When using Monte
Carlo simulation, this value can be used as a correc-
tion factor if the user is unable to initially determine
the morphology of the data set using the finite mixture
approach.
vi. The study suggests that the embryonic stage when
using the Monte Carlo simulation in risk assessment
is to identify the morphology of the data set using the
finite mixture models.
vii. Infants exposed to groundwater for ingestion around
the central portions of the basin (Akuapem North,
Akuapem South, New Juaben Municipal, Ayensuano
and Upper West Akim) are at a high risk of non-car-
cinogenic effects.
Non-carcinogenic impacts on infants in these hotspot zones
should be closely monitored. This study can be repro-
duced in other regions where anthropogenic activities have
impacted the water bodies.
Acknowledgements The authors thank the staff of the Ecological
Laboratory, UG, the Nuclear Chemistry, and Environmental Research
4553
Centre (NCERC) of the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission, and the
Carnegie Corporation of New York.
Funding This work was partially supported by the Building and New
Generation of Academics in Africa (BaNGA-Africa), through funds
provided by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
Data availability The datasets generated during and/or analysed during
the current study are not publicly available since is an on-going project
but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Declarations
Conflict of interest The authors declare no competing interests.
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