Machine Learning for Position Prediction and
Determination in Aerial Base Station System
Peize Zhao∗ , Xiao Liu† , Yuanwei Liu† , Yue Chen† and Kok Keong Chai†
∗ Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, China
† Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
Abstract—A novel framework for dynamic 3-D deployment
of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in the aerial base station
system (ABSS) that based on the machine learning algorithms is
proposed. In the framework, the UAV is deployed as an aerial
base station to serve a group of ground users and is placed
based on the prediction of the users’ mobility. The joint problem
of prediction of users’ track and 3-D deployment of the UAV
is formulated for maximizing the sum transmit rate. A two-step
approach is proposed for predicting the movement of users and
for determining the dynamic 3-D placement of the UAV. Firstly, an
echo state network (ESN) based prediction algorithm is utilized
for predicting the future positions of users based on the real-world
datasets collected from Twitter. Secondly, an iterative K-Means
based algorithm is proposed for obtaining the optimal placement
of UAV at each time slot based on the output of ESN model.
Numerical results are illustrated for showing the superiority
of the proposed algorithm over the prevalent algorithm on
prediction tasks. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed
framework are also investigated. Additionally, compared with
static placement of the UAV, the advantage of dynamic 3-D
deployment is demonstrated.
I. I NTRODUCTION
Integrating the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) into the
cellular networks is envisioned to be a promising technology
to significantly enhance the communication performance in
hotspots places such as sport stadiums and outdoor events.
Meanwhile, UAV is appropriate for replacing the existing
terrestrial communication infrastructure after natural disasters
as aerial base station [1].
Deploying UAV as aerial base station has received remark-
able attention both in the field of academia and industry. In
[2], a static placement of unmanned aerial vehicle base station
(UAV-BS) was proposed, which was able to maximize the
number of served ground users with the minimum transmit
power. The work in [3] probed the feasibility of the aerial
base station system (ABSS) application in after-earthquake
telecommunication recovery. And [4] developed a model to
maximize the revenue of the ABSS in next generation cellular
networks with a simple placement method. A similar method
was built in [5], in which authors not only decreased the
number of needed UAVs but also maintained the user coverage.
However, the prevalent researches mainly consider the static
deployment of UAV that assumes ground users only stay at the
same position, the influence of the movement of ground users
was simply ignored. According to the real-world scenarios,
978-1-5386-8088-9/19/$31.00 ©2019 IEEE
the served users are dynamic and the UAV-BS is expected to
adjust its position while the served crowd moves. Naturally,
the absence of consideration about users’ mobility incurs a
relatively lower performance within ABSS application. Mean-
while, in [2], [4] and [5], the performance of the UAV-BS
was only measured by the user coverage. In fact, the higher
coverage cannot directly induce the better service quality. In
this paper, the transmission rate, rather than the user coverage,
is invoked as the evaluation criterion.
Another limitation of the aforementioned researches is
datasets. Except in [5], the position information of the users
was generated by simulation program or even created ran-
domly. In another word, the authors assumed the users were
distributed dispersively on ground and there were no build-
ings or other obstacles around the served crowd. Since the
algorithm in this paper is designed for real-world scenarios
and to emulate the real scenarios as possible, the datasets
are supposed to cover real movement of a huge group of
users. To collect such data, some data collection methods were
investigated. In [6], the authors automatically gathered GPS
information of users, but the purpose of this study was focused
on making a road map, not suitable for the application of
ABSS. In another related research [7], the researchers used an
android application to collect the positions of their volunteers.
Such method is an impractical solution either, because the time
interval of the experiments in [7] was several weeks, while the
peak time of telecommunication service is usually scaled in
hours. After comparing above methods, we decide to collect
real-time information from tweets by Twitter API in this paper,
the data consists of GPS coordinates and recorded timestamps.
The accuracy of regression and prediction tasks have been
significantly improved based on boom of machine learning.
In order to keep the quality-of-service in ABSS network, the
machine learning based algorithms are exploited for positions
prediction and 3-D dynamic placement. To implement real-
world data and machine learning based framework with limited
computation resources on UAV-BS, the echo state network
(ESN) [8] model and iterative K-Means [9] algorithm are
exploited in this paper to predict users’ track and determine
positions of UAV.
The main contributions of this paper are summarized as
following:
• We originally consider the dynamic placement of UAV
 based on the mobility information of users for pursuing in the above equation, σ 2 = an (t)BN0 , N0 means the power
higher quality of service; spectral density of the additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN)
• We innovatively use real-world position information as at the receivers, an (t)B and pn (t) are the bandwidth and
datasets for predicting the movement of users; transmit power allocated to user un at time t, respectively.
• We creatively employ efficient and time-saving machine Therefore, the achievable instantaneous transmit rate of user
learning algorithms for solving the current problems. un at time t is expressed as
II. S YSTEM M ODEL

rn (t) = an (t)Blog2 1 + Γn (t) . (6)
We consider the downlink of UAV-assisted wireless com-
munication networks in this section. As illustrated in Fig. 1, Suppose that the service quality of ABSS requires each
the UAV is deployed as aerial BS to serve a group of users scheduled user to be satisfied with a minimum rate r0 . This
in a particular district when the ground BS is malfunctioned means that all users must have capacity greater than the rate
in nature disaster or overloaded in hot spots. The positions r0 . Then the optimization goal is formulated as
of the user un at time t is already known and denoted as Nu
un = [xn (t), yn (t)] and the number of users is Nu . The posi-
X
max Rsum = rn (t), s.t. rn (t) ≥ r0 . (7)
tion of the UAV at time t is denoted as p(t) = [px (t), py (t)]. n=1
Hence, the distance between UAV and user un at time t is
presented as In the proposed framework, we aim at dynamically deploy-
q ing the UAV (obtaining the optimal position of UAV at each
dn (t) = h2 + (px (t) − xn (t))2 + (py (t) − yn (t))2 , (1) time slot) for maximizing Rsum while satisfying the r0 of each
ground user.
in which h is the flight height of the UAV.
Therefore, the overall distance between UAV and all users
at time t is
Nu
UAV-BS
X
Dsum = dn (t). (2)
n=1
The UAV is enabled with frequency division multiple access
(FDMA) system to serve a group of ground users. And the
communication link between UAV and users is typically an air-
to-ground communication. Such communication occurs with
two main propagation groups, shown in Fig. 1: the first one is
that receivers favoring a Line-of-Sight (LoS) condition; and the
second corresponds to receivers with no Line-of-Sight (NLoS)
but via reflections and diffractions, this group of users still
receives coverage. As shown in Equation (3), the probability Malfunction ❗
of resulting LoS is given by ground BS Overloaded
ground BS
 180 b2
PLoS = b1 θn − ζ , (3)
π
where θn = sin−1 ( dnh(t) ) is the elevation angle between the Fig. 1. The simulation scene of UAV-BS, in this figure, the ground BS is
UAV and user un , b1 and b2 are constant values of environment overloaded or malfunctioned, and cannot provide telecommunication service.
impact. And ζ is another constant [10]. The problem is settled by UAV-BS. Note that both patterns of air-to-ground
communication propagation, LoS and NLoS, are depicted.
The channel power gain from the UAV to user un at time t
is denoted as
gn (t) = K0−1 d−2
n (t)[PLoS µLoS + PNLoS µNLoS ]
−1
, (4)
III. DYNAMIC P LACEMENT OF THE UAV
where K0 = ( 4πfc 2
c ) , while fc is the carrier frequency, and In this section, a two-step approach is introduced for pre-
c is the light speed, µLoS and µNLoS are attenuation factors diction the position information of ground users at each time
for LoS and NLoS links respectively and PNLoS is (1 − PLoS ) slot and achieving the dynamic movement of the UAV. Firstly,
[11]. the ESN based prediction algorithm is used for predicting
Generally, the received signal with signal-to-noise ratio
the movement track of ground users based on the real-world
(SNR) of user un at time t is described by
datasets collected from Twitter. Secondly, iterative K-Means
pn (t)gn (t) based deployment algorithm is exploited for deciding the
Γn (t) = , (5)
σ2 position of the UAV at each time slot.
A. Data Collection The recurrent neural network (RNN) is a popular method for
As mentioned, the datasets for this paper are gathered from forecasting task [13]. However, to increase the performance of
Twitter. When people post tweets, their GPS coordinates are the RNN, backpropagation (BP) is one of the most indispens-
recorded and legally visible. The chosen zone for data collect- able methods in neural network training. And BP consumes
ing is the Oxford Street area, where is known as the busiest plenty of computational resources. As consequence, to save
district in the London city, and the durations of collection were on computation cost, this paper selects ESN model [8] for
set to be in the afternoon of 14th, March 2018 in daytime predicting the users’ traces. The structure of ESN model is
dataset and in the early morning of 15th, March 2018 in drawn in Fig. 3.
nighttime dataset.
In the experiments, more than 10,000 pieces of informa- Win W Wout
tion are gathered from Twitter, and the dimension of the
data is four: user number, latitude distance from the Ox-
ford Street, longitude distance from the Oxford Street and
time information respectively. The notation of the dataset is
U = [u1 , u2 , . . . , uNu ].
The initial positions of ground users in daytime dataset
are marked in Fig. 2 with Google Map, the positions were
distributed around the five-pointed star i.e. the Oxford Street.
Most of users were concentrated in the streets and malls,
the fact proves that the collected data reflects the real-world Input Layer Reservoir Pool Output Layer
condition and achieves the purpose.
Fig. 3. The structure of ESN model, which is consists of three parts, including
input layer, reservoir pool and output layer.

In the ESN model, the core part is reservoir pool, which

makes the whole network has memory of previous inputs by
the recurrent connected cells in the pool. With this pool, ESN
provides a supervised learning principle like RNN algorithm,
and the cells are sparsely connected, thus the information
can echo in the pool and ESN model is capable of short-
term forecasting tasks. Meanwhile, the sparsity also decreases
the problem of over-fitting. Besides, since only trainable part
is the readout from the pool [14], the BP algorithm is not
helpful, therefore the model is cost-efficient. Though ESN
model costs few computation resources, it surprisingly yields
Fig. 2. The initial positions of users in daytime. The red five-pointed star is
the Oxford Street. excellent performance on the demanding tasks [15], [16].
The ESN model is approximately understood as a function,
B. Positions Prediction of Users whose input is the vector U = [u1 , u2 , . . . , uNu ] and output is
Y = [y1 , y2 , . . . , yNy ]. As shown in Fig. 3, basic ESN model
1) Regression Method: The learning process of prediction
is mainly consists of three layers, the Win and Wout are the
is a process of regression, this paper uses a variant of usual
connections between three layers, presented as matrices. The
and light regression method in co-linear data analysis, called
W is another matrix that presents the connections between
ridge regression. The target function of the regression function
the neurons in reservoir pool. Every segment is fixed once
is
N  P P
the whole network is established, except Wout , the output of
2 X
X X the reservoir pool. The task of the ESN model is to learn a
Λ= yitarget − prediction
βj yij + βj2 , (8)
mathematical presentation to minimize the error by making Y
i=1 j=1 j=1
matches to Y target as well as possible.
in this equation, β is the weight matrix with size (N × P ). 3) Parameters in the Reservoir: Reservoir is a sparse
2) Model Description: Machine learning prediction algo- network, consists of sparsely connected neurons, which has
rithms are currently popular for prediction tasks. Unlike the short-term memory on previous states and is the core part of
traditional methods, the machine learning prediction algo- ESN [14]. In reservoir pool, the typical update equations are
rithms aim at building a neural network model and relies on
curriculum learning methods rather than statistical methods
 
x̃(t) = tanh Win · un + Win · x(t − 1) , (9)
[12].
 x(t) = (1 − α)x(t − 1) + αx̃(t), (10)
where x̃(t) is an intermediate variable, x(t) is the state of the
reservoir pool at time t, tanh(·) is the activation function of
reservoir neurons and α is leaking rate.
Here are four parameters involved to define a reservoir pool.
Following are those details, proceeded in order:
• Size of Pool: it is the number of neurons in the reservoir
pool. The larger, the more precise. This is the most critical
parameter of the pool, denoted as Nx .
In the experiments, several different sizes of the pool are
tried, to find the ESN model with the appropriate size and
meets the requirements.
• Sparsity: it reveals the degree of the connections between
neurons in the reservoir, every neuron does not connect
with all others.
More connections only give a bit of performance pro-
motion in our experiments. And for lower complexity of
ESN model, a small sparsity is elected.
• Distribution of Nonzero Elements: the matrix W , which
is typically generated as a sparse network. The distribu-
tion makes effects on the performance of the ESN model.
By analyzing the data, this paper uses uniform distribution
for its continuity of values and boundedness, which
gives the best performance comparing to other kinds of
distributions.
• Spectral Radius of W : it is eigenvalue of the matrix
W , with the largest absolute value among all. It scales
the matrix W , in another word, scales the width of the
distribution of the nonzero elements.
After data echoes in the pool, it flows to output layer, which
is defined as
 cluster C to minimize Dsum with input. Then find and fly


yn = tanh Wout un · x(t) , (11)
where yn stands for network outputs.
With ESN model, the proposed framework easily obtains
predictions of ground users’ positions with low computational
costs. The accuracy of predictions and the efficiency are
illustrated in Section IV.
C. Dynamic Placement of the UAV
In this part, we firstly exploited an iterative K-Means based
algorithm for obtaining the dynamic deployment of the UAV.
And to the best knowledge of ours, the dynamic UAV-BS
in ABSS application is originally considered in this paper,
it is intuitive that dynamic placement of UAV is capable of
improving the performance than the static UAV.
Iterative K-Means is an improved version of K-Means
algorithm [9], the algorithm calculates a new weight for each
variable based on the former variance with cluster distances.
And the new weight is used to produce the new cluster
members from datasets in the next iteration. With iterative
K-Means algorithm, position C, the center of the current
user cluster is found. And by the definition of iterative K-
Means algorithm, C is the point that minimizes Dsum . Since
the overall transmit rate is not only decided by Dsum but
also affected by environment conditions, after obtaining the
position C by iterative K-Means algorithm, the UAV starts
traversal search for the optimal position P to maximize Rsum
with 10m as radium around C and 0.2m as step length. In
this case, the optimal position P of the UAV is obtained,
and in the experiments, the performance of UAV-BS at P is
always better than it is at C. Note that the flight height is
also an influential fact of the performance in ABSS, and the
differences on transmit rate with various flight altitudes are
compared in the next section.
Since the users are continuously moving during the working
period of the UAV, the UAV is supposed to travel in advance,
based on the position information of the users. During the pro-
cess of the proposed framework, iterative K-Means algorithm
is invoked for obtaining the optimal position of the UAV with
the input as the prediction result from ESN model at each time
slot.
The process of above two steps for prediction and deploy-
ment is concisely given in Algorithm 1.
Algorithm 1 Iterative algorithm for UAV positions determi-
nation
Input: The number of users: Nu , and the position information
of each user: U = [u1 , u2 , . . . , uNu ]T
1: Exploit ESN algorithm to predict users’ positions in the
next time slot with the current position information, and
take the prediction as input of iterative K-Means algorithm
periodically.
2: Use iterative K-Means algorithm to find the center of user
to the optimal position P to maximize the overall transmit
rate Rsum by traversal research around C.
3: Update the position of UAV for next time slot by repeating
Step 1) and Step 2) until ground BS is competent for the
demand of telecommunication services.
Output: The optimal position to maximize Rsum : P
IV. N UMERICAL R ESULTS
In this section, numerical results are presented for the
performance promotion of the proposed machine learning
based framework. Considering the features and amounts of the
datasets, the ESN model is customized in experiments that the
sparsity of reservoir pool is assumed to be 5%; the leaking rate
is set as α = 0.2. Two baselines are exploited to compare with
the ESN model. The first one is historical average (HA), the
prediction of HA is based on average value of last four time
slots. And the second one is long short term memory (LSTM)
model [13], a prevalent variant of RNN model on forecasting
tasks. The LSTM model is built by two hidden layers in the
experiments, each contains 128 units, with dropout value as
0.5 and L2 weight decay as 5e−4 . The LSTM is trained with
batch size 64 and learning rate 1e−3 , the epoch number is 80
on both datasets.
The forecasting algorithms are evaluated by three popularly
used metrics in forecasting field, including:
(1) Mean absolute error (MAE)
Ny
In the figure, the red lines are the real distance from the
Oxford Street of a certain user in both latitude direction
and longitude direction, and the lines of other colors are the
prediction outputs of ESN with different sizes pool and LSTM
algorithm. In the procedure of experiments, three different
sizes of reservoir pool are used as 100, 500 and 1,000. From
the Fig. 4, the differences between Nx = 500 and Nx = 1, 000
1 X  are minute, while the errors between Nx = 100 and others
MAE(yn , yntarget ) yn − yntarget ,

=
Ny n=1 are obvious, especially in the first half part of the prediction.
And the prediction of LSTM is the most accurate among all,
(2) Root mean squared error (RMSE) however, with the consideration of time costs in Table I, the
v
u
u 1 X Ny computational costs of the ESN with Nx = 1, 000 and LSTM

2
target
RMSE(yn , yn )=t yn − yntarget , are relative high. With compromise on accuracy and time
Ny n=1 consuming, this paper takes Nx = 500 as the best choice,
the choice is changeable depending on different requirements
(3) Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
in ABSS network.
Ny
1 X  yn − yntarget 
MAPE(yn , yntarget ) = TABLE II
Ny n=1 yn
 .
P ERFORMANCE C OMPARISON BETWEEN ESN AND BASELINES .

Note that the comparison across different datasets are in- Metric HA ESN500 LSTM
valid, since all the three metrics are scale-dependent. Besides, MAE 41.78 25.17 24.82

Daytime
RMSE 69.81 43.52 42.93
the time cost is also recorded to reflect the computation MAPE 15.9% 10.7% 10.2%
efficiency. All the experiments in this section are completed Time 161 ms 2078 ms
with Intelr CORE 7700HQ.
Nighttime
MAE 28.83 19.45 17.64
RMSE 45.23 29.19 28.76
MAPE 12.5% 8.99% 8.67%
Time 124 ms 1548 ms

Table II illustrates the performance comparison between

ESN and HA and LSTM on both daytime dataset and nighttime
dataset. Note that the time cost of HA is so short that can
be ignored. The performances of ESN and LSTM outperform
HA, and the performance of ESN reaches more than 90% of
the performance of LSTM, however the time cost of LSTM
is over 13 times of it of ESN. This fact shows the superiority
of the ESN model on accurate and efficiency. By the analysis
of the two datasets, since the daytime one is more complex
than another, the following experiments use daytime dataset
as default.
Fig. 4. The difference between real tracks and predictions of a user in daytime. Table III illustrates the trajectory of UAV in the duration
The upper set of lines is the real value and predictions of distance from Oxford
Street in latitude direction, and the lower set is in longitude direction of 3,000 seconds with time window as 200 seconds, each
placement of UAV is determined by iterative K-Means algo-
rithm with the prediction values from ESN model. Note that to
represent the position of UAV-BS, we build a coordinate that
TABLE I
T IME C OST C OMPARISON BETWEEN D IFFERENT S IZE ESN AND LSTM.
takes the Oxford Street as the origin, longitude direction and
latitude direction as x-axis and y-axis respectively. Note that
Method ESN100 a ESN500 a ESN1000 a LSTM since the served crowd moves, the overall distance between
Time 14 ms 161 ms 737 ms 2078 ms the UAV and users, Dsum , is growing. And the growth of Dsum
a The subscript is the size of the reservoir pool.
leads increment of the UAV flight distance between each step,
which is also reflected in Table III.
Fig. 4 shows the disparity between real tracks and prediction Fig. 5 expresses the improvement of the proposed frame-
results by different size ESN model and LSTM algorithm work on transmit rate, comparing with the static UAV-BS
on daytime dataset. And Table I is the comparison on time that provides services and just stays at the initial position.
cost between ESN with different sizes and LSTM model. The influence of flight height is also presented in Fig. 5. As
 TABLE III
T HE M OVING T RACK OF UAV-BS IN THE D URATION
Time (s) 0 200 400
Position (m)b (775.5,-662.1) (697.5,-636.9) (663.0,-617.6)
Time (s) 1600 1800 2000
Position (m)b (620.0,-534.3) (645.7,-527.2) (638.8,-521.0)
b The position is denoted in form of coordinate distance, whose origin is the Oxford Street.
Fig. 5. The improvement of the dynamic placement of UAV on transmit rate.
Comparing the two sets of lines, the dynamic methods surpasses the static
placement by a large margin.
demonstrated, both static and dynamic scenarios are simulated,
and different flight heights of UAV are considered. To avoid
skyscrapers in metropolis and investigate the effects of the
flight height, experiments are tested with two altitudes. And
result shows that the lower UAV flies, the more promotion this
framework brings. Regarding with the local geographic feature
in ABSS application, the flight height is adaptively changeable.
Besides, the overall distance Dsum between the served crowd
and UAV is going further in the daytime dataset, therefore, the
transmit rates in the experiments get lower in the latter half.
V. C ONCLUSION
The prediction of users’ position information and dynamic
3-D deployment of UAV for maintaining high quality of
service were jointly probed in this paper. Two steps were
provided to tackle the crucial problem in ABSS. Real datasets
of ground users’ position information were collected from
Twitter and ESN based prediction algorithm was exploited
to forecast the future positions of users. Iterative K-Means
algorithm was invoked to obtain the optimal position of UAV at
each time slot. It was demonstrated that the proposed algorithm
was able to predict the movement of users with a praiseworthy
accuracy and relative low computation source. Additionally, re-
deploying UAV based on the movement of ground users was an
effective method to maintain high quality of service from UAV
OF 3,000 S .
600 800 1000 1200 1400
(638.1,-597.7) (670.2,-584.5) (626.1,-580.0) (634.3,-560.3) (623.9,-545.8)
2200 2400 2600 2800 3000
(622.6,-516.6) (617.0,-511.1) (618.8,-501.9) (608.4,-492.0) (605.7,-487.5)
to users. The results were able to provide practical guidelines
for the placement strategy of UAV in different scenarios to
satisfy ground users’ service requirements.
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